The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017

The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Market Intelligence Report Reference code: IS0287MR Published: May 2013 www.timetric.com Timetric John Carpenter House 7 Carmelite Street London EC4Y 0BS United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)20 7936 6400 Fax: +44 (0)20 7336 6813 www.timetric.com

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Executive Summary The Comorian economy is highly dependent on agriculture; the sector provided employment to 80% of the labor force and accounted for 40% of GDP in 2011. Comoros is amongst the most underdeveloped countries in the world with an estimated 45% of the population living in poverty. The real GDP expanded by 2.5% in 2012, up from 2.2% in 2011, led by improvements in the global commodity market, a government restructuring initiative of public companies and sustainable expenditure on infrastructure development. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy is expected to expand at a CAGR of 3.9% over 2012 2017. The completion of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) in 2012 will see Comoros benefit from the IMF supporting multilateral debt relief and infrastructure development plans. Stable economic growth is expected to support the growth of the Comorian insurance industry, which is small and underdeveloped. Like most countries in the African region, non-life is the largest segment of the industry, with 61.6% of the gross written premium at end of 2012. Life, personal accident and health insurance segments are growing, due to an increase in population and healthcare expenditure. The insurance penetration rate is low at 0.4% at end of 2012, meaning there are significant opportunities for growth. The Central Bank of Comoros (BCC) is the regulator and supervisor of the insurance industry, the independent regulatory environment is still not developed. Rising exports are likely to fuel insurance demand Exports increased from US$69.1 million in 2007 to US$91 million in 2011 according to the World Bank. The export growth was mainly led by increased exports of food products. According to the African Development Bank, the agriculture sector accounts for 43.9% of GDP in 2010, up from 41% in 2006. Comoros is the world s largest producer of ylang ylang (an essence of perfume), and a large producer of vanilla. The growth in exports will result in an improving employment rate and is expected to fuel demand for insurance products over the forecast period. Scope for the development of micro-insurance According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), there is a significant opportunity for the development of micro-insurance in African countries, including Comoros. With a population of 346 million people and earnings between US$1.25 and US$4 per day, there are significant growth opportunities for micro-insurance products in Sub-Saharan Africa. Micro-insurance provides low-cost insurance solutions to low-income populations. Health and agriculture risks are major problems faced by the poor populations of Sub-Saharan Africa. Given the favorable demographic profile; a large young population (an estimated 53% are aged 20 or younger), a low rate of life insurance penetration (at 0.1%), micro-insurance has the opportunity to grow through private-public partnerships. The vulnerability of agriculture to weather will affect employment The agriculture sector is vulnerable to damage from weather and climate shock, which can drastically affect the agriculture output and therefore cause insecurity. The high unemployment rate (44.5% among the young population) and increased instability in world trade are major challenges facing the economy. These factors could act as a major hindrance for economic expansion and as such are likely to affect the growth of the insurance industry. The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Page 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary... 2 2 Introduction... 7 2.1 What is this Report About?... 7 2.2 Definitions... 7 2.3 Methodology... 9 3 Comorian Insurance Industry Overview... 11 3.1 The Comorian Insurance Industry... 12 3.2 Key Industry Trends and Drivers... 16 3.3 Challenges... 17 4 Industry Segmentation... 18 4.1 Life Insurance... 18 4.2 Non-Life Insurance... 26 4.2.1 Property insurance category... 47 4.2.2 Motor insurance category... 49 4.2.3 Liability insurance category... 51 4.2.4 Marine, aviation and transit insurance... 53 4.3 Personal Accident and Health Insurance Segment... 55 5 Macroeconomic Indicators... 74 5.1 Household Final Consumption Expenditure (US$ Million)... 74 5.2 Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing Output (US$ Million)... 75 5.3 GDP at Current Prices (US$ Million)... 76 5.4 Construction Output (US$ Million)... 77 5.5 Inflation Rate (%)... 78 5.6 Total Population... 79 5.7 Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Million)... 80 5.8 Exports of Goods and Services (US$ Million)... 81 6 Appendix... 82 6.1 Methodology... 82 6.2 Contact Us... 82 6.3 About Timetric... 82 6.4 Disclaimer... 83 The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Page 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Comorian Insurance Overall Written Premium by Segment (KMF Million), 2008 2017... 14 Figure 2: Comorian Insurance Industry Dynamics by Segment, 2008 2017... 15 Figure 3: Comorian Life Insurance Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 18 Figure 4: Comorian Life Insurance Paid Claims (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 19 Figure 5: Comorian Life Insurance Incurred Loss (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 20 Figure 6: Comorian Life Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 21 Figure 7: Comorian Life Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 22 Figure 8: Comorian Life Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 23 Figure 9: Comorian Life Insurance Total Investment Income (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 24 Figure 10: Comorian Life Insurance Retentions (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 25 Figure 11: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Written Premium by Category (KMF Million), 2008 2017... 28 Figure 12: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Written Premium by Category (% Share), 2012 and 2017... 28 Figure 13: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Industry Dynamics by Category, 2008 2017... 29 Figure 14: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Paid Claims (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 30 Figure 15: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Paid Claims (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 31 Figure 16: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Incurred Loss (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 32 Figure 17: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Incurred Loss by Category (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 33 Figure 18: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2008 2012... 34 Figure 19: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 35 Figure 20: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2008 2012... 36 Figure 21: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 37 Figure 22: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 38 Figure 23: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 39 Figure 24: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Total Investment Income (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 40 Figure 25: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Total Investment Income (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 41 Figure 26: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Retentions (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 42 Figure 27: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Retentions (US$ Million), 2012 2017... 43 Figure 28: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Investment (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 44 Figure 29: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Penetration (%), 2008 2012... 45 Figure 30: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Premium Per Capita (KMF), 2008 2012... 46 Figure 31: Comorian Property Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 47 Figure 32: Comorian Property Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 48 Figure 33: Comorian Motor Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 49 Figure 34: Comorian Motor Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 50 Figure 35: Comorian Liability Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 51 Figure 36: Comorian Liability Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 52 Figure 37: Comorian Marine, Aviation and Transit Insurance Category Written Premium... 53 Figure 38: Comorian Marine, Aviation and Transit Insurance Category Written Premium... 54 Figure 39: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Written Premium (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 55 Figure 40: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 56 Figure 41: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Paid Claims by Category (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 57 Figure 42: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Paid Claims (KMF Million),... 58 Figure 43: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Incurred Loss (KMF Million),... 59 Figure 44: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Incurred Loss (KMF Million),... 60 Figure 45: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2008 2012... 61 Figure 46: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 62 Figure 47: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2008 2012... 63 Figure 48: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 64 Figure 49: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million),... 65 Figure 50: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million),... 66 Figure 51: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Total Investment Income (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 67 Figure 52: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Total Investment Income... 68 Figure 53: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Retentions (KMF Million),... 69 Figure 54: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Retentions (US$ Million), 2012 2017... 70 Figure 55: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Investment (KMF Million),... 71 Figure 56: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Penetration (%), 2008 2012... 72 Figure 57: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Premium Per Capita (KMF),... 73 Figure 58: Comorian Final Consumption Expenditure (US$ Million), 2007 2011... 74 Figure 59: Comorian Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing Output (US$ Million), 2007 2011... 75 Figure 60: Comorian GDP at Current Prices (US$ Million), 2007 2011... 76 Figure 61: Comorian Construction Output (US$ Million), 2007 2011... 77 Figure 62: Comorian Inflation Rate (%), 2007 2011... 78 The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Page 4

TABLE OF CONTENTS Figure 63: Comorian Total Population (Million), 2007 2011... 79 Figure 64: Comorian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Million), 2007 2011... 80 Figure 65: Comorian Exports of Goods and Services (US$ Million), 2007 2011... 81 The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Page 5

TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Insurance Industry Definitions... 7 Table 2: Comorian Insurance Overall Written Premium by Segment (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 12 Table 3: Comorian Insurance Overall Written Premium by Segment (US$ Million), 2008 2012... 12 Table 4: Comorian Insurance Overall Written Premium by Segment (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 13 Table 5: Comorian Insurance Overall Written Premium by Segment (US$ Million), 2012 2017... 13 Table 6: Comorian Insurance Segmentation (% Share), 2008 2017... 15 Table 7: Comorian Life Insurance Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 18 Table 8: Comorian Life Insurance Paid Claims (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 19 Table 9: Comorian Life Insurance Incurred Loss (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 20 Table 10: Comorian Life Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 21 Table 11: Comorian Life Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 22 Table 12: Comorian Life Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 23 Table 13: Comorian Life Insurance Total Investment Income (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 24 Table 14: Comorian Life Insurance Retentions (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 25 Table 15: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Written Premium by Category (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 26 Table 16: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Written Premium by Category (US$ Million), 2008 2012... 26 Table 17: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Written Premium by Category (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 27 Table 18: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Written Premium by Category (US$ Million), 2012 2017... 27 Table 19: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Paid Claim (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 30 Table 20: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Paid Claim (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 31 Table 21: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Incurred Loss (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 32 Table 22: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Incurred Loss (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 33 Table 23: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2008 2012... 34 Table 24: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 35 Table 25: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2008 2012... 36 Table 26: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 37 Table 27: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 38 Table 28: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 39 Table 29: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Total Investment Income (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 40 Table 30: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Total Investment Income (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 41 Table 31: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Retentions (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 42 Table 32: Comorian Non-Life Insurance Retentions (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 43 Table 33: Comorian Property Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 47 Table 34: Comorian Property Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 48 Table 35: Comorian Motor Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 49 Table 36: Comorian Motor Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 50 Table 37: Comorian Liability Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 51 Table 38: Comorian Liability Insurance Category Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 52 Table 39: Comorian Marine, Aviation and Transit Insurance Category Written Premium... 53 Table 40: Comorian Marine, Aviation and Transit Insurance Category Written Premium... 54 Table 41: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Written Premium (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 55 Table 42: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Written Premium (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 56 Table 43: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Paid Claims (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 57 Table 44: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Paid Claims (KMF Million),... 58 Table 45: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Incurred Loss (KMF Million),... 59 Table 46: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Incurred Loss (KMF Million),... 60 Table 47: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2008 2012... 61 Table 48: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Loss Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 62 Table 49: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2008 2012... 63 Table 50: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Combined Ratio (%), 2012 2017... 64 Table 51: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million),... 65 Table 52: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Total Assets (KMF Million),... 66 Table 53: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Total Investment Income (KMF Million), 2008 2012... 67 Table 54: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Total Investment Income... 68 Table 55: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Retentions (KMF Million),... 69 Table 56: Comorian Personal Accident and Health Insurance Retentions (KMF Million), 2012 2017... 70 The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Page 6

INTRODUCTION 2 Introduction 2.1 What is this Report About? This report is the result of extensive research into the Comorian insurance industry, covering the market dynamics and competitive landscape. It provides insights on the market size of, and forecast for, the life, non-life and personal accident and health segments of the insurance industry. This report also provides an overview of the leading industry companies. 2.2 Definitions All data is collected in local currency. Conversions into US dollars (US$) of current and forecast data are made at the 2012 average annual conversion rate. Most values are displayed to one decimal place. As such, growth rates may appear inconsistent with absolute values due to rounding. For the purposes of this report, the review period is 2008 2012 and the forecast period is 2012 2017. The key insurance industry terms covered in the report are defined below: Table 1: Insurance Industry Definitions Term Ceding company Incurred loss Claim ratio Definition A primary insurer which transfers some of its insurance risk by ceding a proportion of its total written premium through a reinsurance contract. The sum of claims paid by an insurance company and the change in the provision for outstanding claims irrespective of whether or not they have been reported. Claims payable as a percentage of premium income. Commission and expenses Comprehensive loss ratio Earned premium Endowment policy Facultative reinsurance Gross claim Gross written premium Group annuity Insurance density and penetration The sum of acquisition cost and administrative cost. The acquisition cost is the percentage of a premium produced that is retained as compensation by insurance agents and brokers. The ratio of claims incurred to net premium earned. The amount of money considered to have been earned on a policy by an insurer. It is calculated by multiplying the original premium by the percentage of the policy s term which has expired without a claim being made. A scheme in which the term of the policy is defined for a specified period, such as 15, 25 or 30 years. The insurer pays the claim to the family of the assured in an event of his or her death within the policy's term or in an event of the assured surviving the policy's term. An arrangement for separate reinsurance for each risk that the primary insurer underwrites. The reinsurer can accept or reject any risk presented by the primary insurer seeking reinsurance. The amount payable by an insurance company before allowances is made for credits that may be due in the form of reinsurance, subrogation or salvage. The total amount of premiums (before deduction of reinsurance costs) customers are required to pay for insurance policies written during the year. A life insurance scheme providing annuities at retirement to a group of people under a single contract. It is usually bought by an employer for the benefit of its employees. The percentage of total written premium to the country s GDP. The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Page 7

INTRODUCTION Table 1: Insurance Industry Definitions Term Insurance fraud Definition Any act committed with the intent to obtain payment from an insurer through fraudulent means. Lapsed policy A policy which is terminated due to the non-payment of the premium. Loss ratio Liability insurance The ratio of total losses paid out in the form of claims plus adjustment expenses divided by the total earned premium. A type of insurance that covers legal claims by third parties against the insured. Loss reserve The estimated amount of claims incurred but not yet settled. Maturity claim The payment made to a policyholder at the end of the stipulated term of a term life insurance policy. Per capita premium The ratio of the total written premium to the country s total population. Premium ceded The share of premiums transferred to a reinsurance company by a primary insurer. Single-premium life insurance policy A life insurance scheme in which a lump sum is paid into the policy in return for an assured sum of money in the event of the policyholder s death. Term insurance A life insurance scheme that provides protection for a specified period, usually between five and 20 years. The policy expires without value if the insured survives the stated period. Treaty reinsurance Direct marketing E-commerce A reinsurance agreement applying to the reinsurance of a class or some classes of business, instead of an individual risk. Direct Marketing channels for insurance policies include insurance companies sales forces, telemarketing, postal mail, e-mail, call centers and mobile phones. The distribution of insurance policies online through a company or third-party website. Agencies Insurance brokers Bancassurance Other distribution channels Source: Timetric analysis Individuals and corporate agencies which are licensed to sell insurance for one or more specific insurance companies. Individuals or businesses which sell insurance policies, and advise and represent the policyholder. They differ from insurance agents, which act on the behalf of an insurance company. The partnership between a bank and an insurance company in which the insurance company uses the bank s sales channel to sell insurance. Other distribution channels include post offices, convenience stores, multi-level marketing, any channel other than agencies, direct marketing, bancassurance and the above-mentioned channels. Timetric The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Page 8

INTRODUCTION 2.3 Methodology All Timetric insurance reports are created by following a comprehensive four-stage methodology. This includes market study, research, analysis and quality control. 1) Market Study A. Standardization Definitions are specified using recognized industry classifications. The same definition is used for every country. Annual average currency exchange rates are used for the latest completed year. These are then applied across both the historical and forecast data to remove exchange rate fluctuations. B. Internal audit Review of in-house databases to gather existing data: Historic market databases and reports Company database C. Trend monitoring Review of the latest insurance companies and industry trends 2) Research A. Sources Collection of the latest market-specific data from a wide variety of industry sources: Government statistics Industry associations Company filings International organizations Insurance regulatory agencies B. Expert opinion Collation of opinion taken from leading insurance industry experts Analysis of third-party opinion and forecasts: Broker reports Media Official government sources C. Data consolidation and verification Consolidation of data and opinion to create historical datasets Creation of models to benchmark data across sectors and regions 3) Analysis A. Market forecasts Feeding forecast data into market models: Macroeconomic indicators Industry-specific drivers Analysis of insurance industry database to identify trends: Latest insurance trends Key drivers of the insurance industry The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Page 9

INTRODUCTION B. Report writing Analysis of market data Discussion of company and industry trends and issues Review of financial deals and insurance trends 4) Quality Control A. Templates Detailed process manuals Standardized report templates and accompanying style guides Complex forecasting tool used to ensure forecast methodologies are consistently applied Quality-control checklists B. Quality control process Peer review Senior-level QC Random spot checks on data integrity Benchmark checks across databases Market data cross-checked for consistency with accumulated data from: Company filings Government sources The Insurance Industry in Comoros, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2017 Page 10

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