Pupil Projections for North Somerset Schools

Pupil Projections for North Somerset Schools 2012 2016 DRAFT FOR CONSULTATION North Somerset Council Children & Young People s Services Town Hall Walliscote Grove Road Weston-super-Mare BS23 1UJ

Introduction The Local Authority is required to produce pupil forecasting statistics to inform the strategic planning of school places. The methodology for compiling these predictions is described below but we are always happy to take account of local knowledge and anecdotal information received from consultees. Pupil Projections Methodology and Assumptions The model for calculating estimated pupil projections has been continually developed over recent years. The main reason for introducing refinements to the model has been to account for pupil yield arising from new housing developments. New developments have resulted in significant growth in the area since the Council formed in 1996. The main features of the methodology and assumptions employed to calculate the enclosed pupil projections are as follows: 1. Full time reception entry pupils for September 2012 the projected intake to infant/primary schools is based on the number of applications already received for each school. The projected intake for other years is based on Avon Health Authority data that gives us figures for the number of pre-school children in each postcode area. Pupils are then assigned to schools by looking at numbers historically opting for each school from postcode addresses. Where projected numbers are greater than the published admission number limit for a school, pupils are assumed to reallocate to other schools within the cluster (also known as a group), having spare capacity. 2. Existing pupil numbers in primary and secondary schools moving to next year group movement from one year to the next is calculated for each school. A factor based on the gains and losses in each year group during the previous year is applied for junior school intakes and secondary schools, including 6th Form stay on rates. 3. Out of area movement into individual schools this is based on two year historic trends. 4. Demand from new housing units this is established using the North Somerset Residential Land Survey. Schools affected are determined geographically, and the potential intake is again determined by looking at past trends. Previously, one pupil yield ratio for primary pupils and one ratio for secondary pupils were applied to all dwellings in a development. These 2012-2016 projections use a pupil ratio per individual dwelling type to project the number of pupils expected to move into new residential developments. Dwelling characteristics are whether the dwelling is a flat or house, how many bedrooms it has and whether it is an affordable or market property. Children under school age who may move into a development and be of an age to require a school place within the five year lifetime of these projections are also accounted for in the estimated Reception Year (YR) pupils from new development figures. Estimates of the proportions of potential YR pupils moving into a new development from outside or within North Somerset are also used to refine the predictions of additional YR pupils. It should be stressed that the development 2

completion schedule is the best estimate at the time the projections were compiled, and the actual rate that new developments are completed and occupied is closely linked to the economic climate and may therefore vary significantly from that expected. 5. Junior school and secondary school intake apportionment to receiving school is based on the number of pupils moving from one school to another during the previous year. 6. Denominational school intake this is also based on historical ratios as above. It should be stressed that the projections are only indicative. For instance, where a projection for a school exceeds the capacity of that school, the projection does not imply that the school will be required to admit additional pupils. Following consultation on the projections last year, the following minor changes to how the projections are presented have been made: Tickenham school has been moved from the Clevedon cluster to the Nailsea cluster. In addition to the Roman Catholic school cluster, for reference, each of the three Roman Catholic schools is now shown below the geographical cluster in which it is located, but their pupil numbers are not included in the cluster group numbers to avoid double counting. The 2010-2014 projections presented the projected number of any shortfall of reception class places (YR) for each cluster. The 2011-2015 projections showed the cumulative total of YR pupils as they move through the school years who were not specifically allocated to a school within a cluster, as well as the projected shortfall per cluster per year. Following detailed analysis of pupil trends in new developments, it is now possible in the 2012-2016 projections to show a projected number of YR pupils from new developments by cluster. The projected number of Year 1 to 6 pupils from new developments per cluster is also shown (rather than allocating them to a particular school s total, which is how the figures were presented previously). The Year 1-6 figures include factoring-in the previous year s YR pupils becoming Year 1 pupils, and the Year 6 pupils transferring to secondary school each year. In addition to the above refinements, a new table is provided after the primary school projections to show the projected YR demand by cluster for each year, as well as the number of YR pupils predicted from new developments. The Planned Admission Number (PAN) for each cluster is also given. This table can be found on page 15 and is particularly useful in identifying areas where pressure is predicted to occur based on current PANs. Secondary school projections are on page 16. 3

Net Capacity and school places A school s net capacity (i.e. the number of pupils it can accommodate) is calculated using a Department for Education template which is intended to provide a single, robust and consistent method of assessing the capacity of schools. Where additional temporary accommodation has been provided in some schools to meet demand, or where schools are in the process of change, the additional capacity created may not be reflected in the Net Capacity Assessment figure if an updated assessment has not yet been carried out. Although a school might have a net capacity of a certain number, it is not uncommon for schools to be organised in such a way that it is able to admit additional pupils. For instance, it is organisationally better for a school with a Net Capacity Assessment of 396 pupils to be organised to admit up to 420 pupils thus resulting in 14 class bases of 30 pupils per class base. This organisational figure is termed the number of school places. The predicted empty places per school in these projections are based on the number of school places. Strategies to address increased demand The process of compiling the projections has revealed potential need to accommodate rising numbers of reception aged children, in common with many other local authorities across the country. Actions being taken to address such affected clusters are described below. The two main areas where demand is anticipated to exceed current capacity are Portishead and Weston-super-Mare. 1. Portishead Many additional places have already been provided in Portishead in response to pupil demand: Portishead Primary School was relocated in 2003 and enlarged from 315 places to 420 places; St Peter s C of E Primary School expanded from a 315 to a 420-place school in September 2005; High Down Infant increased in size from 225 to 270 places in September 2005; and Trinity Anglican Methodist Primary School opened as a 210-place school in September 2008 and was enlarged to become a 420 place primary school from September 2011. In addition, both Portishead Primary School and St Peter s C of E Primary School accepted additional pupils in September 2011. Despite all of these changes, it became apparent that the number of YR applications for September 2012 in Portishead was likely to exceed the number of places available and in this respect arrangements are currently being made for additional YR places to be established in High Down Infant School. Demand for new school places in the town of Portishead continues to exceed supply. Despite the increase of 675 extra primary places since 2005 (less 105 places following the closure of St Barnabas C of E Primary School in August 2009), applications for places in younger year groups continues to exceed the numbers of places available within the town. An extra 822 homes are due to be delivered 4

by 2016 creating a possible need for around 165 new school places (primary and secondary). Whilst currently surplus primary school places in Portishead are within agreed tolerances (at 6% overall), the need for new places (especially in younger age groups) continues. As a result, officers are currently seeking the support of the CYPS Policy and Scrutiny Panel to the commencement and progression of the necessary statutory process to create two 420-place primary schools on the High Down Infant and Junior School sites, thereby increasing provision across the town in all year groups by a further 210 places overall. If agreed, this change will be made in time for the September 2013 school admission round with each school admitting up to 60 YR pupils. 2. Weston-super-Mare To support extra demand for school places in and around the Worle area and prevent children having to attend schools outside of Weston-super-Mare, the local authority has made changes at Hillside First, Mendip Green First and St Martins C of E Junior Schools to enable them to operate as all-through primary schools and to become schools with capacities of 210, 630 and 630 pupils respectively. This has resulted in 315 permanent additional places (30 at Hillside, 150 at Mendip Green and 135 at St Martins). The 2012 2016 Pupil projections show that by 2016 the Weston-super-Mare North cluster of schools will share a deficit of 334 primary places and the Weston super-mare South schools a deficit of 171 primary places. The deficit of places is not however shared across all age ranges. Projections for new reception aged school places show that demand for the current 916 places across these two clusters will rise from the 887 applications received as at the closing date for reception places for 2012 (this figure will rise with the submission of late applications) to 929 places by 2016. To address the rise in demand for YR school places, Ashcombe Primary School will be admitting up to 90 YR pupils in September, 2012. In addition, to address the anticipated overall rise in demand for school places, a consultation is currently taking place to seek views on the Authority s proposals to expand Ashcombe Primary School from its current capacity of 420 pupils to a capacity on 630 pupils. With the proposed increase in provision at Ashcombe Primary School by 30 places per year group this will secure an additional 210 school places in the cluster. 5

Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) Net School Backwell Group Capacity places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Backwell C of E VC Junior 240 240 195 183 190 190 191 45 57 50 50 49 Birdwell Primary 315 315 239 260 279 296 313 76 55 36 19 2 Court-de-Wyck VC Primary 138 140 128 136 138 137 137 12 4 2 3 3 Flax Bourton Cof E VC Primary 105 105 98 98 103 103 104 7 7 2 2 1 Northleaze Primary 210 210 203 207 210 210 210 7 3 0 0 0 West Leigh Infant 135 135 134 135 133 130 126 1 0 2 5 9 Yatton C of E VC Infant 225 270 235 264 258 244 232 35 6 12 26 38 Yatton C of E VC Junior 360 360 289 279 299 314 329 71 81 61 46 31 (excluding new housing) 0 0 10 9 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 housing 0 0 0 12 23 31 41 Group total 1,728 1,775 1,531 1,583 1,633 1,658 1,689 244 192 142 117 86 6

Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) 7 Churchill East Group Net Capacity School places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dundry C of E VC Primary 105 105 68 71 80 84 93 37 34 25 21 12 Winford C of E Primary 137 140 128 124 132 127 122 12 16 8 13 18 (excluding new housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 housing 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 Group total 242 245 196 197 216 216 220 49 48 29 29 25 Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) Churchill South Group Net Capacity School places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Banwell Primary 186 210 191 190 184 176 168 19 20 26 34 42 Blagdon County Primary 119 119 111 114 113 112 114 8 5 6 7 5 Burrington C of E VA Primary 98 105 82 80 88 85 81 23 25 17 20 24 Churchill C of E Primary 210 210 196 187 182 177 169 14 23 28 33 41 Sandford County Primary 140 140 138 131 124 121 113 2 9 16 19 27 Winscombe County Primary 210 210 175 169 162 160 150 35 41 48 50 60 (excluding new housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 housing 0 0 0 6 7 13 23 Group total 963 994 893 878 862 847 823 101 116 132 147 171

Churchill North Group Net Capacity School places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 St Andrew's C of E VC Primary 244 315 241 254 235 231 223 74 61 80 84 92 Wrington C of E Primary 210 210 211 207 203 197 192-1 3 7 13 18 (excluding new housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 Group total 454 525 452 462 440 431 418 73 63 85 94 107 Gordano/Pill Group Net Capacity School places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Crockerne Primary 298 315 275 289 293 301 302 40 26 22 14 13 High Down Infant* 260 420 299 269 240 180 180 121 151 180 240 240 High Down Junior* 360 420 355 401 462 543 573 65 19-42 -123-153 Portishead Primary 420 450 446 446 447 448 448 4 4 3 2 2 St Mary's C of E Primary 105 105 101 101 103 104 104 4 4 2 1 1 St Peter's C of E Primary 426 450 446 443 443 444 444 4 7 7 6 6 Trinity Primary 420 420 325 345 373 396 415 95 75 47 24 5 (excluding new housing) 0 0 6 0 13 0 0 housing 0 0 0 15 16 23 33 housing 0 0 0 22 41 72 106 8 Group total 2,289 2,580 2,253 2,331 2,431 2,511 2,605 327 249 149 69-25 St Joseph's RC Primary 210 210 211 209 208 207 205-1 1 2 3 5 5 4 5 *High Down Infant and Junior empty figures need to be considered collectively due to the proposed changes mentioned earlier in this document.

Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) Net School Clevedon Group Capacity places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All Saints C of E Primary 115 115 111 114 114 115 117 4 1 1 0-2 Mary Elton Primary 420 420 410 411 411 411 416 10 9 9 9 4 St John the Evangelist VA Primary 315 315 294 304 308 308 315 21 11 7 7 0 St Nicholas Chantry C of E VC Primary 314 315 290 311 313 312 315 25 4 2 3 0 Yeo Moor Primary 420 420 305 314 327 329 337 115 106 93 91 83 (excluding new housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 1 1 2 5 housing 0 0 0 2 6 14 19 Group total 1,584 1,585 1,410 1,457 1,480 1,491 1,525 175 128 105 94 60 9

Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) Net School Nailsea Group Capacity places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Golden Valley Primary 357 420 407 399 378 367 359 33 52 64 69 70 Grove Junior 360 360 298 284 257 237 228 37 39 47 55 57 Hannah More Infant 270 225 192 173 161 156 155 25 26 28 34 34 Kingshill C of E VC Primary 210 210 173 171 163 155 153 6 8 13 14 15 Tickenham VC Primary 105 105 80 79 77 71 71 33 52 64 69 70 Wraxall C of E VA Primary 105 105 99 97 92 91 90 37 39 47 55 57 (excluding new housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 2 4 5 6 Group total 1,407 1,425 1,249 1,205 1,132 1,082 1,062 176 220 293 343 363 St Francis RC Primary 194 210 194 191 184 182 179 16 19 26 28 31 10

Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) 11 WSM North Group Net Capacity School places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Becket Primary 210 210 198 201 202 205 208 12 9 8 5 2 Castle Batch Primary** 388 439 430 429 427 425 423 9 10 12 14 16 Heron's Moor 420 420 417 418 419 419 419 3 2 1 1 1 Hillside County First*** 176 210 182 212 215 205 192 28-2 -5 5 18 Kewstoke Primary 112 112 107 108 110 109 110 5 4 2 3 2 Mead Vale County Primary 396 420 418 419 420 420 420 2 1 0 0 0 Mendip Green First*** 480 630 441 414 386 360 360 189 216 244 270 270 St Anne's C of E Primary 199 210 175 183 190 195 198 35 27 20 15 12 St Mark's Primary 420 420 419 419 419 419 419 1 1 1 1 1 St Martin's C of E VC Junior*** 540 630 499 580 657 743 807 131 50-27 -113-177 St. Georges VA Church Primary School 210 210 209 210 210 210 210 1 0 0 0 0 Worlebury St Paul's 210 210 205 207 210 210 210 5 3 0 0 0 (excluding new housing) 0 0 23 12 15 18 17 housing 0 0 0 27 30 33 32 housing 0 0 0 114 226 329 411 Group total 3,761 4,102 3,723 3,953 4,136 4,300 4,436 379 149-34 -198-334 **Castle Batch figures reflect a Speech and Language Resource Base on site which has a capacity of 19 pupils in addition to the 420 school places. ***Hillside, Mendip Green and St. Martin s figures need to be considered collectively due their change in to full primary schools, resulting in 210; 630 and 630 places respectively. Projected pupil numbers from new housing for this cluster are primarily based on expected dwelling completions in Locking Parklands and West Wick. The numbers of dwelling anticipated being completed are 299 by March 2013, 336 by March 2014, 271 by March 2015 and 250 by March 2016. This gives a total of 1156 completed dwellings out of an anticipated 4018 in total (3100 of which are Locking Parklands and 918 in the West Wick area).

Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) WSM Central Group Net Capacity School places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Ashcombe County Primary 420 630 448 453 473 488 506 182 177 157 142 124 Christ Church C of E VC Primary 205 210 209 209 210 210 210 1 1 0 0 0 Milton Park 379 420 393 396 408 415 417 27 24 12 5 3 (excluding new housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 3 2 4 4 housing 0 0 0 9 19 31 38 Group total 1,004 1,260 1,050 1,070 1,112 1,148 1,175 210 190 148 112 85 Corpus Christi RC Primary 210 210 207 208 208 209 210 3 2 2 1 0 4 2 3 5 4 12

Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May2012) WSM South Group Net Capacity School places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Bournville Primary 420 420 324 350 372 387 396 96 70 48 33 24 Hutton C of E VC Primary 210 210 201 202 202 204 205 9 8 8 6 5 Locking Primary 284 420 306 310 325 346 357 114 110 95 74 63 Oldmixon Primary 210 210 205 207 207 207 210 5 3 3 3 0 Uphill Primary 315 315 307 308 309 312 313 8 7 6 3 2 Walliscote Primary 315 315 273 294 291 291 294 42 21 24 24 21 Windwhistle Primary 390 420 394 400 404 405 406 26 20 16 15 14 (excluding new housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 housing 0 0 0 9 13 27 28 housing 0 0 0 34 79 155 272 Group total 2,144 2,310 2,010 2,114 2,202 2,334 2,481 300 196 108-24 -171 Projected pupil numbers from new housing for this cluster are primarily based on expected dwelling completions in Winterstoke Village. The numbers of dwelling anticipated being completed are 100 by March 2013, 100 by March 2014, 250 by March 2015 and 250 by March 2016. This gives a total of 700 completed dwellings out of an anticipated 2300 in total. 13

Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May2012) Net School Roman Catholic Group Capacity places 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Corpus Christi RC Primary 210 210 207 208 208 209 210 3 2 2 1 0 St Francis RC Primary 194 210 194 191 184 182 179 16 19 26 28 31 St Joseph's RC Primary 210 210 211 209 208 207 205-1 1 2 3 5 Year R not specifically allocated cumulative total, excluding new housing, (numbers per year given ion brackets) 0 0 4 (4) 6 (2) 14 (8) 23 (9) 32 (9) Estimated Year R pupils from new housing Totals include YR pupils as detailed to the left. There is currently insufficient data available to be able to project the demand for Catholic school places as a result of the new developments. Given the scale of the planned new developments is it likely that the projected demand from new developments in the Weston and Gordano clusters will include a number of pupils who will express a preference for a Catholic school place, therefore the numbers given above for the Catholic cluster should be treated as minimum expected numbers. Estimated Years 1-6 pupils from new housing Group total 614 630 616 614 614 621 626 14 16 16 9 4 Grand total 16,190 17,431 15,383 15,864 16,258 16,639 17,060 2,048 1,567 1,173 792 371 14

Year R projected demand by cluster PAN (Planned Admission Number) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1st preference + late applications as at 04/04/12 Predicted new housing pupils* Surplus / deficit PAN (Planned Admission Number) Predicted demand Predicted new housing pupils Surplus / deficit PAN (Planned Admission Number) Backwell 245 255 0-10 245 254 0-9 245 231 0 14 245 226 3 16 245 229 6 10 Churchill East 35 23 0 12 35 32 1 2 35 34 1 0 35 27 0 8 35 30 0 5 Churchill North 75 69 0 6 75 61 0 14 75 47 0 28 75 53 0 22 75 49 0 26 Churchill South 149 128 0 21 142 112 1 29 142 112 2 28 142 95 3 44 142 105 5 32 Clevedon 227 213 0 14 227 226 1 0 227 213 1 13 227 219 2 6 227 216 5 6 Gordano / Pill 360 366 0-6 360 333 15 12 360 373 16-29 360 347 23-10 360 360 33-33 Nailsea 210 163 0 47 195 153 0 42 195 126 0 69 195 151 0 44 195 139 0 56 WSM Central 180 177 0 3 180 156 2 22 180 170 2 8 180 165 3 12 180 167 3 10 WSM North 586 609 0-23 586 598 27-39 586 601 30-45 586 604 33-51 586 603 32-49 WSM South 330 278 0 52 330 318 9 3 330 327 13-10 330 324 27-21 330 326 28-24 Roman Catholic** 90 79 11 90 89 1 90 91-1 90 96-6 90 94-4 Total 2,487 2,360 0 127 2,465 2,332 56 77 2,465 2,325 65 75 2,465 2,307 94 64 2,465 2,318 112 35 *As first preference data has been used for 2012, it is assumed that YR children from new developments will have applied for a school place and are therefore accounted for. **Catholic school Year R deficit per school is shown in the main projections table. 15 Predicted demand Predicted new housing pupils Surplus / deficit PAN (Planned Admission Number) Predicted demand Predicted new housing pupils s Surplus / deficit PAN (Planned Admission Number) Predicted demand Predicted new housing pupils Surplus / deficit

Secondary School Projections number of pupils, years 7-13 (figures produced May 2012) Net Capacity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 School Backwell 1697 1694 1667 1632 1600 1567 3 30 65 95 130 Broadoak 900 891 874 882 892 924 9 26 18 8-24 Churchill 1538 1534 1543 1511 1538 1566 4-5 27 0-28 Clevedon 1409 1231 1222 1207 1217 1201 178 187 202 192 208 Gordano 1916 1947 1954 1953 1948 1977-31 -38-37 -32-61 Hans Price* 1003 742 765 781 858 957 261 238 222 145 46 Nailsea 1383 1069 1038 1052 1068 1058 314 345 331 315 325 Priory 1200 1226 1241 1252 1259 1288-26 -41-52 -59-88 St Katherines 1001 940 934 977 989 1059 61 67 24 12-58 Worle 1500 1491 1501 1518 1529 1553 9-1 -18-29 -53 Total 13,547 12,765 12,739 12,765 12,900 13,150 782 813 782 647 397 *Hans Price Academy (previously Wyvern Community School) came into being on 1 May 2011. It was agreed that the admission number for the academy would rise from 200 to 240 places per year group in preparation for changes on the site. The Academy should benefit shortly from a 14m rebuild and remodelling programme and should, once building is complete, be able to accommodate up to 1200 pupils overall. The projection figures do not include pupils who are likely to continue to participate in education from 2013 as a result of the Spending Review and the White Paper The Importance of Teaching, where the Government made clear its continued commitment to raising the participation age to 17 in 2013 and to 18 by 2015. Raising the participation age does not necessarily mean young people must stay in school; they will able to choose one of the following options: full-time education, such as school, college or home education work-based learning, such as an Apprenticeship part-time education or training if they are employed, self-employed or volunteering for more than 20 hours a week. http://www.education.gov.uk/16to19/participation/rpa 16