RISKS AND CHANCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY WHAT ARE THE CURRENT QUESTIONS TO CLIMATE RESEARCH? Prof. Dr. Peter Höppe Head of Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre NCCR Climate, Bern, October 12, 2012 Munich Re Founded 1880 Annual premium 27bn in reinsurance Leading role in covering risks of natural hazards
Munich Re the first alerter to global warming in industry Munich Re Publication,1973 World Economic Forum 2011 Climate Change one of the Largest Risks Survey of 580 leaders and decision makers across the globe Supported by 18 workshops Assessment of 37 global risks for the next 10 year period
Heat Wave in Europe, August 2003 Deadliest natural disaster in Europe in the last 100 years, more than 70,000 fatalities Perceived Temperature on 8 August 2003 and excess mortality Heat stress 300 2.300 9.400 19.500 1.000 20.100 800 extreme high moderate light comfortable light moderate high extreme 2.700 15.000 Cold stress Sources: Robine et al., 2007; DWD, 2004 Region Overall losses Insured losses Fatalities Europe 12.3 bn 1.0 bn > 70,000 Wildfires/Heat wave, Russia June August 2010 Study published in November 2011 by Rahmstorf et al. in PNAS concludes that there is a 80% probability that this heat wave has been caused by global warming! Country affected Overall losses Insured losses Fatalities Russia US$ >3,600m US$ 22m 130 (wildfires) 56,000 (heat wave, smoke)
The climate dice is loaded! Published online April 2012 Floods, Queensland, Australia December 2010 to January 2011 Australia rainfall anomalies (Oct-Dec 2010) Region Overall losses Insured losses Fatalities Queensland, Australia US$ >10,000m US$ 5,000m 30 Source: New York Times 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, GeoRisikoForschung, NatCatSERVICE
Queensland floods is there a link to climate change? December sea surface temperature in the Australian region has been the highest on record There is a relation between precipitation and the sea surface temperature in Australia Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) Sea surface temperature is rising due to climate change 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research Source: RAHMSTORF, S. (2011): Überschwemmungen in Queensland. WISSENSlogs.de Cyclone Yasi (Cat 5), Queensland, Australia February 2011 Region Overall losses Insured losses Fatalities Queensland/Australia US$ 3,500m US$ 500m 2 Source: New York Times 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, GeoRisikoForschung, NatCatSERVICE
Global warming will intensify hurricanes Floods, Thailand, September to October, 2011 The most expensive flood disaster in history! Region Overall losses Insured losses Fatalities Thailand US$ 43 bn US$ 10 bn 813 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at July 2012 Source: Reuters Source: FEMA Source: Reuters
New studies show causal associations between climate change and weather extremes Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately twothirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas...changes in extreme precipitation projected by models and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming. U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update U.S. Thunderstorm Loss Trends Annual Totals 1980 2011 Average thunderstorm losses have increased fivefold since 1980. 2011 Total $25.8 bn Source: Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE 2011 Munich Re 14
Tropical storm 01M in the Mediterranean (3-9 Nov 2011) First storm defined as tropical storm in the Mediterranean, gusts up to 122 km/h Damages: Cote d'azur: beach restaurants and cafes destroyed South France: floods Lavagna (Italy): up to six meter high waves destroyed the beach promenade Genova: further flooding after heavy flash floods in week before Scientific paper: climate change increases probability for tropical storms in the Mediterranean
Summer 2012: Heat records and drought in the US July 2012 warmest month in US since start of measurements Region Total losses Insured losses Fatalities USA > US$ 10 bn* > US$ 5 bn* 42 *Loss assessments still ongoing 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at October 2011 Changes in return periods of extreme temperature events IPCC SREX, November 2011
Munich Re NatCatSERVICE The most comprehensive database of natural loss events Year Number of data sets 0079-999 35 1000-1499 200 1500-1899 1 000 1900-1949 1 200 >30,000 data sets 1950-1979 2 900 1980-2011 25 000 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 2011 Number of events with trend Number 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2012
NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 2011 Overall and insured losses with trend (bn US$) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Overall losses (in 2011 values) Insured losses (in 2011 values) 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2012 NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes worldwide, 1980 2010 Number of events by peril with trend Number 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2011
Climate change is a strategic topic for Munich Re The three pillars of Munich Re s climate change strategy Risk assessment Research of natural hazards and climate change impacts Climate liability issues Prospective risk management (considering weather oscillations such as El Niño) Business opportunities Growing demand for risk transfer solutions such as renewable energy covers Performance covers for solar modules Delivery covers for wind and sun Asset management Integration of sustainability criteria into investment strategies Significant expansion of renewable energy investments where frameworks are appropriate Becoming carbon neutral (Munich: since 2009, reinsurance worldwide: 2012) Supporting several climate initiatives (UNEP FI, GCF ) Initiating flagship projects such as the Dii GmbH and MCII Investments in Renewable Energies of 2.5 bn. over the next years Munich Re sets the standard for renewable energy insurance solutions Munich Re's strategy Growth market: Renewable energies Investments in renewable energies are rising fast: In 2011 US$ 260 bn 1 Further major growth expected Wind energy Innovative solution for major losses in the form of operative and delivery guarantees manufacturers profit from the capital relief this provides Photovoltaic energy New type of insurance to cover performance guarantees benefits customers and manufacturers; high demand around the world Geothermal energy The exploration risk is frequently a stumbling block for projects there is rising demand for Munich Re's special covers Picture Geothermie Unterhaching GmbH & Co KG Thanks to risk-transfer solutions, investors receive the security they need Special covers for renewable energies offer significant potential for business 1 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Insurability of global warming effects in developing countries Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) MCII Objectives of MCII: Development of risk transfer solutions to support adaptation mechanisms to global warming in developing countries within the framework of the UNFCCC process. MCII was founded in 2005 on initiative by Munich Re together with Germanwatch, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Munich Re Foundation, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Tyndall Centre, World Bank and independent experts. CO 2 the Most Important Greenhouse Gas CO 2 contributes more than 60% to anthropogenic global warming CO 2 on average stays in the atmosphere more than 100 years The largest part of CO 2 emissions stems from burning of fossil fuels => Key to climate protection and sustainable energy supply are renewable energies
Munich Re together with the Desertec Foundation has initiated the foundation of the Desertec industrial initiative (Dii GmbH) Origin and vision Developed by the Club of Rome s TREC Initiative (Transmediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation) Vision: Providing Europe (EU), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with a sustainable supply of renewable energy by the year 2050 Within six hours, deserts receive more energy from the sun than humankind consumes within a year. (Dr. Gerhard Knies) Today 57 companies support the Dii GmbH Dii 21 Associated Dii Shareholder Partners (Stand: November Juli 2012) 2010) 36 Dii Associated Partners (Stand: Juli 2012)
The first milestone has been reached in June 2012 29 Desert Power 2050 addresses the target picture and pathways to implementation Target picture (Summer 2012) Pathways to implementation (Q1 2013) Desert Power 2050: Perspectives on a sustainable power system for EUMENA Which technological and geographical mix of RE is best suited to provide the EUMENA region with a sustainable, reliable and affordable power system? Desert Power 2050: Getting Started Actionable recommendations on all key aspects of implementing a fully integrated EUMENA power system based on RE Ramp-up of MENA RE Grid infrastructure/ electricity highways connecting MENA & Europe Public support (design, phase-out) Institutional framework Socio-economic effects 30
Munich Re publication on Energy Situation, Problems with Commodities and Insurance dated 1978 Questions of Insurance Industry to Climate Research Interest of insurance industry especially in changes of patterns of weather extremes. Most important are analyses of already existing changes and expected changes in the next 10 to 20 years. What is the process that has driven the SST variations in the North Atlantic Ocean in the last century? (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) vs. Multidecadal Variability (MDV): new paper by Booth et al. (Nature, 2012) explaining the Atlantic SST-phases by anthropogenic factors). What are the effects of climate change on winter weather patterns in Europe: will we have colder winters with less storms? Detection of climate change signals in convective events Modelling of regional intense precipitation events
New Publication Severe weather in North America The 270 pages book published next week. Separate Executive Summary (8 pages) already available!