Pakistan Food Security Bulletin Issue 4 July 2015 June 2016 September, 2016 The Pakistan Food Security Bulletin is produced by the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit of the World Food Programme as a contribution to periodic food security monitoring in the country. Highlights Total wheat production in Pakistan in 2015 16 has been estimated at 25.5 million metric tons (MT), slightly higher than the 2014 15 level of 25.1 million MT, showing a positive growth by 1.58 percent. Production of rice, the second main staple crop of Pakistan, has been estimated to be about 6.8 million MT milled basis, slightly less than the 2014 15 production of 7.0 million MT, showing a negative growth by 2.7 percent. Household economic access continues to be the major constraint, with 66.7 percent of households being unable to afford the minimum staple adjusted nutritious diet with their current food expenditure. Staple food prices have remained stable. Prices of wheat and wheat flour in June 2016 negligibly increased by 1.0 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, compared to the same time a year ago (July 2015). Significant progress has been noted in the return of displaced populations, with some 163,000 families have returned to their areas of origin during the period of March 2015 June 2016. However, 146,500 families are still remained in displacement, whereas the Government has announced a complete return by end of 2016. Situation Overview 1 2 In 2015 16, wheat (main staple) harvest of Pakistan stood at 25.5 million MT 1, slightly higher than the 2014 15 level of 25.1 million MT, while production of rice, the second main staple crop of Pakistan, has been estimated to be about 6.8 million MT milled basis, slightly less than the previous year s production of 7.0 million MT. Limited food access remains the main constraint of household food security. According to a Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform (MoPDR) and WFP joint report on Minimum Cost of the Diet study (CoD, 2016), two thirds (66.7 percent) of Pakistani households are unable to afford the nutritious diet with their current food expenditure 2. The latest report of the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform, UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) suggests that every four out of ten Pakistanis live in multidimensional poverty 3. On a positive note, food prices, particularly of staples have stabilized over the last year, thus easing pressure on economic access, especially for the poor and food insecure households. 3 With the improvement in law and order situation, a significant number of displaced populations have been returning to FATA, with some 113,000 families reported to have returned in 2015 and 50,000 families in the first half of 2016. However, 146,500 families are still remained in displacement. Issue 4, 2016 Page 1 of 10 1 Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2015 16. Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan. 2 Cost of Minimum Diet in Pakistan, 2016. Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms (MoPDR) and WFP. 3 Multidimensional poverty in Pakistan, 2016. MoPDR, UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI).
Minimum Cost of the Diet (CoD) Pakistan In Pakistan, the major challenge is economic access or affordability of the poorest and most vulnerable to food, coupled with poor food habits and preferences which determine the nutritional value of foods consumed. The Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform in collaboration with WFP has recently completed a study to calculate the cheapest possible cost of locally available diet that satisfies all nutritional requirements (energy, protein, fat and micro nutrients) of a household or individual. The study used data of the Household Integrated Expenditure Survey 2013 14 (HIES) for household food consumption, expenditure and average household size to estimate whether current households expenditure on food is sufficient to afford a nutritious diet. The study calculated the cost for three diets: a) an energy only diet, b) adequately nutritious diet, and c) staple adjusted nutritious diet across 28 divisions in four provinces: Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh, plus the Islamabad Capital Territory. The aim of the CoD study was to: Establish a nutritious diet that can be achieved based on foods available in the local market ; Determine the affordability of various diets based on actual household food expenditure patterns; and Estimate unaffordability at household level by division. Results of the study are produced for each of the provinces involved and Islamabad. Disaggregation into urban and rural areas was done for all the studied divisions except Islamabad. Following are the key findings of the CoD: 1. Food expenditure of 67.6 percent of households is below the staple adjusted nutritious diet threshold (SNUT). This means two out of every three households are unable to afford this diet with their current food expenditure. 2. Balochistan has the highest prevalence (83.4 percent) of households unaffordable to the stapleadjusted nutritious diet threshold (SNUT), which is followed by Sindh (70.8 percent), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (67.4 percent) and Punjab (65.6 percent). In Islamabad, despite the households have generally better affordability, the nonaffordability rate was still found among 31.5 percent of households (Figure 1). Geographical distribution of non affordability by division is presented in Map 1. 3. Generally, non affordability is higher in rural areas than in urban ones. However, a large proportion of urban households in all four provinces are still unable to afford the staple adjusted nutritious diet. 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% ABOVE THE SNUT DIET THRESHOLD BELOW SNUT DIET THRESHOLD, ABOVE NUT DIET THRESHOLD BELOW NUT DIET THRESHOLD, ABOVE CALORIE POVERTY LINE BELOW THE CALORIE POVERTY LINE 68.4% 3.4% 28.1% 34.5% 32.6% 29.2% 2.9% 3.1% 56.7% 63.6% 2.5% 64.4% 16.7% 1.3% 78.4% 32.4% 2.7% 60.2% 0.0% 6.0% 0.7% 3.9% 3.7% 4.7% Figure 1: Non affordability of a staple adjusted nutritious diet (SNUT), nutritious diet (NUT), and energy only diet (i.e. equivalent to the Calorie Poverty Line) based on total household food expenditure at the provincial level (Percentage of Households) It should be mentioned that the report presents the minimum cost of these diets focusing only on the purchasing power without taking into account food preferences, eating habits and intra household distribution. Therefore, it is plausible that the actual costs for meeting nutrient recommended requirements and the non affordability rates would be likely higher than that calculated in the study. Issue 4, July 2016 2 P age
Map 1: Non Affordability of a staple adjusted nutritious diet by Division Crop and Livestock Production Situation Crop situation Pakistan is an agricultural country. The sector contributed 19.8 percent in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and absorbing (42.3) percent of the country s total labor force. The agriculture sector growth is contingent on favorable weather conditions. There is a strong relationship between agriculture and climate temperature, precipitation, floods and other weather conditions that affect economic performance including agriculture production, commodity prices and economic growth 4. Pakistan has two cropping seasons 5, "Kharif" and Rabi. Agriculture sector recorded a negative growth of 0.19 percent in 2015 16 against a growth of 2.53 percent last years. Since crops consist of over 37 percent of the total agriculture production, the current negative growth of agriculture sector is mainly due to the 6.25 percent negative growth of crops. Cereal production Wheat production The wheat major Rabi crop production for 2015 16 has been recorded at 25.5 million MT and was grown on an estimated area of 9,260 thousand hectares 6 which is close 4 Pakistan Economic Survey 2015 2016 Ministry of Finance, GoP 5 Pakistan has two cropping seasons, "Kharif" being the first sowing season starting from May June and harvesting takes place during October December. Rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, pulses (moong, mash), millet (bajra) and Sorghum (jowar) are major Kharif s crops. "Rabi" season, the second sowing season, begins from Octoberto the target set by the Federal Committee on Agriculture and recorded a positive growth of 1.58 percent. Wheat support price has been maintained from the preceding year at PKR 1,300/40 kgs aiming at providing incentive to farmers to grow more wheat and achieve production targets. However, significant geographic disparities in wheat production exist across the country. According to SUPARCO 7, approximately three quarters (75 percent) of the national wheat production comes from Punjab, followed by Sindh (17 percent), KP (5.4 percent) and Balochistan (3.3 percent) (Figure 2). Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan 17% 5% 3% 75% Figure 2 : Wheat production by province (2015 16) December and harvesting takes place from April May. Wheat, gram, lentil (Masoor), tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are major "Rabi" crops. 6 Pakistan Economic Survey, 2015 16, Ministry of Finance, GOP. 7 Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission Issue 4 July 2016 Page 3 of 10
Map 2: Pakistan wheat production per capita by district Pakistan Food Security Bulletin Rice production Rice is Pakistan's second most important staple and third largest crop in terms of area sown, after wheat and cotton. It accounts for 3.1 percent in the value added in agriculture and 0.6 percent of GDP. Figure 3 presents the share of the national rice production by province in 2015 16. During 2015 16, rice crop was cultivated on an area of 2,748 thousand hectares showing a slight decrease by 4.9 percent from last year s area of 2,891 thousand hectares. Rice production remained at 6.8 million MT, indicating a slight decline by 2.7 percent from last year s record production of 7.0 million MT. Punjab and Sindh produced more than 88 percent of total rice production. The decrease in rice cultivated area is likely attributed to decreased economic returns to farmers on account of declined rice prices both domestically and globally during last year. Depressed prices and rising costs of production Punjab Sind KP Baluchistan 38% 2% 9% 51% encouraged farmers to substitute rice with fodder and maize. In addition, the heavy downpours in July 2015 also affected paddy cultivation. Livestock production Livestock is an important sub sector of agriculture in Pakistan. Nearly 8 million families are engaged in livestock production and earn more than 35 percent of their income from this activity. It is often the only source of income for the rural and most marginalized people in case of calamity, and thus, has a great potential for poverty alleviation and fetch foreign exchange for the country. In 2015 16, livestock accounts for 58.6 percent of the value added in overall agriculture, and 11.6 percent of GDP, similar to last year (11.7 percent) 8. Major livestock products are milk and meat. During 2015 2016, the gross production of milk and meat increased by 3.22 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, compared to 2014 2015. Markets and Food Prices During the reporting period (July 2015 June 2016), the market prices in Pakistan remained stable. Prices of cereals and most food commodities with the exception of pulses and non food commodities declined, mainly due to higher production and reduced petroleum prices, which ultimately eased the inflation rate based on consumer price index (CPI). Figure 3 : Rice production by province (2015 16) 8 Pakistan Economic Survey, 2015 16, Ministry of Finance, GOP Issue 4 July 2016 Page 4 of 10
Staple prices Prices of staples (wheat and wheat flour) remained stable with negligible fluctuations. Figure 4 shows a Year on Year Moong (YoY) percent change in the staple prices at four different points (July and Dec 2015; Jan and June 2016). In June 2016, compared to July 2015, the prices of wheat and wheat flour were marginally higher by 1 percent and 2 60% percent, respectively. The lowest price of wheat and wheat 50% flour was reported in at PKR 33.10 in July 2016 and PKR 40% 38.02 per kg in August 2016, respectively. Whereas, the 30% highest price of wheat and wheat four was recorded at PKR 35.64 per kg in February 2016, and PKR 40.29 per kg in 20% January 2016, respectively. In case of rice, Irri 6 and Basmati, the price was decreasing from July to December 2015, and remained stable till February 2016. Afterwards, a normal seasonal hike was observed until June 2016 9. In June 2016, Basmati and Irri 6 prices were lower by 12 percent and 5 percent, respectively compared to July 2015 10. 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Wheat Wheat Flour Irri 6 Basmati 10% 0% 10% 20% Jul 15 Cooking Oil chicken Live Masoor Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Mash Livestock and product prices Prices of livestock products remained less volatile and no significant price fluctuations were recorded from July 2015 to June 2016 (Figure 6). Compared to July 2015, the prices of mutton, beef and milk in June 2016 only nominally increased by 7 percent, 6 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Similarly, from January 2016 to June 2016, prices of mutton, beef and milk normally increased by 5 percent, 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively 11. Dec 15 Figure 5 : Prices of non cereal commodities (chicken, pulses, sugar and cooking oil, July 2015 June 2016) Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 15.0% 20.0% Jul 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Jun 16 Figure 4 : Change in staple prices (July 2015 June 2016) Prices of non cereal food commodities (chicken, pulses, sugar, cooking oil) Unlike cereals, a mix trend in prices of non cereal food commodities was observed during the same period. Figure 5 shows that prices of the majority of commodities were relatively stable or decreased, except pulses. A steep and steady rise was seen in pulses (Dal Mash). A two year comparison (June 2016 against June 2014), showed prices increased by 81 percent, whereas a six month comparison (June 2016 against January 2016), showed prices increased by 36 percent. On the other hand, prices of alive chicken, Dal Moong and cooking oil lowered by 23 percent, 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Sugar price remained stable. Significant fluctuations were seen in prices of poultry and its products, however, these variations were mostly seasonal. Beef & Mutton (PKR per kg) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Beef Mutton Milk Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Fuel prices In light of declining fuel prices globally, a significant reduction in prices of petroleum products has been observed in Pakistan. However, this reduction is still less than the level of decrease in the global market. Figure 7 shows a continuous decline from July to September 2015, followed by a negligible increase till December 2015. In 2016, a significant decline was observed in the first quarter, Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 Figure 6 : Livestock product prices (July 2015 June 2016) May 16 Jun 16 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 MILK (PkR per Liter) 9 High level of stocks, successive good harvests and declining exports were major causes of reduced rice prices in the domestic market. Amidst of reduction in rice prices, to keep farmers interest in growing rice, government has announced a support package of PKR 5000/acre for small farmers in 2015. 10 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 11 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Issue 4 July 2016 Page 5 of 10
and then the prices remained stable until June 2016. A oneyear comparison (June 2016 against June 2015), showed the price of Super Petrol and High Speed Diesel (HSD) equally decreased by 17 percent. A six month comparison (June 2016 against January 2016), showed petrol price were lower by 16 percent, and HSD price lower by 10 percent. The decline in fuel prices is one of contributing factors to the recent decline in food prices. 100.0 Terms of trade (ToT) 12 The ToT is measured as the quantity of wheat flour that can be purchased with one day s income of an unskilled wage laborer 13. Figure 8 shows that in June 2016, compared to July 2015, ToT negligibly improved by 1 percent. Positively, a more remarkable improvement of 6 percent was seen during January June 2016, mostly due to decreased wheat flour price since the beginning this year. This improvement in purchasing capacity suggested a slight improvement in household food security, particularly among the poorest households whose main income comes from wage labor. Price of wheat flour (PKR/kg) 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 45 40 35 30 25 20 Jul 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 TOT Oct 15 Nov 15 Nov 15 Petrol Dec 15 FATA Returns, Resilience and Recovery Dec 15 Thanks to the significant improvement in security and Government s systematic efforts, displaced families from Jan 16 Jan 16 Feb 16 Feb 16 Pakistan Food Security Bulletin HSD Figure 7 : Petroleum prices (July 2015 June 2016) Wheat flour price Mar 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 Apr 16 May 16 May 16 Jun 16 Figure 8: Terms of Trade (July 2015 June 2016) Jun 16 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 TOT (kgs) the various agencies in FATA started returning to their areas of origin in 2009. Some 163,000 displaced families have returned during March 2015 June 2016. However, 146,500 families are still remained in displacement, whereas the Government has announced a complete return by end of 2016. With this backdrop, livelihoods and food security of the returning populations have now become a major focus of the Government and development partners. WFP has been supporting these populations with an initial six months of food ration upon their return, which is followed by continued recovery support towards their sustained livelihoods. Most of these returns have taken place to Khyber and South Waziristan agencies. To support early resettlement of returning families, WFP, UNDP, UNICEF and FAO are jointly implementing several activities to build resilience and sustainable living conditions. The activities include support for rehabilitation of agriculture and infrastructure such as water courses desilting/rehabilitation, link roads rehabilitation, water and sanitation, nutrition support, and provision of basic services. A joint needs assessment was conducted by WFP, FAO, UNDP and UNICEF under the coordination and leadership of the FATA Return and Rehabilitation Unit in selected villages of Khyber and South Waziristan agencies to identify priority needs of villages for their recovery and resilience, and areas where activities can be implemented jointly. The assessment reports have served as the basis for programming relevant interventions. National Zero Hunger Initiative Acknowledging food security and nutrition as one of the major challenges faced by the country, in 2012 a National Zero Hunger Programme was launched by the Prime Minister, and consultations were carried out with national and international experts, civil society organizations and provincial representatives to outline relevant interventions. The programme was fully aligned with the Zero Hunger Challenge (ZHC), a global movement championed by the United Nations Secretary General which calls upon all governments and other stakeholders to combine their efforts towards eliminating hunger in our lifetimes. The National Zero Hunger Programme has been further reinforced in Pakistan with the approval of Vision 2025, which prioritizes food security and nutrition among the main areas of focus for the governmental development programmes during the period of 2015 2025. With the entry into force of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) globally, the Government of Pakistan is fully committed to align the National Zero Hunger Programme 12 Terms of Trade (ToT) is the ratio of the price of the primary income good relative to the price of the primary expenditure good, it simply measures the purchasing power of a particular livelihood group 13 The income base for computation of ToT is the average wage rate of five main cities (Lahore, Multan, Karachi, Peshawar & Quetta) Issue 4 July 2016 Page 6 of 10
with SDG2 ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition and promoting sustainable agriculture. Food Security and Nutrition Strategic Review A Food Security and Nutrition Strategic Review has started in the first half of 2016 in Pakistan. This strategic review is an independent, analytical and consultative exercise that identifies key challenges faced by Pakistan in achieving food security and improved nutrition, and provides prioritized areas for action for all humanitarian and development partners. The exercise is led by the Government of Pakistan and is guided by an Advisory Group which is co chaired by the Economic Affairs Division (EAD) and the United Nations Resident Coordinator. The Advisory Group includes representatives from the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms, Ministry of National Food Security and Research, Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination, and various representatives from academia, civil society and private sector. The technical work will be carried out by a research team comprised of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Pakistan s Aga Khan University (AKU). Under the Strategic Review, consultations will be carried out in all provinces and administrative areas, led by the respective planning and development departments, starting in early August 2016. Disaster Monitoring Pakistan is now in the midst of the monsoon season. Even though no major monsoon related disaster has been reported, some flash floods have occurred in mountain areas. As the monsoon progresses, the situation should be Map 3: Accumulated Rainfall Pakistan Food Security Bulletin closely monitored for early warning of possible floods, particularly in the flood plain areas. An earthquake occurred on 10 April 2016, which affected parts of KP, GB and FATA causing 6 deaths, 5 injuring persons and damaging 22 houses. Prior to this, there was a larger earthquake on 26 October 2015 with a magnitude of 7.5 on the Richter scale and with the epicenter in Afghanistan, which affected KP, FATA, GB, AJK and Punjab causing 280 deaths, 1,773 injuring persons and damaging 109,070 houses partially or completely, resulting in about half a million affected people in these areas. Some of these areas, particularly in Chitral district, had also been affected earlier by the monsoon floods, hence, households vulnerability had already been increased and their resilience to subsequent shocks had been weakened. Outlook for Summer Monsoon 2016 The El Nino phenomenon has weakened and La Nina is expected to develop during the summer 2016. Prevailing oceanic and atmospheric conditions are giving indications of good summer monsoon rainfall in the country. Based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of global circulation models, the outlook for the season is prepared at 80% confidence level for planning purposes. As per the analysis by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the outlook for the season (July September 2016) is as follows: Summer monsoon rainfall is likely to be 10 20 percent above normal average over the country for three months; More than average rainfall is expected over Punjab, KP, Sindh, AJK and Northeast Balochistan; Some extreme rainfall events are likely to occur in the catchment areas of major rivers and other parts of the country which may cause floods; There is a high probability of heavy downpour which may generate flash flooding along Suleman Range; Issue 4 July 2016 Page 7 of 10
Pakistan Food Security Bulletin Some heavy downpour events may cause flooding in urban big cities; and Some strong incursions of monsoon currents, coupled with high temperatures, may trigger Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides and Flash Floods in Upper KP and GB. Impact of El Niño El Nino is characterized with high temperatures and less rains. However, El Nino in Pakistan during the first half of this year was combined with Madden Julian Oscillation (winds which moved from west to east that give rise to inconsistent pattern of rain) which has strengthened the monsoon. The rains were relatively low in intensity compared to last year at the national level and well distributed across different regions. Due to inconsistent rain patterns, low rain was received in desert areas in Sindh and Punjab during the monsoon which otherwise was not expected. In September 2015, a second spell of heavy rain was received in Tharparkar which helped improve the ground water table and crop production in the area. The performance of agriculture sector in Pakistan has remained dismal during 2015 16 reporting a negative growth by 0.19 percent against 2.53 percent growth in 2014 15 which has been partially attributed to climatic factors. The growth of crops sub sector highly susceptive to climatic changes has declined by 6.25 percent; with the growth loss being experienced by all major crops (cotton, maize and rice), except wheat and sugarcane. To protect the farmers from the vagaries of unprecedented climate change and slowdown in commodity prices, the government announced Kissan Package in September, 2015 14. Impact of Weather Vagaries on Cotton Production The cotton crop production accounts for 1.0 percent in GDP and 5.1 percent in agriculture value addition. It also provides employment to some 40 percent of industrial labor force and brings $12 billion annually of foreign exchange from export of cotton and cotton products. Pakistan is the fourth largest cotton producer in the world with the third largest spinning capacity in Asia after China and India. A big chunk of population in Sindh and southern districts of Punjab are highly dependent on cotton, which is one of the major cash crops for farmers and a source of livelihood for men and women who work in the cotton fields. Due to frequent and untimely rainfall and cloudy weather for prolonged periods, coupled with high temperature between August and October 2015, cotton production reduced by 27.8 percent, and cotton grinning suffered by 21.26 percent in 2015 16. According to reports, adverse weather conditions affected plant growth, restricted pesticide spray which led to severe infestation by pink bollworm and whitefly. The population of these insects built up unexpectedly due to favorable weather conditions and has severely damaged the crops, resulting in low cotton output of 10.07 million bales against an estimated 15.49 million bales, which requires import of about USD 4 billion worth of cotton for domestic consumption. A decrease in crop area, increased cost of inputs including seeds, pesticides, fertilizers and low national prices are other factors accountable for this low output. Food Security Outlook Given the performance of subsectors of agriculture and the fact that negative agriculture growth is mainly driven by reduced cotton production, it can safely be anticipated that food supply is not going to be a critical issue in the country this year. However, the declining pattern due to uncertain weather conditions can cause a negative growth of important crops like wheat and other subsectors like livestock in the long run. The rainfall outlooks suggest a higher than normal rainfall in the monsoon season. This can generally be a positive indication for the ongoing Kharif crops. However, there could also be the likelihood of floods in some plain areas, which should be closely monitored. The staple prices have stabilized showing a very modest increase in the past year, which is likely to continue. It is likely to have a positive impact on economic access to food of the poor and vulnerable households. Similarly, the fuel prices have been declining during the last two years and have remained stable this year, and this trend is likely to continue in the second half of 2016. This suggests overall good stability in food prices and supporting household food security. It is important to closely monitor the situation so as to provide the necessary evidence for an informed response in case the food security situation deteriorates due to natural disasters or other unforeseen reasons. Though the supply of food may not become critical, important factors affecting food security remain: poverty, low education levels, extreme environmental conditions, and natural and man made disasters. Together, these factors deplete the affordability of households and limit their access to adequate nutritious food. 14 Pakistan Economic Survey 2015 16, Ministry of Finance, GoP Issue 4 July 2016 Page 8 of 10
Climate Risk and Food Security Analysis (CRFSA) in Pakistan Climate change has been recognized as a critical development, economic and investment challenge due to its potential impact on life, ecosystems as well as local, national and global economies. Pakistan has been one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impact. Food security is of significant concern in Pakistan and the impact of climate change to food security is well recognized. In this context, a Climate Risk and Food Security Analysis (CRFSA) study in Pakistan has been recently completed by the Ministry of Climate Change and the World Food Programme. Key findings include: Analytical domain: Analysis by agro ecological zones and livelihoods within each zone, has been found to be a more logical way for climate risk analysis. Climate trends and patterns: Since the 1960 s the mean temperatures in Pakistan have steadily increased by 0.35 degrees Celsius with an estimated average rate of 0.07 o C per decade. Rainfall has increased in some areas while others noted a decrease during this period. The variability of rainfall has increased geographically, across seasons, and annually in the past few decades. There has been a remarkable increase in variability of the monsoon rains and a temporal shift in the monsoon seasons as well as risks of extreme weather events. Climate impact on food security: Climate variability is causing different levels of impact on crop production. There has been a generally positive relationship between wheat production and temperature increase as well as between rice production and precipitation increase. Crops dependent on rainfall and rain fed agriculture are the ones most impacted by shifts in rainfall patterns and by either droughts or floods in different areas. Climate impact on livelihoods: Rural livelihoods, particularly those depending on rain fed agriculture are highly vulnerable to climate risks. Among the most vulnerable are the farm dependent households in drought prone areas. Hot spots of climate vulnerability include arid or semi arid areas of Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan, flood prone areas in Sindh, Balochistan and Punjab, mountain areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and the areas in FATA where the populations have diminished coping capacity due to fragile livelihoods (Map 4). The report also presents a set of policy and programme recommendations to address climate risks to livelihoods and food security. The report is expected to be released in September 2016. Map 4: Climate vulnerability to food security and livelihoods in Pakistan Issue 4 July 2016 Page 9 of 10
Tharpakar Update Thar drought like situation: Since 2013, Tharparkar has been affected by a drought like situation impacting their livelihoods, nutritional and health conditions. The total under 5 deaths were reported at 234 in 2013, 326 in 2014, and 398 in 2015, rising from 173 in 2011 and 188 in 2012. As per media reports, the incidence of under five deaths in Tharparkar is still on rise during the first half of 2016 with 243 deaths recorded. This may suggest a continuingly worsened health and nutrition situation following the start of the drought period 15. In response to the prevailing crisis situation in Tharparkar, WFP, under its current Community based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) programme and in partnership with the Department of Health and other partners, is treating moderate acute malnutrition among children aged 6 59 months as well as malnourished pregnant and lactating women in 44 union councils of the district. Recognizing the need for an integrated approach to address the underlying causes of food and nutrition insecurity in Tharparkar, WFP is also implementing livelihood enhancing cash based transfer programmes through which households are provided with cash to meet their food and other basic immediate needs, and providing trainings on nutrition, health, hygiene and dietary diversity. Community level rain water harvesting structure recently constructed with WFP s support received rain water for drinking purpose. For further information and feedback please contact Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Unit, UN World Food Programme, Islamabad, Pakistan. thivan.hoang@wfp.org, qasim.shah@wfp.org 15 Communication with District Health Officials in May 2016. Issue 4 July 2016 Page 10 of 10