REPORT: The Airbnb Community in San Francisco June 8, 2015 Abby Lackner, Anita Roth & Christopher Nulty 0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY According to our analysis, a housing unit in San Francisco would need to be rented more than 211 nights annually on a short term basis in order to out-compete a long-term rental Only 0.09 percent of all housing units in San Francisco are rented more than 211 days on a short-term basis via Airbnb 1 Similarly, only 1.14 percent of vacant housing units in San Francisco are rented more than 211 days on a short-term basis via Airbnb From 2005 to 2013 the number of vacant units in San Francisco has remained essentially unchanged, further underscoring that the Airbnb community has no material impact on housing availability in San Francisco 1 INTRODUCTION For thousands of San Franciscans, home sharing is an economic lifeline that makes it possible for long-time residents to pay the bills, make ends meet and stay in the city they love. As detailed in FIGURE 1, more than 80 percent of hosts in San Francisco share only the home in which they live and more than 70 percent use that money to pay their mortgage or rent. Across San Francisco, the average host makes a bit more than $1,000 each month sharing their home through Airbnb. FIGURE 1 Airbnb hosting data for San Francisco Average Host Earnings 2 [Annually] Average Nights Hosted [Annually] Hosts Using Earnings to Pay Rent/Mortgage Hosts Sharing Primary Residence $13,000 90 72% 80% Even so, home sharing opponents continue to make false accusations about our community and our impact in San Francisco. Opponents have asserted that Airbnb is removing thousands of housing units from the rental market, a statement that is both baseless and mathematically impossible. Moreover, the United States Census Bureau tracks the number of vacant units in San Francisco, and includes in that number any vacation rentals not occupied by permanent residents. Between 2005 (three years before Airbnb existed) and 2013 (the most recent data available) the number of vacant units in San Francisco is largely unchanged. If, as opponents claim, thousands of units had been removed from the market by Airbnb hosts, this would be reflected in Census data. However, as San Francisco s Chief Economist notes in his May 2015 report, in 2013, the number [of vacant units] dropped to 2005/2006 3 levels. While multiple City agencies have made their own conclusions about our community -- some more accurate than others -- we believe that a fair debate also requires a fair depiction of our community. 2 PREVIOUS ANALYSES Despite passing comprehensive home sharing regulations last year, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors will consider further restrictions to home sharing in the coming weeks. As part of the ongoing debate, the San Francisco Planning Department issued an April 2015 report that concluded: The median number of days where [short term rental] use would 4 outcompete residential use is about 257 days. More simply, a landlord would need to rent a unit more than 257 nights on a short-term basis before making more money than renting to a long-term tenant. As noted in FIGURE 1 above, the average Airbnb host in San Francisco shares their space 90 nights annually. 1 According to most recent data available through the American Community Survey, In 2013 there were an estimated 30,501 different types of vacant units in San Francisco- B25004 Vacancy Status - 2011-2013 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates 2 Average host earnings presented here includes cleaning fees. 3 Office of Economic Analysis, Amending the Regulation of Short-Term Residential Rentals: Economic Impact Report, May 18, 2015, page 6. (http://sfcontroller.org/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=6457) 4 San Francisco Planning Department, Executive Summary: Administrative Code Text Change, April 23, 2015, page 11. (http://commissions.sfplanning.org/cpcpackets/2014-001033pca.pdf)
1 The Planning Department s report went on to argue, the current level of STRs likely has a limited effect on citywide housing 5 prices and availability. Using Airbnb s own data, we found that from May 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015 only 3.2 percent of Airbnb entire unit listings in San Francisco were rented more than 257 days. As noted in FIGURE 2 this represents 0.05 6 7 percent of all housing units in San Francisco and 0.61 percent of all vacant units in the city. FIGURE 2 Planning Department framework applied to Airbnb proprietary data Airbnb entire home listings Airbnb listings housing units Units as % of vacant units City wide 3.2% 1.95% 0.05% 0.61% In May 2015, the City s Chief Economist, Ted Egan, with the Office of Economic Analysis, issued a report noting, [t] he average number of days that a host would need to engage in short-term renting, to equal the average income they could 8 receive from residential renting, ranges from 123 days a year in Russian Hill to 241 days a year in the Inner Sunset. His report goes on to argue, [t]his suggests that both the 60-day and 120-day caps in the two proposed ordinances are conservative, and likely to eliminate the risk of withdrawal of housing units from the residential market. 9 To better understand the real-life implications of the Office of Economic Analysis s findings we applied their calculated caps to our own data for two bedroom units listed on the Airbnb platform. As noted in FIGURE 3, the number of two bedroom units that exceed the Chief Economist s calculated break-even point are not material. FIGURE 3 Listings exceeding Office of Economic Analysis calculated break even Neighborhood Average Annual Income, Long Term Rental OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS [2 bedroom units] Average Daily Income, Short Term Rental Days of Short Term Rental to Equal Long Term Rental Income AIRBNB DATA [2 bedroom units] Units Exceeding Office of Economic Analysis. Calculated Cap Bernal Heights $33,555 $155 217 6 Castro/Upper Market (+Duboce Triangle) $40,921 $189 217 4 Haight Ashbury (+ Cole Valley) $37,347 $188 200 1 Inner Richmond $32,200 $166 194 -- Outer Richmond $28,568 $144 198 -- Richmond District (Inner /Outer Averaged) -- -- 196 6 Inner Sunset $33,555 $140 241 1 Marina (+ Cow Hollow) $45,902 $243 189 6 Mission $41,854 $178 235 5 Nob Hill $41,734 $205 204 1 Noe Valley $38,699 $194 200 3 North Beach (+ Fisherman's Wharf, Telegraph Hill) $43,185 $219 198 5 Pacific Heights $49,111 $230 214 2 5 San Francisco Planning Department, Executive Summary: Administrative Code Text Change, April 23, 2015, page 15. 6 B25001 Housing Units - 2011-2013 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates 7 Vacant units are all units identified as vacant as of 2013, the most recently available U.S. Census data. Vacant units include units that are vacant and for rent, rented but not occupied, vacant and for sale, sold but not occupied, units that are used for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, units reserved for migrant workers, and units that other otherwise vacant. (B25004 Vacancy Status - 2011-2013 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates) 8 Office of Economic Analysis, Amending the Regulation of Short-Term Residential Rentals: Economic Impact Report, May 18, 2015, page 13. 9 ibid.
2 Potrero Hill (+ Dogpatch) $41,148 $217 190 6 Russian Hill $45,034 $366 123 3 SOMA (+ Mission Bay, South Beach) $45,767 $248 185 9 Western Addition, Hayes Valley & Lower Haight (+ Alamo Square, Fillmore District, Japantown, NOPA) $37,725 $294 129 16 3 AIRBNB COMMUNITY ANALYSIS Reports from the Planning Department and the Office of Economic Analysis provide a valuable framework to understand the impact of the Airbnb community on housing in San Francisco. However, neither report was comprehensive enough to fully understand the impact of our community in San Francisco. Our team of data scientists analyzed Airbnb proprietary data, publicly available census and community survey data, as well as third-party data to build a framework that includes the following inputs: Long Term Rental Income: Using data from Rent Jungle, we built a snapshot of the market in San Francisco, both holistically and by unit type (studio, one bedroom, etc.). While previous reports used only data from Craigslist and/or evaluated only a specific unit type, we believe that our approach is more comprehensive and exhaustive. Short Term Rental Income: To calculate this figure, we looked at the average host income for all entire apartment listings that were booked from May 1, 2014 through April 30, 2015. The nightly cost considers additional fees collected by the host, including extra person fees, but excludes host and guest fees as well as cleaning fees, as this money is often passed on to a third party. This approach accounts for the fact that not all properties listed on the platform are rented equally, and that less expensive units are often booked more frequently. Discounts/Adjustments: The Office of Economic Analysis report made a number of assumptions related to the cost of being a short-term host versus a long-term landlord. However, it is impossible to know how one host or landlord spends money on upkeep, utilities, or otherwise. For the purposes of accuracy and transparency we removed these discounts and adjustments from our calculations. According to our analysis in FIGURE 4, at market rent, the typical unit of housing in San Francisco would need to be rented more than 211 nights annually on a short-term basis in order to outcompete a long-term rental. More importantly, the quantity of Airbnb listings exceeding this cap represents just 1.14 percent of all vacant units in San Francisco and just 0.09 percent of all housing units in San Francisco. FIGURE 4 Airbnb calculated break even by unit type Days to Break Even booked Airbnb listings in cohort housing units 10 vacant units Entire City, All Bedrooms 211 6.1% 0.09% 1.14% 0 bedroom -- 5.5% 0.01% 0.14% 1 bedroom -- 7.1% 0.05% 0.64% 2+ bedrooms -- 4.9% 0.03% 0.35% According to our analysis in FIGURE 5, the break even point across neighborhoods varies from 198 nights in SOMA to 295 nights in the Mission. As noted earlier in this study, the average host in San Francisco shares their space 90 nights per year and makes a little more than $13,000 doing so, further debunking the myth that our community is removing thousands of units from the housing market as home sharing opponents have falsely stated time and again. FIGURE 5 Airbnb calculated break even by neighborhood 10 See definition of Vacant units above.
3 Neighborhood Annual Rent 11 [Rent Jungle] Avg. Nightly Host Earnings [Cleaning Fees Removed] Days of STR to Equal Long Term Rental Income Entire City, All Bedrooms $43,032 $204 211 Bernal Heights $47,868 $165 290 Castro/Upper Market (+Duboce Triangle) $52,596 $209 252 Haight Ashbury (+ Cole Valley) $49,680 $242 205 Inner Richmond $43,056 -- -- Outer Richmond $35,364 -- -- Richmond District (Averaged) $39,210 $171 229 Inner Sunset $41,904 $170 246 Marina (+ Cow Hollow) $54,960 $227 242 Mission $49,548 $168 295 Nob Hill $49,692 $216 230 Noe Valley $51,060 $213 240 North Beach (+ Fisherman's Wharf, Telegraph Hill) $55,116 $238 232 Pacific Heights $52,548 $258 204 Potrero Hill (+ Dogpatch) $52,464 $195 269 Russian Hill $57,324 $221 259 SOMA (+ Mission Bay, South Beach) $45,516 $230 198 Western Addition (+ Alamo Square, Fillmore District, Hayes Valley, Japantown, Lower Haight, NOPA) $47,772 $203 235 4 CONCLUSION Time and again, home sharing opponents have attempted to misuse data to mislead San Franciscans about an important issue that predated Airbnb s existence. However, according to our own analysis, echoed by both the San Francisco Office of Economic Analysis and the San Francisco Planning Department, a unit would need to be booked 211 nights per year -- more than double the number of nights the average hosts is currently sharing their space -- in order to outcompete a long-term rental. As we noted in our analysis, entire unit listings currently booked more than 211 nights per year represent a non-material portion of the current vacant housing stock. Understanding the impacts of home sharing is, undoubtedly, challenging. The comprehensive profile outlined in this report underscores what we have always known: as San Francisco has become more and more expensive, home sharing has been the one thing making it possible for thousands of middle class families to stay in the city they love. 5 METHODOLOGY Average nightly earnings is calculated as total host earnings for nights associated with rentals of fewer than 30 nights divided by the number of nights rented during the 12 month period cited. The nightly earnings includes the listing price plus the cost of any additional guests and excludes host and guest fees, taxes and cleaning fees. The framework is meant to reflect the total host revenue, which is comparable to rent collected by landlords. 11 Rent Jungle data for San Francisco based on most recent available March 2015 data by apartment type and by neighborhood. Data accessed May 20, 2015. ( http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-san-francisco-rent-trends )
4 Some listings were activated and/or deactivated over the course of the year. While 9,592 listings hosted guests over year, only a fraction of those were active at any given point. This variation between total listings over the course of a year and listings at any given time period reflects how hosts often use Airbnb for limited periods of time rather than on an ongoing, year-round basis. Unless otherwise noted, all data presented in this memo is based on Airbnb bookings and listings data and Airbnb surveys of hosts and guests in San Francisco. 6 APPENDIX FIGURE 6 Active Listings by Date Total Active Listings [May 1, 2014 - April 30, 2015] Active Listings [April 30, 2015] Entire Unit Listings 5,725 2,876 All Listings 9,692 4,710 FIGURE 7 Breakdown of San Francisco Airbnb Properties by Listing Type % Listings in San Francisco [May 1, 2014 - April 30, 2015] Entire Unit 59% Private Room 36% Shared Space 5%