The rise of new e commerce channels: Shoppers Delight or Gangsters Paradise? 2011
Introduction from Michael Norton Managing Director, PayPoint.net As evidenced by the IMRG in May 2011, the online retail industry is going from strength to strength and as consumers continue to conduct more of their lives online, the use of smartphones and social networking sites will inevitably have an impact on consumers shopping experience. While mobile and social commerce will inevitably present new and exciting opportunities for retailers and consumers alike, the potential risks are less well understood. Our report focuses on the opportunities for online businesses to grow but also the risks to be aware of, particularly in terms of fraud as criminals look to take advantage and exploit the security flaws in these new payment channels. The findings show that while they present an opportunity for business growth the total value of online sales will increase by 4.5 per cent annually by 2015 they also increase the economic impact of e-commerce by 30 million over the same four years. These new ways of shopping could become victims of their own success, for all the wrong reasons, if retailers fail to manage fraud correctly. Rather than offering more choices for shopping, retailers that fall victim to fraud may shut down risky mobile and social shopping sites. I hope that you enjoy reading our report and that it helps you be one step ahead when adopting new payment channels. We commissioned the Centre for Economic and Business Research to calculate the economic impact of mobile and social media commerce, both in terms of internet retail sales and its associated online fraud implications.
PayPoint.net tips for online retailers Michael Norton offers the following advice for retailers looking to expand their online offering with these new payment channels: Ensure there is a robust, traditional e-commerce fraud prevention system in place, so that best practice strategies can be rolled out to the new shopping platforms. Understand the difference between conventional card not present fraud and that which is possible via mobile and social media. These channels are relatively new, which means that there is less history available to monitor the potential fraud risk associated with a transaction. Consumers using them provide less personal data than through traditional e-commerce sites, so the retailer has less criteria to check against. This means that each transaction has a smaller footprint and e- retailers will need to be more vigilant of the customer information they have access to. Due to the nature of these new channels, with less information to hand, monitoring fraud against a detailed set of criteria, with a transparent view of the all the money coming in and out of the business in real-time, will help identify any suspicious activity. Many retailers may wish to consider outsourcing the online payment platform to an expert as this will enable them to focus on their core business offering, while taking the hassle out of monitoring e-commerce fraud. Accept that investment in fraud protection could prove costly, while these new shopping channels are in the early stages of adoption. The returns will come as consumers gravitate towards safer, less risky brands. Before investing in developing new retail offerings, remember that not all products are suited to being sold via these new channels.
Executive Summary Summary This report presents Cebr s analysis into the future of internet retail sales and the implications for e- commerce fraud in the UK over the next four years. The report uses data from the Office for National Statistics, Financial Fraud Action UK and an Opinion Matters survey commissioned by PayPoint.net to forecast the cost of e-commerce fraud in the UK over the years to 2015. Key findings After showing continuous year-on-year increases, the total value of losses from e-commerce fraud fell by 16% in 2009 as businesses adopted more secure payment mechanisms. Cebr estimates that e- commerce fraud fell by a further 4% in 2010. However, we expect e-commerce fraud to start rising again from 2011 onwards, as the adoption of new shopping platforms namely mobile phones and social networking sites create new opportunities for fraudsters. While these innovative platforms have opened up new possibilities for consumers and retailers, they are likely to be vulnerable to fraud during the early years of adoption, given that it takes time to discover and resolve underlying security issues. We thus expect losses from e-commerce fraud to rise from 165.2 million in 2011 to 195.3 million by 2015 an increase of 18%. In addition to consumers losing millions of pounds each year due to online fraud, there is clear evidence that online businesses also lose out; in an Opinion Matters survey commissioned by PayPoint.net, over one in three respondents reported that they were probably or definitely purchasing fewer goods online than they would like due to the risk of fraud. This would suggest that the adoption of more secure payment mechanisms by businesses could lead to greater volumes of online retail sales, by alleviating consumer concerns over the threat of fraud.
Online retail worth 22.3 billion one in ten pounds is spent via the internet In 2010, internet retail sales totalled 22.3 billion, compared to 9.1 billion in 2006. This represents average annualised growth of 25.1% over this period. A total of 30.1 million (60%) of adults used the internet every day in 2010 almost double the amount in 2006. The rise of online retail has been driven by greater internet access via broadband and mobile phone services. A total of 12.8 million (31%) of internet users connect via mobile phone. The adoption of mobile phone technology is being led by 16 to 24 year olds, with 44% of this age group using this platform to access the internet. Social networking is proving to be popular, with 17.8 million (43%) of internet users using these sites. A total of 75% of 16 to 24 year olds use these platforms. Proportion of retail sales via internet (LHS), and annual internet retail sales (RHS), billions of pounds 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Internet sales % of total sales Source: Cebr analysis, Office for National Statistics 25 20 15 10 5 0
Online fraud costs 147 million per year, though fraud screening tools have hampered fraudsters activities in recent years Card-not-present fraud occurs via the use of remote payment processes over the internet, by telephone and by post. Using data from Financial Fraud Action UK, Cebr estimates that this type of fraud led to losses of 292.5 million in 2010, of which 147.0 million (50%) can be attributable to e-commerce up from 117.1 million in 2005. According to Financial Fraud Action UK, e- commerce fraud fell by 16% in 2009, and Cebr estimates it to have fallen by a further 4% in 2010. The recent decline in e-commerce fraud is related to the increased use of fraud screening detection tools such as Verified by Visa and Mastercard SecureCode. Cebr estimates that fraud screening detection tools saved up to 38.9 million in 2009. E-commerce fraud, millions of pounds lost 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 E-commerce fraud Source: Cebr analysis, Financial Fraud Action UK
Social media and mobile phone technology will provide future growth areas for internet retail According to an Opinion Matters survey commissioned by PayPoint.net, 23.5 million (78%) internet users have made online purchases in the last 12 months. Online shopping platforms that use mobile phone browsers or apps are expected to see the fastest growth in usage over the next 2-3 years, as shown in the figure opposite. Around 5.5 million (18%) of internet users purchase products via mobile phone. We forecast this to rise to 10.5 million (30%) by 2015. Social media is expected to be a significant growth area with currently around 7.6 million (25%) users using the platform for shopping purposes. We forecast this to reach 10.5 million (30%) by 2015. Percentage of respondents using online shopping platforms, last 12 months versus expected over next 2-3 years 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Websites via PC or laptop Social networks Mobile phone Non-shopper Last 12 months Next 2-3 years Source: Cebr analysis, Opinion Matters survey
but at the cost of increased levels of e-commerce fraud The value of e-commerce fraud will grow from 165.2 million in 2011 to 195.3 million by 2015 registering annual growth of 4.3%. Of this, fraud in the relatively new social media and mobile phone shopping platforms will lead to losses of 24 million by 2015 accounting for most of the increase in losses due to fraud over the next four years. Cebr estimates that internet retail sales values will grow from 28.3 billion in 2011 to 33.7 billion by 2015 representing annual growth of 4.5%. Internet retail sales are forecast to reach 9.9% of UK retail sales by 2015, from 9.1% today. Cebr forecasts a total of five million and 2.9 million additional online shoppers using mobile phone commerce and social network commerce respectively by 2015. These new platforms will raise e-commerce fraud s share of all card-not-present fraud from 51% in 2011 to 54% by 2015. Percentage of total retail sales via the internet (LHS) and E-commerce fraud (RHS), millions of pounds Source: Cebr analysis, Financial Fraud Action UK The. rise of new e-commerce channels: Shoppers delight or Gangsters Paradise? 10.0% 9.8% 9.6% 9.4% 9.2% 9.0% 8.8% 8.6% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % internet retail sales E-commerce fraud 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 160 155 150
The risk of fraud holds back online retail sales investment in secure payment methods can realise returns for businesses According to an Opinion Matters survey commissioned by PayPoint.net, there is clear evidence that the risk of fraud keeps the value of retail sales structurally lower than would otherwise be the case. Over one in three of those surveyed (34.5%) said that they were definitely or probably making fewer purchases online than they would like, due to concerns over online fraud. This is perhaps unsurprising given that the same survey shows that nearly four in 10 (38.5%) of those surveyed reported either being victims of online card fraud themselves or knowing someone who has been a victim. The clear implication from the survey is that, by guaranteeing online security and providing safe payment mechanisms, businesses can win over consumers and realise greater retail sales. Percentage of survey respondents reporting to have been a victim of online card fraud or to have known someone who has been a victim 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% I haven't been a victim but I know people who have been I have been a victim I have been a victim and people I know have been victims Source: Cebr analysis, Opinion Matters Survey
Cebr data analysis Year Internet retail sales ( m) % of total retail sales Value of card-notpresent fraud ( m) Value of e- commerce fraud ( m) 2006 9,149 2.9% 212.7 154.5 2007 9,978 3.6% 290.5 178.3 2008 14,962 5.3% 328.4 181.7 2009 18,478 6.5% 266.4 153.2 2010 22,250 7.6% 296.8 147.0 2011 28,379 9.1% 320.2 165.2 2012 29,409 9.3% 329.6 172.0 2013 30,773 9.5% 341.1 179.7 2014 32,173 9.7% 352.6 187.4 2015 33,653 9.9% 364.6 195.3 * Forecast values in bold Source: Cebr analysis, Financial Fraud Action UK, Opinion survey
Disclaimer Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this report, neither the authors nor the Centre for Economics and Business Research Ltd will be liable for any loss or damages incurred through the use of this report. The main authors of this report are Cebr economists Scott Corfe and Shehan Mohamed. Cebr contact Email: scorfe@cebr.com, smohamed@cebr.com Phone: +44 (0)20 7324 2861 London, June 2011