A.M. BEST METHODOLOGY March 1, 2012 Contents A.M. Best s Evaluation Policy... 3 A.M. Best s Analytical Approach... 5 Evaluating the Credit Risk of the Securities... 19 Surveillance Requirements for Transaction... 24 Appendix:.... 26 Additional Information Criteria: Best s Impairment Rate and Rating Transition Study Best s Idealized Default Matrix Analytical Contact Emmanuel Modu, Oldwick +1 (908) 439-2200 Ext. 5356 Emmanuel.Modu@ambest.com Criteria Insurance-Linked Securities Life Settlement Securitization A life settlement is an insurance policy sold by the owner typically the insured or a trust for an amount greater than the surrender value of the policy but lower than the face amount of the policy. The purchaser of the life settlement becomes the new owner and beneficiary of the life insurance policy and is responsible for making future premium payments and collecting the death benefit of the insured. Exhibit 1 lists some of the reasons to sell an insurance policy. The life settlement market is an outgrowth of the viatical market, in which policies of the terminally ill normally those insureds expected to die within two years are bought and sold. In the life settlement market, however, insureds generally are over 65 years (but mostly are in their 70s). In addition, the typical life expectancy of insureds in the life settlement market, however, is currently about 11 to 12 years, indicating that the insureds in this market do not generally have catastrophic medical impairments. In addition, the average size of the insurance policies in the life settlement market is typically over $1 million dollars as opposed to an average of about $80,000 in the viatical market. Life settlements typically are sold through licensed providers by insurance brokers and agents. The price providers pay for the life settlements depends generally on the life expectancies estimated by medical underwriters after evaluating the medical records of the insured, as well as policy-specific contract characteristics. The higher the medical impairment of an insured, the lower the life expectancy and, hence, the higher the price paid for the insurance policy. The prospects for life settlement securitization have generated a lot of interest in the capital markets. Indeed, some financial institutions have been financing the accumulation of life settlement portfolios that they hope to securitize. However, rated life settlement securitizations will continue to be rare due to: 1) the difficulty in acquiring the critical mass of life settlements necessary for statistically stable cash flows; 2) significant insurable interest issues that must be addressed; 3) high transaction costs inherent in the acquisition of life settlements that Exhibit 1 Reasons to Sell an Insurance Policy This criteria report can be found at www.ambest.com/ratings/methodology Premiums paid by the policyholder have become unaffordable, and the policy is in danger of lapsing; Estate-planning needs of the insured have changed significantly; Funds are needed for long-term health care; Beneficiary has changed because of death or divorce; Disposal of unneeded key-man insurance or other business-owned insurance; Fund new annuities, life insurance or investments; Satisfy the need for cash in a forced liquidation due to bankruptcy or financial difficulties; Liquidate policies donated to not-for-profits; or Dispose of policies that no longer are needed or wanted for a variety of other reasons. Copyright 2012 by A.M. Best Company, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this report or document may be distributed in any electronic form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the A.M. Best Company. For additional details, refer to our Terms of Use available at the A.M. Best Company website: www.ambest.com/terms.
1 None of the securities in Fieldstone Securitization I LLC has been or will be registered under the Securities Act of 1933 or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction. make securitization economically infeasible; and 4) the wide range of opinions on life expectancies of legacy portfolios (although life expectancies have significantly converged since year-end 2008), and the divergence of actual results to expected results for such legacy portfolios with lives underwritten by certain medical underwriters. Therefore, although A.M. Best has been observing the evolution of the life settlement industry since 2003, A.M. Best issued its first final debt rating associated with a life settlement securitization, Fieldstone Securitization I LLC 1 (Fieldstone I), in January 2009. A.M. Best provided private debt ratings on about $2.54 billion of the Fieldstone I securities that were Exhibit 2 Parties Involved in Life Settlement Securitizations Issuer The issuer normally is a bankruptcy-remote entity established for the sole purpose of purchasing life settlements; issuing securities collateralized by life settlements; and holding other assets for the sole purpose of servicing the interests of the noteholders. The responsibility of the issuer is outlined in the indenture of the transaction. Providers Providers are licensed entities that purchase insurance policies directly from sellers or licensed brokers or agents authorized to act for sellers. They are responsible for making sure that all transfer-related documentation and sale documentation packages conform to applicable state or federal statutes, laws, rules and regulations relating to consumer protection and insurance and life settlement practices and procedures. Providers present policies to the issuer pursuant to an origination agreement. Medical Examiners Medical examiners provide comprehensive reviews of medical records and mortality profiles on the insureds looking to sell their insurance policies. The mortality profile provided by the medical examiners includes a summary of pertinent medical conditions as well as a determination of life expectancy. The issuer usually requires providers to engage the services of at least two independent medical examiners to evaluate the life expectancies of the insureds. Adviser for Inconsistency This adviser performs Inconsistency Checks verifying that medical records are consistent with the original insurance applications. Medical examiners sometimes can provide this service. regarding deaths, and any changes to policy features; Trustee The trustee performs all the duties it is assigned in the transaction s indenture. In general, the trustee is responsible for holding the bonds/notes for the benefit of the noteholders; for holding the security granted by the issuer over its assets; and for making payments and performing certain other obligations pursuant to the indenture. The trustee also holds all documents delivered to the issuer in connection with each life settlement. In addition, the trustee performs certain duties related to documenting life insurance policy acquisitions, fund transfers and submission of claims for payment under life insurance policies on the instructions of the collateral manager. Actuaries Actuaries can play an important role by helping to determine the appropriate mortality tables for the transaction; assessing the reasonability of the mortality/survivorship schedule provided by medical examiners; performing an underwriting review of the medical examiners used in the transaction; and helping the issuer determine the liquidation value of life settlements. Insurance Companies The insurance companies that issued the life insurance policies in the transaction are critical because they must be notified of the transfer of the policy s ownership, they can provide policy illustrations to help with policy optimization, and they are responsible for sending notices to the issuer about the policies and for sending the death benefits to the issuer. Collateral Manager The collateral manager is responsible for choosing the policies that will be included in the transactions. This manager s specific responsibilities may include: confirming that the eligibility criteria for inclusion in a portfolio are satisfied; performing policy optimization to minimize premium payments and maximize death benefits; delivering the sales documentation package to the trustee; liquidating policies when necessary; determining which policies should lapse in the event of a liquidity crisis; and determining how much to reduce death benefits in order to reduce premium payments in a liquidity crisis. Servicer some of the responsibilities of the servicer may include: contacting the insureds or their representatives to verify the current life/death status of the insureds; further optimizing premiums when necessary; maintaining correspondence with carriers to monitor any changes to the insurance policies; facilitating the collection of death benefits upon the death of insureds by acquiring copies of death certificates (and sometimes, filing the death claim with the insurance company) ; and providing reports to the issuer and/or collateral manager Attorneys Attorneys can help ensure that all documentation is complete and has been prepared in compliance with state insurance regulations, and that the integrity of the insurable interest doctrine is maintained. They also may provide comfort letters to verify the states in which providers are licensed, and they can help craft medical disclosure forms to comply with applicable privacy laws. In addition, attorneys ensure that the bankruptcy-remote entities from which the securities are issued have been created so as to protect the assets of such security holders. Accountants/Auditors Accountants can provide opinions about (1) the recognition of income and expenses in the bankruptcy-remote entity s country of domicile; (2) the tax implications, if any, of acquiring life settlements by the entity; (3) any special tax treatment/implications associated with the disposal of life settlements; and (4) identification of any tax withholding requirements that might be applicable to the entity. Auditors periodically provide opinions on the integrity of the balance sheet and income statement of the bankruptcy-remote entity. 2
Year 2 *Assumes death occurs on last day of year of the random draw. Exhibit 3 Life Settlement Securitization Diagram Pay Premium & Draw Again in Year 3 Died in Year 3 Don t Pay Premium From Year 4 On & Collect Death Criteria Benefits Custodian, Trustee, Escrow Agent Collateral Manager Policyholders Actuaries Broker Broker Broker Primary Medical Examiner Provider Provider Provider Duplicate Medical Examiner Cash to Providers for Policies Sale of Policies Pursuant to Origination Agreements Issuer (Bankruptcy- Remote Vehicle) Cash Transfer Stop Loss Cover for Longevity Risk (Optional) Liquidity Facility (Optional) Tracking Agent Tax Advisers/ Auditors Counsel or Adviser to Check Inconsistency Between Medical Records & Initial Insurance Application (Sometimes Done by Medical Examiners) State & Local Regulatory Counsel for True Sale Transfer & Compliance Confirmation Investors Interest & Principal Private Placement Agent (for Bonds/Notes Distribution) collateralized by about $8.40 billion in initial face value of life settlements. the parties involved in typical life settlement securitization transactions. The further growth of life settlement securitization will depend on: increased clarity and standardization of the general methods for predicting life expectancies of insureds (including the public release of data on the performance of medical underwriters); the transparency of the pricing of life settlements and of the fees earned by the various intermediaries in the transactions; the extent to which the life settlement industry provides safeguards regarding the identities, health conditions and financial status of the insureds; effective industry regulatory oversight and self-policing; the continued refinement of rating agency standards for assessing the credit risks associated with such transactions; and the pace of the emergence of new initiatives supported by the life insurance industry to provide alternatives to the secondary market for life insurance policies. Exhibits 2 and 3 describe and illustrate A.M. Best s Evaluation Policy The acquisition of new life settlements for securitizations is fraught with uncertainties: the extent to which the sellers of the The reader should be aware that A.M. Best classifies life settlements securitizations as an insurance-linked mortality/longevity/ morbidity transaction. Transactions in this category have been mostly used by insurance companies over the past seven years to fund their operations, improve capital management or hedge their risks. These transactions include: Regulation XXX and Regulation AXXX securitizations, extreme mortality catastrophe bonds, disability reserve securitizations, embedded value securitizations, and life insurance and annuity arbitrage securitizations. This is the fourth revision of the methodology which outlines A.M. Best Co. s considerations in rating securities backed by life settlements. Prior versions of this methodology were published on Oct. 19, 2004, Sept. 1, 2005, March 24, 2008, and Nov. 24, 2009. insurance policies have established insurable interest in the lives of the insureds; the price of the life settlements; the estimated 3
life expectancies of the individuals who sell their insurance policies; the availability of an ample pool of policies to satisfy the requirement for the transactions; the extent to which the various intermediaries involved in facilitating the sale of insurance policies have adhered to legal and regulatory requirements; and other factors that can make building a suitable life settlement portfolio challenging. Due to these uncertainties, A.M. Best issues two types of evaluations for securities backed by life settlements: 1) a Preliminary Assessment and 2) a Long-Term Debt Rating (Debt Rating). These analyses represent different levels of certainty associated with the transaction, as further described below. 1. Preliminary Assessment A Preliminary Assessment generally is issued to securities that are to be backed by a projected portfolio of life settlements that will be purchased over a specified period or are to be backed by an existing portfolio. It can also be issued to securities that are to be collateralized by identified pools of life settlements that the arranger intends to purchase pursuant to a securitization. Since the life settlements may not yet have been purchased, the Preliminary Assessment is given only if the issuer (i.e., the bankruptcy-remote entity issuing the securities in the transaction) indicates to A.M. Best that it intends eventually to acquire a Debt Rating on securities backed by in-place life settlement collateral. Please note that a Preliminary Assessment is valid only at the time of issue; is not updated (unless the issuer explicitly requests an 4 update); and is communicated only to the issuer. Further, the Preliminary Assessment is not considered a rating (as fully described in the engagement documents) and generally reflects only the economics of the life settlement securitization without considering the qualitative issues such as insurable interest, medical underwriting policies and procedures, servicing of the life settlement portfolios and other significant qualitative issues. 2. Long-Term Debt Rating (Debt Rating) An issuer seeking a Debt Rating must have acquired 100% of the life settlements necessary for the transaction (or will acquire the life settlements no later than the closing date of the transaction) and met the conditions outlined in this methodology. A.M. Best expects the issuer to conform to any disclosure requirements for registered securities as mandated by applicable securities laws or by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In order to issue a debt rating, A.M. Best requires a nearly-finished version of the indenture and/or offering memorandum from the attorneys engaged by the issuer. In addition, all essential elements of the transaction should be in place. Please note that it is not necessary for the issuer to seek a Preliminary Assessment before seeking a Debt Rating. For example, an issuer that already has accumulated or purchased a portfolio of life settlements could seek a Debt Rating without seeking a Preliminary Assessment. Analyses Based on Existing or Newly Formed Portfolio of Life Settlements A.M. Best generally prefers to rate securities backed by new life settlements that have been purchased policy by policy over a period of about 12 to 18 months or less. However, A.M. Best is aware that there are large pools of aged life settlements for sale by institutional investors or providers that wish to liquidate their holdings. Acquiring an existing portfolio eliminates the ramp-up period, which can be extensive for life settlement transactions, and may mitigate some of the other uncertainties associated with purchasing policies over time. Buyers of existing portfolios, however, run the risk of inheriting the legal and regulatory risks inherent in the manner in which the portfolios were originated, and in not being able to obtain up-to-date medical underwriting on the lives in the portfolios. Thus it may take a longer period of time to evaluate the risks associated with existing pools and these pools may require more extensive legal and origination reviews. A.M. Best, under certain situations, may make its decision on whether to rate securities collateralized by an existing life settlement portfolio based on various factors including (but not limited to): the original life settlement eligibility criteria; the specific medical underwriters used and the availability of any and all life expectancy projections on the lives in the portfolio; when the medical
underwriter determined the life expectancies of the lives in the portfolio; the ease of the legal transfer of the portfolio to the issuer; the availability of the data needed for surveillance of the transaction (as A.M. Best s Analytical Approach The A.M. Best Insurance-Linked Securities Group is responsible for rating securities collateralized by life settlements. The mortality profiles of the insureds, as provided by reputable medical underwriters, are used in simulating the maturities in the entire life settlement portfolio. In addition, the probabilities of impairment of the insurance companies and the assumed recoveries are applied to the transaction. These factors, along with the face value of each life settlement, the premium for each policy and the projected increases in premiums (if any) in the event the insureds live longer than expected are Rating Considerations and Requirements 1. Types of Policies Permitted/Conditions on Policies Issuers of securities backed by life settlements can include life insurance policies such as: universal life, variable universal life, whole life, variable whole life, term life, joint survivorship and group policies. A.M. Best also allows term policies that are convertible or exchangeable to permanent policies without a new medical evaluation and without a new contestability or suicide provision. The anticipated maximum increase in premiums at the time of conversion or exchange must be disclosed. Term policies that are neither convertible nor exchangeable also are allowed in the transaction. There is, however, a 10% limit on the number of lives covered by term policies in the pool and a 10% limit on the aggregate face value of the term policies in the pool. Since group policies are subject to the risk that the sponsoring employer, union or association will become insolvent, A.M. Best allows only convertible group policies in the collateral pool. The general rules related to the features of the insurance policies in life settlement securitizations are: Only policies issued by U.S. insurance companies on U.S. residents are allowed; Assignment of the policy to another party should not be restricted; described in the last section of this document); proven historical mortality experience of the portfolio; and the availability of legal opinions verifying adherence to insurable interest laws. considered in arriving at the cash flows that will service the securities and the issuer s operating expenses. The end result of A.M. Best s analysis is a determination of the default probability of the securities, which then is correlated to an idealized default probability matrix. This process, in conjunction with meeting various stress scenarios and qualitative considerations, helps the A.M. Best rating committee establish the credit rating on the securities based on A.M. Best s credit market scale. The rating considerations and requirements are described below. Fractional shares of policies generally are not allowed; Confirmation is required that the policy is in force and is not within the grace period; No restrictions should exist on the payment of the full, current net death benefits due the beneficiary in the event of the insured s death, except for nonpayment of the current premiums; Confirmation is required that nothing prevents the payment of insurance benefits in one lump sum; and Verification is required that the policy is not encumbered by any other party. 2. Service Providers A. Medical Underwriters A.1 Mortality Ratings and Life Expectancy Estimates Medical underwriters use a numerical rating system developed by reinsurers to determine how an individual s mortality differs from a standard risk. In general, standard risk is given a value of 100%, which represents a unit of risk. The system assigns debits and credits to a life where debits are factors that increase a person s mortality over a standard risk and credits are factors that decrease a person s mortality over a standard risk. For example, 5
an individual might have coronary heart disease that may be assigned a debit of 150%, and if that person has had bypass surgery to manage the ailment, he or she may earn credits of 25%. When the debits and credits are summed, the person has a net debit balance of 125%. If a standard risk is considered to have a table rating of 100%, then this risk relative to standard will have a rating of 225%. This can be interpreted to mean that the probability that this individual will die is 125% higher than that of a standard risk i.e., 225% of a standard risk. It is important to recognize that one of the significant tasks a medical underwriter has to undertake is to determine what is a standard risk, since the mortality rating is a relative measure of the probability of death, not an absolute measure. Authors Brackenridge, Croxson and Mackenzie put it succinctly in the fifth edition of Brackenridge s Medical Selection of Life Risks: The underwriting of substandard lives uses comparative mortality to judge substandard risks. Simply put, in order for a condition to be viewed as substandard, mortality observed among those people having the condition, must be greater than the mortality otherwise expected. And in order to know what mortality to expect, a reference mortality experience must be available. No matter the medical underwriter, the standard risk class should represent a combination of risks that are substandard as well as risks that are above standard not just risks of healthy individuals. To arrive at a life expectancy for most lives, the medical underwriter applies the mortality rating to its standard Exhibit 4 Disease Diversity Disease or Category Examples Maximum Limits Cardiovascular Coronary Artery Disease, Arrhythmia, Other 50% (e.g. Heart Valve Disease) Cerebrovascular Stroke, Carotid Artery, Transient Ischemic 20% Attack Dementia Alzheimer s, Multi-Infarct 20% Cancer Lung, Prostate, Breast, Hematological, All 25% Other Cancers Diabetes 10% Respiratory Diseases Emphysema, Asthma, Sleep Apnea, Chronic 20% Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Neurological Disorders Parkinson s, Lou Gehrig s Disease (ALS) 15% (Excluding Alzheimer s) Other Renal Failure, Peripheral Vascular, etc. 20% No Disease 100% Multiple 40% HIV/AIDS 0% mortality experience, otherwise known as the reference mortality experience in the passage above. Because each medical underwriter uses its own mortality tables and has its own method of determining debits and credits to account for diseases, lifestyle and mortality improvements, it is difficult to derive a mortality curve for an insured unless one knows the specific standard table used by that medical underwriter. For this very reason, one who receives a mortality rating from a medical underwriter for an insured also should get the corresponding standard mortality table that is used to derive the life expectancy; otherwise, the data set is incomplete for the purposes of analyzing mortality risk. The life settlement industry has surmised, however, that most medical underwriters currently use some version of the 2008 Valuation Basic Table (2008 VBT) as standard a conclusion that is probably correct in most cases. It should be noted that A.M. Best views favorably standard mortality tables of medical underwriters that have been created with the help of qualified actuaries especially those who are familiar with older age mortality patterns. A medical underwriter can provide some or all of the following information: 1) its standard mortality tables upon which debits and credits are applied; 2) a mortality rating (i.e., 100% + net debits and credits) that the medical underwriter applies to its base mortality table to derive the life expectancy for each insured; 3) a life expectancy estimate for each insured (including the joint life-expectancy estimates for second-to-die policies); 4) a mortality or survivorship schedule for each insured (given medical impairments); 5) the primary disease category for each insured, if one has been identified; and 6) a report that validates the historical accuracy of the medical underwriter s life-expectancy projections (i.e., actual to expected results). The primary disease is the impairment for which the most debits have been assigned and that accounts for 50% or more of the total debits. If no single impairment accounts for 50% or more of the total debits, then the disease category should be classified as Multiple. The categorization of diseases as described in Section 4A will help ensure the disease diversity of the portfolio is sufficient to mitigate any cures of the diseases suffered by the insureds. Exhibit 4 shows the diseases typically found in life settlement pools. 6
For investors, two of the most important factors in evaluating life settlements are longevity risk and the potential for medical underwriters to systematically misestimate life expectancies. A.M. Best has observed that life settlement portfolios accumulated about eight years ago or so are showing signs that maturities (i.e., deaths) are not keeping pace with the projections made by medical underwriters when the portfolios originally were formed. A.M. Best also has observed that over the past several years, medical underwriters have been issuing more conservative life expectancies for the lives they have evaluated. As an example, 47% of the current life expectancies issued by medical examiners were less than or equal to 144 months (versus 51% previously). This may reflect more conservative methodologies by medical underwriters and/or the possibility that medical underwriters are determining life expectancies for healthier individuals than before. Exhibit 5 shows the typical distribution of life expectancies issued by medical underwriters for individuals aged 65 and older, as observed by A.M. Best over the past three years. The table shows that 9.20% of all life expectancies issued were between 72 months and 96 months, and only about 17.00% were less than or equal to 96 months. The table is important because it shows that the highly coveted low life expectancies sought by some investors in life settlements just are not plentiful. To further illustrate why the supply of short life expectancies is limited, it is useful to observe the life expectancies of a 75-year-old, male nonsmoker the typical profile of individuals likely to be in a pool of life settlements. Exhibit 6 shows the life expectancy of 75-yearolds based on various mortality ratings applied to the 2008 VBT (age last birthday). A 100% mortality rating applied to the 2008 VBT suggests that in the aggregate, the insureds being evaluated die based on the standard pattern established by the table. A 200% mortality rating suggests that the insureds die at twice the rate of the standard pattern established by the 2008 VBT, and so on. The mortality ratings, therefore, generally indicate the relative severity of diseases ailing the insureds. As shown in Exhibit 6, a 75-year-old, male nonsmoker has a normal (unimpaired) life expectancy (based on 100% mortality rating) of about 14 years. The mortality ratings generally issued by medical underwriters for the impaired lives of this age, sex and smoking status normally would range from 300% down to 150%, which translates to life expectancies between approximately nine years and 12 years. To achieve a life expectancy of about seven years or less for individuals in this cohort, the mortality rating would need to be about 520% or more rare mortality ratings for individuals with the profile under consideration. While medical underwriters, in general, have been issuing higher life expectancies than ever before, data evaluated by A.M. Best still show differences in the life expectancies issued by various medical underwriters on the exact same lives. A.M. Best compared life expectancies issued by three major medical underwriters in 2007 on the exact same 909 Exhibit 5 Typical Distribution of Life Expectancies For Ages 65 & Older Life Expectancy Range (Months) Frequency Distribution Cumulative Probability <=24 0.35% 0.35% >24 <=48 2.23% 2.58% >48 <=72 5.17% 7.75% >72 <=96 9.20% 16.95% >96 <=120 12.74% 29.69% >120 <=144 18.04% 47.73% >144 <=168 19.18% 66.91% >168 <=192 16.69% 83.60% >192 <=216 10.00% 93.60% >216 <=240 4.81% 98.41% >240 <=264 1.25% 99.67% >264 0.33% 100.00% Exhibit 6 Life Expectancy as a Function of Mortality Rating* Based on a 75-Year-Old Male Nonsmoker. Years to Maturity 15 12 9 6 3 7 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 500% 550% Mortality Rating 600% 650% 700% 750% 800% 850% 900% 950% 1000% 1050% *Based on 2008 VBT (Age Last Birthday). LE is defined as the weighted average time to death. Exhibit 9 Distribution of Portfolio Economic Value 1050%
lives. The ages ranged from 75 to 79, and the male/female split was 66%/34% the typical ages and gender distribution found in life settlement pools. After calculating the average life expectancies for each of the three medical underwriters, the largest difference of average life expectancies issued by any two medical underwriters was 24 months. The smallest difference was eight months. In 2009, A.M. Best compared life expectancies issued by the same medical underwriters on 200 lives with approximately the same profile as the prior version of the methodology after the substantial changes some of these underwriters made to their methodologies at the end of 2008. After calculating the average life expectancies for each of the three medical underwriters, the largest difference in average life expectancies issued by any two medical underwriters was about 10 months. The smallest difference was about three months. Thus, A.M. Best has concluded that there indeed has been a marked level of convergence of new life expectancies issued by medical underwriters based on this sample. Exhibit 7 shows the life Exhibit 7 Comparison of Life Expectancies Issued By Major Medical Underwriters Originated in 2007 Underwriter or Earlier Underwriter With Longest LE - - 8 months shorter 3 months shorter Underwriter With Second Longest LE Originated From Year-End 2008 Underwriter With Shortest LE 24 months shorter 10 months shorter expectancies issued by three major medi- Exhibit 8 Effect of Life Expectancy Increase On Internal Rate of Return Increase in LE (Months) Internal Rate of Return (%) 0 12.4 3 11.6 6 10.7 9 10 12 9.2 15 8.5 18 7.8 21 7.1 24 6.5 27 5.9 30 5.3 33 4.7 36 4.3 cal underwriters in A.M. Best s comparative study. Differences in life expectancies among the major medical underwriters generally mean that one would arrive at a different price for an insurance policy depending on what medical underwriter is used in the price calculation a lower life expectancy necessarily means a higher price for the policy. In a very competitive marketplace where policies are scarce, some industry intermediaries who buy policies on behalf of the ultimate investors may have an incentive to encourage the use of lower life expectancies for pricing purposes, because it gives them a better chance of winning the bidding contest for the policies and maintaining the internal rate of return (IRR) thresholds set by their clients. The effect of life expectancy adverse development on a life settlement portfolio s IRR can be dramatic. Exhibit 8 shows the IRR of an actual portfolio of about 150 policies with premiums optimized to be equal to the cost of insurance. The IRR calculation incorporates just the cost of the portfolio purchase, the premium payments and the death benefits. The exhibit shows the decrease in IRR as the life expectancy is increased from three months to 36 months. When the aggregate life expectancy is 24 months longer than is projected, the IRR goes from 12.4% to 6.5% cutting the original IRR nearly in half. Of course, the relationship between life expectancies and IRRs will vary depending on a host of factors, such as the original portfolio life expectancy, the premium schedule and the cost of the portfolio. However, the trend of a dramatically lower IRR as life expectancy increases by more than one year generally will be consistent across portfolios of life settlements. A.M. Best s experience has shown that the mortality ratings typically assigned by reputable medical underwriters rarely exceed 500% of their base mortality tables and that assigned mortality ratings generally decrease with age. A.M. Best recognizes that in cases where traditional underwriting is not applicable or in cases that merit extra mortality for a specified period of time (i.e., flat extras ), the mortality rating could exceed the 500% threshold. However, A.M. Best does not believe that issuers can find enough supply of such impaired lives unless the ramp-up period for their portfolios is several years. Therefore, 8
A.M. Best imposes a mortality rating cap of 500% on all lives in the life settlement pool, unless the medical underwriter that has issued the mortality ratings or the life expectancies in question shows precisely how it has applied net debits and credits to its standard mortality tables to arrive at its life expectancies, and a third medical underwriter or a physician specialist is used to corroborate the mortality ratings or life expectancies. Should an issuer decide not to seek a life expectancy from a medical underwriter for an insured in a life settlement pool, A.M. Best will assume that the life expectancy is the same as that derived from a standard mortality table, such as the 2008 VBT and will stress the mortality rates for modeling purposes. To help mitigate the effect of systematic errors by medical underwriters in the determination of life expectancies, A.M. Best generally requires that two independent medical underwriters provide an evaluation of the health condition of the insureds in the collateral pool based on the medical records obtained from the primary physicians of the insureds. An exception may be made for older life settlement portfolios that were underwritten by one medical underwriter (depending on the specific medical underwriter used) and for which obtaining a second life expectancy would be difficult or prohibitive. For the sake of clarity, A.M. Best primarily uses the mathematical definition of life expectancy, which is the weighted average time to maturity of the lives/cashflows in the life settlement pool. Underwriting reports provided by medical underwriters normally are completed within a few months of the insured s last medical visit with his or her physician. A.M. Best recommends that fresh medical underwriters reports be obtained if more than 12 months have elapsed between the first life expectancy reports and the purchase of the policy for the pool. Obtaining up-to-date medical records on the insureds, however, poses a potential problem as federal and state confidentiality laws restrict long-term access to such records. The federal medical-record confidentiality law, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA), provides minimum federal standards for obtaining authorization to obtain an insured s medical records. State confidentiality laws, which sometimes can be more restrictive than HIPAA, also must be observed. In acquiring life settlement collateral for a securitization, it is up to the issuer to ensure that the medical records authorization forms signed by insureds are broad enough to allow for continued access (by the issuer) to up-todate medical records over at least a 12-month period or over the longest period allowed by applicable laws. This means that the issuer would have to ensure that the medical authorization forms comply with HIPAA s privacy requirements. Alternatively, the issuer may have to explore other methods of receiving health records, such as using limited healthcare powers of attorney or providing incentives to the insureds for providing updated medical records. A.M. Best recommends that issuers consult legal counsel for advice on any methods they choose to use to ensure that medical records can be obtained over the life of the portfolio in accordance with HIPAA s requirements in the event that the life settlement pool has to be liquidated. As a practical matter, it is unlikely that a buyer of a life settlement will have continual access to the medical records of the insured once the insured has been paid for his or her policy, even if the buyer has a limited health-care power of attorney. First, as time elapses, the insured may move and engage the services of a new physician, who may not be willing to comply with the request for medical records. Second, the insured has no incentive to provide medical records to the buyer of his or her insurance policy, and it may not be practical for such a buyer to enforce the right to obtain the medical records through legal action, even if there is an enforceable limited health-care power of attorney. With older life settlement portfolios available for sale, A.M. Best is seeing more proposals for life settlement securitizations that contain life settlements with associated life expectancies that were issued years ago. Some of the major medical underwriters, however, have changed their standard mortality tables and underwriting protocols considerably with some of the most dramatic changes occurring around year-end 2008. A.M. Best feels that medical underwriting reports should be updated even if such updates are done with the old medical records. In general, the level of credence A.M. Best ascribes to medical underwriting for legacy portfolios depends on the level of updates. The level of medical updates 9
from highest (most reliable) to lowest are as follows: 1) full medical underwriting with new medical records (on an as is basis) performed by established medical underwriters; 2) full medical underwriting with old medical records (on an as was basis) performed by established medical underwriters; 3) partial medical underwriting based solely on new mortality tables performed by established medical underwriters; 4) updates by others (including actuaries) based on their knowledge of how the mortality tables and/or underwriting procedures of the various medical underwriters have changed over time. The adjustments made by A.M. Best will depend on the level of medical underwriting updates as described above, and on: 1) A.M. Best s knowledge of the differences among the medical underwriters based on its evaluation of average life expectancies by cohorts, and 2) the date of the original underwriting for example, medical underwriting performed in 2001 may be viewed differently from that performed in 2005. A.2 Underwriting Evaluation Of Medical Underwriters A.M. Best believes that best practices in the life settlement industry call for an independent actuarial firm or consultant with demonstrated expertise in the life settlement market to be engaged to perform an audit/ review of the processes and procedures medical underwriters used to determine life expectancies. A.M. Best expects the issuer s representatives and/or the medical underwriter to fully discuss the following regarding the medical underwriter s underwriting practices: Underwriting methodology and philosophy; Physician/underwriter evaluator s background and credentials; Standard mortality table(s) used to determine life expectancy estimates; Initial and ongoing training of staff; Self-auditing procedures (internal audits); Frequency of external/independent audits; The extent of the self-evaluation of the medical underwriter s efficacy (i.e., results of experience studies from internal database); Record keeping and process flow; Source materials such as reinsurance manuals and clinical studies for specific diseases; Extent and frequency of updates of source materials/reinsurance manual; Recent changes and reasons for changes in the methodology used by medical underwriters; and Comparative analyses of files selected by the actuarial firm or consultant reviewing medical underwriter assessments; amount of files selected will depend on the number that the actuarial firm or consultant believes will help it form an informed opinion on the medical underwriter s underwriting guidelines. Among the questions that the issuer and the medical underwriter should be prepared to answer are the following: What is the general nature of the adjustments made to the standard mortality table(s) used? Are flat extras used? If so, for what diseases? Are debits always additive? How are debits scaled back for co-morbidity? Under what circumstances are mortality tables abandoned and other methods applied for estimating life expectancies? Are mortality improvements factored into the life-expectancy figures? When using mortality tables, is age near or age last the applicable age used for the analysis? What are the maximum and minimum ages for which a life expectancy will be provided? What are the maximum and minimum mortality ratings issued? What is the maximum age of medical records for an evaluation? (For example, if medical records are 15 months old, will a life expectancy still be issued?) When medical records have aged, are the life expectancies provided adjusted for the period between the time the records were created and the time of the medical underwriter s evaluation? Is a survivorship schedule provided? Does the medical underwriter provide joint life-expectancy calculations? 10
B. Policy Providers The provider purchases insurance policies from a seller or a licensed broker or agent authorized to act for the seller. The purchases of life settlements are made through licensed providers approved by the collateral manager of the transaction. In the case of life settlement securitizations, the provider generally purchases policies for the issuer pursuant to an origination agreement between the issuer and the provider. A.M. Best expects that the purchase agreement will comply with all applicable state insurance laws and regulations governing life settlement or viatical financing transactions between the issuer and the life settlement providers. Issuers must identify the providers they intend to use or have used for their transactions. A.M. Best s view on the providers will depend on the following considerations: The various states in which the providers are licensed to conduct business (in states where licensing is required); The partnerships between the providers and their network of policy suppliers and brokers; The providers prior policy purchasing experience for institutional investors; The providers historical policy acquisition pace; The providers infrastructure and systems for handling the administrative tasks and regulatory compliance issues associated with life settlements; Any significant pending legal matters against the provider; Any business practices that enhances disclosure for investors and insureds selling their policies in the secondary market; and Other factors that may give A.M. Best confidence in the transaction. If a provider has any ongoing financial interest in the transaction aside from its capacity as the source of policies for the issuer, A.M. Best requires full disclosure of that relationship. A.M. Best believes that best practices in the life settlement industry dictate that a provider should not be the sole determinant of the policies that are to be purchased for the transaction. The provider certainly can present policies to the issuer s representative (such as the collateral manager for the transaction), but the issuer should be the ultimate arbiter as to what policies should be in the transaction s portfolio. One way to remove absolute discretion over which policies should be purchased for the transaction from the provider is for the issuer to give the provider a list of purchasing criteria; to tell the provider which medical underwriters will be used in the transaction; and to have the collateral manager for the transaction put each life settlement through a designated pricing model which determines rates of return for each policy. One of the issues that has drawn the attention of life settlement market observers is the transaction cost paid by insureds to sell their insurance policies in the secondary markets. The transaction cost consists of payments for providers, brokers and insurance agents involved in the sale. A.M. Best s analysis indicates that the typical transaction cost can be as high as 50% to 100% of the price paid to the insured. Therefore, an insurance policy for which the insured is paid, for example, 15% of the face value ultimately may be sold to investors for 23% to 30% of face value. Although the money paid to the insured still may be higher than the value he or she would receive if the policy were surrendered to the insurance company that issued the policy, there is something to be said for the insured being aware of the various transaction costs associated with the policy he or she has sold in the secondary market. A.M. Best believes best practices in the life settlement industry dictate that the seller of an in-force policy is fully aware of the various fees paid to intermediaries who facilitate the transaction. C. Attorney Review of Insurable Interest, Licensing Requirements and Sales Documentation Packages One of the most fundamental concepts in life insurance is that of insurable interest. The insurable interest doctrine provides that in general, the beneficiary of an insurance policy must have 1) some relationship by blood or by law to the person being insured or 2) must have an economic interest in having the life, health or bodily safety of the individual insured continue. The insurable interest doctrine makes it possible, for example, for an individual to buy an insurance policy on his or her parents or business partner. 11
In the special case where an individual procures a policy insuring his or her own life and pays the premiums for the policy, that person is said to have an unlimited insurable interest in his or her own life and, as such, may designate any person as the beneficiary of the policy. That beneficiary need not have any particular relationship to the insured. When the policy owner is not the insured, the beneficiary must be a person or an entity with insurable interest in the insured s life. Insurable interest may be questionable with certain so-called premium financed policies where an irrevocable life insurance trust borrows money to pay premiums generally over the first two to five years of the policy s in-force period. A.M. Best expects that the issuer will conduct reviews of the origination documents of the life settlements, including trust documents (if applicable) to reasonably ensure that insurable interest laws are observed. In general, after a provider makes a purchase offer to the seller of the insurance policy (normally, the insured), a sales documentation package is drafted. Through this documentation package, the issuer will contract to purchase from the seller all rights, titles and interests in the life settlement policy. The sales documentation package must be complete and must follow all applicable state insurance laws and regulations. The typical items that the issuer s attorneys review are as follows: The completeness of the sales documentation package (for each insured) for compliance with established regulations for life settlement acquisitions; The states in which each provider in the transaction is licensed to conduct business (for states that require such licenses) and the insurance regulations related to life settlements or viaticals for those states; and Any outstanding, significant legal issues surrounding the provider. D. Servicer The servicer of a life settlement portfolio is one of the most important service providers in a life settlement securitization because the success of the transaction ultimately depends on the timely payout of death benefits by insurance carriers. Such timely payouts cannot occur unless the policies remain in-force in the most cost-effective manner as possible and the death benefits are collected as efficiently as possible. A servicer s responsibilities can include the following: 1) making sure that the insurance policies stay in force by the timely payment of premiums to the proper carriers; 2) further optimizing premiums when necessary; 3) filing the necessary documents for policy conversions; 4) maintaining confidential up-to-date health records; 5) ordering new life expectancies, if necessary; 6) tracking the status of insureds and making the issuer aware of the death of such insureds on a timely basis; 7) maintaining correspondence with carriers to monitor any changes to the insurance policies; 8) facilitating the collection of death benefits upon the death of insureds; 9) providing reports to the issuer regarding deaths, and any changes to policy features; and 10) backing up data and providing the means for transferring such data to back-up servicers. A.M. Best will conduct a review of the transaction s servicer to assess whether they have experience in servicing large pools of lives and whether they have the technological resources to perform such functions. Issuers that feel they can service the life settlements without employing an independent professional servicer must demonstrate to A.M. Best that they have the experience and the systems to track lives and to perform the major tasks typically performed by life settlement servicers. E. Collateral Manager A.M. Best expects the issuer to enter a collateral management agreement with a collateral manager or to demonstrate the ability to perform the duties of a collateral manager. Some of the duties of the collateral manager in life settlement securitizations include: Managing the selection and acquisition (through approved providers) of the life settlements; Optimizing the features of the insurance policies backing the life settlements; Determining the appropriate amount of the premium reserve; Determining whether to engage a stoploss insurer or obtain a liquidity facility for the transaction; Investing cash balances in approved, high-quality, short-term instruments; 12
Developing a liquidation plan for the life settlements; Determining the liquidation value of the life settlements; Updating mortality tables used in the transaction based on new information or new medical advances; Determining which policies should lapse in the event of a continued liquidity crisis; and Performing other duties in the interest of the transaction s security holders. Some of the factors that A.M. Best considers when evaluating a collateral manager are as follows: Experience in life settlement investments and portfolio optimization; Knowledge of insurance policy features or access to experienced consultants; Actuarial experience either on staff or through consultants; Staffing and resources necessary to support the collateral management activities; The quantitative skills to create financial models to select/manage a life settlement portfolio and to determine which policies to dispose of, lapse or modify (if necessary); and The systems and infrastructure necessary to carry out its duties. F. Backup Service Providers Backup servicing agreements are important in life settlement transactions, because the industry is in its development stage and servicers usually are small, unrated entities. A.M. Best recommends that issuers seek backup servicers (especially backup tracking agents) and collateral managers (which presumably also perform policy administration and optimization). A.M. Best recommends the use of an active backup servicer that has the ability to easily transition to the role of the primary portfolio servicer. The backup servicer should have the electronic systems in place to accept the data transmitted by the primary servicer and should be able to prepare reports on tracking activities as requested by A.M. Best. The backup collateral manager should meet the same general requirements described in Section 2E as to the level of expertise and experience. G. Auditors Public accountants play an important role in monitoring the activity of the bankruptcyremote entity that issues the life settlementbacked securities. Accountants assist in the evaluation and identification of GAAP internal control and reporting-related issues. In addition, they perform specific, year-end audits to express an opinion on the consolidated financial statements of the bankruptcyremote entity. A.M. Best requires the engagement of a certified public accounting firm to perform the following services: Perform audits of the books and records of the issuer (i.e., bankruptcy-remote entity); Issue a yearly report that expresses an opinion on the consolidated financial statements issued by the bankruptcyremote entity; Review the internal controls over cash receipts and disbursements performed at the legal entity; and Issue an opinion as to the GAAP consolidation requirements to the owners of the bankruptcy-remote entity. H. Arrangers of the Transaction The arrangers of the life settlement securitization transaction should define clearly their financial interest in the transaction. In addition, for arrangers that are not affiliates of large financial institutions, A.M. Best expects to be presented with their backgrounds, including their previous occupations and experience with life settlements. 3. Policy In-Force Period/Proper Transfer of the Policy Any policy contemplated for the collateral in a life settlement securitization is required to have been in force for at least 24 months before being purchased in the secondary market. Converted policies are considered new policies if new contestability or suicide conditions are imposed on the policies. It is the issuer s responsibility to ensure that its providers keep track of the dates on which policies were acquired by the insureds and when the policies were sold in the secondary market. In addition, there should be some redundant checks and balances to ensure the proper 13
transfer of policies to the bankruptcy-remote vehicle and to ensure that such policies will be unencumbered by challenges from relatives, former spouses and others. Attorneys are best qualified to give an opinion on whether policy transfers have followed the proper protocols. 4. Diversity A. Disease/Insurance Company Exhibit 6 Diversity is an important factor in determining Function the composition of Mortality of the collateral Rating* pool for Life Expectancy as a Based on a 75-Year-Old life Male settlement Nonsmoker. transactions. In general, correlation among insureds in a life settlement 15 portfolio occurs when a cure is discovered for a disease suffered by two or more insureds, 12 because their life expectancies are increased simultaneously. Therefore, A.M. Best is unlikely to rate transactions based on only 9 one specific disease such as Alzheimer s or diabetes without applying severe stresses on the transactions. Years to Maturity 6 3 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% While life settlement portfolios are inherently diverse, based on the statistical distribution of disease categories as determined by the medical underwriters, A.M. Best nevertheless expects that issuers will observe the maximum limits Mortality shown Rating in Exhibit 4 on the broad disease categories in the collateral pool. The categorization of diseases is determined by the assignment of debits as described in Section 2A.1. 400% 450% 500% 550% 600% 650% 700% 750% 800% 850% 900% 950% 1000% 1050% *Based on 2008 VBT (Age Last Birthday). LE is defined as the weighted average time to death. Exhibit 9 Distribution of Portfolio Economic Value Portfolios of 100, 200, 300 and 400 lives with life expectancy of 9.6 years.* Frequency Distribution 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% Portfolio Economic Value as a Percentage of Total Death Benefits *Mean Economic Value = 19% of Total Death Benefits 100 200 300 400 Diversity of insurance companies also is important in life settlement transactions. A.M. Best recommends that the aggregate face value of the policies issued by any one insurance company not exceed 15%. If this threshold is exceeded, more stresses will be applied to the default probabilities assumed for the carriers backing the life settlements. B. Number of Lives, Policy Size The number of lives in a portfolio of life settlements can help dampen the volatility of the cash flows produced by A.M. Best s stochastic life settlement model, which is discussed later in this document. Exhibit 9 shows the effect of the number of lives on the economic value of a portfolio of 100, 200, 300 and 400 lives all with a portfolio life expectancy of 9.6 years. The cash flows (premium, death benefits and expenses) were discounted at 12%. The exhibit shows that the expected economic value of each portfolio, expressed as the percentage of total death benefits of each portfolio, was about 19%. The standard deviations of the portfolios economic values, expressed as a percentage of portfolio death benefits, were as follows: 3.8% for 100 lives, 2.7% for 200 lives, 2.2% for 300 lives and 1.9% for 400 lives. Naturally, the more lives in the pool, the narrower the standard deviation of the portfolio s economic value, but the desire to have a large portfolio must be balanced with: 1) the marginal benefit (in terms of narrowing the dispersion of economic values) gained by adding more lives to the portfolio, and 2) the fact that it can take a long time to accumulate a sizable portfolio of life settlements. For these reasons, A.M. Best believes that at least 300 lives are necessary to narrow the band of cash flow volatility in the Monte Carlo simulations described later in this methodology. If fewer lives are included in the life settlement portfolio, A.M. Best will apply additional stresses in evaluating the credit quality of the securities in the transaction. No one life should comprise more than 3.33% of the face value of the entire collateral pool. 1050% It is important to note that a flawed approach by the medical underwriters in either how they have constructed their standard mortality tables or how they determine and apply net debits and credits to these tables will not be ameliorated simply by having a large number 14
of lives in a life settlement pool. Such systematic errors will simply be duplicated across a larger portfolio. 5. Longevity Risk Mitigation Longevity risk is the risk that an insured lives longer than was reasonably predicted by medical underwriters. The longer the insured lives, the more premiums the owner of the life settlement will have to pay, and the further in the future the death benefits will be realized. Longevity risk typically can be managed by stop-loss insurance that allows the issuer to put the insurance policies to an insurer at a price equal to the face value of the policies if the insureds live a fixed number of years beyond the predicted life expectancy. Stop-loss insurance also can be structured to cover an entire portfolio by giving the issuer the option to put the entire portfolio to the insurer at a specific date for a specific price. The stop-loss insurer must be a rated entity. Please go to the A.M. Best Web site, www.ambest.com, for methodologies associated with the rating of reinsurers and insurers. A.M. Best will review the contract that covers the stop-loss provisions to ensure that it is indeed an unconditional obligation to pay claims during the life of the transaction. While A.M. Best does not require stop-loss insurance, such contingency insurance may enhance the transaction, depending on the cost to the issuer, although it comes with the additional credit risk of the insurer. At this writing, A.M. Best is not aware of any rated insurer or reinsurer that specializes in issuing life settlement stop-loss insurance. 6. Estimating Portfolio Residual Value A.M. Best s analytical model for life settlement securitizations generally shows that an issuer of securities with legal maturities less than 20 years likely will depend on the residual value of the portfolio of life settlements at maturity to meet its financial obligations to noteholders, if indeed there is a tertiary life settlement market at the maturity data of the transaction. Therefore, a comprehensive model for evaluating the credit risk of the securities has to use conservative assumptions about liquidation timing and liquidation prices if all the life settlements have not matured before the legal maturity date of the securities. To estimate the residual value of an aged life settlement portfolio, A. M. Best does not rely on the original estimates of mortality ratings and life expectancies issued by medical underwriters, as those estimates probably would be about 10 years old or more by the time the liquidation of the portfolio would take place. Instead, A.M. Best currently applies a mortality table such as the standard 2008 VBT (unadjusted for impairments); the applicable premium schedule for the policies (until the insureds are 100 years old); and various assumed discount rates to estimate the economic value of the remaining life settlements in the portfolio. Then, A.M. Best further haircuts this value to reflect the inefficiencies and extreme illiquidity of the life settlement market, and the fact that some of the life settlements may be unsalable due to insurable interest concerns. If the legal maturity of the securities is less than 20 years, A.M. Best requires a formal plan outlined in the legal document of the transaction for the liquidation of the portfolio to pay off the securities. Since the time needed to liquidate a portfolio of life settlements is difficult to determine, A.M. Best expects liquidation of the life settlement portfolio to begin at least two years before the maturity date of the securities, after considering the life settlements that are likely to mature in that two-year period. The liquidation value calculation should be determined with a mortality table, such as the standard 2008 VBT (unadjusted for impaired lives), and with stresses applied to this table as an extra measure of conservatism. It is important to note that if the premiums on the policies have been optimized, the liquidation value of the life settlements at the end of the transaction could be affected adversely. The reasons for such an effect are as follows: a) since premiums accelerate naturally with the cost of insurance, premiums can be extremely high at the time the portfolio would be liquidated; b) A.M. Best applies a standard mortality table to life settlements to calculate the liquidation value of the portfolio; and c) A.M. Best further stresses such calculated liquidation values to take into consideration the inefficiencies in the life settlement market and the possibility of insurable interest challenges. 15
7. Liquidation Prospects/Liquidity Risk Mitigation While the liquidation value of life settlements is important at the legal maturity of the transaction, it also is important during the life of the transaction if it becomes necessary to sell policies to meet the transaction s cash-flow needs. However, A.M. Best s life settlement model assumes that liquidation is not a viable option to meet liquidity needs during the term of the transaction because of: 1) the uncertainties surrounding the liquidation value of an individual life settlement; 2) the extensive amount of time and effort it might take to actually sell a life settlement; and 3) the dramatic effect excessive sales of life settlements would have on the transaction s future cash flows. In short, A.M. Best takes a dim view of any transaction that relies on the liquidation value of policies to meet short-term cash needs. A transaction s liquidity risk may be greater in its early years, especially since empirical evidence from various life settlement portfolios suggests that few deaths occur in the early years of the life settlement pools underwritten thus far. A common method of mitigating liquidity risk is to have adequate cash in a reserve fund to meet short-term cashflow needs. The disadvantage of this method is that a large amount of cash in reserve reduces the amount of life settlements the issuer can buy for the transaction. Another way to mitigate liquidity risk is with a liquidity facility from a rated financial institution. The liquidity facility can be used to pay premiums on the policies and/or interest to the noteholders. The financial institution offering the liquidity facility typically would place a lien on the life settlements in the transaction, and the repayment of the funds borrowed by the transaction usually is at the top of the transaction s priority of payment list or waterfall. Maintaining and using a liquidity facility can be beneficial if it is not expensive and if the floating-rate costs are swapped to fixed costs. The major disadvantage of a liquidity facility, however, is that it introduces the credit risk of the liquidity provider to the transaction. A.M. Best expects that the optimal size and term of the liquidity facility will be determined through the modeling of the transaction in order to ensure timely payment of premiums and/or interest and principal to noteholders. 8. Life Settlement Pricing The life settlement market still is developing, and there is no guarantee that any one policy provider or service provider will be in existence at the time the issuer is ready to acquire the policies or has completed its policy acquisition program. Therefore, A.M. Best will not consider the bargaining power of the issuer to achieve better prices on policies or services when evaluating the transaction for a Preliminary Assessment. A.M. Best requires that all prices of policies and services reflect the prices prevalent in the market at the time of the evaluation of the transaction, not just prices promised by a provider, and not theoretical prices developed from a model. As discussed in an earlier section, an issuer who has entered a financial arrangement with a provider (aside from the agreement for purchasing policies through the provider) must disclose the full nature of such an agreement. For the sake of clarity, the price that A.M. Best recognizes in life settlement transactions is the price that includes the fees paid to all the intermediaries involved in the transactions, such as fees paid to brokers, insurance agents, providers, etc. 9. Premium Optimization Issuers may choose to optimize premiums on certain types of insurance policies (such as universal life and variable universal life policies) by using the cash values in the policies to reduce premium payments or simply by reducing premium payments to the minimum levels necessary for keeping the policies in force. A.M. Best must be informed if the premiums on the representative policies upon which the rating is based have been altered in any way. Specifically, A.M. Best requests a monthly premium payment illustration showing premiums until the insured reaches age 100 or until the age at which the beneficiary is entitled to death benefits. If the collateral manager uses commercially available software to determine premium payments under various optimization schemes, A.M. Best expects a demonstration of such 16
software and comparisons between the software s output and some illustrations produced by the insurance companies that have issued the policies. If the collateral manager has developed its own software program for optimizing the policies, A.M. Best expects verification that the software can duplicate the results of some of the illustrations produced by the insurance companies. By doing so, A.M. Best is assured that the in-house software is able to produce reasonable results. As part of the optimization process, A.M. Best expects the collateral manager to consider scenarios under which charges that are realistically adjustable are increased to reasonable levels to observe the effect on the policies in terms of premium payments. A.M. Best may randomly sample the life settlements to observe the assumptions about the cost of insurance and expenses determined by the issuer. 10. Management Expertise A significant qualitative aspect of A.M. Best s analysis is the assessment of the issuer s expertise in life settlements and structured securities. A small number of participants comprise the life settlement industry. Its participants have developed reputations in various areas, such as the ability to source policies, integrity in soliciting objective life expectancies and other matters related to the efficient execution of life settlement transactions. A.M. Best expects the issuer (or its representatives) to demonstrate a high degree of knowledge about policy providers, tracking agents, medical underwriters and other significant service providers associated with the transaction. In addition, A.M. Best expects to be informed of any significant legal actions or complaints against any service provider that may be involved in the transaction. 11. General Legal Review/Tax Opinion/Documentation The following are some of the other required general opinions, conditions and verifications for setting up a transaction collateralized by life settlements: Unqualified legal opinion indicating that the transfer of life settlements from the seller to the issuer constitutes a true or absolute sale, not a pledge of collateral. Legal opinion stating that if the transferor becomes insolvent, neither the issuer nor its assets or liabilities would be substantively consolidated with the transferor. Unqualified legal opinion that the issuer will satisfy special-purpose, bankruptcy-remote criteria such as: Issuer s business must be restricted to the purchase of the life settlements and the issuance of the rated debt; Issuer may not incur any additional debt unless the additional debt is subordinated fully to the rated debt and the subordination is explicitly stated in the legal documents; Additional debt will not impair the rating of the rated debt; Issuer should have a separate corporate existence with independent officers and directors, separate books and records, and appropriate meetings of the board of directors to authorize corporate action; Issuer shall not engage in any dissolution, liquidation, consolidation, merger or asset sale (other than as provided in the relevant transaction documents) or amendment of its organizational documents so long as the rated securities are outstanding; All of the issuer s assets, such as the life settlements, the various proceeds accounts, the escrow accounts and all other assets that generate income for the structure, should be pledged to secure the issuer s debt; Tax opinion to the effect that the issuer would not be subject to federal, state or local taxes; If taxes are to be paid on the cash flow of the issuer, a tax opinion on the capitalization of certain expenses, including premium payments and fund-raising costs; and Written agreements with all service providers. Normal documentation associated with private placements such as: offering memorandum, trust indenture, trustee agreements, etc. Report on each policy detailing any discovered contradictions between the 17
original insurance application and the medical records of the insured. Disclosure of any agreements (written or unwritten) between the issuer and any other parties that outline the The following is a concise list of data requirements necessary for a Preliminary Assessment or a Debt Rating for most transactions. A more comprehensive list may be necessary depending on the exact structure of the transaction under consideration. A.M. Best will provide a Microsoft Excel template in which some of the data should be entered by the issuer s representatives. A.M. Best expects that some of the required information will be available in the term sheet of the transaction (for Preliminary Assessments) and in the indenture (for Debt Ratings). 1) Collateral For each life/policy in the life settlement securitization collateral pool, provide the following (as applicable): Age last birthday (ALB); Gender; Smoking status (smoking/non-smoking); Monthly face value (Death Benefits) up to age 100; Monthly premiums up to age 100; Any and all life expectancies from last full medical underwriting (medical underwriting done with up-to-date medical records); Any and all mortality ratings associated with the last full medical underwriting; First Duration (in months) the period in months between the first full medical underwriting and the first month of the securitization; Second Duration (in months) the period in months between the latest full medical underwriting and the first month of the securitization; if only medically underwritten once, the Second Duration should be equal to the First Duration; Unique identification number for each policy; Unique alpha-numeric identifier for primary life and secondary life (if joint) associated with each policy; Classification of the types of policies in the following categories: universal life, whole life, variable life, variable universal life, survivorship universal life, term, etc; 18 distribution of the residuals in the transactions after the rated debt has been fully redeemed. Anti-money-laundering provisions in the legal documents. Basic Data Requirements for Preliminary Assessments & Debt Ratings Policy expiration date, if applicable; In-force date of the policy; Date the policy was initially sold into the secondary market; Date the policy was acquired for the transaction; Disease code/category if available; State in which policy was issued (state of origination); Exact operating insurance carrier name and the corresponding A.M. Best number; Issuer Credit Rating of each of the unique operating insurance carriers; and Premium Financed Policies o Identify known and suspected premium financed policies. o Identify program names associated with these premium financed policies, if known. o Tabulate premiums already paid up to the first month of the securitization. o Identify Carrier Approved premium financing programs, if any. 2) Transaction Structure Size/tranches of securities to be issued. Size of unrated equity. Interest rates paid on the securities. Liquidity facility (including repayment terms and collateral liens). Reserve amount. Credit enhancements/guarantees. Waterfall o Clear outline of priority of payments. o Clear definition of what constitutes a default including specifics about whether negative amortization is allowed. o Specify if any negative amortization is allowed on the securities. o Specify any start-up and ongoing expenses Start-up expenses. Trustee. Administrative. Tax advisers.
Tracking agent. Rating agency. Collateral management. Auditors. Attorneys. Warehouse funding, if any. Medical underwriters. Actuaries. And other expenses. Evaluating the Credit Risk of the Securities 1. Mortality Profile of the Life Settlements The ratings of life settlement-backed securities are determined primarily by the mortality of the lives associated with the collateral pool and other factors related to credit and regulatory risks. (see Exhibit 10 for a list of the major risks to investors). The parameters necessary to gauge the mortality profile of the lives associated with life settlement pools include the insured s: age last birthday; gender; smoking status; documented specific impairments, assumed mortality improvements, lifestyle and other factors. Using these parameters, medical underwriters can provide 1) a standard mortality table upon which debits and credits are applied; 2) a mortality rating that the medical underwriter applies to its base mortality table to derive the life expectancy for each insured; 3) a life expectancy estimate for each insured (including the joint life expectancy estimates for second-to-die policies); 4) a mortality or survivorship schedule for each insured (given medical impairments); 5) the primary disease category for each insured, if one has been identified; and 6) any reports that validate the historical accuracy of the medical underwriters life-expectancy projections. If a medical underwriter publicly provides its standard mortality tables; the mortality ratings for the insureds in a life settlement pool; and its methodology for applying the mortality ratings to the tables, A.M. Best is willing to review and, perhaps, use the mortality tables for its analyses as long as they have been constructed with the help of a reputable independent actuarial firm that provides a report on the methodology used for constructing the tables. A.M. Best is aware, however, that some medical underwriters consider their standard mortality tables to be proprietary, and thus only provide life expectancies and mortality ratings. In these cases, A.M. Best will assume each medical underwriter s standard table is currently the 2008 VBT and solve for the mortality ratings that will yield such life expectancies and then apply those mortality ratings to the 2008 VBT. Please note that if A.M. Best derives mortality ratings that are significantly higher than the mortality ratings issued by the medical underwriter, A.M. Best will conclude that the medical underwriter s standard mortality tables are significantly different from the 2008 VBT. In such cases, A.M. Best may haircut the derived mortality rating. The resulting mortality ratings for insureds in the life settlement pool are used in the stochastic cash flow modeling. 2. Insurance Company Default Risk A.M. Best believes that general corporatebond default statistics are inappropriate for assessing insurer credit risks because of the unique regulatory and accounting Exhibit 10 Main Risks To Investors Origination Risk The risk that originators may have violated their fiduciary responsibilities to the insureds; originations have been done in contravention to existing state and federal regulations; and that originators have exposed the investor to insurable interest and fraud challenges by insurers. Risk of Life Expectancy Misestimation The risk that medical underwriters have systematically misestimated life expectancies and/ or that they have not followed established and reasonable standards for estimating life expectancies. Risk of Adverse Selection The risk that the insureds who sell policies to the life settlement market know more about their health than buyers, and thus may actually be healthier than the indications from medical records evaluated by medical underwriters. Servicer Risk The risk that the servicer charged with tracking deaths, optimizing policies, facilitating the collection of death benefits and making decisions related to keeping the policies in force is not competent to provide such services. Longevity Risk The risk that the life expectancy of insureds could increase due to cure discoveries, which means that investors will have to pay premiums longer than expected. Credit Risk of Insurers The risk that insurers may default on the payment of death benefits. 19
environment in which insurers operate, and because relatively few insurers issue public debt. As such, there are very few data points available to perform a meaningful insurance default study based on the generally accepted definition of default: missed interest or principal payments on financial obligations or a bankruptcy filing. Therefore, financial impairment is a more measurable indication of financial duress for insurance companies. A.M. Best designates a company as financially impaired upon the first official regulatory action taken by a state insurance department. Such actions include involuntary liquidations because of insolvency, as well as other regulatory processes such as supervision, rehabilitation, receivership, conservatorship, a cease-and-desist order, suspension, license revocation, administrative order or any other action that restricts an insurance company s freedom to conduct its insurance business as normal. Companies that enter voluntary liquidation and are not under financial duress at that time are not counted as financially impaired. It is important to note that financial impairment of insurance companies often occurs even if the companies have not been declared insolvent. For instance, an impaired company s capital and surplus could have been deemed inadequate to meet risk-based capital requirements, or there might have been regulatory concern regarding its general financial condition. Thus, at any given rating level, more insurers would be impaired, according to the A.M. Best definition, than actually would default on policyholder obligations or, perhaps, on other obligations, such as senior or subordinated debt. Based on the definition of financial impairment, A.M. Best has conducted and continues to conduct extensive studies to determine the impairment rates of insurance operating companies. These impairment rates can serve as proxies for defaults on financial obligations made by those companies. Through the impairment studies, which include over 5,000 insurance companies and nearly 700 impairments, A.M. Best has created Best s Idealized Default Rates of Insurers (see Exhibit 12), which shows assumed default rates of insurers on the credit market scale familiar to capital market participants. The insurer default rates on this table are applied to the insurance companies in life settlement securitizations. For more information on the A.M. Best insurance impairment studies, please go to the A.M. Best Web site, www.ambest.com. 3. Recoveries of Death Benefits After Insurer Impairments Insurance company impairments may result in the diminution of death benefits. In general, guaranty funds cover nearly all death benefits in the event of an insurance company s impairment, up to a limit of about $300,000 in most states and $500,000 in a few others. However, this limit is probably smaller than the face values of the policies in most life settlement transactions, which generally range from $1 million to $2 million. The unpaid death benefits are paid out of the estate of the insolvent Exhibit 11 Summary of General Policy Eligibility Criteria Insurance company must have a bbb- issuer credit rating or higher. exceed 3.33% of the total face value of the pool. Confirmation from the insurance company that the policy is in force and not within the grace period. No restrictions prevent the payment of the current net death benefits at the insured s death, except for nonpayment of the current premiums. Verification from the insurance company that the policy is not encumbered by any other party. Confirmation that policy language does not prevent lump-sum payments of full insurance benefits. Face value of the policy or policies related to one insured does not Face value of the policy or policies in any one disease category does not exceed the percentages shown in Exhibit 4. Face value of the policy or policies issued by a single insurance company does not exceed 15% of the total face value of the pool. Life expectancies and/or mortality ratings provided by two independent medical underwriters. Purchases of fractionalized shares of policies generally are not permitted. Group policies are not allowed unless they are convertible. 20
insurance company if the company goes into liquidation. While the anecdotal evidence is that policyholders rarely lose money in life insurance company insolvencies, a rigorous life settlement model must include the possibility of losing money should such events occur since these transactions are long term in nature. In addition, no one can be certain that if more life settlement transactions and securitizations are consummated, regulators won t impose restrictions on payments to the bankruptcy-remote vehicles that own life settlements in the event of insurance company impairments. A.M. Best generally will assume the recovery rate after insurance company impairments to be 80% over the amount recovered from the guaranty funds. In stress scenarios, however, A.M. Best will assume an 80% recovery on the entire balance of the death benefits without giving consideration to the guaranty fund recovery. 4. Death Benefit Collection The prompt collection of death benefits will depend on the competence of the servicer, particularly in its function as a tracking agent and its efficiency in helping the issuer in obtaining death certificates and performing other duties pursuant to the prompt collection of death benefits. Unless the issuer presents credible data to show the historical lag between the time of death and the time of the collection of death benefits for the life settlement pool being securitized, A.M. Best will assume that there is a three-month lag between the death of an insured and the collection of the death benefits from an insurer. 5. Cash-Flow Model/Use Of Debt Default Table A.M. Best has developed its own, proprietary Monte Carlo simulation model for evaluating life settlement transactions, but the company expects to receive a copy of a model created by the issuer (or at least outputs from the model) that takes into consideration prices and face values of the life settlements; the statistical distribution of deaths; insurance company impairments; recoveries associated with such impairments; premiums; liquidation value (if applicable at the end of the transaction); interest and principal payments on the securities collateralized by the life settlements; and other significant modeling parameters. A. Determining the Final Mortality Matrix To model the transaction, A.M. Best first determines the Final Mortality Matrix, which is the mortality matrix used for the Monte Carlo simulation. This matrix is derived from the information provided by medical underwriters, with modifications as determined by A.M. Best. The modifications are to compensate for the possibility that medical underwriters are systematically misestimating life expectancies. The following are the procedures for determining the Final Mortality Matrix: Exhibit 12 Best s Idealized Default Rates of Insurers (On The Credit Market Scale) Years aaa aa+ aa aa- a+ a a- bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b b- 1 0.03% 0.06% 0.11% 0.16% 0.21% 0.23% 0.27% 0.67% 1.20% 2.30% 5.80% 7.61% 9.41% 10.17% 11.32% 11.98% 2 0.11% 0.32% 0.44% 0.56% 0.67% 0.74% 0.89% 1.96% 3.26% 5.28% 10.60% 14.35% 18.22% 19.40% 21.50% 22.75% 3 0.20% 0.58% 0.76% 0.95% 1.13% 1.25% 1.51% 3.18% 5.23% 8.10% 15.08% 20.60% 26.23% 27.74% 30.61% 32.40% 4 0.31% 0.84% 1.08% 1.33% 1.58% 1.76% 2.13% 4.35% 7.11% 10.78% 19.26% 26.37% 33.48% 35.27% 38.75% 41.01% 5 0.45% 1.10% 1.41% 1.71% 2.02% 2.25% 2.75% 5.46% 8.91% 13.31% 23.14% 31.69% 40.05% 42.04% 45.99% 48.67% 6 0.60% 1.37% 1.73% 2.09% 2.46% 2.74% 3.37% 6.51% 10.63% 15.71% 26.75% 36.58% 45.96% 48.11% 52.40% 55.45% 7 0.77% 1.64% 2.06% 2.47% 2.88% 3.21% 3.98% 7.51% 12.26% 17.96% 30.09% 41.06% 51.27% 53.53% 58.04% 61.43% 8 0.96% 1.92% 2.38% 2.84% 3.31% 3.68% 4.58% 8.45% 13.81% 20.09% 33.18% 45.14% 56.02% 58.35% 62.99% 66.67% 9 1.15% 2.20% 2.70% 3.21% 3.72% 4.13% 5.18% 9.34% 15.28% 22.08% 36.04% 48.86% 60.25% 62.62% 67.31% 71.24% 10 1.36% 2.48% 3.03% 3.58% 4.13% 4.58% 5.76% 10.18% 16.67% 23.95% 38.66% 52.23% 64.01% 66.40% 71.06% 75.21% 11 1.58% 2.76% 3.35% 3.94% 4.53% 5.01% 6.33% 10.96% 17.98% 25.70% 41.07% 55.27% 67.32% 69.71% 74.29% 78.63% 12 1.81% 3.05% 3.68% 4.30% 4.92% 5.43% 6.88% 11.69% 19.21% 27.34% 43.28% 58.01% 70.22% 72.60% 77.06% 81.56% 13 2.05% 3.35% 4.00% 4.65% 5.31% 5.84% 7.42% 12.36% 20.36% 28.86% 45.30% 60.46% 72.75% 75.12% 79.42% 84.05% 14 2.29% 3.64% 4.32% 5.01% 5.69% 6.25% 7.93% 12.99% 21.44% 30.28% 47.14% 62.64% 74.94% 77.30% 81.41% 86.16% 15 2.53% 3.94% 4.65% 5.36% 6.06% 6.64% 8.43% 13.57% 22.43% 31.59% 48.82% 64.59% 76.81% 79.17% 83.09% 87.94% aaa aa+ aa aa- a+ a a- bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ b b- Source: Derived from Best s Idealized Default Matrix published December 5, 2007 21
1. Given a portfolio of life settlements, get the Standard Mortality Matrix for the pool given the age, gender and smoking status for each life. The Standard Mortality Matrix currently is assumed to be taken from the 2008 VBT. 2. Given the Standard Mortality Matrix and the death benefit for each life in the life settlement pool, derive the weighted average time to maturity for the pool. This will be considered the base life expectancy for a cohort of standard risks, LE standard 3. Given the life expectancy for each life in the Standard Mortality Matrix, derive the implied mortality multiplier for each life, MMi (where i ranges from 1 to the total number of lives in the portfolio). 4. Apply the mortality vector for each life in the Standard Mortality Matrix by its corresponding mortality multiplier, MMi derived in Step 3. The new mortality matrix will be called the Impaired Mortality Matrix. 5. Given the Impaired Mortality Matrix and the face value for each life in the pool, derive the weighted average time to maturity for the pool. This will be considered the base life expectancy for a cohort of impaired lives, LE impaired. 6. If LE impaired >= 85% LE standard, stop and use the Impaired Mortality Matrix derived in Step 4 as the Final Mortality Matrix. We will call the LE associated with this matrix, LE final. 7. If LE impaired <85% LE standard, multiply the mortality profile for each life in the Impaired Mortality Matrix by a constant factor (less than 1), such that LE impaired = 85% LE standard. We will call the portfolio the Final Mortality Matrix and the life expectancy associated with this matrix, LE final. The procedures outlined above are performed with data provided by each medical underwriter. If all the lives have not been underwritten by the same two medical underwriters, A.M. Best will use the longest life expectancy for its calculations. In general, the Final Mortality Matrix chosen for the analysis will be the matrix that yields the highest portfolio life expectancy. The Final Mortality Matrix will be used in running the base Monte Carlo simulation for determining the base default probability of the securities. An example of how the Final Mortality Matrix is derived is shown in the appendix for a small portfolio of 20 life settlements. Please note that the calculations above are performed at the beginning of the transaction after giving consideration to the time that has elapsed between the time of the last full medical underwriting and the first month of the securitization B. Modeling Basics At its most basic level, A.M. Best s model generates cash flows for every policy after considering the appropriate mortality table, the premiums and the death benefit. As an example, assume that a 75-year-old male insured has a 1.6% probability of dying by age 76, a 2.0% probability of dying by age 77 (if he survives age 76) and a 2.7% probability of dying by age 78 (if he survives age 77). In the simulation process, for the first year when the probability of the insured dying is 1.6%, A.M. Best draws a random number between 0% and 100%. If that random number is less than or equal to 1.6%, the insured is assumed dead, premium payments on the life are stopped (after the first year), and the death benefit is collected. If that random number is greater than 1.6%, the insured is assumed to be alive, the insured survives to the second year, and premium payments continue. In the second year, where the probability of the insured dying is 2.0%, a random number is drawn once again and either the person lives (i.e., the random number is above 2.0%) or dies (i.e., the random number is less than or equal to 2%). In the third year, where the probability of the insured dying is 2.7%, a random number is drawn once again and either the person lives (i.e., the random number is above 2.7%) or dies (i.e., the random number is less than or equal to 2.7%). Exhibit 13 shows the possible pattern of death or survival over a three-year period for this example. The analysis is the same for a portfolio of several hundred policies that may mature in 20 or 30 years. For each trial in the simulation, the model aggregates the cash flows (death benefits, premium payments, etc.) for a portfolio of life settlements and makes payments as prescribed by the transaction s 22
waterfall. When cash-flow shortfalls occur and note payments are not made in full, the model records a default. The ultimate output of A.M. Best s cash-flow model is the default rate the total number of defaults for all trials divided by the number of trials. This default rate then is tied to Best s Idealized Default Matrix (see Exhibit 14), which shows the default rates associated with debt ratings. The credit quality of the securities is based on the long-term credit rating scale, not the Financial Strength Rating scale. Please note that the simplified example above ignores insurance-company defaults, and other modeling parameters that are considered in the actual simulation model. 6. Stresses Some of the items A.M. Best stresses include the following: 1. Mortality Ratings stresses in approximately the first five years of the transaction; 2. Mortality Ratings a reduction in the mortality rating associated with each insured as the transaction ages during the surveillance simulations; 3. Reduction of base mortalities based on the size of death benefits high death benefits imply ability to get better health care; 4. Mortality Improvements; 5. Premium Payments increase in premiums due to the potential for increases in the cost of insurance (which is assumed to occur upon carrier default) and the possibility of incorrect optimization of insurance premiums; 6. Cure Possibilities reduction in mortality based on cure assumptions for the most common diseases found in life settlement pools (such as coronary artery disease); 7. Death Benefit Collection Lag the time between death of the insureds and the collection of the death benefits; 8. Rate Increase increase of the interest rates for unhedged floating-rate funding; 9. Investment Returns a decrease in the assumed investment returns for the reserve account; 10. Insurance Company Defaults increase in insurance company impairments and decrease in recoveries; 11. Rating of Liquidity Providers the reduction in the ratings of liquidity providers; 12. Rating of Reinsurers the reduction in the ratings of any reinsurers that provide longevity cover, if any; and Exhibit 13 Paths of Death or Survival in the Monte Carlo Simulation* Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Random Draw (0% to 100%) (Draw <= 1.6%) Died in Year 1 Don t Pay Premium From Year 2 On & Collect Death Benefits (Draw > 1.6%) Survived Year 1 Pay Premium & Draw Again in Year 2 *Assumes death occurs on last day of year of the random draw. (Draw <= 2.0%) Died in Year 2 Don t Pay Premium From Year 3 On & Collect Death Benefits (Draw > 2.0%) Survived Year 2 Pay Premium & Draw Again in Year 3 (Draw > 2.7%) Survived Year 3 Pay Premium & Draw Again in Year 4 (Draw <= 2.7%) Died in Year 3 Don t Pay Premium From Year 4 On & Collect Death Benefits 23
13. Liquidation Value the liquidation value of the remaining life settlement collateral (if any) at the end of the transaction. for each life settlement in the portfolio and are satisfied that the sellers have insurable interest in the lives of the insureds. 7. Qualitative Issues In rating securities collateralized by life settlements, A.M. Best also considers some of the issues that may not be directly quantifiable but could have a significant impact on the rating of the transaction. Some of the issues A.M. Best considers in the analyses include, but are not limited to, the following: 1. The infrastructure set up by the collateral manager to manage the transaction; 2. The track record of the medical underwriters as shown by actual to expected ratios certified by reputable actuarial firms; 3. Whether the issuer (or its representative) has hired actuaries to help it understand mortality profiles on impaired lives of the elderly; 4. How long the designated medical underwriters in the transaction have been providing life expectancies to independent third parties; 5. Whether the issuer has performed a consistency check on the policies to ensure that the underwriting of the original insurance policy was done with accurate information; 6. The extent to which attorneys have reviewed the sales documentation packages 7. The experience of the issuer or arranger with life settlement transactions A.M. Best feels that total reliance on consultants (especially if their involvement is only at the beginning of the transaction) leaves the issuer vulnerable when decisions have to be made regarding policy management as the transaction ages; 8. The existence of designated backups for significant service providers, such as collateral managers and portfolio servicers; 9. The extent to which the sellers of the policies know all the fees paid to all intermediaries in the transaction; 10. The existence of a well-defined liquidation plan (for transactions with legal maturities of less than 20 years) that must be carried out by the collateral manager; 11. The ability and willingness of the issuer to provide the surveillance data on a timely basis for monitoring the transaction, including auditing information; 12. The capacity of the provider to originate policies at the pace assumed by the issuer; and 13. The extent to which a purchased portfolio meets the requirements and recommendations outlined for newly originated policies in this methodology. Surveillance Requirements for Transactions Cash flows based on mortality are naturally volatile, which is the reason for substantial reserve accounts and/or liquidity facilities. Therefore, one, two or three months worth of mortality-based cash flows for small pools of life settlements may not provide enough mortality experience to determine whether the projected cash flows are within reasonable tolerance levels. In addition, the fact that there are significant lags between the death of insureds and the collection of death benefits means that cash flows in the first few months of the transaction will be minimal. A.M. Best believes that between six to nine months have to elapse in order to see if the average monthly cash flow pattern and cumulative cash flows are in accordance with expectations for given debt rating levels. As part of the surveillance of the transaction, A.M. Best will revisit assumptions made in its analysis to see whether there are significant changes in mortality (measured by lives and death benefits), premiums, investment returns, death benefit collection lags, insurable interest challenges by insurers, credit quality of insurers or other major factors that may impact the credit quality of the securities. Thus, the surveillance activities of a life settlement securitization are dynamic and A.M. Best may make appropriate adjustments to such 24
assumptions and stress scenarios to reflect the then-current experience of the securitized portfolio or additional knowledge gained by A.M. Best over time. If the projected maturities in a life settlement portfolio are likely to result in a near-term shortfall of the cash flow necessary to pay the premiums or any principal or interest due on the securities, A.M. Best expects to see a plan from the issuer for averting a liquidity crisis. A.M. Best also will periodically request information from the backup servicers to make sure it has up-to-date records of the insureds being tracked. There are no surveillance requirements for securities with Preliminary Assessments, because such evaluations are generally performed based on the projected portfolios and information provided to A.M. Best at the time of the evaluation. The Preliminary Assessment is not updated even when market conditions, such as the available life expectances and prices, change. To monitor securities with Debt Ratings, A.M. Best requires the following information on a monthly basis: The date of death of any insured as shown on the death certificate; The date the death was reported to the issuer or discovered by the issuer; The date the death benefit was collected and the amount collected; Any changes in premium payments, death benefits, crediting rates, expense charges, borrowings against policies or other features that could affect the net cash flow of the life settlement; Any planned changes in the calculation methodologies by insurers that can affect premium payments, death benefits, crediting rates, expense charges or other features that could affect the net cash flow of the life settlement; Any changes to the carrier concentration; Any lapse notification to the insurer; Dividends received on each policy, if any; Reserve balance; The policies that had a change in premiums or net death benefits; The liquidation price of the life settlement (if sold); and Any other factors that may affect the value of a life settlement. Exhibit 14 Best s Idealized Default Matrix Years aaa aa+ aa aa- a+ a a- bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- 1 0.03% 0.03% 0.04% 0.05% 0.06% 0.11% 0.16% 0.21% 0.23% 0.27% 0.67% 1.20% 2.30% 2 0.08% 0.11% 0.13% 0.23% 0.32% 0.44% 0.56% 0.67% 0.74% 0.89% 1.96% 3.26% 5.28% 3 0.14% 0.20% 0.26% 0.42% 0.58% 0.76% 0.95% 1.13% 1.25% 1.51% 3.18% 5.23% 8.10% 4 0.22% 0.31% 0.41% 0.62% 0.84% 1.08% 1.33% 1.58% 1.76% 2.13% 4.35% 7.11% 10.78% 5 0.31% 0.45% 0.58% 0.84% 1.10% 1.41% 1.71% 2.02% 2.25% 2.75% 5.46% 8.91% 13.31% 6 0.42% 0.60% 0.79% 1.08% 1.37% 1.73% 2.09% 2.46% 2.74% 3.37% 6.51% 10.63% 15.71% 7 0.53% 0.77% 1.01% 1.33% 1.64% 2.06% 2.47% 2.88% 3.21% 3.98% 7.51% 12.26% 17.96% 8 0.66% 0.96% 1.25% 1.58% 1.92% 2.38% 2.84% 3.31% 3.68% 4.58% 8.45% 13.81% 20.09% 9 0.79% 1.15% 1.51% 1.85% 2.20% 2.70% 3.21% 3.72% 4.13% 5.18% 9.34% 15.28% 22.08% 10 0.94% 1.36% 1.79% 2.13% 2.48% 3.03% 3.58% 4.13% 4.58% 5.76% 10.18% 16.67% 23.95% 11 1.09% 1.58% 2.08% 2.42% 2.76% 3.35% 3.94% 4.53% 5.01% 6.33% 10.96% 17.98% 25.70% 12 1.24% 1.81% 2.38% 2.72% 3.05% 3.68% 4.30% 4.92% 5.43% 6.88% 11.69% 19.21% 27.34% 13 1.40% 2.05% 2.69% 3.02% 3.35% 4.00% 4.65% 5.31% 5.84% 7.42% 12.36% 20.36% 28.86% 14 1.57% 2.29% 3.01% 3.33% 3.64% 4.32% 5.01% 5.69% 6.25% 7.93% 12.99% 21.44% 30.28% 15 1.73% 2.53% 3.34% 3.64% 3.94% 4.65% 5.36% 6.06% 6.64% 8.43% 13.57% 22.43% 31.59% aaa aa+ aa aa- a+ a a- bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb- Source: Best s Idealized Default Matrix published December 5, 2007 25
Appendix: Determining the Final Mortality Matrix Step 1 Portfolio of Life Settlements Policy # Death Benefits Gender Age LE 1 $600,000 M 89 66 2 $200,000 M 75 128 3 $2,000,000 F 78 142 4 $1,000,000 F 76 154 5 $266,666 F 76 120 6 $7,000,000 M 79 126 7 $5,000,000 F 84 72 8 $2,889,110 M 77 127 9 $3,000,000 M 81 100 10 $500,000 M 78 120 11 $600,000 M 79 120 12 $500,000 M 82 100 13 $1,000,000 F 78 100 14 $500,000 M 80 100 15 $1,000,000 M 83 80 16 $3,000,000 M 84 84 17 $800,000 M 73 105 18 $2,000,000 F 79 110 19 $2,000,000 F 79 100 20 $2,889,110 M 77 123 Total Death Benefits $36,744,886 26
Step 1 (continued) Standard Mortality Matrix (2008 VBT, Age Last Birthday) YEAR Policy # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 3.00% 8.07% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 2 0.71% 1.08% 1.48% 1.91% 2.37% 2.88% 3.44% 4.06% 4.74% 5.66% 6.84% 8.14% 9.59% 11.22% 12.98% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 3 0.56% 0.93% 1.32% 1.76% 2.23% 2.76% 3.56% 4.64% 5.78% 7.01% 8.32% 9.70% 10.88% 11.88% 12.94% 14.07% 15.28% 16.55% 17.90% 19.86% 4 0.47% 0.76% 1.08% 1.43% 1.80% 2.22% 2.68% 3.18% 3.93% 4.91% 5.98% 7.13% 8.39% 9.72% 10.88% 11.88% 12.94% 14.07% 15.28% 16.55% 5 0.47% 0.76% 1.08% 1.43% 1.80% 2.22% 2.68% 3.18% 3.93% 4.91% 5.98% 7.13% 8.39% 9.72% 10.88% 11.88% 12.94% 14.07% 15.28% 16.55% 6 1.11% 1.66% 2.27% 2.93% 3.65% 4.71% 6.10% 7.60% 9.22% 11.01% 12.91% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 7 0.88% 2.16% 4.50% 6.14% 7.81% 9.54% 10.88% 11.88% 12.94% 14.07% 15.28% 16.55% 17.90% 19.86% 22.50% 25.19% 27.90% 30.57% 33.18% 35.62% 8 0.89% 1.34% 1.83% 2.36% 2.95% 3.58% 4.28% 5.26% 6.54% 7.92% 9.44% 11.14% 12.95% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 9 1.37% 2.06% 2.80% 3.95% 5.51% 7.15% 8.91% 10.82% 12.85% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 10 0.99% 1.50% 2.04% 2.63% 3.28% 3.99% 5.01% 6.34% 7.77% 9.34% 11.08% 12.93% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 11 1.11% 1.66% 2.27% 2.93% 3.65% 4.71% 6.10% 7.60% 9.22% 11.01% 12.91% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 12 1.53% 2.28% 3.49% 5.14% 6.87% 8.72% 10.71% 12.81% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 13 0.56% 0.93% 1.32% 1.76% 2.23% 2.76% 3.56% 4.64% 5.78% 7.01% 8.32% 9.70% 10.88% 11.88% 12.94% 14.07% 15.28% 16.55% 17.90% 19.86% 14 1.23% 1.85% 2.52% 3.25% 4.36% 5.83% 7.39% 9.08% 10.92% 12.88% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 15 1.69% 2.71% 4.71% 6.55% 8.49% 10.57% 12.77% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 16 1.87% 3.41% 6.18% 8.23% 10.41% 12.71% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 17 0.56% 0.86% 1.18% 1.53% 1.90% 2.31% 2.75% 3.25% 3.79% 4.40% 5.06% 5.94% 7.06% 8.30% 9.70% 11.28% 12.99% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 18 0.61% 1.02% 1.46% 1.95% 2.48% 3.33% 4.46% 5.65% 6.92% 8.27% 9.68% 10.88% 11.88% 12.94% 14.07% 15.28% 16.55% 17.90% 19.86% 22.50% 19 0.61% 1.02% 1.46% 1.95% 2.48% 3.33% 4.46% 5.65% 6.92% 8.27% 9.68% 10.88% 11.88% 12.94% 14.07% 15.28% 16.55% 17.90% 19.86% 22.50% 20 0.89% 1.34% 1.83% 2.36% 2.95% 3.58% 4.28% 5.26% 6.54% 7.92% 9.44% 11.14% 12.95% 14.72% 16.46% 18.28% 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% YEAR Policy # 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 1 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 87.08% 92.13% 97.36% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 3 22.50% 25.19% 27.90% 30.57% 33.18% 35.62% 37.92% 39.83% 41.06% 42.24% 43.34% 44.37% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.25% 86.77% 4 17.90% 19.86% 22.50% 25.19% 27.90% 30.57% 33.18% 35.62% 37.92% 39.83% 41.06% 42.24% 43.34% 44.37% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 5 17.90% 19.86% 22.50% 25.19% 27.90% 30.57% 33.18% 35.62% 37.92% 39.83% 41.06% 42.24% 43.34% 44.37% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 6 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 87.08% 92.13% 7 37.92% 39.83% 41.06% 42.24% 43.34% 44.37% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.25% 86.77% 91.16% 96.68% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 8 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 9 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 87.08% 92.13% 97.36% 100.00% 10 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 87.08% 11 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 87.08% 92.13% 12 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 87.08% 92.13% 97.36% 100.00% 100.00% 13 22.50% 25.19% 27.90% 30.57% 33.18% 35.62% 37.92% 39.83% 41.06% 42.24% 43.34% 44.37% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.25% 86.77% 14 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 87.08% 92.13% 97.36% 15 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 87.08% 92.13% 97.36% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 16 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 87.08% 92.13% 97.36% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 17 20.13% 21.86% 23.54% 25.30% 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 18 25.19% 27.90% 30.57% 33.18% 35.62% 37.92% 39.83% 41.06% 42.24% 43.34% 44.37% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.25% 86.77% 91.16% 19 25.19% 27.90% 30.57% 33.18% 35.62% 37.92% 39.83% 41.06% 42.24% 43.34% 44.37% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.25% 86.77% 91.16% 20 27.17% 29.34% 31.65% 33.90% 36.00% 37.88% 39.46% 40.81% 41.99% 43.06% 43.91% 44.42% 44.80% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 82.31% 27
Step 2 Cash Flow Based on Standard Mortality Matrix (2008 VBT) Used for Calculating LE standard LE standard = 11.41 years YEAR Policy # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 17,976 46,952 88,046 81,712 73,538 63,785 53,676 44,100 35,383 27,823 21,206 15,525 10,900 7,340 4,750 2,974 1,811 1,078 626 355 2 1,412 2,141 2,900 3,687 4,498 5,335 6,197 7,056 7,897 8,989 10,255 11,372 12,305 13,010 13,360 13,187 12,571 11,667 10,500 9,107 3 11,200 18,416 26,088 34,181 42,672 51,504 64,720 81,257 96,574 110,216 121,736 130,119 131,803 128,225 123,106 116,550 108,709 99,796 90,075 82,012 4 4,670 7,604 10,697 13,932 17,355 20,977 24,756 28,638 34,227 41,137 47,585 53,385 58,327 61,894 62,546 60,847 58,418 55,307 51,586 47,357 5 1,245 2,028 2,853 3,715 4,628 5,594 6,602 7,637 9,127 10,970 12,689 14,236 15,554 16,505 16,679 16,226 15,578 14,749 13,756 12,628 6 77,420 115,192 154,596 194,860 235,392 292,771 361,835 422,996 474,466 514,079 536,632 532,829 507,955 471,411 424,253 367,989 309,667 254,421 204,133 160,515 7 44,150 107,245 218,333 284,067 339,569 382,033 394,393 383,684 368,369 348,751 325,288 298,618 269,530 245,402 222,908 193,405 160,189 126,576 95,375 68,439 8 25,626 38,457 51,754 65,560 79,796 94,158 108,394 127,598 150,182 170,089 186,715 199,403 206,115 203,910 194,391 180,406 162,359 140,827 118,508 97,366 9 41,220 60,862 81,055 111,351 148,938 182,769 211,553 234,020 247,778 247,363 235,815 218,850 196,957 170,837 143,761 118,114 94,768 74,518 56,797 41,582 10 4,960 7,401 9,943 12,583 15,260 17,927 21,618 26,001 29,872 33,111 35,593 36,956 36,620 34,910 32,399 29,158 25,291 21,282 17,486 14,029 11 6,636 9,874 13,251 16,702 20,176 25,095 31,014 36,257 40,669 44,064 45,997 45,671 43,539 40,407 36,365 31,542 26,543 21,808 17,497 13,758 12 7,635 11,226 16,797 23,844 30,253 35,757 40,093 42,839 42,917 40,914 37,970 34,172 29,640 24,942 20,493 16,442 12,929 9,854 7,214 5,065 13 5,600 9,208 13,044 17,090 21,336 25,752 32,360 40,628 48,287 55,108 60,868 65,060 65,902 64,112 61,553 58,275 54,355 49,898 45,037 41,006 14 6,165 9,151 12,229 15,360 19,911 25,470 30,430 34,621 37,866 39,786 39,599 37,750 35,034 31,530 27,348 23,014 18,908 15,171 11,929 9,092 15 16,940 26,661 45,066 59,647 72,300 82,381 88,973 89,502 85,324 79,186 71,264 61,813 52,017 42,737 34,290 26,963 20,551 15,045 10,563 7,113 16 56,190 100,325 175,614 219,539 254,969 278,842 281,817 268,661 249,333 224,391 194,632 163,785 134,565 107,968 84,897 64,708 47,373 33,260 22,396 14,495 17 4,456 6,842 9,322 11,909 14,597 17,391 20,248 23,209 26,255 29,261 32,182 35,867 40,105 43,848 46,988 49,339 50,440 49,715 47,395 43,985 18 12,180 20,216 28,766 37,769 47,166 61,642 79,899 96,766 111,767 124,367 133,587 135,564 131,883 126,619 119,875 111,810 102,643 92,645 84,351 76,619 19 12,180 20,216 28,766 37,769 47,166 61,642 79,899 96,766 111,767 124,367 133,587 135,564 131,883 126,619 119,875 111,810 102,643 92,645 84,351 76,619 20 25,626 38,457 51,754 65,560 79,796 94,158 108,394 127,598 150,182 170,089 186,715 199,403 206,115 203,910 194,391 180,406 162,359 140,827 118,508 97,366 Death Benefits t $383,488 $658,471 $1,040,873 $1,310,837 $1,569,317 $1,824,984 $2,046,871 $2,219,836 $2,358,243 $2,444,058 $2,469,917 $2,425,942 $2,316,749 $2,166,136 $1,984,228 $1,773,165 $1,548,106 $1,321,090 $1,108,084 $918,508 YEAR Policy # 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 1 199 110 61 33 18 10 6 6 1 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - 2 7,664 6,297 5,052 3,973 3,028 2,217 1,556 1,048 678 425 259 154 89 51 28 16 9 5 3 1 3 74,494 64,634 53,534 42,301 31,874 22,872 15,675 10,218 6,340 3,843 2,278 1,321 745 410 225 124 68 38 38 7 4 42,744 38,917 35,350 30,671 25,404 20,073 15,125 10,854 7,438 4,849 3,008 1,824 1,081 627 354 195 107 59 32 18 5 11,398 10,378 9,427 8,179 6,774 5,353 4,033 2,894 1,984 1,293 802 486 288 167 94 52 29 16 9 5 6 122,344 89,568 62,885 42,343 27,406 17,155 10,451 6,217 3,609 2,048 1,148 636 350 193 106 58 32 32 6 1 7 46,903 30,576 18,971 11,500 6,817 3,954 2,230 1,227 675 371 204 112 113 21 3 0 0 - - - 8 78,121 61,428 46,820 34,277 24,066 16,204 10,488 6,565 3,999 2,379 1,381 784 439 244 134 74 41 22 12 12 9 29,194 19,658 12,723 7,964 4,852 2,886 1,676 951 533 295 163 89 49 27 15 15 3 0 0 0 10 11,032 8,408 6,156 4,322 2,910 1,883 1,179 718 427 248 141 79 44 24 13 7 4 2 2 0 11 10,487 7,677 5,390 3,629 2,349 1,470 896 533 309 176 98 55 30 17 9 5 3 3 1 0 12 3,411 2,207 1,382 842 501 291 165 92 51 28 16 9 5 3 3 0 0 0 0-13 37,247 32,317 26,767 21,150 15,937 11,436 7,837 5,109 3,170 1,922 1,139 661 373 205 113 62 34 19 19 4 14 6,657 4,673 3,147 2,037 1,275 777 462 268 152 85 47 26 14 8 4 2 2 0 0 0 15 4,603 2,882 1,755 1,044 606 344 193 107 59 32 18 10 5 5 1 0 0 0 - - 16 9,074 5,527 3,288 1,909 1,083 607 337 185 102 56 31 17 17 3 0 0 0 - - - 17 39,585 34,335 28,893 23,739 19,047 14,977 11,415 8,357 5,867 3,951 2,557 1,601 975 580 337 191 107 59 33 18 18 66,478 55,061 43,508 32,783 23,525 16,122 10,510 6,521 3,953 2,343 1,359 767 422 232 128 70 39 39 7 1 19 66,478 55,061 43,508 32,783 23,525 16,122 10,510 6,521 3,953 2,343 1,359 767 422 232 128 70 39 39 7 1 20 78,121 61,428 46,820 34,277 24,066 16,204 10,488 6,565 3,999 2,379 1,381 784 439 244 134 74 41 22 12 12 Death Benefits t $746,233 $591,145 $455,437 $339,758 $245,060 $170,958 $115,231 $74,956 $47,301 $29,067 $17,389 $10,180 $5,901 $3,291 $1,829 $1,016 $556 $355 $181 $81 40 *LE = [ S Death Benefits t x (t 0.5) ] / 36,744,886 t=1 28
Step 3 Determining Mortality Multiplier (MMi) Policy # Death Benefits Gender Age LE Mortality Multiplier (MMi) 1 $600,000 M 89 66 102% 2 $200,000 M 75 128 202% 3 $2,000,000 F 78 142 150% 4 $1,000,000 F 76 154 160% 5 $266,666 F 76 120 300% 6 $7,000,000 M 79 126 122% 7 $5,000,000 F 84 72 250% 8 $2,889,110 M 77 127 157% 9 $3,000,000 M 81 100 152% 10 $500,000 M 78 120 158% 11 $600,000 M 79 120 137% 12 $500,000 M 82 100 128% 13 $1,000,000 F 78 100 349% 14 $500,000 M 80 100 178% 15 $1,000,000 M 83 80 170% 16 $3,000,000 M 84 84 130% 17 $800,000 M 73 105 410% 18 $2,000,000 F 79 110 240% 19 $2,000,000 F 79 100 300% 20 $2,889,110 M 77 123 171% 29
Step 4 Impaired Mortality Matrix YEAR Policy # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 3.05% 8.22% 16.75% 18.61% 20.49% 22.25% 23.95% 25.73% 27.63% 29.83% 32.17% 34.44% 36.57% 38.47% 40.07% 41.42% 42.62% 43.70% 44.56% 45.07% 2 1.42% 2.17% 2.96% 3.81% 4.73% 5.73% 6.83% 8.03% 9.33% 11.10% 13.34% 15.77% 18.43% 21.37% 24.48% 27.50% 30.45% 33.49% 36.49% 39.24% 3 0.84% 1.39% 1.98% 2.63% 3.33% 4.11% 5.30% 6.88% 8.55% 10.32% 12.22% 14.19% 15.87% 17.28% 18.77% 20.35% 22.02% 23.77% 25.61% 28.25% 4 0.75% 1.22% 1.73% 2.27% 2.87% 3.53% 4.25% 5.04% 6.21% 7.75% 9.39% 11.17% 13.09% 15.09% 16.83% 18.32% 19.89% 21.55% 23.30% 25.14% 5 1.39% 2.27% 3.21% 4.22% 5.31% 6.51% 7.82% 9.25% 11.33% 14.03% 16.88% 19.91% 23.12% 26.42% 29.22% 31.57% 34.02% 36.56% 39.18% 41.89% 6 1.35% 2.03% 2.76% 3.56% 4.43% 5.71% 7.39% 9.19% 11.13% 13.26% 15.52% 17.66% 19.69% 21.83% 23.98% 25.99% 27.93% 29.94% 32.08% 34.54% 7 2.19% 5.32% 10.88% 14.64% 18.40% 22.16% 25.02% 27.10% 29.28% 31.56% 33.93% 36.39% 38.93% 42.50% 47.13% 51.60% 55.85% 59.83% 63.50% 66.75% 8 1.39% 2.10% 2.86% 3.69% 4.59% 5.57% 6.63% 8.13% 10.07% 12.15% 14.42% 16.92% 19.57% 22.12% 24.59% 27.16% 29.73% 32.11% 34.39% 36.74% 9 2.08% 3.11% 4.22% 5.95% 8.25% 10.66% 13.23% 15.98% 18.87% 21.50% 23.91% 26.42% 28.94% 31.27% 33.50% 35.81% 38.24% 41.01% 43.92% 46.70% 10 1.56% 2.35% 3.20% 4.13% 5.13% 6.22% 7.79% 9.83% 12.00% 14.36% 16.93% 19.65% 22.24% 24.73% 27.31% 29.89% 32.28% 34.57% 36.93% 39.41% 11 1.51% 2.27% 3.10% 3.99% 4.96% 6.39% 8.26% 10.26% 12.41% 14.77% 17.25% 19.60% 21.83% 24.16% 26.50% 28.68% 30.77% 32.94% 35.23% 37.86% 12 1.95% 2.91% 4.45% 6.52% 8.71% 11.02% 13.49% 16.09% 18.44% 20.56% 22.77% 25.00% 27.08% 29.08% 31.16% 33.36% 35.89% 38.55% 41.13% 43.52% 13 1.94% 3.19% 4.55% 6.00% 7.58% 9.30% 11.90% 15.28% 18.77% 22.39% 26.15% 29.96% 33.10% 35.68% 38.35% 41.10% 43.93% 46.82% 49.77% 53.81% 14 2.18% 3.27% 4.45% 5.71% 7.62% 10.13% 12.77% 15.59% 18.61% 21.77% 24.68% 27.39% 30.18% 32.97% 35.54% 37.99% 40.50% 43.13% 46.11% 49.20% 15 2.86% 4.57% 7.88% 10.87% 14.00% 17.30% 20.72% 23.71% 26.33% 29.05% 31.76% 34.25% 36.64% 39.09% 41.67% 44.59% 47.63% 50.52% 53.17% 55.48% 16 2.43% 4.41% 7.95% 10.56% 13.32% 16.20% 18.70% 20.84% 23.08% 25.34% 27.43% 29.46% 31.56% 33.78% 36.33% 39.02% 41.62% 44.02% 46.14% 47.92% 17 2.26% 3.48% 4.76% 6.12% 7.57% 9.14% 10.81% 12.65% 14.66% 16.83% 19.16% 22.19% 25.92% 29.90% 34.18% 38.77% 43.49% 47.94% 52.15% 56.29% 18 1.46% 2.42% 3.47% 4.61% 5.85% 7.80% 10.37% 13.03% 15.81% 18.71% 21.69% 24.15% 26.18% 28.29% 30.51% 32.82% 35.23% 37.71% 41.21% 45.76% 19 1.82% 3.02% 4.32% 5.73% 7.26% 9.65% 12.79% 16.01% 19.35% 22.81% 26.33% 29.22% 31.57% 34.02% 36.56% 39.18% 41.89% 44.67% 48.52% 53.46% 20 1.51% 2.29% 3.11% 4.01% 4.99% 6.05% 7.20% 8.83% 10.92% 13.16% 15.60% 18.28% 21.12% 23.84% 26.47% 29.19% 31.91% 34.42% 36.81% 39.27% YEAR Policy # 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 1 45.45% 45.65% 45.65% 45.65% 45.65% 45.65% 45.65% 82.91% 87.60% 92.52% 97.55% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2 41.86% 44.52% 47.30% 50.42% 53.63% 56.66% 59.41% 61.77% 63.72% 65.33% 66.72% 67.95% 68.90% 69.47% 69.89% 70.11% 70.11% 70.11% 70.11% 70.11% 3 31.78% 35.30% 38.77% 42.15% 45.37% 48.35% 51.09% 53.32% 54.75% 56.10% 57.35% 58.51% 59.21% 59.21% 59.21% 59.21% 59.21% 59.21% 92.52% 95.19% 4 27.07% 29.82% 33.49% 37.15% 40.74% 44.22% 47.53% 50.57% 53.37% 55.63% 57.09% 58.45% 59.71% 60.87% 61.58% 61.58% 61.58% 61.58% 61.58% 61.58% 5 44.67% 48.52% 53.46% 58.14% 62.51% 66.53% 70.16% 73.32% 76.08% 78.21% 79.53% 80.73% 81.81% 82.79% 83.36% 83.36% 83.36% 83.36% 83.36% 83.36% 6 37.14% 39.65% 41.99% 44.05% 45.79% 47.25% 48.54% 49.70% 50.61% 51.15% 51.57% 51.78% 51.78% 51.78% 51.78% 51.78% 51.78% 87.91% 91.76% 95.50% 7 69.64% 71.91% 73.33% 74.64% 75.84% 76.92% 77.57% 77.57% 77.57% 77.57% 77.57% 77.57% 98.67% 99.36% 99.77% 99.98% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 8 39.21% 42.03% 44.97% 47.79% 50.38% 52.64% 54.52% 56.10% 57.47% 58.70% 59.66% 60.23% 60.66% 60.88% 60.88% 60.88% 60.88% 60.88% 60.88% 93.41% 9 49.26% 51.50% 53.37% 54.93% 56.30% 57.52% 58.48% 59.04% 59.47% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 59.70% 92.81% 95.54% 97.90% 99.60% 100.00% 10 42.23% 45.18% 48.01% 50.60% 52.87% 54.75% 56.33% 57.70% 58.93% 59.89% 60.46% 60.89% 61.12% 61.12% 61.12% 61.12% 61.12% 61.12% 93.52% 96.06% 11 40.62% 43.28% 45.74% 47.91% 49.72% 51.24% 52.58% 53.77% 54.72% 55.27% 55.70% 55.91% 55.91% 55.91% 55.91% 55.91% 55.91% 90.68% 93.94% 96.93% 12 45.63% 47.40% 48.89% 50.20% 51.37% 52.30% 52.85% 53.26% 53.48% 53.48% 53.48% 53.48% 53.48% 53.48% 89.11% 92.72% 96.14% 99.05% 100.00% 100.00% 13 58.92% 63.69% 68.06% 72.01% 75.51% 78.50% 81.06% 83.01% 84.20% 85.27% 86.23% 87.09% 87.59% 87.59% 87.59% 87.59% 87.59% 87.59% 99.76% 99.91% 14 52.14% 54.82% 57.15% 59.07% 60.68% 62.07% 63.31% 64.27% 64.84% 65.28% 65.50% 65.50% 65.50% 65.50% 65.50% 65.50% 95.42% 97.38% 98.92% 99.85% 15 57.40% 58.99% 60.38% 61.62% 62.58% 63.15% 63.59% 63.81% 63.81% 63.81% 63.81% 63.81% 63.81% 94.74% 96.92% 98.67% 99.79% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 16 49.42% 50.74% 51.92% 52.85% 53.40% 53.82% 54.03% 54.03% 54.03% 54.03% 54.03% 54.03% 89.48% 93.01% 96.33% 99.11% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 17 60.21% 63.63% 66.73% 69.76% 72.75% 75.92% 78.99% 81.68% 83.96% 85.80% 87.23% 88.35% 89.28% 90.07% 90.66% 91.00% 91.25% 91.38% 91.38% 91.38% 18 50.17% 54.38% 58.34% 61.99% 65.25% 68.16% 70.45% 71.89% 73.21% 74.43% 75.53% 76.18% 76.18% 76.18% 76.18% 76.18% 76.18% 98.42% 99.22% 99.70% 19 58.14% 62.51% 66.53% 70.16% 73.32% 76.08% 78.21% 79.53% 80.73% 81.81% 82.79% 83.36% 83.36% 83.36% 83.36% 83.36% 83.36% 99.44% 99.77% 99.93% 20 41.85% 44.78% 47.83% 50.73% 53.38% 55.69% 57.61% 59.20% 60.59% 61.83% 62.80% 63.37% 63.80% 64.02% 64.02% 64.02% 64.02% 64.02% 64.02% 94.83% 30
Step 5 Cash Flow Based on Impaired Mortality Matrix Used for Calculating LE Impaired LE impaired = 9.0 years YEAR Policy # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 18,330 47,822 89,445 82,696 74,107 63,978 53,563 43,762 34,900 27,262 20,629 14,984 10,430 6,959 4,460 2,764 1,666 980 563 315 2 2,842 4,270 5,708 7,133 8,512 9,826 11,046 12,098 12,933 13,945 14,898 15,262 15,028 14,210 12,802 10,861 8,718 6,667 4,833 3,300 3 16,776 27,483 38,712 50,329 62,202 74,135 91,676 112,719 130,437 144,036 152,891 155,905 149,598 137,023 123,140 108,444 93,453 78,689 64,637 53,031 4 7,462 12,105 16,934 21,889 27,001 32,241 37,489 42,602 49,824 58,283 65,196 70,233 73,113 73,300 69,406 62,811 55,706 48,353 41,015 33,944 5 3,719 5,981 8,259 10,489 12,647 14,679 16,487 17,974 19,985 21,949 22,708 22,256 20,702 18,185 14,799 11,317 8,344 5,917 4,024 2,616 6 94,337 139,933 186,982 234,320 280,988 346,224 422,711 486,528 535,313 566,600 575,171 552,781 507,757 451,932 388,154 319,729 254,292 196,493 147,490 107,845 7 109,645 260,290 503,759 604,052 648,200 636,897 559,812 454,607 358,033 272,881 200,795 142,287 96,838 64,554 41,167 23,830 12,484 5,904 2,517 966 8 40,132 59,841 79,802 99,877 119,716 138,618 155,975 178,575 203,040 220,353 229,728 230,668 221,679 201,530 174,502 145,332 115,888 87,936 63,939 44,817 9 62,430 91,354 120,121 162,105 211,446 250,831 278,009 291,422 289,070 267,250 233,367 196,209 158,126 121,401 89,409 63,548 43,560 28,850 18,222 10,867 10 7,814 11,575 15,392 19,213 22,900 26,330 30,918 35,952 39,593 41,675 42,095 40,595 36,912 31,908 26,524 21,105 15,977 11,587 8,099 5,452 11 9,073 13,430 17,892 22,333 26,647 32,625 39,503 44,986 48,852 50,889 50,686 47,643 42,668 36,911 30,708 24,420 18,690 13,850 9,935 6,913 12 9,752 14,261 21,165 29,677 37,009 42,762 46,600 48,086 46,223 42,031 36,986 31,364 25,474 19,951 15,161 11,175 8,011 5,518 3,617 2,253 13 19,408 31,327 43,145 54,388 64,580 73,201 84,933 96,111 100,032 96,916 87,860 74,329 57,526 41,476 28,672 18,946 11,927 7,128 4,029 2,188 14 10,921 16,015 21,036 25,825 32,483 39,898 45,200 48,102 48,477 46,161 40,940 34,217 27,384 20,886 15,087 10,396 6,873 4,355 2,648 1,523 15 28,627 44,358 73,027 92,828 106,553 113,227 112,163 101,788 86,226 70,063 54,350 40,004 28,135 19,020 12,347 7,706 4,562 2,534 1,320 645 16 72,841 129,017 222,545 272,061 306,862 323,498 312,850 283,515 248,539 209,869 169,658 132,195 99,896 73,189 52,121 35,643 23,181 14,316 8,401 4,699 17 18,112 27,204 35,909 43,975 51,091 56,990 61,290 63,939 64,743 63,404 60,042 56,199 51,080 43,657 34,988 26,124 17,940 11,177 6,329 3,269 18 29,107 47,764 66,790 85,607 103,611 129,954 159,363 179,528 189,408 188,778 177,851 155,131 127,502 101,749 78,677 58,814 42,401 29,405 20,012 13,065 19 36,318 59,305 82,311 104,421 124,699 153,672 184,035 201,002 204,009 193,978 172,787 141,268 108,028 79,654 56,485 38,412 24,974 15,474 9,301 5,275 20 43,683 65,034 86,534 107,982 128,945 148,613 166,287 189,086 213,175 228,944 235,682 233,094 220,042 195,936 165,701 134,386 104,026 76,388 53,586 36,125 Death Benefits t $641,329 $1,108,367 $1,735,467 $2,131,199 $2,450,202 $2,708,200 $2,869,911 $2,932,382 $2,922,813 $2,825,266 $2,644,320 $2,386,623 $2,077,919 $1,753,431 $1,434,310 $1,135,761 $872,671 $651,523 $474,516 $339,109 YEAR Policy # 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 1 175 96 52 28 15 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - 2 2,139 1,323 780 438 231 113 51 22 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 42,798 32,435 23,049 15,341 9,555 5,562 3,036 1,550 743 344 155 67 28 12 5 2 1 0 0 0 4 27,363 21,987 17,331 12,784 8,811 5,667 3,398 1,897 989 481 219 96 41 17 7 3 1 0 0 0 5 1,621 974 553 280 126 50 18 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 75,912 50,953 32,562 19,821 11,526 6,448 3,494 1,841 943 471 232 113 54 26 13 6 3 2 0 0 7 335 105 30 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - 8 30,259 19,713 12,229 7,150 3,935 2,041 1,001 468 211 92 38 16 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 9 6,110 3,241 1,629 782 361 161 70 29 12 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 3,540 2,188 1,274 698 361 176 82 37 16 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 4,610 2,916 1,748 993 537 278 139 68 32 15 7 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 1,334 754 409 215 109 54 26 12 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-13 1,107 491 191 64 19 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - 14 820 413 194 86 36 15 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 297 130 55 22 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 16 2,523 1,310 660 323 154 72 34 15 7 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 - - - 17 1,528 643 245 85 27 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - 18 7,769 4,196 2,053 909 364 132 43 13 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 2,670 1,202 480 169 53 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-20 23,380 14,545 8,579 4,747 2,461 1,197 549 239 100 40 16 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Death Benefits t $236,291 $159,615 $104,102 $64,945 $38,692 $22,005 $11,958 $6,204 $3,074 $1,465 $675 $304 $135 $59 $26 $11 $5 $3 $1 $0 31
Step #6 85%*LE standard = 85%* (11.41 years) = 9.70 years LE impaired = 9.00 years Therefore, LE impaired <= 85%*LE standard Step #7 85%*LE standard = 85%* (11.41 years) = 9.70 years Final Mortality Matrix LE ifinal = 9.70 years Therefore, Factor = 84.5% YEAR Policy # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2.59% 6.99% 14.35% 15.97% 17.61% 19.15% 20.66% 22.23% 23.91% 25.87% 27.96% 30.01% 31.93% 33.66% 35.12% 36.36% 37.46% 38.46% 39.25% 39.72% 2 1.20% 1.83% 2.51% 3.23% 4.01% 4.86% 5.80% 6.83% 7.95% 9.46% 11.39% 13.50% 15.82% 18.38% 21.12% 23.80% 26.43% 29.15% 31.86% 34.36% 3 0.71% 1.17% 1.68% 2.22% 2.82% 3.48% 4.50% 5.84% 7.27% 8.79% 10.43% 12.13% 13.59% 14.81% 16.11% 17.49% 18.95% 20.49% 22.12% 24.46% 4 0.63% 1.03% 1.46% 1.92% 2.43% 2.99% 3.60% 4.28% 5.27% 6.59% 8.00% 9.52% 11.18% 12.91% 14.42% 15.71% 17.09% 18.54% 20.08% 21.70% 5 1.18% 1.93% 2.72% 3.58% 4.51% 5.53% 6.65% 7.87% 9.66% 11.99% 14.47% 17.10% 19.92% 22.84% 25.33% 27.42% 29.62% 31.92% 34.31% 36.79% 6 1.14% 1.71% 2.34% 3.02% 3.76% 4.85% 6.28% 7.82% 9.49% 11.33% 13.28% 15.14% 16.92% 18.79% 20.68% 22.45% 24.17% 25.97% 27.88% 30.09% 7 1.86% 4.52% 9.27% 12.52% 15.79% 19.08% 21.60% 23.44% 25.38% 27.41% 29.54% 31.77% 34.08% 37.35% 41.64% 45.84% 49.89% 53.73% 57.32% 60.56% 8 1.18% 1.78% 2.42% 3.12% 3.89% 4.73% 5.64% 6.92% 8.58% 10.37% 12.33% 14.50% 16.81% 19.04% 21.22% 23.49% 25.78% 27.91% 29.96% 32.09% 9 1.76% 2.63% 3.58% 5.05% 7.01% 9.09% 11.30% 13.68% 16.19% 18.50% 20.62% 22.84% 25.08% 27.16% 29.16% 31.25% 33.45% 35.98% 38.66% 41.24% 10 1.32% 1.99% 2.71% 3.50% 4.36% 5.28% 6.63% 8.37% 10.24% 12.27% 14.51% 16.88% 19.15% 21.34% 23.62% 25.92% 28.06% 30.12% 32.25% 34.51% 11 1.28% 1.92% 2.62% 3.38% 4.21% 5.43% 7.03% 8.74% 10.60% 12.63% 14.79% 16.83% 18.79% 20.84% 22.91% 24.84% 26.71% 28.66% 30.72% 33.10% 12 1.65% 2.46% 3.77% 5.54% 7.41% 9.39% 11.53% 13.78% 15.82% 17.67% 19.61% 21.58% 23.42% 25.20% 27.06% 29.03% 31.31% 33.74% 36.09% 38.29% 13 1.64% 2.71% 3.85% 5.10% 6.45% 7.92% 10.15% 13.07% 16.11% 19.28% 22.60% 25.98% 28.80% 31.13% 33.55% 36.06% 38.67% 41.35% 44.11% 47.94% 14 1.85% 2.77% 3.77% 4.85% 6.48% 8.63% 10.91% 13.34% 15.97% 18.74% 21.30% 23.69% 26.19% 28.69% 31.00% 33.22% 35.51% 37.93% 40.69% 43.58% 15 2.42% 3.87% 6.70% 9.27% 11.96% 14.83% 17.81% 20.45% 22.76% 25.17% 27.59% 29.84% 32.00% 34.23% 36.59% 39.28% 42.11% 44.82% 47.33% 49.53% 16 2.06% 3.74% 6.76% 9.00% 11.38% 13.87% 16.05% 17.92% 19.89% 21.88% 23.74% 25.54% 27.41% 29.41% 31.72% 34.16% 36.54% 38.75% 40.72% 42.38% 17 1.92% 2.95% 4.04% 5.19% 6.44% 7.78% 9.22% 10.80% 12.54% 14.42% 16.45% 19.10% 22.39% 25.93% 29.77% 33.93% 38.26% 42.40% 46.36% 50.31% 18 1.23% 2.05% 2.94% 3.91% 4.97% 6.63% 8.83% 11.13% 13.53% 16.06% 18.66% 20.83% 22.62% 24.50% 26.48% 28.55% 30.72% 32.97% 36.16% 40.37% 19 1.54% 2.56% 3.66% 4.86% 6.17% 8.22% 10.92% 13.71% 16.62% 19.65% 22.76% 25.33% 27.42% 29.62% 31.92% 34.31% 36.79% 39.35% 42.94% 47.60% 20 1.28% 1.93% 2.64% 3.40% 4.23% 5.14% 6.12% 7.51% 9.31% 11.24% 13.35% 15.68% 18.16% 20.55% 22.88% 25.30% 27.73% 29.98% 32.15% 34.39% YEAR Policy # 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 1 40.08% 40.27% 40.27% 40.27% 40.27% 40.27% 40.27% 77.53% 82.86% 88.82% 95.65% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2 36.76% 39.22% 41.80% 44.72% 47.77% 50.67% 53.32% 55.63% 57.54% 59.14% 60.53% 61.76% 62.73% 63.30% 63.73% 63.96% 63.96% 63.96% 63.96% 63.96% 3 27.61% 30.78% 33.94% 37.02% 40.01% 42.78% 45.36% 47.47% 48.84% 50.13% 51.33% 52.45% 53.13% 53.13% 53.13% 53.13% 53.13% 53.13% 88.82% 92.30% 4 23.41% 25.86% 29.15% 32.46% 35.74% 38.94% 42.01% 44.87% 47.52% 49.68% 51.07% 52.39% 53.61% 54.75% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 55.44% 5 39.35% 42.94% 47.60% 52.09% 56.35% 60.34% 64.01% 67.26% 70.14% 72.41% 73.82% 75.13% 76.31% 77.39% 78.03% 78.03% 78.03% 78.03% 78.03% 78.03% 6 32.45% 34.74% 36.88% 38.78% 40.39% 41.76% 42.96% 44.05% 44.91% 45.42% 45.81% 46.01% 46.01% 46.01% 46.01% 46.01% 46.01% 83.23% 87.87% 92.73% 7 63.48% 65.80% 67.27% 68.63% 69.89% 71.03% 71.72% 71.72% 71.72% 71.72% 71.72% 71.72% 97.41% 98.61% 99.40% 99.92% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 8 34.34% 36.92% 39.64% 42.26% 44.68% 46.82% 48.62% 50.12% 51.45% 52.63% 53.57% 54.12% 54.54% 54.76% 54.76% 54.76% 54.76% 54.76% 54.76% 89.95% 9 43.63% 45.74% 47.51% 49.01% 50.32% 51.49% 52.42% 52.97% 53.38% 53.60% 53.60% 53.60% 53.60% 53.60% 53.60% 89.19% 92.78% 96.18% 99.06% 100.00% 10 37.10% 39.83% 42.46% 44.89% 47.04% 48.83% 50.34% 51.67% 52.86% 53.79% 54.35% 54.77% 54.98% 54.98% 54.98% 54.98% 54.98% 54.98% 90.10% 93.49% 11 35.63% 38.07% 40.35% 42.37% 44.07% 45.50% 46.76% 47.90% 48.80% 49.33% 49.74% 49.95% 49.95% 49.95% 49.95% 49.95% 49.95% 86.54% 90.64% 94.73% 12 40.24% 41.89% 43.28% 44.51% 45.62% 46.50% 47.02% 47.41% 47.62% 47.62% 47.62% 47.62% 47.62% 47.62% 84.64% 89.07% 93.61% 98.04% 100.00% 100.00% 13 52.85% 57.52% 61.88% 65.90% 69.54% 72.72% 75.49% 77.64% 78.97% 80.18% 81.28% 82.26% 82.85% 82.85% 82.85% 82.85% 82.85% 82.85% 99.39% 99.74% 14 46.35% 48.89% 51.13% 52.99% 54.55% 55.92% 57.14% 58.10% 58.66% 59.09% 59.31% 59.31% 59.31% 59.31% 59.31% 59.31% 92.61% 95.40% 97.82% 99.58% 15 51.37% 52.91% 54.26% 55.47% 56.42% 56.99% 57.41% 57.63% 57.63% 57.63% 57.63% 57.63% 57.63% 91.69% 94.71% 97.41% 99.46% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 16 43.78% 45.02% 46.14% 47.02% 47.54% 47.94% 48.15% 48.15% 48.15% 48.15% 48.15% 48.15% 85.08% 89.44% 93.88% 98.16% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 17 54.10% 57.46% 60.55% 63.60% 66.66% 69.97% 73.24% 76.17% 78.69% 80.78% 82.43% 83.74% 84.84% 85.79% 86.51% 86.93% 87.24% 87.40% 87.40% 87.40% 18 44.49% 48.48% 52.28% 55.85% 59.07% 61.98% 64.30% 65.78% 67.15% 68.41% 69.56% 70.25% 70.25% 70.25% 70.25% 70.25% 70.25% 97.00% 98.35% 99.27% 19 52.09% 56.35% 60.34% 64.01% 67.26% 70.14% 72.41% 73.82% 75.13% 76.31% 77.39% 78.03% 78.03% 78.03% 78.03% 78.03% 78.03% 98.75% 99.41% 99.79% 20 36.76% 39.46% 42.29% 45.02% 47.53% 49.74% 51.58% 53.12% 54.47% 55.69% 56.64% 57.20% 57.63% 57.85% 57.85% 57.85% 57.85% 57.85% 57.85% 91.81% 32
33 Criteria
34
35 Criteria
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