Sport-Großereignisse und Tourismus

Sport-Großereignisse und Tourismus Wolfgang Maennig Universität Hamburg INTERNATIONALE TOURISMUSBÖRSE BERLIN 5. MÄRZ 2015

Touristic effects of Mega Sport Events: Usually very optimistic forecasts Germany 2006: Postbank 1 mio. foreign tourists Spending 850 mio. GDP +0,3% German Federation of Hotels 3,2 mio. foreign tourists 5 mio. additional hotel beds to be sold Each tourist to spend 150-200 per day 3,4 bn. additional income South Africa 2014: Grant Thornton, 2004 190.000 overseas tourists (each watching 4 matches), staying 15 days 43.000 african tourists (3 matches), staying 15 days 32 teams, 10.500 international media, 5.000 international VIPs, 500 FIFA officials Grant Thornton, 2005 483.000 overseas tourists

Brazil forecast form 2010: 2.98 million additional visitors, 2010-2014. Source:Ernst & Young (2010)

2003-01 2003-02 2003-03 2003-04 2004-01 2004-02 2004-03 2004-04 2005-01 2005-02 2005-03 2005-04 2006-01 2006-02 2006-03 2006-04 2007-01 2007-02 2007-03 2007-04 2008-01 2008-02 2008-03 2008-04 2009-01 2009-02 2009-03 2009-04 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2011-01 2011-02 2011-03 2011-04 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 2012-04 2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 Olympic Games 2012, London: - loss of ca 350 thousand overnight stays in III/12 - longterm? 5,0 Besucher (in Mio.) in London pro Quartal 4,5 4,0 3,5 Besucher Gleitender Durchschnitt 3,0 2,5 5 Olympische Spiele 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Anzahl der Übernachtungen in Mio. in London pro Quartal 5 4 4 3 3

Mega sport events and tourism: The Case of London 2012 run-aways Source: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_305768.pdf, april, 26th, 2013

Mega sport events and tourism: The Case of London 2012 Source: Office for National Statistics, Statistical Bulletin, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_282767.pdf, October 11th, 2012

Mega sport events and tourism: The Case of London 2012 Source: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_305768.pdf, april, 26th, 2013

140 World Cup South Africa 2010: Number of flights from international destinations at South African international airports April 12 th August 2 nd, 2010 120 100 80 60 40 J Burg International Capetown International Durban International 20 0 12.04.2010 12.05.2010 12.06.2010 12.07.2010 Data Source: http://www.acsa.co.za/index.asp, daily observations Taken from Du Plessis und Maennig (2011) 8

Seat capacity of international air arrivals to South Africa, 12 April 2 August 2010 35000 30000 25000 20000 29.983 22.289 33.525 25.783 seat capacity max seat cap typical 15000 :http://www.acsa.co.za/index.asp (daily observations), http://www.flugzeuginfo.net/acdata_dt.php vom 12.9.2010 Taken from: Du Plessis und Maennig (2011) 9

South Africa: Additional overnight stays (national and international tourists) booked rooms June 2009, daily average booked rooms June 2010, daily average booked rooms, difference June 2010-2009 booked hotel rooms 763.206 982.764 219.557 additional hotel guests 1.373.772 1.768.974 395.203 additional guests in B&B 686.886 884.487 197.601 sum 2.060.657 2.653.462 592.804 Taken from: Du Plessis und Maennig (2011) 10

16 Anzahl der Ankünfte von Nicht-Inländern in South Africa pro Monat (100.000) 14 12 10 8 6 4 Fußball WM 2010 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 - Du Plessis and Maennig (2011): ca. 110.000 additional foreign tourists - Matheson and Szymanski (2012): ca. 200.000 additional foreign tourists - FOURIE AND SANTANA-GALLEGO (2015): Random results of play-off games affect extent of benefits of host country. Little effect on country s traditional partners, but tourism from Latin American countries. Hope for qualification of big, non-traditional countries!

90 Arrivals, Departures China pro Jahr 80 70 60 50 40 Arrivals Departures 30 20 10 Olympische Spiele 2008 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

WM 2006 Deutschland 4,0 Ankünfte pro Monat in Mio.; Deutschland; Originaldaten und Saisonbereinigt 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Fußball WM 2006 0,0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Allmers and Maennig (2007): 100.000 additional arrivals by non-residents

Soccer WC 2006: Hotel Prices Differences to June 2006 http://www.destatis.de/indicators/d/vpigraf07.htm, nov 3rd, 2006

The World Cup 2006 and sectoral employment in Germany Wholesale Trade.2 Communications Engineering.1 Construction -.15 -.05 -.1 0 Treatment Effect on log(employment) 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time -.6 -.4 -.2 0 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time Treatment Effect on log(employment) -.05.05 -.1 0 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time.05 -.05 0 Retail Trade Treatment Effect on log(employment).05.15.1 0 Hospitality Treatment Effect on log(employment) -.05.05 -.1.1 0 Land Transportation -.1 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time -.05 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time -.15 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time Culture, Sports, and Entertainment Publishing.05.05 -.15 -.05 -.1 0 Treatment Effect on log(employment) -.15 -.05 -.1 0 Source: Feddersen and Maennig (2012) -.2 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time -.2 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time 15

The World Cup 2006 and employment in hospitality Q2/ 2006: +2.600 jobs in German hospitality = +0,005% of German employment Source: Feddersen and Maennig (2012)

Merchant sales Germany, 1997-1/2006-8 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 Merchant sales (MS) MS, seasonally adj. 1997M01 1997M11 1998M09 1999M07 2000M05 2001M03 2002M01 2002M11 2003M09 2004M07 2005M05 2006M03 Remark: Real sales, without petrol stations and car sales, 2003=100. Data Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Lange Reihen Binnenhandel, Gastgewerbe, Tourismus Source: Du Plessis/ Maennig (2006)

Übernachtungen (saisonbereinigt) Ex-post evidence of economic benefits Time-Switching (the case of Portugal 2004) 2400000 2300000 2200000 2100000 2000000 2002 2003 2004 1900000 1800000 J F M A M J J A S O N D Quelle: Allmers und Maennig (2008); Allmers und Maennig (2009) 18

Lowest flight prices for alternative flight dates The case of Frankfurt J burg 1.040,00 940,00 840,00 740,00 640,00 540,00 440,00 09.05.2010 09.06.2010 09.07.2010 340,00 Data source: www.bookandsmile.de, daily observations Taken from: Du Plessis und Maennig (2011) 19

Brazil 2014: Hotel Price in Host Cities World Cup period vs other periods Double Room Category 1 star 2 stars 3 stars 4 stars 5 stars 27.12.2013 Low season 15.04.2014 High season 15.06.14 39 42 107 52 56 104 72 88 143 87 115 218 160 183 760 Source: Data colected at www.opodo.de between 5. and 7. nov 2013. (Average of all world cup cities) 20

World Cup 2014 Packages: The case of Germany Including flights, transfers, hotel, excursions, welcome dinner, party etc. Without Tickets 12. Jun 13. Jun 14. Jun 15. Jun 16. Jun 17. Jun 18. Jun 19. Jun 20. Jun 21. Jun 22. Jun 23. Jun 24. Jun 25. Jun 26. Jun 27. Jun 28. Jun 29. Jun 30. Jun 01. Jul 02. Jul 03. Jul 04. Jul 05. Jul 06. Jul 07. Jul 08. Jul 09. Jul 10. Jul 11. Jul 12. Jul 13. Jul 14. Jul 15. Jul 4*-Hotel 4*-EZ 3*-Hotel 3*-EZ Travel Package 1 7 days 4.140,00 995,00 3.650,00 555,00 Travel Package 2 11 days 5.770,00 1.765,00 4.870,00 985,00 Travel Package 3 15 days 6.960,00 2.395,00 5.950,00 1.385,00 Travel Package 4 20 days 8.980,00 3.385,00 7.760,00 1.885,00 Travel Package 5 24 days 11.110,00 4.545,00 9.390,00 2.555,00 Travel Package 6 32 days 16.650,00 6.865,00 13.990,00 4.295,00 Travel Package 7 6 days 3.730,00 775,00 3.330,00 445,00 Travel Package 8 10 days 4.990,00 1.425,00 4.290,00 835,00 Travel Package 9 15 days 7.270,00 2.395,00 6.160,00 1.335,00 Travel Package 10 19 days 9.280,00 3.555,00 7.790,00 1.975,00 Travel Package 11 27 days 14.970,00 5.875,00 12.550,00 3.685,00 Travel Package 12 6 days 3.770,00 665,00 3.390,00 395,00 Travel Package 13 11 days 5.870,00 1.655,00 5.190,00 895,00 Travel Package 14 15 days 7.790,00 2.775,00 6.960,00 1.555,00 Travel Package 15 23 days 13.650,00 5.095,00 11.650,00 3.265,00 Travel Package 16 9 days 4.270,00 1.365,00 3.650,00 775,00 Travel Package 17 11 days 6.960,00 2.125,00 5.990,00 1.195,00 Travel Package 18 19 days 12.530,00 4.445,00 10.770,00 2.845,00 Travel Package 19 6 days 4.990,00 1.135,00 4.540,00 695,00 Travel Package 20 14 days 10.730,00 3.455,00 9.390,00 2.265,00 Travel Package 21 10 days 7.950,00 2.325,00 6.980,00 1.655,00 Travel Package 22 6 days 7.270,00 1.655,00 6.550,00 1.175,00 http://www.vietentours.com/fussball-weltmeisterschaft/wm-tickets-2014-reisen 21

Summarizing runaways Couch-potatoe-effect time-switching crowding-out of normal tourism: esp. if event in high-season, and traditional touristic places shift events to off-season, non-traditional sites Price crowding out: economic impact studies and selfdefeating effects Be careful with economic impact studies! Scope for second-tier events?