Research Report DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Second Quarter 2013
Economic Outlook Business and consumer spending to drive recovery Quantitative easing beginning its expected unwinding Employment growth outlook is mostly positive Federal spending and slow export growth are drags We believe the U.S. economy has entered a period of sustained, if still modest, growth. Both business and consumer spending are anticipated to be drivers of growth during the next few quarters. Consumer confidence continues to strengthen alongside an improving job outlook, rising home and stock prices, and increased credit availability. Business profits, although decelerating, are still at record levels. However, corporations are generally holding onto cash, dampening the effect of profits on economic growth. A top economic development of the past six months concerns market reaction to the Federal Reserve s hints at the unwinding of quantitative easing. While long anticipated, the prospect that tapering will start soon caused an initial spike of interest rates and increased volatility. The good news is that this unwinding is anticipated to herald stronger economic growth. Employment continues to grow on the strength of rising consumer spending. We expect growth will continue at a similar pace in the second half of 2013, with gains in construction and office-using employment outstripping other sectors. However, a higher proportion of these jobs are being filled by part-time workers. This ratio began rising in 2008, peaked in early 2010, and remains elevated at about 300 bps above pre-recession levels. One explanation for this is that firms (especially in lower-wage sectors such as retail) may prefer part-time labor to avoid the anticipated costs of complying with the Affordable Care Act. Were this trend to continue, some of the positive effects of job growth could be undermined by slower income gains. Federal government spending and slower export growth are current dampers to the economy. Export growth will likely continue to be soft in the near term given the strength of the dollar and below average global growth. Additionally, federal government debt continues to be a risk, as the sequestration and additional austerity measures are dragging on economic growth. However, tax revenue is exceeding expectations, which may serve to reduce the US government deficit and long-term government borrowing rates. Capital Markets Real estate transaction volume up Property sales increased for three of the four major sectors Sales volume for the first half 2013 for commercial real estate totaled $126 billion, up 21% from the first half 2012 as reported by Real Capital Analytics. The major trends are much the same as in recent periods: core real estate in gateway markets remains long-term portfolio targets, though the supply of product being marketed is scarce in most markets. Investors are beginning to take on more risk in the interest of achieving higher yields, either by assuming more leasing risk or by buying prime assets in more secondary markets. Apartment properties are leading in terms of transaction volume, but investors are also increasing trades for other property types. Apartment transaction volume increased to $41 billion during the first half, 51% over the same period in 2012. Cap rates are relatively stable, although yields are still higher than the prior
market peak. Industrial investment totaled $17.0 billion, with the majority of volume coming from warehouse trades. Office volume increased to $38.4 billion, with much of the volume growth coming from the suburban sub-sector. CBD office cap rates remain low, but are stabilizing, while yields on suburban properties compressed during the past year from 7.5% to 7.3%. Retail was the only sector property that registered trade declines, falling 10.6% to $22.5 billion versus the same period in 2012, although yields are relatively flat. Transaction volume expected to exceed total for 2012 despite some headwinds Transaction volumes are on pace to exceed 2012 levels, driven by increasing demand for real estate from most investor types. Recent market volatility and sudden increase in interest rates may lead to challenges in pricing in the near term, but many buyers should be able to absorb a slight increase in mortgage rates. Despite rising interest rates, debt terms remain generally favorable by historical standards, supporting deal flow and low cap rates. In addition, cap rate spreads to treasuries are still high compared to historical norms, providing additional support for the asset class. Real Estate Performance Income growth should help drive returns Industrial and office sectors expected to outperform Capitalization rate compression will likely slow going forward, giving way to NOI growth as the primary source of property returns from 2014 to 2018. Compression drove performance during the past three years as investors anticipated the recovering economy. Income growth, which should drive returns going forward, will likely accelerate in 2014 for industrial, office and retail properties. In contrast, while we still expect some income growth for apartments, the pace of growth is slowing in contrast to recent years. When factoring in higher interest rates and slightly higher future exit cap rates, returns to unlevered real estate will likely moderate. During our five-year forecast, industrial and office properties will likely outperform the returns of other sectors. Income growth for both sectors has so far underperformed in 2013, but will likely strengthen starting in 2014 and 2015, attracting more capital to both sectors. Apartment income growth and cap rate compression will likely decelerate midway through the five-year period, resulting in lower expected total returns. While the retail sector is expected to continue to experience steady NOI growth, gains will be lower than those of the cyclical sectors of office and industrial, resulting in retail underperforming in terms of total return. Multi-Family Pace of rent growth easing, but demand still supporting the sector The U.S. apartment market continues to proceed through the growth phase of the real estate cycle, maintaining essentially full occupancy and producing healthy rent gains. Improving household formation and stable homeownership rates continue to drive demand for rental units. However, while rents have continued to rise in 2013, the multi-family sector is expected to move into the mature phases of its growth cycle in 2014, with rent growth moderating thereafter. Strong sector performance is leading to a rise in construction, especially in high-growth markets where rents are above previous peaks. As new construction comes online, vacancy will move up modestly, although the sector will likely be supported by continued demand.
Industrial Industrial has had the strongest occupancy gains of the major sectors The industrial property sector recovery is growing in strength and broadening by market. The national vacancy rate fell by 100 basis points year-over-year through mid-2013, the most of the four property sectors. Gains in occupancy in leading coastal markets are well ahead of national averages, while low-barrier Midwest and South/Southwest markets generally lag, although a few are beginning to post strong vacancy rate declines. With stronger demand and little new construction, rent growth should accelerate during 2013 and 2014. Demand should outpace supply through 2015, allowing for solid occupancy and market rent gains. We expect national vacancy to decline to the 10% range and market rent growth of about 5% per year over the next two years. Office Sluggish demand recovery, but improvement expected by next year Demand expected to expand while new construction not posing a risk in most metros Despite office job gains, absorption during the first half of 2013 has been slower than in 2012, reflecting the twin drags of shadow space and tenant efficiency gains. New completions added only 0.15% to existing stock; however, with belowaverage tenant demand per employee added, market vacancy has decreased only 20 bps to 15.2% in the first half of 2013. We expect greater improvement in the second half of 2013 as the economy strengthens, but have lowered our nearterm demand forecast, considering the frugality of today s office tenants. Nonetheless, we expect a noticeable uptick in absorption for 2014. Moreover, we expect recovery to broaden this year to more submarkets. Construction remains low in most metros with a few conspicuous exceptions. While the pipeline is up in New York and San Francisco, these metros face low near-term risk since they have strong positive demand outlooks and long completion schedules. On the other hand, we are more concerned about Houston and Austin two metros with demand growth but even larger supply pipelines. Finally, the risks are mounting in Washington, where a large pipeline is delivering into demand that has been falling in recent quarters. Retail Gradual recovery in the sector Overall, U.S. retail property markets continue to improve, though slowly. Our forecast still calls for gradual market recovery in the near-term consistent with recent trends, with accelerating gains in the following years. We anticipate the 12.3% vacancy in community and neighborhood shopping centers will drop below 10% by 2015, as moderate demand absorbs existing vacancies and little new space is added to the market. With a pickup in deliveries starting in 2016, we expect vacancies to essentially flatten thereafter through the end of our forecast period in 2018. Rent growth increases should be generally track with improvements in occupancy rates, and previous peak rents will likely not be reached nationally until 2017 or later.
Important Information RISKS An investment in shares of RREEF Property Trust, Inc. common stock involves significant risks and is intended only for investors with a long-term investment horizon and who do not require immediate liquidity or guaranteed income. You should purchase shares only if you can afford a loss of some or all of your investment. You should carefully consider the information set forth in the "Risk Factors" section of the prospectus for a discussion of material risk factors relevant to an investment in RREEF Property Trust. Some of the more significant risks relating to an investment in shares of our common stock include those listed below. (1) We are a newly formed corporation and have no operating history. There is no assurance that we will achieve our investment objectives. (2) This is a "blind pool" offering and you will not be able to evaluate our investments before we make them. (3) Our shares should be considered as having only limited liquidity and at times may be illiquid. Since we are a perpetual-life investment vehicle and there is no public trading market for shares of our common stock, redemption of shares by us will likely be the only way for you to dispose of your shares. Our redemption plan contains limitations on the number of shares we will redeem in any calendar quarter. Our board of directors has the right to modify or suspend our redemption plan. (4) The amount of distributions we may pay, if any, is uncertain. We may pay distributions from sources other than cash flow from operations, including, without limitation, the sale of assets, borrowings or offering proceeds, and we have no limits on the amounts we may pay from such sources. If we do, it may negatively impact the value of the investment. (5) The purchase and redemption price for shares of our common stock will be based on the NAV of each class of common stock and will not be based on any public trading market. Because valuation of properties is inherently subjective, our NAV may not accurately reflect the actual price at which our assets could be liquidated on any given day. (6) We are dependent upon our advisor, which will face conflicts of interest as a result of, among other things, time constraints, allocation of investment opportunities and the fact that we will pay substantial fees to our advisor. (7) If we are not able to raise a substantial amount of capital in our offering, our ability to achieve our investment objectives could be adversely affected. (8) Our use of financial leverage increases the risk of your investment and could hinder our ability to pay distributions to our stockholders. (9) Our board of directors may change certain of our investment and operational policies without stockholder approval, which could alter the nature of your investment. (10) If we fail to qualify as a REIT and no relief provisions apply, our NAV per share and cash available for distribution to our stockholders could materially decrease.
(11) Data is provided as of June 30, 2013 and is subject to change. There is no guarantee these trends will continue. FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to the business and financial outlook of RREEF Property Trust that are based on management s current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections and are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on any such statements. A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. Forward-looking statements in this presentation speak only as of the date on which such statements were made, and RREEF Property Trust undertakes no obligation to update any such statements that may become untrue because of subsequent events. Prepared by Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, based on multiple sources and proprietary analyses.