Core Strengths, Sustainable Returns



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Transcription:

Nordic Senior Investor Day 2012 Core Strengths, Sustainable Returns Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations Hetal Patel, General Manager Investor Relations 23 May 2012

Disclaimer Forward-Looking Statements This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words believe, expect, anticipate, target or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal s management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittal s securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC ) made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittal s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2011 filed with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. 1

Agenda Structural improvements drive sustainable returns Market conditions and outlook 1 2 3 1Q results and guidance Safety remains the No1 priority for ArcelorMittal 2

Safety structurally improved Annual Lost Time Injury Frequency rate* for mining & steel 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 3.1 1.2 2.5 1.9 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.4 1.0 Safety is the No.1 priority of ArcelorMittal Since the merger there has been a significant improvement in LTIF rates but we still have a long way to go along our journey to zero Our goal is to be the safest Metals & Mining company 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q'12 2013 Safety remains the No1 priority for ArcelorMittal * World Steel Association-standard: Fr = Lost Time Injuries per 1.000.000 worked hours; based on own personnel and contractors 3

Fixed cost structurally improved Management gains plan (USD billion annualized) Steel shipments and fixed cost per tonne (base 100) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Target of $4.8bn by end of 2012 120 Shipments Fixed cost per ton 100 80 60 40 20 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2012F - 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 Reduced fixed cost per tonne increases leverage to a volume recovery 4

Asset optimisation Asset optimisation (USD million annualized) 1000 900 800 700 600 Asset optimisation progress to date 3Q 2011 Intention to close two blast furnaces, sinter plant, steel shop and continuous casters in Liege, Belgium Legal procedures with employee representatives are ongoing 500 400 300 200 100 0 2011 2012 2013 4Q 2011 Extended idling of electric arc furnace in Madrid Further restructuring costs at certain other Spanish, Czech Republic and AMDS operations Asset Optimisation Plan launched in September 2011 to generate an annualized $1 billion sustainable EBITDA improvement by the end of 2012. 1Q 2012 Extended idling of electric arc furnace and continuous caster at the Schifflange site in Luxembourg Further optimisation in Poland and Spain Good progress on Asset Optimisation Plan 5

Progress on non-core asset sales Erdemir ¼ of 25% stake sold raising $264 million cash in 1Q 12 ¼ of 25% stake tied to warrants potential for a further $300 million in cash Enovos Agreed sale to AXA of 23.48% interest for 330 million Initial 50% payment on closing (2Q 12) with balance (+ interest) over subsequent periods 1H Including sale of Macarthur stake, ArcelorMittal has sold $2.2bn* non-core assets since September 2011 Skyline Agreed sale to Nucor of 100% of ArcelorMittal s stake in Skyline Steel s operations in NAFTA and the Caribbean for $605 million The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of 2Q 12 Further disposals expected to be made in coming quarters * Includes Macarthur, Boasteel-NSC/Arcelor (BNA) Automotive, Erdemir, Enovos and Skyline 6

Structurally improved balance sheet Net debt ($billion) 32.5 Average maturity (years)* 6.4 23.6 2.6 3Q 2008 1Q 2012 3Q 2008 1Q 2012 Liquidity ($billion) Bank debt as component of total debt (%) 15.2 84% 12.0 15% 3Q 2008 1Q 2012 3Q 2008 1Q 2012 Investment grade rating remains a strategic priority * 1Q 2012 debt maturity figure includes the issues in 1Q 2012 of $3bn bonds and EUR 0.5bn 7

Industry leading iron ore growth pipeline ArcelorMittal iron ore growth plan (MT) ArcelorMittal iron ore production growth plan (KT) 100 Liberia Phase 1 & 2 90000 80000 Cost plus tonnage Marketable tonnage 80 60 Operational efficiency 5 Canada / Brazil 11 14 70000 60000 50000 97% Growth 40 84 40000 Marketable production 30000 20 49 54 20000 10000 Cost-plus production 41% Grow th 0 2010 2011 2015 plan 0 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Our 2015 iron ore growth plans are on track 8

ArcelorMittal Mines Canada (AMMC): expansion underway Canadian industrial location Bloom Lake ArcelorMittal Mines Canada overview Expansion of our Mont Wright mine at AMMC and concentrate capacity to 24Mtpa due 2013 (from 16Mtpa post operational improvements) approved Expansion capitalising on existing infrastructure, product quality and experienced workforce Capex C$1.2bn for mine and concentrator plant expansion* Post expansion cash cost are forecast circa US$38/tonne Advantageously located with easy access to European and US markets Expansion to 30Mtpa under study Mining expansion plan (concentrate) Million mt 25 20 15 1 9 Brownfield expansion Canada base 10 5 14 15 2011 2013 * AMMC 2013 brownfield expansion includes 1mt increase for spirals Strategic advantage from exclusive use of own rail and port facilities * Total scheme investment of US$2.1 billion includes investment in expanding the pellet plant which has not yet been committed 9

Liberia progress Liberia greenfield progress Industrial location of mine Phase 1: DSO complete 240km rail rehabilitation completed Upgrade of Buchanan port and material handling facilities completed First direct shipping ore ( DSO ) product shipped in September 2011 Now producing at 4Mtpa rate Phase 2: 15Mtpa concentrate from 2015 Expansion to 15Mtpa requires investment in a concentrator and remains under study Atlantic Ocean 16 Guinea Sierra Leone Buchanan Railway link from Yekepa to Buchanan (240km) Liberia Yekepa Ivory Coast Liberia greenfield planned expansion (Million MT) All marketable tonnes Total project capex (Phase 1 and 2) US$2 billion Capex of US$0.7 billion by end of 2011 12 8 4 0 ` 4 1 2011 2012F 2015F 15 Liberia expansion on track 10

With good project returns.. able to leverage existing infrastructure Estimated capital costs of key planned growth projects* in the iron ore industry (US$/t) 200 160 ArcelorMittal Mines Canada Expansion from 16mtpa to 24mtpa underway; expansion to 30mtpa under study 120 80 40 0 ArcelorMittal Planned grow th Tier 1 Brazil Tier 1 West Africa Tier 1 Australia Tier 1 Australia Iron ore production and operating unit cost (Index base 100=2011)** 170 150 130 110 Liberia Own and operate own rail and port infrastructure No requirement to provide third party access Commercial ramp up of 4mtpa DSO phase 1 underway Phase 2 expansion to 15mtpa concentrate in final stages of approval 90 70 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Iron ore production Operating unit cost 240km rail rehabilitation completed Upgrade of Buchanan port and material handling facilities complete ArcelorMittal s cost of adding iron ore production capacity is attractive vs other major producers * Sources: ArcelorMittal estimates and Citi Group estimates based on publicly available information ** Excluding planned greenfield projects (such as Baffinland) and investment in expanding the pellet plant at AMMC which has not yet been committed to. Note: Operating unit costs shown are on an FOB basis 11

Global indicators improving; Economic risks remain in Europe GDP weighted global manufacturing PMI 65 Global apparent steel consumption 1600 60 1400 55 1200 China: +5% YoY 50 1000 45 800 40 China (HSBC) Euro Area 600 RoW: +4.5 to 5% YoY 35 USA Global 400 200 NAFTA: +6.5 to 7% YoY* 30 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F EU27: -1 to -2% YoY* Global leading indicators steadily improving (with exception of Europe); Apparent steel consumption growth of +6.3% in 2011; we estimate growth of 4.0-4.5%* in 2012 Source: Markit and ISM; Global Manufacturing PMI is weighted average of regional PMI and combination of China HSBC and official China figures. * Base case assumption is low single-digit growth in developed world apparent steel consumption (ASC); a consumer-sentiment driven technical recession in EU and US could lead to a low single-digit decline in developed world ASC; a deeper Euro-debt crisis with negative YoY GDP growth could see low double-digit decline in developed world ASC 12

Destocking has ended in major markets Europe Service Centre Inventories (000 MT) US Service Centre Total Steel Inventories (000 MT) 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 EU (EASSC) Months Supply 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 USA (MSCI) Months Supply 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Brazil Service Centre Inventories (000 MT) China Inventories in 25 Major Cities (Mn MT) 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Flat stocks at service centres Months of supply Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Jan-07 Jul-07 Flat Jan-08 Jul-08 Long Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Inventory levels are now normalized 13

1Q 12 performance snapshot 1Q 12 EBITDA of $2.0bn, +15.1% vs. 4Q 11 (1Q 12 includes positive $0.2bn impact from employee benefit changes) EBITDA bridge 4Q 11 to 1Q 12 ($millions) +496 (179) (36) (122) 1H (41) +140 Steel shipments of 22.2 Mt, an increase of 1.2% compared to 1Q 11 1,714 1,832 1,832 1,972 Own iron ore production +12.1% YoY (on track for 10% growth in 2012) 6.8 Mt of iron ore shipped at market price compared to 5.9 Mt in 1Q 11 Q4'11 EBITDA Volume Volume Price / Price / Non & Mix - & Mix - Cost - Cost - Steel Steel Mining Steel Mining EBITDA* Net debt bridge 4Q 11 to 1Q 12 ($millions) (308) Others** +17 Q1'12 EBITDA Net debt at end of 1Q 12 of $23.6bn as compared to $22.5bn at end of 4Q 11 (744) +262 (294) 23,580 Liquidity improved to $15.2bn at end of 1Q 12 (Vs $12.5bn at end of 4Q 11) and debt maturity extended to 6.4 years 22,513 NFD at 31 Dec 2011 FCF Net M&A Dividends Forex Others NFD at 31 Mar 2012 Seasonaly lower mining shipments masked a clear improvement in the steel business in 1Q 2012 14

Outlook and guidance Steel: - Shipments in 2Q 12 are expected to be similar to 1Q 12 levels - All segments are expected to show improved profitability on like for like basis in 2Q 12 as compared to 1Q 12* Mining: - Mining segment expected to benefit from seasonally higher iron ore shipments - FY 2012 own iron ore and coal production is expected to increase by approximately 10% over 2011 levels Capex: - Continued focus on core growth capex (mining) - FY 2012 capex expected to be ~$4-4.5 billion Debt and working capital: - Further reduction in net debt anticipated in 2Q 12 with focus on working capital management and further non-core asset divestments - Consistent with stated objective to retain investment grade credit rating 1H 12 Group EBITDA expected to show improvement over 2H 11 * 1Q 12 Flat Carbon America s EBITDA includes $0.2 billion non-cash effect from employee benefit plan changes in Dofasco 15

Recap ArcelorMittal has made significant progress to improve its structural profitability: Management gains: leverage to volume recovery Asset optimisation: will add $1bn to sustainable EBITDA Non-core asset sales: cash generation via portfolio optimisation Balance sheet: reduced debt, diversified and extended maturities Despite the challenging environment, ArcelorMittal delivered a solid EBITDA outcome in the first 3 months of 2012 We have positive momentum in our results and this will be maintained in to the second quarter ArcelorMittal is making progress and heading in the right direction 16

Contacts Daniel Fairclough Global Head Investor Relations daniel.fairclough@arcelormittal.com +44 207 543 1105 Hetal Patel UK/European Investor Relations hetal.patel@arcelormittal.com +44 207 543 1128 Thomas A McCue US Investor Relations thomas.mccue@arcelormittal.com +312-899-3927 Lisa Fortuna US Investor Relations lisa.fortuna@arcelormittal.com +312-899-3985 Valérie Mella European/Retail Investor Relations valerie.mella@arcelormittal.com +44 207 543 1156 Maureen Baker Fixed Income/Debt Investor Relations maureen.baker@arcelormittal.com +33 1 71 92 10 26 17