American Association of Independent Investors November 2007 Orlando Growth Investing with CAN SLIM Fred Richards Strategic Investing November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 1
Disclaimer The content of this presentation is for the edification of the audience and has not been endorsed, nor approved of, by any of the persons, companies, nor websites mentioned herein, or during the course of this presentation. The author and/or speaker has attempted to verify all information but does not take any responsibility for any action which a member of any audience (both in person or in a subsequent venue) makes of the information which is presented herein. Results obtained in prior years are no guarantee of results either this year or in the future. You and you alone are responsible for any decisions you make based upon the information obtained during the course of this presentation. Fred F. Richards, Jr. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 2
Disclaimer We have been granted permission to use material by Investors Business Daily, Inc. and its affiliates. CAN SLIM and variations are marks of Investor's Business Daily, Inc. and affiliates ('IBD '). IBD does not license, review or approve of, and is not responsible or liable for any investment advice or other services provided by the user. The user is not an agent of, sponsored by, affiliated with, or owned by IBD and is not authorized by IBD to make any representations, warranties, or promises. These materials are for personal, non-commercial use only. No redistribution permitted. Registered trademarks owned by IBD and affiliates are used under the license agreement. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 3
Rule #1 Optimists Make more money Than Pessimists! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 4
Rule #2 KISS + SF! Keep It Safe, Simple & Stay Focused! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 5
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Strategic Investing Criteria Companies with Increasing Revenues & Profits Concentrate on Winners not Diversification Maintain Trading Discipline Action Points are Important Only one thing counts improving our standard of living through increased purchasing power! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 7
The Conservative Portfolio November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 8
S&P 500 Simple Timing Indicator November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 9
NASDAQ Simple Timing Indicator November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 10
The CAN SLIM Investment System November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 12
Using CAN SLIM Strategic Investing looks at the broad economic picture. CAN SLIM Investment System provides the tactical framework to locate profitable trading opportunities. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 13
CAN SLIM Parameters C - EPS > 18% Q/Q A EPS over 5 years > 15% annual growth, Sales growth > 25% going forward N New CEO, new high price, new products, new service S Less than 25M o/s L Leader in industry I Institution ownership < 35%, 3-10 institutions own shares M Market momentum November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 14
The Most Important is November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 15
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IBD s Market Pulse November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 17
Accumulation/Distribution Rating Where to Find the A/D rating! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 18
Stocks under Heavy Accumulation Data source: Investor s Business Daily. Used with permission. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 19
The A s in 2007 November 2007 Data source: Copyright Investor s Business 2007 Strategic Daily. Used Investing with permission. 20
Distribution Days Original definition a down day on increased volume. IBD s definition An occurrence where trading volume is, without any price appreciation, higher than that of the previous day. Are all distribution days equal? November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 21
Follow-through Days Ideally, a follow-through rally confirmation occurs on a day when the index's volume is both higher than the previous session and higher than its average over the past 50-days. If volume turns out to be higher than the prior session but lower than the average, you probably want to get back into the market more cautiously. The key is to view follow-throughs (or distribution days for that matter) within the context of the technical and fundamental characteristics of the broader market and leading stocks. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 22
Distribution Days Original definition a down day on increased volume. IBD s definition An occurrence where trading volume is, without any price appreciation, higher than that of the previous day. Are all distribution days equal? November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 23
Applying CAN SLIM A Perfect Cup & Handle Formation November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 24
CAN SLIM Bases First Stage Second Stage Third Stage Fourth Stage Fifth Stage Reset? November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 25
Channels Horizontal Sloping Breakouts? November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 26
Chart Reading too difficult? November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 27
IBD Stock Ratings A/D - Accumulation/Distribution EPS Earnings per share RS - Relative Strength GRP Industry Relative Price Strength SMR Sales + Profit Margin + ROE SMARTSELECT Composite Rating November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 28
The Ratings in the Tables November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 29
O Neil advocates EPS+RS>=160 but RS > 70, a B rating in A/D and Composite rating > 80. Problem Universe of stocks is too large for individual investor to sift through to make informed decisions. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 30
Applying CANSLIM A Cup & Handle with increasing volume on the right-hand side of the cup, a handle pull-back and its off to the races. A+190 When did it become an A+190 stock? November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 31
What makes a stock move? Accumulation/Distribution are institutions buying? Perception of Earnings Growth is investors focus! Relative Strength how is the stock performing relative to the market trend! 80% of your profits are dependent upon the momentum tide in the market. Remember to sell the expectation of profits not the realization! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 32
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Finding Winning Stocks? The definition of a Winning Stock is one which increases in value 50% or more from the time it is first identified and you take a position. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 35
Locating Winning Stocks The Magic Formula B + (EPS > 80 + RS > 80) and CR > 90 Increasing the filter reduces the number of stocks found The Daily Graphs Online Screen Filters November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 36
The Ratings Ladder 10/15/2007 B + 160-337 B + 170-228 B + 180-130 B + 190-61 A + 190-27 November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 37
Strategic Investing Rules $ = A + (EPS + RS >= 190) & CR >= 90 Condition Statements Invest 6-8% of your portfolio value in each stock No more than 15 stocks in your portfolio Set an immediate 6% Stop Loss as your Action Point Use a 6% Trailing Stop Loss based upon day s closing price Optional Rebuy the Stock if sold using an Action Point violation if it still meets a B+186 & CR >90 filter Allow some slippage to avoid whipsaws Never lower the Action Point November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 38
Strategic Investing Rules Only consider a stock for purchase when it meets the Strategic Investing filter of A + (EPS + RS >= 190) & CR >= 90. If the chart pattern appears ok and your due diligence requirements are meet, purchase the stock. Set an immediate Action Point. Regularly review and remove non-performing stocks from the portfolio. Don t be afraid of not being in the market! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 39
Chart Reading 101 November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 40
Using Daily Graphs Online November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 41
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Custom Screen Wizard November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 44
A + 190 - Modified This is the primary Strategic Investing search filter Used for the Conservative portfolio. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 45
Chart Reading 101 November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 46
How to read Daily DGO charts Look on daily for Q/Q EPS % Look on daily for Sales growth % What is A/D rating? Add EPS + RS ratings What is Composite rating? Shares o/s, Float? Average Daily Volume blue/red bars Note Sector Group November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 47
ISRG - Daily November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 48
How to read Weekly DGO Percentage of stock held by institutions Are the number of institutions rising or falling November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 49
ISRG - Weekly November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 50
Industry Groups November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 51
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Industry Sector/Group Rank Where the sector ranks Moving up or down Group chart All companies in group sorted by EPS + RS rank. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 58
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BIDU November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 61
CRNT November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 62
FTK November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 63
VDSI November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 64
POT November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 65
Knowing when to sell is more important than buying! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 66
When to Sell... Using Action Points to Maximize your profit! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 67
Action Points - Conservative November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 68
Decision Points for Selling Action Points based upon a trailing stop percentage Crossover of the 8 x 20 Moving Average indicator Moving down out of the channel if long Drop in the A/D rating to C or worse Drop in EPS + RS rating to less than 186 November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 69
Rebuy Points B+186 or better and Composite >= 90 8 day MA above 20 day MA Still within channel? For Long Positions, Never Reduce Action Points November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 70
ETF s are different More sector and area oriented ETF ratings are different Acc/Dist rating B or higher Relative Strength 80 or better 50 DMA 100,000 or better ETF history of at least a year Bid/Ask spreads Look at top ETF Dollar Volume for liquidity November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 71
ETF s 9-7-2007 November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 72
Now you know everything about Growth Investing! Good Luck when the balls come rolling down the lottery chute! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 73
Dow Jones Industrial Average 12961.98 13,000 14,000 15,000? November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 74
DJIA in Relative $USD November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 75
DJIA priced in Gold November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 76
DJIA in Crude Oil (WTIC) November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 77
Purchasing Power Counts Be careful of how you select your yardstick! Your standard of living is often determined by that yardstick. Don t get fooled! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 78
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Only 3 numbers matter! When all the dust is settled, they are NOT P/E, D/E, current ratio, PEG, profit margin or inventory turnover. THEY ARE: Price paid for shares, Price received for shares, Time held. November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 80
Optimists Make more money Than Pessimists! November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 81
William J. O Neil s Books November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 82
That s all Questions November 2007 Copyright 2007 Strategic Investing 83