Researching the Market & Forecasting Sales A Key to Success! May 22, 2014 Gary Williams Director Jeni Clark Associate Director 1
Definitions MARKETING: Determining what the customer wants and how to get it to him/her SALES: Selling what is in the warehouse. 2
Importance of Market Dynamics The single biggest reason for new product introduction failure is a lack of market understanding. You need to search the market and determine what products, technologies and services will be competing against you. You need to do market research to understand the dynamics of the market and how you are going to win both short term and long term. You need to keep a constant watch on changes in the market and their impact on your product and/or service sales. 3
Importance of Market Dynamics Economics where do you want to market your product? Size of the market within each region (quantity and revenue) Overall growth rate within each region Size and growth of product segments Size of functionally available market 4
Importance of Market Dynamics Functionally available market Defined as the size of the market that your new product can participant in Factors include price, performance, service required, segment Need to consider how much market share you can capture replacement of current products versus capture of growth potential 5
Global Pigment Market by Region (billion $) % annual growth Region 2007 2009 2007 to 2009 Total Pigments 11.9 13.0 5.2 United States 2.4 2.6 3.4 Western Europe 2.1 2.3 4.6 China 1.9 2.1 7.8 Japan 1.1 1.2 2.2 Asia/Pacific 2.5 2.7 7.0 Rest of World 1.9 2.1 6.1 6
FUNCTIONALLY AVAILABLE MARKET U. S. Markets Total, % Total, billion $ Functionally Growth Growth Available, million $ Rate, % mil$/year Printing Inks 30 0.8 78.0 3.4 2.7* Paints & Coatings 26 0.7 67.6 3.4 2.3 Textiles 5 0.1 13.0 3.4 0.4 Plastics 15 0.4 78.0 3.4 2.7 Other 24 0.6 31.2 3.4 1.1 100 2.6 267.8 3.4 9.1 *=78 x 0.034 (new market available/year) 7
Importance of Market Dynamics What changes market conditions? New technology Changes in government regulations Change in economy Change in industry Health considerations 8
Importance of Market Dynamics What benefits do your products and services provide? Market pull? Technology push? Price? Availability? Delivery, warranty, refund policy? DO THEY SOLVE AN UNMET NEED? What is the value proposition? Are they differentiated? 9
What are the barriers to entry? High capital costs? High production costs? Consumer acceptance and brand recognition? Unique technology and patents? Labor costs? Just-in-time delivery? Regulatory approvals? 10
Who are your competitors? What companies and products compete with you? How will they compete price/service/etc.? How important are indirect competitors? (video store versus movie theatre) What are the strengths and weaknesses of your products and services? 11
Who are your customers? Demographics Geographic locations Income level Industry (for business customers) Size of firm (for business customers) 12
Customer Knowledge How will your customers know about your product? Promotion advertising; image? Promotional Budget? Sales channels? 13
Sales Methods How will you sell your products and/or services? Distribution channels direct sales, internet, distributors, sales representatives, catalog, mail order 14
Marketing Research Overview 1. Define the problem market, customers, products, competitors 2. Determine the research design Primary data (info collected directly from respondents; e.g. potential customers) Secondary data Guideline.com (industry and trend reports) Dialog.com (sorts firms by location, size, industry) Lexisnexis.com (information database) Business Source Complete (EBSCO) 15
Marketing Research Overview, cont d Choose the method for collecting primary data Survey methods to interview respondents Questionnaires (loosely, moderately, or completely structured) Observational research methods focus groups Online research 16
How much will you sell? Accurate forecasting is important so you will know how much you will need to make. Try to plan to have enough in inventory, but not too much. Cash is King. Sales forecasts base case; upside; downside 17
Forecasting Sales Need to determine the size of the market and assume how much you will capture. Need to do a bottoms up approach, not a top down; i.e. need to estimate/forecast how many units you will make and sell. Don t be afraid to make assumptions and see what results you can achieve. These include the number of units, the price/unit and the cost/unit. Gross margin, revenue minus cost of goods sold (COGS) is an important measure 18
SALES FORECASTING: Pigments for Printing Inks U. S. Markets Case 1; new growth (3.4%) Case 2; 15% turnover Amount of Pigment, # @Price, $2.50/# Revenue, 3 rd year Gross Margin, 3 rd yr NPV (40% Discount) 1,060,800 5% share $398k $191k $184k 5,740,800 5% share $1.8M $1.0M $812k Case 3; new growth(3.4%) Case 4; 15% turnover 1,060,800 10% share $795k $388k $366k 5,740,800 10% share $3.5M $1.9M $1.8M 19