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How Finance Faces a Multi Polar Political World
The Borgenisation of British politics Source: Politicsresources.net
A close run thing Con: 34% Lab: 34% LD: 9% UKIP: 14% Green: 6% Election Forecast May 2015 Elections Etc Guardian Ladbrokes Odds Electoral Calculus 15 Apr 14 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr Con 283 269 289 271 283.5 280 Lab 274 275 266 271 273.5 282 LD 1 27 26 27 28 26.5 17 UKIP 1 3 5 4 3.5 1 SNP 42 54 49 51 42.5 48 Green 1 1 1 1 1 1 Other 22 22 21 21 19.5 18 Result Hung Hung Hung Hung Hung Hung Parties need at least 318 seats for a stable government
A close run thing Con: 34% Lab: 34% LD: 9% UKIP: 14% Green: 6% 1 Source: BBC Poll of Polls
Election Outcomes Conservatives - 290 Labour - 270 Liberal Democrats - 25 Labour - 290 Conservatives - 270 Liberal Democrats - 28 Conservatives - 275 Labour - 275 Liberal Democrats - 32 SNP - 45 1 SNP - 35 SNP - 45 UKIP - 2 UKIP - 4 UKIP - 5 Others - 18 Others - 23 Others - 18
Election Outcomes Conservatives - 290 EU referendum Consistent regulatory approach Labour - 290 No EU referendum Making markets fairer/interventionist approach Conservatives - 275 Labour - 275 Regulatory and fiscal uncertainty Second election?
Polling Trends Pass the peanuts, mate. Main party deadlock SNP builds on momentum Liberal Democrats focus no longer national UKIP dropping off Green Surge failed to gather momentum
Key Battlegrounds - Scotland
Key political battlegrounds UK Marginals
Disruptive Influences Insurgent parties Croydon Central Dumfries and Galloway Torbay
Disruptive Influences Voter Priorities
Immediate priorities in Government Implement Vickers proposals Maintain pressure on FS remuneration Diversify FS sector with challenger banks & alternative sources of finance Northern powerhouse & wider capital investment In/Out EU Referendum No tax rises in the next parliament
Immediate priorities in Government Deficit reduction Change Corporate takeover rules Reform business & personal tax system Establish market share threshold for banks Annual Competition Audits Launch infrastructure commission
Other party priorities Make green energy top infrastructure investments priority. Pensions o Defined ambition o Secondary annuities market Advice o Support guidance process o Cost of advice Taxation o Further increase in personal allowance o Stronger action on tax evasion May not oppose a European Referendum Oppose an EU referendum. Enhanced devolution for Scotland. Control of business taxes. Targeted changes in tax allowances. Additional 180bn of investment in innovation and infrastructure. Support an FTT. Support EU referendum and UK exit. Fund higher standard of free advice Reoccupy seat at the WTO. Set up a Treasury Commission to stop artificial tax avoidance Introduce an Australianstyle points system for immigrants. Cut business rates for SMEs. Support EU referendum. Enhanced devolution for Northern Ireland. Control of corporation tax. 2bn increase in the block grant for Northern Ireland Opponents of an FTT. Increase support and access to finance for SMEs. Support EU referendum. Increase corp tax to 30% for large biz. Introduce an FTT. Strong opponents of TTIP. Introduce a Citizens Income & 60% top tax rate. Separate retail and investment banking. Introduce market caps for banks. Introduce a Green Industrial Strategy.
Implications 1. Constitutional EU referendum and possible Brexit. Fiscal Devolution. Scottish referendum. 2. Regulatory Consumer-driven stance towards business from regulators and policymakers. Market intervention and caps. Continuing focus on culture and competition. Cost of doing business. 3. Economic Deficit reduction/austerity. Market instability.
Too Close To Call
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