An Introduction Risk Management Breakfast Dr Constantin Sobiella Accounting, Compliance and Corporate Finance London, 11 April 2008
Agenda Commodity Hedge Accounting Introduction & Motivation IAS 39 Financial Instruments Basics Hedge Accounting Process Model Commodity Hedge Accounting Specific Aspects Commodity Hedge Accounting Example Prospects Summary 2
Introduction & Motivation Economic Trend Economic hedging of commodity inventory, firm commitments, and/or forecast transactions using derivatives due to strong increases and high volatility of commodity prices. 160% Commodity Prices 2008 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% XNG YNG 100% XPD XPT 90% 01.01.08 16.01.08 31.01.08 15.02.08 01.03.08 16.03.08 31.03.08 3
IAS 39 Financial Instruments Basics Hedging instruments are in general commodity derivatives Differentiation: Own-use contracts vs. financial instruments according to IAS 39 Own-use contracts: Changes in fair value are not recognised in PnL IAS 39 financial instruments: Measurement according to classification High PnL Risk At Fair Value through Profit and Loss HfT/AFV/LFV - Fair Value High PnL Risk Low Equity Risk Available for Sale AfS - Fair Value Low PnL Risk Loans and Receivables LaR - Amortised Cost Other Financial Liabilities OFL - Amortised Cost Low PnL Risk Held to Maturity HtM - Amortised Cost Financial commodity derivatives have to be classified as Held for Trading 4
Hedge Accounting Process Model Aim of specific hedge accounting rules: Elimination of accounting mismatches (reduction of non-economic PnL-volatility) Accounting mismatches due to asymmetric treatment of economic hedges IAS Mixed Model Approach, i.e. fair value vs. amortised cost measurement, and Off-balance non-financial hedged items/underlyings General hedge accounting process 3 Phase Model PHASE I Hedge Designation PHASE II Hedge Maintenance PHASE III Hedge Termination Hedge Life-Cycle 5
Phase I Hedge Designation Phase I.I : Formal designation and documentation of hedge Risk management objective/strategy for undertaking the hedge Type of hedge, i.e. fair value, cash flow, or portfolio hedge Risk being hedged Specification of hedged item/underlying Specification of hedging instrument/derivative Designation date Assessment of effectiveness testing, i.e. specification of prospective and retrospective method, testing frequency Phase I.II : Prospective test at inception of the hedge 6
Phase II Hedge Maintenance Phase II.I : Retrospective hedge assessment/measurement Performed at each reporting date using the formally documented method verification of high effectiveness Phase II.II : Generation of specific hedge accounting entries Fair value hedges: Compensation of the derivative PnL-volatility via hedge fair value/basis adjustment of the underlying Cash flow hedges: Effective part of derivative fair value changes recognised in equity, other comprehensive income (OCI), ineffective part in PnL Phase II.III : Assessment of prospective effectiveness at each reporting date 7
Phase III Hedge Termination Phase III.I : Specifying the cause for the hedge termination Non-qualified hedge, retrospective hedge effectiveness failed Expiration or close-out of the hedging instrument Expiration or close-out of the hedged item Forecast transaction is no longer expected to occur Designation is revoked by management decision Phase III.II : Generation of specific termination postings Fair value hedges: Discharge vs. amortisation of cumulative basis adjustment Cash flow hedges: Discharge vs. release of OCI to PnL 8
Commodity Hedge Accounting Specific Aspects (I) Commodity risk is generally linked to non-financial instruments which can only be hedged in its entirety or for FX risk only according to IAS 39 Type of hedging depends on the hedged item/underlying Commodity inventory: Fair value hedge Commodity firm commitment: Fair value hedge for own-use contract Commodity forecast transaction: Cash flow hedge Commodity cash flow hedges based on forecast transactions Commodity exposure based on information of planned operation in business units Generation of highly probable forecast transaction: Transformation of exposure into cash flow equivalents using actual sale or purchase contracts 9
Commodity Hedge Accounting Specific Aspects (II) Critical points regarding commodity cash flow hedges Economic hedging strategy for multi-variable commodity exposure, e.g. car battery Availability and quality of market data, e.g. commodity forward curves Setup of robust hedge effectiveness methods based on statistical analysis Modelling of OCI-release Immediate release: Modification of inventory via basis adjustment Delayed release: PnL recognition when hedge asset affects PnL Back-testing of exposure to validate highly probable forecast transactions Validation of economic hedging strategy for portfolio hedges 10
Commodity Hedge Accounting Example (I) Hedging a highly probable purchase of platinum with a forward contract Nature of Risk: Company A is purchasing platinum (XPT) for its operating units. The purchase price for XPT will vary on the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) fixing. Therefore, company A is exposed to market fluctuation in the LPPM prices over time. Objective: Protection of the USD value of a highly probable physical XPT purchase. Type of Hedge: Cash flow hedge. Risk being Hedged: The USD variability of a very likely future cash flow. Designation Date: Trade date of the hedging instrument 11-April-2008. 11
Commodity Hedge Accounting Example (II) Hedged Item: Highly probable XPT purchase notional amount: 2.500 Oz., purchase date: 05-April-2010, purchase price: Monthly average LPPM a.m. fixing in USD FV Underlying ( t N T = DF t T + t s USD 1 0 ; ) ( 0 ; ) f USD / XPT ( t 0 ; T i ) N i = 0 1 + XPT Exposure XPT Hedging Instrument: XPT cash settled commodity forward notional amount: 2.500 Oz., trade date: 11-April-2008, maturity date: 05-April-2010, deal rate: 1.400 USD/Oz. FV Forward 1 N 1 = DF( t0, T + ts ) USD fusd / XPT ( t0, T i) KContract, USD NominalContract, XPT N i= 0 t 0 valuation date, T plan period, t s spot days, N business days of fixing month, f USD/XPT XPT forward rate, DF USD discount factor using USD IR curve, K Contract, USD USD deal rate, XPT fixed additional charge. 12
Commodity Hedge Accounting Example (III) Prospective hedge effectiveness assessment: Regression analysis hedge is effective Regression slope is within the range of -0,8 and -1,25, The R-squared of the regression is equal or greater than 80%, and The F-statistic is significant at the 95% confidence level 50.000 25.000 y = -1,0156x + 218,6 R 2 = 1 Delta Fair Value Underlying 0-50.000-25.000 0 25.000 50.000-25.000-50.000 Delta Fair Value Forward 13
Commodity Hedge Accounting Example (IV) Retrospective hedge effectiveness assessment: Dollar-offset method with threshold FV Underlying FV Forward CTB01 (100) 150 CTB02 (10.000) 9.000 CTB03 5.000 (5.500) Maturity Date Forward (5.500) 5.350 CTB01: Future (Asset) 150 Cash Flow Hedges (Equity) 150 Effectiveness Threshold 90 % 110% 97% CTB02: Effective FV Forward Ineffective FV Forward 150-9.000 - (5.000) (500) 5.350 - Future (Asset) 9.000 Cash Flow Hedges (Equity) 9.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0-2.000 PnL Impact of Commodity Forward CTB1 CTB2 CTB3 T_M T_R CTB03: Cash Flow Hedges (Equity) 5.000 Hedge Gain & Loss (PnL) 500 Future (Asset) 5.500 Maturity Date Forward: Future (Asset) 5.350 Cash Flow Hedges (Equity) 5.350 Cash (Asset) 9.000 Future (Asset) 9.000-4.000 Reclassification Date: -6.000 Non-Hedge Case Hedge Case Cash Flow Hedges (Equity) 9.500 Hedge Gain & Loss (PnL) 9.500 14
Prospects Exposure Draft of Proposed Amendments to IAS 39 Financial Instruments: Recognition and Measurement Identification of Exposure Qualifying for Hedge Accounting Comment letters discussion related to portion, one-sided risk of cash flows of nonfinancial items or partial-term hedges First stage in IAS 39 replacement project: Discussion Paper: Reducing Complexity in Reporting of Financial Instruments Approach 3: Simplifying hedge accounting rules reclassification to earnings of deferred gains and losses based on hedge documentation 15
Summary Reduction of non-economic PnL-volatility by setting up a commodity hedge accounting solution for highly probable forecast transactions High automation due to bulk business High quality models and market data Definition of robust hedge effectiveness test methods hedge effectiveness is limited by economic hedging strategy for multi-variable commodity exposure Modelling of OCI release immediate release: Interface between Treasury sub-ledger and commodity inventory management system necessary New regulatory development regarding measurement and representations of financial instruments 16
Your contact to d-fine Dr Constantin Sobiella Senior Consultant constantin.sobiella@d-fine.de phone +49-(0)69-907-37-376 mobile +49-(0)162-263-00-65 Dr Tilman Huhne Manager tilman.huhne@d-fine.de phone +49-(0)89-790-8617-377 mobile +49-(0)162-263-00-06 Dr Gernot Blum Partner gernot.blum@d-fine.de phone +49-(0)69-90737-307 mobile +49-(0)151-148-193-07 d-fine GmbH Opernplatz 2 60313 Frankfurt am Main +49 (0) 69 90737 0 d-fine Ltd 28 King St London, EC2V 8EH +44 (0)20 7776 1000 d-fine (hk) Ltd 32 Hollywood Road Hong Kong, Central +852 371 158 00 17