The challenges of using mainframes Racepoint Micro Focus Mainframe research results February 2014 1
Demographics 590 senior IT decision-makers in organisations with mainframes in their infrastructure were interviewed in September and October 2013, split in the following ways... in organisations of 500+ employees a range of private sector organisations a range of American, European, and Asian countries 215 171 Manufacturing IT & software Retail, distribution and transport 113 108 120 100 50 25 15 100 100 Financial services 106 204 Business & professional services 46 100 100 501-1000 employees 1001-3000 employees More than 3000 employees Media, leisure & entertainment Other commercial sector 23 74 UK France Brazil Singapore USA Germany Australia/New Zealand Hong Kong Figure 1: Analysis of size of organisations organisation Figure 2: Within which sector is your organisation? Figure 3: Analysis of location of respondents organisation 2
Four areas of interest: 1: IT debt 2: Modernisation 3: Skills shortage 4: Mobile and cloud 3
1: IT debt 4
IT debt on the mainframe is increasing 40% An average of $11m of IT debt is currently located on organisation s mainframes 31% 34% 29% an increase from $8.5m on average in 2012 Organisations have not modernised their mainframe applications over the past year. On average, they have let their mainframe applications get even more out of date 15% 17% suggesting that many are not maintaining their mainframe applications, let alone overhauling them 6% 1% Less than $5m $5m-$10m $10m-$20m More than $20m 2012 2013 Is this indicative of organisations IT debt as a whole? Figure 4: 5 Analysis of how much would need to be spent to bring the mainframe enterprise application portfolio up-todate; comparison of 2012 and 2013 research (590 respondents each year)
Mainframes are likely to represent most of an organisation s IT debt The average of $11m of mainframe debt is over half of the average total of $18m of debt $24.75 In essence, the mainframe is likely to hold the majority of the out-of-date software in an organisation $18.13 $18.56 This is particularly the case in smaller organisations, where almost all the IT debt is located on the mainframe $10.97 $13.69 $10.86 As the rate of out-of-date software on the mainframe becomes increasingly expensive to update, this is likely to be a problem that gets worse unless it is addressed quickly $9.14 $7.56 Total 501-1000 employees 1001-3000 employees More than 3000 employees Will IT debt continue to grow? Average current IT debt (in million dollars) Average IT debt located on the mainframe (in million dollars) 6 Figure 5: Current entire enterprise IT debt vs current IT debt located on the mainframe, analysed by size of organisation
IT debt is predicted to increase 35% 30% Only a small minority say that their IT debt will not grow over the next five years 25% 20% only around 5% of the total say that their IT debt will not grow, meaning that 95% predict that this problem will get worse 15% 10% 5% On average, the debt is predicted to grow by 9% over the next five years This gives further weight to the need to update applications now or risk the cost being more prohibitive later 0% Total 0% 1-5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% More than 20% 501-1000 employees 1001-3000 employees More than 3000 employees Are organisations actively modernising their applications? Figure 6: By how much do you expect your IT debt to grow over the next five years?, analysed by size of organisation 7
2: Modernisation 8
Mainframes are not obsolete yet Only 11% expect to use mainframes for another five years or less 2% 2% 11% On average, respondents expect their organisations to continue to rely on mainframe applications for 10 years 30% 32% believe that they will still be using mainframes beyond 10 years time Although mainframes are a legacy technology, most organisations that use them intend to keep using them for the immediate future 55% Given this prolonged use, are organisations able to justify mainframe expenditure? Fewer than five years Ten-twenty years Don't know Five-ten years More than twenty years Figure 7: How many more years do you think your organisation will continue to rely on mainframe applications? 9
Difficulty in justifying the cost of mainframe app maintenance Nearly impossible - Internal stakeholders are simply not interested in anything that doesn't deliver an immediate and direct financial benefit or cutting-edge innovation Extremely difficult - It is difficult to convince internal stakeholders on anything that doesn't deliver an immediate and direct financial benefit or cutting-edge innovation Quite difficult - We have to undertake a lot of due diligence to prove the business case and resulting benefits 9% 31% 42% Only 19% say that it is not difficult to justify spend on maintaining mainframe applications Organisations have to undertake a lot of due diligence and spend a lot of time convincing internal stakeholders of the need to update Many say that updating is difficult to argue for as it does not offer a new innovation or an immediate financial benefit In fact, almost one in ten respondents say that it is nearly impossible to justify the cost of updating mainframe applications Not difficult at all 19% This may partly explain why IT debt on the mainframe is increasing so dramatically What is the impact of not being to justify the cost of updating? Figure 8: How difficult is it to justify expenditure on the maintenance of legacy mainframe applications? 10
Not updating mainframe apps has significant ramifications Only 10% of those who encounter resistance are always able to eventually justify the cost Our business is exposed to compliance/risk issues 63% Almost two thirds (63%) say that their organisation is exposed to compliance/risk issues and almost half say that the resilience of their mainframe is put at risk It is not just a problem of risk and resilience though 42% say that a lack of mainframe application maintenance means that they are unable to develop or innovate as well as they could The resilience of our mainframe is put at risk Our competitive positioning is eroded by being unable to develop or innovate Other 1% 42% 47% which could put the organisation at a This never happens as we competitive disadvantage always justify the cost of 10% maintaining mainframe legacy applications 11 Figure 9: What is the impact on your business in instances where you can't justify expenditure on the maintenance of mainframe applications? (478 respondents)
3: Skills shortage 12
Fewer staff with mainframe skills Impossible the right skill sets just do not exist in the market place today 2% 0% 4% 15% Extremely difficult demand significantly outweighs supply 15% 1-10% 26% 37% Very difficult it is tough but possible 28% 10-15% 31% 45% Somewhat difficult the skills exist but they are not abundant in the market place today 38% 15-25% 12% 21% Simple there is no problem finding the right skills today 15% More than 25% 5% 5% I don't know 1% 2012 2013 Figure 10: How difficult is it to find IT workers with mainframe application skills today? Figure 11: Comparison of 2012 and 2013 research results for the percentage of IT staff responsible for maintaining mainframe applications that will reach retirement age in the next five years (590 respondents each year) 84% of respondents say that it is difficult to find IT workers with mainframe application skills at present, and on average, the percentage of existing staff with these skills approaching retirement age is increasing New staff are difficult to find, and existing staff are increasingly likely to be retiring 13
Lack of mainframe skills is prompting a rethink We are re-writing strategic mainframe apps in more modern languages to negate the skills challenge 31% Organisations are changing their mainframe use as a result of this skills gap We are replacing key legacy mainframe applications with commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) packages to negate the skills challenge The mainframe is strategically important to our business but the skills shortage means we are having to look for ways to navigate around the mainframe We are increasing our reliance on outsourcing vendors for mainframe app development and testing We are using a software solution to modernise our mainframe applications, to help negate the skills challenge 8% 17% 14% 25% Almost a third are rewriting their apps in more modern languages, and a quarter are replacing legacy apps with off-the-shelf solutions There is no majority response here; organisations are having to make changes, but those changes vary from company to company Only 4% say that they would rather they moved away from the mainframe. Most still find it valuable and want to keep using it even though the requisite skills are difficult to find I would rather we moved off the mainframe altogether in the future 4% Do organisations have knowledge of their existing mainframe application estate? Figure 12: Which one of the following best describes the impact of the mainframe application skills challenge on your business? (493 respondents) 14
Lack of knowledge of existing mainframe apps 100% certain the original knowledge will no longer be in our organisation 14% Our documentation is 100% robust 26% Highly likely the original knowledge will is no longer be in our organisation 41% Some of our documentation is good but some is incomplete 56% There is a small percentage of our staff who will have original knowledge of the code 31% Our documentation is full of holes 14% We have several team members with original knowledge of the code 12% We have limited to no documentation 4% Don't know 2% Don't know 1% Figure 13: How likely is it that the original knowledge of the application and supporting data structure is no longer with your organisation? Figure 14: When new legislation requires compliance changes to be made to your mainframe applications, how robust is your internal application documentation to enable quick and easy changes? Over half of respondents say that it is highly likely or certain that original knowledge of mainframe applications will no longer be in their organisation, meaning that updates to applications will be difficult to perform This problem is exacerbated by the fact that only 26% say that their mainframe application documentation is totally robust 15
The need for students to learn mainframe languages 83% of respondents say that it is valuable for students to learn mainframe programming languages Yes - demand for these skills will be around for a long time to come so it is a smart choice 25% A quarter say that there will be demand for these languages long term, and over half say that it is beneficial for programmers to learn as many languages as possible Yes - the more programming languages a developer learns the better as it increases the chances of employment 58% This desire for students to learn these skills is evidence of a need for such programming expertise in these organisations No - mainframe application languages like COBOL and PL/I are seen as un-cool and outdated. Other more modern languages are more exciting and useful 12% Only 5% believe that such programming languages are dead No - mainframe application languages like COBOL and PL/I are dead they have no future because programs written in these languages will be re-written in other languages or replaced by packaged applications in the longer term 5% 16 Figure 15: Do you believe it is valuable for today's students to learn mainframe application programming languages like COBOL and PL/I?
4: Mobile and cloud 17
Percentage of mainframe apps accessible through mobile/cloud is increasing 0% of mainframe applications 14% 11% 0% of mainframe applications 16% 12% 1-25% 32% 26% 1-25% 27% 22% 25-50% 27% 32% 25-50% 29% 30% 50-75% 18% 17% 50-75% 15% 19% 75-99% 7% 11% 75-99% 11% 14% 100% of mainframe applications 1% 3% 100% of mainframe applications 2% 5% At present In two years' time At present In two years' time Figure 16: Analysis of percentage of mainframe applications accessible on mobile devices at present and in two years time Figure 17: Analysis of percentage of mainframe applications accessible via the cloud at present and in two years time Only around a third of mainframe applications are accessible on mobile devices and/or via the cloud at present, though respondents indicate that this percentage will increase in two years time meaning that organisations are making efforts to improve the availability of their mainframe applications 18
The difficulty of developing mainframe mobile/cloud apps Impossible 3% 2% Under a fifth of respondents say that developing mainframe apps for mobile/cloud is simple Extremely difficult Very difficult Somewhat difficult 13% 9% 24% 27% 37% 37% Few say that development is impossible, but most say that it is difficult to some degree The increased IT debt on the mainframe and the lack of workers with mainframe skills are likely to be contributory factors to this difficulty Simple 17% 18% as is the problem of making legacy infrastructure compatible with modern methods of delivery I don't know 7% 7% Mobile devices Cloud Is this indicative of a more general development problem? Figure 18: Analysis of how difficult it is to develop mainframe applications for mobile devices and the cloud 19
Mainframes hinder application development Only around a fifth of respondents say that having a mainframe makes no difference to developing mobile/cloud apps Yes it makes it incredibly difficult 10% 9% One in ten say that having a mainframe makes mobile/cloud development incredibly difficult Yes it makes it very difficult 32% 30% It is not just the case that it is difficult to make mainframe apps mobile/cloud compatible; having a mainframe means that organisations find it difficult to create mobile apps and deploy existing systems to the cloud Again, the problems of out-of-date mainframe applications and a lack of skill in the marketplace are likely to make this problem worse Yes it makes it somewhat difficult No it makes no difference at all 16% 20% Developing mobile applications Deploying existing systems to the cloud 41% 41% 20 Figure 19: Analysis of those who say that having a mainframe makes developing mobile applications or deploying existing systems to the cloud more difficult
In summary IT debt on mainframes is increasing to the extent that the majority of an average organisation s IT debt is now located on the mainframe IT debt is predicted to increase by an average of 9% over the next five years 81% find it difficult to justify expenditure on maintaining legacy mainframe applications Amongst that 81%, only 10% can always eventually justify the cost and most say that lack of investment leaves the organisation open to compliance/risk issues On average, organisations predict that they will continue using mainframes for another ten years Organisations struggle to find IT staff with mainframe skills and many existing staff are reaching retirement age This lack of skill in the marketplace is forcing most organisations to rethink their mainframe applications The percentage of mainframe applications accessible through cloud or mobile devices is increasing although around four in five say that it is difficult to make mainframe apps mobile/cloud compatible and most say that having a mainframe in their infrastructures is a liability when they are making mobile/cloud applications in general 21
The challenges of using mainframes Racepoint Micro Focus Mainframe research results February 2014 22