Seattle Public Schools and Housing Report Natasha M. Rivers, PhD Table of Contents Overview and Introduction p.2 Basic Population and Housing Unit Characteristics, Decennial Census p.3 Collaborative Housing Study with Integrated Economics p.5 Background on Seattle Housing and Neighborhoods p.6 Renting in Seattle Public Schools p.8 Housing Affordability and the Impact on Neighborhoods p.10 The Seattle Comprehensive Plan s Ongoing Housing Initiatives p.12 Housing Affordability and the Impact on Schools p.13 Summary of Findings p.15 Works Cited p.16 1
Overview and Introduction Enrollment at Seattle Public Schools is projected to increase for the next five years. As of the 2014-2015 school year, there are approximately 52,000 students enrolled across 97 schools. We are adding nearly 1,000 students a year and by 2020, we are expecting 60,000 students enrolled. The Seattle Public Schools district is acquiring more buildings to meet capacity needs at all grade levels, especially high school, and the district is renovating older properties to be more efficient. The district is growing with the City of Seattle, and this report focuses specifically on how housing - and the type of housing available - is changing the demographics of the city and school district. In this report, I will be synthesizing data from multiple sources into one summary document on housing and related subjects. Seattle has entered a time of rapid urban growth. With over 640,000 people, Seattle is one of the fastest-growing major cities in the nation. (P.17 SSNAP Report) According to the 2010 Census Profile, the total population of the City of Seattle is 608,660 people. The city added roughly 100,000 residents over the last decade. The majority of current residents are working-age population (aged 18 to 64) with a noticeable gain in the 25-35 year old range. The racial composition of the city breaks down as: 70% white; 8% black; 13.8% Asian, 5% two or more races; and American Indian, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, and some other race accumulated to less than 4%. There are 283,510 total occupied housing units - about 48% are owner occupied units and 52% are renter occupied units. Research suggests that the trend of slightly more renters than owners in the city will continue due to the high prices and limited stock of homes. 2
As the City of Seattle grows, Seattle Public Schools and the district s Enrollment Planning department tracks residential projections, employment and employers who produce the most job growth (and traffic buildup in the various neighborhoods), transportation and construction projects, and assesses unused district properties, Watch List schools, and birth rates over time in the Puget Sound region. The Seattle Comprehensive Plan is renewed every 20 years and it involves an assessment of expectations and goals for housing, jobs, transportation, quality of life, and the environment. The current plan s theme is Seattle 2035: Your City, Your Future. Seattle is expected to add 60,000 residents by 2025. From 1994 to 2014, Seattle added 50,000 to 60,000 households (www.seattle.gov). A household consists of all the people who occupy a housing unit. The Census Bureau also collects data on the duration of residence. Quick Facts from the City of Seattle: - The 2014 population estimate for Seattle was 640,660 - Number of households: 283,510 - Average household size was 2 people and average family size was ~3 people 3
- The 2010 population count for Seattle was 608,660. Seattle has the largest population of cities in King County and the broader Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro Area. Seattle ranks 23 rd on list of most populous cities in the U.S. Forecast from the City of Seattle: - As of 2010, about 31% of King County s 1.9 million residents lived in Seattle. The Office of Financial Management forecasts that the county s population will grow from about 1.9 million persons in 2010 to about 2.4 million persons in 2040. Currently, 38% of Seattleites both live and work (their primary job) in the city and 62% of those who work in the city, live outside of it (SSNAP 2014). Basic Population and Housing Unit Characteristics, Decennial Census In 2010, adults (18 and over) made up 85% of the population and children made up 15% of the population in the city of Seattle. There was a similar percent distribution for the previous 1990 and 2000 censuses. Seattle is predominantly white at 73.7% while non-whites/persons of color made up 26.3% of the total population in 2010. When comparing the change in total housing units from 2000 to 2010, there was a 9.7% increase in occupied housing units and 108% 4
increase of vacant housing units. The 2010 data is a reflection of 2009 data, and therefore the increase in vacant housing units may be a direct outcome from the 2008 recession and housing crisis. Growth Targets for the City of Seattle: - To add 47,000 additional housing units between 2005 and 2024 - There have been 29,330 net new housing units added from 2005 to 2012 (about 62% of the target) Highlights for the City of Seattle: - The 14% increase in housing units between 2000 and 2010 substantially outpaced population growth and household information within the same decade. The increase was markedly higher than the 9% housing growth seen in the 1990s. - In the two years between April 1, 2010 and April 1, 2012, approximately 4,337 units were added to Seattle s housing stock. - Growth targets in Seattle s Comprehensive Plan: There are growth targets for the city s urban centers and urban villages. The new allocation for Seattle is 86,000 new housing units over a 25 year period from 2015 ending in 2040. 5
Collaborative Housing Study with Integrated Economics The Seattle Public Schools Enrollment Planning department s long-term outlook will include working with a consultant from Integrated Economics. This collaboration will involve developing a model that maps the relationship between district enrollment and the components that make up Seattle s housing market. The new model will make clear which categories of housing drive enrollment under current market conditions. The Seattle region relies on multifamily units to house families. Through this work, we will able to better assess housing shifts and buying and selling in Seattle, post the 2008 recession. There are six proposed tasks to complete through this collaboration. We will develop housing unit data for 2013, 2014, and 2015; compare this housing unit data to long-term neighborhood cycles; align past data to the City of Seattle s demarcations of neighborhoods, instead of the district s elementary school attendance areas; assess performance of 2014-15 projections versus October 1 actual enrollment and current-model predictions; explore potential 6
Kindergarten-model improvements and develop Kindergarten-projections for 2015-16; and develop a platform for sharing neighborhood level data and analyses. Background on Seattle Housing and Neighborhoods Seattle and the Puget Sound region have seen a large amount of population growth since the late 1970 s and are expected to continue growing (seattle.gov). Most housing growth in Seattle is in urban centers and villages. One-person households are common, affordable family-sized housing is scarce, and more homes are within multifamily buildings. Nearly two-thirds of Seattle is zoned for single family housing, but close to 60% of King County is currently zoned for multifamily housing. To accommodate issues of affordability, more multifamily units have been built, especially the construction of townhomes. Townhome zoning is 10.1% of the City of Seattle. Townhouses are touted as more energy efficient, costing about $50,000 less than a single-family home, and have been built into tracts with the largest numerical gains in housing such as Greenwood/Licton Springs, Fremont, Ballard, Magnolia, North Beacon Hill, and High Point in West Seattle. According to a recent Seattle Times article, Seattle ranks number 1 on the list of the 100 largest U.S. cities in terms of growth of attached homes. Between 2000 and 2013, the number of attached homes nearly tripled to more than 16,000 a 175% increase -, according to Census data (Seattle Times, 2015). Urban Villages The Urban Village strategy intends to direct housing and employment growth into designated areas throughout the city. - For Seattle, there were 10 urban villages targeted for 2015-2035 o Urban Centers: Downtown, University Community o Hub Urban Village: Ballard, Lake City, West Seattle Junction o Residential Urban Village: Westwood Highland Park, Rainier Beach, North Beacon Hill, Eastlake, Aurora Licton Springs 7
Table 1: Urban Center/Urban Residential Growth Report (Finaled Permits) Urban Center/Village Growth 1995-2004 Growth 2005-2015 Target 2005-2024 % of Target Met Downtown 5,456 7,945 10,000 79% Urban Center First 2,305 4,454 3,500 127% Hill/Capitol Hill Urban Center University 815 1,973 2,450 81% Community Urban Centers 10,341 20,917 27,450 76% Hub Urban 2,560 6,787 4,800 141% Villages Residential 4,631 7,489 7,180 107% Urban Villages Total 24,355 44,847 47,000 95% Source: DPD Permit Data Warehouse Building Construction Permits Note: Finaled permits are net new units built by year finaled Growth Management Act (See page 23 of SNAPP) The Growth Management Act (GMA) was passed in 1990. The Washington State Legislature sought to create a method for comprehensive land use planning involving communities, counties, cities, and the private sector that would prevent uncoordinated and unplanned growth. The legislature found that this type of uncontrolled growth posed a threat to the environment, sustainable economic development, and the health, safety, and high quality of life enjoyed by residents of Washington State. To address this threat, the GMA requires cities and counties of a certain size and growth rate to adopt coordinated comprehensive plans and development regulations. Such plans and regulations are guided by fourteen goals that include specific elements relating to land use, transportation, housing, economic development, capital facilities, natural resources, and utilities. Renting in Seattle Rent in Seattle has increased and is steadily increasing in all parts of the city and the greater Puget Sound region. The highest average rent for one-bedrooms is $1,871 and is found in the Belltown, Downtown, and South Lake Union neighborhoods. The lowest average rent for one-bedrooms is found in the Rainier Valley neighborhood at $1,063. When compared to other 8
major cities in Washington State, Seattle did not have the highest average rent for one-bedrooms, but was ranked close to the top with a city-wide average rent of $1,443 - a 7.8% change since the previous year. The Seattle Times recently published a report, Rents Climb Even as New Apartments Hit Market, penned by Sanjay Bhatt who also served as the host of the Priced Out event on Affordable Seattle (more information on Priced-Out is below). This report charts the highest and lowest rents for average one-bedrooms in Seattle neighborhoods and other cities in Washington State as of 2014. Highest Rent Lowest Rents Location Rent Change /Yr. Location Rent Change /Yr. Belltown, Downtown, SLU $1,871 4.1% Rainier Valley $1,063 8.4% Ballard 1,533 13.1 North Seattle 1,072 5.5 Queen Anne 1,472 7.1 Beacon Hill 1,082 2.7 Green Lake 1,470 10 Magnolia 1,206 1.4 Cap Hill/ East Lake 1,462 12 -- -- -- 9
Highest Rents Lowest Rents City Rent Change/YR City Rent Change/YR Kirkland $1,522 9.7% SeaTac $784 4.8% Mercer Island 1,456 2.4 Auburn 802 4.7 Seattle 1,443 7.8 Everett 820 4.6 Bellevue 1,432 6.9 Marysville 821 1.9 Issaquah 1,369 5.2 Federal Way 835 7.2 Homelessness Homelessness is a growing problem in Seattle. The 34 th Annual One Night Count of Homeless People in King County had over 800 volunteers. The Homeless Housing Program of King County s Community Services Division and the Seattle/King County Coalition of Homelessness found that over 9,000 people were known to be homeless in King County in 2014. Local programs served over 6,000 people indoors; however, at least 3,123 men, women, and children were without shelter in King County - an increase from 2013. Unfortunately, there are a growing number of children enrolled in the Seattle Public Schools who are victims of homelessness. The number of homeless students in 2012-2013 has increased by over 1,400 students since 2007-2008. Most of these students live in shelters. Table 2: Homeless Students in Seattle Public Schools, 2007-2013, OSPI Year Total Shelters Doubled Up Unsheltered Hotels/Motels 2012-2013 2370 1678 587 31 74 2011-2012 1872 1531 301 13 27 2010-2011 1324 600 528 53 143 2009-2010 1139 644 450 15 30 2008-2009 869 815 47 0 7 2007-2008 930 806 86 0 38 10
Housing Affordability and the Impact on Neighborhoods The University of Washington sponsored the LiveWire series, Priced-Out: The Struggle for An Affordable Seattle on March 31, 2015 and continued online on April 14, 2015. The Seattle Times LiveWire is a new event series that features meaningful discussions about vital issues impacting our region and its people. The events bring together local and national experts for provocative conversations on key topics moderated by a Seattle Times journalist. The rising real estate prices in King County and surrounding regions impact the quality of life for all residents. Area housing costs have become prohibitive for many. Existing Seattle city policy does not include rent control, and for would-be homeowners, the inventory of local properties for sale has diminished while listings close in record times. There is no rent control in the entire state. Sanjay Bhatt, a reporter who covers real estate for the Seattle Times, explores the views of the people of Seattle on affordable housing in several articles. On the one hand, half of the people polled believe the free market will work the affordability crisis out, while others believe it won t and Seattle will remain only affordable to those with the highest and disposable incomes. The solutions offered by those interviewed included: more housing that s affordable and better mass transit system. Housing cost burden is when households are spending more than 30 percent of their income to keep a roof over their heads. Some residents of Seattle are being priced out of their homes and neighborhoods. The poverty rates are persistent with stagnant wages for certain careers and job openings that further complicate issues around affordability and cost of living adjustments. Stagnant wages are not keeping up with rising housing costs. The University of Washington s West Coast Poverty Center reported (2014) that the number of Washingtonians living in poverty jumped by more than 50,000 from 2012 to 2013. The poverty rate computation is if the total family income is less than the threshold appropriate for that family. In 2013, the U.S. Census Bureau poverty threshold for one person who is under the age of 65 years is $12,119, and for two person household under the age of 65 years is $15,142, and a three person household is $18,552. There has been an increase in poverty rate 11
and higher income inequality in the city of Seattle. Lower income households experienced little gain from the economic recovery. The median household income in the state was $58,405 which is slightly lower than the median income in Bellevue which was $67,479. Bellevue often serves as comparison for Seattle due to their similar demographic shifts. According to the Seattle Sustainable Neighborhoods Assessment Project (SSNAP), poverty rates ranged widely amongst the previously mentioned urban villages between 2000 and 2012. Rainier Beach had a 2012 American Community Survey (ACS) poverty rate three times higher (24.5%) than West Seattle Junction (7.9%). Rainier Beach, University Community, Downtown, and Lake City have a much higher housing cost burden than Eastlake, Ballard, and West Seattle relative to all urban villages in the study. In 2009, Seattle voters approved a $145 million property tax levy to provide affordable housing opportunities for low-income Seattle residents. According to the 2014 Report of Accomplishments for the Seattle Housing Levy, the local property taxes are levied against real estate to finance various local government functions in Seattle. The value of the real estate is set by the King County assessor, based on market conditions, and the tax rates are set to generate sufficient funds to meet government obligations. The levy provides funding for seven years, 2010 to 2016. 12
The Mayor of Seattle is convening a twenty-eight member stakeholder Housing Affordability and Livability Advisory Committee (HALA) that will seek to identify and evaluate policy options to create more available housing for people of all income levels. There are seven strategy work groups: financing, new affordable housing resources, zoning and housing types, construction costs and timelines, tenant access and protections, preservation, and sustainable homeownership (murray.seattle.gov/housing). The Seattle Comprehensive Plan s Ongoing Housing Initiatives (Selected) Below are key priority action plans as developed by the community and the city. Northside The Ballard neighborhood is one of the fastest growing urban villages. There has been an increase in total population, increase in housing units, and finalized permits. The action plan for Ballard mostly consists of smart growth, planning for the light rail to Ballard, multimodal transportation, and urban design to accommodate the continued growth in this neighborhood. South Seattle One overarching goal for the Rainier Beach neighborhood is to have strong schools with excellent programs and strong enrollment. The City of Seattle, Rainier Beach community members and Seattle Public Schools will work together to increase community use of school space, recruit a higher education institution (a community or branch college), reinforce community connections to the youth, and involve parents and youth in multigenerational programs like ELL (English Language Learners). Other goals include: building a strong local economy, revitalize the commercial business core, foster strong entrepreneurship, and sustainable wealth creation. The strategies for implementing these goals are to increase the range of retail establishments, work with the Office of Economic Development and the Rainier Valley Community Fund. Central and Downtown The 23 rd Ave Action Plan consists of providing a mix of small and large businesses that serve the local and the larger community. This action plan is also going to provide employment 13
opportunities and training for youth including apprenticeships, internships, and mentoring. There will also be efforts to improve the academic achievement for Central Area students, improve access to living wage jobs, trades, as well as entrepreneurial skills. The plan also supports employing and housing local workforces for future development as well as creating affordable and diverse housing choices. In the central and downtown areas, the fastest growing urban villages are Uptown, South Lake Union, MLK at Holly Street, and Belltown. Uptown is defined as five distinct areas: Denny/Broad/Aurora triangle; the Queen Anne Avenue commercial area; the Mercer/Roy Corridor; the residential area to the west of Queen Anne Avenue, and Seattle Center with its connections to each of these areas. Uptown is experiencing residential growth that has outpaced job growth. From 2008-2013 1,606 new housing units were developed in the Uptown neighborhood achieving 161% of its 20-year growth target. Housing efforts in this urban center are centered on affordable multifamily and single-family homes. The city currently has two programs that provide incentives for the inclusion affordable housing: the Multifamily Tax Exemption program and Incentive Zoning. The Multifamily Tax Exemption program provides a tax exemption for residential improvements on multifamily projects in exchange for setting aside 20% of the units for moderate-age workers. Incentive Zoning provides for extra floor area above the base height limit in residential developments in exchange for affordable housing. Affordable housing is intended to primarily serve Seattle s moderate-wage workers. Housing Affordability and the Impact on Schools There are several Watch List schools in the Seattle Public Schools district. Schools placed on the watch list have reached their capacity or will do so in the near future. The district is aware of these capacity issues and is working to address this issue through funding to open new schools and renovate or expand others. The majority of watch list schools are located in the northern region of the city. 14
The elementary and middle schools that are currently on the capacity watch list are: Jane Addams, Alki, B.F. Day, Broadview-Thomson, Bryant, Concord, Fairmount Park, Coe, Green Lake, John Hay, John Rogers, Lafayette, Loyal Heights, McGilvra, Olympic View, Schmitz Park, View Ridge, Viewlands, Wedgwood, West Woodland, and Whittier. The high schools on the capacity watch list are Ballard and Roosevelt. There are other high schools that are experiencing growth; however, some schools are doing so within the normal range, while other growth is necessary because their previous enrollment trend was in decline. Summary of Findings Growth in Seattle is likely to continue and the school district s enrollment numbers will increase over time as a result. Part of this growth is due to the new migration into the city of individuals, families, and employers that have relocated from other parts of the state or the nation. This growth is expected to level off, but not in the immediate future. Factors such as access to jobs and housing make Seattle attractive to some, while discouraging others from moving to the city. As old neighborhoods redevelop to accommodate newcomers, the city is experiencing a vertical growth (as opposed to horizontal). There is only so much land and currently the permits to build are concentrated in the central, downtown, and northern neighborhoods of the city. Seattle Public Schools and its Enrollment Planning department are preparing for growth by tracking it and working with city departments and other external experts (ex. Integrated Economics) to ensure that we can predict enrollment trends accurately by making the necessary improvements to our models. 15
Works Cited 2009 Seattle Housing Levy 2014 Report of Accomplishments http://www.seattle.gov/housing/levy/default.htm 2014 Seattle 2035: Updating Seattle s Comprehensive Plan http://www.seattle.gov/dpd/groups/pan/@pan/ducments/web_informational/p211285 Berger, Knute. 2015. Eye-opening study: Seattle is becoming an urban bedroom community Crosscut: News of the Great Nearby Homeless Housing Program of King County s Community Services Division in partnership with The Seattle King County Coalition of Homelessness Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) Table: Homeless Students in Seattle Public Schools Seattle Department of Planning and Development Table: Permit Data Warehouse Building Construction Permits Seattle Sustainable Neighborhoods Assessment Project Seattle.gov Mayor s plan for affordable housing and the HALA Committee http://murray.seattle.gov/housing/#sthash.txjwpds3.dpbs The Seattle Times Articles (2015): Rents climb even as new apartments hit market Priced-out: the struggle for an affordable Seattle West Coast Poverty Center, University of Washington Table: Number in Poverty and Poverty Rates in 2013 in Principal Cities in the Seattle- Tacoma-Bellevue metro area 16
Winter, Mikaela, Wiliamson, S., Patterson, M.S., Barbe, D. and Greaney, Y. SSNAP Report 2014: Seattle Sustainable Neighborhoods Assessment Project (SSNAP) http://www.seattle.gov/parks/legacy/files/taxes_taxrates_levies_101.pdf 17