Open source risk vs. Proprietary risk models

Transcription

1 Disaster Risk Management in East Asia and the Pacific Distance Learning Seminar Series 2011 March 2, 2011 Open source risk vs. Proprietary risk models Charles Scawthorn Prof. (ret.), Kyoto University, Japan Visiting Scholar, University of California, Berkeley 1

2 Outline Models what they are and why we need them Proprietary vs Open Software My Basic Message Open Software, the Cathedral Cthd and the Bazaar Open Risk Software, AGORA.GEM Concluding Remarks 2 2

3 Models = Loss Estimation Mitigation 6... Policy, specific measures Estimate Losses 4. Est. Damage 3. Define / Overlay Inventory 2. Det. Hazard 3 M 7.2 M Define Scenarios 3

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5 5 No Embankment 1000 Year Return Period

6 6 With Embankment 1000 Year Return Period

7 Proprietary vs. Open source 7 7

8 Non life insurance premiums (2005) Who do the proprietary models serve? 8 Source: 8

9 My Basic Message People around the World suffer from Floods, Earthquakes, Tropical Cyclones and other hazards Understanding these Risks is the first step to reducing these Risks Science is the basis for understanding these risks Sciences of the natural environment (geology, hydrology ) Sciences of the built environment (engineering, planning ) Sciences of the social environment (economics, sociology ) Models combine information from these Sciences into knowledge we can use to reduce Risk People have a right to life, and thus to this knowledge Open models allow people to have this knowledge The rest of my talk is to tell you about Open Models 9 9

10 is any source code Open source software developed in a public, collaborative manner generally available, although perhaps under a license which users can study, change, and improve which users can redistribute in modified or unmodified form Open source software is the most prominent example of open source development is often compared to user generated content is an antonym to closed source software 10 10

11 Software Development Paradigms Cathedral = the traditional model Centralized development Roles are clearly defined. Designers (the architects) Managers Implementers (ie, programmers) Characteristics: High overhead 1997 Long development time Development based on small user group 11 11

12 Users: co developers access to source code Bazaar the more co developers the faster the development encouraged to add software, fixes, bug reports, documentation "Given enough eyeballs all bugs are shallow." (Linus's law) Early Release increases chances of finding co developers Frequent (eg, nightly) Integration decreases overhead of fixing a large number of bugs at end of the project life cycle Bimodal development (1) buggier version with more features (2) more stable tbl version with fewer features High Modularization allows parallel development Dynamic decision making structure keeps up with development, changing user needs 12 12

13 Examples of open source software Linux kernel operating system kernel based on Unix Apache HTTP web server Moodle course management system Mozilla Firefox web browser Mozilla Thunderbird e mail client OpenOffice.org office suite OpenSolaris Unix Operating System from Sun Microsystems Mediawiki wiki server software, the software that runs Wikipedia Wikipedia world s largest encyclopedia Aras Innovator Microsoft open source business process management enterprise software Drupal content management system Joomla! content management system GNU Compiler Collection Programming language compiler for C, C++, Java and other languages. phpbb open source bulletin board system Nvu open source WYSIWYG HTML editor (webpage/website builder) Audacity open source audio recording software StCAD open source 3D Framework for Smalltalk 13 13

14 Open Source movement 14 14

15 Open Source software movement Open Risk Analysis Natural hazards mitigation Earthquake Wind Flood Cost justification loss estimation 15 15

16 Loss Estimation = foundation for all risk reduction Proprietary Loss Estimation Software: may well have good technical foundations, but are not open source users can t get under the hood, don t trust results inflexible can t quickly adapt to new needs, data not being widely used not doing the job 16 16

17 In general the existing CAT modelling applications have the following issues: Limited resource, individual opinion Time Delay No option to mix and match Lloyd's Franchise Performance We wish to raise the idea of an open source catastrophe model framework... The framework should be fully open source under GNU General Public Licence We believe that the time is right to develop the concept of open source catastrophe modelling

18 Management Users / Developers Design Programming Traditional Users / Developers OpenRisk Open Users / Developers Open is the antonym of Closed Open doesn t mean Free (ie, no cost) 18 18

19 Risk related Open Software HAZARD p(h E) VULNERABILITY p(d H) Risk Engine E p(d H) p(h E) 19 19

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21 21 Mitigation Information and Risk Identification i System Global hazard database Exposure attributes Vulnerability Approximate B/C ratio optimum design 21

22 Open Risk Models GEM: The Global Earthquake Model ELER Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) 22 22

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25 Summary Proprietary models are fine for those who can afford them (finance and insurance) and whose operations require very specialized analyses The rest of the world however must have access to good science, to save lives and property Open riskmodels provide that access they serve humanity As more people p become wired, more people p will use, and help build, open risk models that serve their needs

26 Thank You salamat agora.org (AGORA) (GEM) 26 26