A.P. Møller - Mærsk DDF: Virksomhedsdagen, June 2013
Forward-looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as various factors, many of which are beyond A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S control, may cause actual development and results to differ materially from the expectations contained in the presentation. Page 2 DDF Presentation 2013
Agenda Executive summery 1. Setting the stage 2. Strategy and ambitions Maersk Line Maersk Oil APM Terminals Maersk Drilling 3. Portfolio Management 4. Financing 5. Q&A Page 3 DDF Presentation 2013
Company profile The A.P. Moller - Maersk Group is represented in 130 countries, employing around 121,000 people and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark. Our market cap is USD 32bn and the Group reported USD 4bn net profit in 2012. Facilitating global containerized trade Maersk Line carries around 14% of all seaborne containers and, together with APM Terminals and Damco, provides infrastructure for global trade Supporting the global demand for energy The Group is involved with production of oil and gas and other oil related activities including drilling, offshore services, towage and transportation of crude oil and products Page 4 DDF Presentation 2013
Strategy and ambitions Group strategic focus Invest in profitable growth with the objective to at least meet the Group s historical ROIC at 10% over the cycle; USD > 1bn profit contribution from each of the four core growth units; Continue historical trend of increasing dividends per share supported by underlying earnings growth; Secure liquidity buffer and maintain a conservative capital structure; Comply with the financial ratios required of a strong investment grade rated company over the cycle Page 5 DDF Presentation 2013
Building four world class businesses Maersk Line Maersk Oil APM Terminals Opportunistic core Damco Svitzer Maersk Tankers Strategic investments Dansk Supermarked Danske Bank Assets managed for value DFDS Page 6 DDF Presentation 2013 Höegh Autoliners Others Maersk Drilling Maersk Supply Service
Executing on Group strategy Q1 2013 Page 7 DDF Presentation 2013 Profit was USD 790m and ROIC was 8.0% Maersk Line reduced unit costs mainly through vessel network efficiencies and increased rates enabled through active capacity adjustments Maersk Oil executed on; Two field development plans approved (Balloch, UK and Tyra SE, DK) The El Merk field in Algeria went on stream Entitlement production declined, while production stabilised when adjusted for the reduced share of DUC 2P reserves increased 4% in 2012 APM Terminals and Maersk Drilling are on track Balance sheet prepared for future investments as net interest-bearing debt declined by USD 1.1bn during Q1
The group is in a good position to capitalize on growth in emerging countries - more than half of our profit comes from here... Page 8 DDF Presentation 2013
... which also entails risks. Page 9 DDF Presentation 2013
Maersk Line Strategic focus Top quartile performer EBIT margin 5% above peers Growing with market and funded by its own cash flow Delivering stable returns above cost of capital Getting value premium from customers Page 10 DDF Presentation 2013
Maersk Line EBIT margin gap to peers EBIT-margin, pp Gap to peers 15% 13% 10% 10% 07% 05% 05% 05% 5% 06% 07% 05% 05% 05% 03% 04% 01% 01% 01% 03% 04% 01% 0% 00% -02% -5% 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3 11Q1 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 Note1: The peer group includes CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, APL, Hanjin, Hyundai MM, Zim, NYK, MOL, CSCL, COSCO and OOCL. Averages are TEU-weighted Note2: CSCL, COSCO and OOCL only provide interim financials, hence their Q1/Q2 EBIT margin is based on their H1 gap and Q3/Q4 EBIT-margin is based on their H2 gap to ML. 13Q1 Chinese carriers EBIT margin has been proxied using the average of 08H1 to 12H2 gap to MLB Note3: EBIT margins are adjusted for gains/losses on sale of assets, restructuring charges, income/loss from associates. In a ddition ML s EBIT margin is also adjusted for depreciations to match with industry standards. Source: Internal reports, competitor financial reports Page 11 DDF Presentation 2013
Maersk Oil Strategic focus Producing >400,000 boepd Double digit returns Building reserves towards 10 years production Strong transparent organisation Page 12 DDF Presentation 2013
Maersk Oil s portfolio Exploration Prospects in the pipeline Diamante Torvastad Mangesh Griffon Mjosa Mulavi Rothesay Swara Tika East Bo Project Maturation Process Resources Initiate & Discoveries Assess Dunga III Select Blackjack Rascasso Valdemar WI Ockley Golden Eagle Itaipu 110 11 Flyndre & Cawdor Chissonga Tyra SE Courageous Qatar Swara Tika FDP 2012 AddaTyra L Cret Quad 9 gas blow-down 40 Bubble size indicates estimate of net resources: 50-100 mmboe Brazil 22 13 Colour indicates resource type: <50 mmboe Primarily oil Primarily gas Discoveries and prospects (Size of bubbles do not reflect volumes) Page 13 DDF Presentation 2013 Algeria Culzean Uncertainty >100 mmboe Kazakhstan UK Buckskin Wahoo AzulCelesteTurquesa Jack I Zidane Jackdaw Tyra LE Assets Denmark Johan Sverdrup Caporolo Total of 110 exploration prospects and leads in the exploration pipeline Execute Production Farsund Oceanographer Gara Define Jack II Kopervik Xana Reserves 12 Total no. of projects per phase
APM Terminals Strategic focus Best port operator in the world Strong brand; at least 50% revenue from third party customers More attractive terminals in growth markets USD >1bn annual profit (NOPAT) in 2016 Page 14 DDF Presentation 2013
APM Terminals: Projects under implementation Gothenburg CTW MV2 Vado Poti Izmir SCCT Ph 2 Aqaba Ph 2 Ningbo Lazaro Cardenas Pipavav Moin Monrovia Apapa Ph2 Callao Santos Projects under implementation Initiation phase Planning phase Execution phase Completed Page 15 DDF Presentation 2013 Onne PTP
Maersk Drilling Strategic focus Top Up quartile performer to 30 high-end rigs mainly for harsh environment and deep water USD >1bn profit annual (NOPAT) in 2018 Page 16 DDF Presentation 2013
Maersk Drilling: Fleet expansion with good contract coverage Maersk Drilling fleet # units 30 Contract backlog 100% 90% 25 22 98% 80% 79% 70% 20 15 15 10 23 10 16 16 16 17 50% 11 10 60% 51% 40% 8 41% 30% 20% 5 10% 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Standard jack-ups High-end jack-ups Midwater floaters Ultra deepwater floaters Page 17 DDF Presentation 2013 Ultra harsh jack-ups 2013 RoY 2014 2015 2016
Capital is focused on our core growth business Invested capital Maersk Maersk Line Drilling Our portfolio strategy towards 2017 Maersk Oil Other APM Terminals Q1 2012 At least 75% of the invested capital is within the four core growth businesses Maersk Line s share of the Group s invested capital is likely to be reduced towards a 25 30% range 33% 37% USD 52,243m Maersk Oil, APM Terminals and Maersk Drilling s combined share of the invested capital will increase towards a 45 50% range 7% 9% 14% Growing the business by 30 40% Recent portfolio development Q1 2013 Q1 2013 Maersk growth strategy continues with invested capital growing 1.6% compared to Q1 2012 29% USD 53,086m 9% 11% Page 18 DDF Presentation 2013 12% 39% Portfolio optimization with the four core growth businesses share of the Group s invested capital growing to 71% from 67% a year ago Reduction in Maersk Tankers s fleet, the divestment of Maersk LNG and the sale of FPSOs mainly explain the lower invested capital in the other business operations
Active portfolio management Cash flow and gains from divestments Cash flow from divestments Divestment gains (pre-tax) Cash flow from divestments of USD 10.4bn since 2007 with a pre-tax gain of USD 4.4bn since 2007 3500,0 3000,0 The Group made gross investments of USD 9.7bn in longterm growth in 2012, whereof 90% were focused on the four core growth businesses 2500,0 2000,0 1500,0 Divestments of assets and activities for USD 3.4bn in 2012, with Maersk LNG and FPSO Maersk Peregrino as the largest transactions 1000,0 500,0,0 2007 Page 19 DDF Presentation 2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Capital commitments for growth Track record for growth the cash flow used for capital expenditure has been USD 39bn accumulated for the past five years as of end of 2012 The Group has capital commitments of USD 13.6bn per 31 March 2013 Majority of the total capital commitments of USD 13.6bn is heading for the four core growth businesses Our growth ambitions will result in significant investments Newbuilding programme 2013 2014 2015 2016> Total (Number) Maersk Line 5 8 7 20 Maersk Drilling 1 5 1 7 Anchor handling vessels, tugboats and standby vessels, etc 5 8 11 21 Total Capital commitments 13 8 2013 2014 2015 2016> 40 Total USD billion Maersk Line 1.0 1.2 0.8 3.0 Maersk Oil 3.6 APM Terminals 3.1 Maersk Drilling Anchor handling vessels, tugboats and standby vessels, etc Other Total Page 20 DDF Presentation 2013 1.0 0.1 2.1 1.5 0.1 2.7 0.3 1.1 2.7 0.2 1.0 13.6
Major Capex Commitments Maersk Line Twenty Triple E vessels to be delivered between 2013 and 2015. No new orders have been placed after the Triple E Maersk Drilling Maersk Drilling currently has seven rigs under construction. The orderbook includes three ultra harsh jack-up rigs and four ultra deepwater drillships. The new building programme representing an investment of USD 4.5bn APM Terminals Recently entered into an agreement to create and operate Aegean Gateway Terminal (AGT) in Turkey. The initial investment for the terminal is approximately USD 400m. APM Terminals has total capital commitments of USD 3.1bn Page 21 DDF Presentation 2013 Maersk Oil Five major projects are approved by the authorities and execution is progressing towards first production. Exploration expenses are expected to be above USD 1.0bn in 2013
Debt and funding 1. 2. Optimising Debt portfolio Raised more than USD 5bn in new financing USD 1.9bn from the NOK, EUR and SEK bond markets Issued Group s first SEK 2,500m (~USD 380m) 5-year bond October 2012 Increasing financial flexibility 3. 11 Export Credit Agencies 12 13 14 31 Liquidity buffer of USD 13.6bn end 2012 up from USD 11.3bn Bonds Average debt maturity about five years No immediate refinancing needs 16 Inner cycle 2011 debt portfolio composition Total commitment 2012 USD 30bn Strong execution on planned divestments Continued divestment of non core businesses (USD 3.4bn) 4.0 0.4 3.5 3.0 1.2 2.5 0.3 0.1 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 LNG FPSO Maersk Peregrino Page 22 DDF Presentation 2013 26 9 Maersk Equipment Xiamen China (from Services (Chassis) 50% to 25% ownership) Other Shipfinancing institutions Bank Financing 2011 2012 Percentage Continued focus on diversifying funding sources USD bn 1.5 8 37 7 16 Committed undrawn facilities Project Financing
Cash flow and debt The Group reduced its net interest-bearing debt by USD 1.1bn in Q1 2013 to USD 13.4bn compared to end-2012 The Group s FY12 net interest-bearing debt has been restated from USD 15.7bn to USD 14.5bn as a result of new IFRS consolidation of Joint Venture rules Development in Net Interest-bearing Debt USD bn 14.5 2.9 1.4 0.1 NIBD 2012 EBITDA WC 0.2 0.2 13.4 0.6 Paid taxes CAPEX Financial Other* NIBD items 2013 Q1 * Other includes change in debt held for sale, currency adjustments, etc. Page 23 DDF Presentation 2013
Final remarks We intend to grow our invested capital by 30-40% We will increase our ROIC by portfolio optimisation and being disciplined on capex We are financially prepared to fund both growth and increased dividends Page 24 DDF Presentation 2013
Side 25 Q&A Page 24 DDF Presentation 2013
Consolidated financial information Income statement (USD million) Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Change FY 2012 14,047 14,327-2.0% 59,089 EBITDA 2,890 2,467 17.2% 12,252 Depreciation, etc. 1,080 1,220-11.5% 5,211 40 325-87.7% 621 EBIT 1,941 1,646 17.9% 8,014 Profit before tax 1,690 1,493 13.2% 7,300 790 1,175-32.8% 4,038 Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Change FY 2012 2,396 1,138 110.5% 7,506 Cash Flow used for capital expenditure -1,470-837 75.6% -6,171 Net interest-bearing debt 13,439 14,399-6.7% 14,489 Earnings per share (USD) 163 248-34.3% 857 ROIC (%) 8.0 10.2-2.2 8.9 Revenue Gain on sale of non-current assets, etc. net Profit for the period Key figures (USD million) Cash Flow from operating activities Dividend per share (DKK) Page 27 DDF Presentation 2013 1,200
Return on invested capital Group ROIC 2005-Q1 2013 Breakdown of ROIC by business Business 18% 16% Invested capital USDm ROIC % Q1 2013 ROIC % Q1 2012 16% A. P. Moller Maersk Group 53,086 8.0 10.2 Maersk Line 20,570 4.0-12.7 Maersk Oil 6,515 20.6 76.5 6% APM Terminals 5,555 12.0 20.1 4% Maersk Drilling 4,692 13.0 13.0 Maersk Supply Service 2,164 10.1 7.8 Maersk Tankers 3,421-1.7-3.1 Damco 518 4.7 8.0 Svitzer 1,501 8.1 8.3 Dansk Supermarked Group 2,824 7.5 6.9 Other 5,900 5.4 10.5 14% 12% 10% 12% 10% 10% 10% 08% 8% 09% 08% 2% 0% 00% -2% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Ambition going forward is >10% ROIC Page 28 DDF Presentation 2013 Q1 2013
Outlook for 2013 The Group still expects a result for 2013 below the 2012 result (USD 4.0bn). The net result is expected to be in line with 2012 (USD 2.9bn) excluding impairment losses, divestment gains and gain from the tax settlement in Algeria. Cash flow used for capital expenditure is expected to be somewhat higher than the USD 6.2bn in 2012, while cash flow from operating activities is expected to develop in line with the result Maersk Line still expects a result above 2012 (USD 461m) based primarily on further unit cost reductions. Global demand for seaborne containers is expected to increase by 2-4% in 2013, lower on the Asia Europe trades but supported by higher growth for imports to emerging economies Maersk Oil still expects a result significantly below the result for 2012 (USD 2.4bn), which included one-off income of USD 1.0bn from the Algerian tax dispute and divestment gains. The operational result is expected to be below the operational result for 2012 (USD 1.5bn) excluding the Algerian tax dispute and divestment gains. Maersk Oil expects its entitlement production for 2013 to be 240,000-250,000 boepd, lower in the first half than the second half of 2013 at an average oil price of USD 105 per barrel. The lower entitlement production is predominantly caused by a natural production decline from mature fields and reduced ownership share in Denmark, countered by start-up in El Merk and Gryphon. Exploration costs are expected to be above USD 1.0bn APM Terminals still expects a result above 2012 (USD 701m) and to grow ahead of the market supported by volumes from new terminals, whilst improving productivity in existing facilities Maersk Drilling still expects a result above the 2012 result (USD 347m) The total result from all other activities is still expected to be above the 2012 result excluding divestment gains and impairment losses The outlook for 2013 is subject to considerable uncertainty, not least due to developments in the global economy Page 29 DDF Presentation 2013 Sensitivities for the remainder of 2013