National Security impacted by Global Change

National Security impacted by Global Change NATIONAL SECURITY SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY To provide a national focus for science and technology to enhance Australia s national security capabilities Dr Richard Davis National Security Science & Technology Branch Office of National Security Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

Key Themes

National Security Context 3

Two key reform documents

National Security Adviser Defence policy and operations, intelligence coordination and the NSST Branch Including border security, counterterrorism, emergency management, infrastructure security, NCTC Secretariat Provision of international policy advice, as well as ceremonial and hospitality coordination Strategic advice on particular international policy issues

The NSST Branch

National Security Science and Innovation Strategy

Key themes for development of the Strategy

Triple Helix model Aim to maximise benefit and leverage from the three sectors collaborating Scope for enhanced contribution to public policy debate and analysis 10

Research Support for Counter-Terrorism

Key Drivers 12

National Security Statement (selected excerpts...) improving the coordination of national security policy with reform of the structure of national security decision making through establishing for the first time a National Security Adviser; Implementing the recommendations of the Smith Report..this includes the initiatives I have announced on organised crime, border securityand science and innovation Australia must also apply a risk-basedapproach to assessing, prioritising and resourcing our national security policy across the defence, diplomatic, intelligence and wider national security community. Effective mitigation of terrorist attacks involves the combination of an appropriate security response with broader strategies to enhance social cohesion and resilience and lessen the appeal of radical ideology. incorporating the implications of climate change and energy security into the formal national security decision making framework. 13

Practical steps Expanding the community Expanded SCNS, HPCG, NICC Coordinated national security evaluation & budget Creation of Exec Coord(SES2) Enhanced information sharing Creation of NS CIO (SES2) Education & training National security college

Global Risks 2009 9/10 Economic indicators in top quadrant Societal indictors 3/5 in top quadrant Pandemic Chronic disease Liability regimes (litigation & community risk) 12/14 top issues were Economic or Societal. Others were: Global governance gaps Critical Information Infrastructure breakdown 15

Annual Threat Assessment (US Director of National Intelligence*) 1. Global Financial crisis 2. Violent Extremism 3. Geo-strategic assessments 4. Cyber security 5. Environment security Including climate change *Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence community, Denis Blair, Feb 2009 16

Human & Social factors 17

Radicalisation 21 of 30 people charged with terrorism in Australia are Australian born. Overall 40 Australian citizens or permanent residents are confirmed, assessed or suspectedto have received terrorist training in Afghanistan or Pakistan. Significant focus of research and community outreach in Australia 18

Radicalisation (Countering Violent Extremism) Understanding the drivers and paths to violent extremism Understanding the factors which assist with counter-extremism and de-radicalisation The role of the internet and other communications media The role of communities 19

Social Resilience Capacity of a population to prepare for and respond effectively to large-scale crises Acute v chronic Local v virtual/distributed (diaspora) Known v unknown Role of federal, state & local government & agencies Key enablers Education, training Knowledge & communications Resources & support 20

Psycho-social response to CBRN The Unknown Dread The uncontrollable Management: Knowledge Information & learning resources Dealing with dread Control & Action Professor Beverly Raphael, UWS 21

Augmenting Phenotype By creating devices: Combat armour Exoskeletons Night Vision Goggles Sensors Mobility Lethality Enhancing Genotype By genetically: Growing a metallic skin Identifying genes that improve vision at night Increasing muscular and cardiovascular performance Improving cognitive function Silicon / biological interfaces 21 st Century technology race : enhance genotype vs augment phenotype (from DSTO)

Modelling & Simulation 23

Modelling & Simulation Current M&S support to government decision making, includes: Economic modelling (Treasury) Climate change (CSIRO support to Garnautreview) Pandemic modelling (DOHA) CIP modelling CIPMA (AGD) Broadening the application SIAA Emergency Management SIG Socio-economic interplay with enviro-security factors 24

CIPMA CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION MODELLING & ANALYSIS Attorney General s Department

1. Overview of CIP in Australia Critical Infrastructure is defined as those physical facilities, supply chains, information technologies and communication networks which if destroyed, degraded or rendered unavailable for an extended period would significantly impact on the social or economic wellbeing of the nation or affect Australia s ability to conduct national defence and ensure national security

2. CIPMA Overview SYSTEM MODELLING DECISION SUPPORT INFORMATION & DATA ELECTRICITY GAS ECONOMIC SOCIAL INVESTMENT BUSINESS CONTINUITY SECURITY RESILIENCE LIQUID FUELS COMMUNICATIONS BROADCASTING BANKING & FINANCE WATER Acknowledged gap in modelling social factors

Conclusions New national security arrangements are encouraging broader participation and cooperation Inclusion of climate change, economic impact, resource/energy security Human/social factors critical for understanding overall system Specific interest in radicalisation & resilience Modelling & simulation scope for greater analytical support to public policy 28