From Catastrophic to Shallow Loss Coverage: An Economist's Perspective of U.S. Crop Insurance Program and Implications for Developing Countries Robert Dismukes Agricultural Economist
Insurance coverage: What s the Good? Guarantees based on historical yields and market price expectations Crop-by-crop policies, available for more than 100 crops Producers choose among insurance plans, units and coverage levels: Yield or revenue Individual (farm unit) or group (county average) Percent of expected yield or revenue: 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80 or 85 To insure, a producer pays a share of the insurance premium An insured producer receives an indemnity: Difference, if positive, between guaranteed and realized yield or revenue
Multiple Perils Are Covered Clipping from Conrad News (Montana), August 27, 1942
Supply of Federal Crop Insurance Federal multiple-peril crop insurance began in 1930s. It was an experimental program, available directly from USDA for a few crops in few areas. Also, there was, and still is, hail insurance available from private companies. In the 1980s: Federal crop insurance program rapidly expanded; private insurance companies given a role in delivering Federal program Since the 1990s: private companies exclusively deliver Federal crop insurance Administrative and Operating (A & O) expense reimbursement/subsidy paid to companies Since 2000: private entities exclusively develop new products Development costs reimbursed Products need to be approved by FCIC* Board All companies can sell any approved new product * FCIC = Federal Crop Insurance Corporation
Supply of Federal Crop Insurance Premium rates set and revised by FCIC* Risk Management Agency: no price competition among companies Insurance company must take any eligible producer FCIC and companies share gains/losses: Company retains/cedes premiums and potential indemnities of policies FCIC also provides loss protection to insurance companies on company retained policies Companies can also reinsure through private markets * FCIC = Federal Crop Insurance Corporation
Billion Dollars 3 Recent Private-Public Underwriting Gains and Losses 2 1 0-1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-2 -3-4 -5-6 Net Underwriting Gain/Loss to Companies Net Gain/Loss to FCIC Net underwriting gain by companies is based on premium and indemnities retained by companies. Net gain to FCIC is share of premium and indemnities ceded by companies. Source: Compilation of Risk Management Agency, USDA data.
FCIC poster, 1940 Demand for Crop Insurance
Public Policy Goal: Everyone in the Pool! - Said to eliminate the need for ad-hoc disaster assistance - Said to reduce adverse selection - But adverse selection is an information and insurance rating problem; participation distortion is a result
Million Acres Percent of Premium 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Subsidies Drive Participation Crop Insurance Reform Act of 1994 Federal Crop Insurance Act of 1980 and linkages to other program benefits Premium Discounts Ag Risk Protection Act of 2000 2008 Farm Bill 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Acres Insured--Coverage Above CAT (left axis) Acres Insured--CAT Level (left axis) Premium Subsidy (right axis) CAT = catastrophic coverage (low level); premium entirely subsidized; first available in 1995. Source: Compilation of Risk Management Agency, RMA data.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Million Acres Insured 300 Producers Have Moved from Yield to Revenue Protection 250 200 150 100 50 Subsidy rates on revenue insurance premiums rise in 1999 Revenue Protection = 64 % of acres insured in 2012 0 Yield (APH) Revenue Group Index Other APH = Actual Production History (farm or sub-farm unit level) Revenue = APH yield x national price (farm or sub-farm unit level) Group = County yield (GRP) or county revenue (GRIP) Index = Rainfall or Vegetation (Pasture, Rangeland and Forage) Source: Calculated from Risk Management Agency, USDA data.
Indemnities/Premium Has Crop Insurance Paid? 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Low participation prior to 1995 Drought Flood Drought 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Loss Ratio--Total Premium Loss Ratio--Producer Premium Source: Calculated from Risk Management Agency, USDA data.
Crop Insurance Paid in 2012 Drought Areas Counties with less than $10,000 in premium excluded. Source: Calculated from Risk Management Agency, USDA data.
Long-term Actuarial Balance* Has Varied by Region * indemnities relative to premiums Counties with less than $100,000 in premium excluded. Source: Calculated from Risk Management Agency, USDA data.
Billion Dollars Indemnities/ Producer-Paid Premium 8 Producer Gains from Crop Insurance Totals, 1981-2012 Top 10 States in Total Premium 4.0 6 3.0 4 2 0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Net Indemnities (left axis) "Gain Ratio" for Producers (right axis) Top 10 States accounted for 67 percent of total premium. Net indemnities = indemnities minus producer-paid premium. Source: Calculated from Risk Management Agency, USDA data.
Billion Dollars Costs of the Crop Insurance Program 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-4 Premium Subsidies A & O Subsidies Indemnities minus Premiums Total Costs are by crop year. A & O Subsidies = Administrative and operating subsidies paid to insurance companies and agents. 2012 costs are estimates. Source: Compilation of Risk Management Agency, USDA data.
Where the Money Goes 16% 15% 69% Producers Crop Insurance Agents Crop Insurance Companies Estimates based on Congressional Budget Office projections, 2011-20. Average annual expenditure = $8.3 billion.
Market Price / Effective Target Price Market Prices for Crops Increased and have been high relative to target prices during farm bill debates Corn, Soybeans and Wheat 3.5 3.0 Farm Bill Debate Farm Bill Debate 2.5 2.0 1.5 Cotton and Peanuts 1.0 0.5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Corn Soybeans Wheat Cotton Rice Peanuts Market price = Marketing-Year Average price Effective Target Price = Target Price minus Direct Payment rate; trigger price for Counter-Cyclical Payments Target Prices and Direct Payment rates are as specified in 2008 Farm Bill
Dollars per Acre Dollars per Bushel Insurance Guarantees Move with Prices 700 600 500 400 300 200 For example, corn... Operating Costs $355/acre (Economic Research Service, USDA estimate) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 0 Insurance Guarantee (left axis) Expected Crop Price (right axis) Insurance guarantee = liability per acre insured for revenue protection at 75 coverage level. Expected crop price = Base Price for revenue protection from prices of futures contract Source: Calculated from Risk Management Agency, USDA data.
I like crop insurance but I m not sure it gives me enough coverage.
Shallow Loss Programs Emerge in the New Farm Bill In addition to existing crop insurance: Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) County or farm-unit Crop price: Olympic average over previous 5 years Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) County Crop price: futures market Stacked Income Protection (STAX) for cotton only County ----?---- Crop price: futures market or reference price Delivered by Farm Service Agency, USDA Delivered by insurance companies; subsidized by FCIC
Percent of Premium Subsidized Portions of Risk Subsidized Very low participation in CAT 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Can go as high as 80 percent when enterprise units are insured. No premium charged CAT 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 ARC SCO STAX Farm-unit crop insurance ARC = Agricultural Risk Coverage SCO = Supplemental Coverage Option STAX = Stacked Income Protection Shallow loss programs
Is the Layer of Producer Risk Coverage Aided by Government Upside Down?
Everything s goin t be all right? Newspaper clipping from East Wenatchee Journal (Washington), November 21, 1948
Data Costs Distribution of benefits of the subsidized program Interactions with credit, crop marketing and contracting Alternatives