Th ynamc of ntrnatonal tra nvocng Lna S. Golbrg Fral Rrv Ban of Nw Yor an NBER Cérc Tll Gnva Grauat Inttut for Intrnatonal an Dvlopmnt Stu an CEPR Jun 4 009 Prlmnary an ncomplt frt raft. Pla o not ct or trbut wthout prmon of th author. Abtract Intrnatonal tra tranacton can b nvoc n th proucr currncy n th tnaton currncy or n om thr vhcl currncy. Th papr how how an xportr nvocng choc affct by hr mart har nutry tructur th rol of mport nput th hgng of macroconomc hoc an xchang rat rgm. W ar a hortcomng n th xtng ltratur by nvocng choc a th outcom of a barganng gam btwn xportng proucr an thr cutomr abroa. Ung a nw atat of 45 mllon nvual Canaan mport tranacton w xamn th rol of th varou nvocng trmnant ocumntng th mportanc of ach of th factor n th nvocng con of pcfc nutry xportr tnguhng btwn U.S. xportr an tho from othr countr. JEL Clafcaton: F3 F4 Kywor: Invocng currncy vhcl currncy pa-through ntrnatonal tra. Intrnatonal Rarch Functon Fral Rrv Ban of Nw Yor 33 Lbrty Strt Nw Yor NY 0045. Lna Golbrg 70-836 Lna.Golbrg@ny.frb.org. Cérc Tll +4 908 598 Crc.Tll@grauatnttut.ch. Cérc Tll gratfully acnowlg th upport an hoptalty of th Hong Kong Inttut for Montary Rarch whr part of th papr wr wrttn. Lna Golbrg gratfully acnowlg th thoughtful rarch upport of Wllam Ryan. W than Clancy Barrtt an Crag Kuntz of th Canaan cutom amntraton for mang th tal ata avalabl an anwrng our quton. Th vw prnt ar tho of th author an o not ncarly rprnt th vw of th Fral Rrv Ban of Nw Yor or th Fral Rrv Sytm.
. Introucton Th currncy n whch xportr t th prc of thr goo th o-call nvocng currncy ha long bn rcognz a a cntral apct of ntrnatonal conomc. Spcfcally th nvocng choc trmn who among th xportr or th cutomr xpo to xchang rat r an whthr th allocaton of man btwn goo prouc n ffrnt countr wtch followng xchang rat fluctuaton. Svral thortcal contrbuton hav tr th rol of macroconomc varabl uch a xchang rat volatlty an nutry-tructur apct uch a th prc-ntvty of man an th tructur of comptton for th nvocng currncy lcton con whch can nclu th tnaton mart currncy th xportr currncy or om vhcl currncy that nthr th xportr nor th cutomr. 3 Th papr ma thortcal a wll a mprcal contrbuton to our unrtanng of nvoc currncy lcton arng two lmtaton that affct th xtng ltratur. Frt th uual mol aum that nvocng c olly by th xportr. Th only rol of th cutomr to prov th xportr wth ownwar-lopng man n th xportr prc whch h ta nto account n h nvocng con. Frbrg an Wlanr 008 pont that th tup countrfactual: ung a urvy of Swh xportr thy ocumnt that th nvocng currncy t through a ngotaton btwn th xportr an th conumr. Th con lmtaton that th mprcal ltratur rl on aggrgat ata potntally hng contratng pattrn acro xportr that mght b apparnt at a mor aggrgat lvl n th ata. 4 For ntanc frm n an nutry whr man vry ntv to prc hav an ncntv to choo an nvocng currncy that th am a thr compttor whr frm who prouct ar mor ffrntat ar l ubjct to th coalcng ffct Golbrg an Tll 008. Th nvocng choc coul thn b vry ffrnt btwn ffrnt frm n a gvn country. Th xtnc of uch htrognty n nvocng ata woul mprov our ablty to tt ffrnt thor rlatv to what obrvabl n th aggrgat ata. W ar th frt lmtaton by vlopng a mol whr th currncy nvocng lcton t through a barganng gam btwn th xportr an th cutomr. W conr a Nah barganng ttng whr th nvocng plt th urplu of th al from th xportr to th A non-xhautv lt of rcnt contrbuton nclu Bacchtta an van Wncoop 005 Dvrux Engl an Storgaar 004 Frbrg 998 Novy 006 Golbrg an Tll 008. 3 Golbrg an Tll 008. 4 Gopnath Itho an Rgobon forthcomng.
cutomr wth th plt rflctng thr ngotatng powr. Two man rult mrg. Frt a unlatral nvocng choc by th xportr a conr n th ltratur lly to ntal a u of th tnaton currncy that uboptmally low from th pont of vw of th conumr. Intutvly th xportr ha an ncntv to u t own currncy to lmt th mpact of xchang rat movmnt on h unt rvnu whra th cutomr gt a hghr utlty from havng th prc t n hr own currncy. W how that th qulbrum nvocng tlt towar th cutomr currncy vn though th xportr ract to h hghr xpour to xchang rat movmnt by ttng a hghr prc compar to th ca whr h choo nvocng unlatrally. Scon our mol mpl that th u of th cutomr currncy mor pronounc for larg al. W aum that th xportr al wth two cutomr wth on havng a hghr man. In th barganng wth a gvn cutomr th altrnatv opton of th xportr to only ll to th othr cutomr. Falng to rach an agrmnt wth a larg cutomr mpl that th xportr rvnu rlatvly low an th margnal utlty of th rvnu rlatvly hgh. Th xportr altrnatv opton thu wor whn barganng wth a larg cutomr an th bargan outcom tlt towar th cutomr prfrnc for ung hr own currncy. Th con lmtaton of th ltratur ar by ung a nw hghly aggrgat atat for Canaan mport. Our ata covr ach Canaan mport tranacton btwn Fbruary 00 an Fbruary 009 wth ach tranacton contanng ata on th aggrgat nutry th nvocng currncy an th country of orgn of th mport. W bgn by ocumntng th pattrn of nvocng. Whl th U.S. ollar xtnvly u othr currnc tll account from 7.9 prcnt of mport by count 68.4 prcnt by valu from countr othr than th Unt Stat. Invocng pattrn ar rmarably tay throughout our ampl vn though om hft occur uch a a cra u of th Brth poun. W alo how that th Canaan ollar u mor xtnvly for larg hpmnt than mallr on n ln wth th mplcaton from th mol. W nxt turn to a formal conomtrc xrc an rgr th nvocng choc on varabl that rflct nutry-tructur.. whthr man prc-ntv th xchang rat rgm of th country of orgn th har of mport from that country nto total mport for th partcular nutry th z of hpmnt xchang rat volatlty an ummy varabl that captur th ablty of varou currnc to hg hoc to man an margnal cot. 3
Throughout our analy w tnguh btwn ovrall mport an mport from non-u.s. countr wth th tncton afforng an opportunty to focu on th lattr a U.S. xportr ovrwhlmngly u th U.S. ollar. Our analy how four man pont. Frt xportr n nutr whr man mor prc-ntv tn to u th Canaan ollar rlatvly mor than xportr n othr nutr. Scon xportr n countr wth a pg to th ollar tn to u thr currncy whra xportr n countr wth a pg to th uro u that currncy. Thr xportr n a country whch ha a omnant har of mport n a partcular nutry u thr own currncy a thy fac only a lmt comptton from xportr from othr countr. Fourth th Canaan ollar play a largr rol for larg hpmnt. Hgng an coalcng motv a wll a cutomr barganng powr rult ar upport n th mprcal analy. Th rt of th papr tructur a follow. Scton prnt th mpact of tructural paramtr uch a th xtnt of omtc comptton or th prc-latcty of man n a tanar nvocng mol. It am a analyzng nvocng har both at th lvl of frm an at th lvl of th ntr nutry. Th trmnaton of nvocng n a novl mol wth barganng btwn xportr an cutomr analyz n Scton 3. Scton 4 prnt our nw nvocng ata a wll a th maur u n th conomtrc analy. Th conomtrc rult ar analyz n Scton 5 an Scton 6 conclu.. Invocng qulbrum wth multpl currnc Th cton prnt a mpl mol llutratng how varou forc affct th nvocng choc of nvual frm a wll a th nvocng har of aggrgat al to a tnaton mart. Th tup ba on th on of Golbrg an Tll 008. For brvty w focu on th man lmnt of th approach wth mor tal xpoton prov n th appnx... A mpl mol of nvocng Conr an xportr locat n country whch prouc a bran z for al n th tnaton country. Th xportr pot a prc n a currncy bfor nowng th ralzaton of varou hoc affctng th hom or tnaton mart conom. Th xport goo ar prouc ung a tchnology wth crang rturn to cal: Y z H z 0 4
whr Y z th output of z an H z an nput wth a unt cot W. Th frm fac th followng man for t prouct: -λ C -λ Y z P z / P C S P z / S P whr C th total man for bran of th rlvant ctor P th prc nx xpr n currncy acro all bran ol n th tnaton country an > th latcty of ubttuton btwn th varou bran. P z th prc n currncy t by th xportr. S th xchang rat fn n trm of unt of currncy pr unt of currncy o that an ncra corrpon to a prcaton of currncy. 5 Contonal on th nvocng currncy th xportr choo t prc P to maxmz th xpct valu of t proft ubjct to an. Th valu of xpct proft at th optmal prc can b xpr a a quaratc approxmaton aroun th allocaton whr thr ar no hoc an prc ar ntcal n all pobl nvoc currnc. Dnotng log vaton aroun th allocaton by lowr ca lttr th xpct pr unt proft ar: 3 λ z E[ λ λ λ q E[ q ] ] E[ Eq q w ] c c z whr q p th rlatv prc of bran z n th tnaton country xpr v-a-v comptng bran. Th xportr choo th nvocng currncy bat to maxmz 3. W not th wght of ach currncy n th bat by. Our aumpton that nvocng ta th form of a bat nta of complt nvocng n on currncy facltat th analy. Th wght ar potv an um to on acro all currnc. W not th har nvoc n currncy acro th ovrall al of all llr n th mart by. Th ntvty of th prc nx n th tnaton country p to xchang rat movmnt rflct th aggrgat har. Th 5 Golbrg an Tll alo conr th prnc of tranacton cot n forgn xchang mart that can ffr acro currncy par. W abtract from th apct for brvty. 5
rlatv prc of a partcular bran rflct th xtnt to whch th nvocng pattrn of th pcfc xportr ffr from th avrag on n that nutry:. q For mplcty w conr a ca whr xportr n two countr an ll to a tnaton mart whr local frm ar alo prnt. Th nvocng choc by an xportr n country : 4 m 5 m 6 whr m captur th xognou rvr of margnal cot namly movmnt n factor prc an fluctuaton n tnaton mart aggrgat man: m w / c. Th trm m an m rflct th co-movmnt btwn m an th xchang rat an wth a potv valu of m ncatng that margnal cot tn to b hgh whn currncy wa rlatv to currncy. 6 Th wght of th corrlaton n th xportr nvoc currncy lcton pn on nutry charactrtc that ar rflct n th coffcnt /[ ] 0. Th trm larg whn bran ar clo ubttut an crang rturn to cal ar pronounc. 4-6 how that proucr conr lctng nvocng currnc that offr goo hgng proprt by apprcatng whn margnal cot ar hgh or currnc that ar u by th frm compttor. Th lattr apct rflct a coalcng motv through whch frm want to lmt th vaton btwn thr own prc an that of thr compttor a motv that mor rlvant whn ffrnt bran ar trongr ubttut an whn fluctuaton n man affct margnal cot.. larg. Smlar rlaton a 4-6 hol for th nvocng choc of an xportr n country. 6 Spcfcally th ar th coffcnt of a rgron of m on th two xchang rat: m m V V whr : V E E E E E E m m E E E E E m m 6
Th har of varou currnc n ovrall mart al rflct both th nvocng con of varou frm an th mart har of ffrnt countr. W not th mart har of country by an aum that frm locat n th tnaton country fully nvoc n thr own currncy. Th har of ovrall al nvoc n th thr currnc ar thn: 7 ; W not th har of ovrall mport nvoc n currncy by. Th har ar wrttn a: 8 / ; / / Th gnral oluton of th mol rv by combnng 4-6 an 7. Th tal rult ar prnt n th appnx an cu n gratr tal n Golbrg an Tll 008. In orr to motvat th mprcal applcaton of Scton 4 blow w focu on om major apct of th oluton by ang th ntvty of nvocng to th varou paramtr... Mart har Th ntvty of nvocng to th mart har of xportng countr an olv a: A hghr mart har of country hft nvocng from currncy towar th xportr currnc. Th hft ar ntcal acro all xportr: an. Th magntu of th hft rflct th ntal nvocng har of xportr n country. Spcfcally th u of currncy cln mor whn that currncy rprnt a mall har of th ntal nvocng bat. Smlarly th u of currncy ncra mor whn t alray rprnt a larg har of nvocng bat of xportr n country. Th ffct ar alo largr whn th coalcng motv trong an mport account for a larg har of th mart. Th mpact n trm of th har of th varou currnc n total al 7 mlar: 7
Turnng to th mpact on th currnc har to mport 8 w obtan: Two ffct ar at wor. Frt th chang n th ar tranmtt to th. Scon a hghr mart har of country alo mpl that country account for a hghr har of mport. If th ntal nvocng pattrn ffr btwn country an th mor promnnt rol of country tlt th nvocng pattrn of mport towar t ntal nvocng pattrn. To um up w gt th followng mplcaton: Implcaton : A hghr mart har for an xportng country ruc th u of th tnaton currncy by all xportr an ncra th u of all xportr currnc. Th magntu of th hft rflct th ntal u of th varou currnc by th country wth th ncra mart har. Implcaton : Th ffct n mplcaton ar largr n ctor wth a trong coalcng motv an a larg har of mport. Implcaton 3: In aton to th ffct n mplcaton th nvocng of ovrall mport tlt towar currnc whch play a largr rol n th nvocng by th country wth a largr mart har compar to othr xportng countr. For ntanc th mplcaton man that whn U.S. goo account for a larg har of a country mart othr xportr llng to that mart tlt thr nvocng towar th U.S. ollar. Th pcally th ca n ctor wth a trong coalcng motv. 7 7 Th apct cu by Bacchtta an van Wncoop 005. 8
.3. Import nput Th nvocng har 4-6 rflct th xognou hgng conraton n th trm. W focu on th mpact on 4-6 wth th mpact on th har of th varou currnc n ovrall al 7 an mport 8 mply rflctng th mart har of th varou countr. To gan furthr nght w ma atonal aumpton. Frt man n th tnaton mart rvn by a local factor uch a montary hoc not by x : xportr margnal cot rflct local factor an xchang rat: ~ x ; w ~ x w c x. Scon whr: ~ ~ x x x ; x x x Th paramtr rflct th xtnt to whch an xportng country tablz t xchang rat và-v th tnaton country. x~ thn th omtc factor n country nclung th xchang rat rgm. If th cntral ban o not targt th xchang rat 0 th factor purly rvn by omtc conraton. If th cntral ban howvr tablz th xchang rat rgm v-à-v th tnaton country 0 country montary tanc an wag ar affct by th xchang rat. Our pcfcaton allow for a rct mpact of th xchang rat on th margnal cot to b rct rflctng th u of mport nput nvoc n forgn currnc. For ntanc 0 mpl that country mport om nput from country that ar nvoc n currncy. 0 mlarly mpl that t mport nput from th tnaton country nvoc n th tnaton currncy. Thr w aum that blatral xchang rat rflct th ffrnc btwn blatral factor: ~ ~ x x x x x ~ x x x x ~ x x x x Fnally w aum that th factor x x an x ar uncorrlat an th varanc ar: E x E x an E x E x. Unr th aumpton a hghr ntvty of margnal cot n country to th xchang rat btwn currnc an 0 hft nvocng away from currncy an towar 9
currncy wth no mpact on th nvocng n th tnaton currncy. Smlarly a hghr ntvty of margnal cot n country to th xchang rat btwn currnc an 0 hft nvocng away from currncy an towar currncy wth no mpact on th nvocng n currncy : D 0 0 ; 0 D whr: D /. Th followng mplcaton um th rult: Implcaton 4: Whn cot n an xportng country ar mor xpo to th xchang rat wth anothr country th nvocng of all xportr hft away from th currncy of country towar th currncy of country. An llutraton woul b th ca of an Aan country who xport to Canaa u mport nput nvoc n U.S. ollar. Th ra that country u of th U.S. ollar a an nvocng currncy whch n turn ra th ncntv of othr xportr to u th ollar..4. Macroconomc volatlty For mplcty w abtract from th rct lnag btwn margnal cot an xchang rat for th rt of th analy 0. W a th mpact of th volatlty of th varou factor an by aumng that polcy o not lmt xchang rat volatlty for mplcty 0. A hghr volatlty of an xportng country factor hft th nvocng of all xportr away from t currncy an towar th tnaton country an othr xportr currnc: D D whr: D D[ / ]. A hghr volatlty of th tnaton country factor holng th volatlty of th othr factor contant hft th nvocng of all 0
xportr away from th tnaton currncy towar xportr currnc pcally towar th currncy of th country wth th lat volatl factor: D E x E x Th rol of macroconomc volatlty whch wa tr by Dvrux Engl an Storgaar 004 ummarz n th followng mplcaton: Implcaton 5: Mor volatl macroconomc factor n a country nvocng hft th nvocng away from t currncy towar th othr currnc pcally towar th currnc of countr wth mor tabl funamntal. For ntanc mrgng mart conom whr funamntal ar mor volatl than n nutralz countr can b xpct to ma a rlatvly mall u of thr own currnc n nvocng..5. Exchang rat tablzaton Th xtnt to whch polcy mar n an xportng country mooth th movmnt of thr xchang rat agant th tnaton mart captur by th coffcnt. For mplcty w t th xportr factor to b qually volatl:. Unr th aumpton whn a country put a hghr mpha on tablzng t xchang rat t hft nvocng by all xportr away from th tnaton currncy towar t own currncy. Thr no mpact on th nvocng har of othr xportr currnc. Th ffct ar largr whn th xchang rat alray tabl: / 0 D Our rult ummarz n th followng mplcaton: Implcaton 6: A ructon of xchang rat volatlty by an xportng country v-à-v th tnaton ra th har of t currncy n nvocng at th xpn of th tnaton currncy. 0
3. A barganng vw of nvocng Whl th mol n th prvou cton allow u to conr th mpact of varou factor on nvocng t rman lmt n on mportant mnon. Spcfcally conumr play no rol n th nvocng con. Thy mply prov frm wth a man along whch frm choo an allocaton an nvocng t ntrly by th frm. Whl uch an aumpton tanar n th ltratur t not contnt wth rcnt vnc that nvocng t through a barganng btwn frm an cutomr a hown by Frbrg an Wlanr 008. Th cton xtn our ttng to allow for nvocng to b t n a barganng btwn conumr an frm. Whl mor mprcally appalng th altrnatv tup ubtantally ra th gr of complxty of th analy. W thrfor focu on th problm of an nvual xportr an abtract from th aggrgat nvocng har at th nutry lvl cu n th prvou cton. 3.. Conumr urplu Conr an xportr n country who ll a bran z to cutomr n country. Cutomr ar nx by an thy ffr by z. Spcfcally th man from cutomr : 9 C z S P z / S P C W allow for th nvocng currncy to ffr acro cutomr. Spcfcally th nvocng -λ har n th tnaton currncy an th vhcl currncy v for cutomr ar not by an v. Smlarly th prt componnt of th prc P z can ffr acro cutomr. Cutomr only ffr through th z of thr conumpton n th tay tat not by Th utlty that conumr gt from t conumpton of bran z ta a tanar CRRA form: 0 C z E[ C z / C ] ; Th ncluon of C. C n 0 nur that th z of th conumr o not affct t utlty. Our pcfcaton of a utlty fn at th lvl of ach bran nta of ovr a complt bat of bran mplf th analy by huttng own pllovr acro th man for ffrnt bran.
3 Th utlty 0 obtan only f th xportr an th cutomr rach an agrmnt n thr barganng ovr nvocng. Shoul thy fal to o o th altrnatv utlty for th cutomr quvalnt to a conumpton qual to a fracton of C. Th urplu that th cutomr gan from a uccful barganng thn: C z C E SC ] / [ 3.. Proucr urplu Th xportr u a tchnology wth crang rturn to cal: 0 ; z H C z C For mplcty w aum that thr ar ffrnt proucton ln for ffrnt cutomr o that th man by a cutomr o not affct th margnal cot of proucng for othr cutomr. Th tchnology alo cal by th lvl of tay tat man whch nur that tay tat margnal cot an prc ar qualz acro cutomr. Th proft that th xportr gt from llng to cutomr ar not by z j. W aum that th xportr utlty of t proft to all cutomr ta a CRRA form: 3 ; J j j J z E z Q whr J th t of cutomr to whom th xportr ll. If th frm fal to rach an agrmnt wth cutomr h wll only ll to th othr cutomr n th t J. 8 Th urplu of th xportr from a uccful barganng thn: 4 j j j j j z E z z E SF Th mpact of proft on th xportr margnal utlty an mportant ffrnc from uual mol n whch th count factor not nflunc by th prcng an nvocng con. In partcular t mpl that th xportr margnal utlty of ncom hghr whn ngotatng wth a largr cutomr mang hr mor wllng to accommoat th cutomr prfrnc. 8 In qulbrum th frm ll to all cutomr. W can thrfor valuat th frm out opton n t barganng wth a pcfc cutomr a th utlty from al to all othr cutomr.
4 Th proft 3 by both th prcng z P an th nvocng an v. W conr that th ar t n two tag. Frt th nvocng t through a barganng btwn th xportr an th conumr. Scon th xportr t th prc tang th nvocng an th man 9 a gvn. Th frt tp forwar-loong an ta th contonal prcng choc of th con tp nto account. Our aumpton that nvocng t through a barganng proc but prc ar not can appar o a on coul t both to b chon through a barganng. Our molng choc motvat by a focu on th nvocng con. In aton our tup nt th mol of th prvou cton a a pcfc ca. In partcular th prc n th tay tat th am an rflct a marup ovr margnal cot. Th woul not b th ca f th prc wa bargan ovr. 3.3. Prcng Th xportr t z P to maxmz 3. Th la to a tanar xpron whr th xpct count margnal rvnu marup ovr th xpct count margnal cot. Th prc thn affct by th x-pot co-movmnt btwn th varou varabl of th mol a fatur an to a r prmum. An atonal complcaton ovr our arlr mol that th count factor u n ttng th prc tlf a functon of th proft. Aumng that fluctuaton n conumpton ar th am for all conumr c c th prt prc can b wrttn a a quaratc xpanon aroun th tay tat: 5 mc mr E c E mr E mc z p whr mr rflct th rvr of th margnal rturn mc rflct th rvr of margnal cot an c th count factor that nvrly rlatv to notng th lnar componnt of proft : v v v v w c p c c p w mc c p mr ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [
5 5 how that altrng th nvocng har mpact th xpour of th xportr to fluctuaton n xchang rat an margnal cot an la hr to altr th lvl at whch h t th prc. Th utlty of th xportr 3 can alo b xpr a a quaratc approxmaton aroun th tay at. 3.4. Invocng In th frt tp of th oluton th xportr an th cutomr t th nvocng har to maxmz th followng maur of jont urplu that combn an 4: 6 SC SF N For brvty w focu on th optmzaton wth rpct to th nvocng har of th tnaton currncy. Th analy for th har of th vhcl currncy v follow mlar tp. W can how th rvatv of 6 wth rpct to th nvocng har ta th followng form: 7 SC D G N whr a potv coffcnt an D an ncrang functon of th z of cutomr : c c c H c H D ; Th functon H potv an ncra wth th z of cutomr maur by th tay tat rato c of hr conumpton to th ovrall conumpton. Th trm G n 7 rflct th rvat of th xportr urplu 4 wth rpct to th nvocng har. Both th trm an th rvatv of th cutomr urplu ar crang lnar functon of th har of th cutomr currncy n th nvocng bat. Th optmal nvocng har obtan by ttng 7 an th corrponng conton wth rpct to th har of th vhcl currncy to zro. Th nvocng har ar thn: 8 c w c w 9 v c v w v c w whr th trm ar rgron coffcnt fn n th am way a n 4-5 an th ar coffcnt.
If th xportr hol th ntr barganng powr = h t th nvocng har unlatrally. D 0 n 7 an th nvocng har 8-9 ar ntcal to th mol of th prvou cton. Unr th allocaton th rvatv of th cutomr urplu wth rpct to th nvocng har of th cutomr currncy : 0 SC unlat [ E Ec E v v ] Ew Th cutomr urplu affct by two factor. Frt t ruc whn th xportr t a hghr prc 5 an apct captur by th trm n 0. Incrang th nvocng har of th tnaton currncy boot th xportr xpour to xchang rat volatlty nucng hr to charg a hgh prc. In aton a lowr man c 0 ruc th xportr proft an ncra hr count factor. If th xportr currncy apprcat whn man low Ec 0 rang th nvocng har of th tnaton currncy avrly affct hr a h fac a low rvnu n hr currncy whn man low. Th nuc hr to t a hghr prc. Fnally hgh wag w 0 lowr proft an ncra th count factor. If th xportr currncy prcat whn wag ar hgh Ew 0 rang th nvocng har of th tnaton currncy gnrat a favorabl hg a th xportr rcv mor n trm of hr own currncy whn wag ar hgh. Th nuc hr to ruc hr prc. Scon th cutomr urplu lowr whn man volatl thr bcau th rlatv prc of th bran volatl or bcau aggrgat man fluctuat. Th mnon captur by th trm n 0. Incrang th nvocng har of th cutomr currncy abov th unlatral allocaton ruc th volatlty of th xportr bran rlatv prc whch bnft th cutomr. In aton th ntvty of th cutomr urplu to th nvocng har lowr whn th cutomr currncy alray u ubtantally n th unlatral nvocng. Th th ca f for ntanc th currncy offr a goo hg agant fluctuaton n wag Ew 0. Incrang th u of th tnaton currncy thn yl only a morat gan for th cutomr. Fnally a hghr u of th tnaton currncy lmt th mpact of fluctuaton n man c on th cutomr urplu f th xportr currncy prcat whn man 6
hgh Ec 0. Intutvly nvocng n th xportr currncy thn lowr th rlatv prc of hr goo whn man alray hgh thrby magnfyng man volatlty. Th cutomr urplu thn balanc th mpact on th prt prc wth that on man volatlty. Th con apct omnat f th cutomr uffcntly mor r avr than th xportr... 0 alo how that a u of th cutomr currncy n nvocng abov t har n th unlatral outcom not ncarly n th cutomr ntrt. Conr th mpact of xchang rat volatlty. Rang th har of th cutomr currncy ha a rct bnft by rucng hr xpour to xchang rat movmnt. Th xpour howvr hft onto th xportr who rpon by rang hr prt prc 5. Th nrct ffct through th prc trongr th mor r avr th xportr th hghr. Th barganng allocaton can thu hft th nvocng towar th xportr currncy. Intutvly th bcau th xportr only ta account of th mpact of a lowr P z on hr own proft an not on th cutomr utlty. If th mol paramtr ar uch that 0 potv th barganng allocaton la to a largr u of th cutomr currncy than unr th unlatral allocaton. At that pont th rvatv of th xportr urplu wth rpct to th nvocng har ngatv whl th rvatv of th cutomr urplu potv. An ntrtng mplcaton of th mol prtan to th mpact of th xportr barganng powr. A D a crang functon of a ructon n th xportr powr hft nvocng towar th cutomr currncy. Th hft can occur prmarly at hgh valu of mplyng that a barganng allocaton omnat by th xportr can la to a ubtantally ffrnt rult than a unlatral allocaton. 9 Our rult can b ummarz by th followng mplcaton: Implcaton 7: Th optmal nvocng unr barganng lly to call for a largr u of th tnaton currncy than unr a unlatral choc by th xportr. Implcaton 8: Mot of th hft n mplcaton 7 can occur whn th xportr rtan a omnant rol n th barganng proc. 9 A numrcal xrc avalabl on rqut focung on th mpact of xchang rat volatlty how that th nvocng har of th cutomr currncy go from 38 prcnt whn = to 44 prcnt whn go to zro. Mot of th mpact achv by lowrng to 0.9 whr th nvocng har amount to 4 prcnt. 7
3.5. Invocng an conumr z Th rol of th conumr z rv by ttng 7 to zro an ffrntatng th rultng xpron wth rpct to th nvocng har an th z of man. Th mpl: SC H ' c D c D E H c Focu on th ca whr th rvatv of th cutomr urplu wth rpct to th nvocng har potv at th unlatral allocaton. A cu abov th mpl that th rvatv at th allocaton unr barganng alo potv an both of ar potv. Th har of th cutomr currncy n th nvocng bat thn largr for bggr cutomr. Intutvly th margnal valu of proft for th frm hghr whn t fal to rach an agrmnt wth a larg cutomr than whn t fal to o o wth a mallr on. Whn barganng wth a larg cutomr th frm thu mor amnabl to movng th u of th local currncy byon th lvl that t woul unlatrally choo. Th cntral lmnt of our rult not jut th fact that falng to rach an agrmnt wth a larg cutomr ntal ubtantal forgon proft but that th margnal valu of th proft largr. If th frm r-nutral 0 thn th functon H n qual to on mplyng that cutomr z ha no mpact on th outcom of th barganng proc. Th mpact of cutomr z on th nvocng con pn on th valu of th rvatv of th cutomr urplu wth rpct to th nvocng har. If th barganng allocaton ubtantally tlt towar th cutomr prfrnc bcau of a lmt barganng powr of th xportr for ntanc th rvatv of th cutomr urplu mall. Th lft han of thn mall an cutomr z ha lttl mpact. Intutvly bng a larg cutomr offr lttl atonal bnft whn th cutomr alray ha a ubtantal rol n th barganng proc. By contrat only larg cutomr can tlt th nvocng allocaton n thr favor whn thr rct barganng wght lmt. Our analy can b ummarz n th followng mplcaton: Implcaton 9: Unr a barganng trmnaton of nvocng th u of th tnaton currncy mor pronounc for largr cutomr. Implcaton 0: Cutomr z ha mor mpact on th nvocng con whn th barganng allocaton clo to th unlatral on. 8
3.6. Dcuon Our mol how that movng th choc of nvocng from a unlatral con by a frm to a barganng proc ubtantally altr th rult. Frt t la to a largr u of th tnaton currncy a th margnal mpact on th conumr wlfar potv at th nvocng lvl unlatrally chon by th frm a long a 0 potv. Scon th hft can b pronounc vn whn barganng omnat by th xportr. Thr th u of tnaton currncy largr for larg al a th margnal valu of proft hgh for uch al. Fourth th mpact of cutomr z largr whn cutomr hav lttl rct nflunc on th barganng proc. Our barganng mol alo offr a channl through whch frm n larg countr ar l lly to nvoc n th currncy of thr conumr. In th mol w conr that th frm only ll to forgn conumr for brvty. Th mol coul b xtn to nclu omtc al by th frm n t country. A frm wth a larg omtc mart woul hav a lowr margnal utlty of proft than a frm wth a mall mart an thu b l amnabl to hft t nvocng towar th tnaton currncy. In aton th frm coul to hav a largr barganng powr whch furthr ruc t wllngn to accommoat th n of forgn conumr. Whl w hav not a th mpact of th varou rvr conr n cton n our altrnatv mol th rult ar lly to b qualtatvly mlar. Scton 4. Th Currncy Invocng of Canaan Import To xplor th rol of th varou forc nfluncng nvocng w u a novl ataba contanng 45 mllon nvual mport tranacton for Canaa covrng all mport urng 00 to 009. W u th ata to gnrat tal obrvaton on nvocng an to tt th trngth of hgng motv of coalcng aroun a common nvocng currncy n an nutry an of a barganng rlatonhp btwn mportr an xportr. 4. Th Invocng Data 9
Th Canaa Borr Srvc Agncy CBSA rcor of vry mport tranacton nto Canaa. Each tranacton accompan by a cutom nvoc wth tal nformaton on th contxt xportng country of orgn currncy of ttlmnt nutry co up to HS0 quantty an valu of tranacton. 0 Our atat obtan from Stattc Canaa StatCan n conjuncton wth CBSA contan th full rotr of 44.5 mllon mport tranacton an pannng th pro from Fbruary 00 through Fbruary 009. Aftr obrvng om ncomplt amplng n Fb an March 00 w rop th month of ata an thn apply othr fltr to th ataba: tranacton ar ropp f thr mng nformaton for nvocng currncy nutry co country of orgn or valu. W rop Canaan mport from Canaa a th country of orgn nc th Canaan mport ar mot lly pror Canaan xport bng rturn to proucr or ar goo mport for th purpo of rpar. Atonally n our conomtrc wor crb blow w ntrouc varabl that ar country an tm-pcfc. For tractablty w lmt th group of xportng countr to th 47 that account for a combnaton of mot mport tranacton by count covrng 95.9 prcnt an by valu covrng 97. prcnt. Tabl prnt a compoton of Canaan mport tranacton nto broa prouct catgor an by aocat xportng rgon. Th compoton ba on a count of mport tranacton wthout rgar to th valu of ach nvoc tranacton. Tabl prov a mor convntonal compoton of mport wghtng th by valu of tranacton. Whl Canaan mport ar wly pr acro by xportng countr th Unt Stat th largt partnr of Canaa by a w margn accountng for 59 prcnt of all mport tranacton by count an 57 prcnt by valu. Th nxt largt mport ourc for Canaa ar th urozon prcnt of mport count 9 prcnt of mport valu an Aa both Eat an SouthEat Aa an Chna. Th rght mot column of ach of th tabl how th nutry compoton of Canaan mport. Clarly nutry concntraton lowr than th concntraton n trm of country of orgn of th mport. Vw from th ln of numbr of mport tranacton mport of machnry an qupmnt account for 35 prcnt of th ampl follow by tranport ctor mport at 0 prcnt. Vw tranacton valu howvr th rlatv z of th two 0 Th Cutom Cong form can b rfrnc at http://www.cba-afc.gc.ca/publcaton/form-formular/b3-3.pf 0
broa ctor flpp tranport hghr than machnry an qupmnt an mport of mnral prouct hav mor vbl conomc gnfcanc. Tabl an alo how that th prnc of partcular countr or rgon n Canaan mport var by th typ of mport. Th Unt Stat har n Canaan Import v accorng to xtn broa nutry group rang from a low of 40 prcnt footwar/hagar by count; or 5 prcnt by valu to a hgh of 84 prcnt for mnral prouct by count 77 prcnt for platc/rubbr by valu. Th urozon countr ar mot prvalnt n Canaan mport of chmcal lathr/fur/h an footuff although th lattr prouct rprnt a low valu of total mport. Whl Eat an South Eat Aa an Chna account for lowr total har n Canaan mport th prouct uppl by th countr ar hghly concntrat n pcfc ctor uch a footwar/hagar an lathr/fur/h. 4. Broa obrvaton on currncy nvocng of mport What broa pattrn appar n th nvocng of Canaan mport? A a frt pcton of th ata Fgur uppr an lowr panl prnt th voluton of th har of US ollar US$ Canaan ollar CAD uro EUR an othr currnc n nvocng Canaan mport. Th ata prnt n two format. Th uppr panl of Fgur prov nvocng har ba on mport tranacton count; th lowr panl of Fgur how currncy har n nvocng whn tranacton ar mport-valu wght. Th fgur prov om trng obrvaton. In aggrgat w obrv a omnant rol for th US ollar accountng ovr 85 prcnt of Canaan mport nvoc ovr th pro btwn 00 an 009. Th rol ha bn qut tabl ovr tm. Th CAD uro an othr currnc ach appar on l than 5 prcnt of Canaan mport nvoc. Intrtngly qut a ffrnt pattrn appar n th lowr panl. In th valu-wght nvocng ata th CAD har r to btwn 0 an 5 prcnt of mport rucng omwhat th conomc prvalnc of nvocng n US ollar whch nonthl tll omnant an rucng th prvalnc of othr currnc. Thr ha bn a mall tnncy towar an ncra n CAD nvocng valuaton. Anothr way to lc th ata ung th rlat mtrc an languag of our thortcal xpoton catng nvocng choc accorng to proucr currncy prcng local currncy prcng or vhcl currncy prcng among xportr to Canaa. Fgur how th har acro xportng countr of own-currncy u n xportng PCP vru CAD u LCP
vru thr country or vhcl currncy u VCP. Thr ar four panl n Fgur 3 allowng u to tnguh btwn tranacton count an valuaton a wll a btwn ovrall mport an mport from countr othr than th Unt Stat. Th focu uful nc th Unt Stat an outlr both n trm of magntu of tra wth Canaa an alo n trm of th hgh PCP har n th tra. Th fgur ar qut rvalng. In trm of tranacton court local currncy prcng th lat prvalnt prcng practc acro Canaan nvoc unwght by valu rgarl of whthr tranacton nclu th Unt Stat. For th full pctrum of tranacton count PCP th mot prvalnt form of prcng rflctng both th U.S. xportr u of ollar a wll a nvocng n uro from th urozon xportr yn from Japan xportr an poun trlng from Unt Kngom xportr. Whn U.S. tranacton ar xclu from th ampl VCP omnat tranacton count prumably u to th xtnv ntrnatonal rol of th U.S. ollar. A omwhat ffrnt nvocng profl appar n th valu-wght computaton. PCP hrn wth local currncy prcng mor prvalnt. Th ntrtng obrvaton ar bcau n th Canaan ata larg valu mport tranacton tn to u LCP mor frquntly than low valu mport. PCP lom u on mport tranacton wght by valu whn non-u.s. xportr ar olat. Hgh-valu xport mot oftn u a vhcl currncy for nvocng th ollar or LCP th CAD. Fgur 3 how th prvalnc of PCP n th xport of th Unt Stat urozon Unt Kngom Japan Chna an all othr countr. Th U.S. an outlr n trm of trong PCP. For othr countr hown th gr of PCP tll ubtantal an mor varabl ovr tm. PCP a fatur of fwr tranacton acro all othr major xportr. Howvr n om ca th valu of PCP tra ha ro l ubtantally. Dffrnc n nvoc har acro count an valu maur ar u to nvocng outcom ffrng along th mnon of tranacton z. Spcfcally our tt ovr mport aggrgat at th HS or HS4 lvl rpatly how tattcally hghr u of LCP n hghr valu mport tranacton. To llutrat th magntu of uch ffrnc Tabl 3 prnt th prvalnc of LCP n mport tranacton n th uppr 5 th prcntl of tranacton by z n ach broa catgory of Canaan mport. Hghr valu mport tranacton whch th Fgur an prov PCP har xportr own currncy u n nvocng har for th Unt Stat Eurozon Japan Unt Kngom Chna an all othr countr. Appnx Fgur by count Appnx Fgur by valu.
tranacton z column uggt ar gnrally ubtantally largr tranacton an not jut hghr qualty goo purcha ar contntly nvoc wth ubtantally hghr LCP har. Th pattrn robut to ncluon or xcluon of Canaan tra wth th Unt Stat. In 00 PCP charactrz about 40 prcnt of Canaan mport nvoc from th Eurozon an th Unt Kngom wth th proporton fallng to clor to 30 prcnt by 009. 5. Economtrc Analy W now turn to a formal amnt of th pattrn n th ata. Our conomtrc tt ar v to xplor th trmnant of LCP PCP an VCP for th full ampl of Canaan mport crb abov. For ach tranacton ach lft han rgron varabl whch rprnt a ngl mport nvoc -- ta a valu of zro or : for xampl n th LCP rgron th pnnt varabl on f an nvoc n CAD an zro othrw. Th rgron form LOGIT paratly run for LCP PCP an VCP. Morovr parat pcfcaton ar gnrat ung ata that pan th full clan pctrum of mport tranacton lavng a ampl of approxmatly 4 mllon obrvaton or ung ata whch xclu th Unt Stat countrparty tranacton lavng a ampl of approxmatly 7 mllon mport tranacton. All rgron pcfcaton of th LCP PCP an VCP choc by tranacton nclu tm fx ffct an clutrng of rual by at monthly. 5.. Varabl ntrouc n rgron Th rgron varabl ntrouc n our pcfcaton ar crb blow: walra t an rf : Contruct from th Rauch Inx an followng th cuon n t Golbrg an Tll 008 th maur ar hgh for hghr latcty of ubttuton goo. Rcall that th Rauch nx ta thr valu: ffrntat rfrnc prc an xchang tra or Walraan goo. Organz xchang tra goo ar tho that ar mot hghly ubttutabl wth mlar catgor of forgn prouc goo an th ffrntat prouct lat ubttutabl wth th lattr group nclung th bul of manufactur prouct. Th ummy varabl walra t an rf ta th rpctv valu of f goo ar walraan or rfrnc prc rpctvly an zro othrw o that t Appnx Tabl 3 prnt th har of LCP PCP an VCP n ach of th broa nutr for tranacton ampl that nclu or xclu Canaan mport from th Unt Stat. 3
ffrntat goo ar th rfrnc catgory. 3 Wth th walraan an rfrnc prc goo xpct to plac a lowr wght on hgng an xchang rat volatlty varabl. ollarpg t an uropg : contruct to b xportr pcfc at ach at t th ummy t varabl ncat whthr th xportr mantanng a ollar pg or pgg to th uro. Th pg clafcaton com from Rnhart an Rogoff "Exchang Rat Arrangmnt Entrng th t Cntury: Whch Anchor Wll Hol?" Th clafcaton go through th n of 007 o w u th fnal valu for our 008 obrvaton. Th trct pg maur only nclu an xact pg. Th loo pg maur alo nclu obrvaton wthn a prcnt ban. For th baln rgron prnt only th trct pg ar nclu. M t : contruct by xportr by quartr an by HS catgory th varabl rflct th har of ach country mport nto Canaa a gnrat from th complt CBSA atat. W u t to a whthr xportr from countr wth a larg mart har n a partcular nutry n Canaa ar mor ncln to u thr own currncy. Th varabl rang from 0 to. n n top5 n an top5total : contruct to proxy orr of larg Canaan mportr th ummy varabl ta th valu of f th valu of th nvoc corrponng to bng n th 95 th n or hghr prcntl for a partcular HS4 co top5n or for our total ata ampl n top5total or othrw zro. For mot rgron rult w focu only on th nutry contruct. ERvolatlty t : Th varabl captur th gr of blatral varablty btwn th xportr xchang rat an th Canaan ollar. In orr to control for ffrnc n lvl of xchang rat th contruct fn a th coffcnt of varaton of th Forgn/CAD xchang rat ovr a rollng lagg fv-yar pro. Th pro-avrag xchang rat ata com from th IMF Intrnatonal Fnancal Stattc ataba. Dollarhar t : Th varabl a contruct of th HS4 nutry har of U.S. ollar n nvocng tra by valu. It lagg on quartr n rgron. 3 Whl th nx orgnally contruct for SITC co w u an SITC-HS concoranc to match th varabl. Rauch prov a conrvatv an a lbral clafcaton of whch w u th conrvatv nx. 4
HUS$ Huro an HCAD : A n Golbrg an Tll 008 th hgng varabl ta t t t a valu of f th US ollar or CAD or uro ar rpctvly ar gnfcantly bttr currnc for hgng th volatlty of proft of th xportr an ar zro othrw. Varabl contructon crb n th appnx. Som pcfc obrvaton ar approprat for th contructon of th hgng varabl. Intutvly th hgng motv argu that th currncy u for nvocng houl b th currncy whch gnrat unxpct fluctuaton n rvnu that offt unxpct hoc to margnal cot tmmng from thr wag or th trngth of man. If for ntanc an unxpct hgh growth n Canaan man ra th margnal cot th xportr ha an ncntv to nvoc n a currncy that tn to apprcat agant h own n uch tat thrby bootng h unt rvnu. Th challng to mplmnt uch a contruct n for our ampl of 48 xportr an ovr th full ampl pro. In practc f thr a pro of abov trn growth n an xport tnaton mart an xportr mght valu for nvocng va th hgng motv a currncy that ha tn to apprcat ovr mlar pro of conomc growth. W contruct rollng corrlaton of xportr blatral xchang rat agant th proxy for xportr cot ovr th pror 8 quartr an u th pattrn of obrv corrlaton n an xportr rcnt pat to trmn h hgng prfrnc n pro t. A hgng currncy houl apprcat on avrag whn th xport tnaton mart ha abnormally hgh growth an houl hav a trongr potv corrlaton that woul b th ca f altrnatv currnc wr u for hgng. In our ata th gnral trn that th CAD a goo hg arly on n th pro an lat n th pro. USD an EUR gt om acton n th ml. Acro all countr an ovr th whol tmaton pro th thr currnc an non at all ar about qually balanc: USD prcnt EUR prcnt CAD 6 prcnt an non 3 prcnt. 5.. Economtrc amnt of LCP PCP an VCP Our conomtrc analy prform ung LOGIT rgron ovr LCP PCP an VCP choc. Th analy conuct for th full ampl of all Canaan mport for mport from non-u.s. countr an for mport from th Unt Stat. Th frt pa through th ata ntrouc all varabl nto ach pcfcaton wthout ntracton among th varabl. Our nxt pa through th ata ar pcfcally am at hypoth ttng rlat to upport for th 5
hgng motv coalcng motv xchang rat rgm an th rol of barganng btwn cutomr an proucr. Th numrcal rult ar gvn n atonal tabl whr column rprnt tnct rgron an cll rport maxmum llhoo tmat of coffcnt wth lvl at whch Pr > ChSq n bract bnath th tmat. Any coffcnt tmat that ar tattcally gnfcant at th 5 prcnt lvl ar ncat n bol. Th tabl alo rport th numbr of obrvaton u n th rgron th numbr of obrvaton for whch th pnnt varabl nonzro an th AIC tattc on th rgron ft. A not all rgron nclu tm fx ffct an hav clutr rual by monthly at. A broa amnt of th rult Inta of lvng nto all of th nvual rgron pcfcaton rult Tabl 5 to 7 w frt rvw th xpct gn on trm ntrouc nto th rgron an cu whch hypoth ar aocat wth th trm. Th mappng of hypoth to rgron nput prov n Tabl 4 whch cntral for unrtanng th mprcal fnng of th papr. Th trm ar v nto four group rlvant for th hypoth of rvr of currncy nvocng of ntrnatonal tra: th hang nclung coalcng or hrng n a common currncy hgng agant proft volatlty 3 barganng powr of mportng cutomr an 4 rct rol of xchang rat arrangmnt. Th gn n th tabl not th xpct rcton of rult a prct by th thortcal mol. In trm of th vhcl currncy w ta t to b th U.S. ollar for non-us xportr o that rfrnc prc an walraan goo tho wth hghr latct of ubttuton among comptng upplr woul coalc aroun th US ollar. Thortcally th coalcng coul occur aroun anothr currncy. Tabl 4 alo mportant n that t ummarz whch of th thortcal hypoth ar confrm or rfut by th mprcal wor. A C labl nxt to th gn ncat that th tmat coffcnt ar contnt wth th thortcal prcton an gnfcant at th 5 prcnt lvl. An I labl not that th tmat rult ar ncontnt an tattcally gnfcant. Th abnc of labl ncat that th coffcnt tmat ar not tattcally gnfcant. Coalcng or hrng n a common currncy: Whn th ummy ncatng hghly ubttutabl goo ntract wth pror ollar har n nutry nvocng w fn upport for th thortcal hypoth. Inutr wth a larg prvou u of th ollar ar mor lly 6
to p ung ollar. Rgron that xclu th ntract trm fn a mor contnt pattrn of upport for walra an rf. t t Hgng agant proft volatlty: Th hgng varabl hav mx ucc n nfluncng th nvoc currncy choc pobly rflctng th challng of bulng th maur. PCP hghr for US xport whn hgng motv favor th US ollar an hghr for LCP whn hgng motv favor th CAD. Th uro a a hgng currncy a l contnt prctor of choc. Th mx vnc on th hgng motv can ar thr bcau th thory not fully upport or bcau th ata unrlyng our tt ar lmt. It pobl that th ncator varabl o not appropratly account for th proft corrlaton that ntr nto proucr con. Exchang rat volatlty of a country o not contntly ruc th prvalnc of proucr currncy prcng or ra th prvalnc of PCP or VCP. Barganng powr of mportr. Th prumpton of our rgron that largr mport nto an nutry n Canaa ar mapp to largr an mor powrful mportr. Thu th mport ar mor lly to b aocat wth LCP nc th mportr prfr to hav th xchang rat r born lwhr. In om of th ffct of nhanc barganng powr of omnant xportr whr hgh mport har ra th llhoo of PCP mght b mnh whn thr ar lw larg cutomr on th othr of th tranacton. Th hypoth ar broaly upport n th rgron pcfcaton. Drct rol of xchang rat arrangmnt. Th hypoth rgarng xchang rat rgm an nvocng ar broaly upport. Dollar pg countr ar contntly foun to u vhcl currnc mor broaly prumably th US ollar a th vhcl currncy an ruc th prvalnc of LCP an PCP. Europg countr ar lly to u th uro mor frquntly wth LCP an VCP l prvalnt. Dtal rgron W now turn to th tal conomtrc rult. For brvty w focu on th rult for non-u.s. xportr a th ovrall rult ar ubtantally rvn by U.S. frm who narly xcluvly u th USD. Tabl 5 prnt th tmat of a baln rgron that o not nclu any ntracton btwn th varou varabl. Spcfcally w tmat: 7
LCP or PCP or VCP walra rf ollarpg uropg M n n n t t t 0 t t 3 t 4 t 5 t top5n ERvolatlty HUSD HEUR HCAD n 6 7 t 8 t 9 t 0 t t Exportr n nutr whr man ntv to prc rf or walra tn to u th CAD an a vhcl currncy lly to b th USD mor xtnvly. Th contnt wth a coalcng motv aroun th tnaton currncy for ntanc rflctng Canaan comptton or aroun th USD whch th tanar currncy n commot. Exportr from countr wth an xchang rat pg to th USD nvoc mor n that currncy VCP at th xpn of thr own. A pg wth th uro la xportr to favor th u of thr own currncy. A hghr har of Canaan mport ruc th u of th CAD a xportr ar n a trongr poton v-à-v Canaan cutomr an ra th u of th xportr currncy an mor o th USD. Larg orr whch rflct a trongr barganng poton of Canaan cutomr ar aocat wth a largr u of th CAD. What mattr whthr orr ar larg rlatv to th nutry n quton an not rlatv to ovrall mport. Exportr from countr wth a volatl xchang rat favor th USD ovr thr own currncy a fatur contnt wth th thortcal fnng that nvocng ta plac n currnc wth mor tabl funamntal. Th analy how om lmt upport for th hgng motv. Whn th USD a bttr hgng currncy nvocng tlt towar t but alo towar th CAD. Smlarly th CAD u mor xtnvly whn t prov hgng bnft. By contrat favorabl hgng proprt of th uro ar not aocat wth a mor ntnv u. W now a whthr om of our varabl ar complmntary ttng for th gnfcanc of ntracton. W tart by ang whthr th coalcng motv th rf an walra varabl ntract wth th aggrgat u of th USD. Th rult ar prnt n Tabl 6 whr w tmat: LCP or PCP or VCP walra rf ollarpg uropg M n n n t t t 0 t t 3 t 4 t 5 t top5n ERvolatlty HUSD HEUR HCAD walra n 6 7 t 8 t 9 t 0 t t ollarhar rf ollarhar t t t t 8
Th rult how that xportr n nutr wth a trong coalcng motv tn to u th CAD or thr currncy at th xpn of th USD. Th o not mply that nvual xportr o not u th USD but nta that thy rqur an aggrgat u of that currncy to o o a hown by th ntract varabl. Th tabl thu offr upport for th coalcng hypoth that frm n nutr whr man prc-ntv ar mor lly to nvoc n th currncy that ha a hghr aggrgat rol. Notc that th partcular apct coul not b tt n arlr tu that rl on aggrgat ata. W nxt turn to th hgng motv an a whthr t l prvalnt n nutr wth a trong coalcng motv. Spcfcally Tabl 7 how th rult of th followng rgron: LCP or PCP or VCP walra rf ollarpg uropg M n n n t t t 0 t t 3 t 4 t 5 t top5n ERvolatlty HUSD HEUR HCAD HUSD n 6 7 t 8 t 9 t 0 t t walra HUSD rf HEUR walra 4 HEUR rf 5 HCAD walra 6 t t t 3 t t t t t t HCAD rf t t t Intutvly w xpct frm n nutr wth trong coalcng motv to hav l lway to pc th currncy that woul bt hg thr own cot a thy hav to p n ln wth th pattrn of nvocng n thr own nutry. W fn om upport for th conjctur: frm for whch th uro offr hgng bnft u t rlatvly l whn thy hav to alo ta account of ubtantal coalcng conraton. Th gn ar rvr for th CAD an USD a frm wth uch conraton ar mot lly to u th currncy n quton whn t offr hgng bnft. Th pattrn potntally rflct th fact that nutr wth hgh coalcng motv coornat thr aroun th CAD u to Canaan comptton for ntanc or th USD. Th hgng an coalcng motv coul thn b complmntary whra thy ar oppot n th ca of th uro. Fnally w conr th ntracton of varabl rflctng th rlatv barganng powr of conumr an frm wth othr varabl. Th on n Tabl 7 whr w tmat: LCP or PCP or VCP walra rf ollarpg uropg M n n n t t t 0 t t 3 t 4 t 5 t top5n ERvolatlty HUSD HEUR HCAD top5n M n n 6 7 t 8 t 9 t 0 t t t 9
Larg hpmnt ar mor lly to b nvoc n CAD whra xportr ma mor u of thr own currncy whn thy rprnt a larg har of th mart. Intractng th two how that th nvocng tlt towar th CAD for larg hpmnt mor mar whn xportr rprnt a larg har of th mart. Th fnng n ln wth our thortcal rult that cutomr z mattr mot whn xportr hav a hghr barganng powr whch can b prox by thr mart har. 6. Conclung Rmar to b furthr vlop Th papr ar two lmtaton that affct th xtng ltratur on ntrnatonal tra nvocng. On th thory w ar th lac of ntrplay btwn cutomr an xportr n th lcton of nvocng currnc. W vlop a mol whr nvocng t through a barganng gam btwn th xportr an th cutomr. Two man rult mrg. Frt a unlatral nvocng choc by th xportr a conr n th ltratur lly to la to a u of th tnaton currncy that uboptmally low from th pont of vw of th conumr. Scon our mol mpl that th u of th cutomr currncy mor pronounc for larg al pcally whn th rct barganng powr of xportr hgh. On th mprcal w tt a rang of trmnant of nvocng by ung a nw hghly aggrgat atat for 45 mllon Canaan mport tranacton. W bgn by ocumntng th pattrn of nvocng. Whl th U.S. ollar xtnvly u othr currnc tll account from 7.9 prcnt of mport by count 68.4 prcnt by valu from countr othr than th Unt Stat. W fn trong upport for coalcng or hrng a common currncy trong upport for th barganng powr of mportng cutomr trong upport for a rct rol of xchang rat arrangmnt an only mx upport for nvocng con nflunc by proft hgng conraton. Th lattr wan coul b a rult of th ffculty gttng an approprat ncator of th choc. 30
Rfrnc: Bacchtta Phlpp an van Wncoop Erc. 005. A Thory of th Currncy Dnomnaton of Intrnatonal Tra. Journal of Intrnatonal Economc Dcmbr 67 pp. 95-39. Dvrux Mchal Engl Charl an Storgaar Ptr. 004. Enognou Exchang Rat Pa-Through whn Nomnal Prc ar t n Avanc. Journal of Intrnatonal Economc 63 pp. 63-9. Donnnfl Shabta an Haug Alfr. 003. "Currncy Invocng n Intrnatonal Tra: An Emprcal Invtgaton." Rvw of Intrnatonal Economc pp. 33-345. Frbrg Rchar an Wlanr Frr 008. Th currncy nomnaton of xport -- A qutonnar tuy. Journal of Intrnatonal Economc 75 pp. 54-69. Frbrg Rchar. 998. "In whch Currncy Shoul Exportr St thr Prc?" Journal of Intrnatonal Economc 45 pp. 59-76. Golbrg Lna an Cérc Tll. 008. Vhcl currncy u n ntrnatonal tra. Journal of Intrnatonal Economc 76 pp. 77-9. Gopnath Gta Olg Itho an Robrto Rgobon. Currncy Choc an Exchang Rat Pa-through" Amrcan Economc Rvw forthcomng. Novy Dnn 006. Hg your Cot: Exchang Rat R an Enognou Currncy Invocng mmo Unvrty of Cambrg. Rauch Jam. 999. Ntwor vru Mart n Intrnatonal Tra. Journal of Intrnatonal Economc 48 pp. 7-35. Rnhart an Rogoff "Exchang Rat Arrangmnt Entrng th t Cntury: Whch Anchor Wll Hol?" 3
Tabl. Rgonal Exportr Prnc n Canaan Import by Broa Inutry Group by Count Broa Inutry Catgory Prcnt Shar n Import Tranacton Count Unt Stat Eurozon Eat an SE Aa Chna Othr Amrca All Othr Countr Prcnt of Total Anmal Prouct 68. 5.0 9.9 4.6 3.0 9.3.0 Vgtabl Prouct 60.6 7.9 7.5 5.9 3.8 4.3 3. Footuff 6.7.8 7.8 3.5.6 3.5 3. Mnral Prouct 84.0 4.6.5 3. 0.7 6..5 Chmcal 70.3.5.8 3.3 0.4.6 9.8 Platc/Rubbr 63.7. 7.8 3.3 0.9 3. 7.0 Lathr/Fur/H 44. 4.3 3. 9.3.9 7..0 Woo Prouct 66.3 9.8 8. 4.7.0 9.9 7. Txtl 4.8 3.6 4.6 9..4 8.4 9.3 Footwar/Hagar 39.7.9 8. 5..9.. Ston/Gla 5.9 3.3 9.7 6.8.7 5.7 4.6 Mtal 6.7.4 7.3 4.6 0.8 4. 3. Machnry/Elctrcal 56.3 3.4 8.8 3.5 0.9 7. 3. Tranportaton 65.4 0.3 5.9 3. 0.8 4.3.8 Mcllanou 54.5.6 0.7 6.5 0.5 6. 0.9 Srvc 67. 8.9 7..9 0.7 3. 0.8 Total 58.9.8 8.6 5.0.0 4.7 3
Tabl. Rgonal Exportr Prnc n Canaan Import by Broa Inutry Group by Valu Broa Inutry Catgory Prcnt Shar n Import Tranacton Valu Unt Stat Eurozon Eat an SE Aa Chna Othr Amrca All Othr Countr Prcnt of Total Anmal Prouct 6.3 5.5 8.3 7.9 4..8 0.8 Vgtabl Prouct 69.6 5.5 3.7.8 6...9 Footuff 58.6 7.7 4.0.9 4.9.8 3.0 Mnral Prouct 6.9 4.6 0.3 0.4.3 66.5 0.9 Chmcal 59.0 9.3.3.0. 7. 7.8 Platc/Rubbr 76.9 5. 5.4 6.0 0.4 6. 4.7 Lathr/Fur/H 4.4 5.9 5.3 53. 3.0 8. 0.4 Woo Prouct 79.4 7..3 6.0.6 3.5 3.4 Txtl 3. 6.7.4 33. 0.9 5.6.7 Footwar/Hagar 4.9.0.9 64.8 3.9 3.6 0.5 Ston/Gla 55.5 8.7.7 8.0.3 3.8. Mtal 64.5 7.6 4.9 9.4 3.7 9.8 6.8 Machnry/Elctrcal 54.5 7.9 9.0. 0.3 7. 5.7 Tranportaton 68.9 9. 4. 0.8 0.9 6.0.0 Mcllanou 47.3 9.7 4.6. 0. 5.9 6. Srvc 59.6 4.0 0.7 0.9 0. 4.7.0 Total 56.6 9. 5.0 7.5.5 0. 33
Tabl 3. LCP Shar an Import Tranacton Sz Broa Inutry Catgory Inclung th Unt Stat Exclung th Unt Stat Man Tranacton Sz CAD LCP Shar by Count Man Tranacton Sz CAD LCP Shar by Count Low 95th Prcntl Uppr 5th Prcntl Low 95th Prcntl Uppr 5th Prcntl Low 95th Prcntl Uppr 5th Prcntl Low 95th Prcntl Uppr 5th Prcntl Anmal Prouct 7378 3665 3.3 8.7 386 457343 5.7 6. Vgtabl Prouct 3508 3004 3.7 5. 335 396 5.7 9.3 Footuff 670 3968 4.4 9.4 733 3645 6.0 4.5 Mnral Prouct 474 7340.9 7. 764 705977 5. 7.0 Chmcal 604 4.5 3.8 46 6860 6.6 9.3 Platc/Rubbr 387 3689 3.0 8.9 89 87073 3.3 3.9 Lathr/Fur/H 86 4768 3.3 9.3 309 843 3.4 0.3 Woo Prouct 50 096 3..6 539 50689 4. 3.5 Txtl 94 5503 3.7 8.8 030 804 4.0 0.7 Footwar/Hagar 50 33843 4.5 7.8 04 37506 4.7 7.7 Ston/Gla 668 88994 3.5 7.0 307 83740 4.0 8.7 Mtal 788 43673 3. 7.9 95 080 3.7 3. Machnry/Elctrcal 4005 509480.9 8.5 86 560843 3.3 0.9 Tranportaton 3655 539.5 0. 607 950.7 3.4 Mcllanou 33 67970 3.4 0.3 937 7794 3.8 3. Srvc 5 55764 5.4 5. 99 54586 6.4 0.6 34
Tabl 4 Summary of Hypoth an Emprcal Rult Th gn ncat not th xpct rcton of rult a prct by th thortcal mol. If tmatar contnt wth th prcton an gnfcant at th 5 prcnt lvl th ymbol C for contnt ntr. If ncontnt an tattcally gnfcant th ymbol I ntr. If no ymbol ar ntr th rult ar tattcally ngnfcant. For non-us xportr th VCP aum USD. Hurot an uropg ra PCP for uro xportr only. Hypoth Corrponng Varabl Rgron Coffcnt Non-US Export to Canaa Rgron Coffcnt US Export To Canaa Coalcng or hrng n a common currncy Hgng agant proft volatlty Barganng powr of mportng cutomr Drct rol of xchang rat arrangmnt LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP Rf - I - C + C -I +C -C Walra - I - C + C -C +C -C Rf - I - I + I -I +I -C Walra - I - I + I -I +I -C Rf Dollarhart - C - C + C -C +C -C Walra Dollarhart - C - C + C -C +C -C HCADt +C - - + - - Hurot -I +I -I -C - + HUS$ t - -C +C - + - HCAD t rf walra _ + + - + + Huro t rf walra +I/C -IC +I +I +C -C HUS$ t rf walra + +I - + - + ERvolatltyt + -C +C +C -C +C mporthar t + C +C - C - C + C - C top5n + C - C - C + C - C - C mporthart top5n + C - C +C + C - C - C ollarpg t - C - C + C uropg - I + C - C t 35
Tabl 5 Baln Rgron All Canaan Import Tranacton All Canaan Import xclung US All Canaan Import from US LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP Rf 0.7-0.09-0.07 0.49-0.3 0.0 0.05 0.08 -.5 [0.00] [0.00] [0.00] [0.0] [0.0] [0.00] [0.00] [0.00] [0.04] Walra 0.0 0.09-0.08 0.3-0.8 0.07-0.9 0.36 -. [0.00] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] Dollarpg -0.3.54 -.0-0. -.36 0.96 [0.0] [0.07] [0.06] [0.0] [0.04] [0.0] Europg 0.0.49 -.30 0.0.4 -.6 [0.0] [0.06] [0.06] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] Importhar -0.57 6.4-8.33-5.68 0.65 0.89-0.6 0.6-0.53 [0.0] [0.07] [0.] [0.0] [0.04] [0.04] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] Top5n.34 -.4 0.63.67-0.3-0.55.4 -.07 -.84 [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.05] ERcofvar 0.33 5.37-4.6-0.4-7.3 5.03 -.9-8.40 0.3 [0.9] [.05] [.87] [0.30] [.90] [.3] [9.59] [0.64] [30.63] HUSD 0.05-0.4 0.5 0.07-0.3 0.8 [0.0] [0.06] [0.08] [0.0] [0.04] [0.03] HEUR 0.05-0.30 0.5 0.07-0.6 0. -0.05 0.5-0.07 [0.0] [0.0] [0.] [0.0] [0.06] [0.05] [0.37] [0.6] [0.39] HCAD 0.0-0.7 0.8 0.06-0.0 0.00 0.07-0.3 0.06 [0.03] [0.7] [0.7] [0.0] [0.03] [0.0] [0.73] [0.5] [0.76] AIC 563956 73730 445440 578797 348808 5670579 6737 7579768 55448 Obrvaton 406460 406460 406460 65389 65389 65389 403969 403969 403969 Dpnnt= 506593 6084860 3050807 7356 879709 93356 77367 3055 745 Not: All rgron nclu tm fx ffct. Rgron follow a Bnary Logt Mol wth maxmum llhoo tmat of coffcnt prov an [.] rportng tanar rror. Incat n bol ar gnfcant coffcnt at th 5 prcnt probablty lvl. 36
Tabl 6 Canaan Import an Coalcng Motv All Canaan Import Tranacton All Canaan Import xclung US All Canaan Import from US LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP Rf.3 0. -0.86.5 0.8 -..38 -.35.3 [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.07] Walra 0.69 0. -0.34 0.43.0-0.98.07 -.0.5 [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.04] [0.05] [0.] Dollarpg -0.5.57 -.05-0. -.33 0.94 [0.0] [0.07] [0.06] [0.0] [0.04] [0.0] Europg 0.09.48 -.9 0.0.43 -.6 [0.0] [0.06] [0.07] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] Importhar -0.53 6. -8.7-5.76 0.55 0.98-0.55 0.55-0.47 [0.0] [0.07] [0.] [0.0] [0.03] [0.04] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] Top5n.34 -.5 0.64.67-0.3-0.55.6 -.09 -.86 [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.05] ERcofvar 0.3 5.85-4.73-0.7-6.80 4.84 3.43-7.6-4.08 [0.3] [.5] [.06] [0.3] [.96] [.39] [30.85] HUSD 0.03-0.5 0.7 0.07-0.3 0.8 [0.0] [0.07] [0.08] [0.0] [0.04] [0.03] HEUR 0.04-0.35 0.3 0.07-0.5 0.0-0.73 0.7.68 [0.0] [0.0] [0.] [0.0] [0.07] [0.05] [0.09] [0.07] [0.39] HCAD 0.00-0.6 0.6 0.05-0.0 0.0-0.48 0.05.33 [0.03] [0.7] [0.7] [0.0] [0.03] [0.0] [0.09] Rf * -.8-0.37 0.96-0.95 -.3.4 -.6.73-3. Dollarhar Walra * Dollarhar [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.03] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.3] -0.77-0.0 0.30-0.5 -.47.8 -.40.5-3.97 [0.03] [0.04] [0.04] [0.03] [0.0] [0.0] [0.04] [0.05] [0.0] AIC 08473 6453543 3673806 557785 936509 5096980 644579 788484 50999 Obrvaton 394409 394409 394409 60337 60337 60337 33079 33079 33079 Dpnnt= 4503 53685 6576 70899 7796 53356 743 3643 4456 Not: All rgron nclu tm fx ffct. Rgron follow a Bnary Logt Mol wth maxmum llhoo tmat of coffcnt prov an [.]rportng tanar rror. Incat n bol ar gnfcant coffcnt at th 5 prcnt probablty lvl. 37
Tabl 7 Canaan Import an Hgng Motv All Canaan Import Tranacton All Canaan Import xclung US All Canaan Import from US LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP Rf 0.4-0.3-0.03 0.54-0.7 0.0 0.09 0.04 -. [0.0] [0.03] [0.03] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.08] Walra -0.06 0.8-0.4 0.6-0.4 0.09-0.9 0.35 -.8 [0.0] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.] Dollarpg -0.4.54 -.03-0. -.36 0.96 [0.0] [0.07] [0.06] [0.0] [0.04] [0.0] Europg 0.0.49 -.30 0.0.4 -.6 [0.0] [0.06] [0.06] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] Importhar -0.56 6.3-8.3-5.67 0.65 0.88-0.6 0.6-0.53 [0.0] [0.07] [0.] [0.09] [0.03] [0.04] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] Top5n.34 -.4 0.63.67-0.3-0.55.4 -.07 -.84 [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.05] ERcofvar 0.36 5.36-4.6-0.4-7.3 5.03.39-8.37 9.99 [0.9] [.05] [.87] [0.30] [.90] [.3] [0.6] [30.65] HUSD -0.0-0. 0.4 0.08-0. 0.8 [0.0] [0.07] [0.08] [0.0] [0.04] [0.03] HEUR 0.05-0.3 0.7 0.08-0.6 0. -0.08 0.3-0.06 [0.03] [0.] [0.] [0.0] [0.06] [0.05] [.53] [0.39] HCAD 0.0-0.8 0.8 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.4-0.4 0.06 [0.03] [0.7] [0.8] [0.0] [0.03] [0.0] [0.5] [0.76] HUSD * Rf 0.6-0. 0.08-0.04-0.08 0.04 [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] HUSD * Walra 0.5-0.40 0.7 0.0-0.05 0.0 [0.03] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.0] [0.0] HEUR * Rf -0.05 0.3-0.7-0.09 0.03-0. -0.05 0.05-0.09 [0.03] [0.04] [0.04] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.09] HEUR * Walra 0.0-0.04 0.0 0.0-0.08-0.07-0.0 0.0-0.4 [0.03] [0.04] [0.05] [0.03] [0.03] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.9] HCAD * Rf 0.0 0.05-0.05-0.04-0.08 0.03-0.05 0.04-0.03 [0.03] [0.04] [0.04] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.09] HCAD * Walra 0.09-0.09 0.04 0.0-0.03-0.04 0.0 0.00 -.7 [0.0] [0.04] [0.04] [0.03] [0.03] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.8] AIC 56998 73693 4450703 578706 348365 5669708 6736 757977 5543 Obrvaton 406460 406460 406460 65389 65389 65389 403969 403969 403969 Dpnnt= 506593 6084860 3050807 7356 879709 93356 77367 3055 745 Not: All rgron nclu tm fx ffct. Rgron follow a Bnary Logt Mol wth maxmum llhoo tmat of coffcnt an [.] rportng tanar rror. 38
Tabl 8 Canaan Import an Hgng an Barganng Forc All Canaan Import Tranacton All Canaan Import xclung US All Canaan Import from US LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP Rf 0.7-0.09-0.07 0.50-0.3 0.0 0.05 0.08 -.5 [0.00] [0.00] [0.00] [0.0] [0.0] [0.00] [0.00] [0.00] [0.04] Walra 0.0 0.08-0.07 0.3-0.8 0.07-0.9 0.35 -. [0.00] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] Dollarpg -0.4.5-0.99-0. -.36 0.96 [0.0] [0.07] [0.06] [0.0] [0.04] [0.0] Europg 0.0.49 -.3 0.0.4 -.6 [0.0] [0.06] [0.06] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] Importhar -0.5 6.39-8.7-7.6 0.9 0.53-0.64 0.64-0.53 [0.0] [0.07] [0.] [0.3] [0.03] [0.04] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] Top5n.47-0.69-0.05.54-0.7-0.67.03-0.83 -.5 [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.0] [0.] ERcofvar 0.3 5.33-4.8-0.8-7.3 5.03 3.6-8.77 9.7 [0.30] [.05] [.87] [0.9] [.90] [.3] [0.64] [30.64] HUSD 0.03-0.4 0.5 0.07-0.3 0.8 [0.0] [0.07] [0.08] [0.0] [0.04] [0.03] HEUR 0.05-0.9 0.5 0.07-0.6 0.0-0. 0.4-0.06 [0.0] [0.0] [0.] [0.0] [0.07] [0.05] [0.6] [0.39] HCAD 0.0-0.7 0.7 0.05-0.0 0.00 0.8-0.5 0.04 [0.03] [0.7] [0.7] [0.0] [0.03] [0.0] [0.5] [0.76] Top5n * -0.39 -.53 3.8 3.64 -.55.94 0.35-0.4 -. Importhar [0.0] [0.03] [0.04] [0.] [0.07] [0.05] [0.03] [0.03] [0.9] AIC 56566 7337067 434489 578358 344779 5666035 67847 7579307 554383 Obrvaton 406460 406460 406460 65389 65389 65389 403969 403969 403969 Dpnnt= 506593 6084860 3050807 7356 879709 93356 77367 3055 745 Not: All rgron nclu tm fx ffct. Rgron follow a Bnary Logt Mol wth maxmum llhoo tmat of coffcnt prov an [.] rportng tanar rror. Incat n bol ar gnfcant coffcnt at th 5 prcnt probablty lvl. 39
Fgur. Currncy U n Invocng Canaan Import 40
Fgur. Proucr Local an Vhcl Currncy Prcng n Canaan Import Tranacton 4
Fgur 3. Prvalnc of Proucr Currncy Prcng by Spcfc Exportr
Appnx Contructng th hgng varabl. A xpot n Golbrg an Tll 008 th hgng motv for nvoc currncy lcton rflct th covaranc btwn xchang rat an proucr margnal cot m an m. Th a that th proucr houl v choo an nvocng currncy o that rvnu ar hght whn cot ar hght wth th potv corrlaton hlpng to hg proucr proftablty. Proucr margnal cot ar mol a m w / c whr w th wag or proucr prc nx rprntng th unt margnal cot of th xportr an c th ntvty of margnal cot to chang n man rprntng th hap of th proucton frontr. 4 W proxy for 4 For th approxmatly 50 countr covr a xportr to Canaa w hav wag ata an proucr prc nx ata. For th 6 countr acro whch both wag an PPI ata ar avalabl th r tn to b hghly corrlat n mot ca xcpt for Franc an Japan an potvly but l trongly corrlat for part of Aa. Wag ata wr nomnal an n th hom currncy from th ILO : http://laborta.lo.org/. PPI ata ar from th IMF IFS ataba. 43
xportr margnal cot n ach country by contructng quartrly valu for cot of nput m whr th w ar th log nomnal proucr prc nc n xportr currncy t at 0.65 an c th log of ral conumpton n Canaa a th xport tnaton mart. Th pp valu ar mor rabl than pur wag nc thy ntrnalz th cot of mport nput that can nflunc hgng con. Evn mor rabl woul b nutry-pcfc proucton cot. n unt of currncy pr unt of currncy o an ncra a prcaton of currncy. In our applcaton to th Canaan ata ally urpr n conumpton trngth an pp woul b corrlat wth urpr prcaton of th xportr currncy to xtract a prfrr hg. W o not hav ata covrag to run th typ of xprmnt. Inta w comput ach m an run a rollng corrlaton wth thr blatral xchang rat whch ar v-à-v ollar uro an CAD ovr 8 pror quartr of ata. A rabl hgng currncy ha a potv corrlaton an a hghr corrlaton than th two altrnatv currnc. If no currnc hav rcnt potv corrlaton wth th m thn all hg umm ar gvn a zro valu at a partcular at. Th contruct ncator varabl ar H$ HEURO an HCAD that ta th 44
Appnx Tabl Prcnt of Obrvaton Country Frquncy By Count By Valu Algra 804 0.0.0 Angola 638 0.00 0.97 Autrala 89876 0.44 0.43 Autra 6484 0.6 0.3 Blgum 8394 0.65 0.43 Brazl 9395 0.67 0.74 Chl 70499 0.6 0.35 Chna 08634 4.78 7.9 Czch Rpublc 66495 0.38 0.07 Dnmar 4869 0.57 0.35 Fnlan 6066 0.37 0.6 Franc 848044.94.44 Grmany 366460 3.3.69 Hong Kong 379889 0.87 0.6 Hungary 353 0.8 0.06 Ina 63809.46 0.44 Inona 30558 0.70 0.4 Iraq 39 0.00 0.45 Irlan 37397 0.3 0.53 Iral 370 0.48 0. Italy 03977.38.3 Japan 9697.57 3.66 Malaya 9003 0.66 0.64 Mxco 804077.84 3.67 Nthrlan 36875 0.83 0.5 Ngra 5889 0.0 0.65 Norway 90394 0..36 Patan 3303 0.30 0.07 Pru 63036 0.4 0.33 Phlppn 96 0.53 0.3 Polan 5567 0.36 0.6 Portugal 3360 0.3 0.0 Rua 594 0.4 0.44 Sau Araba 008 0.0 0.38 Sngapor 59667 0.37 0.3 South Afrca 056 0.5 0.8 45
Appnx Tabl cont. Prcnt of Obrvaton Country Frquncy By Count By Valu South Kora 593440.36.65 Span 336599 0.77 0.36 Swn 366043 0.84 0.54 Swtzrlan 458790.05 0.55 Tawan 97069. 0.96 Thalan 46733.07 0.5 Tury 656 0.5 0.8 Unt Kngom 0744.35 3.34 Unt Stat 4654574 56.49 54.96 Vnzula 496 0.03 0.38 Vtnam 93860 0.44 0.5 Total 4850350 95.89 97. 46
Appnx Tabl : Stanalon Rgron ntroucton of varabl All Canaan Import Canaan Import xclung US Rf 0.64 LCP PCP VCP LCP PCP VCP [0.003] Walra -0.06 [0.005] Dollarpg -0.376 [0.004] Europg 0.067 [0.003] Importhar -0.679 [0.005] Top5n.030 [0.009] Top5tot 0.4 [0.003] ERcofvar 0.657 [.008] Hg$ 0.38 [0.09] HgEuro -0.09 [0.03] HgCAD -0.0 [0.033] Dollarhr t- -.07 [0.09] 0.54 [0.003] 0.487 [0.004] 3.97 [0.0].54 [0.0] 7.474 [0.09] -0.40 [0.008] 0.9 [0.003] -.38 [5.69] -.733 [0.85] -0.46 [0.40] -0.37 [0.408] 0.69 [0.05] -0.64 [0.003] -0.509 [0.004] -3.869 [0.08] -.339 [0.008] -9.0 [0.03] 0.58 [0.009] -0.335 [0.003].39 [5.76].667 [0.04] 0.464 [0.444] 0.359 [0.433] -0.098 [0.0] 0.58 [0.005] 0.63 [0.007] -0.346 [0.0] 0.067 [0.003] -3.963 [0.060].0 [0.009] 0.549 [0.005] 0.55 [0.439] 0.33 [0.04] -0.0 [0.07] 0.007 [0.033] -0.87 [0.06] -0.38 [0.004] -0.6 [0.008] -.50 [0.0].537 [0.0] -3.38 [0.038] -0.40 [0.009] -0.360 [0.009] -9.470 [3.75] -0.370 [0.093] -.47 [0.09] -0.500 [0.090] -.058 [0.05] -0.047 [0.004] 0.40 [0.007] 0.886 [0.009] -.336 [0.008] 3.649 [0.039] -0.4 [0.008] -0.04 [0.005] 7.365 [.98] 0.30 [0.085].80 [0.080] 0.44 [0.085].5 [0.00] Not: Varabl par n rgron ncat by hang of row. All rgron nclu tm fx ffct. Stanar rror n bract. For ach t of varabl th tabl rport th rult of 6 tnct rgron. 47
Appnx Tabl 3. Prvalnc of LCP PCP an VCP by Broa Inutry Catgory Broa Inutry Catgory Invocng Shar by Count Invocng Shar by Valu Local Currncy Proucr Currncy Vhcl Currncy Local Currncy Proucr Currncy Vhcl Currncy Anmal Prouct 3.5 7.6 3.9. 63.6 5. Vgtabl Prouct 3.8 65.3 30.9 6.7 69.7 3.6 Footuff 5. 70.9 4.0 33.0 53.5 3.5 Mnral Prouct 3. 84..8.3 7. 60.6 Chmcal 4.9 7.3.7 35.8 46.9 7.3 Platc/Rubbr 3.3 67.8 9.0 3. 70.9 5.9 Lathr/Fur/H 3.6 5. 44. 0.9 8.8 70.3 Woo Prouct 3.7 7. 5. 4.7 6.9.4 Txtl 3.9 49.9 46..5 3.3 56. Footwar/Hagar 4.7 47.3 48.0 7.5.4 8. Ston/Gla 3.7 58.3 38.0 6.5 56.7 36.8 Mtal 3.5 65.6 3.0. 6.7 7. Machnry/Elctrcal 3. 6.8 35.0.5 53.6 34.0 Tranportaton.9 69.3 7.8 33.9 49.7 6.3 Mcllanou 3.8 59.6 36.6 6.0 46.3 37.7 Srvc 5.9 66.9 7. 5. 53..7 48
Appnx Tabl 3 cont. Prvalnc of LCP PCP an VCP by Broa Inutry Catgory Exclung US Broa Inutry Catgory Invocng Shar by Count Invocng Shar by Valu Local Currncy Proucr Currncy Vhcl Currncy Local Currncy Proucr Currncy Vhcl Currncy Anmal Prouct 6. 8.7 75.0.5 0.7 66.8 Vgtabl Prouct 5.9 5.7 78.4 4.6 7.8 77.7 Footuff 6.9 30.8 6.3 5.4 6. 3.5 Mnral Prouct 5.3 5. 79.6 6.9 0. 8.9 Chmcal 7. 6.8 76.0 5.7 7.3 4.0 Platc/Rubbr 3.9 7.4 78.8 3.9 7.5 68.6 Lathr/Fur/H 3.8 7. 79..3 6.6 8. Woo Prouct 4.6. 74.3 3.0 6.6 60.3 Txtl 4.3 5. 80.4.3 4.9 8.8 Footwar/Hagar 4.8 5.6 79.6 6.8 7.9 85.3 Ston/Gla 4. 5.4 80.4 6.3.0 8.7 Mtal 4. 5.4 80.4 6.7 7.0 76.4 Machnry/Elctrcal 3.7 7.4 79.0 6.3 9.4 74.3 Tranportaton 3.3 9. 77.5 4.7 6.8 5.5 Mcllanou 4.3 6.0 79.8 9.8 8.8 7.4 Srvc 7. 3.0 79.9 9.6 7.6 5.8 49