EDUCATION POLICIES AND STRATEGIES

EDUCATION POLICIES AND STRATEGIES Naional Educaion Secor Developmen Plan: A resul-based planning handbook 13

Educaion Policies and Sraegies 13

Educaion Policies and Sraegies 13 Naional Educaion Secor Developmen Plan: A resul-based planning handbook Secion for Educaion Suppor Sraegies Division for Educaion Sraegies and Capaciy Building U N E S C O

Auhor: Gwang-Chol Chang, Programme Specialis a UNESCO Division for Educaion Sraegies and Capaciy Building. The presen paper can be freely reproduced or cied, in par or enirely, wih he appropriae acknowledgemen. The auhor is responsible for he choice and presenaion of he facs conained in his book and for he opinions expressed herein, which are no necessarily hose of UNESCO and do no commi he Organizaion. Published in 2006 by he Unied Naions Educaional, Scienific and Culural Organizaion 7, place de Fonenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP (France) UNESCO (ED-2008/WS/37)

Preface This is he hireenh volume in he series Educaion Policies and Sraegies launched in 2001 by UNESCO s former Division of Educaional Policies and Sraegies. Deliberaely eschewing an excessive concern wih heory, i seeks above all o be a collecion of good pracices. Through he choice of hemes addressed, UNESCO aims o share is experience no only wih educaion planners, bu more broadly wih all hose ineresed in he elaboraion and implemenaion of educaion policies and sraegies. Devoed o he subjec of resul-based planning in educaion, his issue is addressed o managemen specialiss in naional adminisraions, policy-makers and educaion minisry officials concerned wih improving heir knowledge of he mehods and ools used in educaional planning and managemen. This handbook illusraes he way educaional planning can be improved by means of he Logical Framework Approach. I describes he differen sages of sraegic planning in educaion (such as: sysem analysis, policy design, acion planning, monioring and evaluaion), as well as he way he logical links can be assured across hese sages in an effor o promoe a resul-based educaion planning and managemen. A few oher planning mehods and echniques, such as simulaion modelling, resource projecions, ec. are also relaed in his documen. This paper is he firs aemp o applying he Logical Framework Approach o educaion in a secor-wide planning conex. I is hoped ha his handbook will assis Member Saes in srenghening heir capaciy in resul-based educaion planning, using heir resources more effecively and voicing heir sraegic prioriies for educaional developmen. I is also hoped ha programme officers a various eniies of UNESCO and oher developmen agencies will find useful help in improving heir planning skills and echniques in suppor of naional educaion planning and managemen. Mohamed Radi Direcor, a.i.; Division for Educaion Sraegies and Capaciy Building v

Conens PREFACE...v INTRODUCTION...1 CHAPTER I. THE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT CYCLE...5 1.1. An overview...5 1.2. The basic srucure of plan or programme documens...8 CHAPTER II. SECTOR ANALYSIS... 11 2.1. Diagnosic aspecs o be analyzed... 11 2.2. Secor analysis hrough he LFA...18 2.2.1. Logical Framework Approach: An overview...18 2.2.2. Siuaion analysis...21 2.2.3. Sakeholder analysis...27 CHAPTER III. POLICY OBJECTIVES...31 3.1. Educaion policy aspecs...31 3.1.1. Policy dialogue...31 3.1.2. Policy aspecs o be addressed...31 3.2. Formulaion of policy objecives hrough he LFA...33 3.2.1. Definiions and underlying principles of Logframe...33 3.2.2. Analysis of objecives...35 3.2.3. Analysis of alernaive sraegies...37 CHAPTER IV. PROGRAMME OF ACTION...39 4.1. Acion planning hrough he LFA...39 4.1.1. Preliminary remarks...39 4.1.2. Designing acions and heir aribues wih he Logframe Marix...40 4.1.3. Developing an acion plan hrough nesing of Logframes...45 4.2. Planning for monioring, review and evaluaion...48 4.2.1. Performance indicaors...51 4.2.2. Three classificaions of evaluaion...54 4.2.3. Objecs of monioring and evaluaion...57 CHAPTER V. ESTIMATION OF COSTS...59 5.1. Coss/resources a he aciviy level...59 5.2. Budgeing hrough simulaion echniques...62 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL REFERENCES...64 ANNEXES...65 Annex 1. Main aspecs o be analyzed for a diagnosis of he educaion secor...65 Annex 2. Sakeholders: differen perspecives...95 Annex 3. Simulaion in policy formulaion and acion planning...99 Annex 4. The reconsruced cohor mehod...105 vii

Inroducion Planning is a process whereby a direcion is se forh and hen he ways and means for following ha direcion are specified. There are many forms of planning wih several ypes of aciviies involved in his process. A plan is he produc of he planning process and can be defined as a se of decisions abou wha o do, why, and how o do i. A plan of acion is a living reference framework for acion. This implies ha: 4 As a reference of acion, he plan is he resul of consensus building process, o be agreed upon by all hose working in he fields covered as well as he oher sakeholders conribuing o is implemenaion; 4 As an indicaive, living framework, i is designed in such a way as o allow for adjusmens in ligh of new developmens during implemenaion; 4 As a working ool, i includes no only policy and expendiure frameworks, bu also he hierarchy of objecives, key acions and insiuional arrangemens for implemenaion, monioring and evaluaion. More and more, educaion managers are compelled o hink and plan sraegically, due o some following reasons: 4 Firs, one may wish o plan and carry ou all he aciviies deemed needed, bu wihou achieving he ulimae goals. 4 Furhermore, more resources do no necessarily sand for he bes resuls. The way one uses hese resources can lead o a differen level of benefis. 4 Thirdly, i has become more and more difficul o plan everyhing one would wish o do. One ough o make choices, ofen ough ones, hrough a balanced decision-making, rade-offs across he sysem and consensus building process. These lead o espouse sraegic planning. A sraegic plan in he educaion secor is he physical produc of he sraegic planning process and embodies he guiding orienaions on how o run an educaion sysem wihin a larger naional developmen perspecive, which is evolving by naure and ofen involves consrains. 1

A resul-based planning handbook The erm sraegy 1 was firs used in he miliary conex. Generals had he asks of having a wider view of all facors, for he longer erm purpose of evenually ensuring he securiy of heir counry. In he early 1960s, his erm was proposed o be used ouside he miliary conex, firs in business and hen in he social secors as well. Educaion is no excepion. Like any oher sysems, educaion has inpus, processes, oupus and oucomes: 4 Inpus o he educaion sysem include resources such as eachers, buildings, equipmen, books, ec. 4 These inpus go hrough a process (hroughpu) whereby hey are mixed (inpu mix), combined and/or moved along o achieve resuls. 4 Educaional oupus are angible resuls produced by processes in he sysem, such as enrolmens, graduaes and learning achievemens. 4 Anoher kind of resul, which can be called oucome, is he benefis for he sudens, heir families and/or he sociey as well. As a way of sraegic managemen, educaion sysems should be analyzed and hough ou in erms of relevance, efficiency, effeciveness, impac and susainabiliy: for example, one will wonder wheher he inpus o he educaion sysem are relevan for addressing he needs, o wha exen he processes (uilizaion of resources) are efficienly driven and how well he anicipaed oupus are effecively produced. Oucomes should be weighed in erms of heir impac and susainabiliy. Long range v. operaional v. sraegic planning In he pas, planners usually referred o he erm long-range planning. More recenly, hey use he erm sraegic planning. Alhough many sill use hese erms inerchangeably, sraegic planning and long-range planning differ. Long-range planning is generally considered o mean he developmen of a plan aimed a achieving a policy or se of policies over a period of several years, wih he assumpion ha he projecion of (or exrapolaion from) he pas and curren siuaion is sufficien o ensure he implemenaion of he fuure aciviies. In oher words, long-range planning assumes ha he environmen is sable, while sraegic planning assumes ha a sysem mus be responsive o a dynamic and changing environmen. The erm sraegic planning is mean o capure sraegic (comprehensive, holisic, houghful or fundamenal) naure of his ype of planning. 1 From Greek sraegia generalship, from sraegos general, from sraos army + agein o lead. According o Merriam- Webser Online Dicionary, 10h Ediion, sraegy means he science and ar of miliary command exercised o mee he enemy in comba under advanageous condiions. 2

Inroducion Wih regard o operaional and sraegic planning, a narrow definiion would be ha sraegic planning is done wih involvemen of high levels of managemen, while operaional planning is done a lower levels. However, his documen proposes o give i a wider definiion as shown in he following able. Operaional planning Sraegic planning Focus Rouine aciviies Achieving goals Purpose Achieving he bes use of available resources Planning he bes courses of acion Rewards Efficiency, sabiliy Effeciveness, impac Informaion Presen siuaion Fuure opporuniies Organizaion Bureaucraic, sable Enrepreneurial, flexible Problem solving Relies on pas experience Finds new ways and alernaives Risks Low High This maerial illusraes he way he Logical Framework Approach can be used in sraegic educaional planning and in he design of specific projec documens for he implemenaion of he naional educaion developmen plans. I is mean o be a pracical guide on resul-based, sraegic and acion planning wih wo resricions. Firs, i deals wih he planning issues of educaion sysems a he macro level (naional, or sae/ provincial level, especially in he case of federal sysems), raher han a he micro level (e.g. insiuions). Second, i addresses planning and managemen issues a upsream sages, raher han a he acual implemenaion phase. The erm upsream is mean o designae he sage of he developmen of naional educaion policies, programmes and/or projecs, because i comes before he implemenaion of he programmes, or downsream phase. Many managemen aspecs are no he objec of his guide insofar as hey concern downsream sages. The handbook presens firs a synopic view of he differen sages of he sraegic managemen cycle in he educaion secor (Chaper I). Subsequen chapers describe he differen sages of sraegic and acion planning by means of he Logical Framework Approach: sysem analysis (Chaper II), policy design (Chaper III) and acion programming (Chaper IV). Resource cosing echniques, especially hrough simulaion modelling, are also explained (Chaper V). 3

A resul-based planning handbook In sum, readers of his handbook are kindly reminded ha: 4 This documen does no inend o be exhausive and exclusive. I explains he main feaures of he analyical and planning echniques as proposed by he Logical Framework Approach, bu does no give exensive deails of his mehod. 4 I focuses on he logical sequencing in he design of a naional educaion secor developmen plan or a projec, bu gives lile deails on he acual aspecs of daa and policy analysis, which mehodology can be found in he maerials lised in he bibliographical references of his handbook; 4 Depending on heir level and ineres, readers can go sraigh o he chapers or secions of heir choice in his handbook. 4

Chaper I. The sraegic managemen cycle 1.1. An overview There are a variey of erminologies used in sraegic managemen and a variey of approaches o carry i ou. One canno say ha here is a single perfec way o conduc sraegic planning. Each insiuion has is own paricular inerpreaion of he approaches and aciviies in sraegic managemen. However, wha is generic o sraegic managemen are cerain ypical sages involving similar aciviies carried ou in a similar sequence. Any managemen involves four basic sages: analysis, planning, implemenaion and evaluaion. Diagram 1: The sraegic managemen cycle Evaluaion Monioring & Review Feedback Implemenaion The Sraegic Managemen Cycle Analysis Operaionaisaion Appraisal Planning In a more sophisicaed way, we can say ha sraegic managemen is a coninuum of successive sages such as: criical analysis of a sysem, policy formulaion and appraisal, acion planning, managemen and monioring, review and evaluaion. Experience and lessons learn from implemenaion, monioring and evaluaion provide feedback for adjusing he curren programme or for he nex cycle of policy formulaion and acion planning. 5

A resul-based planning handbook Diagram 1 oulines his cyclical paern of sraegic managemen: 4 Any managemen cycle begins wih analysis, whereby he curren siuaion of a sysem and he criical issues peraining o is saus and funcioning are firs analysed. 4 Findings and remedial opions are hen formulaed and appraised, hus providing policy orienaions. 4 When he sysem is analysed and he fuure direcions are raced, one can proceed wih planning he necessary acions o correc or improve he siuaion. A plan can be long range (6 o 10 years), medium erm (3 o 5 years) or shor erm (1 o 2 years). 4 Operaionalizaion consiss of aking he necessary reform and insiuional measures ha are conducive o he smooh implemenaion of plans or programmes and before he acual execuion sars, including: 4 Designing specific developmen projecs or programmes and/or mobilizing resources required o implemen he planned acions and aciviies. 4 Planning and managemen are subjec o feedback-providing operaions, i.e. monioring, review and evaluaion. In he educaion secor, he managemen operaions relaed o upsream, planning work consis of: (i) sysem analysis; (ii) policy formulaion; (iii) acion planning. Secor analysis: This diagnosic sage consiss of conducing daa collecion on and criical analysis of he aspecs relaing o (and surrounding) he educaion secor. Planners carefully review how he sysem funcions (inernal dynamics) and examine various conexual, deermining facors (he environmen of which educaion is a par), e.g. macro-economic and socio-demographic siuaions and developmens. They look ino he above aspecs from he perspecive of he sysem s srenghs, weaknesses, opporuniies and hreas (beer known as he SWOT analysis) regarding educaional developmen. This will help o idenify he criical issues, o idenify he challenges and o consruc remedial acions. Some call his phase of educaion secor analysis (ESA) he diagnosic work. Secor review, sysem analysis, ec. are also used. Noe: Policy dialogue wih sakeholders should conribue o a common undersanding of he problems and issues. Lack of reliable informaion and relevan analysis ofen lead o misundersanding and confusion among sakeholders. A ool/mechanism should be se up in order o provide relevan daa and informaion for discussions, which will allow people o sing on he same shee of music. Tailoring daa appropriaely o he differen requiremens of differen sakeholders is ofen ignored, o he peril of such imporan consulaion. 6

I. The sraegic managemen cycle Policy and sraegy formulaion: Careful (and criical) analysis of he educaional sysem underaken during he secor analysis leads o quesions abou wha he educaion secor mus do in order o address he major issues, challenges and opporuniies. These quesions include wha overall resuls (sraegic goals) he sysem should achieve and he overall mehods (or sraegies) o implemen policies designed o bring abou such objecives. This sage of sraegic planning is called policy formulaion. Noe: Paricipaory policy formulaion requires no only he paricipaion of sakeholders in he design of policies and sraegies bu also he availabiliy of considerable informaion and a number of policy opions/alernaives ha can allow for evidence-based policy dialogue and consensus building. Noe: Goals and expeced resuls can, for example, be worded o be specific, measurable, agreed upon, realisic, imely, exending he capabiliies of hose working o achieve he goals, and rewarding o hem (SMART or SMARTER as acronym). Using he SMART ool can help adjus exising educaional policies and sraegies or updae hem in he ligh of new developmens. Acion planning: Acion planning is a process whereby one ranslaes he policy saemens (opions and sraegies) ino execuable, measurable and accounable acions (EMA). In a broader sense, acion planning includes specifying objecives, oupus, sraegies, responsibiliies and imelines (wha, wha for, how, who and when). The oupu of his process is a plan of acion. For he purpose of resul-based planning, he Logical Framework Approach is also widely used when preparing developmen projecs, programmes and plans, hus conribuing o resuls-based programming, managemen and monioring in he educaion secor. Noe: The plan of acion is a sor of business plan 2 (someimes called operaional plan, implemenaion plan or operaing plan), which describes he acions, inpus and resources required over he nex years. I also includes mehods and indicaors for monioring and evaluaing he planned aciviies. In general, i comprises (i) he secor analysis; (2) he policy direcions; and (iii) he acion programme (See also Box 1). The secor analysis summarises he findings of he srucural, funcional, and pedagogical diagnoses of an educaion sysem as well as he design of policy opions and areas for improvemen. The par dealing wih policies and sraegies presens he policy framework concerning he mission, he policy objecives/orienaions, as well as he sraegies of insiuional reform and effecive implemenaion of he educaion policy. The acion programme, medium-erm in general, describes he acions and aciviies o be carried ou, he resources (human, echnical, physical, and financial) required, he responsibiliies and he implemenaion imeframe. Ofen, minisries will develop shor-erm plans (1 o 2 years) for each sub-secor, deparmen, ec., which are someimes called work plans. 2 In addiion o he sraegic plan or quie ofen as par of i, one will have o prepare an acion plan of medium range. This rolling medium-erm plan (in general, 3-5 years according o counries planning pracices) will permi mid-erm updaes and necessary adjusmens o long-erm policies and sraegies in place. 7

A resul-based planning handbook Usually, projecions of resource requiremens are included in sraegic, operaing or work plans. Resources can be human, echnical, physical and financial. Informaion on financial resources include: he cos esimaes required for he implemenaion of he plan, he budge likely o be available in he fuure and he funding gaps (addiional funding) o fill in for each of he years included in he span of ime, giving paricular aenion o he firs years. The MTEF (Mid-Term Expendiure Framework) processes in place in some counries should conribue o fruiful negoiaions and rade-offs beween he op-down budge ceiling and boom-up iniiaives for resource envelope for he secor. 3 Plans build on he MTEF and furher deail how he funds will be spen (by recurren budge, capial budge, projec budges, ec.) Noe: In he conex of sraegic planning, policy simulaion modelling is widely used when preparing educaion secor developmen plans or programmes, as a ool for scenario planning and resource projecions. Since here are oo many acors, ineress and he inerrelaions beween hese in he educaion secor, i is necessary o have no only a reliable informaion sysem, bu also an objecive forecasing ool o faciliae policy consulaions regarding policy feasibiliy, financial consrains and heir consequences on educaion and naional developmen. 1.2. The basic srucure of plan or programme documens A plan or programme documen usually follows wih a variey of varians he logic srucure of which is presened in Box 1. The following chapers presen some aspecs ha are subjec o analysis hroughou he process of secor developmen planning, viz. diagnosis, policy formulaion and acion planning. Furhermore, hey describe how he Logical Framework Approach can be used in he conex of he design of an educaion secor developmen plan or programme. 3 See Public Expendiure Managemen Handbook. 1998. World Bank for a concepual and pracical overview of he MTEF procedures. 8

I. The sraegic managemen cycle Box 1. The basic srucure of plan documens I. SECTOR ANALYSIS I.1. General conex I.2. Sysem descripion I.3. Siuaion analysis (achievemens, lessons, issues, challenges and opporuniies) I.5. Sakeholder analysis II. POLICY AND STRATEGY II.1. Developmen objecive and overall goals II.2. Specific objecives and sraegy for achieving developmen objecive II.3. Beneficiaries II.4. Insiuional arrangemens II.5. Major sub-programmes (or Sub-secors) III. PROGRAMMES OF ACTION III.1. Sub-programme 1 III.1.1. Programme objecive (Saemen and descripion of he programme) III.1.2. Componens (Resuls-> Acions ->Inpus/Resources) III.2. Sub-programme 2 III.X. Sub-programme X IV. MANAGEMENT, MONITORING AND EVALUATION IV.1. Governance and managemen IV.2. Developmen coordinaion (governmen, donors, NGOs, privae secor, ec.) IV.2. Risk assessmen and assumpions IV.3 Monioring and evaluaion V. COSTS VI. ANNEXES 9

Chaper II. Secor analysis Secor analysis is he firs sage of secor developmen planning. Secor review, siuaion analysis, diagnosis, ec. are someimes used inerchangeably. Basically, secor analysis consiss in conducing daa collecion on and criical analysis of he aspecs relaing o (and surrounding) he educaion secor. Planners and managers carefully examine boh inernal and exernal aspecs of he educaion sysem. In oher words, hey: 4 review how he sysem funcions (inernal dynamics) o mee people s needs and economic demand; 4 examine various driving forces behind he educaion sysem and exernal condiions (he environmen of which educaion is a par), e.g. macro-economic and socio-demographic siuaions and developmens. Planners and managers can look a he above aspecs from he perspecive of he sysem s srenghs, weaknesses, lessons and opporuniies regarding educaional developmen. They also examine he relevance, efficiency and effeciveness of he inpus, processes and oupus of he sysem in is curren seing. This helps o idenify criical issues, challenges and consruc remedial acions and policy provisions. 2.1. Diagnosic aspecs o be analyzed The main caegories of aspecs o be considered when conducing an Educaion Secor Analysis (ESA) and/or when describing he diagnosic par of an educaion secor developmen plan are: (i) macro-economic and socio-demographic frameworks; (ii) access o and paricipaion in educaion; (iii) qualiy of educaion; (iv) exernal efficiency; (v) coss and financing of educaion; and (vi) managerial and insiuional aspecs. The aspecs (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) and (vi) can be documened by sub-secor (preschool, primary and secondary educaion, echnical and vocaional educaion, higher educaion, non formal educaion, ec.) The following paragraphs describe, by caegory, he major aspecs o be analysed in erms of achievemens, lessons, issues, challenges and/or opporuniies. Annex 1 presens in more deail he various aspecs ha can be considered for a diagnosis of he educaion secor, including he daa and indicaors o be provided. 4 Macro-economic and socio-demographic frameworks: This is abou analyzing he main aspecs and feaures of he socio-economic conex of he counry in so far as hey 4 For hose who are ineresed in having more deailed informaion on hese diagnosic aspecs, please refer o Annex 1. 11

A resul-based planning handbook can have impac on educaion developmen. The general characerisics of a counry can be sudied mainly by carrying ou, bu no limied o, analyses of demographic (general and school-relaed) daa, he macro-economic and budgeary conex, he socio-culural environmen and he poliical and insiuional srucures and frameworks. a) Demography and manpower This involves analyzing he demographic aspecs of a leas he las wo years (preferably 5 o 10 years) and he probable changes in he coming years (noably he period of programming of he plan), no only in he oal populaion of he counry, bu especially in he school-age populaion. b) Macro-economic and budgeary framework This is abou analyzing he pas rends and he possible developmens of naional produciviy, domesic revenues, and he prospecive share of educaion in oal public expendiure. On he basis of macro-economic daa and informaion provided by agencies dealing wih cenral planning and finance, educaion minisries will analyse some of he following macro-economic and budgeary indicaors: 4 Public expendiure on educaion as percenage of gross naional produc 4 Public expendiure on educaion as percenage of oal governmen expendiure 4 Percenage disribuion of public curren expendiure on educaion by level 4 Public curren expendiure per pupil (suden) as % of GNP per capia 4 Public curren expendiure on educaion as percenage of oal public expendiure on educaion 4 Privae (or communiy) funding, if any 4 Exernal funding, if any c) Socio-culural analysis This secion concerns in paricular: he demographic composiion, he socio-culural and someimes religious srucure, he counry s culural radiions which can have an impac on he social demand for educaion, he schooling and he school performance of minoriies, and of girls/boys, ec. d) Poliico-insiuional analysis The aspecs of insiuional, poliical and erriorial organizaion are likely o have an impac on he educaion services of a counry. I involves he 12

II. Secor analysis analysis of he funcioning mode of he Sae and local/public auhoriies (cenralized or decenralized sysems, ec.), bu also he reforms in view and heir likely consequences for he educaion sysem. The role and responsibiliies of he differen planning and managemen auhoriies should be analyzed in order o show heir srenghs and weaknesses and idenify he pahs o follow o remedy possible managemen problems in he educaion secor. Access o and paricipaion in educaion: This par mainly concerns analysing he access and paricipaion a each level of educaion; he inernal efficiency, and he dispariies in educaion. a) Access and paricipaion This secion of he educaion secor diagnosis analyses educaion coverage by level and ype of educaion according o he srucure of he educaion sysem (a all levels and across all ypes of educaion), including he provision of educaion by public, semi-public, privae or communiy schools, ec. Analysis is carried ou of presen rends building on an examinaion of pas endencies. Some main indicaors ha are used o measure access o and paricipaion in educaion are: Access o educaion can be defined as he exen o which he schoolage populaion is able o access he firs grade of a paricular level or cycle of educaion. The mos commonly used indicaors o measure his aspec of he educaion secor are: 4he apparen inake rae; 4he ne inake rae; 4he ransiion rae; and 4he regisraion rae. Paricipaion in educaion can be defined as he coverage of he schoolage populaion in educaion services, ideally o he compleion of he level concerned. The mos commonly used indicaors o measure his aspec of he educaion secor are: 4gross enrolmen raio; 4ne enrolmen raio; 4age-specific enrolmen raio. b) Inernal efficiency The inernal efficiency of an educaion sysem basically measures he number of years i akes a child o complee a paricular cycle or level of educaion, e.g. primary, secondary, ec. The basic indicaors required o measure he inernal efficiency of an educaion sysem are calculaed on he basis of he flow raes: 13

A resul-based planning handbook 4promoion rae; 4repeiion rae; and 4dropou rae. The indicaors of he survival, reenion, compleion raes, ec. are calculaed building on hese flow raes. Cohor analysis using flow diagrams is useful o calculae hese indicaors of inernal efficiency. A school cohor is a group of pupils who join he firs grade of a given cycle or level of educaion in he same year and subsequenly experience he evens of promoion, repeiion or dropou. Cohor analysis races he flow of a group of pupils who ener he firs grade in he same year and progress hrough an enire cycle or level of educaion. In paricular, i can help calculae wasages due o dropou or repeiion, survival raes and he coefficien of efficiency. For more deails, please refer o Annex 4. Examples of indicaors are: 4Years-inpu per graduae 4Average duraion of sudies per graduae 4Average duraion of sudies per dropou 4Average duraion of sudies for he cohor 4Proporion of oal wasage spen on dropou 4Proporion of oal wasage spen on repeiion 4Survival raes by grade 4Coefficien of efficiency c) Dispariies. This means analyzing he educaional coverage and services by gender (girls/boys), by adminisraive area (region, disrics, ec.), by populaion densiy (urban/rural) or by socio-culural groupings (social sraa, ehnic or linguisic minoriy groups, ec.). Qualiy of educaion: In principle, qualiy should deal no only wih educaional inpus, bu also wih oupus, oucomes (e.g. learning achievemen, he acquisiion of basic life skills, ciizenship, ec.), and processes. However, because such educaional oucomes are ofen difficul o measure, planners and managers have ended o rely on he quaniy and he qualiy of educaional inpus (resources) and o a limied exen, processes, o assess educaional qualiy. Inernal efficiency indicaors (for example, promoion, repeiion and dropou raes) are ofen used as proxies o measure he qualiy of educaion. Three broad caegories of educaional inpus are: (i) educaion personnel; (ii) insrucional mehods and maerials; and (iii) educaional faciliies. a) Educaion personnel Teachers are he principal facor in educaional provision. On he oher hand, salaries represen he mos imporan par of recurren educaion 14

II. Secor analysis expendiure. This implies ha eachers aribues need o be analysed carefully. One ough o examine, for example, he number of eachers available, he requiremen of eachers in he ligh of he naional or subnaional norms and sandards, pupils/eacher raios, he level of eachers qualificaion and heir raining needs, and he saus of pedagogical and adminisraive supervision. Teacher salaries by caegory or by level of qualificaion need o be analysed in consulaion wih oher minisries or insiuions concerned. Some eacher-relaed indicaors ha can be analysed include: 4 The number of eachers available in he sysem and new eachers o be recruied 4Pupil-eacher raio 4 Teachers emolumens as a percenage of public curren expendiure on educaion b) Educaional faciliies This is abou school space and equipmen. In counries ha have reached high levels of educaion, physical consrucion can represen marginal invesmen. However, in counries ha have significanly low enrolmen raios, his is one of he mos imporan budgeary caegories. This implies he need for a horough and careful analysis of he coss and sandards of consrucion, mainenance coss, he condiions of educaional faciliies (blackboards, desks, larines, waer, ec.), as well as he space-ime use of classrooms according o levels and ypes of educaion. Some indicaors ha can help measure he space-ime use of educaional faciliies are: 4Pupil-classroom raio 4Classroom space uilisaion rae 4Classroom ime uilisaion rae 4Classroom uilizaion rae 4Classroom requiremens c) Insrucional mehods, processes and oupus This is abou evaluaing he saus (or he availabiliy) and he relevance of school programmes, pedagogical mehods (as for example, he ypes of pupil groupings in muligrade classes, double shifs, ec., and also he class sizes), and of insrucional maerial (exbooks, eacher s guides and equipmen). Depending on he resources available o his end, specific research sudies should be carried ou in order o: 4 Assess he acual learning achievemen of sudens, aking ino accoun heir individual characerisics and he various educaional inpus (lear- 15

A resul-based planning handbook ning environmen, educaional faciliies, eachers qualificaions, pedagogical supervision, ec.) as well as non-school facors (geographical zone of schools, parens social and economic backgrounds, disance o schools, ec.); 4 Idenify policy opions o improve suden performance in ligh of he naure and weigh of he differen facors influencing he eaching and learning by sudens. Educaional oucomes and exernal effeciveness: This is abou he performance of graduaes of a cerain level of educaion in acive social and economic life, meaning, he social and economic benefis ha individuals and/or sociey can draw from he invesmens made in educaion. Depending on he conexs and he counries, he analysis of he characerisics of school-leavers (graduaes of a given educaional cycle), of heir professional inegraion in he job marke (racer sudies of school graduaes) can prove essenial in he definiion of educaional reforms. Educaional coss and finance: This par deals wih quesions on educaional coss, financing and spending: How much educaion services cos a naional or subnaional levels, who pays for educaion, how resources are allocaed and wheher hey are used efficienly and effecively. a) Coss of educaion This means expendiure by ype, by funcion and by level of educaion as well as uni coss. Expendiure is in general analyzed in erms of recurren or capial coss. Recurren expendiure is subdivided ino salaries (eaching personnel and non-eaching personnel) and oher recurren coss (exbooks, eacher guides, oher educaional maerials). Someimes, expendiure is made in cash or in kind. The analysis of uni coss, noably on salaries and school buildings, is imporan and necessary. On he basis of oal expendiure and enrolmens, one can calculae uni coss (coss per pupil) by school level, by ype (general or echnical educaion) or by saus (public, semi-public or privae). Noe: Increasingly, organizaions analyze coss per pupil or salaries per eacher as muliples of GDP per capia o make comparisons no only beween he levels and ypes of educaion in he counry, bu also o make regional and inernaional comparisons. Considering he imporance of salary expendiure, hese are analyzed in a deailed way in relaion o he salaries of oher professions of similar qualificaions in he counry, and salaries of eachers in comparable counries. These uni coss are compared wih he bulk of salaries in he ligh of class sizes and he suden/eacher raios (or he weekly eaching hours for eachers and he weekly learning hours for pupils, especially a pos-primary levels). This analysis will make i possible for each counry o adop appropriae policies in increasing or mainaining salary levels by aking measures in qualiy improvemen in educaion and in he saus of 16

II. Secor analysis eachers. The analysis of he cos of school buildings is anoher imporan field, in paricular in counries where enrolmen raios are low. b) Educaional finance This involves he analysis of he financing of educaion by he Sae and local auhoriies (naional educaion budge and oher public budges), of he financing by families (in kind or by cash) in public as well as in privae educaion, of he financing by oher naional agens (indusries, religious denominaions, parens associaions, ec.) or by exernal agencies (which could be grans or loans a mulilaeral, bilaeral, or NGO level), and for recurren or capial coss. A he naional level, here exis several miniserial deparmens in charge of educaion and raining. I happens ha decenralized auhoriies receive non-allocaed credis from he Sae. I is also necessary o define he budges voed and he real expendiure. Noe: I is imporan o analyze he non-governmenal spending, be i naional (local groups, paren associaions, enerprises, ec.) or foreign (mulilaeral, bilaeral or non-governmenal grans and/or loans). The non-governmenal naional budgeary daa can be obained during household surveys or from oher providers of educaion and raining. Experience also shows ha i is no easy o obain he budgeary daa of exernal agencies, given he (i) mulipliciy of concerned parners; (ii) he absence of accouns and he diversiy of budgeary caegories; (iii) he differen programming and disbursemen cycles of agencies. c) Use of resources This involves analyzing how resources are allocaed and used wihin and across differen sub-secors or levels of educaion, as well as a he insiuion level. Some quesions ha can be raised include, bu are no limied o: 4 Is he allocaion of financial resources a differen levels appropriae (increased or reduced)? 4 Are resources spen and used in an efficien, effecive and ransparen way? 4 Could here be a possibiliy of rade-offs o increase he cos-efficiency and he cos-effeciveness wihin and across differen levels and ypes of educaion? 4 Is he financial managemen placed a a righ level considering he exising insiuional capaciy (cenral, decenralized, school based, ec.)? Managerial and insiuional aspecs: This is he quesion of relaing he normaive aspecs of he sysem o he insiuional and organizaional managemen pracices of he secor wih a view o idenifying srenghs and weaknesses 17

A resul-based planning handbook in order o bring abou improvemens. The managemen aspecs could be examined according o he radiional dualiy of he educaional organizaion: 4 he planning and adminisraive funcion which consiss of programming and disribuing resources (budges, personnel, buildings, insrucional maerials, ec.) among he levels of educaion, regions and /or schools, 4 he pedagogical funcion which conribues o he acual managemen and ransformaion of hese resources ino end-producs (graduaes, learning achievemens, individual and social benefis). 2.2. Secor analysis hrough he LFA 2.2.1. Logical Framework Approach: An overview The Logical Framework Approach (LFA) is an analyical echnique which can help educaional planners and managers o: 4srucure he analysis of he curren siuaion; 4esablish a logical hierarchy of objecives; 4 srucure ways and means by which hese objecives will be achieved; 4 idenify he poenial risks o achieving he objecives and expeced oucomes; and 4 esablish how oupus and oucomes migh be moniored, reviewed and evaluaed. Noe: A disincion needs o be made beween he Logical Framework Approach (LFA) and he Logical Framework Marix (LFM). In a large sense, he LFA involves he whole process of problem analysis, sakeholder analysis, designing a hierarchy of objecives and proposing implemenaion sraegies. The end produc of his analyical approach in summary form is he marix (or Logframe), which oulines wha he programme/projec inends o do and how, wha he assumpions (exernal facors) are, and how oupus and oucomes will be moniored, reviewed and evaluaed. In a narrow sense, LFA means a process by which one consrucs an LFM. Once developed, he produc of he LFA can be used as a monioring and managemen ool for monioring and reviewing he implemenaion of a plan, a programme or a developmen projec. The marix srucure is shown in Figure 1, ogeher wih a lis of he quesions ha he marix conains. 18

II. Secor analysis This marix shows amongs ohers how o sar framing he objecives hierarchy in he firs column of he Logframe marix. Objecives a he op of he column should help frame goal and purpose saemens, while furher down he column, oupu and aciviy saemens can be idenified. This exercise of filling in he firs column (hierarchy of objecives) of he Logframe can be faciliaed by an ieraive process of building a problem ree and urning i ino an objecive ree as can be seen in Figures 3 and 7. In oher words, his consiss of esablishing and checking he causes-effecs and means-ends relaionships and logics in he form of rees and hen ransposing hem on he firs column of he Logframe. Figure 1. Logframe marix srucure: principal quesions Narraive Summary Goal Indicae he broad objecive o which he plan or projec has o conribue Objecively Verifiable Indicaors (OVI) Wha are he quaniaive or qualiaive measuremens o assess wheher he goals are being achieved? Means of Verificaion (MOV) Wha sources of informaion exiss o verify he course of he plan or projec? Risks and Assumpions Wha exernal facors are necessary for achieving hese broad objecives? Purpose Indicae he end-ofprogramme/projec saus Wha are he quaniaive measuremens or qualiaive evidence by which he achievemen of hese specific objecives can be judged (esimaed ime) Wha sources of informaion exiss o verify he achievemen of he specific objecives? (Purpose o Goal): Wha condiions exernal o he plan/ projec are necessary if achievemen of he purpose is o conribue o reaching he goal? Oupus Indicae each of he oupus ha are o be produced in order o achieve he purpose Wha kind and quaniy of oupus, and by when will hey be produced? (quaniy, qualiy, ime) Wha sources of informaion can be o verify ha oupus are produced? (Oupu of Purpose): Wha are he condiions exernal o he plan/projec which, if no me, are liable o resric progress from oupus o achievemen of he purpose? 19

A resul-based planning handbook Narraive Summary Acions/ Aciviies Indicae each of he acions/aciviies ha are o be underaken in order o produce each of he oupus. Objecively Verifiable Indicaors (OVI) The verifiable indicaors a his level consis of resources required o underake he aciviies (insiuions, persons, ime schedule, ec.). Means of Verificaion (MOV) MOVs a his level are usually he coss required o implemen he aciviies Risks and Assumpions (Aciviy o Oupu): 1) Wha exernal facors mus exis o obain expeced oupus on ime? 2) Wha kind of condiions ouside he conrol of he plan or projec is necessary for is incepion (precondiions)? Depending on he specific needs and pracices of an organizaion, his Logframe can be developed furher o include addiional levels of analysis and programming (e.g. oucome). In his maerial, differen seps of building he Logframe are examined according o he groupings of hree sages of planning, i.e. siuaion analysis, policy formulaion and acion planning as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Three principal sages of Logframe Siuaion analysis Problem analysis Sakeholder analysis Policy and sraegy formulaion Analysis of objecives Analysis of sraegies Acion programmes Logframe Marix Nesing of Logframes Performance indicaors Means of verificaion Risk assessmen and assumpions Inpus/resources Prior o designing a Logframe marix, i is necessary o underake a srucured analysis of he curren siuaion (Secions 2.2.2 and 2.2.3). The above analyical sages should be approached as an ieraive process, no as a linear se of prescribed seps. For example, while sakeholder analysis is presened as coming afer problem analysis, in pracice, some preliminary sakeholder analysis is required prior o problem analysis in order o clarify who should be involved in he analysis of problems. The oher elemens of LFA relaing o policy formulaion and acion planning are examined in Chapers 3 and 4. 20

II. Secor analysis The following paragraphs explain how one can carry ou a srucured siuaion analysis (problem analysis and sakeholder analysis) by means of he Logical Framework Approach and in ligh of he findings of he secor analysis. SWOT analysis, anoher echnique ha can help srucure a diagnosic analysis of a problem or a sysem, is briefly presened as well. 2.2.2. Siuaion analysis The wo echniques, examined in his handbook, can be alernaively or in a combined way used in describing he curren siuaion: (i) problem analysis by means of he Logical Framework Approach; (ii) SWOT analysis. Problem analysis One can apply he Logical Framework, especially is echniques of problem analysis, in order o idenify and srucure he hierarchy of problems ha he educaion sysem faces. Differen aspecs o be considered for a diagnosis of he educaion secor are explained in Secion 2.1. In general, developmen plans, programmes and projecs are designed in order o overcome he curren problems and improve he exising unsaisfacory siuaion. As said earlier in his handbook, a diagnosic analysis in educaion consiss in describing he major educaional aspecs in erms of achievemens, problems, lessons, issues, challenges and opporuniies. Problem analysis can help in his analyical work of siuaion analysis by idenifying wha he problems are and esablishing he cause and effec relaionships beween hese problems. The key purpose of his analysis is o idenify he roo causes and, no jus he effecs and sympoms of he problem(s). A useful medical analogy can be used o emphasise his poin: If you go o he docor wih a bad headache, and he docor prescribes a pain killer wihou any furher deailed diagnosis, he docor is reaing he effec and no he cause of your problem. Wihou fi nding ou wha is causing he headache in he fi rs place, i is likely ha pain will persis as soon as he medicaion wears off. Projecs which only address he effecs of problems, and no underlying causes, are herefore unlikely o bring abou susainable benefi s. 5 5 AusGUIDELines: 1. The Logical Framework Approach, Las Updaed 2003, AusAID, Ausralian Governmen. 21

A resul-based planning handbook Figure 3a: Problem ree srucure Effecs Core Problem Causes Roo Causes In principle, he problem analysis should follow an in-deph invesigaory, echnical work (daa collecion and analysis): he diagnosic daa, presened in Secion 2.1, have o be colleced and analyzed firs; hese daa, once analyzed and compiled, will be made available, in a synheic form, before consrucing a problem analysis and for review by sakeholders (please refer o Secion 2.2.3 on Sakeholder analysis). A principal ool used in problem analysis is he problem ree, ha is o be consruced by a group of people concerned wih educaion developmen problems. This is abou idenifying all exising problems and placing hem according o heir level causes and effecs around a core problem (See Figure 3a). Noe: The problem ree can be echnically consruced by an individual. However, i is srongly recommended ha his problem ree and he subsequen analysis are carried ou collecively by a group of people, i.e. he sakeholders sharing ineres in developmen and also hose affeced by such a change. Secion 2.2.3 and Annex 2 describe he professional and oher ineres groups ha can consiue sakeholders in he educaion sysem. 22

II. Secor analysis Some ips for consrucing a problem ree are: 1. Bring ogeher major sakeholders for consrucing a problem ree on he basis of he daa and he findings provided. 2. Lis, on paper or flipchar, all he problems ha come o mind. Problems need o be carefully idenified: hey should be exising problems, no possible, hypoheical, imagined or fuure ones. 3. Idenify a core problem (his may involve considerable rial and error before deciding on one). 4. Deermine which problems are Causes and which are Effecs of he core problem. 5. Arrange in hierarchy boh Causes and Effecs, and idenify how he causes relae o each oher in order o find ou wha are he roo causes of he core problem. A simplified example of he problem ree is shown in Figure 3b. Around he core problem of low learning achievemen, we can see differen layers of causes and effecs ha are sraified by means of srucuring echniques. The problems idenified as causes are placed under he core problem, while hose idenified as effecs are pu above. The roo causes are hose placed a he very boom of his ree: one will have o ac on hese roo causes in order o improve hem and herefore hey will be subjec o aciviies o carry ou as we will see laer when explaining he analysis of objecives. 23

A resul-based planning handbook Figure 3b: An example of he problem ree Increased drop-ou and ou-of-school children Inefficien use of resource due o high school ariion rae EFFECTS High raes of repeiion and dropou Low level of learning achievemen CORE PROBLEM Low school aendance & frequen abseneeism Poor educaional condiions CAUSES Absence of propoor policy High number of unqualified eachers Insufficien learning maerials SWOT Analysis The so-called SWOT analysis can be usefully and flexibly used in order o complemen his sage of siuaion analysis. SWOT analysis is a ool for analysing a sysem and is funcioning in an environmen. In he firs sage of planning, i can help planners and managers o focus on key issues. SWOT sands for srenghs, weaknesses, opporuniies, and hreas. Srenghs and weaknesses are inernal facors, while opporuniies and hreas are exernal o he sysem. SWOT analysis provides informaion ha is helpful in maching he sysem s resources and capaciies o he compeiive (inerconneced) and dynamic (evolving) environmen in which i operaes. As such, i is insrumenal in problem idenificaion and sraegy formulaion. Noe: SWOT is an analyical ool and does no provide daa o work on. Thus, one mus collec and process he daa o be analyzed and use research and sudies on he educaion secor (exising or addiional, o be carried ou) when applying SWOT analysis. Anoher cauion is ha SWOT analysis can be very subjecive; wo people rarely come up wih he same final version of SWOT. Therefore, a collegial work can help reduce his subjeciviy. 24

II. Secor analysis The figure 4 provides an example of a SWOT Analysis used o assess boh inernal and exernal condiions and facors of an educaion sysem in ligh of he daa and sudies ha are examined in an educaion secor analysis. From his analysis: 4One will have a picure of he curren siuaion as well as a road map ha shows how o build on he srenghs of he sysem and minimize (or eliminae) he weaknesses; 4One can hen use his able o ake advanage of opporuniies and avoid (or lessen) hreas, by uilizing he informaion gained o consruc sraegies; 4To ake hese furher seps, a marix of he facors (SWOT marix, also known as TOWS marix 6 ) can be consruced as shown in Figure 5. SWOT marix can help srucure policy opions and sraegies on he basis of he daa analysed using a SWOT Analysis (Figure 4) such as is oulined below: 4S-O sraegies pursue opporuniies ha are a good fi o he sysem s srenghs. 4W-O sraegies overcome weaknesses o pursue opporuniies. 4S-T sraegies idenify ways ha he managers of he sysem can use he srenghs o reduce heir vulnerabiliy o exernal hreas. 4W-T sraegies esablish a defensive plan o preven he sysem s weaknesses from making i highly suscepible o exernal hreas. 7 6 TOWS analysis is similar o SWOT, bu looks a he negaive facors firs in order o urn hem ino posiive facors. 7 See Simplifi ed Sraegic Planning: A No-Nonsense Guide for Busy People Who Wan Resuls Fas! 1999 by Rober W. Bradford e al., for an overview of he LFA echniques and sages. 25

A resul-based planning handbook Figure 4: An example of a SWOT analysis of an educaion sysem I N T E R N A L E X T E R N A L Srenghs Inernal posiive aspecs ha are under conrol and upon which you may capialize in planning: Policies and legislaion on universal basic educaion Decenralized planning and managemen srucure Diversified forms and ypes of educaion available Relaively good nework of educaional esablishmens A good number of moivaed educaional personnel Opporuniies Posiive exernal condiions ha you do no conrol bu of which you can plan o ake advanage: More financial resources likely o be available in he fuure Posiive perspecives for more jobs (e.g., growh, globalizaion, echnological advances) Naion-wide insiuional reforms for greaer devoluion of power o provinces High social demand for qualiy educaion Increased donor suppor o educaion Weaknesses Inernal negaive aspecs ha are under your conrol and ha you may plan o improve: Low managemen capaciy, especially a decenralized level Lack of reliable daa and informaion o feed policy and decision making Low level morale and professionalism of many educaion personnel Insufficien number of educaional esablishmens in some provinces Low inernal efficiency and flow raes (e.g., low promoion raes, high ariion raes, low learning achievemen, ec.) Threas Negaive exernal condiions ha you do no conrol bu he effec of which you may be able o lessen: Low salaries of civil servans, including eachers Weak governance: generalized corrupion, lack of ransparency in planning and managemen Unfavourable climae for appropriae educaion provision (in some provinces) Brain drain of qualified personnel, including eachers Figure 5: SWOT Marix Srenghs Weaknesses Opporuniies S-O sraegies W-O sraegies Threas S-T sraegies W-T sraegies 26

II. Secor analysis 2.2.3. Sakeholder analysis Sakeholders can be described as individuals, groups and/or insiuions having an ineres in a projec or a plan. They can: 4 Be posiively or negaively affeced by he impac of he plan or he projec; and/or 4Influence he success or he failure of he projec or he plan. Annex 2 presens in exenso he professional and oher ineres groups ha can consiue sakeholders in he educaion secor. Once he main problems and he causaliy relaionships beween hem (causes and effecs) are idenified in he problem analysis by means of he problem ree, he nex sep is o carry ou a sakeholder analysis. This is in order o idenify on who hese problems acually impac he mos, and wha he roles and ineress of differen sakeholders migh be in addressing he problems and reaching soluions. In oher words, sakeholder analysis consiss in asking he following wo quesions: Whose problem? and, if a sraegy is proposed: Who will benefi? Noe: I may be necessary o underake a sakeholder analysis prior o he problem analysis (an iniial sakeholder analysis) in order o clarify who should be involved in he analysis of problems. Concreely, a sakeholder analysis aims: 4 To idenify he likely impacs of policies, plans/programmes, and projecs; 4To assess he exising or poenial conflics of ineres; and 4 To ake accoun of he impacs and various ineress when designing policy opions, implemenaion sraegies and developmen acions. The main seps in sakeholder analysis involve idenifying: 4he main sakeholders (e.g. local, regional and/or naional levels); 4 winners and losers, hose wih ineress, righs, resources and abiliies o ake par or influence he course of a programme; 4 he exen of cooperaion or conflic in he relaionship beween sakeholders. A principal ool used in sakeholder analysis is he Sakeholder Analysis Marix, as shown in Figure 6a and ha is o be consruced and informed by a group of people. The firs sep is o idenify all he individuals, groups, and insiuions ha will affec or be affeced by a change, hen o lis hem in he column under Sakeholder and o rae heir ineress, roles and appropriae sraegies. 27

A resul-based planning handbook Figure 6a: Sakeholder Analysis Marix 1. Sakeholder 2. Sakeholder ineres(s) 3. Assessmen of impac 4. Sraegies for wining suppor or reducing obsacles Seps for compleing a sakeholder analysis marix: 1. Once he lis of all poenial sakeholders is drawn in he column under Sakeholder, review he lis. 2. Idenify he specific ineress hese sakeholders have in a change. One can consider issues like: he benefi(s) of a change o he sakeholder; he effec ha a change migh have on he sakeholder (damage or conflic for he sakeholder). Explain briefly hese under he column Sakeholder ineres(s). 3. Review again each sakeholder lised in column one. Ask he quesions: how imporan are he sakeholder s ineress o he success of he proposed projec? Wha is he role he sakeholder can play for a change o be successful, and how likely will he sakeholder play his role? Wha s he likely impac of a sakeholder s negaive response o he change? 4. Assign, in he column Assessmen of Impac, A for exremely imporan, B for fairly imporan, and C for no very imporan. 5. Lasly, consider he measures ha you could ake o ge sakeholder suppor and reduce opposiion. Ask he quesions: Wha kind of informaion will hey need? How imporan is i o involve he sakeholder in he planning or implemenaion process? Are here oher groups or individuals ha migh influence he sakeholder o suppor your iniiaive? Describe your sraegies for obaining suppor or reducing obsacles in he las column in he marix. Then, one can also draw up a paricipaion marix o assign he ype(s) of paricipaion of sakeholders (e.g. will a sakeholder be he objec of informaion, consulaion, parnership and/or conrol?) according o heir roles, ineress and impacs and a each sage of planning and/or execuion (Figure 6b). This ogeher wih he sakeholder analysis marix will help design sakeholder paricipaion sraegies for a projec or a plan. 28

Chaper III. Policy objecives Educaion secor policies represen he governmen s public commimen o he fuure orienaion of he secor. A clearly formulaed policy can play an imporan operaional role as a reference for acion. I can help o guide decisions and fuure acions in educaional developmen, including he inervenions of inernaional and bilaeral cooperaion agencies, in a coheren way. I is imporan ha policy promoe he coordinaion and success of programmes and projecs. The formulaion of a good policy for educaion is a necessary sep in promoing he emergence and effecive implemenaion of acion plans, programmes and projecs. 3.1. Educaion policy aspecs 3.1.1. Policy dialogue Policy dialogue refers o he consulaions beween sakeholders affeced by and/or involved in he formulaion and implemenaion of he secor policy: informaion sharing, consulaions, negoiaions wih oher line minisries and developmen parners. This akes on differen formal and informal paerns: naional conferences, consulaive fora, ad hoc consulaions, working groups meeings, seminars, round ables of donors for echnical consulaion or resource mobilizaion, ec. Policy dialogue should be organized echnically in order o allow he paricipans o sing on he same shee of music and o faciliae building consensus or compromise based on he same informaion. This involves he acual implicaion of all he sakeholders no only for he implemenaion of he policies, bu also a all sages of managemen: problem idenificaion, policy formulaion, acion planning, monioring and evaluaion of he programme implemenaion. The ineress and percepions of hose who paricipae in he process of policy formulaion and plan implemenaion differ. One has o analyse he professional and echnical perspecives of he principal acors, he ineres groups and he decision making process. This can be done by means of sakeholder analysis. Sakeholders are he people: (i) affeced by he impac of an aciviy; and (ii) who can influence he impac. Annex 2 presens he analysis of he differen perspecives of professionals and ineres groups ha have sakes in educaional developmen. 3.1.2. Policy aspecs o be addressed Firs of all, here is a need o clarify he difference beween various levels of objecives and policy saemens. 31

A resul-based planning handbook The overall objecive (someimes called Goal according o he Logical Framework Approach) is he aim oward which a plan or projec is direced. Generally, a goal is no an objecive ha can be achieved by one plan or projec alone, bu is he end oward which a variey of plans (educaion, healh, povery reducion, ec.) and non-planned aciviies are aimed. The specific objecive (oherwise called he arge or Purpose according o he Logical Framework Approach) is he objecive which he plan or projec is designed o achieve. The achievemen of he purpose should conribue o he achievemen of he overall objecive he goal. A policy is a se of he goal and purposes (specific objecives). Ofen, educaion policies are defined along he following hreefold dimension: 4access (access, paricipaion, including gender and equiy issues) 4 qualiy (qualiy, inernal efficiency, relevance and exernal effeciveness) 4managemen (governance, decenralizaion, resource managemen). These dimensions are addressed (i) eiher as a whole, by programme componen or by sub-secor, (ii) wih arge indicaors by ime-range (medium or long-erm) and wih a few quaniaive indicaors. One canno say ha here is a perfec way of wriing policies or of lising differen policy aspecs. An indicaive checklis is presened below as a way of providing specificaion of some of he fields requiring definiion in an educaional policy and he implemenaion sraegies. This lis is no exhausive: 4access o and paricipaion in educaion; 4 equiy and he reducion of dispariies beween boys and girls, regional dispariies, rural/urban dispariies and social dispariies; 4 qualiy and he relevance of educaion a differen levels (basic educaion, general secondary educaion, echnical and professional educaion, higher educaion, adul educaion, ec.); 4 he place ha he privae secor and local groups occupy in he organizaion of educaion; 4 regulaion of suden flows beween (i) formal and non-formal educaion; (ii) public and privae educaion; (iii) general secondary, echnical, and professional educaion; (iv) shor and longer higher educaion; (v) elemenary and secondary, secondary and higher educaion, ec.; 4 insiuional aspecs such as governance, managemen and planning, including he decenralizaion, de-concenraion and cenralizaion balance; 32

III. Policy objecives 4 parnership and communicaion beween acors and parners, he level and form of paricipaion and communicaion; 4cos conrol in recurren and capial expendiure; and 4 policies and sraegies o mobilize resources in connecion wih decenralizaion, he developmen of he privae secor and parnership developmen. Paricular emphasis should be placed on formulaing quanified objecives such as enrolmen, admission, and flow raes, pupils/eacher raios, he supervision rae, he space uilizaion rae and he share of educaion in he naional budge. For his purpose, simulaion echniques and models have been used successfully o define policies ha can hen be quanified for consulaion and he negoiaion of rade-offs beween sakeholders and developmen parners, on issues relaed o enrolmen objecives, he organizaion of provision of differen levels of educaion, and public, privae, exernal financial conribuions. 3.2. Formulaion of policy objecives hrough he LFA This secion describes how one can use he echniques of he Logical Framework Approach (LFA) o analyze and formulae educaion policy objecives and alernaive sraegies. 3.2.1. Definiions and underlying principles of Logframe Table 1 presens he Logical Framework summary. Objecives a he op of he firs column frame goal (or overall objecive) and purpose (or specific objecive) saemens and can be roughly equaed wih he policy, whils oupus and acions indicae he way one wan o achieve his policy (implemenaion sraegy and aciviies). In his able, he hierarchy of objecives is presened according o he following definiions: The Goal (ofen called overall objecive) is a long-erm objecive. I is he aim oward which a plan or projec is direced. Generally, several plans or projecs conribue owards a goal and, conversely, a goal is rarely achievable by means of any one plan or projec. The aribuion of a plan or projec oward he achievemen of he goal is ypically difficul and also difficul o measure. The Purpose (ofen called policy arge or specific objecive) is he objecive which he plan or projec is designed o achieve. These are he benefis (or changes), which he plan or projec seeks o bring abou as a resul of he oupus. The achievemen of he purpose is direcly linked o he achievemen of he goal. 33

A resul-based planning handbook The Oupus are he angible producs for achieving he purpose. They are he deliverables for which specific insiuions are responsible; oupus mus be measurable and mus be delivered on ime. If here is more han one implemening insiuion, hen separae oupus should be disinguished for each insiuion. The Aciviies (ofen called acions depending on he level of programming) are he necessary acions for achieving an oupu. There can be one or several aciviies in order o achieve each oupu. Table 1. Logical framework summary Column 1 Hierarchy of objecives Column 2 Objecively verifiable indicaors Column 3 Means of verificaion Column 4 Assumpions, hypoheses and risks GOAL (or overall / general objecive) Long-erm impac Overall assumpions: Linking naional developmen goals (MDGs, PRSPs, ec.) o secor-specific goals PURPOSE (or specific objecive) End of plan or projec saus Developmen hypohesis: Linking secor developmen objecives o specific objecives OUTPUTS Performance indicaors Implemenaion assumpions: Linking specific objecives o oupus ACTIONS (or aciviies) INPUTS BUDGET Managemen assumpions: Linking oupus o he aciviies The Assumpions in Table 1 are he exernal facors which relae o he relaionship beween differen levels of he cause and effec chain. Assumpions are no jus commens or ineresing facs. An assessmen of he imporance of each assumpion and he probabiliy (risk) of i being rue is required. The more imporan and more risky he assumpion, he greaer he need o consider: (i) redesigning he projec; (ii) seeking o reduce he risk by inernalising he problem; and (iii) preparing a coningency plan in case he wors happens. All indicaors should be measurable. Measurable means ha here is an unambiguous definiion (qualiy) and specific quaniies and imings, in oher words Quaniy, Qualiy and Time (QQT). Ranking and prioriizing can also be a kind of measuremen. 4 Aciviy-level indicaors: Aciviy level indicaors (and means of verificaion) are usually he acual inpus and budges required o implemen hese aciviies. Aciviies are usually broken down according 34

III. Policy objecives o who is responsible for implemenaion. Progress can be moniored agains he associaed budge and he schedule. 4 Oupu-level indicaors: Oupus are compleed achievemens. In he long run, oupus are indicaive of he scope and scale of achievemens required. In he shor run, oupus become very specific arges (in erms of quaniy, qualiy and ime). 4 Purpose-level indicaors: These are he indicaors of change/benefis (oucome) a he level of he arge populaion. Ofen i is necessary o use proxy indicaors since i is eiher difficul or impossible o measure he change direcly. For example, an increase in promoion raes may be a proxy for increased qualiy of educaion. 4 Goal-level indicaors: These are rarely defined or colleced by an individual plan or projec. However, wih he developmen of comprehensive, secor-wide planning, he need o specify impac indicaors has been recognised. Specificaion can indicae wheher he projec or he plan will conribue o he achievemen of he overall developmen goal or no. Means of verificaion are he sources of informaion, e.g. saisics, repors, accouns, ec. ha can help verify he achievemen of each level of objecive, excep for he aciviy level, which consis of financial resources required. 3.2.2. Analysis of objecives In he Logical Framework Approach, he analysis of objecives can be done by means of an objecive ree (Figure 7a). Objecive rees should be prepared afer he problem ree has been compleed and he sakeholder analysis has been underaken. They use exacly he same srucure as he problem rees (refer o Secion 2.2.2), bu wih he problem saemens (negaives) urned ino objecive saemens (posiives). 35

A resul-based planning handbook Figure 7a. Objecive ree ENDS PURPOSE MEANS <- Acions While he problem ree shows he cause and effec relaionships beween problems, he objecive ree shows he means end relaionship beween objecives in order o describe a saisfacory siuaion. An example of he objecive ree is shown in Figure 7b. Figure 7b. An example of he objecive ree Reduced dropou and ou-of-school children Efficien use of resources wih increased promoion rae ENDS Repeiion and dropou raes reduced Improvemen of qualiy and learning achievemen PURPOSE (SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE) Increased aendance of school children Improved eaching & learning condiions More suppor o children of poor families Reinforcemen of in-service eacher raining Sufficien number of learning maerials MEANS 36

III. Policy objecives This leads direcly ino developing he narraive descripion (firs column) in he Logical Framework Marix (LFM). An example is given in Figure 7c presening he saemens of objecives and heir respecive level a he LFM. In oher words, he problems idenified as causes in he problem ree and urned ino posiive saemens will become means in he objecive ree. The firs layer of problems ha was he roo causes becomes he firs layer of means in he objecive ree. These means are he aciviies o be carried ou in order o achieve he second layer of means (oupus). Figure 7c. Example of he linkages beween objecive rees and Logframes Reduced dropou and ou-of-school children Efficien use of resources wih increased promoion rae Repeiion and dropou raes reduced ENDS OBECTIVE STATEMENT INDICATORS GOAL Qualiy educaion Improvemen of qualiy and learning achievemen PURPOSE (SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE) PURPOSE Improvemen of qualiy and learning achievemen Increased aendance of school children More suppor o children of poor families Reinforcemen of in-service eacher raining Improved eaching & learning condiions Sufficien number of learning maerials OUTPUT 1. Increased aendance Flow raes of school children (promoion, 2. Improved eaching repeiion and & learning condiions dropou raes) MEANS ACTION 2.1. Reinforcemen of INPUTS in-service eacher raining 2.2. Sufficien number of learning maerials Noe: According o he Logical Framework Approach, he definiion of objecives is inrinsically imbedded ino he problem analysis. The resuls of he sakeholder analysis may have helped o idenify prioriy problems and no all of he original problem saemens may herefore need o be ranslaed ino objecive saemens. An aciviy a a cerain level of decision making can be a goal or purpose (policy) a anoher level of programme managemen. This can be illusraed hrough he nesing of logframes, which is explained in Chaper 4, Secion 4.3. In he hierarchy of objecives of he above figure, we find he goal and he purpose ha are saemens o be addressed and achieved by he plan or he projec. The Provision of qualiy educaion is he general or long-erm objecive ha a plan or a projec is called o conribues o achieve, while he Improved learning achievemen is he specific objecive of a plan or projec. Secion 3.1.2 presens a number of indicaive policy-relaed aspecs ha are o be examined and addressed when formulaing policy objecives and parameers. 3.2.3. Analysis of alernaive sraegies During he process of esablishing he problems and sakeholders, issues on he required acions, implied consequences and risks are likely discussed. In he same course, a se of aciviies is developed o deliver oupus, which, in urn, are inended o achieve he objecives (purpose and goal). 37

A resul-based planning handbook The ype of quesions ha migh need o be evenually asked (and answered) could include: 4 Are all he idenified problems addressed? 4 Wha is he combinaion of acions ha are mos likely o bring abou he desired oupus? 4 Wha are he likely cos implicaions of differen possible aciviies, and wha can be realisically afforded? 4 Which sraegy will mos effecively suppor insiuional capaciy building? and 4 How can risks be bes miigaed? To assess alernaive ways, i is useful o idenify a number of crieria agains which alernaive acions can be ranked or scored. Crieria ha may be used o help make a broad assessmen of differen opions and alernaives include: 4 benefis o arge groups 4 cos implicaions 4 echnical, financial and economic feasibiliy 4 poliical feasibiliy 4 conribuion o insiuional capaciy building 4 susainabiliy, and 4 compaibiliy of he plan wih oher secor or developmen prioriies. In educaion secor developmen planning processes, policy simulaion models can also help design policy opions and alernaive developmen scenarios, as well as provide useful informaion for evidence policy dialogue among sakeholders (See Foonoe 8 and also Annex 3). 8 CHANG, G. C.; RADI, M. 2001. Educaional planning hrough compuer simulaion. 38

Chaper IV. Programme of acion A naional policy should esablish he framework for is implemenaion by giving he main goals and prioriies, as well as he sraegies o achieve hem. I should be credible: ha human and financial resources are available for carrying ou he policy. Acion planning (or programming) is he preparaion for implemenaion. An acion programme (which could also be called an acion plan) aims o ranslae ino operaional erms he policy direcions ha educaion auhoriies inend o implemen in a given ime horizon. I is a ool for clarifying o some exen he goals and sraegies in relaion o he educaion policy, programming he aciviies required, esablishing he iming, indicaing he necessary resources, disribuing insiuional and adminisraive responsibiliies, preparing he budges, ec. I is imporan o consul and negoiae wih he various developmen parners hroughou he acion planning sage if he counry is o mobilise heir suppor for plan implemenaion. Noe: I is necessary o differeniae beween an acion plan/programme and an invesmen programme which ofen deals wih he infrasrucures and equipmens o carry ou he acion plan and he recurren expendiure incurred by such invesmens. The duraion of an acion programme, in general, is five years. One of he crieria of an acion plan in order for a plan o be called acion plan - is o go beyond mere policy saemens and liss of aciviies o furher define and prioriize he acions, aciviies, and required resources in a coheren manner. These acions and resource projecions should be defined wihin a given macro-economic framework using appropriae echnical ools such as a simulaion model. 4.1. Acion planning hrough he LFA 4.1.1. Preliminary remarks In general he educaion policy framework documen concerns he whole of he educaion secor. The acion plan, which is linked o his policy framework, should also be secor-wide. Someimes, a policy saemen may concern eiher a paricular sub-secor (secondary echnical and professional educaion, for example) or a crosscuing heme (improvemen of he qualiy of educaion, for example), his wihin an overall, secor-wide developmen framework. Inasmuch as he subsecors represen fairly homogenous groups, an acion programme can be developed firs for each subsecor, hen hese programmes are assembled ino a secoral plan of acion, ensuring ha a coheren whole is produced which faihfully reflecs he policy framework. An iniial ask for hose in charge of developing an acion plan is o draw up a ypology of conceps o be used: objecives, resuls, acions, aciviies, measuremens, resources, 39

A resul-based planning handbook ec. I is necessary o achieve consensus on he conceps and heir logical arrangemen. A his sage, however, here are wo sources of variaion. 4 The numerous exising conceps: he erms vary across counries. The eam in charge of developing he acion plans mus choose is conceps and definiions. 4 The degree of deail wih which one ranscribes he policy framework in he acion plan: Experience shows ha conceps can be arranged logically ino five levels. An indicaive ypology would give he following levels: goal or general objecive (level 1), purpose or specific objecive (level 2), componen (level 3); acion (level 4) and aciviy (level 5). For each level, one will describe he expeced resuls, how hese will be measured (he verifiable indicaors), who is o ake responsibiliy and wha are he (human, physical, and financial) resources required, as illusraed below: Table 2. A ypical acion plan able Level 1. Goal or general objecive 2. Specific objecive 3. Componen 4. Acion Resul saemens Indicaor Responsibiliy Resources 5. Aciviy The foundaion of an acion plan consiss of aciviies, grouped ino acions. These laer, ineracing wih one anoher, are aimed o achieve a specific objecive. Therefore, he main par of he work is he deerminaion of acions and aciviies o achieve he policy objecives. Differen mehodologies and echniques of acion planning have been designed and used by differen counries and agencies. Among hem, his maerial has chosen o use wo insrumens ha emerged as reference ools in developing acion plans in he educaion secor: he Logical Framework Approach and simulaion modelling. In realiy, hese wo and oher approaches are used, no in isolaion bu o complemen each oher, resuling in he preparaion of a credible and coheren acion plan for educaional developmen. 4.1.2. Designing acions and heir aribues wih he Logframe Marix This secion explains how he LFA can be used in preparing an acion programme or a projec implemenaion plan. Here we assume ha we have come hrough he analyical and policy formulaion sages such as problem analysis, sakeholder analysis, objecive 40

IV. Programme of acion analysis, insiuional analysis, ec. 9 In Table 3 of he logframe marix, he policy objecives so far idenified and analysed are formulaed o fill in he corresponding boxes of goal and purpose of he firs column. Furher exercise is carried ou in order o complee he oher secions of he marix: e.g. oupus, acions, performance indicaors, ec. Table 3. Logical framework summary Narraive Summary Objecively Verifiable Indicaors Means of Verificaion Assumpions Goal Purpose Oupus Acions/Aciviies Below, five indicaive seps for esablishing and compleing a logframe marix (re Table 3) are explained: Sep 1 (Column 1): Once he overall Goal (or commonly referred o as developmen objecive) o which he plan conribues and he purpose(s) (oherwise called specific objecive) o be achieved by he plan or projec are specified, one can coninue formulaing he saemens of he firs column a oupu and aciviy levels by defining: 4 he oupus (or commonly referred o as expeced or immediae resuls) for achieving a purpose; 4 he acions or aciviies for achieving an oupu: Noe: Secion 4.2.3 explains, amongs ohers, he difference beween differen levels of resuls, e.g. oupu, oucome, ec. Sep 2 (Column 1): Since he saemens in he previous seps are logically linked, one needs o confirm ha he logic holds rue, by verifying he verical logic wih an If/hen Tes, keeping in mind he following: 4 he logical framework s srucure is based on he concep of cause and effec; 4 in a well planned logical framework, one mus be sure ha if cerain aciviies are carried ou, one can expec cerain oupus o resul. 9 For more informaion on LFA, see: DFID. 2002. Tools for Developmen: A handbook for hose engaged in developmen aciviy. London, Deparmen for Inernaional Developmen. 41

A resul-based planning handbook There should be he same logical relaionship beween he oupus and purpose, as beween he purpose and he goal. Sep 3 (Column 4): Since one is no able o conrol all of he facors relaed o any plan, one has o make some assumpions, defining hem in relaion o each level (aciviy, oupu, purpose and goal), keeping in mind he following: 4 assumpions are exernal condiions over which he plan or projec chooses no o exer or does no have conrol, bu on which he accomplishmen of objecives depends; 4 in spie of he fac ha managers are no responsible for he assumpions, hey spend a grea deal of ime rying o influence he probabiliy ha he assumpions hold rue; 4 Figure 8a oulines he If/hen Tes involving boh he firs column and he assumpions column. Figure 8a: If/hen es beween he columns of objecives and assumpions Objecives GOAL (Overall Objecive) Then Assumpions Risks and condiions Indicaors PURPOSE (Specific Objecive) Then OUTPUT (Immediae Resuls) Then ACTION (Aciviies o implemen) Risks and condiions If. and Risks and condiions If. and Risks and condiions If. and 4 Figure 8b includes a number of quesions one can ask sep by sep in order o assess wheher an assumpion exernal condiion should be included or no in he logframe. 4 The imporance of each risk and assumpion depends on (a) he probabiliy ha i will no happen, and (b) he imporance o he projec if i does no happen. If an assumpion is more or less cerain o happen and 42

IV. Programme of acion no of grea imporance o he projec s success, hen he manager does no need o worry. If, on he oher hand, he chances of he assumpion acually happening are low and i is very imporan o projec s success, he assumpion is a killer assumpion. If he risks or assumpions are oo grea, one may need o redesign he acions and sraegies. Figure 8b: Assessmen of assumpions Is he exernal condiion imporan? YES NO Will i be realized? Cerainly Possibly Unlikely Then, redesign your plan or projec by adding new aciviies and oupus, or by reformulaing your purpose if necessary THEN THEN THEN YES Do no include i in he Logframe Do no include i in he Logframe Include i as an assumpion in he Logframe Is i possible o redesign he plan or he projec in order o influence his exernal condiion? NO Then, your plan or projec is no feasible Sep 4 (Column 2): The nex sep is o define he objecively verifiable indicaors (OVIs) a he goal level, hen purpose, hen oupu, hen aciviy level, keeping in mind he following: in principle, indicaors should be saed in erms of quaniy, qualiy and ime (QQT) and someimes place. Specifying numbers and daes is called argeing; a four-sep example of consrucing an indicaor (or QQTeing an indicaor) is: firs, define a basic indicaor (e.g. increased lieracy rae); second, add quaniy (e.g. lieracy rae increased by 50%); hird, add qualiy (e.g.. funcional lieracy rae increased by 50%); fourh, add ime (e.g. funcional lieracy rae increased by 50% by 2015); aciviy level indicaors mus include means and resources involved o carry ou his aciviy. Sep 5 (Column 3): Once OVIs are defined, he final ask is o define he means of verificaion (MOV) a he goal level, hen purpose, hen oupu, hen aciviy level, keeping in mind he following: 43

A resul-based planning handbook he MOVs are he sources of informaion ha will show ha he arges have been achieved; he rule is ha he indicaors for measuring objecives mus be verifiable by some means. aciviy level means of verificaion mus include coss. By applying he above seps, one can obain he following example: Table 4: Example of a logframe marix Narraive Summary Goal: Developmen of he personaliy, inellecual independence, inegraion of individuals in heir professional lives. Purpose: Educaion for All Goals achieved hrough provision of free, compulsory and high qualiy educaion. Oupus: 1. Universal access o free and qualiy basic educaion 2. Increased coverage of early childhood programmes 3. Acions/aciviies: 1. Access o qualiy basic educaion, by ensuring ha recognized and measurable oucomes are achieved by all 2. Children in difficul circumsances have access o and are able o complee free and qualiy educaion by 2015 Objecively Verifiable Indicaors By 2015 1. Qualiy basic educaion by 200 7 and free educaion by 2015 2. 75% for age group 3-5, 100% for age group 6-7 by 2007 3. 1. Teachers and noneaching saff rained 2. Sufficien educaional maerial 3. Provision of equipmen 4. Infrasrucure refurbished; 5. ec. Means (Sources) of Verificaion Saisics School census Surveys Saisics School census Educaion expendiure Ec. Risks & Assumpions Poliical and economical sabiliy Coninued poliical commimen Budge for educaion susained Pledges of donors respeced Risks are poenial unwaned happenings. Every developmen aciviy involves risks. Risks ha maerialize can resul in failure. Risks and assumpions mus be evaluaed and, if necessary, adjusmens made in order o reduce he chance of failure. Some more explanaions are given in he Secion 4.2 wih regard o he indicaors a he level of purpose and oupus. Indicaors a he level of aciviy which consis of resources are explained in Chaper V. 44

IV. Programme of acion 4.1.3. Developing an acion plan hrough nesing of Logframes Once he Logical Framework Marix is designed hrough he Logical Framework Approach, he quesion is how in pracice we can use i in acually designing and srucuring a plan or a programme. Figure 9a races a way of designing he srucure of a plan from he upper level (Goal or developmen objecive) down o he aciviy level hrough specific objecives and acions. Figure 9a: Classical seps of acion planning 3 SPECIFIC OBEJCTIVE 1: Universal primary educaion 1 GOAL 2 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES 1, 2, 3 ACTION PROGRAMMES COMPONENTS Increased access and equiy 4 5 6 Improved qualiy and relevance Governance and managemen Acion 1 Acion 2 Acion 3 Aciviy 1 Aciviy 2 Aciviy 3 Aciviy 4 Descripive aciviy shee shee If we explain his planning srucure in ligh of he Logical Framework Approach and is hierarchy of saemens (Goal > Purpose > Oupu > Aciviy), he firs level saemen (Goal) is achieved by a combinaion of several specific objecives (purposes). The specific objecive is he arge which a programme or projec is designed o achieve as a resul of he oupus (or acions). The acions ha can be worded in erms of oupus are aimed a achieving he purpose (upper level). Aciviies are he smalles programming unis and can be grouped o form an acion. This classical process of acion planning can be faciliaed and indeed improved in qualiy by applying he LFA and is nesing echniques. Plans designed in such a way will be more logical and coheren. 45

A resul-based planning handbook Figure 9b shows he several levels of developmen planning in a counry. Le s assume ha here is a macro-plan in his counry, e.g. a muli-secor developmen plan ha we can call povery reducion and economic growh programme, which is prepared by he minisry of finance. Based on his muli-secor developmen plan, he minisry of educaion will be called o design he educaion secor developmen plan. The laer may be furher breakdown wih more deails on implemenaion sraegies ino wo separae plans of acion for formal educaion and non formal educaion. This process of declining wider developmen objecives ino specific objecives is called nesing of logframes. Figure 9b: Nesing of Logframes 1 MULTISECTORAL EDUCATION HEALTH ETC. FORMAL EDUCATION NON FORMAL ED HEALTH 1 HEALTH 2 Each of he logframes used in his nesing is he resuls of individual Logical Framework marices a differen levels of planning and managemen. In oher erms, wih his nesing echnique, decision-makers a differen levels (of decenralizaion for example) can programme concree acions and aciviies relevan o local conexs bu all conducive o achieving a common goal. As we can see in Figure 9c, he goal a he programme level (fourh column) was he acion a he muli-secor plan, oupu a he secor plan and purpose a he sub-secor plan. The oupu of his programme will become he purpose of he projec ha he insiuion in charge will prepare a he implemenaion sage of is programme. 46

IV. Programme of acion Figure 9c: Nesing of Logframes 2 MULTI SECTORAL Goal SECTORAL Purpose Goal SUB- SECTORAL Oupu Purpose Goal PROGRAMME Acion Oupu Purpose Goal PROJECT Acion Oupu Purpose Goal Acion Oupu Purpose Acion Oupu Acion In Table 5, anoher example of he nesing of logframes, he underlined exs in he Oupu boxes of he Secor level are nesed down o a lower level of oupus (programme level) and laer on o anoher lower level of oupus (componen level). In pracice, his nesing exercise should be done for he oher acions as well, which are no underlined in his example. In his example, he Goal Qualiy educaion for all children of he age group of basic educaion a Componen level was Oupu a he Secor level and Purpose a Programme/sub-secor level; he Purpose Qualiy educaion for all children leading o acquisiion of recognized level of measurable achievemens a his Componen was Acion 1 a he Secor level, Oupu a Programme/sub-secor level, bu will be Goal a Acion level; he Oupu Harmonized, modern and flexible curricula developed and implemened was Acion a he Programme/sub-secor level, will be one of he purposes a Acion level, ec.table 5. Nesing of Logical Frameworks: an exrac from an EFA Plan of Acion Table 5 ranscribed ino ex will give Box 2, which consiues an indicaive srucure of he par on he programme of acion of an educaion secor developmen plan. This Box only presens he objecive saemens as defined by he LFA. One will have o define for each level of objecive saemen, verifiable indicaors, resource requiremens, responsibiliies and a imeframe. 47

A resul-based planning handbook Box 2. Example of an indicaive srucure of an EFA plan Goal (o which he plan conribues): Conribue o he developmen of he personaliy, inellecual independence, inegraion of he individuals in he professional life in he condiions of democracy. Specific objecive (o be achieved by he plan): Educaion for All Goals achieved hrough provision of free, compulsory and high qualiy educaion Six (sub-secor/hemaic) programmes (componens of he plan): (a) ECCE; (b) Primary; (c) Secondary; (d) Higher; (e) Non-Formal; (f) Cross-cuing Acion programmes A. ECCE Programme B. Primary educaion programme A.1. Programme Objecive (Saemen and descripion of he programme) A.2. Main Lines of Acions Componen 1. Universal access o qualiy basic educaion by he year 2007 and compleion of free educaion by 2015 Acion 1: Unified, modern and flexible curricula developed and implemened Oupu 1. New curricula designed and esed for primary educaion Main Aciviy 1. Deparmen of Curriculum Deparmen srenghened (if possible, resuls, indicaors, responsibiliies, resources, imelines for each aciviy) Main Aciviy 2. Curricula for Grades 1 & 2 redesigned Main Aciviy 3. In-service raining of eachers on new curricula Main Aciviy 4. Oupu 2. New exbooks prined and disribued Oupu 3. Acion 2. Saus of eaching saff improved Acion 3. Componen 2. Children in difficul circumsances, have access o and are able o complee free and qualiy educaion by 2015 Componen 3. C. Secondary educaion Programme D. Higher educaion Programme E. Non-formal educaion programme F. Cross-cuing hemes 4.2. Planning for monioring, review and evaluaion This secion describes he main aspecs of monioring and evaluaion ha should be clarified when designing educaion policies and developmen plans or projecs. I does no deal wih he deailed arrangemens ha need o be made in conducing monioring and evaluaion during he acual implemenaion of he policies, programmes or projecs. 48

IV. Programme of acion We are all accounable for he work we do. We are accounable for he use of he resources ha we are given. We are accounable o a variey of people, bu foremos o he people and communiies we serve, hough we are also accounable o hose who provide resources. We also need o learn lessons. We need a sysem ha is reflecive and analyical, examining performance boh: 4 On an on-going day-by-day, monh-by-monh basis so ha we can change direcion and improve wha we are doing; and 4 On an occasional basis, perhaps annually or every hree years, when we can examine our effeciveness and he changes ha have occurred so ha we can build lessons from such experience ino our fuure plans. In response o hese wo needs for accounabiliy and feedback, hree main quesions should be addressed when preparing educaion developmen plans or programmes: 4 Wha can enable us o judge and measure wheher an objecive or an expeced resul is achieved and an aciviy implemened? 4 How can we assess he achievemen of an aciviy, an oupu or an objecive? 4 Wha level of resul are we going o assess? In general erms, monioring and evaluaion consiss in measuring he saus of an objecive or aciviy agains an expeced arge ha allows judgemen or comparison. This arge is an indicaor. This implies ha one has o define a he sage of planning some indicaors ha can enable measuremen wheher and how an oupu or an aciviy is delivered in comparison wih he iniial arges. The second quesion concerns how o assess he saus of each level of he programme. Your boss migh wan you o produce resuls, no maer how you achieve hem. However, you ough o care abou he use of he means ha you are given in order o aain he resuls expeced by your boss. This can be done by regular monioring of he achievemen of your aciviies. On he oher hand, you may need an exernal and objecive poin of view o assess he impac of your aciviies, which can be done by a more formal form of assessmen, an evaluaion. I is very imporan o plan M&E from he ouse: e.g. when doing a sraegic plan or planning a programme or a projec. A sysem is needed ha will help answer he quesions of: 4 Relevance: does he organizaion or projec address idenified needs? 49

Box 2. Example of an indicaive srucure of an EFA plan Secor level Goal: Developmen of human resources Purpose: Educaion for All (EFA) Goals achieved hrough provision of free, compulsory and high qualiy educaion. Oupus: 1. Access o qualiy basic educaion by 2007 and free educaion by 2015; 2. Early childhood programmes o 75% for 3-5, and o 100% for 6-7 by 2007; 3. Programme (sub-secor) level Goal: EFA achieved boh in quaniaive erms and for acual aainmen of knowledge, aiudes and skills. Purpose: Universal access o and effecive paricipaion in qualiy basic educaion. Componen level Goal: Qualiy educaion for all children of he age group of basic educaion Acion level A resul-based planning handbook 50 Acions Level 1: 1. Access o qualiy basic educaion, wih achievemen of recognized and measurable oucomes by all; 2. Children in diffi cul circumsances, complee free and qualiy educaion by 2015; Oupus: 1. Access o qualiy basic educaion, wih achievemen of recognized and measurable oucomes by all; 2. Children in difficul circumsances, complee free and qualiy educaion by 2015; 3. Purpose: Qualiy educaion for all children leading o acquisiion of recognized level of measurable achievemens Goal: Qualiy educaion o ensure ha recognized and measurable oucomes are effecively achieved by all children Acions Level 0: 1. Harmonized, modern and fl exible curricula developed and implemened; 2. Saus of eaching saff improved; Oupus: 1. Modern and flexible curricula developed and implemened; 2. Saus of eaching saff improved; 3. Purpose: Unified, modern and flexible curricula designed, piloed and implemened Acions Level -1: 1. New curricula designed and esed for primary educaion 2. New exbooks prined and disribued Oupus: 1. New curricula designed and esed for primary educaion 2.

IV. Programme of acion 4 Efficiency: are we using he available resources wisely and well? 4 Effeciveness: are he desired oupus being achieved? Is he organizaion or projec delivering he resuls i se ou o deliver? 4 Impac: have he wider goals been achieved? Wha changes have occurred ha have argeed individuals and/or communiies? 4 Susainabiliy: will he impac be susainable? Will any srucures and processes so esablished be susained? The following secions describe in more deail he above aspecs ha need o be horoughly raised, discussed and formalized when preparing a plan, a programme or a projec. However, one has o make clear from he ouse ha credible indicaors canno be consruced wihou a reliable informaion sysem. Wihou he producion of reliable saisics, he qualiy of monioring and evaluaion will be quesionable a he sage of he plan implemenaion. In oher words, one mus sar by esablishing a reliable informaion sysem in order o ensure he qualiy of he monioring and evaluaion. 10 4.2.1. Performance indicaors An indicaor is a number or raio (a value on a scale of measuremen) ha can be obained from a series of observed or calculaed facs and ha can reveal relaive changes as a funcion of ime. Indicaors are used o measure performance; hey play a crucial role in monioring and evaluaion: 4 hey specify realisic arges for measuring or judging if he objecives have been achieved 4 hey provide he basis for monioring, review and evaluaion so feeding back ino he managemen of he organisaion or projec and ino lesson learning and planning for oher subsequen work 4 he process of seing indicaors conribues o ransparency, consensus and ownership of he overall objecives and plan. Indicaors are called Objecively Verifiable Indicaors (OVIs) according o he LFA in order o emphasise ha hey are no jus subjecive judgemens; raher, hey need o be consruced so ha when differen observers measure performance, hey will come o he same conclusion. Indicaors are more likely o be objecive if hey include elemens of quaniy, qualiy and ime (QQT). The following briefly inroduces he general ypes of performance indicaors ha can be used o assess progress owards he achievemen of differen ypes of expeced resuls and o answer he quesion: How do we know wheher we are achieving/ have achieved our goal? 51

A resul-based planning handbook Direc or indirec indicaors Direc indicaors (ofen saisical). These indicaors are used for objecives ha relae o a direcly observable change resuling from aciviies and oupus. A direc indicaor is simply a more precise, comprehensive and operaional resaemen of he respecive objecive. If he expeced resul is o increase he number of professionals rained in an area over a period of ime, one should ensure ha quanified daa are colleced on a regular basis and made available for monioring, review or evaluaion. For example, if he expeced resul is o: rain over wo years 250 inspecors in educaional planning and managemen, hen he direc saisical indicaor would be simply a coun by semeser or by year of he number of hose acually rained in his field. Indirec or proxy indicaors may be used insead of, or in addiion o direc indicaors. They may be used if he achievemen of objecives: (i) is no direcly observable like he qualiy of life, organisaional developmen or insiuional capaciy; (ii) is direcly measurable only a high cos which is no jusified; (iii) is measurable only afer long periods of ime beyond he life span of he projec. However, here mus o be a prima facie connecion beween he proxy and he expeced resul. The following example illusraes how a proxy indicaor could be used o assess progress in wha migh seem o be an inangible siuaion. If he expeced resul is: greaer awareness among he general public and policy-makers abou he major challenges of he HIV/AIDS in educaion, a good proxy indicaor migh be o collec daa on he number of imes public figures spoke of hese challenges and/or he number of imes he mass media repored on hese challenges. In his case, collecing daa every six monhs would be saisfacory. In he longer erm, programme evaluaion should offer saisical daa o ascerain more accuraely he oaliy of he facors and variables a play. Qualiaive or quaniaive indicaors The QQT maxim for consrucing an indicaor generally works well. Bu is rigid applicaion can resul in performance and change, ha is difficul o quanify or o be given appropriae value. Tha a change may be difficul o quanify or ha he analysis of qualiaive daa may no be sraighforward, are no reasons o sweep hem under he carpe. Special effor and aenion needs o be given o devising qualiaive indicaors. A balance of indicaors is needed, wih some ha focus on he quaniaive and ohers on qualiaive aspecs. Quaniaive indicaors may relae o: 4 he frequency of meeings, 4 he number of people involved 4 growh raes 4 he inakes of inpus; e.g. grans, buildings, eachers 4 he adopion and implemenaion of he oupus, ec. 52

IV. Programme of acion In many insances where he expeced resul may be qualiaive (change of aiudes, capaciy building, ec), a non-saisical approach may be he only way possible o develop an indicaion of progress. Qualiaive indicaors largely focus on he process of change - asking sakeholders wha hey did as a resul of heir paricipaion in aciviies. This echnique works especially well in insances where raining seminars and workshops are he pursued oupus. However, when dealing wih sakeholders, care needs o be aken o avoid a focus simply on saisfacion. Raher, he focus should be on wha happened as a resul of he paricipaion. I should also be noed ha narraive indicaors can seldom be quanified easily over he shor erm. Qualiaive indicaors relae o: 4 he level of paricipaion of a sakeholder group 4 sakeholder opinions and saisfacion 4 aesheic judgemens; e.g. ase, exure, colour, size, shape, ec. 4 decision-making abiliy 4 he emergence of leadership 4 he abiliy o self-monior 4 aiudinal and behavioural changes 4 evidence of consensus. Qualiaive indicaors are someimes called narraive indicaors. The following example illusraes how narraive indicaors could be used. If he expeced resul is o Enhance provincial capaciies for organizaion and managemen of non-formal educaion, hen a valid narraive indicaor migh be hrough a follow-up quesionnaire o be circulaed among hose individuals who paricipaed in raining aciviies o ask hem wha hey did in heir provinces as a resul of he acions of he Minisry of Educaion. Such a quesionnaire should no be a survey of clien saisfacion. I should ask: Wha did you do as a resul of your paricipaion in he raining workshop? I could be sen ou o sakeholders several imes a leas once a year - in order o develop a baseline and hus begin o assess he coninuum of change. I may be ha oral inerviews could be used in lieu of a formal wrien response. Narraive indicaors enable an organizaion o assess he inerconnecion of facors wihou recourse o exremely expensive saisical research. In his way, one could demonsrae parial success even if oher facors may have prevened he overall enhancemen of naional capaciy. This example also illusraes how a proxy indicaor could be combined wih a narraive indicaor. In his case, a reliable proxy indicaor migh be he number of new non-formal educaion cenres. The proxy has no measured enhanced capaciy ; raher i has shown he impac. 10 Carrizo e al. 2003. Informaion ools for he preparaion and monioring of educaion plans. 53

A resul-based planning handbook 4.2.2. Three classificaions of evaluaion Depending on he naure of a programme and he purpose of an evaluaion, here are differen classificaions of evaluaion. The firs classificaion can be made depending on who s conducing he evaluaion: 4 inernal (when he evaluaion concerns a programme implemened enirely wihin an insiuion, is carried ou by he persons belonging o he same insiuion as hose managing he programme, someimes in cooperaion wih he assisance of exernal evaluaors); 4 self-evaluaion (is a form of inernal evaluaion done by hose who implemen he programme); or 4 exernal (when he evaluaion concerns a programme whose implemenaion involves persons from ouside he insiuion, ofen carried ou by evaluaors independen of he insiuion). The second classificaion is made depending on he use of evaluaion. An evaluaion can be: 4 formaive (because is main goal is generally o correc he course aken by a programme and is resuls are usually inended for hose implemening i. Someimes called mid-erm evaluaion because i is carried while he programme is sill being implemened); 4 summaive (because i leads o conclusions abou he value of he programme so ha lessons can be learn for he fuure. I is called end-of-programme evaluaion); or 4 ex-pos (because i is conduced some ime afer he compleion of he programme in order o draw conclusions on he impac and susainabiliy of he programme. I is anoher form of summaive evaluaion.) The following hree ypes of evaluaion form he hird classificaion ha is being widely used in programme evaluaion. However, i is recommended ha some flexibiliy is applied when conducing he ypes of evaluaion described below in combinaion wih hose menioned above. These hree ypes are: monioring, review and evaluaion. 54

IV. Programme of acion Monioring: I is no an evaluaion per se, bu is a process whereby he progress of aciviies is regularly and coninuously observed and analysed in order o ensure ha he expeced resul is achieved. I is done by regular collecion and analysis of informaion for checking he performance of he programme aciviies. Monioring is usually done inernally by hose who are responsible for he execuion of aciviies (programme managers) in order o assess: wheher and how inpus (resources) are being used; wheher and how well planned aciviies are being carried ou or compleed; and wheher oupus are being produced as planned. Monioring focuses on efficiency, ha is he use of resources, especially a he aciviy (and someimes a he oupu level). G P O A Major daa and informaion sources for monioring are: financial accouns and also inernal documens such as mission repors, monhly/quarerly repors, raining records, minues of meeings, ec. Review, as for monioring, is a ask performed usually by hose who are responsible for he aciviies, bu i is a more subsanial form of monioring, carried ou less frequenly, e.g. annually or a he compleion of a phase. Ofen called mid-erm review, is resuls are designed for hose who are implemening he aciviies as well as he providers of funds. Reviews can be used o adjus, improve or correc he course of programme aciviies. Review focuses, in paricular, on effeciveness and relevance. I assesses wheher he aciviies have delivered he expeced oupus and he laer are producing he expeced oucomes, in oher words wheher here is indicaion ha he oupus are conribuing o he purpose of he projec or programme. Key daa and informaion sources for review are ypically boh inernal and exernal documens, such as annual saus repors, survey repors, naional saisics (e.g. saisical yearbooks), consulans repors, ec. G P O A 55

A resul-based planning handbook Evaluaion in many organisaions is a general erm used o include review. Oher organisaions use i in he more resriced sense of a comprehensive examinaion of he oupus of a programme, how i conribues o he purposes and goals of he programme. Evaluaions are usually carried ou boh by insiders (hose belonging o he same insiuion as he programme managers) and ousiders (exernal evaluaors) in order o help decision makers and oher sakeholders o learn lessons and apply hem in fuure programmes. Evaluaions focus, in paricular, on impac and susainabiliy. Evaluaions may ake place: a he end of a projec phase or a he compleion of a projec (erminal or summaive evaluaions) o assess immediae impac; and/or beyond he end of he projec (ex-pos evaluaions) o assess he longer-erm impac of he projec and is susainabiliy. Key daa and informaion sources for evaluaion are boh inernal and exernal. They may include annual saus repors, review repors, consulans repors, naional and inernaional saisics, impac assessmen repors, ec. The following able describes in a comparaive way he differences beween hese hree ypes of evaluaion. Table 6: Comparison beween monioring, review and evaluaion When is i done? Wha is measured? Who is involved? Wha sources of informaion are used? Who uses he resuls? How are he resuls used? Monioring Review Evaluaion Coninuous hroughou he life of a programme or projec Checks mainly efficiency inpus and processes o produce oupus Generally only insiders involved Occasional mid-way or a he end of a phase of programme or projec Checks he effeciveness and relevance of an objecive or a programme Involves insiders, wih ousiders Typically inernal documens. Boh inernal and exernal documens such as half-year or annual repors, saus repors, inernal saisics, ec. Managers and saff are he main users of he informaion gahered Decision-making resuls in minor correcive changes Many people use he informaion e.g. managers, saff, donors, beneficiaries Decision-making may resul in changes in sraegies and modaliies G P O A Occasional a he end or beyond he end of a phase or programme Checks he longer erm impac and susainabiliy of he objecives and goals Involves ousiders, wih insiders Boh inernal and exernal, e.g. review repors, consulans repors, naional and inernaional saisics, ec. Many people use he informaion e.g. managers, saff, donors, beneficiaries, oher organizaions Decision-making may resul in major changes in policies, sraegies and fuure work 56

IV. Programme of acion Source: Adaped from Cenre for Inernaional Developmen and Training (CIDT), Universiy of Wolverhampon 4.2.3. Objecs of monioring and evaluaion As described above, depending on he purpose and ypes of evaluaion, he focus of evaluaion can be differen. This secion explains he objecs and focuses ha are discussed and hough of on monioring and evaluaion during he phase of he preparaion of a plan or a programme. Like any oher sysem, he educaion secor has inpus, processes, oupus and oucomes as show in he figure below. These are he main objecs of monioring and evaluaion. Figure 10: Educaion sysem and is environmen Environmen Inpus Process Oupus Oucomes Environmen Inpus are human, financial and oher resources necessary for producing oupus and achieving resuls. In he educaion sysem, hey are eachers, equipmen, buildings, exbooks, ec. These inpus go hrough a process (hroughpu) where hey are mixed (inpu mix), combined and/or moved along o achieve resuls. Oupus are he producs and services ha are generaed as he angible resuls in carrying ou he planned aciviies. In an educaion sysem, hey are, for example, he graduaes and he knowledge acquired during heir sudies. Producing an oupu by iself can be meaningless. Such oupus are sough for he purpose of conribuing o he achievemen of an oucome. Oucomes are he effecs of uilizing he oupus. They are he overall changes in siuaions and/or benefis for he sudens, heir families and/or he sociey as well, ha can be qualiaive and/or quaniaive. For example, in he educaion secor, hey are he gains ha he graduaes from an educaion level can acually obain hanks o he knowledge hey acquired a school. Sysems are ofen analyzed in erms of relevance, efficiency, effeciveness, impac and susainabiliy: for example, one can wonder wheher he inpus o he educaion sysem are relevan for addressing idenified needs, o wha exen he processes uilizaion of resources - are efficien, and how far he anicipaed oupus are effecively produced. Oucomes and resuls will be analyzed in erms of heir impac and susainabiliy. These are he focuses of monioring and evaluaion. 57

A resul-based planning handbook Figure 11: The relaionship beween relevance, efficiency, and effeciveness. Effeciveness Efficiency Needs Objecives Resources Oupus & Oucomes Hypoheical Relevance Real Relevance Relevance can be hypoheical or real: 4 Hypoheical relevance is defined in relaion o needs, e.g. wheher a goal, an objecive or an expeced resul of a programme or projec reflecs he acual needs of he beneficiaries or no. This is he focus of evaluaion when appraising a programme before is approval, and someimes during he programme review. 4 Real relevance measures he exen o which he oupus produced and/or oucomes achieved respond o he needs of he populaion. This is he focus of evaluaion when conducing a programme review, mos ofen during a programme evaluaion. Efficiency describes he relaion beween he quaniy of he oupus (producs and services) produced and he quaniy of resources used o produce hem. Uni or average cos is ofen used o express he efficiency. This is he focus of evaluaion during programme monioring and review, and someimes during programme evaluaion. Effeciveness describes he exen o which an objecive has been achieved. In oher words, i measures he level of achievemen of an objecive (or an expeced resul) of a programme or projec pursued and of he effecs (oupus and oucomes) achieved. This is he focus of evaluaion during he programme review, and mos ofen during he programme evaluaion. Impacs are he effecs on he populaion and he environmen by he pursui and he achievemen of an objecive. The acion involved in he pursui of an objecive can change a siuaion in boh predicable and unpredicable ways. Susainabiliy is he exen o which he benefis delivered and changes brough abou by a programme or a projec coninue afer is compleion. Programme evaluaion, and projec review in a lesser exen, focus on impac and susainabiliy. 58

Chaper V. Esimaion of coss 5.1. Coss/resources a he aciviy level According o he Logical Framework Approach, aciviy level indicaors and means of verificaion are usually he acual inpus and budges required o implemen hese aciviies. As we can see in Figure 12, he indicaors a he aciviy or acion level are he inpus for carrying ou he aciviies such as he number of people o be rained, he number of buildings o consruc, he number of maerials o produce and disribue, while he means of verificaion a his level are he acual coss incurred o mobilize hese inpus or resources. Aciviies are usually broken down according o who is responsible for implemenaion. There should be in principle as many aciviies as here are responsible unis in order o increase heir accounabiliy in he execuion of heir aciviy. Differen caegories of inpus or resources needed o implemen each aciviy should be specified. Progress can be moniored agains he associaed resources, budge and he schedule. Figure 12. Indicaors and means of verificaion a he aciviy level of Logframe Objecives GOAL PURPOSE OUTPUT Objecively verifiable indicaors Wha will indicae objecively if: he overall objecive he specific objecive he oupu is achieved? Means of verificaion How o verify he achievemen of: he overall objecive he specific objecive he oupu? ACTION This is abou inpus (MEANS), for example: number of people rained number of expers recruied number of buildings ec. This is abou financial resources (COSTS) Usually he classificaion of financial resources should follow he accouning regulaions and pracices in place in he concerned counries or insiuions. For example, across he Unied Naions Sysem, here are harmonized budge iems ha are classified by naure of expendiure. This forma, presened below, is used by UNESCO as well when preparing and implemening a developmen projec. There are also esablished norms and sandards in erms of uni coss ha should be considered (or referred o) when 59

A resul-based planning handbook calculaing he budgeary requiremens. Table 7. The budge able forma used by UNESCO Toal 2003 2004 BL Descripion w/m $ w/m $ w/m $ 10 PROJECT PERSONNEL 11 Inernaional consulans 13 Adminisraive suppor personnel 15 Local ravel 16 Mission coss 17 Naional professionals 20 SUB-CONTRACTS 21.01 Subconrac 1 21.02 Subconrac 2 21.0X Subconrac X 30 TRAINING 31 Fellowships 32 Sudy visis 33 Local raining and workshops 40 EQUIPMENT 45.01 Expendable 45.02 Non-expendable 50 MISCELLANEOUS 51 Sundries 52 Reporing coss 53 Miscellaneous 90 TOTAL 99 Projec oal Agency suppor coss (13%) 999 TOTAL including suppor coss The budge iems ha are used by minisries of educaion are in general much more complex. They are ofen he combinaion of he differen classificaions by naure, by level of educaion and by funcion. The following is an indicaive example of he budge able of broad caegories of expendiure used by naional educaional adminisraions: 60

V. Esimaion of coss Table 8. An indicaive budge able forma in he educaion secor 1. Primary educaion 2. Secondary educaion 3. Higher educaion X. Cross-cuing Recurren coss Recurren coss Recurren coss Adminisraion Teachers (Wage, ec.) Teachers (Wage, ec.) Teachers (Wage, ec.) Caegory 1 Caegory 1 Caegory 1 Caegory 2 Caegory 2 Caegory 2 Caegory 3 Caegory 3 Caegory 3 Caegory X Caegory X Caegory X Oher Saff Coss Oher Saff Coss Oher Saff Coss Training Training Training Admin. & supervision Admin. & supervision Admin. & supervision Workers & ohers Workers & ohers Workers & ohers Educaional maerial Educaional maerial Educaional maerial Texbooks Texbooks Texbooks Teaching guides Teaching guides Teaching guides Oher running coss Oher running coss Oher running coss Mainenance Mainenance Mainenance Elecriciy, waer and heaing Elecriciy, waer and heaing Elecriciy, waer and heaing Miscellaneous Miscellaneous Miscellaneous S/Toal S/Toal S/Toal Capial coss Capial coss Capial coss Consrucions Consrucions Consrucions Equipmen Equipmen Equipmen Oher Oher Oher Toal Primary Toal Secondary Toal Higher While he cosing of he aciviies for a specific programme or projec may be relaively easy if he budgeing elemens and crieria are already in place, he budgeing of an educaion acion plan can be much complex, especially when i involves making he projecion of several years expendiure. Differen echniques, specific o each counry s conexs, exis. Oher echniques have recenly emerged like he mid-erm expendiure framework (MTEF) in some counries. 61

A resul-based planning handbook In any case, a credible muli-year projecion of resources can be hardly esimaed wihou a compuerized simulaion model. Secion 5.2 and Annex 3 elaborae on he purpose and use of he simulaion echniques for he design of policy opions, he formulaion of an educaion developmen plan and he evaluaion of he required muliyear educaional expendiure. 5.2. Budgeing hrough simulaion echniques As early as he plan s preparaion phase, simulaions can enable upsream forecass of recurren expendiure and invesmens for he educaion secor in accordance wih educaional policy orienaions. The governmen, as a resul, can have advance informaion on he annual coss for implemening is reform and developmen plan, foresee budgeary gaps in relaion o he Sae financing in a given period, and idenify he fields for which addiional invesmens should be sough from he naional privae secor and/or from exernal parners. Simulaion modelling conribues o and benefis from he medium erm expendiure frameworks (MTEFs). MTEF aims o ensure he consisency of he budgeary allocaions wih overall fiscal objecives and domesic resources and hus o improve he realism of secor budges. Is significance is paricularly imporan in many developing counries where a large gap beween saed policies and acual domesic resources ofen leads o ad hoc budge cus in plan implemenaion. Based on he MTEF budge ceiling for he secor, educaion simulaion model forecass he domesic resources likely o be available for he educaion secor, anicipaes heir use by budge caegory and order of prioriy and in urn conribues o fine-uning he secor expendiure framework in consisency wih overall macro-economic and fiscal perspecives. Subsequen use is faciliaion in seing up annual and muli-annual budges, ha is o say, he shor-erm echnical and financial programming of adminisraive and financial acions. The formulaion of shor-erm objecives over one or wo years is carried ou on he basis of he achievemens and forecass of he acion plan. The simulaion makes i possible o specify new anicipaed achievemens and heir coss, which faciliaes he programming of recurren and capial expendiure. Esimaes of naional annual expendiure are provided by level of educaion and by caegory of expendiure. According o he level of de-concenraion and/or decenralisaion, such expendiure can be disaggregaed by region, by educaion level and by ype and caegory of expendiure. Naional auhoriies, aking ino accoun he objecives and he poenial for developmen of each region, can ake correcive measures necessary o balance budgeary programming. A he ime of shor-erm budgeing, i is necessary for he simulaion model o ake ino accoun significan parameers which have an impac on he cos of educaion, such as inflaion, salary increases and he cos of educaional goods and services. However, 62

V. Esimaion of coss a simulaion model is a ool which can help foresee he probable evoluion of an educaion sysem in he more or less disan fuure by means of a more or less limied number of baseline daa and hypoheses of developmen. The simulaed resuls will be probable, bu no sure, because he fuure of a sysem also depends on unforeseen hazards and uncerainies which have an impac on he evoluion of phenomena. This explains he need o updae he baseline daa and parameers as he implemenaion of he developmen programme advances. The baseline daa and he hypoheses reained for he developmen of he simulaion model are ineviably limied in number and consequenly can no ake ino accoun all he parameers, be hey idenified or no, which regulae he evoluion of an educaional sysem. 63

Bibliographical references AusAID. 2001. AusGUIDELines: 1. The Logical Framework Approach. Canberra. Las Updaed 2003 by AusAID, Ausralian Governmen. BRADFORD, R.W., DUNCAN, J.P., TARCY, B. 1999. Simplifi ed Sraegic Planning: A No-Nonsense Guide for Busy People Who Wan Resuls Fas!. Chandler House Press (ISBN: 1886284466). BRYSON, J. M. 1995. Sraegic Planning for Public and Nonprofi Organizaions: A Guide o Srenghening and Susaining Organizaional Achievemen, Revised Ediion. Minneapolis, USA. CARRIZO, L., SAUVAGEOT, C. BELLA, N. 2003. Informaion ools for he preparaion and monioring of educaion plans. Paris, UNESCO. (Educaion policies and sraegies 5, ED-2003/WS/42). CHANG, G. C.; RADI, M. 2001. Educaional planning hrough compuer simulaion. Paris, UNESCO. (Educaion policies and sraegies 3, ED-2001/WS/36). CIDT. Projec Cycle Managemen: Indicaors and Means of Verifi caion. Cenre for Inernaional Developmen and Training (CIDT), Universiy of Wolverhampon DFID. 2002. Tools for Developmen: A handbook for hose engaged in developmen aciviy. London, Deparmen for Inernaional Developmen. European Commission. 2001. Manual Projec Cycle Managemen. Brussels, European Commission. (Evaluaion Uni of he EuropeAid Co-operaion Office). JALLADE, L.; RADI, M.; CUENIN, S. 2001. Naional policies and programmes and inernaional cooperaion: Wha role for UNESCO? Paris, UNESCO. (Educaion policies and sraegies 1, ED-2001/WS/5.). LAVERGNE, R.; ALBA, A. 2003. CIDA Primer on Program-Based Approaches, Prepared by Analysis and Research Division, Policy Branch wih conribuions from oher CIDA saff (Updaed on Sep. 27, 2003), CIDA. UNESCO. 1997. Guide méhodologique pour l élaboraion des plans d acion au PRODEC Mali. Paris, UNESCO. (Training maerial). UNESCO ED/EPS/NED. 2005. EPSSim 2.1: User s Guide. Paris, UNESCO. (Educaion policies and sraegies 3a, ED-2005/WS/17). THE WORLD BANK. 1998. Public Expendiure Managemen Handbook. Washingon, D.C. The World Bank. 64

ANNEXES Annex 1. Main aspecs o be analyzed for a diagnosis of he educaion secor In a secor analysis, he educaion sysem is analysed in differen angles or aspecs, which include, bu are no limied o: Macro-economic and social frameworks of he counry Saus of suden flows Qualiy of educaion Exernal efficiency Coss and financing of educaion Managerial and insiuional aspecs. The following paragraphs describe he main feaures of hese aspecs as well as he principal indicaors commonly used o diagnose and characerise he educaion secor. A. Macro-economic and social frameworks The characerisics of a counry can be sudied mainly by carrying ou, bu no limied o, analyses of demographic (general and school-relaed) daa, he macro-economic and budgeary conex, he socio-culural environmen and he poliical and insiuional srucures and frameworks. Demography This involves analyzing he demographic aspecs of a leas he las wo years and he probable changes in he coming years (noably he period of programming of he plan), no only in he oal populaion of he counry, bu also in he school-age populaion. I is necessary o have he demographic daa by specific age and by gender, in paricular for he school-age populaion a pre-school, primary, and secondary levels. I is also necessary o analyze he characerisics which can affec he organizaion and he operaion of he educaion sysem, as for example, he job and human resources marke, rural exodus, migraion, HIV/AIDS, ec. Macro-economic and budgeary framework This is abou analyzing he pas rends and he possible developmens of naional produciviy (GDP, GNP), domesic revenues, and he share of educaion in oal public expendiure. Counries dependen on exernal financing should examine he presen siuaion and he probable evoluion of exernal resources, such as deb and deb servicing, grans and loans for he educaion secor, as well as direc echnical assisance. In pracice, many of hese counries carry ou his analysis wih help of 65

A resul-based planning handbook donor and lending agencies in he conex of mid-erm expendiure framework (MTEF) processes, secor invesmen programmes (SIPs), SWAps, or more recenly Educaion for All Fas Track Iniiaive (FTI). Here, i is imporan o do a careful and deailed analysis of he inervenions of exernal bilaeral and mulilaeral agencies which are carried ou in he form of projecs, direc financing of naional budge or in he framework of programmes called HIPCs, PRSP, ec. On he basis of macro-economic daa and informaion provided by agencies dealing wih cenral planning and finance, educaion minisries will analyse some of he following macro-economic and budgeary indicaors: Public expendiure on educaion as percenage of gross naional produc (%GNP): Toal public expendiure on educaion (curren and capial) expressed as a percenage of he Gross Naional Produc (GNP) in a given financial year. I is calculaed by dividing oal public expendiure on educaion in a given financial year by he GNP of he counry for he corresponding year. (Inerpreaion: In principle a high percenage of GNP devoed o public expendiure on educaion denoes a high level of aenion given o invesmen in educaion by he governmen; and vice versa.) Public expendiure on educaion as percenage of oal governmen expendiure (%PXE): Toal public expendiure on educaion (curren and capial) expressed as a percenage of oal governmen expendiure in a given financial year. I is calculaed by dividing oal public expendiure on educaion incurred by all governmen agencies/deparmens in a given financial year by he oal governmen expendiure for he same financial year. (Inerpreaion: A higher percenage of governmen expendiure on educaion shows a high governmen policy prioriy for educaion relaive o he perceived value of oher public invesmens, including defence and securiy, healh care, social securiy for unemploymen and elderly, and oher social or economic secors.) Formula: PXE %GNP = GNP Where: % GNP = Percenage public expendiure on educaion in financial year. PXE = Toal Public expendiure on Educaion in financial year. GNP = Gross Naional Produc in financial year. Formula: PXE %PXE = TPX Where: % PXE = Public expendiure on educaion as a percenage of oal governmen expendiure in financial year. PXE = Toal public expendiure on educaion in financial year. TPX = Toal governmen expendiure in financial year. 66

Annexes Percenage disribuion of public curren expendiure on educaion by level (%PCXE): Public curren expendiure for each level of educaion, expressed as a percenage of oal public curren expendiure on educaion. I is calculaed by dividing public curren expendiure devoed o each level of educaion by he oal public curren expendiure on educaion. (Inerpreaion: Relaively high percenage of curren expendiure devoed o a specific level of educaion denoes he prioriy given o ha level in naional educaional policy and resource allocaion. When inerpreing his indicaor, one may also ake ino accoun he corresponding disribuion of enrolmen by level and hen assess he relaive curren expendiure per suden.) Public curren expendiure per pupil (suden) as % of GNP per capia (%PCXE/ GNP per capia): Public curren expendiure per pupil (or suden) a each level of educaion, expressed as a percenage of GNP per capia in a given financial year. I is calculaed by dividing per pupil public curren expendiure on each level of educaion in a given year by he GNP per capia for he same year. (Inerpreaion: A high percenage figure for his indicaor denoes a high share of per capia income being spen on each pupil/suden in a specified level of educaion. I represens a measure of he financial cos per pupil/suden in relaion o average per capia income.) Formula: PCXEh % PCXEh = n PCXEh h= 1 Where: % PCXE h = Percenage public curren expendiures on level of educaion h in financial year. PCXE h = Toal public curren expendiures on level of educaion h in financial year. Formula: PCXE GNP h % PCXE h, GNPc = / E P Where: % PCXE h, GNPc = Public curren expendiure per pupil of educaion level h as percenage of GNP per capia in financial year PCXE h = Public curren expendiure on educaion level h in financial year GNP = Gross Naional Produc in financial year E h = Toal enrolmen in educaion level h in school-year h P = Toal naional populaion in year. 67

A resul-based planning handbook Public curren expendiure on educaion as percenage of oal public expendiure on educaion (%PCXE): Public curren expendiure on educaion expressed as a percenage of oal public expendiure on educaion (curren and capial) in a given financial year. I is calculaed by dividing public curren expendiure on educaion in a given financial year by he oal public expendiure on educaion for he same financial year. (Inerpreaion: A high percenage of public curren expendiure on educaion reflecs he need o devoe a large share of public funding o mainain he educaion sysem operaions, aking ino accoun curren and projeced changes in enrolmen, in he salary levels of educaional personnel and in oher operaional coss. The difference beween his percenage and 100 reflecs he proporion of public expendiure on educaion devoed o capial expendiure.) Socio-culural analysis This is he secion which is ofen forgoen or someimes avoided in a secor analysis. This concerns in paricular: he demographic composiion, he sociological and religious srucure, he counry's culural radiions which can have an impac on he social demand for educaion, he schooling and he school performance of minoriies, and of girls/boys, ec. Box 2 presens an example of he socioculural aspecs ha were examined for he Educaion Secor Analysis in a counry. This socio-culural analysis shed ligh on he hisorical, social and poliical backgrounds of he counry s educaion sysem ha have affeced he naional educaion sysem in he pas and ha should be aken ino accoun when designing policies and sraegies for he fuure of he educaional developmen in his counry. Formula: PCXE %PCXE = TPXE Where: % PCXE = Percenage public curren expendiure on educaion in financial year. PCXE = Toal public curren expendiure on educaion in financial year. TPXE = Toal public expendiure in financial year. Box 2: Example of he aspecs covered for a socio-culural analysis Par A: Socio-poliical conex of educaion 1. Evoluion of he Federal Republic (Pre-Colonizaion; Colonizaion; The Naional Quesion and Is Roo; Beginning of Federalism; Conflics and Crises; Miliary Coups, Miliary Rule and he Civil War) 2. The Three Fundamenal Educaional Tradiions (Indigenous educaion; Islamic Educaion; Wesern Educaion) [ ] 68

Annexes Poliico-insiuional analysis The aspecs of insiuional, poliical and erriorial organizaion are likely o have an impac on he educaion services of a counry. I involves he analysis of he funcioning mode of he Sae and local/public auhoriies (cenralized or decenralized sysems, ec), bu also he reforms in view and heir likely consequences for he educaion sysem. The role and responsibiliies of he differen planning and managemen auhoriies should be analyzed in order o show heir srenghs and weaknesses and idenify he pahs o follow o remedy possible managemen problems in he educaion secor. Wih regard o he insiuional analysis of he educaion secor, Secion F of his Annexe describes he managerial and insiuional aspecs ha need o be examined in a secor analysis. B. Saus of suden flows Access and paricipaion a each level of educaion nernal efficiency Dispariies in educaion Access and paricipaion This secion of he educaion secor analysis analyses educaion coverage by level and ype of educaion according o he srucure of he educaion sysem (a all levels and across all ypes of educaion), including he provision of educaion by public, semipublic, privae or communiy schools, ec. Analysis is carried ou of presen rends building on an examinaion of pas endencies. One can presen he evoluion of he numbers of sudens and inake raes, ne and gross enrolmen raios by level, and analyze he disribuion and evoluion of school enrolmens in differen ypes of schools. The analysis of he ransiion o differen levels of educaion (o general, echnical and professional educaion a secondary and higher levels, for example) could be conduced from he perspecive of he possible raionalizaion of he educaion sysem according o he job marke and rends in economic developmen. The analysis of access o and paricipaion in educaion should be carried ou in erms of supply and demand. This means finding ou if access and schooling are more limied by incomplee supply, by deficien demand, or by hese wo facors a once. For example, children may no have access o educaion because here are no schools in heir village or here is no enough space a school, or hey may no wish o go o school for differen reasons. This invesigaion will allow he forward idenificaion of appropriae sraegies o increase schooling, by enlarging he school supply, by sirring up social demand for educaion or by improving he school environmen and he relevance of schooling o some sub-groups of populaion. To achieve his, i is necessary o organize household surveys and o use heir findings fully, in order o idenify he real causes and possible 69

A resul-based planning handbook correcive measures. Below are presened some main indicaors ha are used o measure access o and paricipaion in educaion. Access o educaion can be defined as he exen o which he school-age populaion is able o access he firs grade of a paricular level or cycle of educaion. The mos commonly used indicaors o measure his aspec of he educaion secor are: (i) he apparen inake rae; (ii) he ne inake rae; (iii) he ransiion rae; and (iv) he regisraion rae. Apparen inake rae (AIR): Toal number of new enrans in he firs grade of primary educaion, regardless of age, expressed as a percenage of he populaion a he official primary school-enrance age. I can be calculaed by dividing he number of new enrans in grade 1, irrespecive of age, by he populaion of official school-enrance age. Formula: Where: AIR = N P a AIR = Apparen Inake Rae in school-year N = Number of new enrans in he firs grade of primary educaion, in school-year P a = Populaion of official primary school enrance-age a, in school-year. Ne inake rae (NIR): New enrans in he firs grade of primary educaion who are of he official primary school-enrance age, expressed as a percenage of he populaion of he same age. I can be calculaed by dividing he number of children of official primary school-enrance age who ener he firs grade of primary educaion by he populaion of he same age. Formula: N a NIR = Where: Pa NIR = Ne Inake Rae in school-year. a N = Number of children of official primary school-enrance age a who ener he firs grade of primary educaion, in school-year. a P = Populaion of official primary school-enrance age a, in school-year. 70

Annexes Transiion rae (TR): The number of pupils (or sudens) admied o he firs grade of a higher level of educaion in a given year, expressed as a percenage of he number of pupils (or sudens) enrolled in he final grade of he lower level of educaion in he previous year. I can be calculaed by dividing he number of new enrans in he firs grade of he specified higher cycle or level of educaion by he number of pupils who were enrolled in he final grade of he preceding cycle or level of educaion in he previous school year. Regisraion rae (RR): The number of sudens admied o he firs grade of a cycle or level of educaion in a given year, expressed as a percenage of he number of sudens graduaed from he final grade of he lower cycle or level of educaion in he previous year. I can be calculaed by dividing he number of new enrans in he firs grade of he specified cycle or level of educaion by he number of sudens who had graduaed from he final grade of he preceding cycle or level of educaion in he previous school year. (N.B. This rae is differen from he ransiion rae. I can be considered as an inake rae, bu for oher levels han he primary educaion level, in ha i calculaes he number of new enrans o he firs grade of any non-primary educaion level as percenage of he heoreical eligible populaion, i.e., hose who graduaed from he preceding educaion level.) Formula: TR h,h +1 Where: TR h h 1 = E +1 +1 h +1,1 R h +1,1 E h,n, + =Transiion rae (from cycle or level of educaion h o h+1 in school year ) + 1 E h+ 1,1 = number of pupils enrolled in he firs grade a level of educaion h+1 in schoolyear +1 + 1 R h+ 1,1 = number of pupils repeaing he firs grade a level of educaion h+1 in schoolyear +1 E h, n = number of pupils enrolled in final grade n a level of educaion h in school year. Formula : I h+ 1,1 RRh, h+ 1 = 1 Gh, n Where: RR h h 1, + = Regisraion rae (from a cycle or level of educaion h o anoher h+1 a a school year ) I h+ 1, 1 = Number of new enrans o Grade 1 of he cycle or level of educaion h+1 a a school year 1 G h, n = Number of graduaes from he las grade n of a cycle or level of educaion h a a school year -1 Paricipaion in educaion can be defined as he exen o which he school-age populaion is able o pursue is sudies as far as possible, ideally o he compleion of he level concerned. The mos commonly used indicaors o measure his aspec of he educaion secor are: (i) gross enrolmen raio; (ii) ne enrolmen raio; (iii) age-specific enrolmen raio. 71

A resul-based planning handbook Gross enrolmen raio (GER): Toal enrolmen in a specific level of educaion, regardless of age, expressed as a percenage of he eligible official school-age populaion corresponding o he same level of educaion in a given school-year. I is calculaed by dividing he number of pupils (or sudens) enrolled in a given level of educaion regardless of age by he populaion of he age-group which officially corresponds o he given level of educaion. (Inerpreaion: A high GER generally indicaes a high degree of paricipaion, wheher he pupils belong o he official age-group or no. A GER value of 100 percen indicaes ha a counry is, in principle, able o accommodae all of is school-age populaion, bu i does no indicae he proporion already enrolled. The achievemen of a GER of 100 percen is herefore a necessary bu no sufficien condiion for enrolling all eligible children in school. When he GER exceeds 90 percen for a paricular level of educaion, he aggregae number of places for pupils is approaching he number required for universal access of he official age-group. However, his is a meaningful inerpreaion only if one can expec he under-aged and over-aged enrolmens o decline in he fuure in order o free places for pupils from he expeced age-group.) Formula: GERh Where: h h, a E = P GER h = Gross Enrolmen Raio a level of educaion h in school-year E h = Enrolmen a he level of educaion h in school-year P h, a = Populaion in age-group a which officially corresponds o he level of educaion h in school-year 72

Annexes Ne enrolmen raio (NER): enrolmen of he official age-group for a given level of educaion expressed as a percenage of he corresponding populaion. I is calculaed by dividing he number of pupils enrolled who are of he official age-group for a given level of educaion by he populaion for he same age-group. (Inerpreaion: A high NER denoes a high degree of paricipaion of he official school-age populaion. The heoreical maximum value is 100%. Increasing raios can be considered as reflecing improving paricipaion a he specified level of educaion. When he NER is compared wih he GER he difference beween he wo raios highlighs he incidence of underaged and over-aged enrolmen. If he NER is below 100%, hen his provides a measure of he proporion of children no enrolled a he specified level of educaion. However, since some of hese children/youh could be enrolled a oher levels of educaion, his difference should in no way be considered as indicaing he percenage of sudens no enrolled. A more precise complemenary indicaor is he age-specific enrolmen raio (ASER) which shows he paricipaion of he populaion of a paricular age in educaion.) Formula: NER Where: h = E P h, a h, a NER h = Ne Enrolmen Raio a level of educaion h in school-year E h, a = Enrolmen of he populaion of agegroup a a level of educaion h in school-year P h, a = Populaion in age-group a, which officially corresponds o level of educaion h in school-year 73

A resul-based planning handbook Age-specific enrolmen raio (ASER): Percenage of he populaion of a specific age enrolled, irrespecive of he level of educaion. I is calculaed by dividing he number of pupils (or sudens) of a specific age enrolled in educaional insiuions a all levels of educaion by he populaion of he same age. (Inerpreaion: A high ASER denoes a high degree of educaional paricipaion of he populaion of he paricular age. The heoreical maximum value is 100%. Increasing raios can be considered as reflecing improving paricipaion of he paricular age. If he ASER is below 100%, hen he difference provides a measure of he proporion of he populaion of he paricular age who are no enrolled.) Formula: a a a E ASER = P Where: ASER a = Age Specific Enrolmen Raio of he populaion of age a in school-year E a = Enrolmen of he populaion of age a in school-year. P a = Populaion of age a in school-year Inernal efficiency The inernal efficiency of an educaion sysem basically measures he number of years i akes a child o complee a paricular cycle or level of educaion, e.g. primary, secondary, ec. The basic indicaors required o measure he inernal efficiency of an educaion sysem are calculaed on he basis of he flow raes (promoion, repeiion and drop-ou). To obain hese indicaors, one needs o have he enrolmen saisics of a leas he wo mos recen successive years or beer, he pas en years. The repeiion and drop-ou raes will make i possible o measure he sysem s efficiency as well as he poenial efficiency gains ha free up resources. The indicaors of he survival, reenion and compleion 11 raes are calculaed on he basis of he flow raes. I is imporan o analyze he reasons underlining hese indicaors. I someimes happens, for example, ha he high drop-ou rae in a given grade resuls from he simple fac ha many schools, being incomplee, do no provide eaching a his specific grade. The compleion rae, which can also be an indicaor of paricipaion, makes i possible o measure he inernal efficiency in counries where he rae of loss (linked o drop-ous and repeiions) is high. The flow indicaors are: (i) promoion rae; (ii) repeiion rae; and (iii) dropou rae. 11 The compleion rae evaluaes he percenage of pupils compleing a sudy cycle in relaion o he corresponding age populaion. 74

Annexes Promoion rae (p): he proporion of pupils enrolled in a given grade in a given school-year who will a he beginning of he following school-year, be enrolled in he nex higher grade. There are wo possible ways of calculaing his indicaor, depending on he availabiliy of daa on he number of promoees by grade. If such daa are available, Formula 1 can be used, in which case, he number of promoees by grade in school-year +1 is divided by he number of pupils enrolled in he corresponding grade in school-year. Oherwise, Formula 2 is used when daa on he number of promoees by grade are no available; he number of repeaers by grade in school-year +1 are subraced from he number of pupils enrolled in he corresponding school-year and he difference is hen divided by he number of pupils enrolled in he corresponding grade in school-year. Repeiion rae (r): he proporion of pupils from a cohor enrolled in a given grade in a given school-year who are sudying in he same grade in he following school-year. I is calculaed by dividing he number of repeaers in a given grade in school-year +1 by he number of pupils from he same cohor enrolled in he same grade in he previous school-year. Formulas: + 1 pi+ 1 pi = Ei + 1 E or i+ 1 pi = Ei Where: R + 1 i+ 1 p i = Promoion Rae a grade i in schoolyear + 1 p i+ 1 = number of pupils promoed o grade i+1 in school-year +1 + 1 E i+ 1 = number of pupils enrolled in grade i+1 in school-year +1 + 1 R i+ 1 = number of pupils repeaing grade i+1 in school-year +1 E i = number of pupils enrolled in grade i, in school-year. Formula: +1 Ri ri = Ei Where: r i = Repeiion Rae a grade i in school-year i R + i = number of pupils repeaing grade i, in school-year +1 E i = number of pupils enrolled in grade i, in school-year. 75

A resul-based planning handbook Dropou rae (d): i is he proporion of pupils leaving school wihou compleing a given grade in a given school-year expressed as a percenage of hose who were enrolled in he same grade a he beginning of ha grade a he beginning of he same school-year. There are wo possible ways of calculaing his indicaor, depending on he availabiliy of daa on he number of dropous by grade. If such daa are available, Formula 1 can be used, in which case, he number of drop-ous by grade in school-year is divided by he number of pupils enrolled in he corresponding grade in school-year. Oherwise, Formula 2 is used when daa on he number of dropous are no available; he number of repeaers and promoees by grade in school-year +1are deduced from he number of pupils enrolled in he corresponding school-year and he difference is hen divided by he number of pupils enrolled in he corresponding grade in school-year. Formulas: d i d = i = E D E i i i or ( R + 1 + 1 i + Pi + 1 Ei Where: d = Dropou Rae a grade i in school-year i D i = Number of dropous a grade i in school-year 1 + 1 ( + E i Ri + Pi + 1 ) = number of pupils dropping ou from grade i in school-year ) Cohor analysis using flow diagrams is useful o calculae oher indicaors of inernal efficiency. A school cohor is a group of pupils who join he firs grade of a given cycle or level of educaion in he same year and subsequenly experience he evens of promoion, repeiion or dropou. Cohor analysis races he flow of a group of pupils who ener he firs grade in he same year and progress hrough an enire cycle or level of educaion. In paricular, i can help calculae wasages due o dropou or repeiion, survival raes and he coefficien of efficiency. Annex 4 gives an example of he reconsruced cohor analysis mehod, whereby one can calculae average duraions of sudies, sysem wasages, coefficien of efficiency, ec. 76

Annexes Years-inpu per graduae (YIG): The esimaed average number of pupil-years spen by pupils (or sudens) from a given cohor who graduae from a given cycle or level of educaion, aking ino accoun he pupil-years wased due o drop-ou and repeiion (N.B. One school-year spen in a grade by a pupil is equal o one pupil-year.) I is calculaed by dividing he oal number of pupil-years spen by a pupil-cohor (graduaes plus drop-ous) in he specified level of educaion by he sum of successive baches of graduaes belonging o he same cohor. Formula: n+ k n+ k Gg, j * j + Dg, j * j = = j n j 1 YIGg = n+ k G Where j= n g, j YIG g = Years inpu per graduae (for graduaes belonging o cohor g) G g, j = Graduaes from cohor g afer j years of sudy g,j D g, j = drop-ous from cohor g afer j years of sudy k denoes he number of repeiions allowed; n he prescribed normal duraion of sudy for a cycle or level of educaion; g he pupil-cohor; and j he number of years of sudy. Average duraion of sudies per graduae (ADSG): The esimaed average number of years aken by graduaes o graduae from a given school cohor in a cycle or level of educaion. I is calculaed by dividing he sum of he producs of he number of graduaes by he number of n years spen in a given school cohor in a cycle or level of educaion by he number of graduaes in he corresponding school cohor and cycle or level of educaion. The resul is expressed in number of years. N.B. one year spen in a grade by a pupil is equal o one pupil-year. Formula: n+ k G * i i = i= n ADSG n+ k Where: Gi i= n G n = Graduaes afer n years of sudy G n+1 = Graduaes afer n+1 years of sudy G n + k = Graduaes afer n+k years of sudy n = + k G G i = Toal number of graduaes i= n 77

A resul-based planning handbook Average duraion of sudies per dropou (ADSD): The esimaed average number of years ha hose, who dropou from a given school cohor in a paricular level of educaion, sayed a school before dropping ou. To calculae i, divide he oal number of years (pupil-years) during which dropous from a given school cohor and in a level or cycle of educaion sayed in a school before leaving, by he number of dropous in he corresponding school cohor and level or cycle of educaion. The resul is expressed in numbers of years. N.B. one year spen in a grade by a pupil is equal o one pupil-year. Average duraion of sudies for he cohor (ADSC): The esimaed average number of years required for a pupil/suden o graduae from a given school cohor in a cycle or level of educaion. I is calculaed by dividing he sum of he oal number of pupil-years aken o graduae by pupils from a given school cohor and in a level or cycle of educaion and he oal pupil-years during which dropous sayed in school before leaving by he sum of he number of graduaes and dropous in he corresponding school cohor and level or cycle of educaion. The resul is expressed in numbers of years. N.B. one year spen in a grade by a pupil is equal o one pupil-year. Formula: ADSD Where: n+ k i = i= n n+ k D i= n D * i D i = Dropous afer i years of sudy i D n + k = Dropous afer n+k years of sudy n = + k D D i = Toal number of dropous i= n Formula: ADSC = Where: ADSG * G + ADSD * D 1000 ADSG= Average duraion of sudies per graduae ADSD= Average duraion of sudies per dropou See above. 78

Annexes Proporion of oal wasage spen on dropou (PTWSD): he proporion of oal number of pupil/years wased due o drop ou from school from a given cohor in a cycle or level of educaion. I is calculaed by dividing he oal number of pupil-years wased by pupils who drop ou from a given school cohor in a level or cycle by he sum of he oal number of pupil-years wased by boh he former and he pupils who repea grades in he corresponding school and level or cycle of educaion (i.e. he excess of pupil-years wased on he repeiion and drop-ous) and muliply he resul by 100. N.B. one year spen in a grade by a pupil is equal o one pupil-year. Proporion of oal wasage spen on repeiion (PTWSR): The proporion of he oal number of pupil/years wased due o repeiion wihin a given cohor in a level of educaion. I is calculaed by deducing he PTWSD from 100. The resul is expressed as a percenage. N.B. one year spen in a grade by a pupil is equal o one pupil-year. Formula: PTWSD = Where: n Di * i = 1 *100% PYEG i PYEG=PYC - OPYG pupils-years spen in excess See above. Formula: PTWSR = ( 100 PTWSD)% Where: PTWSR = See above. n Ri * i = 1 *100% PYEG i 79

A resul-based planning handbook Survival raes by grade (SR): percenage of a cohor of pupils (or sudens) enrolled in he firs grade of a given level or cycle of educaion in a given school-year who are expeced o reach successive grades. They are calculaed by dividing he oal number of pupils belonging o a schoolcohor who reached each successive grade of he specified level of educaion by he number of pupils in he school-cohor, i.e. hose originally enrolled in he firs grade of primary educaion. Formula: SR k g, i Where: Pg, i = = E m Pg, i = 1 k E g + 1 g, i+ 1 R + 1 g, i+ 1 i = grade (1, 2, 3,,n) = year (1, 2, 3,,m) g = pupil-cohor. k g i SR, = Survival Rae of pupil-cohor g a grade i for a reference year k k E g = Toal number of pupils belonging o a cohor g a a reference year k k P g, i = Promoees from E g who would join successive grades i hroughou successive years. R i = Number of pupils repeaing grade i in school-year. Coefficien of efficiency: The ideal (opimal) number of pupil-years required (i.e. in he absence of repeiion and dropou) o produce a number of graduaes from a given school-cohor for a cycle or level of educaion, expressed as a percenage of he acual number of pupil-years spen o produce he same number of graduaes. Inpu-oupu raio, which is he reciprocal of he coefficien of efficiency, is ofen used as an alernaive. (N.B. One school-year spen in a grade by a pupil is couned as one pupil-year.) I can be calculaed by dividing he ideal number of pupil-years required o produce a number of graduaes from a given school-cohor for he specified level of educaion, by he acual number of pupilyears spen o produce he same number of graduaes. Formula: CE g = Where: n+ k j= n G g, j n+ k j= n G g, j * j + * n n+ k j= 1 D g, j * j CE g = Coefficien of Efficiency for a pupil-cohor g G g, n = he number of pupils graduaing from cohor g in final grade n afer n years of sudy (wihou repeiion) G g, j = he number of pupils graduaing from cohor g in final grade n afer j years of sudy D g, j = he number of pupils (of he cohor g) dropping ou afer j years of sudy k denoes he number of repeiions allowed; n he prescribed normal duraion of sudy for a cycle or level of educaion; g he pupilcohor; and j he number of years of sudy. 80

Annexes Anoher indicaor ha can be used o assess he inernal efficiency is he compleion rae. Gross compleion rae: he oal number of sudens compleing (or graduaing from) he final year of primary or secondary educaion, regardless of age, expressed as a percenage of he populaion of he official primary or secondary graduaion age. I is calculaed by dividing he number of sudens compleing (or graduaing from) he final year of primary or secondary educaion by he populaion of he official graduaion age. Formula: Ch GCRh = Where: Ph, a GCR h = Gross Compleion Rae a level of educaion h in school-year C h = number of sudens compleing (or graduaing from) he final year of primary or secondary educaion h in school-year P h, a = Populaion a he official graduaion age a which officially corresponds o he level of primary or secondary educaion h in school-year In fac, in he absence of informaion on graduaes, he compleion rae is ofen proxied by he following formula (here applied o he primary case): GCR (primary) = No. of sudens in he las primary grade repeaing sudens Populaion of he official age group for he las primary grade Dispariies This means analyzing he educaional coverage and services by gender (girls/boys), by adminisraive area (region, disrics, ec.), by populaion densiy (urban/rural) or by socio-culural groupings (social sraa, ehnic or linguisic minoriy groups, ec.). In educaion as in oher secors, he rees may hide he fores: an enrolmen rae of 70 per cen in he rural areas may accompany a figure of less han 30 per cen in a desered region; a naional average suden/eacher raio of 40 may, in realiy, vary beween 10 and 150 by region. This analysis of dispariies is necessary no only for ehical reasons, bu above all, o ensure he delivery of adaped and efficien educaion services for he effecive schooling of differen populaion groups. For example, i makes i possible o ac on boh he supply and demand sides depending on he conexs. I also enables differenial resource mobilizaion as required by differen populaion groups (e.g. o accommodae differen opporuniy coss for rural populaions, he raining of eachers in specific echniques, ec.). School saisics and household surveys can be used o carry ou such analyses. One can use he indicaors described above in disaggregaing by gender and oher groupings in order o measure he magniude of dispariies. 81

A resul-based planning handbook C. Qualiy of educaion The qualiy in educaion is difficul o assess no leas because of he variey of definiions and undersandings of educaional qualiy by differen sakeholders. In principle, qualiy should deal wih educaional oupus and oucomes (e.g. learning achievemen, he acquisiion of basic life skills, ciizenship, ec.) raher han inpus. A commonly used indicaor could be he resuls of he examinaion. However, because such educaional oucomes are difficul o measure, planners and managers have ended o rely on he quaniy and he qualiy of educaional inpus (resources) o assess educaional qualiy. Three broad caegories of educaional inpus are: (i) educaion personnel; (ii) insrucional mehods and maerials; and (iii) educaional faciliies Educaion personnel Salaries represen he mos imporan par of recurren educaion expendiure. In many conexs, hey represen as much as 95 per cen or more of he recurren educaion budge. On he oher hand, eachers are he principal facor in educaional provision. This implies ha eachers aribues need o be analysed carefully. One ough o examine, for example, he number of eachers available, he requiremen of eachers in he ligh of he naional or subnaional norms and sandards, pupils/eacher raios, he level of eachers qualificaion and heir raining needs, and pedagogical and adminisraive supervision. Teacher salaries by caegory or by level of qualificaion need o be analysed in close coordinaion wih oher minisries or insiuions concerned. Someimes, he analysis of differen caegories of non-eaching personnel urns ou o be crucial in improving he qualiy and he efficiency of educaion services. Some eacher-relaed indicaors ha can be analysed a his sage include: 82

Annexes Pupil-eacher raio (PTR): Average number of pupils (sudens) per eacher a a specific level of educaion in a given school-year. For he purpose of examining sysem-wide pupil-eacher raios, eachers are defined as persons whose professional aciviy involves he faciliaion of learning and he acquisiion of aiudes and skills ha are sipulaed in a formal curriculum by sudens enrolled in a formal educaional insiuion. The PTR is calculaed by dividing he oal number of pupils enrolled a he specified level of educaion by he number of eachers a he same level. (Inerpreaion: A high eacher pupil-raio suggess ha each eacher has o be responsible for a large number of pupils. In oher words, he higher he pupil/eacher raio, he lower is he relaive access of pupils o eachers. I is generally assumed ha a low pupil-eacher raio signifies smaller classes, which enables he eacher o pay more aenion o individual sudens, which may in he long run resul in beer pupil performance.) Formula: h E PTR = T Where: h h PTR h = Pupil-eacher raio a level of educaion h in school-year E h = Toal number of pupils or (sudens) a level of educaion h in school-year T h = Toal number of eachers a level of educaion h in school-year. 83

A resul-based planning handbook The number of eachers available in he sysem and new eachers o be recruied: One ough o underake a careful analysis of he availabiliy and requiremen of educaional personnel, preferably by caegory. Very ofen, i sars wih calculaing (or couning) he number of eachers acually available (or working) in he sysem and exrapolaing he number of sudens per eacher (pupils/ eacher raio) or he number of sudens per class (class sizes). These indicaors could be compared wih he naional or subnaional sandards in erms of PTR or class size. There are wo ways of calculaing he full-ime equivalen eacher requiremens: he firs is he mehod based on he pupil-eacher raio and he second is he mehod based on he number of pupils by class and hours augh by eachers. The firs mehod is used when calculaing he eacher requiremens a he primary educaion level and he second is applied for calculaing hese requiremens a he educaion levels of subjec eaching, i.e. secondary educaion, higher learning, ec. Mehod based on he pupil-eacher raio: Eh PTR h = Th R = R 0 + * cr Where: TR = number required of full-ime equivalen eachers required E = oal projeced number of sudens R = pupil-eacher raio 0 R = iniial pupil-eacher raio cr = consan annual rae change of pupileacher raio Mehod based on he number of pupils by class and hours augh by eachers: Formula: TR = E C * H * L C = C 0 + * c Where: TR and E are defined above. H = average number of weekly hours per suden C = average number of sudens per class L = average number of weekly hours per full-ime eacher cc = consan annual rae change of average number of sudens per class 84

Annexes Teachers emolumens as a percenage of public curren expendiure on educaion (%TX): Public expendiure devoed o eachers emolumens is expressed as a percenage of oal public curren expendiure on educaion. I is calculaed by dividing public curren expendiure devoed o eachers emolumens in a given financial year by he oal public curren expendiure on educaion for he same financial year. (Inerpreaion: A higher percenage of public curren expendiure devoed o eachers emolumens denoes he preponderance of spending on eachers compensaion o he derimen spending on adminisraion, eaching maerials, scholarships, ec. The way in which educaional spending is allocaed beween hese differen purposes i.e. eachers salaries and he condiion of educaion faciliies (e.g. expendiure on eaching maerials, ec) can affec he qualiy of educaion.) Formula: TX %TX = PCXE Where: % TX = Percenage of public curren expendiure on educaion devoed o eachers emolumens in financial year. TX = Toal public curren expendiure on eachers emolumens in financial year. PCXE = Toal public curren expendiure on educaion in financial year. Educaional faciliies This is abou school space and equipmen. In counries ha have reached high levels of educaion, his represens marginal invesmen. However, in counries ha have significanly low enrolmen raios, his is one of he mos imporan budgeary caegories. Someimes 80 per cen of exernal financial resources are spen on he consrucion of new buildings. This implies he need for a horough and careful analysis of he coss and sandards of consrucion, he condiions of educaional faciliies (blackboards, desks, larines, waer, ec.), as well as he space-ime use of classrooms according o levels and ypes of educaion. Some indicaors ha can help measure he space-ime use of educaional faciliies are: 85

A resul-based planning handbook Pupil-classroom raio (PCR): The raio of he number of pupils (sudens) o he number of classrooms. I is calculaed by dividing he number of pupils (sudens) a a level or cycle of educaion by he number of classrooms in he corresponding level or cycle of educaion. (Inerpreaion: Low PCR may be conducive o proper eaching/ learning condiions bu can be less coseffecive. High PCR generally indicaes high classroom uilisaion rae bu no necessarily high learning oucomes. However all he oher facors which affec he eaching/ learning process should also be considered in he inerpreaion of his indicaor. Alhough i is generally agreed ha overcrowded classes are derimenal o pupil/ suden achievemen, he advanages of small classes are no necessarily obvious. Hence especially a lower levels of educaion, in order o increase boh access and paricipaion raes, given he scarciy of resources, more care should be aken when formulaing educaional policies solely on P/CR wihou due regard o he implicaions of cos-saving policies on he qualiy of educaion.) Formula: Eh PCR h = Where: Ch PCR h = Pupil-classroom raio a level of educaion h in school-year E h = Toal number of pupils or (sudens) a level of educaion h in school-year C h = Toal number of classrooms a level of educaion h in school-year. 86

Annexes Classroom space uilisaion rae (CSUR): Percenage of he area of sandard floor space occupied by pupils/sudens in a classroom. I is calculaed by dividing he area of floor space of a classroom acually used by pupils/ sudens a a level or cycle of educaion by he sandard floor space which is planned for uilisaion by pupils/sudens in he corresponding level or cycle of educaion. (Inerpreaion: Ideally his indicaor should approach as close as 100%. Indicaion on space uilisaion of classrooms wihou any informaion on he ime during which classrooms are occupied can be useless for cos effeciveness, educaional decisionmaking purposes.) Classroom ime uilisaion rae (CTUR): Proporion of hours classrooms are used or occupied for eaching/learning purposes wihin he oal number of sandard hours of uilisaion. I is calculaed by dividing he number of hours during which classrooms are acually uilised for eaching and learning a a level or cycle of educaion by he sandard numbers of hours classrooms are planned o be used in he corresponding level or cycle of educaion. (Inerpreaion: Ideally his indicaor should approach as close as 100%. Indicaion on ime uilisaion of classrooms wihou any informaion on he number of pupils involved can be useless for cos effeciveness and educaional decision making. In addiion he opimum ime uilisaion of classrooms can depend enormously on he ways classes are organised and especially a higher levels of educaion where he se-up ime beween classes can seriously affec classroom ime uilisaion rae.) Formula: Ah CSUR h = S h Where: CSUR h = Classroom space uilisaion rae A h = Area of classroom s floor space acually used a h level or cycle of educaion S h =Area of he sandard classroom s floor space ha is planned for uilisaion a h level or cycle of educaion Daa required: 1) Number of classrooms 2) Sandard and acual area of floor space classrooms are respecively uilized or planned o be uilized. Formula: Where: H CTUR h = S h h CTUR h = Classroom ime uilisaion rae H h = Number of acual hours classrooms used a h level or cycle of educaion S h = Number of sandard hours of uilisaion of classrooms a h level or cycle of educaion Daa required: 1) Number of classrooms 2) Sandard and acual number of hours classrooms are respecively uilised or planned o be uilised. 87

A resul-based planning handbook Classroom uilizaion rae (CUR): The produc of he classroom s space and ime uilisaion raes. I is calculaed by muliplying he CTUR (Classroom Space Uilisaion Rae) by he CSUR (Classroom Time Uilisaion Rae). (Inerpreaion: Ideally his indicaor should approach as close as 100%. When analysing his indicaor for educaional planning, proper care should be aken in isolaing he relaive weighs of he respecive influence of ime and space on is magniude. Since developing counries are faced wih scarce resources, idle capaciies usually occurs as resul of lack of informaion on boh classrooms ime and space uilisaion. Hence he developmen of his indicaor should be encouraged in line wih a raionalised classroom uilisaion managemen sysem in order o enhance he raes of access and paricipaion, especially in developing counries.) Formula: h CUR CSUR = h + CTUR h Where: CUR h = Classroom uilisaion rae Daa required: 1) Number of classrooms 2) Sandard and acual number of hours classrooms are respecively uilised or planned o be uilised. 3) Sandard and acual area of floor space classrooms are respecively uilized or planned o be uilised. 88

Annexes Classroom requiremens (TCR): Based on he analyses of he projeced enrolmens and classroom uilizaion sandards, i is possible o calculae fuure requiremens for new consrucions by level or cycle of educaion. This indicaor is indispensable when preparing secor plans or programmes/ projecs relaed o classroom consrucions. I is calculaed, especially for primary educaion level, by dividing he oal number of sudens by he average number of sudens per classroom. As for he secondary and higher levels of educaion, classroom requiremens are calculaed by aking ino accoun he number of (weekly or monhly) learning hours and laboraory-usage hours as well. Formula: NC d = TCR = d E d d ASC 1 [ E (1 a) * E ] d ASC d o ASCd = ASCd + * c where: E d = Toal projeced number of sudens, year and level of educaion d TCR d = oal classrooms required, year and level of educaion d ASC d = Average number of sudens per classrooms year, level of educaion d d NC d = new classrooms required, year, level of educaion d a = replacemen rae of buildings; cc = consan annual rae of change of average of sudens per classrooms; 0 = iniial year Insrucional mehods and educaional oupus This is abou evaluaing he saus (or he availabiliy) and he relevance of school programmes, pedagogical mehods (as for example, he ypes of pupil groupings in muligrade classes, double shifs, ec., and also he size of classes), and of insrucional maerial (exbooks, eacher s guides and oher equipmen). In cerain counries, he change or he reform of pedagogical means and mehods is considered as a major sraegy for he improvemen of pupil flow raes (increase in access o and paricipaion in educaion). Many of he above aspecs of qualiy can be quanified, bu do no ell much abou sudens achievemens and knowledge. For insance, curricula migh be poorly designed and exbooks irrelevan in heir conen; school inspecors may only be charged wih adminisraive daa collecion; eaching mehods migh be inadequae, ec. Furhermore, here are also non-school facors (such as he socio-economic background of he pupils and heir healh and nuriion saus) which are of criical imporance and affec performance and aenion in classes. Depending on he resources available o his end, specific research sudies should be carried ou as has been done in some counries in order o: 89

A resul-based planning handbook 4 Assess he acual learning achievemen of sudens, aking ino accoun heir individual characerisics and he various educaional inpus (learning environmen, educaional faciliies, eachers qualificaions, pedagogical supervision, ec.) as well as non-school facors (geographical zone of schools, parens social and economic backgrounds, disance o schools, ec.); 4 Idenify policy opions o improve suden performance in ligh of he naure and weigh of he differen facors influencing he eaching and learning by sudens. D. Exernal effeciveness This is abou he performance of graduaes of a cerain level of educaion in acive social and economic life, meaning, he social and economic benefis ha individuals and/or sociey can draw from he invesmens made in educaion. Depending on he conexs and he counries, he analysis of he characerisics of school-leavers (graduaes of a given educaional cycle), of heir professional inegraion in he job marke (racer sudies of school graduaes) can prove essenial in he definiion of educaional reforms. This means analyzing o wha exen he educaion secor is organized in ensuring a basic educaion for all he ciizens of he counry as well as he general, echnical and professional raining a secondary and higher educaion levels, in une wih he changing demands of sociey and he economy. On he basis of he evaluaion of he curren disribuion and regulaion of suden flows, possible opions may be idenified o improve he efficiency and effeciveness of he sysem in response o social demands and he job marke. E. Educaional coss and finance Coss of educaion Toal coss of educaion (Recurren and capial): This means expendiure by ype, by funcion and by level of educaion. Expendiures are in general analyzed in erms of recurren or capial expendiures. Formula: C = RC + I d Where: = year d d d = level of educaion C d = Toal coss RC d = Toal recurren coss I = Invesmen d 90

Annexes Recurren coss: Recurren coss (expendiures) are subdivided ino salaries (eaching personnel and non-eaching personnel) and oher recurren expendiures (exbooks, eacher guides, oher educaional maerials). Someimes, expendiures are made in cash or in kind. The analysis of uni coss, noably on salaries and school buildings, is imporan and necessary. On he basis of oal expendiures and enrolmens, one can calculae uni coss (coss per pupil) by school level, by ype (general or echnical educaion) or by saus (public, semi-public or privae). Increasingly, organizaions analyze coss per pupil or salaries per eacher as muliples of GDP per capia o make comparisons no only beween he levels and ypes of educaion in he counry, bu also o make regional and inernaional comparisons. Considering he imporance of salary expendiures, hese are analyzed in a deailed way in relaion o he salaries of oher professions of similar qualificaions in he counry, and salaries of eachers in comparable counries. These uni coss are compared wih he bulk of salaries in he ligh of class sizes and he suden/ eacher raios (or he weekly eaching hours for eachers and he weekly learning hours for pupils, especially a pos-primary levels). This analysis will make i possible for each counry o adop appropriae policies in increasing or mainaining salary levels by aking measures in qualiy improvemen in educaion and in he saus of eachers. Formula: RC = CT + CM + CA + CO CT d d d = n i = 1 d d k j + 1 T dij w d CM = E * CMPS CA d = E d *CAPS d CO d = E d * COPS where: CT d = Teacher coss dij CM d = Coss of maerials CA d = Adminisraive coss CO d = Oher coss T dij = Teachers by caegories(i) and seps(j) w dij = salaries by caegories and seps CMPS d = per pupil cos for maerials CAPS d = per pupil adminisraive cos COPS d = per pupil oher coss d d d d 91

A resul-based planning handbook Capial cos: The analysis of he cos of school buildings is anoher imporan field, in paricular in counries where enrolmen raios are low. Given ha much capial expendiure comes from exernal finance in some counries, he pressure exered by echnical and financial agencies mouns wih regard o building coss, which vary remendously from counry o counry and even wihin a counry iself, depending on he opions reained. The beneficiary counries can jusify high uni coss for he consrucion of classrooms, which requires a careful analysis of he procedures, expendiures and mehods of consrucion. [ ) * E ] 1 Formula: I d = CBPS * Ed (1 a where: CBPS d = per pupil building cos E d = Enrolmen a = replacemen rae of buildings d Educaional finance This involves he analysis of he financing of educaion by he Sae and local auhoriies (naional educaion budge and oher public budges), of he financing by families (in kind or by cash) in public as well as in privae educaion, of he financing by oher naional agens (indusries, religious denominaions, parens associaions, ec.) or by exernal agencies (which could be grans or loans a mulilaeral, bilaeral, or NGO level), and for recurren or capial expendiures. A he naional level, here exis several miniserial deparmens in charge of educaion and raining. I happens ha decenralized auhoriies receive non-allocaed credis from he Sae. I is herefore imporan o devoe sufficien ime o obain he daa on consolidaed public expendiure for all educaion and raining aciviies. I is necessary o define he budges voed and he real expendiure. I is imporan o analyze he non-governmenal budges, be hey naional (local groups, paren associaions, enerprises, ec.) or foreign (mulilaeral, bilaeral or non-governmenal grans and/or loans). The nongovernmenal naional budgeary daa can be obained during household surveys or from oher providers of educaion and raining. Experience also shows ha i is no easy o obain he budgeary daa of exernal agencies, given he (i) mulipliciy of concerned parners; (ii) he absence of accouns and he diversiy of budgeary caegories; (iii) he differen programming and disbursemen cycles of agencies 92

Annexes F. Managerial and insiuional aspecs This is he quesion of relaing he normaive aspecs of he sysem o he insiuional and organizaional managemen pracices of he secor wih a view o idenifying srenghs and weaknesses in order o bring abou improvemens. The managemen aspecs could be examined according o he radiional dualiy of he educaional organizaion: (i) he planning and adminisraive funcion which consiss of programming and disribuing resources (budges, personnel, buildings, insrucional maerials, ec.) among he levels of educaion, regions and /or schools, (ii) he pedagogical funcion which conribues o he acual managemen and ransformaion of hese resources ino end-producs (graduaes, learning achievemens, individual and social benefis). In is planning and adminisraive funcion, i revers o examining how he decisions were aken and implemened in he programming and disribuion of resources and wha crieria were used in he exercise of disribuing resources amongs differen levels and educaion esablishmens. Examinaion of various managemen ools (informaion sysems, programming ools, feasibiliy sudies, monioring-evaluaion, ec.) could provide informaion on he efficiency and coherence of hese funcions. In is pedagogical funcion, i is abou relaing he inpus available o he acual oupus and oucomes (number of sudens rained and heir school achievemens). I is rue ha he same inpus do no necessarily produce he same producs in educaion because of oher facors like family origin and pupils disposiions. Bu i is generally known ha eachers (and heir syle of eaching), insrucional maerials and school space have an obvious impac on pupils achievemen. The quesion, herefore, is o examine how hese differen resources have been mobilized and used in a raional and proacive way in a given environmen. Differen echniques and mehods of analysis are used for his purpose. These managerial and insiuional aspecs can be analyzed as par of he secor analysis or by means of a specific audi or insiuional analysis. 93

Annexes Annex 2. Sakeholders: differen perspecives Professional perspecives 12 The principal professionals involved in educaion are: educaors, adminisraors, researchers, ec. Bu each has a differen or even diverging percepion of educaion. Each of hese acors ends o give prioriy o cerain aspecs of educaion ha are of special concern o hem, raher han o well ariculaed prioriies for he educaion secor as a whole. Educaors, by definiion, focus heir aenion on he educaional or pedagogical aspecs, such as curriculum, eaching mehods, pedagogical maerials and learning achievemens. They end o underesimae he financial feasibiliy aspecs and ofen defend exremely ambiious proposals. Economiss (and he finance specialiss), who have been very influenial in naional and inernaional arenas since he 1980s, focus heir aenion on coss, financial capaciy and educaional efficiency. Educaional goals are deermined by he benefis accruing o economy and employmen. Economiss ofen use economeric models o carry ou sudies on hese hemes and heir opions. In he las few decades, economic and financial aspecs have ofen prevailed over he educaional, culural and socio-poliical consideraions in policy design. Researchers, in he majoriy, and irrespecive of heir diversiy according o discipline (eaching, psychology, sociology, he economics of educaion, ec.), believe ha research makes an essenial conribuion o policy formulaion. They complain ha policy makers make oo lile use of he research resuls. However, due o he diversiy of research areas, researchers ofen end o focus on heir own area of specializaion wihou aking a holisic view of he sysem. Ofen, hey lack he feel for realiy. Adminisraors (and managers), in principle, apply a global vision of he educaion sysem while ensuring coherence in managing is various sub-secors and resources, boh human and financial. Depending on heir level and auhoriy, hey share some of he concerns of planners, finance specialiss or economiss, bu give greaer aenion o he procedures, funcions and organisaion of he adminisraive srucures. Ye, in pracice, mos educaion minisries are professional bodies: he adminisraors are recruied among eachers wihou appropriae raining for heir ask. Hence, lacking appropriae raining; hey do no necessarily funcion effecively as managers and adminisraors. 12 This Annex is adaped from a UNESCO documen, Jallade, L. e al. 2001 95

A resul-based planning handbook Planners ypically are guided by a sysemic vision of he educaion secor as a whole, and is place in he wider naional (and inernaional) conex. This global vision akes ino accoun differen aspecs of educaion policies financial and adminisraive, as well as pedagogical consequences and he inerrelaions beween he goals proposed for he various sub-secors of he educaion sysem. Planners should jusify policy opions by means of sudies and facual daa as well as longererm projecions of objecives and resources, ec. They are in a posiion o inegrae he various concerns of oher educaional professionals ino such a sysemic perspecive. However, ofen hey end o focus on quaniaive raher han on qualiaive measures, on echnocraic aspecs raher han he poliical ones and on a cenralised, bureaucraic vision raher han a paricipaory, or adminisraively decenralised approach. The above snapshos poin o he need o inegrae such diverse professional perspecives. By is insiuional and poliical complexiy, educaion is mulidimensional. Learning and eaching are a he cenre of educaion sysems, bu pedagogical aspecs represen only one of many aspecs o be considered, along wih he coss, financing and managemen capaciies of he sysem or he implicaions for he ransiion beween school and work. Unforunaely, professionals ofen funcion in isolaion, each confined in heir own concepions. For example, here is ofen a lack of communicaion beween educaioniss and economiss, each being insensiive o he argumens of he oher. The same goes for pracising educaors and researchers or professors of educaion: he firs ofen rejec research resuls ha do no mach heir personal experience, he laer, on he srengh of heir inellecual saus, air views wihou consideraion of he realiy of wha i is like in he field. Hence, here is he need o encourage a dialogue beween various professionals in order o develop inerdisciplinary approaches and perspecives in policy formulaion. The acors and ineres groups I is imporan ha no only educaional professionals, bu also differen acors or groups of acors wih common sakes in educaion policies ake par in debaes and negoiaions. From a funcional poin of view, here are seven main groups: Eleced bodies (policy makers, parliamen, ec.) Civil service (managers, adminisraors a he cenral, regional, local level, finance specialiss) Oher providers of educaion (privae insiuions, communiies, religious groups,...) Teachers Beneficiaries (sudens, parens, employers) 96

Annexes Oher sakeholders (publishers of pedagogical maerial, NGOs, professionals in oher secors, e.g. healh, building, ourism secors, ec.) Inernaional cooperaion (inernaional and bilaeral donor, lending or cooperaion agencies), especially in he case of counries which rely on exernal suppor for educaion. All hese sakeholders can be said o share core common concerns abou he provision of qualiy educaion and raining, bu a he same ime hey will have specific concerns and ineress along he lines of wha follows: The overall concern of poliicians and governmen adminisraors is he effeciveness of he educaion sysem. Depending on he counry s conexs, poliicians and high level adminisraors may or may no share he same concerns and ineress; hey may or may no respec wishes of he populaion and here may be diverse ideas surrounding educaional reforms. Managers and adminisraors a lower levels are mainly concerned wih he efficiency of he sysem. Minisries of finance wihin he adminisraion have o deal wih he compeing demands for public expendiure, mindful of he overall, naional budge and sources of finance. Their major concern is o conrol public finance and coss according o cerain financial and economic crieria and parameers. Being accounable o he heads of governmen and commonly o inernaional financial insiuions such as he IMF, heir ineress may be in conflic wih hose responsible for he educaion secor, especially if he laer are unable o formulae argumens adequaely ha defend he case made for public educaional expendiure. This is ofen he case in many counries. Oher non-governmenal, insiuional providers of educaion comprise owners and managers of privae schools and religious associaions and congregaions. They ofen demand policies ha enhance he freedom of eaching as well as governmen subvenions for privae educaion. Teachers, a grea many of whom are civil servans, no only have heir paricular educaional concerns, bu also well-known corporais claims concerning wage levels, workloads, class size, pedagogical auonomy in he classroom, ec. They are numerous and ofen well organised in powerful unions and represen one of major concern o poliicians. Teachers represen he sronges driving force in educaional developmen. In he conex of budgeary consrains, however, ha limi he role of Sae educaion funding, heir paricipaion in he formaion of educaion policies and sraegies is crucial, hough in many cases i is ofen quie limied in pracice. Educaional beneficiaries (pupils and sudens, parens and employers) are involved no only as recipiens of educaional services bu also as direc or indirec conribuors o educaional funding in kind, in cash or hrough axes. Their concerns and ineress include he benefis o be drawn from educaion employmen, social or geographic mobiliy, presige bu also he financial burdens and opporuniy coss, ec. Families expecaions regarding educaion is validiy, he language of insrucion, curricula, 97

A resul-based planning handbook eachers, religious educaion, ec. vary considerably according o heir communiies or ehnic groups, or wheher hey come from rural or urban backgrounds. I is ofen difficul o accommodae such diversiy. Oher sakeholders include cenral agencies and line minisries concerned wih educaional developmen as well as hose dealing wih welfare, healh, ec. ha are usually affeced by educaion-relaed decisions. There are some operaors, such as exbook publishers, enrepreneurs in school-relaed indusries, ec. ha are affeced by decisions concerning healh, building or school holiday periods, ec. Their ineress are mainly economic. The inernaional and bilaeral agencies share many concerns wih he above naional acors in maers of educaional developmen. Ye heir ineress are also linked wih heir accounabiliy vis-à-vis heir respecive insiuions exernal o he beneficiary counry. There are differences according o he ype of agency: Bilaeral aid agencies may have specific ineress in he recipien counries, wheher programmaic or hisorical, whils all bilaeral agencies are ulimaely accounable o heir own axpayers and are influenced by domesic public opinion. Some agencies have been able o negoiae arrangemens for a join accounabiliy, buil around heir commimen o conribue o he achievemen of oucomes in he recipien counries, e.g. muual commimens oward he achievemen of he Millennium Developmen Goals (MDGs); The (mulilaeral) lending insiuions, e.g. he developmen banks, because of heir financial leverage, can ofen exer conrol and impose condiions which influence recipien counry s policies; The (mulilaeral) agencies of he Unied Naions, where he governmens of he recipien counries are srongly represened, are more subjec o he beneficiary counries policies, bu o varying degrees. 98

Annex 3. Simulaion in policy formulaion and acion planning A. Simulaion as a ool for policy formulaion and dialogue Policy simulaions can conribue o he formaion of educaional policies. They can help o idenify he implicaions of differen policies pu forward by he diversiy of ineress wih a sake in educaion. Compared o oher socio-economic secors, educaional developmen involves difficul and mulidimensional problems: (i) faced wih financial consrains, governmens have o adop resricive measures and make difficul decisions o regulae resource uilisaion, wihou leading o serious disrupions and dysfuncions; (ii) here are oo many acors, variables and inerrelaions beween hese; i is necessary o have no only a reliable informaion sysem bu also an objecive forecasing ool o faciliae policy consulaions regarding financial consrains and heir consequences on educaional opions. (see Chang & Radi, 2001) The firs sage of use of a policy simulaion is a he beginning of he formulaion process regarding he main lines of educaional policy. I is used as a ool for esing he feasibiliy of secoral reform or developmen opions. A he preliminary planning sage, compuer simulaions can illusrae he pedagogical, physical and financial implicaions of goals and objecives over he long erm. Simulaion echniques hus conribue o designing educaional policies and sraegies by highlighing he required background informaion. A policy simulaion model can conribue useful informaion o policy dialogue and faciliae consulaion and he negoiaion beween naional parners, and, in he even of exernal financing, beween hem and heir inernaional parners. The freewill goals and objecives, or hose addressing ambiious social demands, are defined and evaluaed according o heir budgeary implicaions. The simulaion enables he demonsraion of he feasibiliy or impossibiliy of achieving hese objecives wihin he counry s socioeconomic and financial conex. Several developmen scenarios are hen designed and demonsraed. Sakeholders can discuss argumens in suppor of or agains differen policy objecives and opions; hey can examine alernaive scenarios, and evaluae he advanages and disadvanages of each on he basis of relaively reliable esimaes. B. Acion planning hrough compuer simulaion The simulaion model conribues o he preparaion of medium-erm acion plans. I is used as a forecasing ool following he adopion of secor reform and/or developmen opions. I makes i possible o deermine he pedagogical, physical and financial implicaions of educaional objecives for precise periods. To prepare an acion plan 99

A resul-based planning handbook credible o all he acors concerned, including exernal parners, i is desirable for each counry o develop a simulaion model ha is specific o is educaion sysem. The purpose of he acion plan is o firs express in operaional erms he naional orienaions which were defined a he formulaion sage of he secor s general policy. The acion plan mus include he financial esimaes of recurren and invesmen requiremens o achieve he goals of educaion and raining. I mus also specify he acions and aciviies ha educaional auhoriies inend o implemen in a co-ordinaed and coheren way during he planned period. A simulaion model could conribue immensely o he developmen of a secoral acion plan. As a sysemic forecasing ool, i helps in considering he dynamics of he educaional sysem and he deecion of he inerrelaions of a number of parameers which influence he operaion and he improvemen of educaional services. In paricular, i provides he informaion on he necessary educaional inpus and he monioring and evaluaion indicaors on planned acions. The Table below shows an example of he scenarios and he quaniy, qualiy and ime objecives and indicaors ha can be generaed by he simulaion model. Noe: As a sysem, educaion and is developmen can only be designed as a whole, comprised of sub-secors and he organic inerrelaions beween hem. The secorwide approach makes i possible o guide he balanced developmen of he subsecors which depend on he sysem. In oher words, an educaion sub-secor, wih all he dimensions i implies, should no be reaed in a sub-secor manner. Is planning mus be inegraed in a sysemic and inerdisciplinary approach. Educaional inpus requiremens. Educaional inpus needs are esimaed on he basis of he quaniaive and qualiaive objecives expressed in operaional erms. The simulaion model makes i possible o deermine he naure and scale of hese inpus per year for he period considered. I provides indicaive informaion on school enrolmens as well as he human, physical and financial means o mobilise, in order o carry ou developmen acions. Presened below are some caegories of requiremens in educaional resources whose evaluaion is carried ou hanks o compuer simulaion. 100

101 Table 3.1: Quaniy, qualiy and ime objecives and indicaors generaed by a simulaion model for hree scenarios Scenario 1 Mainaining pas rends, Scenario 2 Pas rends, plus: reducing class Scenario 3 Moderae reducion of class wih sligh improvemen in size a all levels, and pupils/ size and pupils/eacher raio; supervision rae eacher raio reduced a primary developmen of privae secor a pos primary levels 2001 2006 2011 2016 2006 2011 2016 2006 2011 2016 Primary educaion Gross enrolmen raio 67% 76% 85% 95% 76% 85% 95% 76% 85% 95% Promoion rae 83% 85% 88% 90% 85% 88% 90% 85% 88% 90% Double shif 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% Sudens/eacher raio 53 50 46 43 44 36 30 48 43 38 Suden enrolmens 187 259 243 256 316 109 410 929 243 256 316 109 410 929 243 256 316 109 410 929 No of eaching poss 3 663 5 040 6 938 9 556 5 682 8 820 13 698 5 252 7 534 10 814 No of classrooms 2 520 3 747 3 747 8 302 4 198 4 198 11 674 3 897 3 897 9 339 Secondary educaion 1s Cycle Transiion rae 92% 91% 93% 98% 91% 93% 98% 80% 78% 98% Promoion rae 80% 84% 88% 92% 84% 88% 92% 84% 88% 92% Sudens/eacher raio 33 15 13 12 13 10 7 14 11 9 Gross enrolmen raio 32% 31% 39% 50% 31% 39% 50% 27% 32% 47% Suden enrolmens 57 142 64 645 94 254 141 268 64 645 94 254 141 268 57 458 78 330 133 470 No of eaching poss 1 729 2 204 3 647 6 173 2 578 4 943 9 654 2 170 3 627 7 314 No of classrooms 801 994 1 595 2 627 1 175 2 211 4 247 981 1 600 3 207 Secondary educaion 2nd Cycle Transiion rae 62% 64% 67% 72% 64% 67% 72% 60% 60% 62% Promoion rae (Gen & Tech) 76% 79% 82% 85% 79% 82% 85% 79% 82% 85% Sudens/eacher raio 22 22 22 22 17 13 10 20 18 16 Suden enrolmens 18 957 25 025 35 834 59 646 25 025 35 834 59 646 23 110 27 547 43 803 No of eaching poss 875 1 147 1 642 2 734 1 493 2 791 6 077 1 174 1 560 2 738 No of classrooms 535 709 1 025 1 726 922 1 735 3 812 723 958 1 688 Higher educaion Transiion rae (from General Secondary) 88% 70% 75% 88% 70% 75% 88% 70% 75% 88% Annexes

Scenario 1 Mainaining pas rends, Scenario 2 Pas rends, plus: reducing class Scenario 3 Moderae reducion of class wih sligh improvemen in size a all levels, and pupils/ size and pupils/eacher raio; supervision rae eacher raio reduced a primary developmen of privae secor a pos primary levels 2001 2006 2011 2016 2006 2011 2016 2006 2011 2016 Promoion rae (Ars & Science) 77% 77% 77% 78% 77% 77% 78% 77% 77% 78% Sudens/eacher raio 18 16 12 9 16 12 9 16 12 9 Suden enrolmens 3 016 5 570 6 878 10 777 5 570 6 878 10 777 5 477 5 699 7 238 No of eaching poss 164 348 586 1 216 348 586 1 216 342 487 835 No of classrooms 75 153 258 535 153 258 535 150 214 366 A resul-based planning handbook Expendiures 102 Recurren coss 3 624 645 5 300 839 8 711 760 14 271 283 5 984 112 11 123 888 20 939 640 5 264 213 8 422 803 13 450 187 Primary educaion 1 265 333 1 947 652 3 197 283 4 832 864 2 191 770 4 010 265 6 877 818 2 036 027 3 538 884 5 483 219 Secondary educaion 1s Cycle 783 437 1 084 685 2 070 640 3 741 597 1 289 953 2 857 127 5 995 461 1 046 204 1 860 399 3 167 620 Secondary educaion 2nd Cycle 297 982 464 654 829 072 1 632 123 606 243 1 396 517 3 611 403 419 207 596 084 1 043 997 Higher educaion 131 107 318 314 465 594 814 983 318 314 465 594 814 983 313 106 388 294 554 600 Invesmens 4 299 293 5 659 114 8 699 491 11 427 836 8 144 763 14 706 409 18 158 336 5 456 770 8 267 431 10 118 046 Primary educaion 2 338 708 3 263 251 4 896 505 5 292 028 4 458 233 7 494 420 7 441 914 3 649 298 5 694 954 5 953 531 Secondary educaion 1s Cycle 796 846 1 352 849 2 033 142 2 685 207 2 066 502 3 597 853 4 174 904 1 134 263 1 654 684 1 976 168 Secondary educaion 2nd Cycle 394 207 555 022 1 375 288 2 348 103 1 132 036 3 219 578 5 439 020 249 420 741 265 1 542 589 Higher educaion 769 532 487 992 394 557 1 102 498 487 992 394 557 1 102 498 423 789 176 527 645 758 Budges likely o be available 6 500 000 8 503 31111 124 047 14 552 497 8 503 311 11 124 047 14 552 497 8 503 311 11 124 047 14 552 497 Coss of simulaion 7 923 938 10 959 95217 411 252 25 699 119 14 128 875 25 830 296 39 097 976 10 720 983 16 690 234 23 568 233 GAP Budge/Simulaion coss -1 423 938-2 456 641-6 287 205-11 146 621-5 625 564-14 706 250-24 545 479-2 217 671-5 566 187-9 015 736

Annexes Personnel. The model makes i possible o esimae he number of eaching and non-eaching personnel required (managerial and supervisory saff, adminisraive and service personnel, echnical and mainenance workers, ec.) and o foresee recruimen needs (per year, per region, and by educaion level) while allowing for saff ariion. I also help o idenify he raining needs of hese personnel, boh a pre-service and in-service raining level. The new requiremens for eachers for a given year will indicae o he naional educaional auhoriies he need o ake adequae measures many years in advance (his varies according o counries) in order o forecas projeced raining periods for he various caegories of eachers. School buildings. On he basis of he number of sudens and he parameers of pedagogical managemen, he simulaion model has he poenial o evaluae he number of buildings o build, in a given imehorizon. I also indicaes he expendiure necessary for he purchase of necessary equipmen and mainenance expenses of all kinds. The required number of classrooms and oher spaces as well as he needs for new buildings are provided by he model per year and by region for all levels of eaching. Teaching and learning maerials. Wih he invenory of he sock of exbooks and oher eaching aids available, a simulaion model can allow esimaes of fuure needs for hese books and indicaion of he requiremens for he producion and he disribuion of hese maerials, in accordance wih naional policy in his field. I can also help o foresee he necessary acions required o acquire and/or renew he maerials, so as o mee he curricular reform and o evaluae he recurren coss resuling from his. Quanified indicaors. Faced wih economic and financial difficulies, minisries of educaion in many counries are under pressure from heir minisries of finance as well as inernaional developmen parners o prove ha resources provided are being used effecively. These pressures have conribued o he inroducion of new approaches o accounabiliy-based programming and managemen. In recipien counries, exernal bilaeral and mulilaeral agencies increasingly are requiring he programming of developmen acions o be more accounable and resuls-based. This new approach changes he way agencies work wih recipien counries in he preparaion of developmen plans and programmes in he educaion secor. These plans now need o include explicily he resuls expeced of developmen acions in order o measure, in advance, he educaional policy s poenial o achieve is objecives hereby ensuring he wish for efficiency of exernal invesmens. The objecives and acions of developmen plans are hus formulaed by inegraing indicaors for monioring and evaluaion from he sar. 103

A resul-based planning handbook Simulaion models are powerful ools for generaing performance indicaors ha should be idenified when preparing an acion plan. They provide hese in he form of quanified indicaors relaing o he educaional sysem s organizaion and operaion. These indicaors are provided per year for a reasonably long period according o he planned programme, by region and for all he levels of educaion and raining which are examined in he simulaion. 13 13 I is worh noing a his poin ha he adjusmens made a he level of decision parameers could lead o changes in resuls. These adjused parameers and variables are used o updae he indicaors of monioring and evaluaion a he ime of he implemenaion of developmen plans and programmes. 104

Annexes Annex 4. The reconsruced cohor mehod A school cohor is defined as a group of pupils who ener he firs grade of a given cycle or level of educaion in he same school year, and who subsequenly experience he evens of promoion, repeiion, dropou, or successful compleion of he final grade. According o he ype of daa colleced, here are hree ways of analyzing he inernal efficiency of an educaion sysem by means of cohor analysis mehod: (i) real cohor mehod, (ii) apparen cohor mehod, (iii) reconsruced cohor mehod. The ideal way of obaining a more precise idea of he inernal efficiency is he real cohor mehod. To his end, one underakes eiher a longiudinal sudy racing he progression of a cohor of sudens hrough a level of educaion, or a rerospecive sudy of he school regisers which make i possible o reconsiue suden flows over he pas years. The real cohor mehod has however he disadvanage of being expensive and of aking oo much ime; i is necessary moreover ha here are good school regisers and reliable informaion on each pupil. I is he reason why his mehod is no very much used. In he absence of individualized informaion on pupils, one can evaluae he inernal efficiency using he enrolmen daa of wo consecuive years by means of apparen cohor mehod or reconsruced cohor mehod. One can apply apparen cohor mehod when here are no daa on repeaers: one compares he enrolmens regisered in class 1 (or 1s grade) in a given year wih he enrolmens of successive grades over successive years, on he assumpion ha he reducion in enrolmens from a grade o anoher one corresponds o dropous. This mehod, however, gives oo approximae esimaes of dropous and is grea weakness is ha i assumes ha pupils eiher pass o a higher grade or drop ou of he sysem. The repeiion, which is an imporan facor, is simply negleced. This mehod is appropriae neverheless for counries which pracise auomaic promoion. More relevan and commonly used is he reconsruced cohor mehod. I is less demanding on he availabiliy of deailed daa over ime. To apply his mehod, daa on enrolmens by grade for wo consecuive years and on repeaers by grade from he firs o second year are sufficien o enable he esimaion of hree main flow raes: promoion, repeiion, and dropou. Once obained, hese raes may be analyzed by grade, o sudy he paerns of repeiion and dropou, and, in a reconsruced pupilcohor flow, o derive oher indicaors of inernal efficiency. Table 4.1. Enrolmens in 2000 and 2001 Year Grade I Grade II Grade III Grade IV Grade V Graduaes 2000 Enrolmens 20 194 18 770 17 436 16 243 15 104 11 237 2001 Enrolmens 19 052 17 671 16 357 15 226 14 129 Repeaers 1 357 1 331 1 327 1 324 1 315 105

A resul-based planning handbook How well hese indicaors describe he way in which a cohor acually progresses hrough a level of educaion depends on he validiy of he assumpions on which his model is based and on he reliabiliy of he saisical daa available for esimaing he flow raes. The mehodology of he reconsruced cohor flow model is based on he fundamenal concep ha for pupils enrolled in a given grade a a cerain year, here can be only hree evenualiies: (1) promoion o he nex grade in he nex school year, (2) dropou during he course of he year, and (3) repeiion of he same grade in he nex school year. Based on he flow raes, a cohor of 1,000 pupils hrough an educaion cycle may be reraced, wih he following imporan assumpions: ha here will be no addiional new enrans in any of he subsequen years during he lifeime of he cohor o he original cohor of 1,000 pupils; ha a any given grade he same raes of repeiion, promoion, and dropou apply, regardless of wheher a pupil has reached ha grade direcly or afer one or more repeiions (hypohesis of homogenous behaviour); ha he number of imes any given pupil will be allowed o repea is well defined; and ha flow raes for all grades remain unchanged as long as members of he cohor are sill moving hrough he cycle. According o his assumpion, he daa of he above able allows he calculaion of he following hree flow raes. For example, on he 20 194 pupils admied in Grade 1 in 2000: a) 1 357 repeaed Grade 1 in 2001, i.e. 12.4% b) 16 340 move up o he higher grade, or 80.9% (17 671 regisered in Grade 2 in 2001 minus 1 331 who have repeaed his grade in 2001) c) 2 494 gave up he school, i.e. 6.7% (20 194, less he sum of 16 340 and 1 357). The corresponding flow raes herefore are: p=80.9%; r=6.7%; a=12.4%, whose oal is 100%. By applying he same fashion of calculaion, one is able o calculae he flow raes of he oher successive grades. 106

Annexes Table 4.2. Flow raes in 2000 Grade I Grade II Grade III Grade IV Grade V Promoion (p) 80.9% 80.1% 79.7% 78.9% 74.4% Repeiion (r) 6.7% 7.1% 7.6% 8.2% 8.7% Dropou (a) 12.4% 12.8% 12.7% 13.0% 16.9% One can use hese flow raes o make furher analyses by means of he cohor analysis diagram as shown in Figure 4.1. One can draw from his flow diagram a cerain number of ineresing observaions. For example, on he iniial number of 1 000 children admied in Grade 1, hey are 303 who graduae from he cycle wihou any repeiion; 116 graduae wih one year of delay (or repeiion), 27 wih wo years of delay, herefore afer wo repeiions, and 4 afer having repeaed hree imes. Figure 4.1: Diagram of reconsruced cohor flow analysis Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 School Year 124 124 2000 1000 1000 67 809 67 8 104 112 2001 67 809 876 5 54 57 648 62 1 14 82 97 2002 5 111 648 764 0 4 8 89 49 517 57 0 1 18 67 86 2003 0 12 139 517 668 0 1 9 11 111 42 408 Graduaes 54 0 3 20 69 92 2004 1 20 153 408 304 582 1 2 16 12 121 35 49 1 4 26 31 2005 1 28 156 116 185 0 2 22 14 16 Pupils-years 0 6 6 2006 Grade 1 1 072 1 072 2 36 27 38 Grade 2 933 933 2 3 3 Grade 3 808 808 1 1 2007 Grade 4 700 700 5 4 5 Grade 5 605 605 0 Toal Pupil-years 4 118 Survie par année 133 119 104 91 102 1000 867 748 644 553 451 Summary Saisics Average duraion of sudies Pupil-years wased Legend: 27 Dropous Toal Pupil-years: 4 118 Per Graduae: 5,4 Due o repeaers: 308 1000 702 Promoees Toal Graduaes: 451 Per Drop-ou: 3,1 Due o dropous: 1 679 271 Repeaers Toal Dropous: 549 For he Cohor: 4,1 Survival rae: 55,3% Toal Repeaers: 308 Years-inpu per graduae: 9,1 Coefficien of efficiency: 54,8% Moreover, his diagram makes i possible o calculae some principal indicaors of inernal efficiency. For example, i can indicae he number of pupils reaching a given grade, which makes i possible o calculae survival raes by grade. In Figure 4.1, for example, 867 of he 1000 pupils of he cohor (86.7%) have reached Grade 2. Survival raes are calculaed by deducing he sum of he dropous in each grade and each year from he enrolmens in his same grade, e.g. here are 124+8+1+0=133 dropous for 107

A resul-based planning handbook Grade 1, which, once deduced from 1000, gives 867 survivals. Lasly, by making he sum of he dropous of each grade (133+119+104+91+102), one obains a oal of 549 pupils who gave up he school sysem wihou compleing primary educaion. Thus, on he iniial roop of 1000 pupils, hey are only 451, ha is approximaely 45%, who complee he primary educaion cycle. By muliplying his number of graduaes by he number of grades (451x5=2,255), one would obain he ideal number of pupil-years necessary o produce he graduaes. The relaionship beween he laer and he acual number of pupil-years who were used by he cohor (4,118) gives he coefficien of efficiency (2,255/4,118=0,548, i.e. 54.8%). The number of years-inpu per graduae (9.1) is obained by dividing he oal number of pupil-years (4,118) by he oal number of graduaes (451). One can hen compare he number of years of schooling per graduae wih he required ideal number which is simply he duraion of he cycle, i.e. 5 years in his case. The analysis of he diagramme makes i possible o conclude ha because of repeaers and dropous, one needed almos wice he ideal number of pupil-years o produce 317 graduaes. 108

In his series: 1. Naional policies and programmes and inernaional cooperaion: wha role for UNESCO? Lucila Jallade, Mohamed Radi and Serge Cuenin 2. The righ o educaion: Analysis of UNESCO normaive insrumens Yves Daude and Kishore Singh 3. Educaional planning hrough compuer simulaion Gwang-Chol Chang and Mohamed Radi 4. Educaion e formaion au Tchad: Recueil d éudes hémaiques Edied by Gwang-Chol Chang and Mohamed Radi (in French.) 5. Informaion ools for he preparaion and monioring of educaion plans Luis Carrizo, Claude Sauvageo and Nicole Bella 6. Implemening and fi nancing Educaion for All UNESCO Secion for Suppor o Naional Educaional Developmen (ED/EPS/ NED) 7. Decenralizaion in educaion: Naional policies and pracices UNESCO Secion for Suppor o Naional Educaional Developmen (ED/EPS/ NED) 8. Implemening Educaion for All: Teacher and resource managemen in he conex of decenralizaion UNESCO Secion for Suppor o Naional Educaional Developmen (ED/EPS/ NED) 9. Implemenaion capaciy for educaion secor developmen plans: he case of Niger UNESCO Secion for Suppor o Naional Educaional Developmen (ED/EPS/ NED) 10. Educaion resource projecions in he conex of secor-wide developmen planning UNESCO Secion for Suppor o Naional Educaional Developmen (ED/EPS/ NED) 11. Building a UNESCO Naional Educaion Suppor Sraegy (UNESS) Documen: 2008-2013 Guidance Noe UNESCO Secion for Educaion Suppor Sraegies (ED/SFS/ESS) 12. Educaion Secor-Wide Approaches (SWAps): Background, Guide and Lessons UNESCO Secion for Educaion Suppor Sraegies (ED/SFS/ESS) 109