TenneT Vision2030. Foreword

Vision2030

Foreword This document describes Vision2030, TenneT s long-term vision of the 380-kV and 220-kV elements of the Netherlands national electricity transmission grid. Why have we developed this vision of the future? TenneT is constantly working to ensure that the Netherlands has a reliable and adequate high-voltage grid. As a basis for meeting the nation s needs, we publish a Quality and Capacity lan once every two years. Each plan looks seven years ahead and seeks to anticipate the changes that will be needed in that period in order to secure the electricity supply going forwards. The Quality and Capacity lan forms the basis for any extension of the grid in the medium term. However, the development and realisation of long-distance high-voltage links and the associated substations often takes considerably more than seven years, because of the procedures involved and the associated preparations. By contrast, new power plants ( the demand ) take only three to five years to develop. Since the regulator does not allow speculative investment, the annual monitoring does not reflect market players investment plans sufficiently promptly, yet society expects that new production units can be connected to the grid in good time, it is important to have a clear picture of what the grid will be like in the longer term. Only then can the necessary preparations be made sufficiently early. This implies forecasting future developments and the associated problems in good time. An analysis of the long-term developments in electricity supply in the Netherlands is very important in this regard. Vision2030 fulfils this need. With our long-term vision of the grid infrastructure, we are also seeking to respond appropriately to society s desire for transition to a sustainable energy supply system. J.M. Kroon CEO 1

Vision2030 Foreword 1 Summary 4 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Introduction 6 Mission: operation of the national electricity transmission grid 6 The need for a long-term vision 6 The aim of Vision2030 7 The scope of Vision2030 7 2 General developments 8 Guidance note 15 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Scenarios for 2030 16 The scenario as a planning tool 16 Four scenarios 16 The Green Revolution Scenario 17 The Sustainable Transition scenario 19 The New Strongholds scenario 20 The Money Rules scenario 22 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 Network analysis 24 Basic assumptions 24 Basic input data for the network model 24 Results of the network analysis 27 5 Vision2030 grid concept 38 6 Grid development: the medium-term position 42 7 Review and follow-up 46 References 48 Appendices 50 3

Summary As operator of the Netherlands electricity transmission grid, TenneT is committed to ensuring a safe, reliable and efficient power supply, now and in the future. Through our management of the electricity transmission grid, the backbone of the Netherlands power supply system, we are actively facilitating the reliable supply of energy, the development of the North-West European electricity market and the transition to energy sustainability. Vision2030 has been conceived as a clear and coherent long-term vision of the development of the electricity transmission grid in the Netherlands. The vision reflects our desire for flexible and lasting solutions. Vision2030 is intended to be an integrated view of the entire Dutch electricity transmission grid between 380 kv and 110 kv. That comprehensive vision is being developed in stages, with this report covering those elements of the grid rated at between 380 and 220 kv. The energy market is highly dynamic, and the energy landscape of the future will be defined by a variety of unconnected developments. The divergent nature of these developments means it is not easy to predict how they will affect electricity transmission needs. Four trend scenarios have therefore been developed as a basis for forward analysis. Each scenario involves an alternative pattern of factors shaping the development of the Netherlands high-voltage grid in the period up to 2030. The scenarios are characterised by different renewable power penetration levels and different degrees of regulatory constraint on market forces. The Green Revolution and Sustainable Transition scenarios assume a society committed to sustainability, while the Money Rules and New Strongholds scenarios envisage a society that remains largely dependent on fossil fuels. The Green Revolution and Money Rules scenarios are characterised by a high degree of market globalisation, whereas the Sustainable Transition and New Strongholds scenarios foresee a world in which the world s markets are organised predominantly along regional lines and there is more protectionism. The scenarios have been developed as a basis for forecasting future electricity grid transmission loads. 4

Realistically extreme estimates of the way in which the demand for and supply of electricity may develop have been made, in order to assess the consequences of peak loads on the grid. These extremes represent the outer limits of the range of possible developments in the electricity market. On the basis of the four scenarios, a number of possible transmission grid configurations and associated transmission capacities have been worked out and tested for their resilience. An initial analysis suggests that the direct connection of coastal production locations is undesirable, since it would lead to uneven power distribution across the various links and to mutual interference by transmissions from the various production locations. The network model therefore assumes that the new coastal locations will each be linked directly to a reinforced 380-kV ring structure. The network analysis and the associated network configuration are described for each scenario. Using the output from the analyses, we have developed a grid concept that is applicable to all scenarios and capable of accommodating further developments in the future. The philosophy behind the grid concept is: one strong 380-kV ring in the proximity of the load in the central and western parts of the Netherlands; direct connections from large scale production locations to load centres or the 380-kV ring. The ring concept maximises the scope for adapting not only to developments in the load and distributed generation patterns, but also to developments in grid input at the coastal locations, from new production units, offshore wind farms and international overland and undersea interconnectors. The report ends with a review, which includes conclusions and follow-up recommendations. 5

01 Introduction 1.1 Mission: operation of the national electricity transmission grid As operator of the national transmission grid, TenneT s role is to ensure that the Netherlands has a fully functional transmission grid and to monitor the continuity of the electricity supply. We are committed to ensuring a safe, reliable and efficient electricity supply now and in the future. The electricity transmission infrastructure forms the backbone of the Netherlands electricity supply system (security of supply): most of the nation s major power plants are connected to it, and it is linked to the European grid, thus making an international market possible. By ensuring the existence of a strong and independent transmission grid, TenneT actively contributes to the following: A reliable electricity supply The development of the North-West European electricity market Migration to a sustainable energy supply system 1.2 The need for a long-term vision Het Securing the electricity supply into the further future depends upon making timely modifications to the national high-voltage grid, in order to accommodate the needs of society. TenneT publishes periodic Quality and Capacity lans, which have a horizon of seven years. However, experience indicates that the development and realisation of long-distance high-voltage links and the associated substations often takes eight to ten years, or even longer. By contrast, the construction of, for example, distributed CH units, wind farms and large power plants can generally be achieved in only three to five years. Investments in the transmission grid tend to have a life expectancy of several decades. It is therefore necessary to consider how the Dutch electricity supply system is likely to develop in the long term. Vision2030 has accordingly been developed as a tool for remote-horizon analysis. 6

1.3 The aim of Vision2030 Vision2030 has been conceived as a clear and coherent long-term vision of the development of the electricity transmission grid in the Netherlands. The aim has been to facilitate flexible and lasting solutions by: guiding short term planning and development, thus bringing directional consistency to realisation activities; enabling preparatory planning activities to be initiated in good time ahead of new projects, such as the inclusion of new connections in the Electricity Supply Structure lan (SEV), National Integration lans and other structural visions and plans, so that realisation permits can be obtained more quickly; providing a foundation for the Electricity Supply Structure lan, national government policy and the Quality and Capacity lans; allowing early technology choices to be made, thus avoiding the risk of stagnation during preparatory planning and of debate continuing during the project implementation phase; providing explanations of the need for major grid modifications at an early stage, for the benefit of relevant government ministries (mainly the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Housing, Spatial lanning and the Environment) and the regulator, so that the necessary transmission and connection capacity is available in good time. 1.4 The scope of Vision2030 Vision2030 is intended to be an integrated view of the entire Dutch electricity transmission grid between 380 kv and 110 kv, as it will be in the year 2030. That comprehensive vision is being developed in stages. In 2006, we began by describing the anticipated shape of the national 380-kV transmission grid; this report covers those elements of the grid rated at between 380 and 220 kv. 7

02 General developments Many current and anticipated developments have implications for the electricity supply system. Global demand for fossil fuels The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global demand for the main fossil fuels oil, coal and gas to increase by nearly 50 per cent in the next two decades [IEA]. This will considerably increase emissions of the greenhouse gas CO 2, thus accelerating global warming. ersistently high oil and gas prices are making the use of coal more attractive. In the period up to 2030, the IEA forecasts that demand for coal will grow by 73 per cent, to the point where coal provides nearly a third of the word s energy. Four fifths of the growth of coal consumption over the next two decades will be accounted for by China and India. Development of the North-West European electricity market Users buy electricity where it is cheapest and made available on the most attractive basis, while producers generate electricity where they can do so most economically. This is leading to intensification of the trade in electricity, both on the national market and on the European market. In North-West Europe, electricity is increasingly transmitted between countries by means of overland and undersea interconnectors. One result of this is greater fluctuation in long-distance transmission levels. In this increasingly liberalised market setting, the long-term challenge is therefore to maintain the necessary transmission reliability and supply quality. The international patterns of transmission that may develop in the long term are illustrated in Map 1. roduction locations in the Netherlands The Dutch government has identified the production locations with a capacity of more than 500 MW in the Electricity Supply Structure lan (SEV). Map 2 shows the present high-voltage grid and the production locations referred to in the Second Electricity Supply Structure lan (SEVII). The four locations shown in black are the coastal locations Eemshaven, IJmuiden, Maasvlakte and Borssele. 8

map 1 ossible international transmission patterns in the long term map 2 Arnhem 9

Migration of large-scale electricity generation Since the 1980s, there has been a general tendency in the Netherlands for large-scale inland production units that reach the end of their working lives to be replaced by new production units at coastal locations. The factors driving this trend are the availability of cooling water near the coast, the applicable environmental requirements, the availability of suitable sites and the economics of coal, biofuel delivery. Europe s electricity producers are influenced in their location decisions mainly by the (international) market for their output, the local business climate, the ability to bring in fuel and the availability of subsidies, rather than by national borders. Over a relatively short period of time, this can result in major migrations of production capacity within a region or country. In the European context, the Dutch coast is attractive for the siting of electricity production facilities. Map 3 shows how production capacity may migrate in the long term: A. Replacement of large-scale inland capacity with new capacity at coastal locations B. Displacement of some inland capacity by large-scale offshore wind-powered capacity C. Closure of nuclear power plants in southern Germany and investment in new plants in the Ruhr, leading to capacity migration from southern to central Germany [RWE] D. roducers with plans for new facilities in the Ruhr drawn to the Dutch coast by the attractive investment climate. Economic growth One of the main drivers of rising electricity consumption is economic growth. Other influential factors include changing production processes, computerisation, the introduction of new communication and entertainment technologies, the use of electrical applications to increase comfort and convenience, greater use of air conditioning, heat pumps and electric transport, and the growth of the service and care sectors. oad development in Europe The UCTE expects annual load growth in Europe to average 2 per cent in the period up to 2015, and less than 1.5 per cent thereafter, although there will be significant regional differences [UCTE] (see map 4). Development of load distribution in the Netherlands In the Netherlands, the electrical load is concentrated mainly in the central and western areas. Maps 5 and 6 show load distribution in the Netherlands, as it was in 2005 and as it is expected to be in 2030 (assuming 3 per cent load growth per year). Even if the level of growth is high, the geographical concentration pattern is expected to persist.

B C TenneT Vision2030 map 3 ossible ossible production production capacity capacity migrations migrations B A A D Annual load growth development map 4 (per cent) map 4 Annual load load growth growth development development map 4 (per (per cent) cent) oad distribution in 2005 source: UCTE System source: UCTE Adequacy System Forecast Adequacy Forecast 2007-2007 2020-2020 < 1.5 < 1.5 1.5-2.0 1.5-2.0 2.0-3.0 2.0-3.0 > > 3.0 oad distribution 2030 (assuming 3% annual growth) map 5/6 oad distribution in 2005 in 2005 oad distribution 2030 2030 (assuming (assuming 3% annual 3% growth) annual growth) Average Average load load per per municipality municipality (MW/km (MW/km 2 ) 2 ) 00-0,4-0,4 0,8-1,50,8-1,5 0,4 0,4-0,8-0,8 1,5-5 1,5-5 5-10 10-14 5-10 10-14 11

Sustainability objectives The EU member states have set themselves the objective of servicing 20 per cent of all their energy needs from sustainable sources in 2020. At both the European and national levels, ambitious objectives have also been defined for energy conservation and the reduction of CO 2 emissions. The definition of such objectives has led to many new initiatives, the further development of existing schemes and the application of new technologies. This may result in: downward pressure on electricity consumption due to the use of more efficient electrical equipment and lighting; downward pressure on electricity consumption due to greater awareness on the part of users; generation of electricity closer to the end user (distributed electricity generation), based on the use of industrial CH, domestic micro-ch, roof-mounted V panels, onshore wind turbines and small-scale distributed biomass power plants; generation of electricity further away from the end user, as a result of the construction of large-scale electricity production facilities at coastal locations (large-scale biomass plants, coal-fired plants with CO 2 capture and storage, nuclear power), offshore wind farms and international trade in sustainable electricity produced in other countries; a perverse upward pressure on electricity consumption in certain situations resulting from the integration of efforts to conserve energy and reduce CO 2 emissions, leading to the use of additional control equipment, computerisation (including Internet use), and the use of electric heat pumps and electric transport. Energy storage Scientific research indicates that the less controllable production capacity is, the harder it becomes to maintain a balance between supply and demand [Meeuwsen]. ack of control is an issue mainly when wind-powered capacity accounts for a high proportion of production [Cogen]. In the long term, energy storage is seen as an important aid to efficient supply-demand balancing. Energy storage can also be attractive when the price differential between peak and off-peak power is relatively high. In the Netherlands, three pumped energy storage methods are being considered: The use of compressed air energy storage (CAES) in the Netherlands would involve the compression and storage of air in the salt domes found in the provinces of Drenthe and Groningen. The plans for pumped energy storage (ES) entail pumping water into a so-called valmeer or fall lake off the coast of Walcheren. An underground pumped energy storage (UES) scheme is proposed, based on the use of chambers 1,400 metres beneath the surface in the province of imburg. In the further future, distributed storage may also become an option. So, for example, electricity might be stored overnight in the batteries of electric cars for use during the day, or energy could be stored in local hydrogen tanks, for use in combination with fuel cells. Development of wind-powered capacity in Europe Considerable growth in the use of wind power is forecast in Europe. The EWEA expects there to be 80 GW of capacity by 2010, 180 GW by 2020 and 300 GW by 2030. The latter is likely to be divided equally between onshore and offshore facilities [EWEA]. Map 7 shows the installed onshore and offshore wind-powered capacity forecast for a number of countries in North-West Europe by 2030 [EU Tradewind]. According to the Sustainable Energy Transition latform, the Dutch government s Clean and Economical objective is likely to lead to the installation of 6,000 MW of offshore wind-powered capacity and 4,000 MW of onshore capacity by 2020. Development of wind-powered capacity in the Netherlands By way of illustration, Map 8 shows the locations off the Dutch coast where the Department of ublic Works and Water Management believes offshorewind farms with a total capacity of 6,000 MW could be sited [RWS wind]. 12

map 7 Development of wind-powered capacity in Europe 7 5 19 10 3 26 5 3 6 6 2 4 33 38 Offshore (GW) Onshore (GW) source: EU Tradewind map 8 ossible locations for offshore wind farms Based on RWS data dated 29-10-2007 13

Guidance note The general developments described in chapter 2 are very varied. Their electricity transmission implications are therefore hard to predict. TenneT has accordingly developed four trend scenarios. Each scenario has been systematically modelled in order to build up a picture of how it is liable to influence electricity transmission requirements. The modelling and analysis process is described in the following chapters, as follows: Chapter 3 describes each of the trend scenarios in turn and in three steps: -- First the prevailing characteristics of society are outlined. -- Next, the assumptions we have made in order to model the scenario are set out. In the interest of reproducibility, the assumptions are expressed in numeric terms, which are subsequently used for the network analyses. -- Finally, various extreme circumstances that might arise under some of the scenarios are defined, with a view to localising all potential problems. In Chapter 4, transmission grid configurations for the four scenarios are presented, along with the results of the network analyses. By simulating extreme circumstances, we have been able to indicate where capacity problems are liable to arise in the transmission grid. We then indicate what network configurations could be adopted to prevent such problems. Finally, the four projections are assessed in conjunction in chapter 5. The conclusions drawn from this assessment are translated into a grid concept that indicates the direction in which the 380-kV transmission grid can be gradually developed. 15

03 Scenarios for 2030 Regulated market 3.1 The scenario as a planning tool Numerous developments are in progress, whose effects may be mutually reinforcing or may counteract one another. From this complex of determinants, it is necessary to forecast how the electricity supply landscape and the associated electricity transmission requirements will develop. It is difficult, if not impossible, to cover all possible developments in a single forecast. We have therefore developed scenarios for the next twenty-five years, in order to guide our forward planning. Scenarios are not themselves forecasts, but descriptions of possible alternative courses of development, which may be used to test assumptions. Our long-term scenarios are the basis for our thinking on how the Dutch transmission grid is liable to develop in the coming decades. 3.2 Four scenarios Vision2030 utilises four distinct scenarios for market developments affecting the supply and consumption of electricity. figure 1 Sustainable Transition New Strongholds Focus on renewables Fossil based Green Revolution Money Rules Free market The four scenarios have been developed to reflect variation on the following two dimensions: The environmental dimension, with the development of a sustainable energy economy at one end of the scale, and continued reliance of fossil fuels at the other The market dimension, with a completely free global market at one end of the scale and strict regulation and strong regional focus at the other The annual rates of electricity consumption growth assumed for the four scenarios in the period 2010 to 2030 are as follows: New Strongholds 0 per cent Sustainable Transition 1 per cent Green Revolution 2 per cent Money Rules 3 per cent Along with load development and the level of distributed generation, the size and location of the large-scale production facilities have major implications for the structure and capacity of the 380-kV transmission grid. Since the Second Electricity Supply Structure lan places considerable emphasis on the use of coastal locations for new large-scale production facilities, particular attention is paid to these locations in the scenarios. In the context of each scenario, one of the four coastal production locations is considered in more detail: Green Revolution: Borssele Sustainable Transition: IJmuiden New Strongholds: Maasvlakte Money Rules: Eemshaven In the following subsections, each of the scenarios is described in general terms and by reference to certain quantitative parameters, namely the levels of load, production and interconnector capacity. A more detailed quantification of the Green Revolution scenario is presented, because it is in relation to that scenario that certain options are considered for the first time in this report. The large-scale use of wind power has major implications in terms of transmission requirements. For the Green Revolution and Sustainable Transition scenarios, therefore, two extreme weather variants are introduced: a windy, cloudy day and a windless, sunny summer s day. In the New Strongholds and Money Rules scenarios, the examination of one realistic extreme is considered sufficient. 16

3.3 The Green Revolution Scenario General description The social and political agenda is dominated by free-market principles. Globalisation remains a dynamic trend, with people working towards not only the removal of trade barriers, but also the exchange of knowledge and technology between industrialised and developing countries. Global efforts to tackle the greenhouse effect and the depletion of oil stocks bring about a strong shift towards sustainability. Europe sets itself the target of establishing a sustainable energy economy by 2050, in the context of which CO2 emissions are to be cut to 40 per cent of their 1990 level. There is a major increase in the amount of electricity produced not only from biomass and from on- and offshore wind energy, but also from photovoltaic systems. In Western Europe, large additional amounts of wind-powered capacity are installed, both on shore and off shore. Because wind-powered capacity and photovoltaic capacity are dependent on the unpredictable availability of solar energy and wind energy, storage systems are constructed so that these production modes can be accommodated. Further interconnectors linking the Netherlands to Denmark, Norway and Germany are also installed. Energy conservation is the second pillar supporting development of a sustainable economy. Major advances are made in the process industries, where a great deal of energy (sometimes as much as 80 per cent) is saved. Sophisticated applications of electricity, e.g. in the production of heat, are particularly influential in this context. The shortage of oil leads to the development of cars powered by fuel cells. This opens the way for the emergence of a hydrogen economy and the widespread domestic use of fuel cells in micro-ch units. The necessary hydrogen is produced using energy from various sources, such as sun, wind and biomass, as well as from coal and uranium. As a result, the gas and electricity infrastructures become closely interrelated. Quantification Despite the relatively strong economic growth and increasing electrification, we have assumed that, in this scenario, annual electricity consumption growth will be kept to an average of 2 per cent by the use of new energy-efficient technologies. To support this level of consumption, production capacity will need to increase by 10,000 MW in the period 2010 2030, to 30,000 MW. We have also assumed that electricity generation will be influenced by the automotive industry s development of the fuel cell, leading to application of the technology in micro-ch units. By 2030, the last year of the scenario period, it is assumed that 5,000 MW of micro-ch capacity will be installed. This figure is based on historical data concerning the market penetration of highefficiency boilers (60 per cent penetration of the domestic market over a period of fifteen years). If there are about eight million households and an average boiler capacity of one kilowatt, this equates to 5,000 MW of micro-ch capacity. In this scenario, the use of solar and wind power also increases dramatically. It is assumed that, by 2030, Europe has 300 GW of wind-powered capacity (150 GW offshore and 150 GW onshore). By the same date, the Netherlands is taken to have 6,000 MW of wind-powered capacity in the North Sea and a further 4,000 MW on land. The growth of onshore capacity is brought about mainly by the replacement of old wind turbines with new higher-powered models. We have additionally assumed that, by 2030, there is 4,000 MW of installed photovoltaic capacity. In order to accommodate so much solar and windpowered capacity within the electricity supply system, energy storage systems will be required. For this scenario, we have worked on the basis that, by about 2020, the Netherlands has two 600 MW CAES facilities in operation: one in the salt deposits near Veendam and one in the similar features near Hengelo. By 2030, it is assumed that there is additionally an energy island with a capacity of 2,000 MW off the Walcheren coast. 17

The assumption is also made that existing production capacity has a maximum service life of forty years. It follows that, by 2030, about 11,000 MW of the present thermal production capacity will have been replaced. In the calculations for this scenario, we have worked on the basis that, whenever a coal-fired plant needs replacing, its successor is constructed at a coastal location. By contrast, we assume that gas-fired plants will be replaced by new plants at the same sites. Most of the superseded plants are medium and peak-load units. It is assumed that, in this scenario, the development of cross-border interconnector capacity is governed by market forces, with free trade in surpluses and shortages. As a result, a 1,300 MW HVDC link is established with Denmark and there is a further AC interconnection with Germany (Doetinchem- Niederrhein link, 1,500 MW). Wind energy penetration in both Denmark and Germany is quite high. In addition, another HVDC cable (with a capacity of 1,300 MW) is laid between the Netherlands and Norway, so that the Netherlands can make use of energy from Norway s pumped energy storage plants. Since it is assumed that, in this scenario, an energy island capable of storing 2,000 MW will be built off the Walcheren coast, it was decided that Borssele should be treated as the preferred location for the expansion of large-scale production facilities. Hence, we have assumed that 3,000 MW of new coal/biomass-fired capacity will be built at Borssele (1,000 MW of it to replace old units), along with 1,000 MW of new wind-powered capacity. We have additionally worked on the basis that two new nuclear power plants will be built. Because the availability of solar and wind energy is variable and solar/wind-powered capacity is to be used in combination with energy storage, the calculations for this scenario take account of two extreme situations: A cold winter s day when there is a lot of wind and demand is high, and all the wind-powered and micro-ch capacity is therefore in use and the energy storage facilities are being charged. Because output from wind-powered plants is high, 3,300 MW is exported to Norway and Denmark, and only 3,000 MW has to be imported from Germany. It may be assumed that the UK is experiencing windy weather as well, so the maximum amount of power is exported from the UK to the Netherlands. On the basis of these assumptions, we have taken it that 4,000 MW will be imported via Borssele, as the result of 2,000 MW being drawn by the storage facilities, offset by the input of 1,000 MW of windpowered capacity, 3,000 MW of coal-fired capacity, 2,000 MW of nuclear capacity and 700 MW of gas-fired capacity. A hot and windless summer s day, when air conditioning use causes a peak in demand, all photovoltaic capacity and storage systems are feeding the maximum amount of power into the system and the micro-ch units are not being used. Output from the wind farms is negligible, so importation from Norway, Denmark and Germany is running at the maximum. Furthermore, similar weather conditions in the UK mean that exports to that country are at the highest possible level. In this situation, 6,300 MW is fed into the system at Borssele: 2,000 MW from the storage facility, 3,000 MW from the coal-fired plants, 2,000 MW from the nuclear plants and 500 MW from the gas-fired capacity. 18

3.4 3.4 The Sustainable Transition scenario General description Centraal thema in dit scenario is een toenemend verzet The central characteristic of this scenario is disillusionment with consumerism, individualism and competition. Instead, people are increasingly concerned about the quality of their own immediate surroundings. The society that consequently develops is predicated on sustainability. In this scenario, national and other governments exercise considerable control over the market. The world develops a new energy economy founded on the principles of energy conservation and sustainability. Bio-oil becomes the dominant sustainable source of energy used in the Netherlands, both for electricity generation and transport. In order to limit emissions of carbon dioxide, highefficiency CH units are built to replace the existing (coal-fired) units. Furthermore, many homes are built with solar panels. Meanwhile, additional interconnections are created with Scandinavia, thus enabling the importation of sustainable electricity from the relevant countries. Quantification Despite less intense consumerism and the emphasis on energy conservation, we expect that in this scenario electricity consumption will increase by 1 per cent a year, due to greater electrification. In the period 2010 to 2030, this leads to the load increasing by 4,000 MW. In our calculations for this scenario, particular attention has been focused on the IJmuiden/Velsen production location, since it is assumed not only that it will accommodate a great deal of production capacity, but also that it will serve as the landing point for much of the electricity generated offshore from wind energy. We have assumed that, to meet the increased demand for electricity, four 500-MW CH plants will be built at Maasvlakte, Moerdijk, Borssele and Eemshaven, plus two biomass units at Velsen/ IJmuiden. The choice of sites for the CH units is based on the fact that land has been reserved at the locations in question for the construction of chemicals plants and/or NG terminals, which consume a great deal of heat. In this scenario, the total amount of supply-led sustainable capacity is expected to grow to 11,000 MW. Of this, 7,000 MW will be wind-powered capacity (half onshore, half offshore) and 4,000 MW will be photovoltaic. We have assumed that 2,500 MW of the offshore wind-powered capacity will use Velsen/IJmuiden as its landing point. In line with the greater emphasis on environmental protection envisaged under this scenario, we have worked on the basis that power plants will be replaced after forty years in service, and that therefore about 11,000 MW of capacity will be decommissioned within the study horizon. About 4,000 MW of this capacity will be superseded by biomass-fired plants at coastal locations (roughly half at IJmuiden/Velsen). The remaining 7,000 MW will be replaced by medium-load gas-fired units on the original sites. To accommodate supply fluctuations, as associated with windpowered capacity in particular, two 600-MW CAES facilities will be created, at Hengelo and Veendam. Again, calculations have been made for two extreme situations: A windy day with peak loads, when all the windpowered production facilities are feeding electricity into the system and the CAES facilities are being charged. The high level of output from the wind farms means that energy can be exported to the UK. However, the greater price parity between Dutch-produced and Germanproduced electricity means that very little power is imported from Germany. In view of the emphasis on sustainability under this scenario, it is assumed that the interconnectors with Scandinavia are used to bring electricity from renewable sources to the Netherlands. A windless sunny summer s day, when the storage facilities feed power into the grid, the solar facilities are operating at maximum capacity and electricity is imported from neighbouring countries. 19

3.5 The New Strongholds scenario General description In this scenario, wealth inequalities between the western world and other regions increase. The traditional ties between the old EU-member states and North America are strengthened, leading to the formation of a powerful cultural and trading block. Developments in the ICT lead to a further shift towards a service-based economy in the western world. Geopolitical tensions threaten the supply of oil and gas from the Middle East and Russia. As a result, the importance of western countries local fossil fuel reserves increases considerably. In this scenario, the Netherlands becomes an electricity exporter because of the availability of coastal production sites where it is easy to deliver coal and cooling water is readily available, and because of its good gas infrastructure. With dwindling coal stocks and its nuclear power plants decommissioned, Germany becomes a net importer of electricity. Although economic conditions in this scenario are good, the emphasis on energy conservation means that there is no growth in electricity consumption. Energy savings are achieved mainly by the process industries. Renewable energy sources are developed only in situations where they can contribute to self-sufficiency. Quantification We have assumed that, under this scenario, overall electricity consumption does not increase in the period 2010 to 2030. Although domestic electricity consumption does grow (because the number of homes in the country continues to rise), this is offset by savings in the process industries. Developments in electricity production are characterised by the Netherlands becoming an electricity exporter on account of its favourable location. Germany is foreseen as the main consumer of Dutch power. It is accordingly assumed that, to meet the export demand, 5,000 MW of new coal-fired and nuclear capacity will be built at coastal locations in the period up to 2030. On the assumption that the second Maasvlakte site will have space for the construction of coal-fired power plants, the Maasvlakte is treated as the production focal point in this scenario. We have worked on the basis that power plants built to replace existing plants at the end of their lives will be on sites previously occupied by the chemicals industry, in particular the Maasvlakte. In this scenario, we have taken the service life of a power plant to be fifty years. This implies the replacement of more than 5,000 MW in the period up to 2030. It is assumed that old plants are replaced by industrial CH units. ess use is made of renewable energy sources in this scenario; in the period up to 2030, only 1,000 MW of offshore wind-powered capacity is added, all of it feeding the system at the Maasvlakte. Installed onshore wind-powered capacity remains at about 2,000 MW, all of which is already in place by about 2010. It is assumed that no further interconnector capacity is created following completion of the Doetinchem- Niederrhein link. Realisation of the latter interconnector means that, at peak times, about 5.600 MW is exported to Belgium and Germany. In our analysis of this scenario, we have made calculations for only one extreme situation: a very windy day, when the amount of power being fed into the system at the Maasvlakte is at its greatest. 20

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3.6 The Money Rules scenario General description This scenario is characterised by continued globalisation and liberalisation, and the dominance of free-market principles. Social and environmental considerations are afforded a relatively low priority. Economic growth in China, India and Indonesia leads to a considerable rise in the demand for energy. Declining oil and gas stocks result in much greater reliance on coal. In addition, the use of nuclear power increases substantially in order to satisfy the growing demand for electricity. Oil and gas shortages also mean that alternative sources are utilised to a greater extent. In this scenario, the Netherlands becomes a major electricity importer. Quantification We have assumed that, in this scenario, electricity consumption grows by 3 per cent a year in the period 2010 to 2030. The main drivers of this growth are expansion of the service sector and increasing use of new applications of electricity in the home. Consumption growth adds about 16,000 MW to the network load over the twentyyear period. To meet the growing demand for electricity, an additional 10,000 MW of conventional thermal production capacity is created and a further 6,000 MW is imported. It is assumed that the new production capacity is realised mainly by the construction of coal-fired and nuclear plants with a combined capacity of 8,200 MW at the coastal locations identified in the second Electricity Supply Structure lan. In addition, we have worked on the basis that another 3,000 MW of gas-fired capacity will be created in the period up to 2030, at various sites around the Netherlands. The extra imports are made possible by the creation of further interconnector capacity. Another interconnector is realised between the Netherlands and the UK, with its Dutch landing point at IJmuiden/Velsen, and the interconnector between the Netherlands and Norway is upgraded to a twin cable link, with its Dutch landing point at Eemshaven. In addition to these undersea interconnections, two new AC links between the Netherlands and Germany are commissioned. A figure of forty years has been used as the maximum life expectancy of a power plant, implying that about 11,000 MW of capacity will require replacement. It is assumed that half will be replaced by new capacity at the same location and half by coal-fired or nuclear capacity at coastal locations. Our calculations also assume that by 2030 there is more than 5,000 MW of installed wind-powered capacity: more than 2,000 MW off shore and 3,000 MW on shore. Given that the scenario involves a second cable from Norway being landed at Eemshaven, we have assumed that a lot of the new production capacity will be sited there. 22

map 9 rovisional routes, as identified in the draft of SEVIII Feda (Norway) DC > UKNordel DC > UK Niederrhein (Germany) 23

04 Network analysis 4.1 Basic assumptions The network model and the associated network calculations and analysis are based on the following assumptions: A strong and independent national transmission grid operating in the 380-kV to 110-kV range forms the backbone of the Dutch electricity supply system. The transmission grid connects all large power plants, the European grid and the load centres to each other. It also ensures the reliability of electricity transmissions and the quality of electricity supplies. The 380-kV grid transmits power from large-scale production locations, as well as imported/exported power, between the regional substations. The 220-kV, 150-kV and 110-kV grids transmit power between the points of connection to the 380-kV grid, the load points and the distributed production points. These transmission grids are excluded from interregional transmission as far as possible. In view of the social implications of supply failures, the 380-kV and 220-kV grids have been developed according to the network criterion single failure during maintenance. The 380-kV grid consists mainly of overhead lines, for reasons of capacity and cost-effectiveness. The starting point for the network model is the high-voltage grid for 2012, as described in the Quality and Capacity lan 2006-2012. The latter plan assumes the realisation of the Randstad380 project. The basic input data for the network model reflect the most recent information published by the UCTE and regarding developments in neighbouring countries. It is assumed that the transmission capacity of existing connections has been upgraded to 2.750 MVA per circuit. The new links incorporated into the model are those included in the draft list made available to the Ministry of Economic Affairs in 2006 for the new Electricity Supply Structure lan. See also the provisional routes from the draft of SEVIII, as illustrated in map 9. 4.2 Basic input data for the network model In this subsection, the quantitative information from the scenario descriptions is converted into basic input data for the network model. The basic data are also used for the network calculations and analyses. In each scenario, one location is identified as a primary concentration point for production. Table 1 gives the total input to the grid from the four coastal locations under each of the situations defined in the scenarios. A figure is also given for the output of the primary production location associated with each scenario. In 2006, the 380-kV grid input from the four coastal production locations was as follows: Eemshaven, 2.4 GW; IJmuiden, 0 GW; Maasvlakte, 1.1 GW and Borssele, 0.9 GW. This approach ensures the explicit modelling of situations that reflect the maximum impact that the capacity and siting of the production facilities may have on the configuration and capacity required for the 380-kV transmission grid. The approach was chosen because it allows us to consider, for example, whether the routes described in the draft of SEVIII would be appropriate for the grid developments implied by the four scenarios. Table 2 specifies the production capacity at each of the coastal locations in each scenario, with the primary location highlighted. Table 3 shows the amount of power transmitted via the DC interconnectors at the various coastal locations and the total level of AC importation, as associated with each of the scenarios. 24

table 1 Grid input (production plus power from offshore) from the coastal locations collectively and from the primary location Scenario oad Total from 4 coastal roduction at growth Situation locations (GW) primary location (GW) Green Revolution 2% Windy, cloudy day 14.5 Borssele = 6.7 Windless, sunny summer s day 8.5 Borssele = 5.5 Sustainable Transition 1% Windy, cloudy winter s day 12.3 IJmuiden = 6.5 Windless, sunny summer s day 8.8 IJmuiden = 4.0 New Strongholds 0% Windy day 11.5 Maasvlakte = 8.6 Money Rules 3% Windy day 15.0 Eemshaven = 5.0 table 2 Green Revolution Sustainable Transition New Strongholds Money Rules Conv. Wind Total Conv. Wind Total Conv. Wind Total Conv. Wind Total Borssele 5.7 1.0 6.7 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.0 1.5 3.7 1.0 4.7 Maasvlakte 2.9 2.5 5.4 3.0 1.0 4.0 7.6 1.0 8.6 4.6 0.5 5.1 IJmuiden 0.0 2.5 2.5 4.0 2.5 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 Eemshaven 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.0 1.4 5.0 0.0 5.0 Total 8.6 6.0 14.6 8.8 3.5 12.3 10.5 1.0 11.5 14.3 2.0 16.3 (capacity in GW) table 3 International power transmissions Green Revolution Sustainable Transition New Strongholds Money Rules DC Maasvlakte 1.3-1.3 1.3 1.3 DC IJmuiden 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 DC Eemshaven -3.3 3.3 0.7 2.0 AC import 2.9 0.0-5.7 7.1 (A positive figure represents important. a negative represents exportation. in GW) 25

In the grid calculation model, photovoltaic, micro- CH and onshore wind-powered capacity are matched with the load demand; the first two forms of capacity are assumed to be proportionally distributed across the Netherlands, while the regional distribution of the latter is assumed to reflect the objectives set out in the Governance Agreement for the National Development of Wind ower (BOW). The BOW is based on the collective wind power promotion policies of the participating governmental bodies (five ministries, the twelve provinces and the Association of Netherlands Municipalities) [BOW]. In addition to the possibility of distributed storage, the following three large-scale pumped energy storage options are being considered in the Netherlands: The use of compressed air energy storage (CAES) in the Netherlands would involve the compression and storage of air in the salt domes found in Veendam and Hengelo, in the provinces of Drenthe and Groningen, respectively. The plans for pumped energy storage (ES) entail pumping water into a so-called valmeer or fall lake off the coast of Walcheren. An underground pumped energy storage (UES) scheme is proposed, based on the use of chambers 1,400 metres beneath the surface in the province of imburg. The following large-scale pumped energy storage has been taken into account in two scenarios: A recent study into the added value of large-scale electricity storage in the Netherlands [Storage] concluded that assuming the existence of a functionally efficient West-European market, increased interconnection capacity, greater flexibility within the national production portfolio and load growth it should be possible to integrate between 4 and 10 GW of wind-powered production capacity into the Netherlands generating system without additional measures. Nevertheless, market players may conclude that large-scale facilities for the storage of power from fossil fuel and/or from renewable sources are a viable option. It is therefore important to be aware of the implications of large-scale storage for configuration of the transmission grid and for the production input possibilities. In the following subsection, we present the results of the 380-kV transmission grid calculations for the four scenarios. arge transmissions in the 380-kV grid can induce transmissions in the subordinate grids. However, such effects have not been considered in this phase of the grid study; they will be addressed at a later date. table 4 arge-scale pumped energy storage Green Revolution Sustainable Transition CAES Veendam, 600 MW 0.6 0.6 CAES Hengelo, 600 MW 0.6 0.6 ES Walcheren, 2,000 MW 2 - OES imburg, 1,400 MW - - (capacity in GW) 26

4.3 Results of the network analysis The architecture of the transmission grid determines its functionality and resilience. The resilience of the grid has been tested by assessing its stability under normal conditions (n-0), in the event of a single failure (n-1) and in the event of a single failure during maintenance (n-2). This approach represents a simplification of the criteria laid down in the present Grid Code, which are less strict, but similar in basic intent. Map 9 (subsection 4.1) shows the various alternatives, as defined in the draft of SEV III, from which a route has to be chosen for the transmission of power from the Borssele, Maasvlakte, IJmuiden and Eemshaven coastal locations. An initial analysis indicated that the direct connection of the various coastal locations was not desirable, since it would lead to uneven power distribution across the various links and to mutual interference by transmissions from the various production locations. To increase the grid s capacity to transmit power from Borssele and Eemshaven, we have assumed the realisation of additional connections between Borssele and Geertruidenberg and between Eemshaven and Ens. The IJmuiden and Maasvlakte production locations are to be connected to one another by the new Randstad380 lines and to the main 380-kV ring by a total of six subordinate 380-kV circuits. The transmission capacity serving the Utrecht region is to be increased by a 380-kV link between Diemen and Dodewaard. We have performed network calculations for the four scenarios, on the basis of the existing transmission grid, upgraded as indicated above. Appendix 1 contains a number of figures illustrating the overloads liable to occur in the 380-kV connections under each of the four scenarios, assuming present-day (2007) values for the transmission capacities of the connections in question. In our grid concept, therefore, the coastal locations are linked directly to a reinforced 380-kV ring structure formed by the 380-kV lines between Zwolle, Hengelo, Doetinchem, Dodewaard, Boxmeer, Maasbracht, Eindhoven, Geertruidenberg, Krimpen, Diemen, elystad, Ens and Zwolle. The results of the network analysis for each scenario are presented below, indicating the main capacity problems that are liable to arise and the most appropriate grid concept for the scenario. 27

Green Revolution In this scenario, development of the grid is geared mainly to the transmission of large amounts of power from Borssele to the national 380-kV grid. The results of the load flow calculations for a windy winter s day are presented in figure 2. The figure above shows that, in this scenario, power is transmitted from the west to the northeast resulting in the export of power via Eemshaven. Capacity problems are anticipated on the following connections: Westerlee-Wateringen: overload due to uneven distribution of transmissions from the Maasvlakte under certain n-2 situations Beverwijk-Oostzaan-Diemen: overload due to combined power input at the Maasvlakte and IJmuiden production locations Diemen-elystad-Ens: overloading of the 380-kV ring under single-failure conditions, due to high west to northeast transmission increased by input of power from production capacity at elystad Borssele-Zandvliet: overload due to high power input from Borssele/Maasvlakte These problems can be resolved by, respectively: maintenance coordination; imposing a ceiling on power input at certain production locations (limiting total production at Maasvlakte to 5.0 GW), or capacity control; further upgrading of the ring between Diemen and Ens; reduction of power input or control based on the phase shifters in Belgium. Data on the level of production at each location that does not give rise to problems for the transmission grid are presented in table 5. The results of the load flow calculations for the second extreme situation, a windless summer s day, are presented in figure 3. table 5 Green Revolution extreem 1 Conv. Wind Total Borssele 5.7 1.0 6.7 Maasvlakte 2.5 1) 2.5 5.0 IJmuiden 0.0 2.5 2.5 Eemshaven 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 8.2 6.0 14.2 (values in GW) 1) Ceiling applied for Maasvlakte 28

Note regarding figures 2, 3, 5, 7 and 9 The figures show the power inputs to the 380-kV grid corresponding to the quantitative scenario assumptions. The net value of the 380-kV power input is the product of input from wind-powered production, conventional production (coal, gas, nuclear, biomass), DC imports, DC exports and power exchanges with the subordinate high-voltage grids (220 kv, 150 kv and 110 kv). Coloured ovals represent overloads. The three numbers given in each oval specify the calculated load, expressed as the utilised percentage of the thermal transmission capacity of the connection under n-0, n-1 and n-2 conditions, respectively. figure 2 Transmission pattern under the Green Revolution scenario (extreme 2: windless sunny day, emphasis on Borssele) 3,3 The Netherlands 3,4 Net 380-kV power input Eemshaven AC exchanges 2,0 IJmuiden 60 / 105 / 126 70 / 128 / 135 2,7 DC exchanges Bottleneck 1,3 5,5 48 / 93 /116 Maasvlakte 4,0 Borssele 73 / 91 / 125 0,2 29

In this variant, the transmissions are from the southwest and northeast to the centre of the country and are liable to overload the following connections: Geertruidenberg-Krimpen: overloading of the 380-kV ring under single-failure conditions, due to high southwest transmission Borssele-Geertruidenberg: overload due to high power input at Borssele Maasbracht-Rommerskirchen: overload due to high import level and uneven distribution of transmissions amongst the Dutch-German interconnectors These overloads can be resolved as follows: Further upgrading of the ring between Geertruidenberg and Krimpen imitation of power input (limiting total production at Borssele to 4.4 GW) Reduction of power input at Borssele control based on the phase shifters in Belgium Increasing capacity to transport power from Borssele by realising additional circuits Introduction of the Doetinchem-Niederrhein connection will eliminate overloading of the interconnectors with Germany Data on the level of production at each location that does not give rise to problems for the transmission grid are presented in table 6. Figure 4 shows the connections that are required for power transmission in the Green Revolution scenario. The Doetinchem-Niederrhein interconnection has been added. table 6 Green Revolution extreme 2 Conv. Wind Total Borssele 4.4 1) 0.0 4.4 Maasvlakte 2.7 0.0 2.7 IJmuiden 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eemshaven 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 7.1 0.0 7.1 (values in GW) 1) Ceiling applied (assuming four circuits to take power from Borssele) 30

figure 3 Transmission pattern under the Green Revolution scenario (extreme 2: windless sunny day, emphasis on Borssele) 3,3 The Netherlands 2,7 Net 380-kV power input Eemshaven AC exchanges DC exchanges 0,7 IJmuiden 4,1 Bottleneck 1,3 0,1 Maasvlakte 6,3 Borssele 57 / 76 / 110 70 / 91 / 108 83 / 114 / 176 1,3 figure 4 Green Revolution W W S W W S S (optioneel) oad roduction W S Wind (offshore) Storage AC DC AC ring AC international exchange DC international exchange 31

Sustainable Transition In the context of this scenario, it is assumed that grid development will have to accommodate large power inputs from the IJmuiden/Velsen location. The extreme situations modelled for this scenario are again a windy winter s day and a windless, sunny summer s day. As figure 5 shows, the high power input from production capacity at IJmuiden is liable to overload the Beverwijk-Oostzaan-Diemen connection. The existing Beverwijk-Oostzaan-Diemen connection and the planned Beverwijk-Bleiswijk connection have a capacity of 1,900 MVA per circuit. Overloading can be prevented by limiting the total production capacity at the relevant coastal location (i.e. limiting capacity at IJmuiden to 3.5 GW). The maximum total level of production at IJmuiden that does not give rise to problems for the transmission grid after upgrading of the 380-kV ring is 7.3 GW; see table 7. A windless day would not cause any grid problems under this scenario. Appendix 2 contains two figures illustrating the overloads that are liable to occur in the existing connections, if the total production capacity at IJmuiden is as projected under the scenario (6.5 GW) and if it is at the maximum possible level (7.3 GW), assuming that the Diemen-Dodewaard connection is not realised. Alternatively, a new connection could be realised, consisting of two 1,900-MVA circuits, leading from Beverwijk, through the province of North Holland, to the 380-kV ring between Diemen and elystad. Such a connection would also be required if load and/or production developments in North Holland necessitate direct connection to the 380-kV grid. The connection is illustrated in figure 6. table 7 Sustainable Transition extreme 1 Two connections from Beverwijk Three connections from Beverwijk Conv. Wind Total Conv. Wind Total Borssele 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.9 Maasvlakte 3.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 IJmuiden 1.0 1) 2.5 3.5 4.0 3.3 7.3 Eemshaven 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.9 Total 5.8 3.5 9.3 8.8 4.3 13.1 (values in GW) 1) Ceiling applied for IJmuiden 32

figure 5 Transmission pattern under the Sustainable Transition scenario (extreme 1: windy, cloudy winter s day, emphasis on IJmuiden) 3,3 The Netherlands 3,8 Net 380-kV power input Eemshaven AC exchanges 5,8 58 / 101 / 120 IJmuiden 0,2 DC exchanges Bottleneck 1,3 1,5 Maasvlakte 0,3 Borssele 1,3 figure 6 Sustainable Transition W S W oad roduction W S Wind (offshore) Storage AC DC AC ring AC international exchange DC international exchange 33

New Strongholds The main feature of the transmission pattern associated with this scenario is the exportation to Belgium and Germany of electricity produced at new coal-fired and nuclear power plants on the Maasvlakte. The scenario is characterised by a low level of interest in sustainability, so relatively little wind-powered capacity is installed. We therefore felt it unnecessary to perform separate calculations for windless and windy days. The load flow calculations indicate that, in this scenario, overloading of the following connections is liable to occur in the following connections: Maasvlakte-Craijestein-Krimpen, due to high power input at the Maasvlakte location Westerlee-Wateringen, due to high power input at the Maasvlakte and uneven distribution of transmissions from the Maasvlakte under certain n-2 situations Both problems can be resolved by: reduction of the maximum power input at the Maasvlakte; realisation of a new connection. The realisation of a new connection between the Maasvlakte and the 380-kV circuit is illustrated in figure 8. Under the grid concept illustrated above, electricity produced at the Maasvlakte will be transmitted via three outbound high-voltage connections, each consisting of two 2,750-MVA circuits. Table 8 shows the theoretical ceiling on the total production capacity at the Maasvlakte in the New Strongholds scenario (11 GW), as determined by the capacity of the three double circuit connections. In this situation, AC exports to Belgium and Germany will total 8 GW. The necessary Doetinchem-Niederrhein and Boxmeer- Germany interconnections have been added to the grid concept. Appendix 3 contains two maps illustrating the overloads that are liable to occur in the existing connections, if the total production capacity at the Maasvlakte is as projected under the scenario (8.6 GW) and if it is at the maximum possible level (11 GW), assuming that the Diemen-Dodewaard connection is not realised. If the total production capacity at the Maasvlakte is limited to 5 GW, the two connections leading from the location are sufficient and the relatively small exports (2 GW) to Belgium and Germany via the international AC connections do not give rise to transmission capacity problems. table 8 New Strongholds Two connections from Maasvlakte Three connections from Maasvlakte Conv. Wind Total Conv. Wind Total Borssele 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 1.5 Maasvlakte 4.0 1) 1.0 5.0 10.0 1.0 11.0 IJmuiden 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eemshaven 1.4 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.0 1.4 Total 6.9 1.0 7.9 12.9 1.0 13.9 (values in GW) 1) Ceiling applied for Maasvlakte 34

figure 7 Transmission pattern under the New Strongholds scenario (extreme 1: windy day, emphasis on Maasvlakte) 2,0 0,7 The Netherlands Net 380-kV power input Eemshaven AC exchanges DC exchanges 0,5 IJmuiden 3,6 Bottleneck 1,3 8,8 63 / 114 / 142 Maasvlakte 1,0 Borssele 1,6 figure 8 New Strongholds oad roduction W S Wind (offshore) Storage AC DC AC ring AC international exchange DC international exchange 35

Money Rules In this scenario, electricity consumption rises considerably and a great deal of new conventional production capacity is built, with a concentration at Eemshaven. The modelling of this scenario does not distinguish between windless and windy days, since the wind situation has almost no bearing on the load flow calculations. The load flow calculation results for a windy day (see figure 9) indicate that the Zwolle-Ens connection and the Eemshaven-Bergum connection are liable to be overloaded. The capacity problem on the Zwolle-Ens connection can be resolved by the realisation of a new connection or by limiting the power input. Overloading of the Eemshaven-Bergum connection can be prevented by limiting the production capacity installed at Eemshaven. Table 9 specifies the ceiling on the total production capacity at Eemshaven (4.4 GW) in this situation. An alternative way of preventing the Eemshaven- Bergum connection becoming overloaded is to upgrade the 220-kV connection between Vierverlaten and Hessenweg. Data on the level of production at each location that does not give rise to problems for the transmission grid are presented in table 10. The figures assume that the total production capacity at Eemshaven is limited to 7.3 GW and that the transmission capacity of the 220-kV connection between Vierverlaten and Hessenweg is increased to 0.95 MVA per circuit. table 9 table 10 Money Rules Money Rules Conv. Wind Total Borssele 3.7 1.0 4.7 Maasvlakte 4.6 0.5 5.1 IJmuiden 1.0 0.5 1.5 Eemshaven 4.4 1) 0.0 4.4 Total 13.7 2.0 15.7 (values in GW) 1) Ceiling applied for Eemshaven Conv. Wind Total Borssele 3.7 1.0 4.7 Maasvlakte 4.6 0.5 5.1 IJmuiden 1.0 0.5 1.5 Eemshaven 7.3 1) 0.0 7.3 Total 16.6 2.0 18.6 (values in GW) 1) Ceiling applied for Eemshaven, assuming upgrading of the 220-kV grid 36

figure 9 Transmission pattern under the Money Rules scenario (extreme 1: high wind, emphasis on Eemshaven) 2,0 The Netherlands 6,0 65 / 108 / 122 Net 380-kV power input Eemshaven AC exchanges DC exchanges 1,3 1,6 IJmuiden 5,6 Bottleneck 1,3 4,0 Maasvlakte 3,0 Borssele 1,6 figure 10 Money Rules W oad roduction W S Wind (offshore) Storage AC DC AC ring AC international exchange DC international exchange 37

05 Vision2030 grid concept On the basis of the four scenarios, we have worked out a number of possible transmission grid configurations and calculated the associated transmission capacities. The results have been tested for resilience. The network analyses of the four scenarios presented in the previous chapter each suggested a different transmission grid configuration. In figure 11, the four structures are superimposed. This composite configuration is the overall grid concept for Vision2030. The philosophy behind the grid concept is as follows: One strong 380-kV ring in the proximity of the load in the central and western parts of the Netherlands Direct connections from the production locations to load centres or the 380-kV ring The key considerations underpinning the grid concept are as follows: One strong 380-kV ring provides a resilient and reliable transmission link to the load. The power generated at the production locations should be transmitted as directly as possible to the load centres or the 380-kV ring. In the interests of cost-effectiveness and resilience, it is desirable that the transmission capacity of the circuits leading from the coastal production locations should be equal and as high as possible. The distribution of production across the four coastal locations in proportion to available transmission capacity minimises the bottlenecks in the 380-kV transmission grid. 38

figure 11 Vision2030 grid concept W W S W S W S oad roduction W S Wind (offshore) Storage AC DC AC ring AC international exchange DC international exchange 39

The grid concept may be seen as indicative of the direction in which the 380-kV transmission grid is developing when investment decisions need to be made. The inclusion of a new or upgraded connection in the grid concept does not imply any definite intention to realise or upgrade the connection in question. Furthermore, the timing of any modification or extension to the grid depends on market developments. In map 10, the Vision2030 grid concept is visualised in cartographic form. For illustrative purposes, the locations of the 6,000 MW of wind farms off the Dutch coast are also suggested [RWS wind]. map 10 Feda (Norway) Diele (Germany) United Kingdom / Scandinavia Gronau (Germany) Arnhem Isle of Grain (United Kingdom) Niederrhein (Germany) Germany Zandvliet (Belgium) Meerhout (Belgium) Gramme (Belgium) Rommerskirchen (Germany) Siersdorf (Germany) 380 kv connection 380 kv ring 220 kv connection 40

41

06 Grid development: the medium-term position This chapter indicates how plans for the mediumterm development of the 380-kV grid tie in with the Vision2030 grid concept. In 2007, the four coastal production locations were each connected to the primary 380-kV ring by a double circuit 380-kV high-voltage line. Security of supply to the load is provided partly by the subordinate 220-kV, 150-kV and 110-kV grids. This is illustrated in map 11: the 380-kV ring (the red and yellow line) is formed by the 380-kV lines connecting Zwolle, Hengelo, Doetinchem, Dodewaard, Boxmeer, Maasbracht, Eindhoven, Geertruidenberg, Krimpen, Diemen, elystad, Ens and Zwolle. By 2012, the Randstad380 project will have been completed by realisation of the new 380-kV Maasvlakte-Westerlee-Wateringen-Bleiswijk connection and the Bleiswijk-Beverwijk connection. Two undersea interconnectors will be operational: one between Eemshaven and Norway (NorNed) and one between the Maasvlakte and the UK (BritNed). The completion of Randstad380 will mean that there are several 380-kV connections between the IJmuiden and Maasvlakte production locations and the 380-kV ring, as illustrated in map 12. In addition, the 220-kV connection between Vierverlaten and Hessenweg will have been upgraded. 42

map 11 The grid in 2007 Feda (Norway) Diele (Germany) Gronau (Germany) Arnhem Isle of Grain (United Kingdom) rway) Zandvliet (Belgium) Meerhout (Belgium) Gramme (Belgium) Rommerskirchen (Germany) Siersdorf (Germany) 380 kv connection 380 kv ring 380 kv connection (single circuit) 220 kv connection 220 kv connection (single Feda circuit) (Norway) Diele (Germany) map 12 The grid in 2012 Diele (Germany) Gronau (Germany) Gronau (Germany) Arnhem Isle of Grain (United Kingdom) merskirchen any) dorf any) 380 kv connection 380 kv ring 380 kv connection (single circuit) 220 kv connection 220 kv connection (single circuit) Zandvliet (Belgium) Meerhout (Belgium) Gramme (Belgium) Rommerskirchen (Germany) Siersdorf (Germany) 380 kv con 380 kv ring 220 kv con 43

In the medium term, TenneT will begin a number of new projects designed to reinforce the 380-kV grid. Work is already underway on extension of the national high-voltage grid in the north of the country (from Eemshaven to the 380-kV ring) and in the province of Zeeland (from Borssele to the 380-kV ring). reparations have also begun for the realisation of a fourth interconnector between the Netherlands and Germany (from Doetinchem to Niederrhein): TenneT asked the minister of Economic Affairs to initiate the planning procedures in 2007. Map 13 shows these three new projects added to the grid as it will be following completion of the Randstad380 project and the NorNed and BritNed interconnectors. The previously mentioned 220-kV connection between Vierverlaten and Hessenweg will also have been upgraded.. Depending on how the electricity market develops, TenneT will carry out utility-and-necessity studies into the further development of the national transmission grid, in support of the quality and capacity planning process. These studies will look at issues such as: reinforcement (extension and upgrading) of the 380-kV ring; the addition of further interconnectors; reinforcement of the production location Maasvlakte with a 380-kV connection of Maasvlakte to the 380-kV ring between Geertruidenberg and Krimpen; reinforcement of the IJmuiden production location and the Noord-Holland area by realisation of a 380-kV connection from Beverwijk, through Noord-Holland (Oterleek) to the primary 380-kV ring between Diemen and elystad; depending on load growth and the downscaling of production in the Utrecht region, reinforcement of the transmission grid in that region by realisation of a 380-kV connection between Diemen and Dodewaard. map 13 New projects Feda (Norway) Diele (Germany) Gronau (Germany) Arnhem Isle of Grain (United Kingdom) Niederrhein (Germany) Zandvliet (Belgium) Meerhout (Belgium) Gramme (Belgium) Rommerskirchen (Germany) Siersdorf (Germany) 380 kv connection 380 kv ring 380 kv connection (new project) 220 kv connection 220 kv connection (new project) 44

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07 Review and follow-up We have described four long-term scenarios for the development of the Dutch electricity supply system in the period up to 2030. On the basis of these scenarios, a number of possible transmission grid configurations and associated transmission capacities have been worked out and tested for their resilience. On the basis of our analyses, we have developed a grid concept, which is indicative of the direction of future investments in the high-voltage transmission grid. Its principal features are one strong 380-kV ring in the vicinity of the load in the central and western parts of the Netherlands and short connections between the production locations and the load centres or the 380-kV ring. The Dutch Energy Research Centre (ECN) has at our request carried out an independent study into the influence that innovative energy technologies are likely to have on the electricity infrastructure of the future. In the context of that study, ECN has assessed the quantitative estimates that we had made for the four scenarios, allowing for possible technological developments [Scheepers]. The differences between the figures calculated by ECN for the Sustainable Transition, New Strongholds and Money Rules scenarios were sufficiently small that revision of our grid concept was not felt to be necessary. However, ECN concluded that innovative technology could have a substantial impact on the calculated parameters in the Green Revolution scenario. On the basis of the available potentials and anticipated market developments, ECN estimates that, by 2030, installed renewable energy production capacity could be 30 per cent higher under this scenario than TenneT s calculations suggest. ECN also envisages more distributed production capacity in this scenario. The differences between the TenneT and ECN projections do not have implications for the basic structure of the transmission grid but, if the growth in distributed generation does prove to be as great as suggested by ECN, it could influence the tempo and phasing of development, insofar as the need for upgrades and extensions would be delayed. In this context, Jeremy Rifkin s long-term vision of the hydrogen economy in 2050 is of interest [Rifkin]. The keywords of this vision are hydrogen economy, sustainable energy, free (web-based) market and intelligent grids. It therefore has much in common with our Green Revolution scenario for 2030, which is characterised by an emphasis on sustainability and free-market principles. Rifkin s vision for 2050 foresees considerably more distributed production than we envisage for 2030 under the Green Revolution scenario. The figures suggested by Rifkin are, however, consistent with the ECN s estimate that the Green Revolution scenario would imply a 20 per cent decline in centralised production capacity. 46

Nevertheless, analysis of the ECN s calculations and Rifkin s vision do not suggest that the Vision2030 grid concept requires revision. The network analyses reflect the most recent information published by the UCTE and regarding developments in neighbouring countries. As the Dutch TSO, TenneT participates in the entalateral Energy Forum. We are also active members of the Regional Forum Central West (a subgroup of the UCTE WG Coordinated lanning). The Regional Forum Central West is responsible for producing the Regional Transmission lan (RT). The draft of the first RT has recently been presented to the European Commission. This first RT is in effect a composite of the individual plans of the TSOs from the Benelux, Germany and France, which will in the future be developed into joint scenarios and problem analyses. The RT has a medium-term horizon of five to ten years. By contrast, Vision2030 looks forward more than twenty years. In 2008, TenneT intends to work with the TSOs in neighbouring countries to undertake a series of bilateral long-term projections. The Vision2030 grid concept is resilient (its basic structure is adequate under all the scenarios) and flexible (the ring principle allows for adaptation in line both with load development and the level of distributed generation and with developments in the level of power input at the coastal locations, from local production, offshore wind farms and overland and undersea interconnectors). The strength of Vision2030 is the simplicity of the basic grid concept. Vision2030 is indicative of the direction in which the transmission grid may develop. roposed grid expansion or modification projects can be tested against Vision2030 to ascertain how appropriate they are likely to be in the longer term. Nevertheless, the utility of and need for such proposals will still need to be demonstrated individually. The results of Vision2030 provide a good starting point for sensitivity analyses. The findings of such what-if analyses can inform policy decisions. Social cost-benefit analyses may be made, for example, to ascertain whether the cost to society (the capital invested in the network) is justified by the benefits (long-term security of supply, prompt availability of suitable connection capacity, smoother transition to a sustainable energy economy, new production facilities, etc). As a follow-up to Vision2030, we are considering more detailed research into the social costs and benefits of the investments required under the various scenarios. In this report, we have presented a vision of the national 380-kV and 220-kV electricity transmission grid in 2030. With effect from 1 January 2008, management of the 150-kV and 110-kV grids has also been transferred to TenneT. In 2008-2009 we will accordingly develop a related vision covering these grids and their relationship with the 380-kV and 220-kV transmission grids. Thereafter, it is our intention to update our long-term vision every four years. 47

References BOW Bestuursovereenkomst andelijke ontwikkeling Windenergie, jaarverslag 2006. Cogen Integratie van grootschalig windvermogen in het Nederlandse elektriciteitssysteem, consequenties voor de balanshandhaving en oplossingsrichtingen, Cogen symposium, november 2007. EWEA EWEA, Wind Directions - Focus on 2030, November/December 2006. EU Tradewind EU Tradewind Work ackage 2: Wind ower Scenarios, W2.1: Wind ower Capacity Data Collection, 27 April 2007 doc.nr. 11914/GR/01c. IEA International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007, www.iea.org. K&C TenneT Kwaliteits- en Capaciteitsplan 2006-2012. Meeuwsen J.J. Meeuwsen, Electricity Networks of the Future, various Roads to a Sustainable Energy System, Eindhoven Technical University 2007. Opslag Ministerie van Economische Zaken en latform Duurzame Elektriciteitsvoorziening, onderzoek naar de toegevoegde waarde van grootschalige elektriciteitsopslag in Nederland, december 2007. Rifkin Jeremy Rifkin, De waterstofeconomie, schone en duurzame energie voor iedereen, ISBN 9056375830. RWE RWE Transportnetz Strom GmbH, TenneT TSO B.V., Joint study for a new connection between Germany and the Netherlands, November 2006. RWS wind ocaties 6 MW offshore windturbineparken, publicatie Rijkswaterstaat, 29. oktober 2007, www.noordzeeloket.nl/activiteiten/windenergie. Scheepers M.J.J. Scheepers e.a., invloed van innovatieve technologie op de toekomstige elektriciteitsinfrastructuur, november 2007. SEVII Structuurschema Elektriciteitsvoorziening II, 1994. UCTE UCTE System Adequacy Forecast 2007-2020, www.ucte.org. 48

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Appendices Appendix 1 Maps showing overloading associated with the four scenarios In the discussion of the network analysis results presented in subsection 4.3, the main capacity problems were identified. In this appendix, we provide a summary of the overload data for the 380-kV transmission grid connections, as associated with the various grid analyses. The network model is based on the high-voltage grid as it was in 2007, assuming the corresponding values for the transmission capacities of the connections in question. The model also assumes that the Randstad380 project has been realised. The IJmuiden and Maasvlakte production locations are assumed to have been connected to one another and to the main 380-kV ring by a total of six subordinate 380-kV circuits. To increase the grid s capacity to transmit power from Borssele and Eemshaven, we have assumed the realisation of additional connections between Borssele and Geertruidenberg and between Eemshaven and Ens (capacity: 2,750 MVA per circuit). The transmission capacity serving the Utrecht region is to be increased by a 380-kV link between Diemen and Dodewaard (capacity: 2,750 MVA per circuit). If scenario calculations are carried out for the grid as described, using the basic data from Vision2030, a picture of the overloaded connections emerges, which is illustrated in the diagrams below. The basic data on the production capacity at each coastal production location under each scenario are presented in table 11. The overloaded 380-kV connections are represented by the bold lines on maps 14 to 17. table 11 Green Revolution Sustainable Transition New Strongholds Money Rules Conv. Wind Total Conv. Wind Total Conv. Wind Total Conv. Wind Total Borssele 5.7 1.0 6.7 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.0 1.5 3.7 1.0 4.7 Maasvlakte 2.9 2.5 5.4 3.0 1.0 4.0 7.6 1.0 8.6 4.6 0.5 5.1 IJmuiden 0.0 2.5 2.5 4.0 2.5 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 Eemshaven 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.0 1.4 5.0 0.0 5.0 Total 8.6 6.0 14.6 8.8 3.5 12.3 10.5 1.0 11.5 14.3 2.0 16.3 (values in GW) 50

map 14 map 15 Green Revolution (6.7 GW at Borssele) Sustainable Transition (6.5 GW at IJmuiden) Arnhem Arnhem map 16 map 17 New Strongholds (8.6 GW at Maasvlakte) Money Rules (5 GW at Eemshaven) Arnhem Arnhem 51

Appendix 2 Overload maps for the Sustainable Transition scenario, assuming Diemen- Dodewaard is not realised In the discussion of the network analysis results presented in subsection 4.3, the main capacity problems were identified. In this appendix, we provide a summary of the overload data for the 380-kV transmission grid connections, as associated with the Sustainable Transition scenario, assuming 2007 capacity values for the existing connections. The calculations have been made on the basis of the network configuration described in appendix 1, but assuming that the 380-kV connection between Diemen and Dodewaard has not been realised. Calculations have been performed for the situation described, assuming first that the total production capacity at IJmuiden is 6.5 GW and then that it is 7.3 GW. The overload implications for the 380-kV connections are illustrated on maps 18 and 19 below; the overloaded connections are represented by the bold lines. map 18 map 19 Sustainable Transition (6.5 GW at IJmuiden) Sustainable Transition (7.3 GW at IJmuiden) Assuming Diemen-Dodewaard is not realised Assuming Diemen-Dodewaard is not realised Arnhem Arnhem 52

Appendix 3 Overload maps for the New Strongholds scenario, assuming Diemen-Dodewaard is not realised In the discussion of the network analysis results presented in subsection 4.3, the main capacity problems were identified. In this appendix, we provide a summary of the overload data for the 380-kV transmission grid connections, as associated with the New Strongholds scenario, assuming 2007 capacity values for the existing connections. The calculations have been made on the basis of the network configuration described in appendix 1, but assuming that the 380-kV connection between Diemen and Dodewaard has not been realised. Calculations have been performed for the situation described, assuming first that the total production capacity at the Maasvlakte is 8.6 GW and then that it is 11 GW. The overload implications for the 380-kV connections are illustrated on maps 20 and 21 below; the overloaded connections are represented by the bold lines. map 20 map 21 New Strongholds (8.6 GW at Maasvlakte) New Strongholds (11 GW at Maasvlakte) Assuming Diemen-Dodewaard is not realised Assuming Diemen-Dodewaard is not realised Arnhem Arnhem 53

The Dutch transmission grid (per 1 juli 2007) Feda (Norway) Eemshaven ouwsmeer Bergum Vierverlaten Zeyerveen Weiwerd Meeden Diele (Germany) Oudehaske elystad Ens Hessenweg Zwolle Beverwijk Oostzaan Diemen Hengelo Gronau (Germany) Doetinchem Isle of Grain (United Kingdom) Maasvlakte Bleiswijk Krimpen Dodewaard Crayestein Geertruidenberg Boxmeer Wesel (Germany) Eindhoven Borssele 380 kv Zandvliet (Belgium) Meerhout (Belgium) Gramme (Belgium) Maasbracht Rommerskirchen (Germany) Siersdorf (Germany) 220 kv 150 kv 110 kv 54

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TenneT is Europe s first cross-border grid operator for electricity. With approximately 20,000 kilometres of (extra) high voltage lines and 35 million end users in the Netherlands and Germany we rank among the top five grid operators in Europe. Our focus is to develop a Northwest European energy market and to integrate renewable energy. Taking power further TenneT TSO B.V. Utrechtseweg 310, Arnhem.O. Box 718, 6800 AS Arnhem The Netherlands Telephone +31 (0)26 373 17 17 Fax +31 (0)26 373 13 59 E-mail servicecentrum@tennet.eu Twitter @tennettso www.tennet.eu TenneT No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the explicit permission of TenneT. No rights may be derived from the contents of this document. Arnhem, May 2011 CE5003O.UK1106