Shinkansen Investment before and after JNR Reform Institute of Transportation Economics in Japan Fumio KUROSAKI, Ph.D.
Outline of Presentation 1) Shinkansen Projects in JNR Era 2) Shinkansen Projects after JNR Reform 3) Through-Train Operation in Japan 4) Investment & Performance of Shinkansen Lines
Shinkansen Projects by JNR Joetsu Shinkansen Okayama Hakata Niigata Shin-Osaka Morioka Tohoku Shinkansen Omiya Ueno Tokyo Tokaido Shinkansen Sanyo Shinkansen
JNR Reform in April 1987 Shinkansen operation was divided into JR East, JR Central JR-Hokkaido and JR West JR-West JR-East JR-Kyushu JR-Shikoku JR-Central
Projects after JNR Reform (1) <Shinkansen Lines> Completed by JNR reform (1987) Completed since JNR reform Under construction Planning stage Hokuriku Shinkansen Tsuruga Nagano Sapporo Shin-Aomori Tohoku Shinkansen Morioka Takasaki Takeo-Onsen Ueno Tokyo (Shin-)Osaka Nagasaki Hakata Kyushu Shinkansen Kagoshima-Chuo
Projects after JNR Reform (2) <Conventional Line> Mini-Shinkansen (completed) Akita Shinjo Fukushima (Dedicated) High-speed train Mini-Shinkansen train
1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Line Length and Transport Volume (Transport Volume: million passenger-km) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 (Line Length: km) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Total Operating Line Length Total Transport Volume Source: Institute of Transportation Statistics (1995), MLIT (2013)
Construction of New Shinkansen Lines <New Shinkansen Lines> 1. Construction: Public Works Completed since JNR reform Under construction Lease Fee paid by JR Subsidies from Government (Central Gov. : Local Gov. = 2:1) Construction Cost Hokuriku Shinkansen Tohoku Shinkansen 2. Operation: Vertical Separation JR Companies responsible for O&M Lease Lease Fee Kyushu Shinkansen JRTT (Government Agency) Owner of Infra. & Facilities
Usage Fees : Expected Revenue : Expected Expenses Usage fees of new Shinkansen Lines b The amount is calculated a based on b-a Case without Shinkansen Line Case with a Shinkansen Line Benefits received as an operator of the new Shinkansen Line (Calculation Period) 30 years old
Through-Train Operation in Japan (1) Network of Railway A Network of Railway B Rolling Stock of Railway A Rolling Stock of Railway B Operation by Railway A Operation by Railway B Revenue to Railway A Revenue to Railway B
Through-Train Operation in Japan (2) Hakata Tokyo Kagoshima -Chuo Through-train services Shin-Osaka Through-train services Kyushu Shinkansen Sanyo Shinkansen Tokaido Shinkansen JR-Kyushu JR-West JR-Central Terminal Station Border Station Border Station Terminal Station Clear Separation of Operational Responsibility
Through-Train Operation in Japan (3) Timetable at Tokyo Station 3 minute train headway
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Transport Volume of the Lines (Unit: million passenger km) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Tokaido Sanyo Tohoku Joetsu Hokuriku Kyushu Source: MLIT (2013), JR West (2013), JR Central (2007; 2013a)
Passenger Traffic Density (1) Passenger Traffic Density (passengers/day) = Transport Volume (Passenger km)/ (Operating Line Length Operating Days) Passenger Traffic Density Number of Passengers Transport Volume (Passenger km) A Sta. B Sta. C Sta. D Sta. Operating Line Length
Passenger Traffic Density (2) Table: Traffic Density of Shinkansen Lines in 2011 (Unit: thousand passengers / day) No. Name of Shinkansen Line Traffic Density 1 Tokaido 219.6 2 Sanyo 71.8 3 Tohoku 50.8 4 Joetsu 39.6 5 Hokuriku 17.8 6 Kyushu 17.3 Source: Calculation based on MLIT (2013), JR West (2013), JR Central (2013a)
1) Tokyo - Omiya 2) Omiya - Utsunomiya 3) Utsunomiya - Fukushima 4) Fukushima - Sendai 5) Sendai - Ichinoseki 6) Ichinoseki - Morioka 7) Morioka - Hachinohe 8) Hachinohe - Shin-Aomori 1) Omiya - Takasaki 2) Takasaki - EchigoYuzawa 3) EchigoYuzawa - Niigata 4) Takasaki -Nagano Passenger Traffic Density (3) 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Closer to Tokyo 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Closer to Tokyo 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 Tohoku Shinkansen Line The section closer to Tokyo 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 Joetsu and Hokuriku Shinkansen Line Source: JR East (2013) 1) Transport volume is large 2) Ridership is increasing
Shinkansen Commuters (Persons) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Kyushu Hokuriku Joetsu Tohoku Tokaido & Sanyo 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: MLIT (2013) The sale of Shinkansen commuter passes is increasing. Shinkansen expanded the commutable districts around Metropolitan areas.
Revenue from Shinkansen & Conventional Lines (Unit: billion yen) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 (Unit: billion yen) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 JR East JR Central JR West JR East JR Central JR West 1987 2011 1987 2011 1. Revenue from Shinkansen Lines 2 Revenue from Conventional Lines Source: JR East (2012), JR Central (2013a), JR West (2013) Revenue from Shinkansen has increased largely.
Management of JRs and Shinkansen Lines (Table) Share of Revenue and Rolling Stock Kilometers Shinkansen Share of Transport Revenue *1 Shinkansen Share of Rolling Stock Kilometers *2 1987 2011 2011 JR East 22% 28% 20% JR Central 87% 91% 81% JR West 42% 46% 37% * 1: Shinkansen revenue / total transport revenue * 2: Shinkansen rolling stock kilometers / total rolling stock kilometers Source: Calculation based on JR East (2012), JR Central (2013b), JR West (2013)
Management of JRs and Shinkansen Lines (Table) Share of Revenue and Rolling Stock Kilometers Shinkansen Share of Transport Revenue *1 Shinkansen Share of Rolling Stock Kilometers *2 1987 2011 2011 JR East 22% 28% 20% Shinkansen is a better revenue earner JR Central 87% 91% 81% per rolling stock kilometer Increasing JR West 42% 46% 37% * 1: Shinkansen revenue / total transport revenue * 2: Shinkansen rolling stock kilometers / total rolling stock kilometers Source: Calculation based on JR East (2012), JR Central (2013b), JR West (2013) > > >
Final Comment 1) This report primarily discussed Shinkansen s effects on operating companies. 2) Shinkansen operation has large impacts on the social and economic development. Ex.) raising real estate value, easing highway congestion, stimulating job creation, etc. 3) In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the project, it is necessary to include these social and economic benefits.
References (Selected) Institute of Transportation Statistics (1995) JNR Annual Railway Statistic, Institute of Transportation Statistics JR Central (2007) 20 Year History of JR Central JR Central JR Central (2013a) Annual Report 2013, JR Central JR East (2012) 2012-2013 Corporate Profile, JR East JR East (2013) Home page of JR East, JR West (2013) JR West in terms of Data 2013, JR West Kurosaki, F. (2008) An Analysis of Vertical Separation of Railways, ITS Thesis, University of Leeds MLIT (2013) Railways in terms of the Figures, Institute for Transport Policy Studies
Thank you for your attention Fumio KUROSAKI, Ph.D.