ALM with ultra-low interest rates -(Life) Insurance Perspective
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1 ALM with ultra-low interest rates -(Life) Insurance Perspective Dario Focarelli Director General ANIA Member of the Advisory Scientific Committee of the ESRB Visiting Professor, Risk Management and Insurance, 'La Sapienza' Roma Adjunct Professor, 'Tanaka Business School', Imperial College London 11 March 2015 SUERF/OeNB/BWG Conference: ALM with ultra-low interest rates
2 Agenda The European Insurance Industry Risk Framework The(Italian) life Insurance Industry case Main challenges and new business perspectives 11 March
3 The European Insurance Industry Risk Framework 11 March 2015
4 The European Insurance Industry Risk Framework (1/7) Key facts Almost three quarters of individual premiums related to traditional life products, which offer capital and/ or return guarantees while the remaining individual life premium income stemmed mainly from unit-linked products, in which the risk is borne by the policyholder 11 March
5 The European Insurance Industry Risk Framework (2/7) Key facts 11 March
6 The European Insurance Industry Risk Framework (3/7) EIOPA Risk Assessment The risk from the low interest rate environment continues to be the major risk factor, both for insurance and pension companies alike (EIOPARiskAssessment *,Dec. 14) (*) From EIOPA s regular bottom-up surveys among national supervisors to rank the key risks to financial stability for the insurance 11 March
7 The European Insurance Industry Risk Framework (4/7) EIOPA Risk Assessment Guaranteed rates have tended to decrease in the period in order to adapt the new business to a low yield environment.) Main reasons: How to cope with these risks without failing commitment with policyholders and maintaining competitiveness? (*) Source: EIOPA Risk Assessment(Dec. 14) 11 March
8 The European Insurance Industry Risk Framework (5/7) EIOPA (Low Yield) Stress Test exercise As a follow up of its Opinion on Supervisory Response to a Prolonged Low Interest Rate Environment* it was agreed that EIOPA would carry out a stocktaking exercise in 2014 in order to test sustainability of the financial guarantees embedded in life products. Low Yield Stress Test Module Inverse scenario Japanese-like scenario Test the effects of a prolonged period of low interest rates on European (life) insurance companies Test impacts on: - SCR ratio: Eligible Own Funds(post stress)/scr(pre stress) - Exposure on interest rates(durations, cash flow matching); - Profitability(IRR) (*) 28 February March
9 The European Insurance Industry Risk Framework (6/7) MCEV/EV sensitivity to a decline of 100 basis point Source: Sigma March
10 The European Insurance Industry Risk Framework (7/7) EIOPA (Low Yield) Stress Test exercise Global Stress Test result The European insurance industry is in general sufficiently capitalized in Solvency II terms The Italian insurance industry shows a «Japanese-like scenario» level of capitalization slightly better than the European average «Japanese-like» scenario Europe Italy SCR ratio 100% 76% 83% SCR ratio < 100% 24% 17% Sample: 6 individual undertakings 11 March
11 The Italian (life) Insurance Industry case
12 The Italian (life) Insurance Industry case (1/8) Overall Life Industry trend Insurance policies represent almost 12% of total financial assets of Italian households 11 March
13 The Italian (life) Insurance Industry case (2/8) Overall Life Industry trend InItalyrisksduetoprolongedlowinterestrates areperceivedtobe lowerthan in other European countries. This is mainly due to specific product features and prudent asset allocation , , Total life premiums (mn; lhs) Goverment Bonds yield (annual average; rhs) ,0 Segregegated funds gross yield (rhs) , , , ,0 11 March
14 The Italian (life) Insurance Industry case (3/8) Main Drivers competitiveness of segregated funds In Italy, interest rate sensitive life insurance business includes withprofits endowment and whole life policies (polizze rivalutabili), most of which are single premium business The maximum guarantee is fixed at 60% of the average Italian 10-year government bond yield. The maximum guarantee level has generally been in the last 2 years between 0 and 1% with cliquet mechanism, where the guarantee is paid out at maturity instead of annually. Rates of return are computed on the basis of book value and realized value. In particular, the return is calculated annually as the ratio of the sum of coupons, dividends and realized capital gains to the average stock of fund assets, and is allocated, in whole or in part, to the accrued value of the contractual benefits. Surrender charges vary by company, but generally decrease with the duration of the contract. However, there is no adjustment for market value of the assets backing these policies. 11 March
15 The Italian (life) Insurance Industry case (4/8) Main Drivers competitiveness of segregated funds Over the years the share of life policies whose end-of-contract value is guaranteed has progressively grown thanks to the increase in sales of Class I and V policies These products are more attractive when Government Bonds yields are low and/or decreasing Net premium income Class I and V (mn ; lhs) 3-months BOT yield (rhs) 5,00% 4,00% ,00% 0 2,00% (5.000) 1,00% (10.000) mar-06 giu-06 set-06 dic-06 mar-07 giu-07 set-07 dic-07 mar-08 giu-08 set-08 dic-08 mar-09 giu-09 set-09 dic-09 mar-10 giu-10 set-10 dic-10 mar-11 giu-11 set-11 dic-11 mar-12 giu-12 set-12 dic-12 mar-13 giu-13 set-13 dic-13 mar-14 giu-14 set-14 dic-14 0,00% Source: ANIA, Datastream 11 March
16 The Italian (life) Insurance Industry case (5/8) Main Drivers competitiveness of segregated funds Italian segregated funds allow: to manage in an efficient way the minimum return guarantees trough a conservative asset allocation 11 March
17 The Italian (life) Insurance Industry case (6/8) Main Drivers competitiveness of segregated funds Italian segregated funds allow: to get limited but stable returns 11 March
18 The Italian (life) Insurance Industry case (7/8) Main Drivers competitiveness of segregated funds Italian segregated funds allow: to reduce return volatility to a minimum 11 March
19 The Italian (life) Insurance Industry case (8/8) Main Drivers shift toward linked-type products (Class III) Some companies started to focus on products with no guarantees or less dependent on investment income Nearly 1/3 of the new business in 2014 is represented by dynamic hybrid products, which are innovative life insurance contracts combining features of traditional participating life insurance with those of unit-linked policies (1.000) (2.000) (3.000) (4.000) (5.000) Net premium income Class III (mn ; lhs) FTSE MIB index (bps; rhs) mar-06 giu-06 set-06 dic-06 mar-07 giu-07 set-07 dic-07 mar-08 giu-08 set-08 dic-08 mar-09 giu-09 set-09 dic-09 mar-10 giu-10 set-10 dic-10 mar-11 giu-11 set-11 dic-11 mar-12 giu-12 set-12 dic-12 mar-13 giu-13 set-13 dic-13 mar-14 giu-14 set-14 dic March
20 Main challenges and new business perspectives 11 March 2015
21 Main Challenges (1/2) Three Scenarios(adapted from Sigma, 2012) 1) A gradual rise of interest rate. The European economy recovers gradually thanks to national reforms and QE. Actual inflation and inflation expectations increase moderately toward 2%. We observe a gradual increase in both nominal and real interest rates. 2) A prolonged period of ultra-low interest rate QE is ineffective because overly leveraged banks and consumers opt to reduce debt rather than lending or spending it, preventing the economy from overheating. As a consequence, long-term government bond yields remain close to their current levels for the next ten years. 3) An inflation-driven surge in interest rates, CBs and in particular ECB react too slowly to prevent a rapid rise in inflation. Increasing inflation expectations lead toasharpriseinnominalbondyields. 11 March
22 Main Challenges (2/2) Istronglybelievethat scenario1isthemostlikely.itisalsothemost favorable for insurers Scenario3appears-atthemoment-tobeveryunlikelyin2-3years butneverforgetthat thistimeisdifferent isnevertrueinthelongrun EIOPA seems to be mainly concerned by scenario 2 A continuation of current low yield conditions could see some insurers exposed to this risk having problems in meeting promises to policyholders in 8-11 years (EIOPA Stress Test Report, Nov. 14) 11 March
23 New business perspectives (1/3) The Japanese experience Japan experienced a prolonged period of low interest rates that led to a number of insolvencies and prompted the industry to find new ways to cope with the situation. Japanese insurance industry shifted the focus away from traditional endowment products towards protection products, searching for an optimal mix between savings and protection products. Even if a (Japanese) scenario 2 doesn t materialize, it is worth for European insurers trying to strike the right balance between savings and protection, with a fast growing emphasis on the latter. Demographic reasons and budget constraints for Governments urge insurer to refine the supply of protection products 11 March
24 New business perspectives (2/3) Potential solutions How to reallocate assets and new premiums in order to make minimum financial guarantees sustainable in a prolonged low interest rate scenario? Restructuring of financial guarantees embedded in withprofit products Pushing of linked- or hybrid-type products Asset reallocation: corporate and structured bonds New product features based on consumers life-cycle needs and macroeconomic scenario Consistent with the Japan experience 11 March
25 New business perspectives (3/3) Potential solutions Married life Parenthood protection gap Wealth management gap New product features based on consumers life-cycle needs Start work Income protection gap Retirement Decrease of assets gap Longevity gap 11 March
26 ALM with ultra-low interest rates -(Life) Insurance Perspective Dario Focarelli Director General ANIA Member of the Advisory Scientific Committee of the ESRB Visiting Professor, Risk Management and Insurance, 'La Sapienza' Roma Adjunct Professor, 'Tanaka Business School', Imperial College London 11 March 2015 SUERF/OeNB/BWG Conference: ALM with ultra-low interest rates
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