Speech to the Arup Conference on High Speed Rail Theresa Villiers MP Shadow Secretary of State for Transport February 2009 A
Speech to Arup conference on West Mids and HSR/Rail Before setting out my thoughts on the future for high speed rail, I would like to say a little about Arup, our hosts today. In 2007, journalist and author Nicholas Faith published a book called the Right Line on the dramas that accompanied the long struggle to deliver High Speed One, the UK s first 68 mile stretch of high speed rail which connects the Channel Tunnel to St Pancras station. As Sir Peter Hall recounts in his forward to the book, the project was foundering after the rail establishment chose what Sir Peter describes as the worst possible answer on the route putting four options on the table which together had the impact of maximising local opposition. Everything looked set to go the way of so many of the UK s major infrastructure projects in the past with recrimination, failure, and delay. But the project was rescued by what Sir Peter describes as a tiny group of mavericks inside an extraordinary company that became successful by breaking all the known rules, fighting virtually the whole of the nation s political, bureaucratic and professional establishment with apparently negligible chance of success 1
That extraordinary company was Arup and the fact that they succeeded against all the odds in winning that impossible battle is a phenomenal achievement by Mark Bostock and his colleagues. In devising a new route through north Kent into St Pancras and in completely turning round the debate on how best to deliver the new line they deserve a huge amount of credit for turning the UK s first (and so far only) 68 miles of high speed track from an imminent disaster into the success it has now become. And of course an added bonus of the scheme they proposed was the renaissance of St Pancras station. Their achievement on both St Pancras and High Speed One will leave a lasting and valuable legacy for future generations. General issues on West Mids and HSR Turning to the substance of my speech it s self evident that the West Midlands is an appropriate place to reflect on the future for high speed rail in Britain situated as it is at the hub of so many of our nation s most important rail and road routes, not to mention its vitally important role for our car industry and its successful airport. Just as connecting London with the Midlands was a key goal for those who created the rail network in the nineteenth century and the motorway network in the twentieth century, so in the opening years of the third millennium, the debate has turned to high speed rail, and the prospect of 2
constructing a new line to Birmingham, dubbed by many as High Speed Two. It s clear that as a nation we lag far behind our European neighbours on high speed rail. Looking further afield, Japan s phenomenally successful Shinkansen bullet train project began nearly 50 years ago, but other countries in Asia, including Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam, are also forging ahead with highspeed rail. Enthusiasm for high-speed rail is even emerging in the US. Amtrak s eastern corridor linking Washington DC and Boston uses TGV technology and California is about to embark on a major high speed rail programme. And the most prestigious endorsement of them all has come from President Obama. High speed rail is set to play an important part in the new president s plans for the US economy and its transport infrastructure with billions of dollars set to be allocated to HSR projects. When campaigning in the run up to the Presidential election, Obama said: The time is now right for us to start thinking about high-speed rail as an alternative to air transportation connecting all these cities. 3
And think about what a great project that would be in terms of rebuilding America. Our proposals on HSR A passionate belief in high-speed rail s potential to transform our transport networks and has led my party to put high speed rail at the heart of our vision for the future of travel in this country. In September last year at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, we promised to start the process of building a high speed rail network for the UK. If elected to Government, we would give the go ahead for a high speed link connecting London with Birmingham and Manchester and across the Pennines to Leeds. We see this as a first step. In future years, our aspiration is that this line should reach as far as Newcastle and Scotland as well. And ultimately, we want a full national network connecting many of the UK s major cities. We have carried out a detailed desktop feasibility study assisted by data and analysis from a number of expert sources including Arup, Atkins, Eurostar, Greenguage 21 and other industry players. I d like to take this opportunity to thank them for their input. 4
Our modelling of projected revenue streams deploys very cautious assumptions on fare levels. We see no point in building a line which people cannot afford to use. We have taken an equally careful and considered approach in analysing the cost of the project. Our figures include the 66% provision for optimism bias recommended by the Treasury. Several months of research told us the project is viable so long as the public sector meets the cost of track and land. We would look to the private sector for a substantial contribution to cover the remainder of the costs. Our research indicates that would require a contribution from the taxpayer of 15.7 billion at today s prices, or 1.3b annually over the 12 year period the experts tell us construction would take, again at today s prices. Realistically, we believe the planning and preparation process will not be easy and will take at least 4 to five years so we would target construction to start in 2015 and complete by 2027. A long process, I know but there is of course the possibility, even likelihood, that the opening of the line would be phased. 5
Although no final decisions have been taken on this yet, there must be a good chance of the London to Birmingham leg would be in operation some years before the project is completed in its entirety. Before I tackle the good news the benefits HSR would bring for this area and the country as a whole there is an important point I should address. If we win the general election, there is every chance that we will inherit a toxic economic legacy from Labour and public finances in crisis. Let me make it plain that the difficult burden this would place on us will not deter us from delivering on the promises we have made on highspeed rail. We are confident that we can afford this project and still have money available for other important rail improvements. Moreover, under the timetable I have set out today, the major call on the taxpayer will not kick in until 2015. But there are other, even more important reasons why we should no longer put off the task of building a high speed network for the UK. Our railways are suffering from chronic levels of overcrowding. The most congested services are running at more than 170% of their capacity. 6
Improvements such better signalling, longer trains and longer platforms can all help and we have set out a programme on how to make it easier and more cost effective to deliver these kinds of improvements; but there will come a time when such measures such will no longer be enough to cope with the expected levels of passenger growth. True, the significant growth trend we have witnessed since privatisation is likely to be affected by the recession, but there is an industry consensus that the West Coast Main Line will be full to bursting within 10 to 15 years. This audience will be well aware of the pressure on the line already, even after long awaited completion of the upgrade programme. Indeed travelling on a packed train back from Birmingham after the Conservative Party conference last Autumn, just a few days after my high-speed rail announcement, illustrated the point very clearly for the conference representatives as many of them sat on the floor or stood all the way to London. The truth is that in the not too distant future, the capacity time bomb on the West Coast Main Line will become increasingly difficult to diffuse without a new line. When one factors in the point that high speed is only around 30% more expensive to build than conventional rail, if that, and the case for the plan we propose becomes even stronger. 7
And of course a major advantage of building a new line, rather than further measures to stretch the capacity if existing ones is that you don t face the same magnitude of hugely disruptive line closures a phenomenon all too well known in this part of the world, with endless headaches caused by the long years it took to deliver the upgrade of the West Coast Main Line. But even more importantly, we believe that, over time, the major benefits of high-speed rail will far outweigh the costs of its construction. And I d like to take you through some of those key benefits today. Rail overcrowding and benefits for passengers The first and obvious advantage our plans offer for the West Midlands is faster services for rail passengers, with journey times from Birmingham to London cut to around 45 minutes and Manchester reachable in little over half an hour. But the advantages go further than speed. They embrace reliability as well. Because high speed is purpose built, it can offer much better reliability and punctuality than is possible with older conventional lines. As a one time commuter on the London Brussels route before the opening of the High Speed One to St Pancras, I can personally attest to 8
the contrast between the continental leg and the last stretch back through Kent into Waterloo. Not just slow, but frequently dogged by delays and hold-ups. According to Eurostar, in the first year of HS1 s operation, the average delay caused by infrastructure problems was less than four seconds per train. And that even includes infrastructure problems generated by bad weather. And weekend disruptions for of maintenance and renewals barely exist on high speed lines. And the advantages for passengers don t stop with speed and reliability - building an HSR link to London will free up space on the existing network. Switching much of the express traffic on to a new high speed line will free up space for more commuter and stopping services benefiting passengers all the way to Manchester and Leeds. The May 2008 study by consultants, Steer Davies Gleave, considered at the potential benefits high-speed rail could bring to Birmingham and the surrounding area. One of their conclusions was that the capacity released by HS2 would allow for: 9
much more frequent local train services in the Coventry corridor a better service to and from Milton Keynes and a general restructuring of the local and regional timetable. Building a high speed rail alternative will also mean more space for freight on the current network, helping take trucks off our congested roads. The importance of rail freight in greening our transport system and tackling congestion should not be underestimated. According to the Freight Transport Association, one train can take 50 lorries off our congested roads. The FTA also believe that every tonne of freight carried by rail produces 80% less CO2 and 95% less Nitrogen Dioxide than the road haulage alternative. So a key benefit of our proposals is to provide a viable and attractive alternative to thousands of car and lorry journeys now clogging up some of the most important and most congested motorway corridors in the country. Economic benefits of high speed rail High-speed rail also has the potential to deliver significant economic benefits. 10
The Atkins study for the DfT concluded that the benefits of a full high speed network for the UK would reach 63 billion over 60 years. The Steer Davies Gleave research to which I referred earlier concluded that a link to London would deliver time and cost savings for Birmingham with present value of about 4b over a 60 year period and a boost to the city s GDP with a present value 5.2bn. Add in a new high-speed connection to Manchester and Leeds as well and the benefits are even more substantial. An interesting aspect of the study is the efforts it makes to put a value on so-called agglomeration benefits and wider economic benefits which go beyond the factors measured by conventional appraisal methods. It attempts to measure the tremendously valuable knock-on effects of HSR. As well as regeneration gains particularly around the stations for the new line a top class new transport link that effectively shrinks the distance between the nation s two largest cities will help integrate the economies of the midlands and the south east. This will help address one of the most enduring problems of our economy which has seen such significant imbalances between the south east and the rest of the country over so many years. 11
Faster and better links to London help the rest of the country tap into higher relative levels of prosperity in the south east. In assessing the potential economic benefits of HSR, Europe provides some enlightening examples, as Richard Brown explored in the Thomas Hawksley Memorial lecture last year to the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. France started out on its high-speed rail journey almost 30 years ago. There is evidence to indicate that economic growth has been much more evenly distributed in France than in the UK with less pressure on its capital city. Marseille, Lyon and many other French cities have all benefited significantly from the expanding TGV network. But nowhere is the beneficial impact clearer than in Lille. 20 years ago, the city was struggling. Its economy was in decline and unemployment hit 40% with the closure of a number of traditional heavy engineering and mining plants. But Lille fought hard to ensure that the TGV network served the city rather than taking the shortest route between Paris and Calais. The result was a major influx of business attracted by the city s new accessibility in relation to both Paris and Brussels. 12
Unemployment levels fell dramatically and are now only marginally above the French national average. West Midlands and Europe And of course Europe is very relevant to our discussions this evening for another reason. Clearly, much attention has been focused on the reduction in the journey time to London which HSR would deliver for the West Midlands. But what should not be overlooked is the competitive advantages delivered by reduction journey times to European destinations. These include Birmingham to Paris in around three hours and Birmingham to Brussels in not much more than two and a half hours. One of the most important benefits of the Conservative plans for high speed rail is that constructing High Speed Two to Birmingham significantly open up opportunities for increased investment and business links between the West Midlands and mainland Europe with obvious advantages for the region s crucially important manufacturing industries including car production. But there s another aspect of our plans which will further improve the connectivity between this region and the rest of the world a dramatically improved rail connection to Heathrow airport. 13
Included in the proposals I announced in Birmingham last September is backing for a scheme along the lines put forward by Arup, our hosts today, to construct a new rail hub at Heathrow. I have already referred to Arup s record on St Pancras and High Speed One. That record was one of the reasons why I and my team sat up and listened when Mark Bostock and Peter Gist came to talk to us about a new rail hub at Heathrow. Their proposal is to link the airport s terminals directly and seamlessly with the main rail network out to Reading and the west of England and South Wales. For the first time, millions of people from places like Bristol, Exeter, Cardiff, Swansea, Plymouth and Penzance will be able to take a train directly from their home town to Heathrow. The proposed electrification to Reading, Basingstoke and Oxford included in the Arup scheme would also yield significant advantages in terms of service frequency and reliability and reducing carbon emissions. But this is only half the story. The Arup proposal also contains an ambitious plan to provide a high speed rail connection to London and the Channel Tunnel. 14
Combine that with the Conservative proposal for a high speed line going north and the result is massively improved transport links between the West Midlands and the rest of the world with a new high speed rail link from Birmingham to Heathrow. So when I made my announcement on HSR to the Midlands and the north of England, I also promised we would back a scheme along the lines of the innovative Arup proposals I have outlined. Rail connections to Heathrow have always been inadequate. The improvement to public transport links to Heathrow will clearly yield dividends in terms of passenger convenience. Put simply, it will make getting to the airport a whole lot easier. The scheme would also help address other pressing problems besetting our country s most important airport. The debate on Heathrow has tended to focus on overcrowding at the airport in terms of the number of flights trying to fit within the existing capacity. However, there is another significant congestion problem with traffic on the roads around the airport, including vitally important stretches of the M4 and M25. The Arup scheme would significantly assist in raising the proportion of passengers using public transport to access the airport. 15
A shift from the car to the train for surface access to Heathrow is vital if we are to deliver the improvements to air quality which are vitally needed around the airport. Heathrow is already in breach of EU restrictions on Nitrogen Dioxide pollution which will become legally binding in less than 12 months. And let me emphasise that this is not just some dry point of European law. The health damage caused by nitrogen dioxide is clear and it includes the increased risk of serious illness and early death for those suffering from respiratory problems. But there is another important advantage of the new rail hub we want to see built at Heathrow. I firmly believe that our plans for a new high speed line to the Midlands and north, when combined with linking Heathrow directly with the European high speed rail network, will together provide a viable alternative to thousands of short haul flight movements. So high speed rail provides a lifeline for those who recognise the need to make Heathrow a much better airport, and address the Heathrow hassle phenomenon that causes so much inconvenience to holiday makers and business travellers alike, but who want to achieve this without paying an unacceptable price in terms of the quality of life and the environment. 16
We believe that the environmental and social costs associated with a third runway at Heathrow are too high a price to pay. If elected to Government we would cancel Labour s plans to build Runway Three. A wide range of groups have also called on the Government to think again on this issue including Tom Foulkes, CEO of the Institution of Civil Engineers, who are represented here today. I am sure their view will have a significant impact on the continuing battle over this hugely important issue. Experience in Europe clearly shows that high speed rail captures the lion s share of the market from aviation for journeys of 3 to 4 hours. For example, the twice hourly high speed trains between Paris and Brussels have meant Air France no longer fly between the two cities, scrapping every one of their flights. With its share in the Paris London market also being steadily eroded by rail competition, Air France is now actively considering entering the train business and running high-speed services in competition with Eurostar. The extension of high speed rail to the south of Spain had a major downward impact on domestic flights. According to figures published by the Government, there were around 63,200 flights between Heathrow and Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam, 17
Rotterdam, Manchester and Leeds in 2007 all destinations where it s realistic for high-speed rail to replace flying. Freeing up this many slots would provide space at Heathrow equivalent to around a third of the full capacity of a new third runway, and more than half of the 125,000 uplift the Government now say should be the maximum permitted use of Runway Three. And this is only the start. The potential for air to rail switch is clearly going to increase even further in the future. As I ve already said, I hope that in the future, the new high speed line we propose will be extended to Newcastle and Scotland. That could mean a rail journey from Edinburgh to London - city centre to city in little over two and a half hours, which would have a massive impact on the demand for domestic flights. The European high speed network is set to double in size by 2015. The last gaps in the high speed network between Brussels and Cologne are about to be plugged, opening up the prospect of easier rail travel to German destinations. And we should not under-estimate the importance of efforts being made by Railteam, a partnership of Europe s high-speed rail operators, to improve interconnections and through-ticketing with the goal of making long distance high speed travel easier and more attractive and ensuring 18
that high speed rail in Europe is genuinely a single network for the customer. Environmental advantages So in providing a realistic high speed rail alternative, we address the huge problems for local air quality, road congestion and aircraft noise that Labour s plans for a third runway and a 46% increase in flights would involve. Aircraft noise from Heathrow is already a major issue in areas as far apart as Reading and Windsor in the West and Greenwich and Vauxhall in the East. A new flightpath over some of the most densely populated areas in the country will make an already serious problem a great deal worse. And of course the environmental advantages of high speed rail go beyond tackling the problems around Heathrow. I strongly believe that rail and high speed rail should play a major role in helping us combat climate change and meet the demanding targets we have set ourselves for cutting carbon emissions There is no doubt that high speed rail is a much less carbon intensive way to travel than flying and rail is set to become even greener in the years to come. 19
Trains already in use by Eurostar emit around a tenth of the CO2 of aviation. The latest generation of high speed trains are greener still. True, part of Eurostar s environmental advantage flows from its use of lower carbon French electricity. Nevertheless, even if its trains were powered by a dirtier electricity generation mix, they still be a far greener than flying or driving. Furthermore, if we are to meet the pledge to cut CO2 emissions by 80%, it is imperative that we clean up and de-carbonise our electricity generation mix. So the differential between rail and air can only be expected to widen in the future. The Government s plans on HSR So the arguments for high-speed rail are compelling both on environmental and economic grounds. And the Government s apparent conversion to high speed rail is therefore to be welcomed. But it is worth looking beyond the hype before judging the Government on this issue. 20
For a start, they have been very slow to rise to the high-speed rail challenge. Their 30 year strategy for Britain s railways published barely a year and a half ago had no place for high speed rail. On the crucial corridor from the West Midlands, the White Paper contained the following wisdom: The balance of advantage would appear to favour services running at conventional speeds on reopened alignments between London and Birmingham. Delivering a Sustainable Railway, July 2007, p67 Even that they said was not affordable. As late as last Spring, the DfT admitted that not one civil servant was working on high-speed rail. Then came the sudden change of heart following the Conservative proposals on high-speed rail. But even now, I would argue that the Government s approach lacks ambition and lacks firm commitments. Unlike our proposals, there are no clear promises, no timeline, no costings, and so far, no attempt to get a new line past Birmingham. 21
All the Government have actually done is set up two overlapping working groups. What s more, the new rail hub the Government is considering for Heathrow looks likely to be located at Old Oak Common. A station over 9 miles away from the airport, at Wormwood Scrubs, simply won t yield the benefits of the innovative proposal Arup have put forward to connect Heathrow terminals directly with the main railway line and the European high speed, allowing people to go straight from their incoming plane and catch a train directly to distant destinations around the country and in Europe as well. I believe that we need a bigger vision for high-speed rail than Geoff Hoon has so far been able to deliver. Rest assured that I will continue to press them on this issue until we build a genuine cross-party consensus on driving forward with the challenge of delivering the nationwide network that could do so much to transform our transport system, not just in the West Midlands, but right across the nation. Conclusion In conclusion, the Conservative Party appreciates the importance of providing excellent transport links for the West Midlands for the sake both of its economic competitiveness and the quality of life of its residents. 22
We believe that we have a forward looking vision, both to improve our existing railways and the way they are run, and to deliver a top class new high speed link between the West Midlands and Europe. We believe that this will cementing Birmingham s place as a major European city and provide a major boost for jobs across the West Midlands. Thank you. 23