Changes to French households car budget since 1990 1

No. 14 April 2013 Network Support Department Communications, Planning and Economic Monitoring Sub-Directorate Economic and Price Monitoring Bureau Changes to French households car budget since 1990 1 Pierre-Edouard Visse 2 Consumer spending on cars in France jumped 64% from 80 billion to over 131 billion between 1990 and 2010. The average annual car budget of French households was 5,700, 22% more than 20 years previously. Over the same period, annual vehicle-use expenditure (fuel, maintenance repairs, parts and other services) grew from 2,700 to 3,880. According to Drivepad, the French passenger car population exceeded the 33 million mark in 2010. People need to be mobile and the number of car-owner households is constantly on the rise. Those on low incomes can more easily buy cars as second-hand vehicles are more durable and affordable low cost cars have entered the market. The Automobile Club Association (ACA) stresses that sudden increases in the price of fuel, which is already heavily taxed, are highly prejudicial to some consumers. In 2011, a full tank of petrol (50 litres) only cost 32 for the fuel itself (with distributor margins accounting for less than a tenth) whilst the pump price was 75 ( 43 in taxes on top of the price charged by fuel distributors). 1 According to a December 2011 survey by Drivepad and the Automobile Club Association (June 2012). DrivePad.fr is a comprehensive car maintenance information website (www.drivepad.fr) that individuals can use free of charge. 2 Research officer with the Economic and Price Monitoring Bureau, pierre-edouard.visse@dgccrf.finances.gouv.fr 1

I) Macroeconomic context Drivepad s figures suggest that car-related consumer expenditure leapt from 80 billion to 131 billion between 1990 and 2010. All car-use expenditure rose sharply during that period. The increase in annual expenditure was very significant between 1990 and 2000 (from 2,701 to 3,413, up 2.4% per year on average) but more tempered between 2000 and 2010 (from 3,413 to 3,879, up 1.3% per year in average). A close look at a breakdown of this expenditure shows fluctuations of between 30% and 80%. Spending on maintenance, repairs, tolls and taxes was 44% more whereas households spent less of their budget on buying their car (new or second-hand). From 1990 to 1998, car owners used their cars more and more. Spending on fuel as part of total household consumption expenditure grew at a time when fuel prices were relatively stable and total household consumption expenditure was on the rise. After 1998, the trend was for fuel price increases in the long term and spending on fuel as a percentage of total consumer expenditure followed suit. From this one could assume that car use levelled off or even diminished (see table p. 4). Changes in fuel prices and spending on fuel as part of household consumption expenditure since 1990 4.3% 3.8% 3.3% 2.8% 2.3% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Index 100 in 1998 Spending on lead-free petrol and diesel as a % of total household consumption expenditure (left-hand scale) Change in fuel prices (right-hand scale) Source: Insee, March 2013 In 1990, car-owner households spent an average of 4,717 per year on their car according to Drivepad. This figure had risen to 5,753 by 2010 accounting for 9.4% of the household budget. This percentage was 1% and 1.7% less than in 2000 and 1990 respectively. 2

Average budget of a car-owner household, 1990-2010 (in euros inclusive of taxes) CAR-RELATED EXPENDITURE per CAR- OWNER HOUSEHOLD* VEHICLE ACQUISITION (new and second-hand) CAR-USE EXPENDITURE - servicing, repairs, spare parts & accessories of which car maintenance services - fuel and lubricants - tolls, parking, hire, driving schools 1990 2000 2009 2010 Change 1990/2000 Change 2000/2010 Change 20 years 4,717 5,256 5,577 5,753 11.4% 6.1% 22.0% 1,781 1,632 1,650 1,624-8% -1% -9% 2,701 1,161 487 1,275 265 3,413 1,432 539 1,596 385 3,687 1,748 609 1,468 471 3,879 1,786 623 1,619 474 26% 23% 11% 25% 45% 14% 25% 16% 1% 23% CAR INSURANCE 235 210 240 250-10% 19% 7% TAXES (VAT, TIPP (domestic tax 1,667 1,957 1,836 1,775 17% -9% 6% on petroleum products), etc.) Source: Insee restated by DrivePad.fr, December 2011 * This line is the total of vehicle acquisition, car-use expenditure and car insurance. 44% 54% 28% 27% 79% Again according to Drivepad, between 1990 and 2010, spending on vehicle acquisition as part of the household budget was down from 4.1% to 2.6%. At the same time, spending on maintenance increased between 1990 and 2000 before levelling off (see table below). Percentage of household budget 1990 2000 2009 2010 VEHICLE ACQUISITION (new and second-hand) 4.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.6 % of which new cars 3.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8 % CAR-USE EXPENDITURE 6.2% 6.6% 5.9% 6.2 % - servicing, repairs, spare parts & accessories 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8 % of which car maintenance services 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0 % - fuel and lubricants 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6 % - tolls, parking, hire, driving schools 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8 % CAR INSURANCE 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4 % PERCENTAGE OF SPENDING ON CARS AS PART OF HOUSEHOLDS BUDGETS 11.1% 10.4% 9.3% 9.4 % Source: Insee restated by DrivePad.fr, December 2011 3

II) Changes in behaviour and habits The French automotive landscape shifted between 1980 and 2010. At the end of the period, 83% of households were car owners with more than 30% owning more than one car. In 1980, the figures were 70.8% and 14.8% respectively. The Drivepad survey firstly shows that the car population aged from less than six years on average in 1990 to eight years in 2010 and, secondly, that average annual mileage fell during the period. French car population, 1980-2010 1980 1990 2009 2010 Car-owner households % 70.8 76.8 83.2 83.5 One-car households % 54.3 50.5 47.5 47.6 Two-car households % 14.8 23.0 30.5 30.7 Average car age year nd 5.9 8.0 8.0 Average ownership period year nd 3.7 4.9 5.0 Private second-hand cars % nd 50.0 59.6 58.9 Total average annual mileage km 12,200 13,041 11,793 11,755 Source: CCFA/Insee restated by Drivepad.fr, December 2011 To sum up, the French are keeping their cars longer, are doing less mileage and are cutting back on car-use expenditure. Car population owned or at the disposal of households 1980 1990 2009 2010 Total car population (millions) 16.7 23.0 33.2 33.6 Average mileage on the clock (km) nd 69,500 107,730 103,470 Households using their car almost on a daily basis (%) nd 75.1 72.1 71.8 Commuting (%) nd 55.4 53.7 53.7 Source: Drivepad.fr, December 2011 As households are keeping their cars longer, average mileage has risen sharply. III) Consumer complaints about service stations between 2008 and 2012 The DGCCRF s register shows that consumer complaints (in the French départements and via the 3939 consumer information line) fell substantially between 2008 and 2009. Since then, the figures have fluctuated but remained lower in 2012 (207 complaints) compared to 2008 (244). 62% of complaints are in three areas: lack of information on prices for consumers, misleading commercial practices and consumer deception. 4

Number of complaints about service stations, 2008-2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 244 163 206 166 207 Source: DGCCRF consumer complaints register, March 2013 IV) Change in the cost of car-related consumption items since 1998 Price increases between 1998 and 2012 cars and others 100% 95% 90% 80% 77% 70% 60% 50% 40% 50% 39% 30% 26% 20% 10% 14% 10% 8% 0% fuel repairs servicing spare parts and accessories for private vehicles headline inflation (CPI) new car second-hand car car insurance Source: Insee DGCCRF calculations, March 2013 From January 1998 to February 2013, price increases for cars and car insurance were well below the increase in headline inflation whilst the cost of repairs spiralled and fuel prices almost doubled. Eric Bataille of DrivePad.fr comments that Overall, households are spending less on cars. That said, the cost of servicing and repairs, fuel, taxes and, to a lesser extent, tolls and fines, is rising sharply. As a result, people are driving less, having less servicing and mandatory roadworthiness tests carried out, to the detriment of safety 5

Price increases between 1998 and 2012 cars and related expenditure Change between 1998 and 2012 Average annual growth rate between 1998 and 2012 Gap with inflation rate Fuel 95% 4.9% 3.2% Repairs 77% 4.2% 2.5% Servicing 50% 2.9% 1.3% Spare parts and accessories for private vehicles 39% 2.4% 0.7% Headline inflation (CPI) 26% 1.7% 0.0% New car 14% 1.0% -0.7% Second-hand car 10% 0.7% -1.0% Car insurance 8% 0.5% -1.1% Average 40% 2.3% 0.6% Source: Insee DGCCRF, calculations, May 2013 The above table compares the growth in prices of various car-related items with the headline inflation rate (CPI). Between 1998 and 2012, fuel prices rose by an average 3.2% more than the rate of headline inflation (based on annual growth rates) while car insurance prices grew on average 1.1% below that rate. The average gap was 0.6%. V) Main ramifications: an ageing and less well maintained car population Drivepad estimates that a fifth of cars on the roads in France are at least four months late for their mandatory roadworthiness test (contrôle technique). Autovision reports that this figure may be up to two years in large cities and that, on average, vehicles have their first test at 53 months (instead of 48) and subsequent tests at 28 month intervals (instead of 24). Some motorists quite simply forget the date whilst others are concerned that their vehicle will fail the roadworthiness test and that they will have to pay for repairs. 6

Breakdown of the car population (source: SRA restated by DrivePad) Between 10 and 15 years old 22% Over 15 years old 12% < 5 years old 34% Between 5 and 10 years old 32% Two thirds of the French car population is less than 10 years old, with around half of these vehicles being less than 5 years old. For the rest, 22% are between 10 and 15 years old and 12% over 15. VI) Benchmark of four motorist profiles (source : ACA) Low mileage: Renault Clio III 1.2 l TCE Expression Clim 6 Hp - petrol engine Condition: new Sold after four years Annual mileage in 2011: 9,022 km Small budget: Renault Clio III 1.4 l Dynamique 6 Hp petrol engine Condition: four-year old second-hand vehicle (38,000 kms) Sold on when eight years old Annual mileage in 2011: 9,022 km Average mileage: Peugeot 308 1.6 l HDI 92 Access FAP 5 Hp diesel engine Condition: new Sold after four years Annual mileage in 2011: 15,476 km Low cost vehicle: Dacia Logan 1.5 l dci 75 Silver Line 4 Hp diesel engine Condition: new Sold after four years Annual mileage in 2011: 9,022 km Source: ACA, June 2012 Looking at the cost of buying a car less any trade in, the second-hand Renault Clio is the cheapest of the four cars for French consumers, costing 846 per year for 9,022 km. The Dacia Logan costs twice as much ( 1,562), the new Renault Clio three times as much ( 2,776) and the Peugeot 308 almost four times as much ( 3,165). In mitigation, the last figure is for 15,476 km. 7

Over an entire year of use, in terms of total car budget, the gap closes. The figure for the Peugeot 308 ( 7,654) is three (and not four) times more than for the second-hand Renault Clio ( 2,637) for 72% more mileage. The fuel budget is around 900 for both these vehicles, which are at opposite ends of the benchmark. A modern diesel engine consumes less fuel than a traditional petrol engine. From new, servicing diesel vehicles is more expensive and, with our examples, the Peugeot 308 costs twice as much as the new Renault Clio. However, here again, the cost is for annual mileage of 15,000 km as opposed to 9,000 km. The new Renault Clio will cost 0.66 per kilometre whilst owners of the Dacia Logan (low mileage) and Peugeot 308 (average mileage) will pay just under 0.50 as diesel engines consume less fuel. The second-hand Renault Clio comes out cheaper for all expenditure items except fuel and will cost less than 0.30 per kilometre. Taxes account for a third of this figure compared to a quarter for the three new cars. In Secondhand Renault Clio New Renault Clio Dacia Logan diesel Peugeot 308 diesel Annual mileage 9,022 9,022 9,022 15,476 Purchase cost less trade in (per year) 846 2,776 1,562 3,165 Financial costs 51 342 227 507 Insurance 194 592 572 724 Fuel 892 786 566 930 Servicing 523 737 809 1,461 Garaging 0 558 558 558 Tolls 131 185 185 309 Total inclusive of taxes 2,637 5,976 4,476 7,654 Cost per km 0.292 0.662 0.496 0.495 Total exclusive of taxes 1,683 4,448 3,347 5,767 Taxes 954 1,528 1,132 1,887 Percentage of taxes 36.2% 25.6% 25.3% 24.7% Tax rate 56.7% 34.4% 33.8% 32.7% Source: ACA, June 2012 8

Asymmetric information Georges Akerlof devoted much of his research into market failure to the issue of asymmetric information which is commonplace on markets. This means that one party to a deal has private information that he keeps from the other. Possible examples are a borrower being more aware of his ability to repay than the lender and a policyholder being better able to assess potential risk than the insurer. Akerlof used the example of the second-hand car market on which the seller is much more aware of the condition of his car than the buyer. His 1970 paper called The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism poses the following question: why are well cared-for cars with low mileage worth so little on the second-hand market? The paper explains that to take account of possible hidden defects affecting poor quality cars ( lemons ), buyers offer deliberately low prices. As they are not happy with the prices offered, owners of good cars withdraw from the market leaving only the lemons. There is a phenomenon of adverse selection or anti selection with bad cars driving out good cars from the market. Information asymmetry causes an imbalance of power in transactions. Source: http://www.economie.gouv.fr/facileco/georges-akerlof The fuel effect In the last twenty-five years, advances in engine technology have helped reduce fuel consumption. To buy the same full tank of diesel, you now have to work 25% less hours at French minimum wage (SMIC) rate. In real terms, this means that fuel budgets have dipped by 1% per year since 1985 although this change is scarcely felt by consumers. Neither the oil producing countries, nor law-makers, who are quite happy to carry forward taxes on petroleum products from year to year, are responsible for this gain it is down to efforts made by motorists. Over the same period, an additional 10% of households have been able to buy cars. As these are the most low-income households, they have to use their savings and make sacrifices to both own a car and for its upkeep. In France, between 2009 and 2012, the price of diesel soared by 39% and 95-octane unleaded petrol by 29% and this is putting extra pressure on these households. The Economic and Price Monitoring Bureau (1B) of the DGCCRF (Directorate General for Competition Policy, Consumer Affairs and Fraud Control) establishes and introduces measures to bolster economic transparency of the manufacturing and marketing processes for goods and services. This means that it is able to base its analyses in this area on objective and common factors. Its work involves price analysis and monitoring formation mechanisms for prices and margins, in conjunction with other relevant monitoring centres. It also produces economic studies for the Directorate and is tasked with its in-house documentation and economic monitoring responsibilities. Lastly, it carries out statistical analyses of the consumer complaints register. Address: Ministère de l économie et des finances - DGCCRF Bureau de la veille économique et des prix (1B) Teledoc 052 59 boulevard Vincent Auriol 75703 PARIS CEDEX 13 FRANCE Email: Bureau-1B@dgccrf.finances.gouv.fr 9