CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For Release: Thursday, April 3 rd, 2008 6:30 PM (EDT) AMERICANS VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY AND THE STATE OF THE COUNTRY March 28- April 2, 2008 Americans views about the economy and the way things are going in this country in general -- are now the most negative ever recorded in the history of the CBS News/New York Times Poll. Just 14% say things in this country are on the right track; the lowest number in the twenty-five years since CBS News began asking the question. DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY Now 1/2008 12/2007 Right direction 14% 19% 21% Wrong track 81 75 71 When asked to compare things in the U.S. now to five years ago, 78% say things are worse today (the highest since CBS news began asking the question in 1986) and only 4% say things are better. Nearly four in 10 think things will be better in the next five years, while a third expect things to get worse. THE UNITED STATES TODAY VS. FIVE YEARS AGO FIVE YEARS FROM NOW Better 4% 39% Worse 78 34 About the same 17 19 THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY Just one in five believe the economy is in good shape - the lowest number recorded since October 1992. In addition, seven in 10 say the economy is getting worse. CONDITION OF THE ECONOMY Now 2 weeks ago 1/2008 3/2007 10/1992 Good 21% 25% 38% 55% 19% Bad 78 76 61 44 79 There are many causes for these concerns. In this poll, Americans express their worries about the impact of a bad economy on their ability to meet future college tuitions, pay their mortgages and even (for some) paying their regular bills. And while the Chairman of the Federal Reserve recently indicated that the U.S. economy may enter a recession during the first half of this
year, two-thirds of Americans think the country is already in one. Two-thirds thought so last month, and 53% did in January. IS THE U.S. IN A RECESSION? Now 2 weeks ago 1/2008 Yes 66% 66% 53% No 27 28 41 So it is not surprising that the economy and jobs continues to be the top concern for Americans. The war in Iraq is second, followed by two other issues where people worry about cost: gas prices and health care. MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Economy and jobs 37% War in Iraq 15 Gas prices 7 Health care 6 As for which economic problem facing the country is most important, gas prices top the list. 21% volunteer gas and oil prices, 14% cite housing and the home mortgage crisis and 11% say jobs (Another 4% say jobs moving overseas and outsourcing). Personal finances and war and defense spending are each volunteered by 5%. MOST IMPORTANT ECONOMIC PROBLEM Gas/oil prices 21% Housing/home mortgages 14 Jobs/unemployment 11 Personal finances 5 War/defense spending 5 When it comes to jobs, nearly half of Americans say the country s best years are in the past. 43% say the best times for jobs are yet to come. THE HOME MORTGAGE CRISIS Most Americans are aware of the current home mortgage crisis and more than half think the federal government should provide financial help to homeowners who are having trouble repaying their mortgages. Significantly fewer, however, support this idea if it would cost taxpayers $30 billion. The public has less sympathy for banks and mortgage companies: A majority (62%) does not think the government should provide help to those institutions. IN THE MORTGAGE CRISIS, SHOULD GOV T PROVIDE FINANCIAL HELP TO? HOMEOWNERS BANKS & MORTGAGE COMPANIES Yes 53% 28% No 41 62
Americans mostly blame regulators of the industry for the home mortgage crisis, followed by lenders. Only 14% put the blame on the borrowers themselves. WHO DO YOU BLAME MOST FOR MORTGAGE CRISIS? Regulators 40% Lenders 28 Borrowers 14 It s not just other people that the public thinks about when it comes to the mortgage crisis. Many worry about themselves. Nearly three in four of those holding a mortgage have some concern about being able to pay their housing costs. A third are very concerned. CONCERNED ABOUT HOUSE COSTS? (Those holding a mortgage) Very 31% Somewhat 41 Not at all 28 AMERICANS AND THEIR PERSONAL FINANCES Despite many worries about their mortgage responsibility and their negative assessment of the national economy, Americans are relatively satisfied with their own financial situation. Seven in 10 Americans rate their financial situation as at least somewhat good though this number is down six points from February. But only 9% of Americans say their financial situation is very good down nine points in the last few weeks. FINANCIAL CONDITION OF YOUR HOUSEHOLD Now 2/2008 4/2007 Good 72% 78% 83% Bad 27 21 17 Nearly half of all Americans say they are staying even financially, while 23% say they are getting ahead, and another 28% say they are falling behind. Most Americans say that wages are not keeping up with the cost of living in their communities. This is especially true of Americans who live in the Midwest. ARE WAGES KEEPING UP WITH THE COST OF LIVING IN YOUR COMMUNITY? Total Northeast Midwest South West Yes 32% 38% 24% 31% 34% No 62 56 71 64 57 And 79% - say they have had to make cutbacks in their day-to-day spending in recent years, although only 28% admit those cutbacks have
been severe. One in five Americans have not had to make any cutbacks in their spending. A third of Americans making over $75,000 a year have not had to make cutbacks, compared to only 15% of those making less. HAVE YOU MADE CUTBACKS IN DAY-TO-DAY SPENDING? All Under $75K Over $75K Severe cutbacks 28% 37% 10% Not severe cutbacks 51 47 57 No cutbacks 21 15 33 Paying everyday bills is the biggest personal economic concern for most Americans, ahead of both saving for retirement and paying for health care. This changes, however, depending on one s household income. Americans making less than $75,000 a year are more concerned about their current situation and paying their bills, but those making more are more concerned about the future and saving for retirement. BIGGEST ECONOMIC CONCERN All Under $75K Over $75K Everyday bills 29% 36% 15% Retirement 25 20 40 Health care 24 25 18 Although it may come in third when ranked against paying for everyday bills and saving for retirement, 86% still say they are at least somewhat concerned about the health care costs their family might face in the coming years including 59% who say they are very concerned. Large majorities are also concerned about saving for retirement and paying their current health care and housing costs. Just over half are also at least somewhat concerned that someone in their household will lose their job in the next twelve months. HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT? Very Somewhat Not at all Future health care costs 59% 27 14 Saving for retirement 43% 39 17 Current health care costs 42% 29 28 Housing costs 31% 38 30 Losing a job in the household 28% 26 45 However, it is paying for college tuition that seems to preoccupy most Americans with children under the age of 18. Nine out of 10 parents are concerned about paying for college; including seven in 10 who say they are very concerned. More worry about that than worry about any other specific economic concern.
HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT? (Among parents with children under 18) Very Somewhat Not at all Paying for college tuition 70% 24 6 Future health care costs 62% 24 13 Saving for retirement 56% 38 7 Current health care costs 47% 26 27 Losing a job in the household 35% 29 35 Housing costs 33% 43 24 Looking beyond those future college expenditures, parents are cautiously optimistic about their children s financial future. Nearly half of all Americans with children think their children s standard of living will be better than theirs the same who thought so as a year ago. But 28% think their standard of living will decline, and 24% think it will be about the same as their own. YOUR CHILDREN'S STANDARD OF LIVING WILL BE (Among all parents) Now 7/2006 3/2005(NYT) Better than yours 46% 48% 56% Worse than yours 28 27 22 Same as yours 24 23 18 And regardless of their personal financial struggles, 62% of Americans think their own standard of living is better than that of their parents when they were the same age a number which hasn t changed much over the past two years. THE STOCK MARKET STANDARD OF LIVING NOW VS. PARENTS Now 7/2006 3/2005(NYT) Better now 62% 63% 66% Worse now 17 16 14 Same 19 21 20 The recent fluctuations in the stock market haven t made Americans any more comfortable with the market. Only one in five Americans think that investment in the stock market is a generally safe investment. 73% think it is risky, including 65% of investors. IS INVESTING IN THE STOCK MARKET GENERALLY All Investors Safe 22% 33% Risky 73 65 THE WAR IN IRAQ AND THE ECONOMY The war in Iraq ranks second behind the economy as the country s most pressing problem and most Americans think the cost of the war has
contributed to the country s economic woes, including two-thirds who think it has contributed a lot. HOW MUCH HAS THE IRAQ WAR CONTRIBUTED TO U.S. ECONOMIC PROBLEMS? A lot 67% Some 22 Not much/not at all 10 Americans who think going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do are less likely to think the war is responsible for the country s economic problems. THE PRESIDENT The public s downbeat views of the economy are taking a toll on evaluations of George W. Bush s handling of the issue. Only 21% of Americans now approve of his handling of the economy his lowest rating to date. 71% disapprove of how he s handling it, an all-time high. In 1992, George H.W. Bush, the president s father, suffered even lower economic approval ratings. BUSH S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY Now 2 weeks ago 2/2008 1/2008 Approve 21% 25% 27% 27% Disapprove 71 68 63 62 Also, the President continues to experience low overall job ratings. Just 28% approve of the job he is doing a President similar to his rating two weeks ago. BUSH S OVERALL JOB RATING Now 2 weeks ago 2/2008 1/2008 Approve 28% 29% 30% 27% Disapprove 64 64 64 65 This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1368 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone March 28- April 2, 2008. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.
CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Americans Views of the Economy March 28 April 2, 2008 q1 I'd like you to compare the way things are going in the United States to the way they were going five years ago. Generally, would you say things are going better today, worse today, or about the same today as they were going five years ago? Total Rep Dem Ind Sep06a % % % % % Better 4 6 1 5 18 Worse 78 68 87 74 60 Same 17 25 11 19 19 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 3 q2 And what is your best guess about the United States five years from now? Generally, if things go pretty much as you now expect, do you think things will be better, worse, or about the same as they are today? Better 39 42 40 36 31 Worse 34 30 32 38 37 Same 19 20 16 20 27 DK/NA 8 8 12 6 5 q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Mar08a Approve 28 60 7 28 29 Disapprove 64 29 90 60 64 DK/NA 8 11 3 12 7 q4 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Jan08c Right direction 14 32 5 11 19 Wrong track 81 61 93 82 75 DK/NA 5 7 2 7 6 q5 What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today? Feb08a Economy / jobs 37 39 39 32 33 War in Iraq 15 6 24 13 20 Gas/Heating Oil Crisis 7 6 6 9 3 Health Care 6 5 8 3 7 Immigration 3 7 1 2 4 Environment 2 1 1 4 1 Foreign Policy 2 1 2 3 1 The President/G.W. Bush 2 1 2 2 2 Budget Deficit /Nat l Debt 2 3 1 2 3 Housing 2 3 2 0 -- Terrorism (general) 2 5 0 1 5 Other 18 21 13 25 15 DK/NA 2 2 1 4 6
q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy? Total Rep Dem Ind Mar08c % % % % % Approve 21 43 4 23 25 Disapprove 71 48 92 65 68 DK/NA 8 9 4 12 7 q7 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Is it very Mar08a Very good 1 1 0 2 1 Fairly good 20 33 9 23 24 Fairly bad 48 49 50 44 42 Very bad 30 15 39 30 34 DK/NA 1 2 2 1 0 q8 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better 4 9 2 3 2 Worse 70 55 78 71 75 Same 25 35 19 25 21 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 q9 Right now, do you think the United States is in an economic recession, or not? Yes 66 54 75 64 66 No 27 38 17 29 28 DK/NA 7 8 8 7 6 q10 What do you think is the most important ECONOMIC problem facing the country today? Gas/fuel costs / heating oil 21 23 22 18 Home/housing mortgage crisis 14 18 16 9 Jobs and Unemployment 11 8 13 11 Personal finances 5 4 3 7 Defense spending /spending 5 4 6 4 Jobs going overseas 4 3 4 4 Budget / National Debt 3 3 3 4 Health care / health ins. 3 4 3 2 Value of the dollar 3 3 4 2 Taxes / IRS / cut taxes 2 3 0 3 Foreign Trade / NAFTA 2 2 2 2 Too much government/govt. 2 3 2 3 Income gap/ 1 0 1 2 Inflation 1 1 1 2 Education / school loans 1 1 0 1 Poverty / Homelessness 1 1 2 0 Welfare / AFDC / 1 3 0 0 Interest rates 1 1 0 1 Immigration 1 1 1 1 Food prices 1 0 2 0 Other 5 4 6 8 Don't know/no answer 12 10 9 16
q11 When it comes to the availability of good jobs for American workers, some say that America's best years are behind us. Others say the best times are yet to come. What do you think? NYT Total Rep Dem Ind Dec96b % % % % % Best behind 48 41 49 53 44 Yet to come 43 52 40 39 46 Don't know/no answer 9 7 11 8 10 q12 What is your biggest personal economic concern right now? paying everyday bills, OR paying for healthcare OR saving for retirement OR something else? IF ELSE, ASK: What is that? Everyday bills 29 21 29 35 Retirement 25 36 25 18 Healthcare 24 17 30 21 College tuition (vol.) 4 7 4 3 Paying for gas (vol.) 2 4 1 3 Other, specify (vol.) 7 4 5 7 All of the above (vol.) 3 2 3 5 No concern/nothing 3 6 1 3 DK/NA 3 3 2 5 q13 How would you rate the financial situation in your household these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Feb08a Very good 9 17 6 8 18 Fairly good 63 66 64 58 60 Fairly bad 20 12 21 26 15 Very bad 7 4 8 8 6 Don't know/no answer 1 1 1 0 1 q14 In the past couple of years would you say you have been getting ahead financially, just staying even financially, or falling behind financially? Apr07a Getting ahead 23 39 17 17 21 Staying even 48 44 53 46 50 Falling behind 28 17 30 35 27 Don't know/no answer 1 0 0 2 2 q15 In general, how concerned are you about not having enough money to pay for your current health care costs--very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Feb07b Very concerned 42 32 49 41 26 Somewhat concerned 29 27 31 29 38 Not at all concerned 28 41 19 30 35 Don't know/no answer 1 0 1 0 1
q16 How concerned are you about the health care costs you and your family might face in the coming years--very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Total Rep Dem Ind Feb07b % % % % % Very 59 43 69 59 52 Somewhat 27 34 24 24 37 Not at all 14 22 7 16 10 Don't know/no answer 0 1 0 1 1 q17 How concerned are you about being able to pay your housing costs --very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Very concerned 31 19 38 32 Somewhat concerned 38 36 40 37 Not at all concerned 30 44 22 30 DK/NA 1 1 0 1 q18 How concerned are you about being able to afford your children's college tuition -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? ** PARENTS WITH CHILDREN UNDER AGE 18 ** Very concerned 70 57 77 74 Somewhat concerned 24 29 20 23 Not at all concerned 6 14 3 3 q19 How concerned are you about not having enough money for retirement --very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Feb07b Very concerned 43 34 49 42 38 Somewhat concerned 39 42 36 40 37 Not at all concerned 17 23 14 17 24 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 q20 How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work or looking for a job -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Feb08a Very concerned 28 15 34 30 29 Somewhat concerned 26 23 27 27 27 Not at all concerned 45 62 37 42 43 DK/NA 1 0 2 1 1
q21 In recent years, have you made cutbacks in your day-to-day spending? IF YES, ASK: Would you call those cutbacks severe, or not so severe? Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Yes, severe 28 18 31 32 Yes, but not severe 51 50 53 49 No 21 32 16 18 DK/NA 0 0 0 1 q22 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE q23 If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services? Nov03a % Smaller 43 70 24 45 45 Bigger 43 22 62 37 42 Depends(vol.) 4 1 5 5 4 DK/NA 10 7 9 13 9 q24-67 RELEASED SEPARATELY q68 Do you think the future of the next generation of Americans will be better, worse, or about the same as life today? Jun07c Will be better 33 29 39 28 25 Worse 34 34 33 35 48 About the same as life today 29 34 24 32 24 Don't know/no answer 4 3 4 5 3 q69 Compared to your parents when they were the age you are now, do you think your own standard of living now is much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse than theirs was? Jul06a Much better 32 35 32 31 33 Somewhat better 30 27 34 29 30 About the same 19 23 19 17 21 Somewhat worse 12 10 10 15 12 Much worse 5 4 4 6 4 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 --
q70 When your children are the age you are now, do you think their standard of living will be much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse than yours is now? ** AMONG PARENTS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Jul06a % % % % % Much better 19 15 22 20 18 Somewhat better 27 30 29 22 30 About the same 24 29 21 22 23 Somewhat worse 19 15 19 22 21 Much worse 9 8 8 10 6 DK/NA 2 3 1 4 2 q71 From what you know, how much do you think the cost of the war in Iraq has contributed to the U.S. economic problems -- a lot, some, not much or not at all? A lot 67 40 85 66 Some 22 40 11 21 Not much 6 11 2 8 Not at all 4 8 2 2 Don't know/no answer 1 1 0 3 q72 Currently the federal government taxes the estates -- that is, the property and money -- people leave when they die. In a few years, that tax will only apply to estates worth more than $3.5 million, and by 2010 there would be no tax on any estate, no matter what it is worth. Which comes closer to your view? There should be no tax on any estate, OR The estate tax should be eliminated for most people, but kept in place for the very largest estates. Nov02d No tax on any estate 44 61 32 45 41 Tax only on large estates 47 28 58 47 54 Neither/tax all estates (vol.) 4 5 5 2 2 Don't know/no answer 5 6 5 6 3 q73 Some members of Congress have proposed increasing federal income taxes for households making more than $250,000 a year. Under this plan, Congress would use the money raised by these new taxes to pay for new government programs and for tax cuts for households making less money. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea? Good idea 58 34 75 55 Bad idea 38 62 22 38 DK/NA 4 4 3 7 q74 On balance, do you think trade with other countries -- both buying and selling products -- is good for the U.S. economy, or is it bad for the U.S. economy, or does it have no effect? Feb07b Good 58 65 53 57 65 Bad 32 23 35 34 23 No effect 6 6 9 4 7 DK/NA 4 6 3 5 5
q75 Which of the following statements comes closer to your opinion? Trade restrictions are necessary to protect domestic industries, Or Free trade must be allowed, even if domestic industries are hurt by foreign competition? Total Rep Dem Ind Jan06b % % % % % Restriction necessary 68 66 72 64 64 Free trade must be allowed 24 26 20 26 29 Don't know/no answer 8 8 8 10 7 q76 Do you think of investment in the stock market as generally a safe investment or generally a risky investment? Dec06a Safe 22 32 19 18 27 Risky 73 63 75 77 66 DK/NA 5 5 6 5 7 q77 & q78 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE q79 How much have you heard or read about the home mortgage crisis -- that is, problems concerning mortgages repayments and the banking and home-loan industry? Have you heard a lot, some, not much or nothing at all? A lot 60 56 61 61 Some 24 29 23 21 Not much 11 11 10 12 Nothing at all 6 4 6 6 DK/NA 0 0 0 0 q80 Do you think the federal government should provide financial help to homeowners who are having trouble repaying their mortgages because their rates went up or shouldn't the federal government do this? Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Should 53 32 68 52 Should not 41 65 25 41 Don't know/no answer 6 3 7 7 q81 What if assisting these homeowners could cost the government and taxpayers at least $30 billion? Then, do you think the federal government should help homeowners who took out mortgage loans that they are now having trouble paying or shouldn't the federal government do this? Should 35 18 51 29 Should not in q81 14 13 12 17 Should not/dk in q80 47 68 32 48 Don't know/no answer 4 1 5 6
q82 What if assisting these homeowners would prevent them from losing their homes, then, do you think the federal government should help homeowners who took out mortgage loans that they are now having trouble paying or shouldn't the federal government do this? Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Should 7 8 6 7 Should /DK in q80 59 35 75 59 Should not 31 56 16 31 Don't know/no answer 3 1 3 3 q83 Do you think the federal government should provide financial help to banks and mortgage companies that made loans that people can no longer afford to pay back or shouldn't the federal government do this? Should 28 25 33 26 Should not 62 65 58 65 Don't know/no answer 10 10 9 9 q84 Some people say having the federal government help out banks and mortgage companies could limit any possible recession. Other people say having the federal government help out banks and mortgage companies would encourage the companies to rely too much on government assistance. What do you think? Do you think the federal government should help out banks and mortgage companies or shouldn't the federal government do this? Help banks - Limit recession 30 27 36 27 Don't help banks - Rely to 61 67 56 64 Don't know/no answer 9 6 8 9 q85 Who do you think is mostly to blame for the home mortgage crisis: 1. The borrowers who should not have taken out loans they might have trouble paying if interest rates went up, OR 2. The mortgage lenders who approved mortgages to people who might not be able to afford higher interest rates, OR 3. The regulators who were supposed to supervise the mortgage lending business and protect consumers? Borrowers 14 20 11 12 Lenders 28 23 32 25 Regulators 40 30 42 44 Other (vol) 0 0 0 0 All three (vol) 11 15 7 11 Comb (vol) 7 9 6 6 DK/NA 0 3 2 2 q86 Are you currently employed, or are you temporarily out of work, or are you not in the market for work at all? Currently employed 59 66 57 54 Temporarily out of work 11 3 14 15 Not in the market for work 17 19 16 18 Retired (vol) 13 12 13 13 DK/NA 0 0 0 0
q87 In the past couple of years would you say you have felt MORE secure and confident that you can continue in your job as long as you want, or LESS secure and confident, or has there been NO change? ** AMONG THOSE CURRENTLY EMPLOYED ** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % More 21 32 16 19 Less 35 25 38 40 No change 43 43 46 38 DK/NA 1 0 0 3 q88 Do you think what you are currently paying for housing is more than you can afford, about as much as you can afford, or could you afford more if you wanted? Apr91a More than can afford 13 9 19 10 10 As much as can afford 56 50 56 61 56 Could afford more 25 36 19 24 31 Don't know/no answer 6 5 6 5 3 q89 In your community, are wages generally keeping up with the cost of living, or not? Yes 32 41 29 29 No 62 54 65 65 Don't know/no answer 6 5 6 6 q90 Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out? Mar08a Right thing 34 68 13 32 36 Stayed out 62 26 85 62 59 Don't know/no answer 4 6 2 6 5 UNWEIGHTED Total Respondents 1368 WEIGHTED Total Republicans 382 352 Total Democrats 535 554 Total Independents 451 462