Motorcycles and road safety Lessons from overseas? Dr Alan Ross Road Safety Management Adviser alanross999@gmail.com
Millions of vehicles In 1950 There Were About 60 Million Motor Vehicles World-wide. By 1993 - - in Less than 45 Years - - the Number Had Grown Nearly Twelve Fold to About 700 Million ( by 2007 there were over 1 billion vehicles) 800 600 Motorcycles Buses and Trucks Automobiles 800 600 400 Global vehicle fleet 400 200 200 0 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 0
The plague in Asia 1980 Motorcycles becoming a recognized safety problem Alan Ross, Apr 12
The plague is spreading! 2000 Not just Asia any more 1 Iran in 2000, 1 million M/C but by 2005, 5 million M/C 2 Poor public transport in African cities move to m/c taxis e.g. Lagos 1000 in 1980, 10,000 in 1995 and 200,000 by 2007 and now 1 million 30-40% of traffic flow peak hrs 3 Kenya M/cyclist injuries now increasing +29%/year Motorcycles becoming a global problem Alan Ross, Apr 12
The plague is spreading! 2010 Mexico 99-09 + 332% m/c death rate Brazil 96-07 + 800% m/c deaths Motorcycles are now a growing global problem Alan Ross, Apr 12
What has been done and what can we do? Haddon Matrix Contributory Factors Sub set Prevent crash Road Users Riders Licensing /regulation Training Enforcement Other road users Increased awareness of m/cycles Enforcement Vehicles Motorcycle Improvements to braking Improved maintenance Conspicuity Choosing safer m/cycles Improved field of view M/cycle industry Reduce injury Severity Helmets Protective clothing Knee protection Fairings Airbags M/cycle industry Improve Treatment Safer removal of helmets Automatic collision Notification M/cycle industry Environment Other vehicle Improved field of view M/cycle friendly designs Better road surfaces Intersection improvements Road space allocation Better delineation Black spot treatments Improved roadside safety ( including barriers) Ref: Compendium of best practices for motorcycle safety, APEC, 2011
Case study 1 Motorcycle helmets wearing Vietnam ( 90% m/cycles ) 90% of traffic is motorcycles In 1990 very few wore safety helmets but since 2007, 90% wearing. How was this accomplished? A number of phases needed Market research showed western helmets seen as hot / rice cookers New tropical design developed more suited to Asian conditions and heads Child helmets developed by a not for profit organisation raised profile Government worked with industry and supported efforts to increase wearing Mandatory wearing from 1995 but low fines,no enforcement so no wearing 2000-2005 modest fines gradually increased and enforcement 2007 TV campaign + new law + Significant increase in fines /enforcement Wearing increased to 90% LESSONS? 1 Change takes time, not just legislation. Without standards, availability of helmets,government support, serious fines and enforcement - little effect 2 Govt needs to work with Civil society and private sector for maximum impact
Case study 2 Exclusive Motorcycle Lanes Malaysia ( 45% m/cycles ) Small motorcycles ( under 150 cc ) tend to be most used in Malaysia They require around 0.80 m width and rider needs at least 1.3 m width of lane for comfortable riding Since 1980s Malaysia has invested in exclusive motor cycle lanes A 14 km m/cycle lane on Federal Highway 2 was estimated to have resulted in a 25 % reduction in m/cycle crashes (34% if other issues taken out ). A later study showed that 39% reduction in crashes had had been achieved Very few other countries have invested in exclusive motorcycle lanes but Malaysia seems to have found them cost effective ( maybe because small m/cycles and volumes sufficient? (cf Australia only 1% of traffic stream ) LESSONS 1 Exclusive motorcycle lanes work best when traffic volume greater than 15,000 vehicles per day and motorcycle only 20-30 % of traffic volume 2 Motor cycle lanes need to be at least 1.7 m wide to allow comfortable overtaking of motorcycles by other motorcycles using the lane
Case study 3 Engineering improvements- Victoria, Australia ( under 3% m/cycles) M/cycle Hazardous locations programme 2003-2012, 130 locations identified Blackspots, Black lengths, route action plans and intersections Criteria based on 3 loss of control motorcycle injury crashes within a 5 year period for intersections and blackspots and that plus crashes per km ( 0.5 for rural roads and 2 for other road sections ) For route action plans motorcycle crashes had to be greater than 11% of all crashes along that route Achieved 24% reduction in motorcycle crashes at the 67 sites treated saving around 24 casualties per year. Achieved Benefit cost ratio of 15: 1 Funded by a motor cycle safety levy added to third party insurance premium ($55 per motor cycle initially but in 2008 changed to a one off levy on motorcycle owner ( irrespective of how many motorbikes owned) This levy raised $35 millions and around 66% of it was spent on hazardous locations programme LESSONS 1 It is possible to develop cost effective hazardous locations improvement programmes aimed at motorcycle crashes 2 Significant funding can be raised for such programmes by imposing a small levy on potential beneficiaries through insurance
CASE STUDY 4 Moto taxi regulation ( Bangkok, Thailand ) Thailand first to deal with moto taxis so longest experience on this 1970s Public Transport was poor in Bangkok so 3 types of Para transit - shared pickup, small shared car and moto taxis as feeders for the narrow lanes off major roads Started by communities to help neighbours sharing gasoline costs etc. later set up as service by communities Police said NOT illegal under vehicle law so quick expansion In 1979 govt recognition by creating private and public licenses for area motorcycles Moto taxi companies ( owned by police/govt official /soldier + local big man in area) drivers paid to get jacket plus paid daily fee to owner and police to operate ) 1998-2000 much debate about safety- law drafted but not passed, system continued Veh law 2004 enforced from 2005 regulation safety issues, drivers, special jackets, helmets and safety handles for passengers, fares setting, Ann tax + driver licence Fares able to be raised, Drivers working hrs. reduced, less passengers since diversion to other modes, drivers better off-no payments needed to owners and police to operate Lessons 1 Regulation brings stability and control to system and imposes safer operation 2 Gasoline prices critical for viability -make or break factor 3 Very narrow window for viable operation. If price increase lose customers but if gasoline price increases income is squeezed.
160,0 140,0 Where do we go from here? Projected Global Annual motor cycle sales (millions ) 2010 M/cycle industry worth $63.5 Billion by 2016 will be worth $96.17 billion 2000-18.6M 2005-26.7M 2010-40.7M 2015-75.0M 2020-138.0M 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 global motor cycle sales (millions ) 13.0% 13.0%? 40,0 20,0 7.4% 8.8% 0,0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year Alan Ross,Sept 13
Tackling the Motorcycle Industry? What can we do? Motor cycle industry makes $billions/year in profits but takes very little responsibility to address safety issues We would not permit cars to be sold without seatbelts so why do we allow motor cycles to be sold without helmets? Why do we let the industry get away with taking huge profits each year but leaving public sector to carry the costs? Sub groups of countries should insist that for every motorcycle sold local motorcycle manufacturers association should be required to 1 Give $2 contribution to a global road safety fund ( to fund international and local initiatives in that country ) 2 Give at least 2 good quality helmets free with every m/cycle sold 3 Give voucher for 4 hour m/cycle training at any driving school (1 hour of safety films about helmets and conspicuity and 3 hours of practical instruction on safe riding skills ) New m/cycle sales /year 2000-18.6 Million, 2005-26.7 Million, 2010-40.7Million, 2015-75 Million, 2020-138 Million Alan Ross, Sep 2013
Dr Alan Ross* Road Safety Management Adviser BSc Civil Engineering M Eng. Transportation and Traffic Engineering MSc Management studies ( Traffic Police Enforcement ) Ph D Road safety Action Plans and Programmes Has 35 years of experience of advising on road safety issues in around 50 developed and developing countries around the world Author of several major international guidelines on safety engineering, Safety Audit, Road safety Guidelines, Road Safety Action Plans, Project design and Monitoring issues Helped World bank to create and was first Technical Director of Global Road Safety Partnership (GRSP) now based under International Red Cross and Red Crescent HQ (in Geneva ) Frequent specialist adviser on Multilateral development Banks (MDBs ), UN Commissions, and bilateral aid projects at National and regional level. Road safety adviser assisting ADB to develop its internal road safety action plan to mainstream road safety and currently road safety adviser to EIB assisting it to develop its internal road safety action plan to strengthen road safety into all its projects and lending activities Road safety Adviser on several regional and sub regional multi country projects (e.g. 10 countries in South East Asia,10 countries in central Asia etc. ) Ccontacts alanross999@gmail.com or +44 191 265 0060 or mobile +44 7801 428 082 Alan Ross, Jan 13