INVESTMENT INCOME PROJECTION & FORECASTING Session 703
AGENDA Conceptual Fundamentals Market expectations and projection Investment scenarios and forecasts for various asset classes Reporting Field Report of Investment Forecasting in Practice Necessity of an investment forecast Components of the investment forecast Challenges Potential System Support
CONCEPTUAL FUNDAMENTALS Two important Questions to answer: What is my risk today? What will my income statement look like at the end of the year?
CONCEPTUAL FUNDAMENTALS INVESTMENT FORECAST AND PLANNING IS AN ASPECT OF AN OVERALL INVESTMENT CONTROLLING APPROACH
MARKET EXPECTATIONS AND PROJECTION FACTORS IN THE INVESTMENT FORECAST PROCESS
INVESTMENT SCENARIOS Scenario Based Planning is an excellent way of controlling risk
INVESTMENT SCENARIOS Market Data Assumptions
INVESTMENT SCENARIOS With only little parameter input a projection about future interest rates has to be generated Tenor April, 9 2015 Dec. 31, 2015 Muni Yield 1 yr 0.2900% 0.300% 2 yrs 0.5500% 0.500% 3 yrs 0.7867% 0.700% 4 yrs 1.0233% 0.900% 5 yrs 1.2600% 1.100% 6 yrs 1.4040% 1.220% 7 yrs 1.5480% 1.340% 8 yrs 1.6920% 1.460% 9 yrs 1.8360% 1.580% 10 yrs 1.9800% 1.700% Input Parameter 2.0000% 1.8000% 1.6000% 1.4000% 1.2000% 1.0000% 0.8000% 0.6000% 0.4000% 0.2000% 0.0000% 2 3 4 5 6 9 10 8 7 1
INVESTMENT SCENARIOS Rule-based Portfolio Projection (Simplification) Data Area Insurance Technique Investment related cash Investment Sales Available Capital Portfolio Management Current Portfolio External Input Generated by holdings and conditions From different investment systems Automated Calculation Directly loaded from investment management system Projection External Input with historical distribution Automatically calculated under reinvestment assumption and investment scenario Free planning under scenario and on different aggregation level Automated Calculation Management of available capital for future investment scenario
PROCESS OF THE PLANNING & PROJECTION PROCEDURE
FIELD REPORT OF INVESTMENT FORECASTING IN PRACTICE
Necessity of an Investment Forecast Investment income may be the bottom line! Important part of Company budget Required for quarterly analyst guidance 2014: Co A Co B Co C Co D Net Investment Income $ 1,394 $ 549 $446 $138 Net Income $ 2,861 $ 721 $830 $197 NII / NI 49% 76% 54% 70%
Components of an Investment Forecast 1 - Cash Flows 2 - Investment Assets / Average Assets 3 - Net Investment Income 4 - Analysis
Components of an Investment Forecast CASHFLOWS - Sources Tax Department: tax payments Capital Group: M&A, stock or debt repurchases, debt issuance, shareholder dividends FP&A: Insurance operations, with monthly seasonality, reinsurance premiums, etc Investment managers: reinvestment rates, calls, investment strategies, required cash balances Investment Systems: Maturities and paydowns, interest and dividends Investments Cashflows Treasury & Other: Other significant inflows or outflows
Components of an Investment Forecast CASHFLOWS Build monthly activity: Beginning cash balance Cash in from investments Cash in/out from insurance operations, capital activity Assess activity: Need to sell bonds to support insurance ops? Have excess to invest? What do you invest in? This month s activity impacts the remainder of the year
Components of an Investment Forecast INVESTMENT ASSETS Investment Assets, Average Assets Start with actual assets Build monthly change in assets using cashflow data: purchases or sales of bonds, equities, mortgages, etc. Calculate average assets so you can watch your yields, monitor fluctuations
Components of an Investment Forecast INVESTMENT INCOME - Sources Calculation: Reduce income for maturities, calls and sales from cashflow model Investment managers: assumptions for defaults, consent fees, special dividends, partnerships Calculation: Add income related to purchases and changes in asset mix from cashflow model Business Partners: Investment expenses Investment Systems: Current portfolio yield coupon, dividends, amortization(?) Net Investment Income Other: Foreign currency rates
Components of an Investment Forecast INVESTMENT INCOME & YIELDS Build monthly income Current portfolio + Income from new assets purchased + Income from projected consent fees - Lost income from sales, calls - Lost income from defaults Calculate forecasted earned yields using NII and average assets
Components of an Investment Forecast ANALYSIS THIS IS THE HARD PART! Why is this forecast different from the prior forecast? Why is next year different from this year? We calculate variances caused by: Higher/lower cash flows Higher/lower yields Higher/lower currency exchange rates Different asset mix
Components of an Investment Forecast ANALYSIS To help address variables, we develop sensitivity analysis for new money rates and foreign currency Trends: Maturities, calls and sales are depleting NII at a greater rate than the rate at which we can reinvest
Challenges Systems Accuracy of yields, cashflows, etc. Analysis Reporting
POTENTIAL SYSTEM SUPPORT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM SUPPORT Potential System Support
POTENTIAL SYSTEM SUPPORT MAJOR TARGETS FOR IMPLEMENTING THE PROJECTION TOOL (1/2)
POTENTIAL SYSTEM SUPPORT MAJOR TARGETS FOR IMPLEMENTING THE PROJECTION TOOL (2/2)
POTENTIAL SYSTEM SUPPORT Typical System Architecture (1/2)
POTENTIAL SYSTEM SUPPORT Typical System Architecture (2/2)
Contact: Kay Malloy Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Jorg Pappert COMPIRICUS Inc. Kmalloy@hanover.com jorg.pappert@compiricus.com
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