Our medium-term outlook bp.com/investors
I am very confident we will once again adapt as we take on the challenges of today s world. Bob Dudley Group Chief Executive December 2015 For more information bp.com/investors Please be aware of the cautionary statement on the back page of this document. For further information, please see the full transcript of BP s investor presentation from the 27th October 2015.
A new price environment The environment reinforces the need for a business model that can withstand a longer period of lower oil prices Brent Crude Oil (Dated Brent $/bbl) 130 120 110 100 90 Forward strip June 2015 80 70 60 50 40 Forward strip February 2015 Forward strip October 2015 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 In late-2014 we moved decisively to reset BP for what we expected could be a sustained period of low oil prices. Since then, the forward price strip for Brent oil has progressively moved towards a flatter trend, out towards the end of the decade. At BP, we not only believe we have the right business model to withstand a longer period of lower oil prices, but are also well positioned in our industry to take advantage of the opportunity this new environment brings. Our medium-term outlook 1
Our proposition for value growth A clear set of enduring principles that drive our business Contribution to 2020 pre-tax operating cash flow (1) Upstream Pre-FID (2) Post-FID major project (2) Existing assets Downstream Gas value chains Deepwater oil Giant oil fields Other Azerbaijan Angola North Sea Gulf of Mexico Relentless focus on safety and reliability Above all, good business starts will a relentless focus on safe and reliable operations. This is a job that is never complete but we are delivering an increasingly safe, reliable and efficient set of assets. We believe that safety and reliability go hand-in-hand with efficiency and financial performance improve one and you improve the other. As we continue to transform our business in the current environment, we expect to drive greater efficiency into how we operate, while keeping that relentless focus on safety. A balanced portfolio Since 2010, we have divested almost $75 billion of assets, including our interest in TNK-BP. We now have a stronger, refocused, rebalanced portfolio. It is balanced between different geographies, different resource types, different parts of the value chain and different life cycles. Getting this balance right provides resilience and longevity. Marketing Growth markets Resilience in the current environment also comes from being an integrated business, with global Upstream and Downstream operations and well established trading capability. Manufacturing (1) Based on BP planning assumptions (2) Final Investment Decision Mature markets Looking forward, our Upstream major project portfolio includes well defined sources of future production growth. Over half our production from new major projects out to 2020 is already under construction and we have a deep portfolio of over 50 options to move through to project sanction. In the Downstream, we now have a very focused portfolio of manufacturing assets with strong competitive advantages and marketing businesses that are differentiated from the competition. 2 Our medium-term outlook
Value over volume Divestments Acquisitions Portfolio of opportunities RETURNS Organic capital expenditure Upstream Downstream /other Total Group 2014 2015 to 2017 $19.0bn $3.9bn $22.9bn RISK $15bn to $16bn $2bn to $3bn $17bn to $19bn Whilst we are confident in the balance and make-up of our portfolio as we see it today, we still keep it constantly under review, actively managing it for value over volume. We will look to divest assets that no longer fit with our strategy and deepen our involvement in assets which add the most value. More broadly, this process includes looking at looking at innovative ways to work our portfolio harder, as we have done in the US Lower 48. Capital and cost discipline We drive returns through disciplined investment into the best projects. This means getting the right balance of capital between our business segments and pacing our investment in each business to capture the greatest value through the cycle. Right now in the Upstream this means managing the timing of investments, looking in particular to ensure we are capturing the maximum benefits of industry deflation, while at the same time preserving our future growth objectives. Meanwhile, we are rapidly making significant structural changes to our cost base. And we are adding in organisational controls to ensure these are sustainable for the future. Growing sustainable free cash flow in the long term This all works towards the most important of our enduring principles that of growing sustainable free cash flow and shareholder distributions for the long term. We have set out a medium-term financial frame to 2017, which underpins our commitment to sustaining our dividend while we rebalance sources and uses of cash in the current environment. Our medium-term outlook 3
A medium-term financial frame Our plan out to 2017 underpins our commitment to sustaining our dividend Organic free cash flow growth By 2017 we expect to be working off a reset and structurally more efficient platform, both Upstream and Downstream, with sources and uses of cash for the Group balancing organically at oil prices of around $60 per barrel. In this environment, and based on our planning assumptions, we would expect free cash flow for the Group to grow from 2018, restoring our capacity to grow distributions. Any recovery in the price environment would offer further upside as illustrated on the chart. Equally, in the event that oil prices are below this level, more deflationary correction will be required than currently built into our plans. Organic free cash flow per share (1) (US cents per share) 60 50 40 30 20 $60/bbl $70/bbl Brent price (real) Current dividend per share (1) Based on: $3 mmbtu Henry Hub gas (real) and $15/bbl Refining Marker Margin Excludes Deepwater Horizon (DWH) payments, includes 100% of dividend Organic free cashflow = Operating cash flow excluding DWH payments less organic capex 10 0 2017 2020 Resetting cash costs We continue to make strong progress on right-sizing the Group s cash cost base for our smaller footprint since the Deepwater Horizon accident while seeing the benefit of investments we made in improving asset integrity. The actions we continue to take are wide-ranging across both Upstream and Downstream and we remain very focused on further simplification within our functional and corporate activities. We expect total controllable Group cash costs to reduce by over $6 billion by 2017, compared to 2014, with nearly half of this already captured. This rapid progress in part builds on initiatives started in 2013 and where we now benefit from having made a head-start. Non-operating restructuring charges are now expected to approach $2.5 billion in total by the end of 2016. Group cash costs ($ billion) > $6bn 2010 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 4 Our medium-term outlook
Capital framework ($ billion) 25 Targeted divestments ($ billion) 12 Gearing (%) 40 20 15 8 4 30 20 10 10 2011 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Capital Discipline We now expect organic capital expenditure to be the range of $17-19 billion through to 2017. As we lock in deflation over the next few years, this structurally lower capital frame still supports a level of activity we consider optimal to grow value for shareholders. 0 2014-15 2016 2017+ Divestments Having announced almost $75 billion of divestments since 2010 including the sale of our interest in TNK-BP we are approaching completion of our $10 billion divestment programme around the end of 2015. Looking ahead, we see divestments of around $3-5 billion in 2016 and $2-3 billion thereafter. 0 2002 2010 2017 Gearing We will continue to manage gearing with some flexibility around the 20% level. This compares to the 10-20% target band we established in 2010 to allow greater flexibility for uncertainties, of which the Deepwater Horizon was the most significant. Our medium-term outlook 5
Forward-looking statements - cautionary statement This document contains forward-looking statements that is, statements related to future, not past events with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of BP and certain of the expectations, intentions, plans and objectives of BP with respect to these items, in particular statements regarding future global energy trends and oil prices; expectations regarding BP s plans for its financial frame and the future growth of sustainable free cash flow and shareholder distributions over the long-term; plans and expectations regarding the Upstream major project portfolio and future production growth; expectations regarding the level of capital expenditure to 2017; plans and expectations regarding deepened involvement in projects as well as divestments, including divestments in 2015, 2016 and thereafter; plans and expectations regarding restructuring charges and cash cost; BP s ability to sustain its dividend and expected gearing levels; plans and expectations regarding balancing sources and uses of cash; plans to capture benefits of industry deflation; and expectations regarding future organic growth and growth in free cash flow from 2018. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of BP. Actual results may differ from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors including changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; the timing, quantum and nature of divestments; the receipt of relevant third-party and/or regulatory approvals; future levels of industry product supply; demand and pricing; OPEC quota restrictions; PSA effects; operational problems; regulatory or legal actions; economic and financial conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology; the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners and others; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism, cyber-attacks or sabotage; and other factors discussed under Principle risks and uncertainties in the results announcement for the period ended 30 June 2015 and Risk factors in our Annual Report and Form 20-F 2014. Reconciliations to GAAP This presentation also contains financial information which is not presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). A quantitative reconciliation of this information to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP can be found on our website at www.bp.com. Tables and projections in this presentation are BP projections unless otherwise stated. December 2015 Contact details You can email the Investor Relations team at ir@bp.com You can also telephone + 44 (0) 207496 4000 or write to: Investor Relations BP p.l.c. 1 St James s Square, London SW1Y 4PD, UK.