Cloud Computing and the Coming IT Cambrian Explosion Irving Wladawsky-Berger
Accelerating Advances in Information Technologies Source: Kurzweil 1999 Moravec 1998 2
Accelerating Advances in Information Technologies Driving Costs Steadily Downward Source: Kurzweil 1999 Moravec 1998 3
The Internet: Industrial Knowledge Economy 4
Internet Evolution - 1996... Information Networking Communications World Wide Web e-business 5
e-business = Web + IT Industrial Strength Database Scalability Security Transactions Systems Mgmt Availability IT Web Universal Connectivity Standards TCP/IP HTML SSL GUIs HTTP Browsers Java Web Servers 6
Internet Evolution 2002... Shared, Distributed Virtual Systems Networking Communications Information Grid Computing IT On Demand 7
Virtualization Physical Internet computing power storage applications files data 8
9 Virtualization: Grid Computing Accessing and Sharing Resources over the Internet, or Private Intranets, based on Open Protocols
Internet Evolution 2008... Massive Scalability Billions of People,Trillions of Devices Shared, Distributed Virtual Systems Information Networking Communications Cloud Computing Virtual Access to Services 10
Cloud Metaphor! Massive Scalability 10X - 100X over the next decade 25% - 55% CGR for selected workloads Business and Consumer Services Real-time Information Web N.0 People, Devices, Sensors 11
12 Cambrian Explosions Business and Consumer Services
13 Cambrian Explosions Real-time Information
14 Cambrian Explosions Devices, Sensors, etc
Cambrian Explosions Continuing Web evolution Level of Interaction Web 2.0 Share and Collaborate Visual, Immersive Web Experience, Participate and Co-Create Early Web Access and Find 15 Time
16 Cambrian Explosions Cloud Computing and Enterprise Data Centers
New Enterprise Data Centers = Clouds + IT Industrial Strength, Universal Connectivity Content Browsers Java Standards Transactions Systems Mgmt Web Servers Availability Security IT Cloud Massive Scalability, Rich Diversity Business Services Devices Real-time Information Sensors Autonomic Mgmt Computing Capacity Consumer Services Storage & Content 17
IT infrastructure growth Spending (US$B) $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 Power and cooling costs Server mgmt and admin costs New server spending Installed Base (M Units) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 18 Source: IDC, Virtualization 2.0: The Next Phase in Customer Adoption, Doc #204904, Dec 2006
IT energy crisis " During the next 5 years, most datacenters will spend as much on energy as they do on hardware Data center watts/sq. ft. 300 200 100 Low High 0 2000 or earlier Current By 2011 Doesn t include energy needed to remove heat can increase overall power requirements by 80% to 120% 19 Source: Gartner, U.S. Data Centers: The Calm Before the Storm, ID #G00151687, September 25, 2007
20 The IT Complexity Crisis Classic Complex Data Center
Evolution of manufacturing model Toyota Production System " Supply chain " Just-in-time production " Continuous improvement 21
22 Data Center Ensemble Approach To IT Simplification
Ensembles Mainframe service SAP application service Hybrid service Storage backup, archive service Database service WebSphere service x86 service File system service Virtual Client service DMZ appliance service Unix service Consolidation service 23
Virtualized, Federated Ensembles SOA/Grid Protocols Mainframe service SAP application service Hybrid service Storage backup, archive service Database service WebSphere service x86 service File system service Virtual Client service DMZ appliance service Unix service Consolidation service 24
Critical Requirements Flexible, Adaptable Architectural Frameworks Virtualization Integration Efficiency Management 25
A Stream of Disruptive Innovations Globalization Flat World Services Sciences Web 2.0 Mobile Devices Offshoring Ubiquitous Sensors Petaflop supercomputers Virtual Worlds Commoditization Real-time Information Emerging Economies Energy & Environment 26
Cloud Computing and the Coming IT Cambrian Explosion Irving Wladawsky-Berger