ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF SANDY ON THE ELECTION: THE DOG THAT DIDN T BARK

For immediate release: Wednesday, November 21, 2012 10pp Contact: Krista Jenkins 908.328.8967; 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF SANDY ON THE ELECTION: THE DOG THAT DIDN T BARK In the most recent panel study of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind, the claims of those who argued that Sandy tampered with the outcome of New Jersey s elections are investigated. In particular, some argued that the storm had a negative impact on votes for GOP candidates down ballot, as well as increasing support for the highly visible president. Is this true? By speaking with the same random sample of registered voters both before and after the hurricane, we can address this question. Forty-five percent of registered voters contacted before the election said they favored the president; 50 percent of the same panelists reported they did, in fact, vote for President Obama when they were reinterviewed after the election. The five percentage point change could be accounted for, in part, by people deciding late in the process for whom they ll vote, said Krista Jenkins, director of PublicMind and professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University. But, the difference represents movement that is not statistically significant. Approximately four out of five panelists also agreed with the statement, I have a choice between two candidates, one of whom generally represents my interests and values, both before and after the election (86 versus 78 percent, respectively). The alternative statement, I have a choice between two candidates, neither of whom represents my interests and values, was supported by 12 and 15 percent of panelists before and after the election, respectively. This clearly wasn t a choice between Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum, said Jenkins. Garden State voters saw this election as one that pitted two very different candidates, only one of whom aligned himself with their interests. Panel respondents also did not change their minds in regard to the Senate race. In the measure taken before Sandy, Menendez led Kyrillos among the sample by a comfortable eleven-point margin (52 to 41%, respectively). The numbers hardly moved, as the panel --more--

respondents reported after Sandy what is statistically the same preference 49 to 42 percent for Menendez. Even though the Republican nominee derived a good deal of support from one of the hardest hit regions of the state, these data do not suggest that his base was eroded by the storm, said Jenkins. Voters were also asked to decide two public questions in November. Despite knowing little (25%) or nothing at all (47%) about the issue that would allow bond sales totaling $750 million to fund higher education in New Jersey, the number who said they were going to vote yes and who actually did according to self-reports remained virtually unchanged (54 versus 55 percent). The same is true for the other public question the request to amend the state constitution allowing the legislature to require contributions by state court justices to their benefits. The majority of panelists went into the voting booth knowing little (14%) or nothing at all (46%) about the issue, and about equal numbers of panelists said they intended to (73%) as actually voted to support the change (77%) on Election Day. The timing of both the hurricane and the presidential election presented a unique opportunity to assess the effects of a natural disaster on voters, said Jenkins. People s lives may have been changed by the storm, but not their voting preferences. The Fairleigh Dickinson University panel survey of 241 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone using both landlines and cell phones from October 26 through October 29, 2012 and November 13 through November 18, 2012, and has a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points. Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032 Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 2

Methodology The most recent panel survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 26 October 29, 2012 and then again from November 13 November 18, 2012 using a randomly selected sample of registered voters statewide. Respondents were initially contacted in the days before the presidential election and Hurricane Sandy, yielding an original sample size of 394. The desired sample size was larger, however the effects of Hurricane Sandy brought the data collection to an early conclusion in the first wave. The same 394 respondents were recontacted after the election and Hurricane Sandy. Due to the inevitable attrition that comes with any panel design, the final number of respondents who completed both pre- and post-election interviews was 241, or 61% of the original sample. With a sample of this size one can be 95% confident that the sample estimates reported in this release are within plus or minus 6.3 percentage points from the entire population of registered voters who live in the Garden State. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Furthermore, survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, nonresponse (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. PublicMind interviews were conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a land-line phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. Landline households were supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cellphone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample was mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender. Tables When it comes to voting, even people with good intentions often don t vote because of things that come up that prevent them from doing so. How about you? Did you vote in the recent election? [Asked after the election] Yes 86% 87 93 89 85 87 65 85 95 89 80 No 14% 13 7 11 15 13 35 15 5 11 20 In the upcoming elections for President of the United States, which candidate are you most likely to vote for? Barack Obama the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican? [Asked before the election] Obama 45% 89 16 4 40 49 59 37 45 36 76 Romney 44% 4 34 91 50 39 26 48 47 54 12 Someone else 3% 2 4 3 4 2 6 5 1 1 5 Unsure 2% 1 17-2 3-1 4 3 - Refused 6% 3 30 2 5 7 10 9 3 5 8 Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 3

And who did you vote for? Barack Obama the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican? [Asked after the election] Obama 50% 93 18 7 46 52 74 46 45 38 86 Romney 42% 4 41 89 47 39 20 43 48 53 11 Someone else 1% - 4-2 - - 3-1 - Unsure - 1 - - - 1 - - 1 - - Ref 7% 1 37 4 5 8 5 7 7 8 2 In the upcoming elections for Senate, who do you plan to vote for? [Asked before the election] Menendez 52% 94 25 11 47 56 74 48 49 42 90 Kyrillos 41% 2 52 81 47 35 19 44 45 49 10 Someone else - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 - - Unsure 7% 3 19 7 5 8 6 8 5 8 - Not registered - - - - - - - - - - - Refused - - - - - - - - - - - And in the election for US Senate, who did you vote for? or did you not vote in this election? [Asked after the election] Menendez 49% 92 22 8 42 55 64 48 46 38 84 Kyrillos 42% 4 42 86 47 38 20 46 45 52 11 Someone else - - - - - - - - - - - Unsure 2% 1 7-4 1 6 1 1 3 - Not registered - - - - - - - - - - - Refused 7% 3 29 6 7 7 10 5 8 7 5 On November s ballot there will be a questions about the state issuing $750 million dollars in bonds for new buildings and renovations on New Jersey college campuses. How much have you heard or read about this bond question? [Asked before the election] A lot 6% 6 22 2 3 9 8 3 8 6 7 Some 22% 22 21 24 23 22 18 15 29 25 15 Just a little 25% 23 19 27 25 25 21 25 26 24 28 Nothing at all 47% 49 37 46 49 44 52 57 37 45 50 I am now going to read to you the bond issue as it will appear on the ballot. This bond act authorizes the State to issue bonds in the aggregate principal amount of $750 million to provide matching grants to New Jerseys colleges and universities. Money from the grants will be used to build, equip and expand higher education facilities for the purpose of increasing academic capacity. Do you intend to vote yes or no on this bond act? [Asked before the election] Yes 54% 75 50 32 48 58 51 54 54 49 76 No 28% 10 27 49 34 24 23 31 28 30 12 Unsure 18% 15 22 18 18 18 26 15 18 21 11 Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 4

In regard to Public Question 1, which authorized the state to issue bonds in the amount of $750 million in order to help fund New Jerseys colleges and universities, did you vote for this, against it, or did you not vote on this question? [Asked after the election] Voted for 55% 75 49 34 50 60 65 57 52 51 71 Voted against 29% 9 28 52 33 26 20 26 34 35 10 Didn t vote 12% 12 7 12 14 9 15 13 10 11 14 Unsure 4% 3 16 2 3 5-5 4 3 5 On November s ballot there will be a question about permitting the state legislature to require state judges to contribute more to their pensions and benefits. How much have you heard or read about this bond issue? [Asked before the election] A lot 20% 16 40 19 16 23 11 8 30 22 9 Some 20% 16 18 26 25 16 7 20 24 23 16 Just a little 14% 13 3 18 9 18 4 15 16 15 14 Nothing at all 46% 55 39 37 49 43 77 57 29 40 61 Unsure - - - - 1 - - - 1 - - I am now going to read to you the question as it will appear on the ballot. Do you approve an amendment to the New Jersey Constitution, as agreed to by the Legislature, to allow contributions set by law to be taken from the salaries of Supreme Court Justices and Superior Court Judges for their employee benefits? Do you plan to vote yes or no on this question? [Asked before the election] Yes 73% 65 86 81 79 68 65 77 74 76 63 No 13% 16 7 11 10 15 21 11 11 13 14 Unsure 14% 19 7 8 11 17 14 12 15 11 23 And in regard to Public Question 2, which authorized the legislature to require state judges to contribute more to their pensions and benefits, did you vote for this, against it, or did you not vote on this question? [Asked after the election] Voted for 77% 74 74 85 77 77 75 78 77 80 67 Voted against 12% 15 7 7 14 10 20 7 13 10 18 Didn t vote 9% 9 11 7 9 8 5 13 7 8 10 Unsure 2% 3 8 - - 4-2 3 1 5 In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing our country today? [Asked before the election] Unemployment 6% 9 4 4 7 5 8 4 7 6 7 Economy 59% 47 54 73 65 53 60 70 51 55 65 Entitlement 14% 22 10 6 10 17 14 10 17 13 20 Foreign policy 5% 3 14 4 5 4-1 8 5 2 Social issues 9% 13-6 6 12 4 10 9 11 3 Something else 5% 4 17 3 6 4 9 4 4 6 3 Unsure 3% 2-4 1 4 6-4 4 0 In your opinion, what is the most important issue that President Obama and Congress should first turn their attention to? [Asked after the election] Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 5

Unemployment 14% 15 16 14 12 16 18 10 15 14 15 Economy 59% 56 60 66 64 56 56 62 59 62 55 Entitlement 5% 3 3 8 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 Foreign policy 2% 3-2 2 2 3 1 2 2 4 Social issues 3% 4-2 2 4 5-4 3 2 Something else 9% 12 14 3 10 9 6 14 7 8 13 Unsure 7% 7 7 5 6 9 8 8 7 8 8 Which of the following best describes your beliefs about the presidential election, even if neither is a perfect statement? I have a choice between two candidates, one of whom generally represented my interests and values or I have a choice between two candidates, neither of whom represented my interests and values [Asked before the election] Represented 86% 90 57 87 85 86 77 87 87 86 88 Not represented 12% 8 30 13 12 12 23 12 9 11 12 Unsure 2% 2 13-2 3-1 3 3 - Which of the following best describes your beliefs about the presidential election, even if neither is a perfect statement? I had a choice between two candidates, one of whom generally represented my interests and values or I had a choice between two candidates, neither of whom represented my interests and values [Asked after the election] Represented 78% 88 68 74 73 82 82 75 78 75 84 Not represented 15% 10 19 19 19 12 4 19 17 19 9 Unsure 7% 2 12 6 8 6 14 6 5 6 7 Questions Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 6

VOTEPRES When it comes to voting, even people with good intentions often don t vote because of things that come up that prevent them from doing so. How about you? Did you vote in the recent election? 1 Yes ASK PRES1POST 2 No ASK PRES3POST 8 Don t know ASK PRES3POST 9 Refused ASK PRES3POST PRES1 In the upcoming elections for President of the United States, which candidate are you most likely to vote for? Barack Obama the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican [rotate] 1 Barack Obama, the Democrat 2 Mitt Romney, the Republican 3 Someone else [vol] (Specify) 4 Unsure [vol; ask PRES1a] 8 Not registered [vol; skip to US1] 9 Refused [vol; skip to US1] PRES1POST And who did you vote for? Barack Obama the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican [rotate] 1 Barack Obama, the Democrat 2 Mitt Romney, the Republican 3 Someone else [vol] (Specify) 4 Unsure SEN1 In the upcoming election for senate, who do you plan to vote for? or.? ROTATE NAMES 1 Robert Menendez, the Democrat 2 Joe Kyrillos, the Republican 3 Someone else [vol] 4 Unsure [vol; ask SEN1b ] 8 Not registered [vol; skip to US1] 9 Refused [vol; skip to US1] SEN1POST And in the election for US Senate, who did you vote for? or., or did you note vote in this election? ROTATE NAMES 1 Robert Menendez, the Democrat 2 Joe Kyrillos, the Republican 3 Someone else [vol] 4 Unsure 8 Not registered 9 Refused/didn t vote BOND1 On November s ballot there will be a question about the state issuing 750 million dollars in bonds for new buildings and renovations on New Jersey college campuses. How much have you heard or read about this bond question? 1 A lot Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 7

2 Some 3 Just a little 4 Nothing at all BOND2 I am now going to read to you the bond issue as it will appear on the ballot. This bond act authorizes the State to issue bonds in the aggregate principal amount of $750 million to provide matching grants to New Jerseys colleges and universities. Money from the grants will be used to build, equip and expand higher education facilities for the purpose of increasing academic capacity. Do you intend to vote yes or no on this bond act? 1 Yes 2 No BOND2POST In regard to Public Question 1, which authorized the state to issue bonds in the amount of $750 million in order to help fund New Jerseys colleges and universities, did you vote for this, against it, or did you not vote on this question? 1 Voted for 2 Voted against 3 Did not vote on the issue /Can t recall JUST1 On November s ballot there will be a question about permitting the state legislature to require state judges to contribute more to their pensions and benefits. How much have you heard or read about this bond issue? 1 A lot 2 Some 3 Just a little 4 Nothing at all JUST2 I am now going to read to you the question as it will appear on the ballot. Do you approve an amendment to the New Jersey Constitution, as agreed to by the Legislature, to allow contributions set by law to be taken from the salaries of Supreme Court Justices and Superior Court Judges for their employee benefits? Do you plan to vote yes or no on this question? 1 Yes 2 No JUST2POST And in regard to Public Question 2, which authorized the legislature to require state judges to contribute more to their pensions and benefits, did you vote for this, against this, or did you not vote on this question? 1 Voted for 2 Voted against Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 8

3 Did not vote on the issue /Can t recall PRES3 In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing our country today? [Open ended pre-coded] 1 Unemployment 2 The economy, including the debt, deficit, etc. 3 Entitlement reform, such as Social Security, Medicare, and welfare 4 Foreign policy, including the war in Afghanistan 5 Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage 6 Something else PRES3POST In your opinion, what is the most important issue that President Obama and Congress should first turn their attention to? [Open ended pre-coded] 1 Unemployment 2 The economy, including the debt, deficit, etc. 3 Entitlement reform, such as Social Security, Medicare, and welfare 4 Foreign policy, including the war in Afghanistan 5 Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage 6 Disaster or hurricane recovery 6 Something else PRES4 Which of the following best describes your beliefs about the presidential election, even if neither is a perfect statement: [ramdomize] 1 I have a choice between two candidates, one of whom generally represents my interests and values 2 I have a choice between two candidates, neither of whom represents my interests and values 9 Unsure/DK PRES4POST Which of the following best describes your beliefs about the presidential election, even if neither is a perfect statement: [randomize] 1 I had a choice between two candidates, one of whom generally represented my interests and values 2 I had a choice between two candidates, neither of whom represented my interests and values 9 Unsure/DK Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 9

Sample characteristics Registered voters Gender Male 48 Female 52 Age 18-29 10 30-44 23 45-59 31 60+ 33 Refused 2 Race/Ethnicity White 70 Black/African-American 12 Latino or Hispanic 9 Asian 3 Other/refused 6 Region North 55 South 45 Party identification Democrat/Lean Democrat 49 Independent/DK/refused 17 Republican/Lean Republican 34 Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind Poll TM home 10