Regulatory Challenges Associated with Deployment of Small Cell Heterogeneous Networks Aligning Small Cell Incentives - Cambridge Wireless Small Cell SIG 19 Sept 2013 Robindhra Mangtani, Principal Advisor, Ofcom robindhra.mangtani@ofcom.org.uk
2 Demand for mobile data Variations in demand forecasts Mobile data use is predicted to grow significantly Particularly over the long-term, there are very different upper and low bound forecasts for how mobile data demand will grow but more agreement on the short-term: Ericsson s latest mobile data forecast shows that global mobile data traffic doubled during 2012 and that trend is forecast to continue, resulting in a compound annual growth rate of 50% between 2012 and 2018, resulting in a 12-fold increase the amount of mobile data traffic by the end of that period forecasts from our UHF strategy for the UK alone were slightly lower, the effect of compound growth and the virtuous circle discussed previously means that their mid-point forecast for the UK is still a predicted 80-fold increase by 2030 We are conducting a further review of the Real Wireless demand study findings and anticipate providing a further update in the winter of 2013 UK mobile data forecast Source: Real Wireless
Demand for mobile data Pyramid of provision In response to consumers growing data demand mobile networks are becoming more heterogeneous and diverse As mobile networks look for ways of expanding capacity they are becoming more disaggregated as networks rely on more than simply macro cells Instead of simple networks of large cellular transmitters (macro cells) mobile networks increasingly use a combination of different transmitter/receiver networks Macro cell 10s km Wide area coverage by cellular systems such as 3G and LTE These components are often being delivered by fixed operators or by other providers meaning that MNOs are establishing alliances with them Micro/pico cell Indoor commercial WiFi hotspots, Outdoor WiFi and new shared spectrum Domestic WiFi homespots e.g. femtocells 100s m Metro or local area coverage by cellular systems (3G, LTE) and, in some cases, outdoor Wi- Fi <100 m Indoor local area coverage by Wi-Fi and, in some cases (e.g. trains), 3G & LTE too Outdoor coverage through Wifi and in future using new shared spectrum ~10 m Indoor coverage by Wi-Fi or femtocells connected to fixed broadband Thus mobile networks are becoming heterogeneous networks or HetNets, i.e. networks that are integrated with macro networks allowing for coverage, speed and interoperability between different network types 3
4 Demand for mobile data Factors behind heterogeneity Heterogeneity is being driven by a range of factors Costs Performance Location Capacity Coverage Although more spectrum is being used as well as evolving network capabilities there are inevitably limits on how much spectrum is available and how much it can be used economically As mobile data is used for a wider range of purposes varying demands are being put on networks, eg video use requires more bandwidth than browsing As mobile data usage becomes more ubiquitous, there is a need for it to be used across a wider selection of locations Areas where there is particularly high demand such as shopping or business centres have necessitated searching for ways to add capacity without building new macro cells 4G services in particular may suffer isolated hotspots that smaller cells can help solve 5G is expected to rely on new cell networks to meet performance objectives and demand As mobile data demand evolves, the extra flexibility and low costs of heterogeneous networks have meant they ve been deployed to meet growing and changing demand
5 Impact of network evolution Small cell example - WiFi provision MNOs are increasingly using Wi-Fi facilities from fixed operators BSkyB, BT, O2, EE, Arqiva and Virgin Media operate the majority of public Wi-Fi hotspots Whereas in the past white label providers operated most public WiFi hotspots, out-of-the-home WiFi provision has increasingly become consolidated around fixed broadband providers, O2 & EE BSkyB operates the largest number of public hotspots (with over 16000 Cloud hotspots), followed by BT (over 4000) and O2 (approximately 1700 in June 2012, with stated plans to operate more by the end of 2013). BT s 5.5m FON homespots also act as public hotspots for its broadband customers (and for other FON customers) These operators manage access to their network in different ways: the Cloud and O2 hotspots are free for any registered user; free access to BT WiFi and Virgin Media hotspots is reserved for BT and Virgin Media customers and customers of partner MNOs e.g. Wi-Fi operators Number of hotspots Free to users or pay-as-you-go? Concessions to customers Concessions to partner MNOs customers Fixed broadband providers c16000 Open basic access c4,000 Pay-as-you-go Unlimited free access for Sky Broadband Unlimited, Connect and Fibre Unlimited customers Free access for BT Broadband customers Free access for Vodafone and EE customers with Wi-Fi inclusive tariffs C120 (tube) Pay-as-you-go Free access for Virgin Broadband and Virgin Mobile customers Free access for EE, O2 and Vodafone customers MNOs c1,700 Open access Core to 02 branding and advertising
Impact of network evolution on convergence Third party small cell provision In future MNOs might rely more on small cells and backhaul provided by third party fixed operators such as Arqiva, BT and Virgin Media Traditionally MNOs have relied on their own cellular networks to provide their services but in future, MNOs may increasingly be leasing small cells and capacity from third parties Arqiva are also offering wholesale WiFi service provision to local authorities and private operators such as shopping centres MNOs different means of providing mobile data Small cells leased from third parties are likely to be in particular locations: Indoors: Particular locations where traditional mobile coverage may not reach such as shopping centres, businesses, Underground stations Urban hotspots: Delivering capacity to localised hotspots of demand Rural: Providing low-cost coverage to locations where the number of individuals is relatively small without having to build and operate a more expensive macrocell WiFi offload: As more data is offloaded onto WiFi networks, MNOs are seeking to establish their own WiFi networks (O2) or establishing agreements with other WiFi providers (MNOs other than Three) Femtocell WiFi Micro/ pico 3G and LTE cellular Backhaul for these small cells could be provided by fibre networks where available (e.g. BT and Virgin Media), through greater use of microwave fixed link bands (>10GHz) or fixed network acquisition - e.g. Vodafone Spectrum sharing could allow new bands to provide additional capacity supplementing outdoor WiFi 6
7 Impact of network evolution Seamless connectivity through New Technologies As mobile data users increasingly use an increasing variety of networks, tools are being developed to allow them to make seamless connections Authentication & identification Connecting to Wi-Fi public hotspots can be cumbersome where it requires manual selection, and reauthentication of login credentials. PassPoint 2.0 makes this process seamless, and facilitates Wi-Fi roaming through SIM based authentication and with higher security Soft Sims already present in M2M applications and may in future also be available in handsets Wi-Fi Integration with cellular Access Network Discovery and Selection Function (ANDSF) has been developed to allow devices to find and establish and seamless connections to non-cellular networks such as Wi-Fi Software Defined Networking allows for network architecture to adapt and dynamically adjust capacity based on demand We will publish a research study on SDN early in 2014 Self Optimising Networks (SONs) Self Optimizing Networks is an automation technology designed to make the planning, configuration, management, and optimization of mobile networks simpler and faster. By using SON, devices automatically log onto the network access type most suited for a user s needs at that moment, e.g. choosing WiFi when speed is most important or cellular networks when coverage on the move is the priority SONs can allow operators to cut both OPEX and CAPEX because they automate the process of building out and integrating multiple small cell networks Increasingly consumers are likely to use HetNets to access mobile data and seamlessly connect between different types of network
Service convergence Self-optimising networks & Software Defined Networks In the longer-term soft SIMs could integrate with self-optimising networks (SON) enabling third parties to provide services without having to build networks A soft SIM that integrates with a SON could allow devices to manage consumers network connectivity thereby allowing seamless access to multiple network types Hence more of the network intelligence is carried out locally by the device rather than being enacted centrally A Software Defined Network allows a device or a SON operator to manage connections between different networks as per user needs But seamless connectivity in this way for handsets would be tricky to manage and operators have told us that it is some years off for use in consumer handsets Small Cells Wi-Fi Macro cell Operator Core Network Femto cells ISP Macro cell Macro cell Shared Spectrum
9 Service convergence Longer term evolution But the path for long term evolution of networks is less certain Possible timeline of technological development Progression of technical possibilities 2013 2014 2015 2016 Separate fixed and mobile networks WiFi offload Improved authentication and handover Selfoptimising networks Soft-SIMs in handsets? Happening now with Passpoint 2.0 Likely to increase e.g. Apple IoS 7 Technical and commercial possibilities but less certain Thus far, networks have evolved as far as offloading data onto WiFi but there could be increasing development of into different types of network and service that in turn have wider implications for the broader comms market
10 Possible regulatory issues Competition constraints Although there may be some constraints on deployment of WiFi hotspots these may not prove to be general or insuperable barriers There have been suggestions that exclusivity in the provision of small cells could constrain competition The argument is that as it becomes more important for mobile operators to have outdoor WiFi hotspots or small cell sites suitable locations for outdoor sites are limited with some local authorities are providing exclusive access to these sites For an outdoor WiFi site it would be necessary to have a suitable location but also power and backhaul links Lamp posts are likely to be one of the most suitable locations and it is possible that a local authority may grant exclusive access to suitable locations within a specific area Possible multiple locations for hotspots Whether or not a competition problem arises depends on whether there are suitable sites beyond those to which any single operator has exclusive access For example, in cities there are likely to be other outdoor sites that an alternative small cell provider could use, eg Post Offices But if there are limitations on where transmitters can be located then competition problems could arise The ability of an operator to restrict competition by tying up exclusive access would also depend on whether other competitive constraints such as indoor WiFi and cellular networks exist
Possible regulatory issues Changing spectrum demand Mobile operators are still likely to require more spectrum but spectrum demand is likely to evolve, with more demand in higher bands Mobile operators are still likely to require more spectrum (including in UHF) given the huge increases in mobile data demand forecast Small cells may be more likely to be deployed in bands that meet an optimum balance between the factors below It is possible that micro/pico cells are deployed in different bands to cellular networks, provided devices support the relevant bands For example, an MNO facing a capacity crunch in a particular location at 800MHz could deploy a microcell at 2.6GHz in order to handle demand By using the higher 2.6GHz band the MNO could confine the higher capacity to where it was most needed since the propagation characteristics would coverage would not extend FCC allocated a separate band for small cell networks in 3.5GHz Provided it is possible to find suitable sites, power and backhaul then it is likely that small cells are increasingly likely to be deployed Coverage Capacity Device support Cost Harmonisation Higher frequencies will travel smaller distances and have poorer indoor coverage Higher frequencies can carry more data A crucial factor will be whether devices, particularly tablets and phones, support the relevant frequency, e.g. 2.6GHz as well as 800MHz It is usually more expensive to make equipment for use in higher frequencies as more isolation and better electronics are needed Harmonisation tends to lower the cost of deployment and lead to greater device support as more equipment is manufactured internationally 11
12 Possible regulatory issues New approaches to spectrum sharing We are planning to invite stakeholder views on whether we need to adopt new approaches to spectrum sharing Indoor demand Outdoor demand Emerging uses Use of the 2.4 and 5 GHz LE Wi-Fi bands now forms an important part of the UK s wireless communications infrastructure. A licence exempt approached works well indoors, but there is a future risk of Wi-Fi congestion occurring. The proposed extension of the 5 GHz band will help mitigate the risk of this occurring over the next decade. For outdoor applications, such as mobile small cells, new more polite spectrum sharing approaches are likely to be needed to prevent a tragedy of the commons occurring. There is also demand for emerging machine-tomachine applications, some of which require a higher level of service quality than can be provided under a licence exempt approach. 5 GHz extension A decision on whether to extend the 5 GHz band will be taken at WRC 2015. An detailed assessment of the case for extension, including the potential coexistence issues for the band, is required. Dynamic spectrum access New technologies, including cognitive radio and geolocation can be used to enable devices to share spectrum more intelligently. This could be enabled in the first instance by extending the geo-location database approach developed for TV white spaces.
13 Possible regulatory issues Ofcom s ongoing work We are conducting further work in a number of other relevant areas Project Spectrum sharing We are currently considering whether we are likely to need new approaches to unlicensed WiFi spectrum and to sharing in licensed bands and are inviting stakeholder input Timescale Consultation August 2013 Closes Nov 2013 Mobile data programme SPG are doing a wider programme of work considering how mobile data demand will be met in future Spectrum strategy Strategy and SPG are considering how our spectrum policy should evolve Mobile data strategy Planned Consultation Winter 2013 We are due to consult in the autumn 2013 on how to adapt our strategic approach to spectrum management and on a set of proposed spectrum priorities Implementing white space devices White Space Devices continue to develop and spectrum policy may need to accommodate their needs Consultation and pilots planned for autumn 2013