Open Source Software. The Foundation for Tomorrow s Infrastructure. Al Gillen. Program VP, System Software IDC April 2013

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1 Open Source Software The Foundation for Tomorrow s Infrastructure Al Gillen Program VP, System Software IDC April 2013

2 Agenda 1. Industry Trends 2. Understanding the Open Source Development Model 3. The Shrinking Time to Market 4. Can open source succeed? 5. Enterprise acceptance for open source solutions 6. Systems management, monitoring and performance solutions 7. Best practices 8. Conclusion 2

3 Market Overview and Dynamics Hardware standardization aligns customers for more interchangeability of hardware, inside and outside datacenter Software standardization both accelerating and following hardware. Server virtualization helps standardize, is on-ramp for private cloud, public cloud Open source solutions have established credibility and quality, and use has become common for customers Open source monitoring and management solutions just one of many waves of open source software adoption Application frameworks changing; open frameworks help divide legacy- and cloud-era apps 3

4 Market Overview: Standardization A First Step Toward Modernization and Cloud 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 WW Server (Hardware) Shipments (000) x86 RISC CISC + EPIC OSes on x86 best positioned for growth On x86, it is a Linux/Windows choice Linux includes subscriptions and nonpaid Standardization of infrastructure solutions Other open source solutions, including monitoring and management, are part of the standardization trend taking place. 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Customers gravitating to x86 Volumes of competing platforms not growing Majority of cloud built on low-cost x86 servers Existing mainframe, Unix installs under pressure, but some workloads will stay put, some forever Windows Unix Other Host/Server NetWare Mainframe Linux WW Server Operating Environment (Software) Shipments/Subscriptions/Deployments (000) Source: IDC Server Tracker, July 2012; IDC System Software Research, July

5 Understanding the Open Source Development Model Project Initiated Community Develops Commercializers Emerge Commercial Use Begins OEMs, ISVs Join Project Commercial Use Expands Professional Developers Join Community Commercializers Grow/Mature Projects are initiated either as a grass-roots initiative (Linux, Xen, MySQL, or are jump-started with a significant contribution (Nagios, Zenoss, OpenStack, Eclipse) Community support is not always guaranteed; code releases don t automatically guarantee support Communities must evolve and grow with new contributors over time, or face stagnation and possible abandonment Source: IDC,

6 Understanding The Open Source Development Lifecycle Project Owners/ Stewards Individual Community Members Users Open Source Project Corporate Developers Open Source Commercializers ISVs & OEMs Source: IDC,

7 Can Open Source Succeed: Myths and Realities of Open Source Software Myth OSS will enter every market OSS is inherently innovative OSS improves faster than commercial software OSS has less lock-in OSS is free, therefore cheaper I need to participate in the community to use OSS Reality There needs to be a need; a perception that proprietary solutions are inadequately serving the market, and a developer community willing to reinvent software solutions. In the past OSS rarely created a new markets; instead replicated existing solutions. That is increasingly NOT the case today with OSS. True; there are releases daily, weekly or monthly. The question becomes how much change can you quickly consume? True to a point; but there s always some lock-in. Lack of strong lock-in is challenging for commercial open source products. Not always. Try-before-you-buy is great, but total cost of ownership includes deployment costs, long-term management/user support, downtime costs, more. While it is better to be in touch with the community, it is not mandatory that users contribute code or function as testers. Source: IDC,

8 Open Source: It s almost Everywhere Operating systems Linux, BSD Data Structures MySQL, PostgreSQL, Hadoop Virtualization Software: KVM, Xen Infrastructure Samba, Apache Middleware, Frameworks: JBoss, Spring Python, PHP, Perl, Ruby Cloud System Software Eucalpytus, OpenSack, CloudStack Applications Source: IDC, 2013 Kuali 8

9 Everywhere Including Monitoring/ Management Hyperic Real time Web monitoring, event tracking, reporting Post-VMware acquisition still available as open source; vibrant community remains in place; commercial versions also available Zenoss Monitoring, automatic discovery Commercial support available from Zenoss Inc., and available under GPL 2 with >1 million downloads Nagios IT infrastructure monitoring, detect breeches Commercial support from Nagios Enterprises, Wuerth-Phoenix and others Groundwork Monitoring solution; integrates with Nagios and other tools Not fully open source, includes integrated OSS and non-oss technology in the GroundWork, Inc. products NetEye Multiple integrated open source packages Local European development, customization, deployment and commercial support Source: IDC,

10 2010 project emerges, code out 4 months laterr 1991 project emerges 2006 project emerges The Shrinking Time to Market 1992 Community forms 2007 Community forms 2011 Community forms 2008 Early code released 2012 commercial support providers 2009 Cloudera, MapR deliver commercial support 1994 Linux 1.0 released 1995 Commercial Support Providers emerge 2010 Ecosystem develops, IPOs start 1997 Ecosystem starts developing; IPOs start 2000 Linux enters mainstream 2003 Enterprise Linux emerges OpenStack Hadoop Linux Elapsed Years IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on Source: IDC,

11 2002 Zenoss technology started 1996 Concept invented The Shrinking Time to Market 1999 released as open source 2001 Nagios used internally by Wuerth Group 2006 Zenoss Inc. started; open sourced 2007 Core 2.0 released 2006 Wuerth- Phoenix OSS w/com support 2010 Core 3.0 released NetEye Epands w / additional OSS features 2012 Core 4.0 released 2007 Com support avail from Nagios NNTOP, NAGVIS, OTRS, more Zenoss Zenoss Nagios Nagios NetEye OpenStack Hadoop Linux Elapsed Years IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on Source: IDC,

12 Worldwide Revenue ($M USD) Can Open Source Succeed? Worldwide revenues for hardware, packaged software and services aboard Linux ($M USD) $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Application Software App Development & Deployment Software System Infrastructure Software (excl. OS) Linux Operating System Linux Server Hardware* *Note: Linux server hardware excludes OS revenue What s missing from this picture? Open source software used on Unix & Windows (Such as JBoss on Windows, MySQL on Solaris, etc.) PC hardware-related hardware revenue CAGRs: Software: 22% Hardware: 1% Source: IDC Software Tracker, Server Tracker, July

13 Millions (USD) Performance and Event Management Worldwide Software Revenue (Millions of USD) 8,000 7,000 6,000 Other 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Linux/other open source Windows 32 and 64 Unix Mainframe Source: IDC Software Tracker, November

14 Can Open Source Management and Monitoring Software Succeed? Myths and Realities of Open Source Software Myth Reality OSS will enter every market OSS is inherently innovative OSS improves faster than commercial software OSS has less lock-in OSS is free, therefore cheaper I need to participate in the community to use OSS Systems monitoring and management has emerged as one of the target markets for open source software. Numerous projects are in place, and cloud will help accelerate investment here. Early open source software products specialized in emulating functionality of competing products. Virtually all modern open source software projects today are highly innovative. True; same concerns as other open source project areas. How much change can customers quickly consume? True there s always some lock-in. But open source solutions offer vendor alternatives (community versions) of available commercial products. Not always. On-staff skills, willingness to invest in IT, and other IT strategic initiatives all play into a free vs. commercial choice. While it is better to be in touch with the community, it is not mandatory that users contribute code or function as testers. However, contributions help grow the industry. Source: IDC,

15 Open Source Gaining Credibility with Enterprise IT Using a 5 point scale where 5 is frequently and 1 is hardly at all, please indicate how often your organization will use the following methods to access new systems management software by Free opensource software 3.02 Paid SaaS delivered software 3.25 Included as part of a public cloud SaaS, PaaS or IaaS service Embedded with converged systems or other hardware solution Included as part of a dedicated hosted or outsourced service Paid on prem software (traditional license or subscription) Source: IDC IT Management Quickpoll January 2013 n=201 IDC Visit us at IDC.com and 15 follow us on

16 Automation Software Open Source with Available Commercial Support Puppet Labs recently received $30 million investment from VMware with commitment to continue to support open source community Opscode continues open source support for Chef community Red Hat s recent acquisition of ManageIQ promises open source availability. RH philosophy is open first. Many vendors offer freemium options & trials with ongoing free open source/community downloads Broad support for Puppet and Chef across many infrastructure and application vendors IDC Visit us at IDC.com and 16 follow us on

17 Monitoring Solutions Open Source extending across dev/ops spectrum Popular open source monitoring solutions include Zenoss, Nagios (NetEye), Groundwork and many others VMware continues to support Hyperic application monitoring open source community as part of vfabric App Performance Manager AppDynamics and New Relic gain significant new funding with fast growing freemium APM options without formal open source participation and are proving popular with organizations that want more sophistication at lower cost IDC Visit us at IDC.com and 17 follow us on

18 App Performance Mgmt and Dev/Ops A Growth Opportunity Application Performance Management represents major growth opportunity Look across complex operational environments, Discover hardware and software dependencies & topologies Track transactions, packets, code traces on end-to-end basis Provide business app impact assessments and context Gauge end-user experiences of Web, cloud, and mobile applications Predictive analytics and advanced visualization APM becomes more important as private cloud and hybrid cloud becomes a reality IDC Visit us at IDC.com and 18 follow us on

19 Best Practices Open Source solutions are mature, reliable and effective solutions, but they are not free Using free software incurs opex costs that may be less visible than capex costs for commercially supported products. What looks free could potentially be more expensive Contributing to community is optional or is it? Staff skills and organizational philosophy matter. Adopting ITIL is a best practice. 19

20 Open Source Use Decision Tree Yes Use open source based product? No Yes IT service provider? No Use proprietary product Yes Strong developer skills on staff? No Yes Is IT considered a strategic differentiator? No Do you use other open source or inhouse written apps? Is there justification on investing in skills to support open source products? Yes No Yes No Yes Have strong developer skills on staff? No Use commercially supported product; focus on strategic differentiators Strong candidate to use open source with community support Should carefully compare open source and commercially supported OSS Strong candidate to use open source with community support Should carefully compare open source and commercially supported OSS Possible candidate to use open source with community support Use commercially supported product; focus on strategic differentiators Source: IDC,

21 Conclusions Open source software is real, credible, performs, and safe Customers are moving beyond the OS layer with open source software Middleware, database, application frameworks and even applications are now built on or using open source solutions Systems management natural extension for open source Cloud computing will increase emphasis on and importance of open source in systems management However, FOSS is a tool and should be part of a strategy Strategy must include: A roadmap to standardization Consideration for the future role of IaaS and PaaS, and hybrid cloud Where free open source fits and where it does not is it cost justified? Consider the value of support subscriptions Commercial support of open source software offers value-add 21

22 For more information on IDC s research, please visit al.gillen algillen Al Gillen, Program VP (landline) (m) 22

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