Introduction International security, armaments and disarmament in 2010

Introduction International security, armaments and disarmament in 2010 BATES GILL I. Overview Assessing the past year While the past year saw some encouraging steps in relation to nuclear disarmament and in the resolution of some regional conflicts, overall the world faced continuing and growing challenges to security, stability and peace. The financial crisis and economic recession that affected most of the globe appeared to have little effect on levels of military expenditure, arms production or arms transfers. On the other hand, the crisis probably did undermine the willingness and ability of major governments and multilateral institutions to invest other, non-military resources to address the challenges and instabilities that threaten societies and individuals around the world. The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan continued. Some greater stability came to Iraq, and the United States announced the withdrawal of combat troops from Iraqi cities and villages in June 2009. Conditions worsened in Afghanistan. The USA more than doubled its troop levels in Afghanistan from 32 000 at the end of 2008 to 68 000 at the end of 2009 with US President Barack Obama authorizing the deployment of an additional 30 000 troops in December 2009. Across the world, 17 major armed conflicts carried on in such places as Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Palestinian territories, Pakistan, the Philippines and Somalia. Major armed conflicts involving Rwanda and Uganda began anew in 2009. Fighting in Sri Lanka between government forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam came to an end in 2009, but some 250 000 civilians were caught up in the fighting with significant losses of innocent life. Violence in Pakistan s Swat Valley region escalated in 2009, to include a major Pakistani military offensive against Taliban insurgents; hundreds of thousands of civilians were displaced and hundreds killed as a result of the fighting. Some of the greatest violence occurred not in traditionally defined, politically motivated conflict, but rather between Mexican authorities and criminal organizations involved in the drug trade, leaving thousands dead. SIPRI Yearbook 2010: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security

4 SIPRI YEARBOOK 2010 The year saw setbacks on the arms control and disarmament front as well. The Democratic People s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea) defied the expressed will of the United Nations as well as the concerns of neighbouring states by test-launching missiles in April, May and July and by carrying out a nuclear explosion in May. North Korea announced that it would permanently leave the Six Party Talks, informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it would no longer cooperate with it, asked IAEA inspectors to leave the country and stated that it intends to reactivate the partially dismantled nuclear facility at Yongbyon. Concerns intensified throughout the year about Iran s nuclear intentions, especially in light of revelations in 2009 that the country was building a previously undeclared uranium enrichment plant, housed in an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base near the city of Qom. The past year saw some promising developments. In April President Obama s speech in Prague set forth a commitment to advance towards a world free of nuclear weapons. This set the tone for progress in Russian US negotiations for further reductions in their strategic arsenals and helped lead to the landmark adoption by the UN Security Council, with 14 heads of state and government at the table, of Resolution 1887. The resolution reaffirmed the support of the Security Council for the goals of the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), including nuclear disarmament and strengthening of the NPT regime, and urged action to reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism. Adoption of the resolution marked the first time since the mid-1990s that the Security Council put in place comprehensive and politically binding commitments on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. In part as a result of these milestones, Obama received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 for, in the words of the Chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, his vision of and work for a world free from nuclear weapons. In addition, during 2009 two nuclear weapon-free zone treaties entered into force: the Treaty of Semipalatinsk in Central Asia and the Treaty of Pelindaba in Africa. The Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva was also able to agree, after a 12-year stalemate, on a draft programme of work, including the negotiation of a fissile material cut-off treaty. However, as of the end of 2009, the CD had failed to take the necessary procedural steps to actually begin substantive negotiations. In other positive developments, the peace process that was launched in Burundi in late 2008 held throughout 2009, free of major outbreaks of renewed violence. Key themes of SIPRI Yearbook 2010 In this volume, the 41st edition of the SIPRI Yearbook, 34 leading experts from 16 countries examine and analyse these and other critical develop-

INTRODUCTION 5 ments of the past year in such fields as international and regional security, armed conflict, multilateral peace operations, military spending, the arms industries, the conventional arms trade, non-proliferation, arms control, and confidence- and security-building measures. The core of the volume is 12 chapters organized in three main parts. Part I sets the scene by examining some of the key developments in international security related to conflict, conflict prevention and regional security relationships. Part II presents a broad range of information and analysis on global, regional and national trends in armaments, including on military expenditure, arms production, the arms trade and nuclear forces. Part III takes measure of developments on the disarmament scene over the past year, including assessments of nuclear non-proliferation and arms control, efforts to reduce chemical- and biological-related threats, conventional arms control, and controlling the transfer of other sensitive goods and technologies that may pose security concerns. The chapters in this volume are supplemented by extensive appendices and annexes that provide further data and documentation on major armed conflict, multilateral peace operations, military spending, arms producers, the conventional arms trade, nuclear arsenals, international arms embargoes, arms control and non-proliferation agreements, multilateral security institutions and a chronology of major events related to international arms control, armaments and disarmament in 2009. As was the case for SIPRI Yearbook 2009, this year s edition again presents the Global Peace Index (GPI) developed by the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace in association with the Economist Intelligence Unit. Three important themes emerge from the research and analysis in SIPRI Yearbook 2010. 1. The world s attention is increasingly drawn to the challenges and prospects for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. Both expectations and fears in relation to nuclear weapons were heightened by, among other important developments, the April 2009 Prague speech by President Obama, the detonation of a nuclear device by North Korea in May 2009, ongoing disarmament negotiations between Russia and the USA, and heightened concerns over Iran s nuclear activities. While there are hopes for continued nuclear disarmament in the future, nuclear weapons maintained their central place in the security planning of those states which possess them. 2. In the face of myriad security challenges, many of them arising from non-state actors and a continued diffusion of the means of violence, the multilateral institutions charged with mitigating these challenges continue their struggle to achieve mandates, realize reform and confront new realities. As discussed in this volume, this trend is starkly illustrated by the

6 SIPRI YEARBOOK 2010 challenges and choices facing multilateral peace operations, the transatlantic security alliance, the Common Security and Defence Policy of the European Union (EU), the international non-proliferation regime and disarmament process, export control mechanisms and multilateral arms embargoes. 3. Despite the financial crisis and its aftershocks around the globe in 2008 and 2009, sustained upward trends in military spending, arms production and arms transfers continued essentially uninterrupted. The military burden the share of military spending within gross domestic product likewise increased significantly. II. SIPRI Yearbook 2010: highlights and findings SIPRI Yearbook 2010 begins with a feature essay by one of the world s foremost authorities on questions of arms control and disarmament, Ambassador James E. Goodby. In light of the increased attention now focused on these issues, his chapter provides a timely and insightful tour d horizon of the many near- and longer-term challenges and opportunities for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation and the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. The chapter examines both procedural and political issues of nuclear disarmament, and reviews and analyses such important issues as Russian US bilateral arms reductions; future multilateral disarmament, global and regional agreements necessary to govern reductions and the elimination of nuclear weapons; and the role of deterrence in a world free of nuclear weapons. The chapter also provides a short history of US approaches to nuclear weapons and arms control to demonstrate how a country s views can change over time to be more favourably disposed towards disarmament and the elimination of nuclear weapons. The chapter reaches some sober but hopeful conclusions. Recognizing that nuclear weapons have not lost their doomsday qualities, Goodby nevertheless sees a time of opportunity ahead. Importantly, in his view, world leaders are increasingly of the mind that, whatever advantages nuclear weapons may have, these are increasingly outweighed by their disadvantages. He clearly makes the case that eliminating nuclear weapons will in no way be an easy task. Yet, because the question today is how can it be done? rather than should it be done?, Goodby believes that the international community is in a far better position than ever before in the nuclear age to take steps towards a world without nuclear weapons. Security and conflicts The three chapters of part I focus on important developments in international security. This year these chapters examine the linkages between

INTRODUCTION 7 crime and conflict, the civilian dimension of peace operations and Euro- Atlantic security institutions. Focusing on the interrelationship of crime and conflict in many parts of the world today, chapter 2 opens by making the point that crime and criminal violence can be as great a threat to stability as traditionally defined, politically motivated armed conflict. To elaborate and examine the crime conflict linkage, and encourage further analysis of this relationship, the chapter first provides an overview of the topic, outlines global trends in crime and criminal violence, and discusses the nature and scale of links between crime and armed conflict. In addition, it provides a number of case studies to analyse the causes and impacts of organized crime within armed conflicts (as in Afghanistan and Somalia) and to compare and contrast armed conflict with intense criminal violence of a comparable scale (as in Mexico). In summarizing its principal findings, the author concludes with the reminder that criminal violence is far more common than armed conflict or one-sided violence against civilians. At the same time, it cannot be assumed that close associations will develop between insurgent groups and organized criminals in some cases that may be true, but not in all. In addition, large-scale criminal activity in conflict and post-conflict areas may help fund armed opposition groups, but they can also profit other political actors including those loyal to recognized government authorities. In many cases, state dysfunction, rather than criminal activity itself, may be the more important factor in explaining violent instability, including criminal violence. As such, combating organized crime in conflict and post-conflict settings cannot be separated from overall efforts aimed at conflict resolution. At a minimum, far more study and resources should be devoted to understanding and responding to the linkages between criminal activity and traditionally defined armed conflict. Chapter 2 is followed by two important appendices. One, prepared by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), presents data and analysis on the patterns in major armed conflict from 2000 to 2009. Two conflicts appear in this appendix which did not appear in 2008: Rwanda and Uganda. The other appendix is the Global Peace Index. First appearing in SIPRI Yearbook 2009, the GPI employs 23 indicators to rank 149 countries by their relative state of peace. New Zealand stands at the top of the index as the most peaceful country; Iraq is ranked as the least peaceful. The authors of chapter 3 provide in-depth analysis and information related to multilateral peace operations and peacebuilding activities. This includes a highly informative appendix that presents extensive details on the 54 multilateral peace missions in operation during 2009. This year the chapter takes a close look at the increasingly important role that civilians play as part of peace operations and peacebuilding worldwide. The authors

8 SIPRI YEARBOOK 2010 explain the drivers behind the expansion in the civilian dimension in peace operations and describe in particular the efforts undertaken in this regard by the United Nations, the European Union, the African Union and individual states to meet the growing civilian gap in peace operations and peacebuilding around the world. The chapter uses the example of the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) to highlight the systemic challenges for civilian operations, not least in terms of planning, recruitment, deployment and coherency of mission mandate. The authors find that, 10 years after the seminal Brahimi Report proposed comprehensive reforms for the UN peacekeeping system including an early call to strengthen civilian capacities in peace operations the international community s record is decidedly mixed. The number of civilians mandated for roles in UN missions has increased, as has the number of civilian peace missions operated by regional organizations. However, these efforts still lack conceptual coherency and intra- and inter-organizational cooperation, and major operational challenges exist both at headquarters and in the field. Noting that the problem is far more than deploying the right experts in the right numbers, the chapter concludes cautiously: the emergent ambition to significantly reform and improve civilian operations is timely and much needed, but should not have over-expectations of success unless fundamental systemic, bureaucratic and operational challenges can be dealt with. Chapter 4 examines the situation facing Euro-Atlantic security institutions at a time when they are undergoing considerable change, reflection and reassessment. The authors note that the current situation has its roots in longer-term trends, but that current rethinking about Euro-Atlantic security institutions has been hastened and made more urgent by the August 2008 Georgia Russia conflict, the ongoing challenges of conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. In particular, the chapter delves into recent developments and difficulties for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the EU and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Based on this analysis, the authors offer a number of findings and recommendations. Euro-Atlantic security institutions can justly claim credit for many successes, such as their role in the peaceful reunification of Europe and managing conflict in the Western Balkans. However, new challenges await, not least those associated with newly emerging global and transnational security threats and relations with Russia and the other post- Soviet states. In the coming year, all three institutions will undertake important formal and informal reviews of their security strategies for the future. While the authors recognize that the current security-related challenges to the Euro-Atlantic area within that area, at its borders and in the wider global environment argue for a new realism, that tendency should

INTRODUCTION 9 not lead to a lack of solidarity or, worse, to defeatism. At the same time, the authors note that a narrow geographic focus on Euro-Atlantic security cannot be sustained: transatlantic partners must recognize and act on the global diffusion of power and, accordingly, seek solutions to security challenges through cooperation with global institutions where other, non- Western interests are represented. Military spending and armaments The four chapters of part II provide some of the world s most in-depth and authoritative open-source analysis and information on military expenditure, arms production, conventional arms transfers and nuclear forces. Chapter 5 documents and explains developments in military spending worldwide and region by region, with a special focus on these developments in 2009. More in-depth consideration is given this year to the effect of resource revenues on spending in Nigeria, Chile, Venezuela and Iraq and the impact of the conflict in Afghanistan on spending by the United Kingdom, the USA and Afghanistan itself. Detailed appendices for this chapter provide military expenditure figures for 165 countries for 2000 2009 and the reporting of military expenditure data to the United Nations and to SIPRI for 2001 2009. Chapter 5 finds that global military spending rose to $1531 billion in 2009, 6 per cent higher in real terms than in 2008. Military spending worldwide was 49 per cent higher in 2009 than it was in 2000. In general, the global financial crisis has apparently not had an effect on military spending by major powers such as the USA (which accounted for 54 per cent of the increase in world military spending in 2009) and Russia, nor on the military spending of emerging regional powers, such as Brazil, China and India. Indeed, 14 of the top 15 military spenders increased their military expenditure in 2009 over 2008. Developments within the world s arms-producing sector are described and analysed in chapter 6. Special focus is given to trends in mergers and acquisitions within the sector and to an extensive assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession on the arms industry. This chapter also provides appendices cataloguing the SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing companies for 2008 and the major corporate acquisitions in the arms industries of member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2009. In step with the continuing increases in military spending noted in chapter 5, global arms production also continues to rise suggesting no immediate impact from the financial crisis and recession. The world s largest weapon producers had arms sales of $385 billion in 2008, an increase of $39 billion over 2007. The top arms producers have seen annual

10 SIPRI YEARBOOK 2010 increases in arms sales every year since 2002. For the first time since SIPRI began listing the world s top arms producers more than 20 years ago, a non-us firm BAE Systems tops the register. Russian arms companies had a strong showing in 2008, and firms delivering military-related services, armoured vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles continued to prosper. With continued growth in military spending, ongoing major conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the monopsonistic nature of the arms industry, this sector looks likely to emerge relatively unscathed from the financial crisis and economic recession affecting much of the globe. Chapter 7 presents the world s most comprehensive, open-source data set and in-depth analysis of the global trade in major conventional weapons. In addition to offering insights on the main trends in international arms transfers, the chapter also provides more specific analysis on major supplier states the USA, Russia, Germany, France and the UK, which together accounted for 76 per cent of the world s arms exports and gives special focus this year to arms transfers to North African states and to Iraq. The chapter s appendices include data and information on the suppliers and recipients of major conventional weapons worldwide, on the financial value of the international arms trade and on certain mechanisms such as the UN Register of Conventional Arms and other multilateral and national reporting systems that are intended to bring more transparency to the arms trade. The chapter documents a continuing upward trajectory for the international arms trade: in 2005 2009 the volume of major conventional weapon transfers increased by 22 per cent in comparison with 2000 2004. China, India, the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea), the United Arab Emirates and Greece were the top five recipients in 2005 2009, followed by Israel, Singapore, the USA, Algeria and Pakistan. The authors also find that the leading supplier positions of the USA and Russia are not likely to face a serious challenge in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, their share of global arms exports is declining over time as a growing number of important second-tier suppliers find success in this marketplace. The chapter predicts that China, which has been the leading arms importer for much of the past decade, will fall from its top spot as its arms imports decline. The chapter also points to evidence of competitive behaviour in certain acquisitions by states in Latin America, the Middle East, North Africa and South East Asia, all regions that have seen significant growth in their arms imports in recent years. Chapter 8 assesses developments in doctrine and deployments of the nuclear forces of the eight countries with nuclear weapons the USA, Russia, China, the UK, France, India, Pakistan and Israel and also provides detailed information on North Korea s military nuclear capabilities and gives special focus to the nuclear explosion it carried out in May 2009.

INTRODUCTION 11 The chapter provides extensive analysis and numerous tables on the current nuclear arsenals and delivery systems of the eight nuclear-armed states, plus detailed appendices on global stocks of fissile materials and on nuclear explosions in 1945 2009. The chapter notes that at the beginning of 2010 the eight nuclear weapon states possessed more than 7500 operational nuclear weapons, with almost 2000 of them maintained in a state of high operational alert. Counting all nuclear warheads, including those in operation, spares, those in storage and those intact warheads slated for dismantlement, these eight countries possess a total in excess of 22 000 warheads, more than 90 per cent of which are in the arsenals of Russia and the USA. A slight decline in the number of operational warheads results primarily from disarmament by Russia and the USA pursuant to the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT). On the other hand, the chapter concludes with the finding that, despite increased attention to global disarmament, the nuclear weapon states are committed to retaining their nuclear arsenals for many years to come and are taking steps to modernize these forces. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament Part III of this volume examines issues related to the control and diminution of weapons, weapon technologies, and other weapon-related materials and technologies. Specifically, these chapters consider nuclear nonproliferation and arms control, efforts to reduce chemical- and biologicalrelated threats, conventional arms control, and controlling the transfer of other sensitive goods and technologies that may pose security concerns. Chapter 9 provides a comprehensive overview and analysis of the developments in 2009 in nuclear arms control and non-proliferation. It describes and analyses a range of important developments: Russian US arms control talks, the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programmes, suspected undeclared nuclear activities in Myanmar and Syria, and preparations for the 2010 Review Conference of the NPT. In presenting its findings, the author flags the fact that there was some increased momentum for nuclear arms control in 2009 the beginning of formal negotiations on strategic weapon reductions between Russia and the USA and the entry into force of two new nuclear weapon-free zones. However, the year saw little to no progress in addressing concerns related to nuclear programmes in Iran and North Korea. Moreover, the CD in Geneva, which was able to agree to a draft programme of work for the first time in more than a decade, was unable to agree on the additional procedural steps necessary to actually begin substantive negotiations. Even Russian US negotiations on the treaty to succeed the 1991 Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START Treaty)

12 SIPRI YEARBOOK 2010 were not without complications. Sticking points included the monitoring mechanisms for verifying numerical limits and Russia s concerns related to the USA s advanced conventional weapon systems. The START Treaty expired in December 2009 and no follow-on was agreed until the New START Treaty was signed in April 2010. Overall, however, 2009 marked higher expectations about nuclear arms control, especially as top political leaders around the world began to give serious attention to further nuclear arms reductions and even the possibility of eliminating nuclear weapons in the long-term future. The key question for 2010 and beyond is how to put these expectations into action. Chapter 10 focuses on international efforts to reduce threats from chemical and biological materials. The chapter first assesses the evolution of threat perceptions related to chemical and biological materials. The chapter also describes and analyses developments in 2009 related to the control and disarmament of chemical and biological weapons and to allegations of chemical and biological weapon development or use, such as in Afghanistan, Algeria, Israel, North Korea and Sri Lanka. The chapter also outlines efforts aimed at chemical and biological warfare prevention, response and remediation by such organizations as the United Nations, the European Union, the scientific and public health communities, and the private sector. The authors reach a number of interesting conclusions. Threat perceptions related to chemical and biological materials are moving away from an overwhelming concern with the lethality of a given agent to a broader concern with not only loss of life, but also the effects of a chemical or biological attack on public order, critical infrastructure and the environment, with each type of threat requiring different approaches for prevention, remediation and response. In addition, the international community is moving away from its traditional focus on identifying and eliminating state military programmes for chemical and biological weapons, and placing greater emphasis on the control and oversight of the trade and use of sensitive chemical and biological materials. The chapter flags continuing efforts in this regard to develop licensing mechanisms to oversee activities in scientific research, as well as within the chemical industry and biotechnology sectors such as work related to gene synthesis which have potential security implications. The authors suggest caution not to exaggerate the potential damage to life and property that could result from biological and chemical attacks, and that more should be done by public authorities to promote a more balanced and realistic understanding of the threats posed by chemical and biological weapons. Conventional arms control is the central focus of chapter 11. The chapter provides a detailed examination of important developments in the evolving architecture of arms control in Europe, such as the future of the 1990

INTRODUCTION 13 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty), developments in the Corfu process on European security launched in 2009, and Russian proposals for a new European security pact. In addition, the chapter discusses developments within the OSCE, with a focus on confidenceand security-building measures and the reduction of surplus stockpiles of munitions, small arms and toxic rocket fuel. The chapter also offers an indepth assessment of developments related to the control of anti-personnel mines (APMs), explosive remnants of war and cluster munitions. The chapter finds that the prospects for conventional arms control in Europe are more hopeful than in past years, although the CFE Treaty remains in abeyance and its prospects uncertain. The Corfu process has given new momentum to the importance of conventional arms control within the OSCE. Also importantly, the appointment by the Obama Administration of a Special Envoy for Conventional Armed Forces in Europe signals renewed US commitment to conventional arms control in consultation with NATO, European partners and Russia. As for the control of inhumane, non-discriminating weapons such as APMs and cluster munitions, the chapter is likewise encouraging that intergovernmental bodies, national governments, and non-governmental and grassroots organizations are making progress in questioning the military utility of such weapons and in broadening global norms against their use. Chapter 12 brings attention to controlling the transfer of goods, technologies and other items mainly transfers of dual-use goods, but also items with purely military uses which raise security-related concerns. The chapter outlines the controls put forward within the United Nations on proliferation-related items and also describes and analyses developments over the past year within the major supply-side export control regimes, with a special focus on their changing mission and on some of the common challenges they face, including dealing with intangible technology transfers such as know-how and software. It also examines how the EU and the EU member states have decided to address the challenges inherent in controlling cross-border, security-related transfers. As the authors point out, while export controls remains a commonly used term for the control of weapons and other non-weapon but nevertheless potentially sensitive security-related items, the term transfer controls which relates to such questions as transit, trans-shipment and brokering is a more accurate and useful concept to employ. To put it another way, the authors make the key point that who is involved between supplier and recipient? must now be a central aspect of any effort to understand and possibly stem the flows of security-related goods, technologies and know-how. An appendix includes data, information and analysis on the 29 mandatory multilateral arms embargoes in force during 2009.

14 SIPRI YEARBOOK 2010 III. Conclusions The 12 chapters of SIPRI Yearbook 2010 and their accompanying appendices and documentation provide the single most comprehensive and indepth assessment of developments in international security, armaments and disarmament over the past year. As the analyses in this edition of the Yearbook suggest, the year began hopefully for many with the advent of a new US Administration. In addition, some positive momentum has been generated around the goals of arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation, resulting in important declarations and concrete actions in support of those goals. However, the past year has also demonstrated just how difficult it is to make continued progress in meeting the many challenges that the world faces today. Taken as a whole, the contributions to this year s edition of the SIPRI Yearbook describe a world at a critical turning point. On questions of international security, the world faces continuing changes in the nature of armed conflict and instability towards greater diffusion of the means and actors involved in violence. Civilian contributions to peace operations are much needed, but the international community continues to struggle with how to best provide them. Meanwhile, the Euro-Atlantic security partnership also struggles to define new roles and relationships consistent with the threat environment for the coming decades. Many of these challenges are amply demonstrated in the ongoing difficulties in stabilizing Afghanistan. Future directions in armaments and disarmament are likewise at a critical stage. Continued upward growth in military spending, arms production and arms transfers will depend on how the global financial situation changes in the year to come, as well as on developments in the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. The year 2010 will be an important one for disarmament and non-proliferation as well, with the world watching for progress in bilateral disarmament between Russia and the USA: continuing differences between the two sides over US missile defence deployments may well derail further progress. The world will also look for progress on disarmament and tightened controls against would-be proliferators in the context of a successful NPT Review Conference. The CD in Geneva will need to begin substantive negotiations as called for in the draft programme of work adopted in 2009, such as on a fissile material cut-off treaty, but it is not clear that the body will be able to do so. The April 2010 summit of world leaders in Washington, DC, to address nuclear security will likewise attract great attention for what it says (or does not say) about the need to secure nuclear materials from falling in to the wrong hands. More broadly, new proliferation challenges have already begun to emerge in the area of dual-use technologies, requiring the international community to develop more effective mechanisms to prevent their misuse.

INTRODUCTION 15 Looking ahead, SIPRI will continue to closely monitor, analyse and put forward recommendations on these and other emergent trends. In doing so, through the SIPRI Yearbook and other channels, SIPRI aims to fulfil its mandate to provide data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.