ICRA RATING FEATURE Financial ICRA RATING Sector FEATURE Ratings Indian General Insurance Industry Industry Outlook and Performance Review Contacts: Karthik Srinivasan +91 22 6179 6365 karthiks@icraindia.com Vibha Batra +91 124 4545 302 vibha@icraindia.com Reversal in declining growth in General Insurance industry closely linked to economic recovery of the country; improvement in profitability continues September 2014
Overview This ICRA paper on the General Insurance Sector in India analyses the performance of 13 General Insurance Companies 1 (comprising four insurers from the Public Sector and nine from the Private Sector) collectively representing around 90% of the Industry-wide Gross Premium Written (excluding ECGC and AIC of India) in FY13 and FY14. The key highlights of the report are as under The growth of the Gross Premium Written by the Indian general insurance industry for FY14 reduced to 13% to Rs 729 billion 2, lower than ICRA s estimate of 15%, with a sharp correction in growth observed in H2FY14. Even the private sector players, who had been growing at 20-25% for the last few years, witnessed a decline in growth to ~15%, but their share continued to increase to 47% in FY14 from 46% in FY13 (40% in FY08). This trend is likely to continue as the private players increase their footprints and further supported by entry of new players. The decline in industry growth in FY14 has been across segments both retail and corporate. While corporate segments like fire, engineering and marine insurance were directly impacted by the slowdown in the economy with lower capex and investments, the retail segments like motor insurance (the largest general insurance segment with share of ~47%) saw a steep decline in growth from more than 30% in FY12 to less than 15% in FY14. It was impacted by the slowdown in the auto sector, though there was support from annual hikes in premium tariff in the motor third party insurance segment for commercial vehicles. The growth in all these segments is likely to improve if there is an improvement in Indian GDP. The Health & Personal Accident segment is still attracting new exclusive players with a lot of growth potential seen. With high co-relation between the growth rates in General Insurance Premiums and the National GDP growth rates, we expect the industry growth rates to have bottomed with likely improvement in Indian GDP growth. Accordingly ICRA estimates the General Insurance Industry to grow at 12-14% in FY15. The reducing net claims ratio and management expenses along with steady net commissions have helped the underwriting performance for the General Insurance industry in the past few years. But despite the improvement in performance, the General Insurance industry in India continues to incur losses at an underwriting level and overall profitability is supported by the investment income. While the investment 1 Public Sector general Insurers considered by ICRA include The Oriental Insurance Company Limited, The New India Assurance Company Limited, National Insurance Company Limited and United India Insurance Company Limited. Private Sector general insurance companies include Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Company Limited, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited, HDFC ERGO General Insurance Company Limited, Tata AIG General Insurance Company Limited, Royal Sundaram Alliance Insurance Company Limited, SBI General Insurance Company Limited, Reliance General Insurance Company Limited, IFFCO TOKIO General Insurance Company Limited and Cholamandalam MS General Insurance Company Limited 2 Excludes ECGC and AIC of India ICRA Rating Services Page 2
income (including realized gains from sale of investments) for the industry has remained stable ~24% for the last three years, it has been steadily increasing for the private sector player and moderating for the public sector players. Contribution to Profitability Underwriting vs. Investment Income Public Sector (4 entities) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Underwriting Surplus/Net Premium Earned -38.1% -24.8% -17.4% -16.0% Net Investment Income/Net Premium Earned 17.9% 17.6% 17.4% 17.1% Realized Gain/Net Premium Earned 20.8% 11.9% 11.7% 10.7% Net Profit After Tax/ Net Premium Earned -0.8% 4.6% 8.8% 8.7% Private Sector (9 entities) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Underwriting Surplus/Net Premium Earned -19.1% -20.3% -7.6% -6.0% Net Investment Income/Net Premium Earned 12.4% 13.5% 14.5% 15.7% Realized Gain/Net Premium Earned 1.9% 0.9% 0.8% 1.3% Net Profit After Tax/ Net Premium Earned -5.1% -6.8% 5.8% 8.8% Source: Company reports, ICRA Analysis The Indian General Insurance industry would require a capital of around Rs 500-700 billion equity capital if the current penetration levels of around 0.8% were to approach the global average of around 2.8% over a period of five years. However, the actual capital requirements will be dependent on the business mix, growth rates and claims experience. ICRA estimates that to maintain a solvency at 1.75 times (as compared to the regulatory requirement of 1.5 times from March 2014) while growing at a CAGR of 15-20% and maintaining similar claims records, the General Insurance industry would require around Rs 75-175 billion of capital over the next five years with the requirement for the private sector at around Rs 45-80 billion. ICRA Rating Services Page 3
Expected RoE for next 5 years ICRA Industry Update The capital requirement under various scenarios are summarized below: Rs Billion GPW CAGR for next 5 years 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 82 167 268 389 531 5% 26 106 208 328 471 7.5% 14 72 173 294 436 10% 2 34 136 256 399 15% - 3 51 172 314 20% - - 3 73 216 Source: ICRA Analysis The capital requirement of the public sector players may be met by the sizeable unrealised capital gains of Rs ~ Rs 384 billion as on March 2014 under the Fair Value Change Account. However, the private sector players will need an external infusion of equity and will draw support from their domestic and foreign promoters. The proposed hike in FDI limit in the insurance sector from 26% to 49% (subject to Parliamentary approvals) could aid private sector players meet their future capital requirements. Capitalization profile measured as the Solvency Ratio for Insurance players remain stronger for the PSUs compared to the private players. Reported Solvency Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Median for All (13 entities) 1.76 1.56 1.39 1.61 1.62 Median for PSUs (4 entities) 2.51 2.12 1.69 1.88 2.05 Median for Private Players (9 entities) 1.76 1.56 1.39 1.61 1.62 Source: Company Reports, ICRA Analysis ICRA expects the improvement in claim settlement to continue as higher competition and greater participation of foreign players improve operating efficiency and client servicing. The industry s ability to achieve profitability at an underwriting level and raise adequate capital for sustaining growth along with regulatory changes will remain key sensitivities for the sector. ICRA Rating Services Page 4
Contents 1. Executive Summary... 1 2. Performance Analysis and Outlook...4 3. PSU players continue to enjoy the large share of equity investment built up over the years...12 4. Capitalisation profile improve marginally in FY14...14 5. Systemic Claims settlement ratios improve supported by private sector players...17 6. Agency channel remains strong, while share of brokers increase in sourcing business...18 Annexure 1: Combined Financial Indicators for the 13 insurers used in the analysis...19 Annexure 2: Entity wise Financial Indicators...21 Annexure 3: Market Share based on GPW...29 ICRA Rating Services Page 5
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