Capacity Planning and Management. School Board Work Session March 16, 2011

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1 Planning and Management School Board Work Session March 16, 2011

2 Agenda Revisions to Management Schedule Functional and Projections Trigger Metrics Purpose of Metrics Sample Metrics Sample Outcomes of Metric Application Boundary Adjustment Process Introduction to changes Scenario for changes 2

3 What We Need from the Board in June 2011 Adopt the trigger metrics Adopt the criteria for opening, repurposing, and closing schools Adopt the framework for the annual capacity management report 3

4 Board Policy H13.00 Requires annual capacity management report starting Fall 2011 with results of SY enrollment Identification of schools over and under functional capacity Identification of actions taken to match capacity and enrollment which may include: (1) Adding, relocating, or removing programs (2) Adjusting school boundaries (3) Adjusting geographic zones for option schools (4) Adding or removing portables (5) Adding to or renovating buildings (6) Opening, reconstituting, or closing buildings 4

5 Revised Schedule Subject Revised Date Original Date Comments Preliminary Management Report TBD January 2011 for SY Report Format TBD Metric Development March 2011 February 2011 Delayed due to 2011 Budget Development Boundary Review Rules March April February 5-Year projections and Functional Model refinement TBD Criteria for Opening, Reconstituting, Repurposing and Closing Schools Board Items - Introduced May - June April - May Economic analysis delayed due to 2011 Budget Development TBD April 6 Board Items - Adopted TBD May 4 5

6 Discussion 6

7 Definition of Functional Functional (FC) is that number of students a building can accommodate based on number of teaching stations, offices, and other spaces in the building, student population and programmatic needs of the students, service delivery models, and location of space for specialized programs. 7

8 Calculations of Functional Functional Ideal: program and average class size Forecasting Trends 3-5 years Percentage of ideal over/under Surge Annual and Immediate Homerooms Needed for upcoming SY 8

9 Why Functional Fluctuates NSAP transitional plan changes Academic Assurances and Five-year Plan roll out (program delivery model changes) Main difference between the 2015 FC and 2010 FC: 2015 FC was based on the anticipated programs and services in FC represented the current programs and services offered at each school. 9

10 District Overview District Wide 2011 Functional : 49,763 District Wide 2011 Enrollment Projections: 47,979 (moderate projection) District Wide 2015 Enrollment Projections: 53,970 (moderate projection) Estimated Year that Enrollment will exceed existing 2011 Functional : 2011 for K-5, for 6-8 and 9-12 (depending on service/attendance areas) Some schools already in Surge Mode in (changes usage, not capacity) 10

11 and Enrollment Revised Functional Oct Enrollment Available K-5 23,275 24, % ,349 9,603 1,746 85% ,964 13, % Total 48,588 47,008 1,580 97% % of Utilized 11

12 and Projections Estimated Functional Projections (as of Jan. 2011) Estimated Available K-5 24,450* 24, % ,349 9,885 1,464 87% ,964 13, % Total 49,763 47,979 1,784 96% Estimated % of Utilized * Includes Rainier View, Viewlands, and 400 seats in the portables added in

13 and Projections Estimated Functional Projections (as of Jan. 2011) Estimated Available K-5 24,450 29,258-4, % ,349 10, % ,964 13, % Total 49,763 53,970-4, % Estimated % of Utilized 13

14 Metrics State-wide OSPI does not keep any statistics or have a recommendation on capacity calculations Unaware of any districts in the state that do capacity calculations Looking forward to our findings 14

15 Metrics Other Districts Contacted several districts Tacoma has decreased 11% since 2004 Spokane and Shoreline are continuing to decrease capacity Lake Washington is showing growth Bellevue is experiencing enrollment growth 15

16 Surge Purpose of Surge is to handle temporary increases in capacity does not increase the functional capacity of a school At full implementation of the New Student Assignment Plan schools should not stay in surge capacity beyond three years if projections indicate long term trend, need strategy to bring enrollment back in line with functional capacity 16

17 School Name Functional West Seattle Elementary Surge Schools ( ) 10/1/2010 Enrollment % Utilization Method to cope with overcrowding in % Used the stage as classroom Bryant % Used office space for Resource class John Stanford International School % Used office space for Resource class Gatewood % Shared spaces; use the stage as classroom Coe % Shared spaces (Inclusion class and PCP) Kimball % Shared spaces; use conference rooms for small classes Lowell % Added wall to divide a classroom into two Stevens % Used office space for small classes Bagley % Used RVs to accommodate staff Strategies Continue to use surge capacity Continue to use surge capacity Relocate EBOC - gain 2 classrooms Add a double portable gain 2 classrooms N/A (Number of classrooms needed will be reduced) Adjust space in portables Continue to use surge capacity Continue to use surge capacity Add capacity by replacing the RVs with a double portable 17

18 Discussion 18

19 Target Metrics Used data to test metrics (handout of 11/16/10) Not Granular Enough needed smaller ranges Because of SPS buildings and program delivery being so different, needed more conservative estimates for actionable and watch targets 19

20 Test Metrics (Nov. 2010) Severely Below Below Within Target of Functional Above Severely Above Enrollment more than 25% below functional capacity Enrollment 6% - 25% below functional capacity Enrollment within +/- 5% of functional capacity Enrollment 6% - 25% over functional capacity Enrollment more than 25% over functional capacity 20

21 (old) Sample Metrics from work session School Type 2 classes per grade Elementary 3 classes per grade Elementary 2 classes per grade K-8 3 classes per grade K-8 3 classes per grade PreK-8 Departmental Model Middle School 2-houses per grade Middle School 70-teaching station High School Physical Planning 2015 Functional Under 65% of Functional Overcrowded 110% of Functional Severely Overcrowded 125% of Functional

22 Proposed Metrics Severely Below - Action Below - Watch Within Target of Functional Above - Watch Severely Above - Action Below 70% of Functional capacity 70 90% of Functional 95% of Functional (+/- 5% or %) % of Functional Above 110% of Functional 5-Year Projections do not trend indicate change 5 Year Projections are variable 5 Year Projections are stable 5 Year Projections are variable 5-Year Projections do not trend indicate change Action: change boundaries, repurpose, evaluate adjacent schools, close Place on Watch List; evaluate Program Placement No Action Place on Watch List; evaluate Program Placement Institute surge capacity techniques Action: adjust boundaries, and feeder patterns, repurpose, evaluate adjacent schools, potential open school 22

23 Revised Sample Metrics School Type 2 classes per grade Elementary 3 classes per grade Elementary 2 classes per grade K-8 3 classes per grade K-8 3 classes per grade PreK-8 Departmental Model Middle School 2-houses per grade Middle School 70-teaching station High School Physical Planning Revised 2011 Functional Severely Below Action (70% of FC) Below Watch (85% of FC) Within Target of Functional (95% of FC) Above Watch (105% of FC) Severely Above Action (115% of FC)

24 Discussion 24

25 Boundary Changes As part of Active Management Attendance Area Boundaries will Change Develop Process in advance of changes so that expectations are managed Develop Predictable Methodology Two main reasons to Change Boundaries Timeline to change boundaries Process 25

26 Boundaries Develop Predictable Methodology NSAP Boundaries developed with a datadriven approach Functional for each building calculated using standardized modeling Data sets of projected student population, census block data, proximity, shortest routes to school and safe walk zones incorporated Annual Transportation Standards 26

27 Boundaries Develop Predictable Methodology Changes will be made utilizing similar data sets Changes are necessary since projected to actual student populations change year to year Boundary changes typically create domino changes requiring changes to multiple schools and /or feeder patterns Community feedback Grandfathering and Transportation 27

28 Boundary Changes when to change boundaries Two main reasons to Change Boundaries Situational Adjustments: Inventory of Buildings and Programs Changes Opening a new school or a school reconstructed at a larger capacity Closing School closed Repurposing change in program, grade configuration and / or option versus attendance designation; school transformation Regular Review and Adjustments: Changes due to capacity and student redistribution 28

29 Boundary Changes - Timelines Timeline to change boundaries Identify early with Watch List Schools in Management Report Trend data shows long term change in number of students Tied to Open Enrollment Boundary adjustments to be determined in time for Open Enrollment period for the following school year Grandfathering Will current students be grandfathered into existing school? Under what circumstances and for how long? 29

30 Sample Timeline for Situational Review Previous September - Decisions regarding a change in the school inventory is made school is opening, closing or repurposing Superintendent convenes Boundary Review Committee Central Staff and program managers, Principals, school staff, parents of affected schools School Opening requires attendance area to be created out of existing School Closure requires collapsing of attendance area(s) Mid - March Open Enrollment September School Opens with new boundary 30

31 Sample Timeline for Regular Adjustments and Review November Annual Management Report identifying boundary issues for future year Internal staff committee convenes December Annual Enrollment Report for current school year February staff work creates recommendations Early March Board adopts changes and recommendations (tied to open enrollment) Mid - March Open Enrollment 31

32 Boundary Changes - Process Process Could be different for Situational Adjustments and the Regular Review Adjustment Options Regular Enrollment and Management Work Executive and / or Board Determinations Standing Staff Committee Committee Based Boundary Review Committee Membership of Central Staff, School Staff, General Community Members 32

33 Boundary Criteria Common Criteria / Concerns Maintain existing Feeder Patterns Maintain predictability and middle school service areas and linked services Avoid arbitrary neighborhood / block splits Maximize walk zones and minimize transportation 33

34 Boundary Criteria Common Criteria / Concerns Grandfathering determinations upfront Use fiscal restraint to minimize operating costs Optimize use of existing facilities and minimize the use of portables Consider projections and impact to future capital construction 34

35 Discussion 35

36 Next Steps April 6 Board work session to discuss metrics, criteria for opening, repurposing, and closing schools, and the framework for the annual capacity management report Refine the metrics, criteria and methodology A work session on May 18 to continue the discussion Board introduction and adoption in June 36

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