OECD Employment Outlook Chapter. All in it together? The experience of different labour market groups following the crisis Annex.A. Further Material The following pages provide supplementary material for the analysis presented in Chapter of OECD Employment Outlook. This material reflects data available as of May. ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT PARIS, JULY Citation: OECD (), All in it Together? The Experience of Different Labour Market Groups Following the Crisis Further Material, Annex of Chapter of the OECD Employment Outlook, OECD Publishing, Paris, available online at www.oecd.org/employment/outlook.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Tables Table.A.. Jobs gap in OECD countries... Table.A.. Effect of recessions on labour market outcomes, by age and sex... Figures Figure.A.. Evolution of non-employment since the onset of the crisis in selected OECD countries... Figure.A.. Evolution of non-employment by group since the onset of the crisis... 7 Figure.A.. Evolution of youth non-employment since the onset of the crisis... 9 Figure.A.. Decomposition of the change in the inactivity of older workers in selected OECD countries... Figure.A.. Decomposition of the change in the labour force participation rate of older workers (aged ) in OECD countries, -... ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AUS Australia ISR Israel CHE Switzerland AUT Austria ITA Italy TUR Turkey BEL Belgium JPN Japan GBR United Kingdom CAN Canada KOR Korea USA United States CHL Chile LUX Luxembourg EU7 European Union CZE Czech Republic MEX Mexico EA7 Euro area DNK Denmark NLD Netherlands EA Euro area () EST Estonia NZL New Zealand FIN Finland NOR Norway FRA France POL Poland DEU Germany PRT Portugal GRC Greece SVK Slovak Republic HUN Hungary SVN Slovenia ISL Iceland ESP Spain IRL Ireland SWE Sweden The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
Table.A.. Jobs gap a in OECD countries Change in the jobs gap since the start of the crisis -points change Change in the jobs gap since the start of the crisis Thousands Country -specific trough Current Q Projected Q Country -specific trough Current Q Projected Q OECD b -. -. -.9 7 Euro area () b,c -. -. -. 7 7 7 Australia -. -. -. -7 - Austria -. -. -. - 7 Belgium. -. -. - -9 - Canada -.7 -. -.9 9-7 Chile -..9. 79 - -9 Czech Republic -. -. -. 7 79 Denmark -.7 -. -. 7 77 7 Estonia -. -. -. - - Finland -. -. -. 7 France -. -. -. Germany..9. 9 Greece -. -. -. 9 9 9 Hungary -. -. -. 77 Iceland. -7.. Ireland -. -.. 9 Israel... Italy -. -. -. 9 Japan -.7 -.9 -. 7 9 9 Korea -.7.. -9 Lux embourg. -. -.9-9 Mex ico -.9 -. -. 7-7 Netherlands -. -. -. New Zealand -. -. -. -7-7 - Norw ay -.9 -. -. - Poland... 7 Portugal -. -. -. 9 Slov ak Republic. -.9 -.9 - -9 Slov enia -. -.9-7. Spain -. -9. -. 7 Sw eden -. -. -. - Sw itzerland -. -.9 -.7 Turkey -..9 7. 7-79 United Kingdom -. -. -. United States -. -. -. 7 7 7 a. The jobs gap is defined as the difference between actual employment and OECD estimates of potential employment. b. OECD and euro area () are weighted averages of countries shown. c. Aggregate of OECD countries of the euro area. Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Economic Outlook Database (http://dx.doi.org/.77/eo-data-en).
Table.A.. Effect of recessions on labour market outcomes, by age and sex Coefficient on the additional effect of the global financial crisis quarters after the start of the crisis a A. Baseline model B. Augmented model that controls for linear country-specific trends All persons (aged ) all recessions in the 7s/s/9s Youth (aged -) all recessions in the 7s/s/9s Older persons (aged ) all recessions in the 7s/s/9s Women (aged ) all recessions in the 7s/s/9s Youth (aged -) all recessions in the 7s/s/9s Older persons (aged ) all recessions in the 7s/s/9s Women (aged ) all recessions in the 7s/s/9s Employ ment Participation Unemploy ment Employ ment Participation Unemploy ment.77. -.9.. -. (.9) (.7) (.9) (.) (.9) (.).. -...79 -.9 (.7) (.7) (.) (.) (.) (.).7. -.... (.9) (.) (.7) (.) (.79) (.9)..7 -.9..9 -. (.7) (.) (.) (.9) (.7) (.).99**.** -.7.. -. (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.).7***.*** -... -. (.99) (.) (.) (.77) (.7) (.77).. -.... (.77) (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.).77. -.7..9 -. (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.9) (.7) C. Difference-in-difference model b D. Augmented difference-in-difference model that controls for linear country-specific trends b Employ ment Participation Unemploy ment Employ ment Participation Unemploy ment -...9.. -. (.79) (.) (.9) (.7) (.) (.).9.7... -. (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.7) (.7).*.**. -. -..7 (.77) (.97) (.7) (.) (.9) (.).**.***. -... (.) (.) (.77) (.) (.) (.)...7..9.7 (.9) (.77) (.9) (.9) (.) (.9)......9* (.) (.9) (.) (.9) (.) (.9) ***, **, *: Statistically significant at, and levels, respectively. Robust standard errors in parenthesis. a. All regressions include time fixed effects. b. The dependent variable is the difference at time t+n and time t of the log of the labour market outcomes for the selected group minus the difference of the log for the reference group (-). Source: OECD estimates based on national labour force surveys.
Figure.A.. Evolution of non-employment since the onset of the crisis in selected OECD countries Percentage-points change in the number of persons in a given labour market status a as a share of the working-age population, Q 7-Q... -.. -. - -. - - - - Non-employment rate Inactivity rate Short-term unemployment-to-population ratio Long-term unemployment-to-population ratio OECD a European Union Euro area Australia - - Austria Canada Czech Republic Denmark... -. Estonia Finland France Germany... -. - Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland - - - - -.. -.... -. - -. - -.. -. - - - - - -.. -. - -. - -. - -. Israel b,c Italy Japan Korea b -.. -. -.. -.
Figure.A.. Evolution of non-employment since the onset of the crisis in selected OECD countries (cont.) Percentage-points change in the number of persons in a given labour market status a as a share of the working-age population, Q 7-Q... -. - - - - - - Non-employment rate Inactivity rate Short-term unemployment-to-population ratio Long-term unemployment-to-population ratio Mexico c Netherlands c New Zealand Norway - - Poland Portugal c Slovak Republic Slovenia - Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey.... -. - -...... -. - -.. -. - -. -... -. - - - - - - - -... -. - -. United Kingdom...... -. United States a. OECD is the weighted average of countries (excluding Chile). b. Short-term unemployment refers to total unemployment for Israel () and for Korea. c. Series adjusted to take into account the break in series: for Mexico and the Netherlands, for Portugal. And for Israel. Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-term labour Market Statistics Database (http://dx.doi.org/.77/lfs-lms-dataen) and national labour force surveys.
Figure.A.. Evolution of non-employment by group since the onset of the crisis Percentage-points change of the number of persons in a given labour market status as a share of the corresponding population of the corresponding group as a deviation from the population-wide change in OECD countries, a Q 7-Q b Non-employment rate Inactivity rate Short-term unemployment-to-population ratio Long-term unemployment-to-population ratio - - - - - -7 Women (aged ) - - Youth (aged -) - - - - Older workers (aged ) 7
Figure.A.. Evolution of non-employment by group since the onset of the crisis (cont.) Percentage-points change of the number of persons in a given labour market status as a share of the corresponding population of the corresponding group as a deviation from the population-wide change in OECD countries, a Q 7-Q b Non-employment rate Inactivity rate Short-term unemployment-to-population ratio Long-term unemployment-to-population ratio - - Low-skilled d (aged ) - - - - - High-skilled d (aged ) a. OECD is the weighted average of countries (excluding Chile) for the statistics by gender, of countries for the statistics by age (excluding Australia, Chile and New Zealand) and of 9 countries for the statistics by education (excluding Australia, Chile, Japan, Korea and New Zealand) b. Q 7-Q for Israel. c. Short-term unemployment refers to total unemployment. d. Low-skilled refers to persons without upper secondary education and high-skilled to persons with a tertiary education. Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-term labour Market Statistics Database (http://dx.doi.org/.77/lfs-lms-dataen) and national labour force surveys.
TUR DEU AUT HUN EST CHE POL JPN NLD (d) BEL SWE CZE FRA FIN MEX (d) OECD (e) EU7 AUS CAN GBR EA7 ITA USA NOR ISL SVK DNK SVN GRC NZL PRT (d) IRL ESP Figure.A.. Evolution of youth non-employment since the onset of the crisis Non-employment rate NEET rate (a) Enrolment rate (b) A. Decomposition of the change in non-employment rate Percentage-point change of the number of youth (aged -) in a given labour market status as a share of the population aged -, Q -Q c - - - B. Decomposition of the change in the OECD e non-employment rate Percentage-points change of the number of youth (aged -) in a given labour market status as a share of the population aged -, Q 7-Q - 7 Q Q Q Q Q 9 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: Countries are shown by ascending order of the youth non-employment rate in Panel A. a. The NEET rate is defined as the share of the youth population not in employment, education or training. b. The enrolment rate is defined as the share of the youth population in education or training. c. Q -Q for Norway. d. Series adjusted to take into account the break in series: for Mexico and the Netherlands and for Portugal. e. OECD is the weighted average of countries (excluding Chile, Israel and Korea). Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Short-term labour Market Statistics Database (http://dx.doi.org/.77/lfs-lms-dataen) and national labour force surveys. 9
Figure.A.. Decomposition of the change in the inactivity of older workers in selected OECD countries Annual average percentage-points change since a of the number of persons aged in a given labour market status as a share of persons aged Inactivity rate Retirement rate Disability rate Rate of inactivity for other reasons - - - - - - - - - - Australia Austria Belgium Czech Republic Denmark - - - - - - - - Estonia Finland France b Germany Greece - - - - - - - n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Hungary Ireland Italy Luxembourg Mexico - - - - - n.a. - - - - - - - - - - - - n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Figure.A.. Decomposition of the change in the inactivity of older workers in selected OECD countries (cont.) Annual average percentage-points change since a of the number of persons aged in a given labour market status as a share of persons aged Inactivity rate Retirement rate Disability rate Rate of inactivity for other reasons - - - - - - Netherlands Norway Poland c Portugal Slovak Republic - - - - - - - - - - - - - - n.a. - - - - n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a. Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States - - - - - - - - - - - n.a.: Not available. a. for the Slovak Republic; for France; and for Mexico and Spain. b. Category "Other reasons" includes disability reasons. c. Since the beginning of all disability pensions for persons who had reached the retirement age has been automatically converted into the old-age pensions. Source: OECD calculations based on national labour force surveys.
Figure.A.. Decomposition of the change in the labour force participation rate of older workers (aged ) in OECD countries, - a Percentage-points change by sex and educational attainment Between group effect Within group effect Total - - a. - for Mexico and - for Turkey. b. Data adjusted to take into account the new data collection mode initiated in. c. OECD is the weighted average of the countries shown. Source: OECD calculations based on national labour force surveys.