Fixed Annuity Sales, Trends and Implications Presentation For: NAFA 2011 Annuity Solutions Expo Judith Alexander, Director of Sales and Marketing, Beacon Research Tim Hill, Consulting Actuary + Principal, Milliman, Inc. Doug Price, Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Zenith Marketing Group
The Big Picture Estimated Overall Fixed Annuity Sales: 2003-2010 120.0 106.7 104.3 100.0 84.1 86.7 (dollar in billions) 80.0 60.0 40.0 77.0 74.0 66.6 71.7 20.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study
The Big Picture Estimated Total FA Sales vs. S&P 500: 2003-2010 (correlation coefficient = -.79) 1600 40.0 1400 35.0 1200 30.0 (S&P 500) 1000 800 600 400 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 (dollar in billions) 200 5.0 0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 0.0 S&P 500 Sales Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study
The Big Picture Estimated Total FA Sales vs. Treasury Yield Curve (10-Year minus 1-Year): 2003-2010 (correlation coefficient =.33) 14,000,000 12,000,000 4.000% 3.500% 3.000% (dollar in thousands) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 2.500% 2.000% 1.500% 1.000% 0.500% 0.000% -0.500% - -1.000% January-03 April-03 July-03 October-03 January-04 April-04 July-04 October-04 January-05 April-05 July-05 October-05 January-06 April-06 July-06 October-06 January-07 April-07 July-07 October-07 January-08 April-08 July-08 October-08 January-09 April-09 July-09 October-09 January-10 April-10 July-10 October-10 Treasury Yield Curve Estimated Sales Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study ;
The Big Picture Estimated Total FA Sales vs. 5-Year MYG Average Credited Rate: 2003-2010 (correlation coefficient =.25) (dollar in thousands) 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Estimated Sales 5 Year CD Type FA Average Credited Rate Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study ; Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Index: Average Benchmark Series
The Big Picture Estimated Total FA Sales vs: 5-Year Credited/Treasury Rate Spread: 2003 2010 (correlation coefficient =.74) 14,000,000 3.5% (dollar in thousands) 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% -0.5% 0-1.5% Estimated Sales Average 5 Year Credited Rate less 5 Year Treasury Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study ; Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Index: Average Benchmark Series
Estimated Total Fixed Annuity Sales by Quarter, 2008-2010 40.0 35.0 34.1 34.8 30.0 27.7 27.8 (dollar in billions) 25.0 20.0 15.0 19.6 25.3 22.1 19.6 16.5 19.2 19.3 16.7 10.0 5.0 0.0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study
First, the Bad News: Fixed Rate Annuities MVA and non-mva Sales: 2003-2010 8,000,000 (dollar in thousands) 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Reasons for steep decline. Rate disadvantage. Rate expectations. Fewer exchanges into new contracts. Company decisions non-mva MVA Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study
Better News: Income Annuities Estimated Income Annuity Sales: 2003-2010 (dollar in thousands) 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Reasons for small increase Good PR. Demand (somewhat) independent of rates. Retirement income plan component. Use to fund LI + LTC. More bank/b-d distribution. 1,000,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study
Good News: Fixed Indexed Annuities Estimated Indexed Annuity Sales: 2003-2010 (dollar in thousands) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Reasons for record-high sales Premium bonuses + GLWBs (enable/justify exchanges). Downside protection. Gradually growing 2010 interest in upside (tracks mutual fund net flows). Indexes are popular. Less rate competition. Increased distribution? Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study
Channel Market Share Tracks Sales by Product Type Fixed Annuity Market Share by Distribution Channel: 2003-2010 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% Captive Agents Independent Producers Wirehouses Large/regional B-Ds Independent B-Ds Banks & S&Ls Other 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study
Q1 11 Results - Preliminary Amount (in $ billions) vs Q1 10 vs Q4 10 FIA $7.1 0% -15% Fixed Rate Non-MVA $8.6 +12% +42% Fixed Rate MVA $1.4 +7% +7% Income (SPIA + DIA) $1.8 +1% -7% Total $18.9 +6% +7%
Outlook Challenges Suitability regs (training) trimmed product lines Suitability regs + reserve requirements costs less competitive rates Source of funds regs Tough rate environment Opportunities Suitability regs public confidence Trend financial planning Partial annuitization Demand for conservative assets
ABOUT BEACON RESEARCH Helps IMOs, banks,tpms & B-Ds sell annuities, support monitor sales & minimize compliance risk Tracks fixed, indexed & variable annuity features, rates & sales Works with 100+ annuity issuers and distributors Independent research company/asp founded in 1997
Trends in Indexed Annuities Significant yield pick-up going from 5-yr to 10-yr duration Continued emphasis on GLWB Number of new GMDB features coming to market Proprietary products Continued trend toward 10 and 10 compliant products InterState Compact Alternative indices LTC combination products Significant interest from Broker/Dealer market Bank channel has show some interest Pressure from structured product 1