1
Murilo Ferreira President & CEO 2
We have plenty of ongoing initiatives to overcome the challenges ahead while delivering increasingly stronger free cash flow 3 From 2011 to 2014 In 2014 we have made significant progress on many fronts 2015 to 2016 2015 and 2016 bring us new challenges which we will face head on 2017 to 2018 and beyond by 2017 and 2018 we will be generating outstanding free cash flow and dividend yield
In 2014 we have made significant progress in many fronts 4 Production volumes increased in all our main commodities N4WS, an important ore body, was licensed in Carajás after many years VLOCs berthed in China SG&A and pre-operating expenses were further reduced Nine projects were completed mostly on time and on budget Net debt was reduced supporting a strong balance sheet Our values and commitments to a sustainable world were further strengthened
2015 and 2016 bring us new challenges which we will face head on 5 2015 is a challenging year Capex is still around US$10 bi Speed of iron ore price recovery is uncertain Nonetheless, we are positive about paying healthy dividends without additional debt as we: Intensify our corporate simplification, cost cutting and capex optimization initiatives Complete divestments and partnerships (e.g. coal, fertilizers and others) Consider options such as the IPO of a minority stake of our Base Metals division
by 2017 and 2018 we will be generating an outstanding free cash flow and dividend yield 6 By 2018: Capex will be US$ 5 billion Volumes will increase by about 40% in iron ore, 20% in nickel and 20% in copper Costs will decrease with higher productivity, further dilution of fixed costs and expenses Iron ore quality will support an increase in price realization Freight costs will decrease Free cash flow and dividends will reach unprecedented levels and debt will reduce gradually
Vania Somavilla Executive Director, Human Resources, Health and Safety, Sustainability and Energy 7
Vale is committed to a virtuous legacy 8 Our goal To preserve Vale s operational sustainability in the long term by fostering a culture of genuine care, social and environmental responsibility Levers Zero Harm culture Commitment to genuine care to fellow employees Collaborative work with trade associations to improve regulatory environment Proactive attitude to licensing future operations
We have been delivering on our commitments in Health & Safety, having consistently reduced our recordable injuries rate 9 Total recordable injuries frequency rate Per million hours worked 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.3 2011 2012 2013 2014 Zero Harm Culture Reinforcement of the genuine care mentality Increase in safety training for leaders Reduction of risks through technical improvements and risk control mechanisms Reinforcement of a culture of reporting for organizational learning and continuous improvement
This year we have successfully conducted the fourth edition of our global Day of Reflection... Highlights 4 th Day of Reflection 10 Day of Reflection A day in which everyone at Vale around the world: Stops to review accidents Discusses health and safety 6,838 dialogue sessions were conducted 130,067 participants 22 countries
and progressed with our community relations efforts throughout our operations Examples 11 Maranhão, Brazil Pará, Brazil Mozambique Construction of 26 railway overpasses Respect for communities Construction of schools at the Cateme community 970 communities neighbouring Vale s operations 1,800 projects and social programs to be conducted between 2014 and 2020
Last but not least, we delivered the licensing of a very important ore body (N4WS) in Carajás as part of our EIA Global efforts 12 Licensing status N4WS ore body licensed in Carajás EIA Global supports Vale's production plan in the next few years N4WS already licensed N5S license expected soon N4W Plant 2 Primary Crusher N4E Plant 2 Readiness for future licensing Sustainability sought by reducing: Water consumption Waste generation Greenhouse gases emissions N4WS Waste Dump N5W N5S
Peter Poppinga Executive Director, Ferrous Minerals 13
Vale is focused on its competitiveness 14 Initiatives Levers S11D N4WS (EIA Global) Mine Planning Optimization Blending Other initiatives Our goal Quality improvement Costs reduction To be competitive in any price scenario in a sustainable way Productivity increase Capital optimization Innovation
¹Original BRL/USD projected long-term exchange rate at 2.00 vs. revised BRL/USD exchange rate at 2.60. ²Cash cost at the port (mine, plant, railroad and port, after royalties). ³Vale s cash cost based on 9M14 S11D capex and opex reduction further increase value creation 15 S11D capex reduction Cash cost² reduction US$ billion 14% 19% US$/t 53% 48% 27% 19.7 16 17 23.6 21.2 15 11 Original capex Capex trend Current Vale³ Current Carajás³ Original S11D Expected S11D BRL depreciation¹ and change in project scope contributed to capex reduction Cash cost reduction supported by BRL depreciation, introduction of dry processing, low strip ratio and truckless technology
N4WS operating license will improve ore quality and reduce costs 16 N4WS Mine in Carajás Major impacts N4W Plant 2 Primary Crusher N4E Plant 2 N4WS is a key part of 2015 and 2016 production plans Higher quality ore Lower strip ratio N4WS Jacare Waste Dump N5W N5S N4WS area is close to Plant 2 primary crusher, reducing average transportation costs
Vale is optimizing its mine plan, reducing operating costs and deferring its Itabirites projects¹ 17 Main impacts Capex optimization Deferral by 5 years of non-approved Itabirites projects Opex Reduction Reduction of operational cost estimated at US$ 1.2 billion from 2016 to 2025 Postponement of new license requirements Decrease of Vale s dependency on environmental licensing in the short term ¹ Itabirites projects: Fábrica, Jangada, Mariana and ITM S Pico
Vale is increasing its offshore blending capacity 18 Teluk Rubiah Distribution Center Main benefits Provide competitive quality Increase commercial reach to the regional market Increase offshore blending capacity to 50 Mtpy: Teluk Rubiah (30 Mtpy) 2 Philippines FTS (20 Mtpy)
Examples of initiatives underway to increase productivity, reduce costs and control risks 19 Autonomous reclaimers Mine Natural moisture screening Truckless system Autonomous mine Beneficiation Process simplification Single building layout for screening and crushing Tailings disposal at waste stockpiles Truckless system Logistics corridors Full automatic operation of reclaimers Automated operation of trains Distributed traction technology Online wagon monitoring
Vale s iron ore production plan¹ Mt 20 327 340 376 411 453 459 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E ¹ Includes third party ores
EBITDA per ton of sinter fines² is expected to increase by US$ 10 in 2018 vs. 2014 US$/t, 2018 vs. 2014 21 2 2.5 1.5 10 4 Costs reduction Expenses reduction Quality¹/Pricing improvement CFR Freight reduction Total 1 Based on Fe content differential between 2014 and 2018 ² Excluding ore from third parties, ROM and pellets
1 Cash cost at the port (mine, plant, railroad and port, after royalties). Vale's main Iron Ore Systems ² Including dividends from MRS The main initiatives will result in significant cash cost¹ reduction US$/t 22 Northern System 21.2 16.9 Vale Total 9M14 2018E Southeastern System 23.6 19.6 Southern System² 20.9 20.1 9M14 2018E 24.5 23.5 9M14 2018E 9M14 2018E
Vale will remain competitive in any price scenario US$/t, 2018 Simulation 2018 23 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Cash cost at port¹ Moisture Expenses Freight Quality Costs and expenses adjusted for quality² 1 Cash cost at the port (mine, plant, railroad and port, after royalties) ² Landed in China Sustaining capex Cash margin Total
Our analysis¹ suggest about 220 Mt of non-competitive capacity at current prices of US$ 70/t 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 - US$/dmt, IODEX 62% CFR China US$ 90/t required to balance the market with 1,522 Mt 2015 demand² Cost Curve 2015 ~220 Mt 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Accumulated Nominal Capacity (wmt) 1 Cost curve excludes pellets and considers costs of mine, plant, railroad and port, royalties and sustaining investments. 2 Seaborne (ex-pellets) + domestic Chinese. Source: Vale, WM, CRU, AME, Steelease 24
Jennifer Maki Executive Director, Base Metals 25
Base Metals accomplishments 26 Cost & expenses reduction Production increase PTVI CoW renegotiation Cost and expenses reduced consistently in the last two years Costs and expenses decreased by 15% Copper costs decreased by 33% and nickel costs by 13% SG&A reduced by 40% and pre-operating expenses by 24% Production increased through: Successful ramp-up of operations (Onça Puma, Salobo I and Salobo II) Overall productivity gains Flow sheet optimization Uncertainty eliminated with the extension of PTVI's Contract of Work Extension of mining concession until 2045 Requirement for the divestment of additional 20% of PTVI s stake to Indonesian participants within five years
Base metals business experienced a strong opex reduction 27 Opex nickel operations US$/t Opex copper US$/t Before by-product credits After by-product credits -13% -33% 12,422 9,530 11,238 10,784 8,322 7,838 6,304 5,743 4,907 4,188 4,238 3,335 2012 2013 2014E 2012 2013 2014E
Base Metals remains focused on its overall competiveness US$ million 28 SG&A R&D Pre-Operating Expenses 1-24% -40% 200 155 120 333-56% 169 145 687 797 520 2012 2013 2014F 2012 2013 2014F 2012 2013 2014F Simplifying organization structure and reducing corporate expenses Refocusing on brownfield exploration Decreasing pre-operating expenses as a result of project ramp-ups 1 Pre-operating also includes stoppage, idle capacity, inventory normalization and other similar type expenses categorized as Other opex for the ramp-up operations such as VNC, Long Harbour, Onca Puma and Salobo
Base Metals will consistently increase its cash flow 29 Our goal Levers Further increase contribution to Vale s Free Cash Flow in the short term Productivity maximization Capital discipline Organic growth Preservation of license to operate
Ramping up Long Harbour is a priority 30 Highlights Production of first nickel cathode in July 2014 Start-up completed and rampup of subsequent downstream operations ongoing Hydrometallurgical facility to process Voisey s Bay concentrate and produce 50,000 tpy of nickel and associated copper and cobalt Start-up of integrated plant in 1Q15 Feed independence from PTVI to be achieved in 4Q15
Ramp-up continues at VNC 31 Highlights Ramp up to about 60-65% of nameplate capacity in 2015 through improved preventive maintenance and operational reliability Achieve an EBITDA neutral position in 2015 Rebuild and maintain healthy stakeholder relationships Complete major shutdown of acid plant (June-July) and implement final ocean outfall pipeline solution Reduce contractors services costs
The Indonesia Growth Plan (IGP) 1 is a staged investment approach 32 PTVI operations Highlights PTVI is the largest nickel laterite smelter in the world with one of the lowest cash costs in the industry Ore from our open-pit mines are processed into an nickel matte intermediate IGP focused on a phased approach to increase future production Stage 1 increases annual nickel production from 75 kt to 90 kt Stage 2 increases nickel in matte production by 25 kt via the 5 th line expansion to 115 kt 1 Subject to Board of Directors approval.
Base Metals production has increased with the ramp-ups and productivity gains Nickel production kt Copper production kt 33 237 260 274 303 316 292 370 390 449 450 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Our initiatives are expected to further increase Base Metals EBITDA 34 EBITDA - Base Metals operations US$ billion 4.0¹-6.0 Highlights Base metals has the potential to reach an EBITDA of US$ 4.0 to 6.0 billion based on: Reductions of fixed cost 2.5 1.6 0.6 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Successful ramp-ups and furnace restarts (e.g. Onça Puma and Long Harbour) to further strengthen our position in nickel Maintenance of the Indonesian ore export ban to support nickel prices Strong performance in copper through optimizations in Sudbury and brownfield expansions in Brazil 1 Based on nickel prices of US$ 21,000/t and copper prices of US$ 6,600/t
Copper and nickel market overview 35 Copper Physical market remains relatively tight despite credit situation in China Exchange stocks remain low Mine growth slowing in 2014 Scrap tightness Upper end of cost curve helping to support price Forecast for 2017 and beyond remains positive with continued demand growth along with long-term supply challenges Nickel Weak prices reflect current Chinese de-stocking rather than future deficits De-stocking impacting15-20% of world demand in recent months NPI production cuts in October and November as prices below production costs November ore deliveries into China falling with Filipino rainy season Market to enter deficit as high grade ore stocks draw down Market improvement expected in coming months as Chinese de-stocking runs its course with significant declines in inventory
Roger Downey Executive Director, Fertilizers and Coal 36
Brazil is uniquely positioned to respond to the increasing demand for food 37 Arable Land: Potential for expansion Climate: Temperature and rainfall EU Argentina Russia Brazil USA Australia China Canada India Colombia Indonesia Peru Water: Availability of fresh water
supported by its arable land potential and increasing fertilizer intensity 38 Nutrient intensity kg nutrients / ha Arable land expansion potential M ha, 2010 Planted area Expansion potential Pasture with agriculture potential USA 188 81 India 169 306 Russia 132 88 133 155 185 201 EU 116 144 China 138 India 2012 Brazil 2010 Brazil 2012 USA 2006-2012 China 2012 Brazil 58 106 222 Source: Company data, USGS, IFA, FAO, World Bank
Fertilizer consumption in Brazil could increase threefold 39 Current consumption Mt nutrients 12.6 Growth factor (Multiplier) x = 3.1 Potential demand Mt nutrients 38.7 x Nutrient intensity at USA levels (1.09x) Arable land expansion potential (2.83x) Potential growth in fertilizer consumption of about 3 times from about 13Mt to 39Mt
Mega farms will account for 50% of the growth in planted area, further increasing nutrient intensity 40 Mega Farms Cerrado planted area by group In million hectares Mega Farms share of area 5% 18% 29% CAGR 13-23 MA/PI 39.2 4% Mega Farms over 30 kha MT MS GO BA 15.8 12.3 2.4 25.9 13.0 4.7 3.6 4.7 13.7 7.8 6.3 11.4 1% 5% 6% 9% 2003 2013 2023E Others Pool Big Farms Mega Farms Source: Agroconsult
... and Vale assets are strategically located to serve that region Nitrogen Phosphate Potash TIPLAM port¹ Access to the main railway and highway routes to serve the highest-growth agricultural region in Brazil 41 TIPLAM provides a unique gateway for competitively sourced imported raw material (e.g. sulphur and ammonia) and products (e.g. Bayóvar and future options) ¹ 51% VLI 49% Vale Fertilizantes
We have been doing our homework in cost-cutting, commercial initiatives and capital allocation Operating and commercial initiatives Capital Allocation 42 US$ million per year % of EBITDA¹ Cost Reduction Commercial Iniatives Divestment of non core assets Araucaria nitrogen plant Fosbrasil 36% 41% Halting the Rio Colorado Project 121 131 Operating & Commercial 23 51 Optimization of product portfolio from 11 to 6 98 80 products in phosphates Rationalization of production flow sheet, adjusting quality of products to better serve the market Use of Bayóvar rock in Cubatão chemical units Transfer of TSP, SSP and DCP plants from 2013 2014E Cubatão to Uberaba to reduce movement costs ¹ Consider adjusted EBITDA (excluding impairment and expenses of Rio Colorado Project)
Galib Chaim Executive Director, Capital Projects 43
Main projects delivered for start-up in 2014 44 Vargem Grande Itabiritos 5th Line - Brucutu Status: Start-up 4Q14 Capacity: 10 Mtpy (PF) Total Capex: US$ 1.91 billion Status: Start-up 4Q14 Capacity: 9.5 Mtpy (PF/SF) Total Capex: US$ 0.42 billion Usina VIII - Pelletizing Plant Teluk Rubiah Distribution Center Status: Ramp-up (Start-up 2Q14) Capacity: 7.5 Mtpy Total Capex: US$ 1.32 billion Status: Ramp-up (Start-up 3Q14) Capacity: 30 Mtpy Total Capex: US$ 1.37 billion
Main projects delivered for start-up in 2014 45 Serra Leste CLN S11D Railway - 9 Segments Status: Ramp-up (Start-up 3Q14) Capacity: 6 Mtpy Total Capex: US$ 0.46 billion Status: Start-up 2Q14 9 Segments totaling 70 Km Additional Capacity: 13 Mtpy (141 Mtpy) Salobo II Nacala Corridor - Greenfield Railway / Onshore Status: Ramp-up (Start-up 2Q14) Capacity: 100,000 tpy Total Capex: US$ 1.71 billion Status: 95% progress 2 Rail loops + 3 sections (230km) Completion: December 2014 First train unloading November 25 th 2014
Projects to be delivered for start-up in 2015-2016 Note: all data up to October/2014 46 Conceição Itabiritos II Cauê Itabiritos Status: Mechanical Completion Start-up: 1H15 Capacity: 19.48 Mtpy Approved Capex: US$ 1.19 billion Executed Capex: US$ 0.85 billion Physical progress 73% Start-up: 2H15 Capacity: 23.74 Mtpy Approved Capex: US$ 1.50 billion Executed Capex: US$ 0.63 billion Moatize II - Mine and Plant Expansion Nacala Corridor - Port Offshore Physical progress 73% Start-up: 2H15 Capacity: 11 Mtpy Approved Capex: US$ 2.07 billion Executed Capex: US$ 1.29 billion Start-up: Railway 4Q14 / Port 1Q15 Capacity: 18Mtpy Approved Capex: US$ 4.44 billion Executed Capex: US$ 2.67 billion
Projects for start-up in 2016-2018 S11D Mine and Plant Note: all data up to October/2014 47 Infrastructure Pre-stripping Physical progress: 55% Start-up: 2H16 Plant overview Module transportation Capacity: 90 Mtpy Approved Capex: US$ 8.09 billion Capex trend: US$ 6.7-7.1 billion Executed Capex: US$ 3.30 billion
Projects for start-up in 2016-2018 CLN S11D Logistics Note: all data up to October/2014 48 Railway Spur - Tunnel 1 EEFC - Segment 13-14 S11D Onshore - Stockyard Pier IV - North Physical progress: 28% Start-up: 1H14 to 2H18 Additional Capacity: 80 Mtpy Approved Capex: US$ 11.58 billion Capex trend: US$ 9.3-9.9 billion Executed Capex: US$ 2.16 billion Total of segments: 48 (9 concluded)
Luciano Siani Chief Financial Officer 49
¹ Net of depreciation We delivered around US$ 1.2 billion of recurrent savings in 2014 US$ billion 50 SG&A¹ -61% Capex -26% Growth Sustaining 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.9 2011 2012 2013 2014E 16.3 16.2 14.2 12,0 4.6 4.6 4.6 3.9 11.7 11.6 9.6 8.1 2011 2012 2013 2014E R&D Pre-operating and stoppage expenses¹ -56% -33% 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.6 0.9 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2011 2012 2013 2014E
And we will face the challenges head on 51 Our goal Ensure project execution during 2015 and 2016 and pay healthy dividends without increasing leverage Levers Capex discipline Cost reduction Balance sheet optimization Debt & liquidity management Divestitures FX gains
Facing the challenges (1/5): Reducing our capex in the upcoming years US$ billion Capex reduction levers Projects prioritization Scope optimization FX gains Tight project management Procurement savings 16.3 16.2 4.6 4.6 11.7 11.6 14.2 4.6 9.6 12.0 3.9 8.1 10.2 3.8 6.4 7.6 4.0 3.6 6.0 4.0 2.0 Project execution Sustaining capex Approved projects only 4.9 4.9 4.0 4.0 0.9 0.9 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 52
Facing the challenges (2/5): Completing our ongoing projects US$ billion 53 Main capital projects 2014E 2015E 2016E Iron ore S11D 2.5 3.7 3.0 Conceição Itabiritos I & II 0.3 0.2 0.1 Cauê Itabiritos 0.4 0.4 0.2 Distribution network ¹ 0.4 0.1 0.1 Vargem Grande Itabiritos 0.4 0.1 0.0 Expansion projects² 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total 4.4 4.7 3.4 Coal Moatize II / Nacala 2.2 1.3 0.3 Copper Salobo II 0.4 0.1 0.0 Main projects capex 7.0 6.0 3.6 Total projects capex 8.1 6.4 3.6 By 2016, almost all project-related Capex (US$ 3 bi out of 3.6 bi ) is for S11D ¹ Includes Teluk Rubiah and shipping ² Includes Serra Leste, Additional 40 Mtpy, CLN150 and 5 th Line of Brucutu
Facing the challenges (3/5): Optimizing working capital US$ billion, year end 54 10.7 8.5 6.9 Next opportunity: Finished products inventory 4.8 4.3 Levers Accounts receivable Accounts payable Parts inventory Advances to suppliers 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Sep 14) 2015 (Target)
Facing the challenges (4/5): Unlocking cash from potential divestitures 55 Initiatives Coal JV Redeemable shares IPO Base Metals Cash Impact Strategic rationale Improve the balance sheet and eliminate future funding needs while reducing exposure to the project risk Release cash flow through the issuance of redeemable non-voting shares on specific assets Unlock value by selling a minority stake in the business if market conditions are appropriate Fertilizers JV 15 VLOCs MRS MRN PTVI shares sale Unlock value and improve the balance sheet Improve the balance sheet while guaranteeing longterm, low cost freight agreements Unlock value by the disposal of Vale voting shares sterilized by Brazilian anti-trust agencies Focus on core business Comply with CoW requirements Potential from US$5bi to US$10bi Other non-core assets Focus on core business
Facing the challenges (5/5): Capturing the FX gains from the weakening of the Brazilian currency Simulation Projects 2015 56 Potential gains in 2015 US$ bi 3.0 x BRL denominated US$ bi 20.3 + CAPEX BRL denominated US$ bi 7.7 Cost + Expenses BRL denominated US$ bi 12.6 x x CAPEX 2015 US$ bi 10.2 BRL denominated % 75 BRL denominated % 51 Cost + Expenses US$ bi 24.8 + + US$ bi 6.4 Sustaining 2015 US$ bi 3.8 Costs LTM14² US$ bi 21.1 Expenses LTM14² BRL depreciation¹ US$ bi 3.7 % 0,10 15.0 ¹ Similar to the current depreciation from 3Q14 to 4Q14 ² Net of depreciation, LTM14 = Last twelve months ended in September 30, 2014
Ensuring a healthy FCF for 2015 US$ billion 13.5 10.2 Coal JV Redeemable shares IPO Base Metals Fertilizers JV 15 VLOCs MRS MRN PTVI shares sale Other non-core assets 57 5 10 6 11 1.6 0.2 0.5 0.5 Analysts' average EBITDA 2015¹ CAPEX LTM 2014 interest payment Income tax REFIS estimated Changes in Working Capital Sale of assets FCF 1 Average of 12 banks, as of 11/20/14
¹ As of September 30, 2014. Including hedge transactions. ² US$ 300M reduction in October from Vale Canada bond redemption ³ Amount not yet withdrawn. Managing debt and liquidity US$ billion 58 Debt amortization schedule¹ Committed Credit Facilities³ 29.0 2.9 9.1 22.7 5.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 2.0 2.4 4Q14 2015² 2016 2017 2018 onwards Total Gross debt Revolving credit lines Non-project financing related Project financing related Total 78% of our debt settlement will occur after 2018 US$ 9.1 billion available in credit lines
Vision 2018 Harvesting the fruit US$ billion 59 4-6 >1 >1 22-28 16-20 5.0 EBITDA Iron Ore EBITDA Base Metals EBITDA Coal EBITDA Fertilizers EBITDA Total Capex 1 Assumes cash cost landed in China of US$45 dmt and IODEX ranging from US$ 80-90/t
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