Divorce in Europe: Patterns, consequences, policies Juho Härkönen Stockholm University Demography Unit Swedish Institute for Social Research Email: juho.harkonen@sofi.su.se http://people.su.se/~jhr
Contents Trends in divorce in Europe Cross-national Population sub-groups (education) Consequences Effects on adults Effects on children (Consequences of living in high-divorce societies) Policies
I Trends
Crude divorce rates, 1960-2000 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 GER FR UK SWE SP POL 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Council of Europe (2004)
Crude divorce rates, 2000-10 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 GER SWE IT 0,5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Eurostat (2011)
Crude divorce rates, 2000-10 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 SP POL PRT 0,5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Eurostat (2011)
Crude divorce rates, 2000-10 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 UK FR EST 1 0,5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Eurostat (2011)
Summing up recent trends The long-term trend has been of increasing divorce (and separation from cohabs) In some countries, divorce rates seem to have slowly leveled off or even decreased In other countries, the upward trend still ongoing Many families now formed outside marriage; less accurate information on their stability
Heterogeneous trends Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education In some countries highly educated divorce more In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated
Heterogeneous trends Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education In some countries highly educated divorce more In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated
Heterogeneous trends Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education In some countries highly educated divorce more In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated
Heterogeneous trends Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education In some countries highly educated divorce more In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated
Union dissolution in Sweden, odds ratios (reference: low educ in oldest cohort) 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 Low educ 1 0,5 0 1965-71 1972-78 1979-85 1986-92 Source: Härkönen & Dronkers(2006)
Union dissolution in Sweden, odds ratios (reference: low educ in oldest cohort) 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 Low educ Mid educ 1 0,5 0 1965-71 1972-78 1979-85 1986-92 Source: Härkönen & Dronkers(2006)
Union dissolution in Sweden, odds ratios (reference: low educ in oldest cohort) 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 Low educ Mid educ High educ 1 0,5 0 1965-71 1972-78 1979-85 1986-92 Source: Härkönen & Dronkers(2006)
% % % % Trends in single parenthood (% all mums) Great Britain Denmark 30 30 20 10 0 Low Middle High 20 10 0 Low Middle High West Germany Italy 30 30 20 10 0 Low Middle High 20 10 0 Low Middle High Source: Mannheim Eurobarometer Trend File, own calculations
II Consequences
Consequences for adults Divorcees have worse physical and psychological health Stronger for men? Maybe limited to physical health Divorce has negative monetary consequences for women Less so for men Large country variation Economic security and social support reduce the wellbeing effects of divorce
Consequences for kids In Europe, most single-parent households formed through parental divorce Children of divorce have More material well-being deficits Poorer schooling outcomes More problem behaviors and crime Poorer mental and physical health Less stable own relationships Weaker relationships with parents and grandparents
Consequences for kids Can be long-lasting (often stronger in short-run) No consistent gendered effects Effects can be stronger at early ages or around key life transitions No strong evidence that effects weakened over time Effects can also be positive: In general, very heterogeneous effects
Consequences for kids Proper material conditions can reduce the negative effects of divorce Parents own adjustment important Psychological well-being Parenting Kids relation to their parents Parents relations to one another Step-parenting can reduce material problems, effects on other well-being less clear
Consequences for kids research indicates that children function reasonably well after divorce if their standard of living does not decline dramatically, their resident mothers are psychologically well adjusted and engage in high-quality parenting, they maintain close ties to fathers, and their parents avoid conflict and engage in at least a minimal level of cooperation in the postdivorce years. - Paul Amato and Spencer James (2010), Family Science 1(1): 2-13
Are the effects causal? Does the fact that people who experienced divorce have poorer outcomes mean that divorce caused these? Hard to determine in absence of experiments Many studies suggest that at least partly yes Divorce should be seen as both a process and event A process that starts well before and ends well after the event itself Implications for our understanding and policy responses
Are the effects causal? Does the fact that people who experienced divorce have poorer outcomes mean that divorce caused these? Hard to determine in absence of experiments Many studies suggest that at least partly yes Divorce should be seen as both a process and event A process that starts well before and ends well after the event itself Implications for our understanding and policy responses
Strengthening of inequalities? Educational gradients in divorce and family change can strengthen the consequences of divorce Family change can become a new pathway through which intergenerational inequalities are reproduced Little research thus far, available evidence does not suggest major role for family structure for intergenerational reproduction of inequality
III Policies
Policy responses: Causes Tightening divorce laws possibly of limited effect Many families formed outside marriage Divorce laws also affect intact marriages (in good and bad) Counseling Can have positive effects
Policy responses: consequences Income transfers and employment support can ameliorate economic hardship due to divorce Can become especially important if class-gradients widen Do welfare policies increase divorce and single parenthood? Some evidence suggests that yes Welfare policies can also stabilize families by lowering economic strains in families
Policy responses: consequences Counseling can help with coping Co-parenting after divorce on the rise Good: remain contact with both parents Overall effects on child well-being not well-known; likely heterogeneous
Summary Divorce has increased or is increasing in European countries, but country differences prevail In many countries, especially among the least educated Divorce can create unwelcome turbulence that can have lasting effects Transfer- and employment focused policies can smoothen material consequences but likely to have limited effect on other (longer-term) outcomes
Thank you!
Standardized divorce rates, Sweden 1971-2007 2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: Andersson and Kolk (2011) Standardized for age, marriage duration parity, premarital childbearing, duration since 1st birth
Standardized divorce rates, Sweden 1971-2007 2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8? 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: Andersson and Kolk (2011) Standardized for age, marriage duration parity, premarital childbearing, duration since 1st birth