Linux, Open Source, and IBM: The Next Decade Bob Sutor VP, Open Source and Standards
Today's talk In order to set the context for the next ten years, we'll start by looking back over the last decade. From there we'll examine some lessons that IBM has learned through our involvement with free and open source software. Our discussion of the future will be based on some predictions for what will happen around technology, application areas, and intellectual property. 2008 2
2000 Wall Street Journal ad 3
Let's begin by reminiscing about the last decade... 4
The late 1990s were key open source years for IBM Sharing technology via IBM alphaworks led naturally to getting involved with open source. The Secure Mailer, now known as Postfix, was released as open source from IBM Research. We released the Jikes Java compiler to open source. 5
The late 1990s were key open source years for IBM Rather than continuing to develop our own implementations, we adopted the Apache http server for Websphere. The Apache Xerces XML parser helped accelerate the adoption of that standard leading to the start of web services and the SOA movement today. We started learning about open communities and FOSS intellectual property issues. 6
March, 2001 - http://www-03.ibm.com/servers/eserver/linux/passport.swf 7
March, 2001 - http://www-03.ibm.com/servers/eserver/linux/passport.swf 8
March, 2001 - http://www-03.ibm.com/servers/eserver/linux/passport.swf 9
What were some of the questions and risks? Could we put Linux on all our hardware? Could we put our middleware software on Linux? Would the Linux community grow and stay involved? Would other major corporations take part? Would the community stay together? Would the quality be high enough for the enterprise? Would Linux skills multiply throughout the IT world? Each answer is yes! 10
Who Has Contributed to Linux? (2005 2008) IBM and Linux IBM has been an active participant in Linux since 1999, is one of the leading commercial contributors to Linux, and has over 600 full-time developers working on Linux and open source. Expanding the Open Source Ecosystem Linux Kernel & Subsystem Development Kernel Base Architecture Support GNU Security Systems Management RAS Virtualization Special Projects Filesystems, and more... Foster and Protect the Ecosystem Software Freedom Law Center Free Software Foundation (FSF) Open Invention Network, and more... 11 Apache & Apache Projects Eclipse Mozilla Firefox OpenOffice.org PHP Samba, and more... Promoting Open Standards & Community Collaboration http://linuxfoundation.org/publications/who_writes_linux.pdf The Linux Foundation Linux Standards Base Common Criteria certification Open Software Initiative, and more...
Some of the lessons learned Different open source communities excelled at solving different kinds of problems. We constantly needed to understand and strive to be good citizens of the various communities associated with free and open source software. We're not just talking about sharing code, there are many facets to driving adoption of open source. 12
Some of the lessons learned Good corporate governance is essential to balance cross business unit strategies and risk. Both friends and foes of open source are formidable competitors, but this drives customer value and innovation. Open standards Community Innovation Open architecture Open source There is more to a strategy involving open than just open source. 13
But enough about yesterday, what about tomorrow? 14
Prediction 1: Green will drive significant initiatives in open source Linux will help reduce energy consumption through server consolidation, virtualization, load balancing and more efficient resources management. Customers will leverage the same Linux OS but choose the hardware platform with the optimal performance, consolidation and energy savings characteristics. Some of the most significant application innovations will be driven by solving problems in this area. 15
Prediction 2: Linux will not be replaced No new open source operating system will come out of left field and replace Linux. No existing open source operating system will take over Linux's pre-eminent position. Linux will continue to adapt, evolve, and absorb to solve the new problems we throw at it. 16
Prediction 3: Linux mindshare will be less x86 focused Linux already runs on many different processors in machines as small as watches and mobile devices, all the way up to mainframes. You will likely not know where Linux is being used unless a Linux Inside marketing campaign becomes successful. Software-As-A-Service (Saas) and Cloud Computing will continue to be significant applications of Linux, but perhaps not well known ones by the public. 17
Prediction 4: The idea of Linux on the desktop will be significantly different 2018: What's a desktop? We will focus on collaboration on clients enabled via open standards, cloud computing, enterprise appliances, Web 2.0, and rich client platforms. To the degree that Linux on the traditional desktop succeeds, it will need to approach the Apple Mac in usability and attract more graphic designers for design. 18 Client Access Rich Thin / Virtual Collaboration & Application services LOB Apps Symphony Notes Sametime Connections Quickr Platform Framework Portal Windows Mac Operating Systems
Prediction 5: SMB is too close to call Will small- and medium-sized businesses stay the way they are, move to more open platforms and desktops, or shift in a big way to cloud computing and SaaS? Their focus will continue to be on buying solutions and services rather than piecing together hardware, operating systems, and applications. There will be great opportunities for ISVs who support Linux on multiple hardware platforms for local applications, but who also integrate well with SaaS. 19
Prediction 6: It will be relatively quiet on the FOSS license front People will continue to introduce new open source licenses that almost everyone else will ignore. The same half dozen licenses that account for 90+% of FOSS usage today will continue to dominate. More software will be built with code coming with multiple FOSS licenses, with resulting legal complexity. 20
Prediction 7: Open standards will grab more attention A model similar to the Creative Commons will govern how open standards intellectual property license agreements or patent non-assertion promises are chosen, and there will be far fewer of them. The legal implications of standards IP grants on open source will be much better understood. Several now prominent standards development organizations will cease to exist due to poor quality processes and technology, non-transparent behavior, and antiquated IP policies. 21
Prediction 8: It will be a do or die decade for open source industry apps We'll continue to see more proprietary applications being made available on Linux, both server and desktop. Some industries like education and healthcare will continue to create open source applications that work specifically within their domains. Either we'll see significant progress being made in creating open source applications for the non-public sector, or proprietary apps will maintain their dominance in the very long term. 22
Future Linux Evolution 23
In closing... We continue to be in awe of how much has been accomplished by the free and open source community in the last decade. Truly open communities work, but the jury is still out on the long term viability of bought-and-controlled open source communities. We're extremely positive about the future prospects of Linux and open source, but we can't slack off and we can't forget about those who still might arise to try to slow or reverse the progress that has been made. 24