The AGE CURVE How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm Kenneth W. Gronbach Demographics 101 1. More is more. 1
Family Food Story 1 Family Food Story 2 2
Family Food Story 3 Demographics 201 1. More is more. 2. Groups of people are. predictable. 3
Stages of Life 2 Demographics 201 ipods bicycles rings steady jobs cars college motorcycles taxes mortgages more cars taxes 2nd mortgages college tuition more taxes kids mortgages world travel retirement healthcare tricycles wheelchairs < 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >75 diapers funerals Average expenditures by age group Average income by age group Demographics 301 1. More is more. 2. The Groups more of things people change, are the more predictable.. 3. If you want to predict the future, DO THE! MATH! 4
Motorcycle Sales + Births Motorcycle Sales 1973-2006 Epiphany 5
Dalmation Birth Chart Build 2 US Live Births 1905-2005 4.5 4.0 Number of Births (in Millions) 3.5 3.0 GI Generation 56.6 Million Silent Generation 52.5 Million Baby Boomers 78.2 Million Generation X 69.5 Million Generation Y 100 Million (through 2010) 2.5 2.0 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 6
Birth Chart Build US Live Births 1905-2005 4.5 4.0 Latino Immigration 40 Million+ Number of Births (in Millions) 3.5 3.0 GI Generation 56.6 Million Silent Generation 52.5 Million Baby Boomers 78.2 Million Generation X 69.5 Million Generation Y 100 Million (through 2010) 2.5 2.0 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 7
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Births in the Northeast, 1981 to 2004 Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Births in the Midwest, 1981 to 2004 Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, Wisconsin 960,000 940,000 920,000 900,000 880,000 860,000 840,000 1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 10
Births in the West, 1981 to 2004 Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wyoming Millions 1.04 1.00 0.96 0.92 0.88 0.84 0.80 0.76 1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Births in the South, 1981 to 2004 Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia Millions 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 11
U.S. Hispanic Population by County: 2007 China 1979 - present ±400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies 12
±400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies ±400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies 13
±400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies industry 14
energy energy prices prices 15
fluctuating $ immigration 16
g r e e n 17
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taxes Napoleon Bonaparte: 1769-1821 20
Napoleon s march on Moscow: 1812 US Triumph: Flight 1152 21
AGE CURVE RESEARCH How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm agecurveresearch.com Kenneth W. Gronbach 22
Black screen Presentation designed, illustrated, animated and produced for Kenneth W. Gronbach by Friedlander 2.com http://kgcdirect.com http://friedlander2.com 23
Motorcycle Sales 1973-2006 Sales data from Motorcycle Industry Council, tabulated by KGA Research Census data from National Center for Health Statistics, analysis by John Friedlander Chart design by John Friedlander Market Demand Cooking, food styling and photography by John & Debi Friedlander 24
Stages of Life Earning and Expenditures data from U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2006 Consumer Expenditure Survey Chart design by John Friedlander US Live Births 1905-2005 Census data from National Center for Health Statistics, analysis by Ken Gronbach Chart design by John Friedlander 25
China 1979 - present China population data from: Family Planning Law and China s Birth Control Situation: http://www.china.org.cn/english/2002/oct/46138.htm China-One Child Policy ABC News Foreign Correspondent http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2005/s1432717.htm BBC News: Has China s One-Child Policy worked? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7000931.stm Comparative population and land mass data from Wikipedia Chart design by John Friedlander Rearview Mirror Photo by John Friedlander 26
Napoleon Bonaparte 1769-1821 Watercolor artist unknown Private collection of Ken Gronbach Napoleon s march on Moscow - 1812 Chart designed by Charles Joseph Minard in 1869 27
Jan & Dean: The Complete Early Years Record cover: Sparkle Tone Records, 1995 The AGE CURVE How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm Kenneth W. Gronbach 28
China 1979 - present ±400 million births prevented by one-child policies????????????????????? Motorcycle Sales 1 Motorcycle Sales 1973-2006 29
Motorcycle Sales 2 Motorcycle Sales 1973-2006 Motorcycle Sales 3 Motorcycle Sales 1973-2006 30
Motorcycle Sales 4 Motorcycle Sales 1973-2006 Motorcycle Sales 5 Motorcycle Sales 1973-2006 31
Stages of Life Stages of Life Particulars vary from culture to culture ipods bicycles rings steady jobs cars college motorcycles taxes mortgages more cars taxes 2nd mortgages college tuition more taxes kids mortgages world travel retirement healthcare tricycles wheelchairs < 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >75 diapers funerals Average expenditures by age group Average income by age group China 1979 - present ±400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies 32
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