MORE ON TVM, "SIX FUNCTIONS OF A DOLLAR", FINANCIAL MECHANICS. Copyright 2004, S. Malpezzi



Similar documents
Chapter 6 Interest Rates and Bond Valuation

Present Value Methodology

Methodology of the CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUT SM ) (with supplemental information regarding the CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite T-W Index (PWT SM ))

Lecture 40 Induction. Review Inductors Self-induction RL circuits Energy stored in a Magnetic Field

Ground rules. Guide to the calculation methods of the FTSE Actuaries UK Gilts Index Series v1.9

12/7/2011. Procedures to be Covered. Time Series Analysis Using Statgraphics Centurion. Time Series Analysis. Example #1 U.S.

Insurance. By Mark Dorfman, Alexander Kling, and Jochen Russ. Abstract

GUIDANCE STATEMENT ON CALCULATION METHODOLOGY

Index Mathematics Methodology

Table of contents Chapter 1 Interest rates and factors Chapter 2 Level annuities Chapter 3 Varying annuities

Prices of Credit Default Swaps and the Term Structure of Credit Risk

PROFIT TEST MODELLING IN LIFE ASSURANCE USING SPREADSHEETS PART ONE

Spline. Computer Graphics. B-splines. B-Splines (for basis splines) Generating a curve. Basis Functions. Lecture 14 Curves and Surfaces II

The Time Value of Money

1 HALF-LIFE EQUATIONS

Simple Interest Loans (Section 5.1) :

Guidelines and Specification for the Construction and Maintenance of the. NASDAQ OMX Credit SEK Indexes

Chapter 8: Regression with Lagged Explanatory Variables

The Rules of the Settlement Guarantee Fund. 1. These Rules, hereinafter referred to as "the Rules", define the procedures for the formation

Section 5.4 Annuities, Present Value, and Amortization

Section 5.3 Annuities, Future Value, and Sinking Funds

Y2K* Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé. Rutgers Uni ersity, 75 Hamilton Street, New Brunswick, New Jersey

Time Value of Money. Types of Interest. Compounding and Discounting Single Sums. Page 1. Ch. 6 - The Time Value of Money. The Time Value of Money

Chapter 6: Business Valuation (Income Approach)

Selected Financial Formulae. Basic Time Value Formulae PV A FV A. FV Ad

How To Calculate Backup From A Backup From An Oal To A Daa

Duration and Convexity ( ) 20 = Bond B has a maturity of 5 years and also has a required rate of return of 10%. Its price is $613.

10.2 Future Value and Present Value of an Ordinary Simple Annuity

Estimating intrinsic currency values

Morningstar Investor Return

Diagnostic Examination

The Feedback from Stock Prices to Credit Spreads

Network Effects on Standard Software Markets: A Simulation Model to examine Pricing Strategies

Linear Extension Cube Attack on Stream Ciphers Abstract: Keywords: 1. Introduction

Random Walk in 1-D. 3 possible paths x vs n. -5 For our random walk, we assume the probabilities p,q do not depend on time (n) - stationary

Individual Health Insurance April 30, 2008 Pages

Name: Algebra II Review for Quiz #13 Exponential and Logarithmic Functions including Modeling

Acceleration Lab Teacher s Guide

Using Series to Analyze Financial Situations: Present Value

Optimal Taxation. 1 Warm-Up: The Neoclassical Growth Model with Endogenous Labour Supply. β t u (c t, L t ) max. t=0

Equities: Positions and Portfolio Returns

Section 2.2 Future Value of an Annuity

HEAT CONDUCTION PROBLEM IN A TWO-LAYERED HOLLOW CYLINDER BY USING THE GREEN S FUNCTION METHOD

Chapter 2 Problems. 3600s = 25m / s d = s t = 25m / s 0.5s = 12.5m. Δx = x(4) x(0) =12m 0m =12m

Fixed Income Attribution. Remco van Eeuwijk, Managing Director Wilshire Associates Incorporated 15 February 2006

Capital budgeting techniques

What influences the growth of household debt?

In our example i = r/12 =.0825/12 At the end of the first month after your payment is received your amount in the account, the balance, is

THE IMPACT OF UNSECURED DEBT ON FINANCIAL DISTRESS AMONG BRITISH HOUSEHOLDS. Ana del Río and Garry Young. Documentos de Trabajo N.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

HEURISTIC ALGORITHM FOR SINGLE RESOURCE CONSTRAINED PROJECT SCHEDULING PROBLEM BASED ON THE DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING

Capacity Planning. Operations Planning

Return Persistence, Risk Dynamics and Momentum Exposures of Equity and Bond Mutual Funds

Chapter 4: Exponential and Logarithmic Functions

Mortality Variance of the Present Value (PV) of Future Annuity Payments

1. Math 210 Finite Mathematics

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMETRICS AND BUSINESS STATISTICS. Exponential Smoothing for Inventory Control: Means and Variances of Lead-Time Demand

PerfCenter: A Methodology and Tool for Performance Analysis of Application Hosting Centers

The US Dollar Index Futures Contract

Chapter 9 Bond Prices and Yield

Time Series. A thesis. Submitted to the. Edith Cowan University. Perth, Western Australia. David Sheung Chi Fung. In Fulfillment of the Requirements

Solution: Let i = 10% and d = 5%. By definition, the respective forces of interest on funds A and B are. i 1 + it. S A (t) = d (1 dt) 2 1. = d 1 dt.

Section 2.3 Present Value of an Annuity; Amortization

RESOLUTION OF THE LINEAR FRACTIONAL GOAL PROGRAMMING PROBLEM

Fundamental Analysis of Receivables and Bad Debt Reserves

Market-Clearing Electricity Prices and Energy Uplift

One dictionary: Native language - English/English - native language or English - English

4. International Parity Conditions

The Transport Equation

13. a. If the one-year discount factor is.905, what is the one-year interest rate?

Finite Math Chapter 10: Study Guide and Solution to Problems

(Im)possibility of Safe Exchange Mechanism Design

C Fast-Dealing Property Trading Game C

Double Entry System of Accounting

CLASSIFICATION OF REINSURANCE IN LIFE INSURANCE

Kalman filtering as a performance monitoring technique for a propensity scorecard

Chapter 4 Multiple-Degree-of-Freedom (MDOF) Systems. Packing of an instrument

Testing techniques and forecasting ability of FX Options Implied Risk Neutral Densities. Oren Tapiero

An Alternative Way to Measure Private Equity Performance

cooking trajectory boiling water B (t) microwave time t (mins)


FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, THE USER COST OF CAPITAL AND CORPORATE INVESTMENT IN AUSTRALIA

Chapter 2 Kinematics in One Dimension

Intra-year Cash Flow Patterns: A Simple Solution for an Unnecessary Appraisal Error

Social security, education, retirement and growth*

The Definition and Measurement of Productivity* Mark Rogers

RC (Resistor-Capacitor) Circuits. AP Physics C

3. Present value of Annuity Problems

Mathematics in Pharmacokinetics What and Why (A second attempt to make it clearer)

The Japan-U.S. Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Competitiveness of Japanese Industries*

Transcription:

MORE ON VM, "SIX FUNCIONS OF A DOLLAR", FINANCIAL MECHANICS Copyrgh 2004, S. Malpezz I wan everyone o be very clear on boh he "rees" (our basc fnancal funcons) and he "fores" (he dea of he cash flow model). Le's look a he rees n hs handou. See also he Appendx n Shllng, pp. 653 ff. In he handou on presen values we learned how o: () Compue he fuure value of a one me depos (compoundng). (2) Compue he fuure value of a seres of perodc paymens (an annuy). (3) Compue he presen value of a one me fuure recep (dscounng). (4) Compue he presen value of a seres of fuure receps. We wll revew hese, and also how o: (5) Deermne how much mus be se asde perodcally o accumulae a ceran value (snkng fund). (6) Deermne he consan perodc paymen necessary o repay (amorze) a loan. Pay parcular aenon o how each of hese "funcons of a dollar" are relaed. We sared wh a famlar concep, "he mracle of compound neres," and buld hem up one by one. Revew of he Frs Four Funcons he key o undersandng all hs suff s smply hs: a dollar oday s worh more han a dollar omorrow. How much more? ha depends on your dscoun rae. For each of hese funcons you have several opons open o you: () Wre down he cash flows, fgure ou he weghs for each perod and add hem up. I prefer o do hs n a spreadshee when I can. (2) Shorcu formulas. hese can be useful, bu excessve focus on "wha's he formula" whou undersandng s dervaon can obscure wha s acually gong on. (3) Punch daa no your fnancal calculaor. Fas and easy, bu as wh (2) make sure you undersand wha goes on behnd he scenes. (4) Fnancal ables. hese are obsolee, and we no longer each hem. If you re neresed, see Shllng s appendx. (5) Spreadshee funcons. hs s wha you ll probably do mos ofen f you become a real esae professonal. We llusrae

2 hese mehods n class, bu canno rely on hem for exams (for obvous reasons). We go back and forh among mehods. Mehod yelds superor undersandng. Funcon : Fuure Value of a Dollar oday Suppose we know he presen value (a dollar oday s worh a dollar oday), and we wan o fnd he fuure value. We showed n he PV handou ha he general formula for he fuure value A of an amoun A 0 nvesed oday a rae o me s: Fuure Value FV A = A 0 *(+) hs calculaon s easy o carry ou wh any calculaor ha calculaes exponens, or usng he exponen operaor ("^") n a spreadshee. Funcon 2: Fuure Value of a Seres of Perodc Paymens By smply exendng he formula above o many paymens, A, FV = A (+) + A 2 (+) - +... + A In he specal case where each paymen A s he same, namely A: FV = A = (+ ) - (+ ) - = A Agan, one can use hs formula, 2 or he fnancal calculaor; one can use he =FV funcon n a spreadshee. FV reurns he fuure value of an nvesmen based on perodc, consan paymens and a consan neres rae: FV(rae,nper,pm,pv,ype) Rae s he neres rae per perod. In my handou I wroe A as he amoun n me (he fuure value) and A 0 as he amoun n me 0 (oday, he presen value). Somemes you wll see hs wren dfferenly, e.g. F or FV for fuure value and P or PV for presen value. Ge used o seeng dfferen noaon from dfferen sources. If you rely oo much on one se of noaon you wll be unable o handle fuure work, snce (for beer or for worse) everyone uses dfferen symbols. 2 Mah fans! Sep by sep dervaon of all he mporan formulas, ncludng he properes of nfne seres whch we use o derve hem, can be found n Sanley Grossman, Calculus (Academc Press, 977), Chaper 6, "Exponenals and Logarhms," especally he secons on applcaons o economcs and fnance.

Nper s he oal number of paymen perods n an annuy. Pm s he paymen made each perod; canno change over he lfe of he annuy. If pm s omed, you mus nclude he pv argumen. Pv s he presen value, or he lump-sum amoun ha a seres of fuure paymens s worh rgh now. If pv s omed, s assumed o be 0 (zero), and you mus nclude he pm argumen. ype s he number 0 or and ndcaes when paymens are due. If ype s omed, s assumed o be 0. Se ype equal o 0 f paymens are due a he end of he perod, and f due a he begnnng of he perod. (End of perod dscounng s he norm n real esae). Funcon 3: Presen Value of a One-me Recep 3 urnng he noon of compoundng on s head, f we wan o know how much an amoun receved a me s worh oday (me 0), we showed ha by solvng Funcon for A 0 we ge PV A 0 = A /(+) whch s he presen value of fuure amoun A. Calculang usng he formula s sraghforward, n a calculaor or n Excel. Bu be careful; he =PV funcon n Excel does no reurn he presen value of a one me recep; raher =PV(,n,A) reurns he presen value of a seres of equal receps A (see Funcon 4, below). Of course o calculae he presen value of a sngle gven cash flow you may also use he Appendx able, Column 4, "Presen Value of." Funcon 4(a): Presen Value of a Seres of Fuure Receps o represen PV more generally, we make use of he followng noaon, where he Greek leer Sgma means "sum" (add over all perods, from he nal perod 0 o he fnal perod ) PV A0 = =0 A (+ ) Spreadshees and fnancal calculaors wll calculae he presen values of any se of cash flows you ener n. Be careful f enerng a se of flows n a calculaor; n an exam (as n a real world problem) 's a good dea o ener he daa and calculae he PV wce, as 's easy o mspunch one of a seres of cash flows. Excel's =PV funcon calculaes he ne presen value of a seres of equal cash flows: =PV(,n,A). Excel's =NPV funcon calculaes he ne presen value of a seres of uneven (dfferen) cash flows: =NPV(, range conanng he cash flows). A few qurks: Excel (and mos oher spreadshees) assume ha he cash flow n he frs cell n he range s perod, he second cell perod 2, ec. hs mples ha f you have a perod 0 (undscouned) cash flow you mus calculae as per he followng example:

4 =C2+NPV(.,D2:F2), where he perod 0 cash flow s n cell C2 and cells D2, E2 and F2 conan perods, 2 and 3 respecvely, and hese are o be dscouned a 0 percen. Funcon 4(b): Presen Value of A Seres of Equal Paymens When each amoun A s he same, hen we have he presen value of an annuy (see Funcon 2 for he fuure value of same). If we can compue he fuure value we can ceranly dscoun back o he presen,.e. by compung: -(+ ) PV = A -n Snce presen values are addve, Funcon 4(b) can be handy even when some flows are dfferen; one can compue he presen value n pars, f one s careful o keep rack o avod double counng. Personally, I prefer o use a fnancal calculaor and/or a spreadshee whou he shorcu o lessen he chance of error. Alernavely you can use he =PV funcon n Excel. Funcon 4(c): Presen Value of a Perpeuy A shorcu: usng calculus can be shown ha, n he lm, f each and every A s he same (le's say A), as approaches nfny hs formula becomes: A0 = A whch s easy and requres no able or fancy calculaor. wo New Funcons Funcon 5: Snkng Fund Accumulaon How much wll have o be se asde each perod n an accoun payng gven neres o accumulae a parcular fuure value? hs would be very useful o you f you ever have o save for a parcular purpose (e.g. o pay your chldren's college uon!). In apprasal we wll use hs o compue he so-called "recapure premum" requred for a "boom up" cap rae (of whch more laer). From Funcon 2, we know how o compue he fuure value of a seres of paymens: FV = A (+) + A 2 (+) - +... + A bu hs s a smple problem where () we assume each A s he same (equal paymens), call he amoun A, and (2) we know he fuure value nsead of he

5 paymens. he soluon s sraghforward: FV = A * [(+) + (+) - +... + ] by rearrangng erms we ge A = FV * S where S s he "snkng fund facor" we need,.e. S = (+ ) +(+ ) - = +...+ (+ ) - S can also be found usng a fnancal calculaor. One can also fnd he requred paymen drecly usng he =PM funcon n Excel, usng he form =PM(,n,0,FV) where and n are as before; 0 s enered as he hrd elemen because hs elemen s he presen value of he expresson (whch s zero n hs case), and FV s he desred fuure value. Funcon Sx: he Consan Perodc Paymen Requred o Amorze a Loan Wha are he paymens requred o fully amorze (pay off prncpal as well as neres) a parcular loan amoun, gven a consan neres rae and a fxed erm? Rehnk he problem as follows. Each perod he lender receves an equal paymen, whch he or she dscouns o he presen (see funcon 4). he neres rae s, n hs case, he rae a whch we dscoun. Our problem hen becomes urnng PV on s head: Gven PV and an neres rae a whch o dscoun, wha seres of equal annual paymens s equvalen? Example. Wha annual paymens are requred o amorze an 8 percen, 3 year, $5,000 loan? 5000 = A/.08 + A/.08 2 + A/.08 3 = A [/.08 + /.08 2 + /.08 3 ] = A * 2.577 So A = 5000/2.577 = 5000 *.3880 = $940.7 Generalzaon. Wh a bunch of manpulaon, s no oo hard o solve for he paymen A whch yelds a presen value PV, A= PV * = (+ = PV * - ) (+ ) where s he neres rae and s he erm of he loan. One can use he formula; or any busness calculaor has such a funcon bul n drecly. In Excel use he =PM funcon: =PM(,n,PV).

6 ps on Applyng hese Sx Funcons One of he mos common msakes s o confuse monhly and annual amouns n calculaons or ables. I's easy enough o calculae a monhly morgage paymen and mulply by 2 o ge annual paymens on a monhly morgage; bu 's also easy enough o forge (I sll do so occasonally). A second common msake s o forge o add posve cash flows and subrac negave ones. Sounds hard o forge, bu you'd be surprsed. Anoher common msake s o forge o remember ha spreadshee formulas assume dscounng of he frs cash flow when n many problems he frs flow s undscouned (see above, dscusson of =NPV). Sudens ofen nally confuse he =PM, =PV and =NPV funcons n Excel and/or he equvalen funcons n her fnancal calculaors. Spend a lle me praccng wh hem f you are usng spreadshees. ha suggess one hng he appendx ables are good for: see f you can replcae numbers n he Appendx ables, e.g. he paymen needed o amorze a $ loan. hs s good pracce wheher you use spreadshees, fnancal calculaors, or formulas. Morgage Balance Wha s he ousandng balance on a morgage? Answerng hs queson s easy f we realze ha hs s jus he presen value of he remanng sream of neres paymens, dscouned a he rae of neres. For example, suppose we had a $00,000 30 year fxed rae morgage a 2 percen (monhly paymens). Monhly paymens would be $,028.6 (check). Wha s he ousandng balance afer 5 years? snce here are 300 MB= 028.6* 300 = = 028.6* 94.9465 = $97,662.97 (.0 ) paymens lef afer 5 years. Afer 5 years, he balance has declned by only $2,337.03. here are oher ways o calculae he balance. Somemes I prefer o calculae he neres and paymen of each morgage paymen separaely and explcly, f I don' have oo many o do. Excel has funcons =CUMIPM and =CUMPRINC whch compue he poron of a paymen ha s neres and prncpal, respecvely. Prned amorzaon schedules are also wdely avalable.