Moor to Sea Locality Development

Moor to Sea Locality Resident population (2013) (population that live in the area) Registered population (2015) (population that are registered to a GP) 55,600 54,000 Population pyramid for Moor to Sea Locality compared to England average, 2015 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% England average Source: Resident population estimates based on 2013 LSOA population estimates, ONS. Registered population estimates derived from practice lists Aug 2015

Registered Population Projections Estimated registered population Change in estimated registered population 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 to 2020 2015 to 2025 2015 to 2030 0 to 14 7,923 8,342 8,541 8,477 5.3% 7.8% 7.0% 15 to 29 7,669 7,336 7,318 7,510-4.3% -4.6% -2.1% 30 to 44 8,119 8,088 8,438 8,493-0.4% 3.9% 4.6% 45 to 64 16,149 15,927 15,333 14,513-1.4% -5.1% -10.1% 65 to 84 12,199 13,376 14,417 15,453 9.7% 18.2% 26.7% 85+ 1,896 2,149 2,585 3,274 13.4% 36.3% 72.7% Total 53,955 55,219 56,631 57,720 2.3% 5.0% 7.0% Source: local registered population modelled against Sub National Population Projections (ONS)

Registered Population Projections Population pyramid for Moor to Sea Locality compared to England average, 2020 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 Average age (Years) Moor to Sea South Devon and Torbay England 2015 46.2 45.3 40.3 2020 47.1 46.0 41.0 2025 48.0 46.9 41.7 2030 48.7 47.6 42.4 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% England average Source: local registered population modelled against Sub National Population Projections (ONS)

2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation Least deprived area is in Bovey Tracey Part of Bovey Electoral Ward Most deprived area is in Dartmouth Part of Dartmouth Townstal Electoral Ward Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, ONS.

Moor to Sea Resident Profile Least vs Most Deprived Areas Measure Least deprived area (Bovey) Most deprived area (Dartmouth Townstal) Life expectancy at birth (2011-2013) 87.3yrs 81.6yrs Life expectancy at 65 (2011-2013) 25.9yrs 19.7yrs Population under 16 (2013) 15.9% 20.1% Population 85 and over (2013) 5.8% 2.7% Index of Multiple Deprivation score (2015) 4.0 30.5 % income deprived (2015) 4.5% 23.3% % employment deprived (2015) 6.5% 19.8% Jobseekers Allowance Claimant rate (2011-2013) 1.1% 3.1% Emergency admission rate per 10,000 (2011/12-2013/14) 694 1,271 General fertility rate per 1,000 (2009-2012) 32.8 64.2 Source: 2015 English Indices of multiple deprivation, Births data, ONS. PCMD, SUS, HSCIC.

Moor to Sea Resident Population Profile Least vs Most Deprived Areas, 2013 Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, 2013 Population estimates, ONS.

Moor to Sea Least Deprived Small Area Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, ONS.

Moor to Sea Most Deprived Small Area Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, ONS.

Estimated Burden of Disease Estimated burden of disease Number of patients with disease; known or not known to primary care 2015 2020 2025 2015 to 2020 change 2015 to 2025 change Coronary heart disease 3,498 3,832 4,191 9.6% 19.8% Chronic kidney disease 5,510 6,038 6,694 9.6% 21.5% People aged 65 and over predicted to have: Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes 1,758 1,936 2,111 10.1% 20.0% A longstanding health condition caused by a stroke 325 363 408 11.7% 25.5% Dementia 966 1,090 1,299 12.8% 34.5% Depression 1,209 1,327 1,455 9.7% 20.3% Severe depression 382 419 478 9.8% 25.2% A longstanding health condition caused by bronchitis and emphysema 238 263 289 10.5% 21.5% A moderate or severe visual impairment 1,214 1,361 1,568 12.1% 29.2% A moderate or severe, or profound, hearing impairment 4,281 4,824 5,629 12.7% 31.5% Source: Registered populations applied to: CHD, London Health Observatory. CKD prevalence, Public Health England. People aged 65 and over, POPPI

Community Overview Source: 2014/15 South Devon and Torbay Joint Strategic Needs Assessment

Totality of Health Service Use: Totnes & Dartmouth GP Consultations: 175,584 Community Therapy and Nursing Services: 39,321 Secondary Care Outpatient Appointments: 32,896 A&E and MIU Attendances: 10,747 Radiology events: 8,634 Elective Acute Care: 3,762 Non Elective Acute Care: 2,083 Intermediate Care: 1,932 Figures relate to activity not people and is based on available NHS data Community Hospital Admissions: 739

Totality of Health Service Use: Ashburton, Buckfastleigh, Bovey Tracey and Chudleigh GP Consultations: 178,665 Community Therapy and Nursing Services: 36,490 Secondary Care Outpatient Appointments: 33,709 A&E and MIU Attendances: 7,802 Radiology events: 7,460 Elective Acute Care: 3091 Intermediate Care: 2,964 Non Elective Acute Care: 1862 Figures relate to activity not people and is based on available NHS data Community Hospital Admissions: 402

Totality of Health Service Use: Moor to Sea Locality GP Consultations: 354,249 Community Therapy and Nursing Services: 76,841 Secondary Care Outpatient Appointments: 66,605 A&E and MIU Attendances: 18,549 Radiology events: 16,094 Elective Acute Care: 6,853 Intermediate Care: 4,896 Non Elective Acute Care: 3,945 Figures relate to activity not people and is based on available NHS data Community Hospital Admissions: 1141

A New Model of Care for Moor to Sea

Discharge support from hospital to home Palliative care Encourage Self care, healthy lifestyles & maintain independence Falls prevention Provide a Single Point of Access and Coordination Reactive care coordination of people with deteriorating complex health issues Proactive care coordination of people with complex needs and frail elderly Integrated medical management of people with complex comorbidities Proactive integrated long term conditions support

Model of Care for Moor to Sea Complex co-morbidities supported in community Multi-skilled and multi-functional workforce Co-location - integrated care teams providing a holistic offer, improved coordination, multi-disciplinary and outcomes-based approach to care. Every Contact Counts maximising self-care and health promotion; becomes embedded in the community. Primary and community care brought together as a single service offer. Accountable for all community-based care of the population Aim 85% of all health and care need met in the community

Model of care for Moor to Sea Enhance existing services, develop community assets. DGH continue to provide radiology, A&E, elective care, OP Remote access to specialist advice for GPs and other care professionals Ability to extend scope and ambition of care model according to aspirations Operational delivery phased to enable a transition over time to new ways of working Gradually push boundaries of what we can achieve