Natural Gas in Turkey Today and Tomorrow Dr. Matthias Keuchel General Manager, Enerjisa Natural Gas Co. EBC WORKING COMMITTEE ENERGY, Athens, 30 May 2014
ENERJISA AT A GLANCE 2
ENERJISA - Largest Private Energy Player In Turkey 50 % 50 % Power Generation Natural Gas Wholesale Power Wholesale& Trading Power Distribution Power Sales 2560 MW in operation ~1.7 GW Under Construction Sales and wholesale to own power plants and industrial customers Trade and optimization 3 distribution regions 9 million customer base Regulated and un-regulated sales 7500 MW after 2020 3
Enerjisa Footprint In Turkey
TURKISH GAS MARKET TODAY 5
Current Supply Sources to Turkey With Only Small Idle Capacities Turkey has access to major supply sources through 4 import pipelines and 2 LNG regasification terminals. WEST LINE - BOTAŞ 4 bcm 2021 - Private-I 4 bcm 2021 - Private-II 6 bcm 2043 BLUE STREAM - BOTAŞ 16 bcm 2028 AZERBAIJAN - BOTAŞ 5.4 bcm 2022 - SOCAR* 1.2 bcm 2022 ALGERIA - BOTAŞ 4 bcm 2014 NIGERIA -BOTAŞ 1.2 bcm 2021 LNG (Spot ) IRAN - BOTAŞ 10 bcm 2026 *Note: 1.2 bcm is a volume transfer from Azeri BOTAŞ contract to Socar.
Demand Has Been Rising Progressively 10% CAGR between 2002 2012 mcm 7 Long term import contracts have become insufficient to meet winter demand bcm Turkish Natural Gas Demand 2002-2013 LTC Supply 2013 17 21 23 27 31 36 37 35 38 44 45 45 48 3 2 12 7 6 4 5 7 9 3 4 14 14 14 15 8 9 10 10 8 7 8 10 18 18 20 20 11 14 13 Residential 12 10 11 Industry 21 22 21 Power 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 95% Supply Contracts *All Values are in standard cubic meters at 9155 kcal/m3 **2013 estimated figures 1 4 5 9 13 15 Nigeria Algeria Azerbaijan Iran West Line Blue Stream Peak Daily Demand vs Total Daily Send Out Capacity 220 215 210 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 215 193 Daily Peak 2012Capacity Demand Supply problems were already faced during peak demand periods due to insufficient supply and infrastructure capacites Source: EMRA, Turkey
Natural Gas Market Players In Import 2014 Market Share in Import Contracts BOTAS; 78% Private 22% Shell; 0,5% Avrasya; 1,0% Kibar; 2,0% BatıHattı; 2,0% Socar; 2,0% Akfel; 4,0% Enerco; 5,0% BGC; 5,0% 2014 1st Release 4 bcm 2nd Release 6 bcm Enerco 2.5 bcm BGC 0.75 bcm Avrasya 0.5 bcm Shell 0.25 bcm Akfel 2.25 bcm BGC 1.75 bcm Batı Hattı 1.0 bcm Kibar 1.0 bcm *Note: Socar Turkey which receives 1.2 bcm from BOTAŞ **1st Release realized in 2008 and 2nd release realized in 2013 8
Cross Subsidization of BOTAŞ 9 BOTAŞ is expected to finalize the year with a loss of ~3.5 billion $ because of cross subsidization In 2013 loss was ~900 million $ and in 2012 ~400 million $ Independent power producers buy natural gas from BOTAŞ at prices generally half those paid in BOOs and BOTs Assumed for 2014; avg BOTAŞ cost 435 $/000Sm3 industrial customer price 359 $/000Sm3 Household price 390 $/000Sm3 BO/BOT price 520 $/000Sm3 (source: Oxford Energy)
Hizmete 10 Ozel TURKISH GAS MARKET TOMORROW
bcm Turkish Natural Gas Demand and Supply Developments LNG, Azeri SD Phase II, Iraqi, Black Sea and Israeli volumes will compete to fill the gap between demand and supply after 2019 90 80 70 60 50 40 Contract totals if GazProm and Sonatrach contracts extended Demand 57.9 bcm 51.9 bcm 30 20 Contract totals if Shah Deniz I is extended. 6bcm Shah Deniz II volume reflected as of 2019 10 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 Gazprom W1 Gazprom W2 Gazprom Blue Stream NIGEC AGSC Sonatrach Nigerian LNG TR Demand Note: Values are in 9000 kcal/m3 Source: IHS CERA, 2013 11
Hizmete 12 Ozel Turkey s Excellent Geogrophical Location on Gas Map Turkey is surrounded by vast natural gas reserves.....but becoming a real gas hub will require more: there is a stoney way to first become a gas corridor and then develop to a gas hub Azerbaijan Reserves : 0.9 tcm (Total share : ~0.5%) Consumption : 8.5 bcm Turkey is surrounded by 63% of World NG Reserves Russia Reserves : 32.9 tcm (Total share : ~17%) Consumption : 416 bcm Turkmenistan Reserves : 17.5 tcm (Total share : ~9.3%) Consumption : 23.3 bcm Iran Reserves : 33.6 tcm (Total share : ~18%) Consumption : 156.1 bcm Iraq Reserves : 3.6 tcm (Total share : ~1.9%) Consumption : - bcm Algeria Reserves : 4.5 tcm (Total share : ~2.4%) Consumption : 30.9 bcm Israel Reserves : 0.9 tcm (Total share : ~0.5%) Consumption : 2.6 bcm Qatar Reserves : 25.1 tcm (Total share : ~13.4%) Consumption : 26.2 bcm Source: BP Statistical Report 2013
Hizmete 13 Ozel TANAP/TAP Opening up the Southern Gas Corridor TANAP and TAP supports the EU s initiative to enhance Europe s energy security by connecting to new sources of natural gas in the Caspian Sea TAP TANAP Length 870 km 1800 km Route GR-ALB-IT TR/GEO border to TR/GR border Capacity 10 bcm/a 16 bcm/a Operation 2019 2018 II.Phase 20 bcm/a 23 bcm/a (2023) TANAP and TAP will be the first pipeline to open the Southern Gas Corridor TAP Selection Pipeline Construction 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q4 2013 Resolution to Construct Q4 2013 Shah Deniz II FID End of 2014 Final Contract Award Mid 2018 TANAP starts operation Mid 2019 TAP starts operation
New Significant Supply Sources Earliest by 2017, Realistically Later Hizmete 14 Ozel IMPORT PROJECT AGREEMENT DATE START YEAR Azerbaijan 2014-2019 2019 VOL. 6 + 10 bcmpa FURTHER STEPS 6 bcmpa reserved for BOTAŞ Transit volume delivery to Turkey may be an option Volumes from Azerbaijan beyond Shah Deniz II project may arrive Iraqi Gas 2014-2017 2017? 3 to 10 bcmpa New volumes may arrive starting with 3 bcmpa and ramping up to 10 bcmpa. Israeli Gas 2015-2019 2019 7 to 10 bcmpa 7 to 10 bcmpa pipe gas expected only in 2019. Black Sea (Romanian) Gas 2015-2016 2019 6 bcmpa Target markets of these volumes are not clear yet. Russia Blue Stream - - 3 bcmpa Upgrading of infrastructure required LNG - - TBC BOTAŞ in talks with other LNG suppliers (i.e. Norway, Qatar)
Liberalising Turkish Natural Gas Market is Indispensable Hizmete 15 Ozel Current Framework Subsidized tariffs are set by the government, no market fundamentals/cost reflectiveness BOTAŞ controls 80% of wholesale volumes and import points Insufficient infrastructure (network and storages) Priority given to BOTAŞ Major Requirements Gas costs to be reflected on prices. Complete abolishment of regulated tariffs No restrictions for gas imports for private players independent of the source Attractive and reliable legal/regulatory framework to incentivize necessary infrastructure investments Non discriminatory access to infrastructure Natural Gas Law Amendment: When and How?
Key Messages Turkish Gas Market Fundamentals Market has finally proved to be tight Due to its excellent geographical location new supplies will be available to Turkey mid to long term. Government involvement in gas business stays high Enerjisa s Long-Term Market View Turkish gas market will remain tight in the short to medium term due to significant demand growth and limited new supplies Import prices will be oil-based and convert to hub prices only after 2023 Importers of gas are the winners in this market environment Enerjisa s GasStrategy Enerjisa will secure gas for its gas-fired power plants and develop new gas supplies in a growing gas market Enerjisa is targeting a significant market share in Turkish gas market Hizmete 16 Ozel