Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016

Transcription

1 Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 BRICdata John Carpenter House 7 Carmelite Street London EC4Y 0BS United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Industry Forecast Report Reference code: TT0017MR Published: May

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Executive Summary Travel and tourism in Indonesia increased at a significant growth of X.X% rate during the review period ( ) and was supported by the country s robust economic growth, which has facilitated the expansion of the middle-class population and the rising number of inbound tourists. Indonesia has a favorable economic environment, making it an attractive destination for international travel intermediaries to invest in. According to a survey, conducted by huffingtonpost.com on January 12 th 2012, the island of Bali was named one of the world s nine most exotic honeymoon locations. Some of the advantages of Indonesia as a destination for travel intermediaries are its large population and potential customer base, its natural beauty, its prompt recovery from the global economic crisis and government policies to encourage foreign direct investment (FDI). Increasing volume of domestic and international tourism The Indonesian travel intermediaries industry is expected to grow due to the growing number of tourism activities in the country. Domestic tourism is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of X.XX% over the forecast period ( ), and primarily be driven by the country s rising levels of disposable income coupled with government incentives to modernize infrastructure. Indonesian inbound tourism is projected to grow at a CAGR of X.XX% over the forecast period, which will be driven by promotional measures undertaken by the ministry of tourism. The Indonesian travel intermediaries industry is expected to value IDRXXX.X trillion in 2016, registering a CAGR of X.XX% over the forecast period. Online travel intermediaries are changing the market dynamics The value of Indonesian online travel agents (OTAs) grew at a CAGR of XX.XX% during the review period. Indonesia s OTAs are also projected to register significant growth over the forecast period, at a CAGR of X.XX%, to value IDRXX.X trillion in The shift to purchasing travel products through the internet has been supported by the rapid development of e-commerce in Indonesia. Favorable government regulation will intensify competition The Indonesian travel intermediaries industry will become increasingly competitive for both domestic and foreign companies over the forecast period due to favorable government regulations. This will encourage more foreign companies to provide travel services in Indonesia. In order to remain competitive, companies are developing expansion strategies such as partnering with airline operators, hotels chains and car rental companies to provide attractive tour packages at reduced prices. Positive levels of business confidence and the increasing volume of business tourists will drive the market for travel management solutions The volume of business tourists in Indonesia is expected to grow significantly due to an increase in business activities and high level of FDI. Consequently, there will be high demand from Indonesian corporations for new technology platforms and travel management solutions to effectively monitor and control their traveling requirements. Both domestic and international travel companies are offering automated tools that can streamline the overall travel management needs of organizations. Antar Anda Tour & Travel, Panorama Sentrawisata and voltras.com are the leading travel management companies offering travel management solutions, which can help organizations to optimize their overall booking and reservation arrangements. Growing internet penetration will drive the demand for online travel sites With the increasing affordability of PCs, Indonesia is expected to have XX million internet users by the end of This will create significant opportunities for the travel services market as the online travel site market is expected to grow at a CAGR of X.XX% over the forecast period. The increasing demand for online travel sites will force offline travel agents and tour operators to offer online capabilities to effectively compete. Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Industry Market Environment Macroeconomic Fundamentals Consumer Confidence Market Size and Growth Potential of the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Travel Agents Tour Operators Online Travel Sites Key Demand Drivers for the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Overall Tourist Volume Tourist Volume by Type of Tourist Spending Pattern of Domestic and International Tourists Total Internet Subscription Market Entry and Expansion Strategy for Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Market Regulations Market Entry Route Expansion Strategy and Alliances Competitive Landscape of the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Travel Agents Competitive Landscape Antar Anda Indonesia Tour Operators Competitive Landscape Global Adventure Indonesia Panorama Sentrawisata Tbk PT Online Travel Agent Competitive Landscape Voltras.com Appendix About BRICdata Methodology Definitions Disclaimer Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 3

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Indonesian GDP Value at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), (Base Year 2000)... 6 Figure 2: Indonesian Inflation Rate (%), Figure 3: Indonesian Annual Average Exchange Rate (US$ IDR), Figure 4: Indonesian Consumer Confidence Index, April 2011 March Figure 5: Indonesian Annual Disposable Income (US$ Billion), Figure 6: Indonesian Unemployment Rate (%), Figure 7: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Market Size (IDR Billion), Figure 8: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Market Size (IDR Billion), Figure 9: Indonesia Travel Agents Market Size (IDR Billion), Figure 10: Indonesia Travel Agents Market Size (IDR Billion), Figure 11: Indonesia Travel Agents Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Figure 12: Indonesia Travel Agents Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Figure 13: Indonesia Tour Operators Market Size (IDR Billion), Figure 14: Indonesia Tour Operators Market Size (IDR Billion), Figure 15: Indonesia Tour Operators Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Figure 16: Indonesia Tour Operators Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Figure 17: Indonesia Online Travel Sites Total Market Size (IDR Billion), Figure 18: Indonesia Market Size of Online Travel Sites (IDR Billion), Figure 19: Indonesia Online Travel Sites Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Figure 20: Indonesia Online Travel Sites Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Figure 21: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Industry, Demand Drivers Figure 22: Indonesia Total Tourist Volume (Million), Figure 23: Indonesia Total Tourist Volume (Million), Figure 24: Indonesia Tourist Volume by Type (in Million) Vs Travel Intermediaries Industry Size (IDR Billion), Figure 25: Indonesia Total Spending Pattern of Domestic Tourists by Category (%), Figure 26: Indonesia Total Spending Pattern of Inbound Tourists by Category (%), Figure 27: Indonesian Internet Subscriptions (Million), Figure 28: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Industry Value by Market (IDR Billion), Figure 29: Indonesia Performance Indicators of Online and Offline Travel Intermediaries (IDR Billion), Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 4

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Indonesian GDP Value at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), (Base Year 2000)... 6 Table 2: Indonesian Inflation Rate (%), Table 3: Indonesian Annual Average Exchange Rate (US$ IDR), Table 4: Indonesian Annual Disposable Income (US$ Billion), Table 5: Indonesian Unemployment Rate (%), Table 6: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Total Market Size (IDR Billion), Table 7: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Market Size (IDR Billion), Table 8: Indonesia Travel Agents Market Size (IDR Billion), Table 9: Indonesia Travel Agents Market Size (IDR Billion), Table 10: Indonesia Travel Agents Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Table 11: Indonesia Travel Agents Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Table 12: Indonesia Tour Operators Market Size (IDR Billion), Table 13: Indonesia Tour Operators Market Size (IDR Billion), Table 14: Indonesia Tour Operators Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Table 15: Indonesia Tour Operators Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Table 16: Indonesia Online Travel Sites Market Size (IDR Billion), Table 17: Indonesia Market Size of Online Travel Sites (IDR Billion), Table 18: Indonesia Online Travel Sites Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Table 19: Indonesia Online Travel Sites Market Size by Revenue Source (IDR Billion), Table 20: Indonesia Total Tourist Volume (Million), Table 21: Indonesia Total Tourist Volume (Million), Table 22: Multinational Travel Intermediaries Operating in Indonesia Table 23: Antar Anda Indonesia, Key Facts Table 24: Antar Anda Indonesia, Main Services Table 25: Global Adventure Indonesia, Key Facts Table 26: Global Adventure Indonesia, Main Services Table 27: Panorama Sentrawisata Tbk PT, Key Facts Table 28: Panorama Sentrawisata Tbk PT, Main Services Table 29: Voltras.com, Key Facts Table 30: Voltras.com, Main Services Table 31: Travel and Tourism Definitions Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 5

6 US$ Billion INDONESIA TRAVEL INTERMEDIARIES INDUSTRY MARKET ENVIRONMENT 2 Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Industry Market Environment 2.1 Macroeconomic Fundamentals There are considerable growth prospects for the Indonesian travel intermediaries industry over the forecast period due to the country s strong macroeconomic fundamentals, which will generate growth for both leisure and business tourism. Indonesia is one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the world. Such economic progress has been supported by the expansion of the country s manufacturing, service and agricultural sectors. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country is projected to record a real GDP growth of X.X% in 2012 and X.X% in The following sub-sections detail the macroeconomic trends using key indicators. GDP at constant prices Indonesia s GDP at constant prices valued US$XXX.X billion in 2011, and achieved a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. The country s GDP is projected to increase at a CAGR of X.XX% over the forecast period, to reach US$XXX.X billion by The positive GDP growth will significantly increase the demand for travel intermediaries. Table 1: Indonesian GDP Value at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), (Base Year 2000) GDP XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X GDP XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X Source: Central Bank of Indonesia and BRICdata analysis Figure 1: Indonesian GDP Value at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), (Base Year 2000) % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Gross Domestic Product (US$ Billion) Growth Rate Source: Central Bank of Indonesia and BRICdata analysis Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 6

7 INDONESIA TRAVEL INTERMEDIARIES INDUSTRY MARKET ENVIRONMENT 2.2 Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence details the buying behaviors of customers and is driven by a country s level of disposable income and rate of employment. Indonesia consumer confidence index The positive trend in consumer confidence is expected to increase the overall demand for travel intermediaries and tour packages. Figure 4: Indonesian Consumer Confidence Index, April 2011 March 2012 Indonesian Consumer Confidence Index Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Source: Central Bank of Indonesia and BRICdata analysis Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 7

8 IDR Billion INDONESIA TRAVEL INTERMEDIARIES MARKET ENTRY AND EXPANSION STRATEGY 3 Market Size and Growth Potential of the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Supported by strong levels of economic growth, Indonesia s travel intermediaries industry increased from a value of IDRXX.X trillion in 2007 to IDRXXX.X trillion in 2011, recording a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. Revenues declined in 2009 due to a decrease in tourist volumes due to the global financial crisis. However, the market rebounded in 2011 with a growth of X.X% due to a rise in tourist volume. Of the total revenue generated by travel intermediaries in 2011, online travel sites accounted for the largest share of XX.X% of the industry value, with revenues of IDRXX.X trillion. Travel agents accounted for the second-largest share of XX.X% and generated revenues of IDRXX.X trillion. Online travel sites registered the largest CAGR of XX.XX% during the review period, while tour operators registered the lowest CAGR of X.XX%. Tour operator revenues valued IDRXX.X trillion in 2011, and accounted for the lowest share of XX.X%. Table 6: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Total Market Size (IDR Billion), Travel Intermediaries CAGR Online travel sites XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX.XX% Travel agents XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X X.XX% Tour operator XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X XX,XXX.X X.XX% Total XX,XXX.X XXX,XXX.X XXX,XXX.X XXX,XXX.X XXX,XXX.X X.XX% Source: BRICdata analysis Figure 7: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Market Size (IDR Billion), Online travel sites Travel Agents Tour Operator Source: BRICdata analysis Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 8

9 INDONESIA TRAVEL INTERMEDIARIES MARKET ENTRY AND EXPANSION STRATEGY 4 Key Demand Drivers for the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry The demand for travel intermediaries in Indonesia is primarily driven by four key components: the overall tourist volume, leisure and business tourists, the spending pattern of domestic and inbound tourist and internet penetration levels. The demand for tour operators and travel agents is primarily influenced by the volume of overall, business and leisure tourist and their expenditure. The following section details each of the key demand drivers in detail. Figure 21: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Industry, Demand Drivers Source: BRICdata analysis Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 9

10 Tourists volume in Million INDONESIA TRAVEL INTERMEDIARIES MARKET ENTRY AND EXPANSION STRATEGY 4.1 Overall Tourist Volume The total number of tourists in Indonesia increased from XXX.X million in 2007 to XXX.X million in 2011, after growing at a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period. The highest CAGR of X.X% and was recorded in 2010 and can be attributed to an increase in Indonesian consumer confidence due to the country s strong economic recovery following the global financial crisis. Table 20: Indonesia Total Tourist Volume (Million), Type of Tourist CAGR Domestic XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X X.XX% Inbound X.X X.X X.X X.X X.X X.XX% Outbound X.X X.X X.X X.X X.X X.XX% Overall XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X XXX.X X.XX% Source: BRICdata analysis Figure 22: Indonesia Total Tourist Volume (Million), Domestic Inbound Outbound Source: BRICdata analysis Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 10

11 IDR Billion COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE OF THE INDONESIAN TRAVEL INTERMEDIARIES INDUSTRY 5 Competitive Landscape of the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry During the review period Indonesia s travel intermediaries industry registered a remarkable shift with an ever increasing number of customers preferring to use online travel agents rather than traditional travel and tour operators. The Indonesian online travel market grew at an impressive CAGR of XX.XX% during the review period, to value IDRXX.X trillion in The travel agents market registered a CAGR of X.XX% during the review period and the tour operator market recorded a CAGR of X.XX%. The shift to using online travel sites is primarily driven by the country s rapidly developing e-commerce sector, a growing number of internet subscribers and the adoption of technology. Over the forecast period the online travel market value is expected to increase at a CAGR of X.XX%, while the travel agent market is projected to register at a CAGR of X.XX% and the tour operator market will record a CAGR of X.XX%. Figure 28: Indonesia Travel Intermediaries Industry Value by Market (IDR Billion), Online travel sites Travel Agents Tour Operator Source: BRICdata analysis Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 11

12 APPENDIX 6 Appendix 6.1 About BRICdata BRICdata publishes in-depth strategic intelligence reports that help its customers better understand opportunities in emerging markets and industry sectors. Its reports provide an independent, expert view supported by primary research and access to leading data and intelligence sources. BRICdata is a comprehensive source of insights and analysis, and publishes a broad range of reports across a number of different industry sectors, including consumer, retail, financial services, technology, telecoms and construction. BRICdata is headquartered in London with research, analysis and account management teams based across Europe, the US and Asia-Pacific. Its global research footprint is supported by a network of external associates, data partners and industry experts to give the clearest possible perspective on emerging markets. Areas of expertise BRICdata operates a dedicated, multilingual team of in-house industry analysts with significant experience of global and country-level research. BRICdata also maintains data and research partnerships with other research companies, industry experts and trade associations, along with a network of independent industry consultants and former industry participants contributing research and reports to bring additional insight and expertise in more specialist areas. BRICdata s research offering spans the following industry areas: Construction BRICdata publishes reports covering the entire construction value chain: construction materials, equipment, construction services, architectural services and interior design. It also covers the main value sectors of construction activity: commercial, infrastructure, industrial, institutional and residential. This comprehensive view of the market enables BRICdata to detail key growth sectors and countries and identify the most attractive industry opportunities. Consumer Covering a broad range of areas across the consumer goods marketplace, from interior products to FMCG, ingredients, and packaging, BRICdata offers a comprehensive insight into key consumer sectors across fast-growing markets, identifying key trends, future innovations and growth opportunities. Comprehensive data sets including unique primary survey-driven research creates accurate market forecasts and understanding of the factors driving consumption behavior. Financial Services Providing detailed insights into insurance and banking markets, BRICdata s financial services reports identify key market opportunities, emerging technologies and channel strategies. The reports provide unique data combined with local examples of best practice and expert insights into the market. Retail BRICdata maintains a comprehensive database of forecasts of retail spending, along with a series of unique indicators enabling a forward view of retailers prospects in emerging markets. The reports identify emerging concepts in retail, including the nascent online and mobile retail sectors in the BRIC countries and other emerging markets. Technology BRICdata tracks key trends and innovations, emerging technologies and markets, and the key operators in both emerging markets and technologies. Covering a range of emerging and disruptive technologies including telecoms, social media, online and mobile retailing, and telemedicine, BRICdata examines strategies for success, the state of the competitive landscape and the inherent threats and opportunities in the emerging technological economy. Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 12

13 APPENDIX 6.2 Methodology All reports are rigorously sourced and created according to a comprehensive, two-stage methodology. This includes internal audit and primary research. A) Internal audit Review of in-house databases to gather existing data: o o o Historic market databases and reports Company database projects database 1) Research B) Primary research Review of the latest company strategy and asset management trends A. Sources Collection of the latest market-specific data from a wide variety of industry sources: o Government statistics o Industry associations o Company filings o Broker reports o International organizations B. Expert opinion Collation of opinion taken from leading industry experts Analysis of third-party opinion and forecasts: o Broker reports o Industry associations o Official government sources C. Data consolidation and verification Consolidation of data and opinion to create historical datasets Creation of models to benchmark data across sectors and geographies 2) Research Analysis 3) Report Writing Market forecasts Feed of forecast data into market models: o Macroeconomic indicators o Industry-specific drivers Analysis of Market Databases to identify trends by sector: o Latest trends o Key drivers of the market Analysis of market data Discussion of company and industry trends and issues Integration of survey results Annual review of trends Standardization of market definitions using recognized industry classifications Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 13

14 APPENDIX 4) Quality Control A. Templates Detailed process manuals Standardized report templates and accompanying style guides Complex forecasting tool used to ensure forecast methodologies are consistently applied QC checklists B. QC process Peer review Senior-level QC Random spot checks on data integrity Benchmark checks across databases Market data cross-checked for consistency with accumulated data from company filings 6.3 Definitions Table 31: Travel and Tourism Definitions Terms Inbound tourist Outbound tourist Domestic tourists Leisure tourist Business tourist Health and wellness tourist Spending pattern Spending on travel and transportation Spending on lodging Travel insurance Travel agents Tour operators Online travel sites Source: BRICdata analysis Definition A tourist traveling to a different country from their country of residence. For instance, if a person living in Canada travels to France, they would be an inbound tourist to France. A tourist visiting places outside of their country of residence. For instance, a person who lives in France would be going outbound when they visit any place outside France. A tourist who spends time away from home, but within the country in which they live. For instance, a person living in France traveling to different places within France. A tourist traveling for recreational purposes such as visiting friends or relatives, holiday or entertainment. Generally, leisure trips are longer than business trips. A person traveling on business-related activities such as meetings, conferences and trade shows. Generally, business tourists' expenses are paid by the organization they work for. A person traveling within or outside the country to improve their health or wellbeing. Services sought typically include elective procedures or complex specialized procedures such as cosmetic, dental, cardiac and joint or knee replacement surgeries. The total spending by a visitor on travel, lodging, food and beverages, sightseeing, entertainment, shopping, health and wellness, and travel insurance during their visit. Includes tourist spending on travel by air, road, rail or sea, such as flight or train tickets, and car rentals. Tourist spending on accommodation, such as hotels, during their stay. Insurance which covers travel-related losses such as delays, medical expenses, loss of personal belongings and personal liability. A business which sells travel-related products and services to both leisure and business customers on behalf of suppliers. Products and services typically include package holidays, sightseeing tours, airlines, hotels, cruise lines, car rentals, railways and travel insurance companies. Some travel agents also serve as sales agents for international travel companies. Businesses that combine two or more travel services, such as transport, sightseeing, accommodation, food and entertainment, and sell them either directly to customers or through travel agents as a single product, called a package tour, for one price. These sites provide online travel bookings, travel deals, hotel guides and related services. They also offer holiday and tour packages with complete travel arrangements such as air/train/bus ticket booking, hotel accommodation, car rental and other travel-related services. Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 14

15 APPENDIX 6.4 Disclaimer All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, BRICdata. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that BRICdata delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such, BRICdata can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect. Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry Page 15