BPA Rider 8 Air Quality Modeling Planning Thomas C. Ho, Director Air Quality Research Laboratory Lamar University

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1 BPA Rider 8 Air Quality Modeling Planning Thomas C. Ho, Director Air Quality Research Laboratory Lamar University For SETRPC AQAC Meeting August 2, 2012

2 Phase II Rider 8 Work Plan 7 Tasks Task 1: Update Conceptual Model Task 2: Ambient Monitoring Projects Task 3: Emissions Inventories Improvement Task 4: Air Quality Modeling Planning Task 5: Local Control Strategies Task 6: Outreach Task 7: Administrative Activities 2

3 BPA Rider 8 - Task 4 Air Quality Modeling Planning Objectives/Goals 1. Provide Technical Support for an Ozone SIP Revision for BPA 2. Provide a Forum for Public Involvement in SIP Development Three Assigned Tasks 1. Take Delivery of TCEQ June 2006 Episode (5/31-7/2) - Run CAMx Using the Provided 2006 EI /WRF Files & Compare with TCEQ Results 2. Model the 2008 EI with Local Updates - Run CAMx Using the Provided 2008 EI /WRF Files and Considered as Baseline 3. Perform Modeling Sensitivities with Control Strategies - Investigate Model Sensitivity Using CAMx Tools : OSAT, APCA, or HDDM 3

4 CAMx Model Sensitivity Tools OSAT - Ozone Source Apportionment Technology - Contributions of multiple source areas, categories, and pollutant types to ozone formation APCA - Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment - Where OSAT would attribute ozone production to biogenic emissions, APCA reallocates that ozone production to the controllable portion of precursors HDDM - Higher-order Direct Decoupled Method - Provides an efficient and accurate methodology for calculating first and second order sensitivities between output concentrations and model input parameters 4

5 Rider 8 Modeling Domain 5

6 Typical CAMx Simulation Results (1-Hour Ozone for June 6 & 8, 2006) June 6, 2006 June 8,

7 OSAT: O 3 Contributions by Source Areas (Beaumont-Downtown Monitoring Station) Date: 6/6/2006 at 1:00 pm 1-Hour Ozone: 117 ppb Date: 6/8/2006 at 11:00 am 1-Hour Ozone: 74 ppb HGB 3% IC 5% BC 13% HGB 22% IC 4% BC 21% BPA 39% BPA 6% US 40% US 47% 7

8 OSAT: O 3 Contributions by BPA Source Groups (Beaumont-Downtown Monitoring Station) Date: 6/6/2006 at 1:00 pm O3 from BPA: 46 ppb Date: 6/8/2006 at 11:00 am O3 from BPA: 5 ppb Low-level points 7% Bio 13% Low-level points 3% Area 6% Bio 8% Elevated points 24% Area 9% Elevated points 50% Non-road 13% Non-road 4% On-road 17% On-road 46% 8

9 OSAT: Time Series by Source Areas Hour OSAT by Source Areas for Beaumont-Downtown Site Ozone (ppb) HGB BPA US BC IC :00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 6/04/2006 6/05/2006 6/06/2006 6/07/2006 6/08/2006 6/09/2006 6/10/2006 9

10 OSAT: Time Series by BPA Source Groups 1-Hour OSAT by Source Groups for Beaumont-Downtown Site Bio Low level points Area Non-road On-road Elevated points Ozone (ppb) :00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 0:00 12:00 6/04/2006 6/05/2006 6/06/2006 6/07/2006 6/08/2006 6/09/2006 6/10/

11 Generation of EKMA Diagrams (O3 Changes Corresponding to NOx/VOC Reductions) Peak 8-hour Ozone Isopleths (ppb) for Bakersfield Subregion - 5 August 1999 CAMx simulations will be performed to generate EKMA (Empirical Kinetics Modeling Approach) diagrams for BPA Example of an EKMA diagram Black lines are isopleths of ozone concentrations Green points indicate ozone concentrations corresponding to 25%, 50% and 75% reductions of anthropogenic emissions of NO X and VOC Percent of 1999 Anthropogenic NOx Emissions Percentage of 1999 Anthropogenic VOC Emissions Source: Reynolds S. and Blanchard C. Understanding the Effectiveness of Precursor Reductions in Lowering 8-hour Ozone Concentrations,

12 Modeling Milestones and Schedule Task 1 (1) Install and QA/QC 2006 EI September 30, 2012 (2) Validate and Compare 2006 CAMx Results October 31, 2012 Task 2 (1) Install and QA/QC 2008 EI November 30, 2012 (2) Incorporate Local Improvements December 31, 2012 (3) Model 2008 Baseline Ozone Episode January 31, 2013 Task 3 (1) Perform OSAT, APCA, HDDM April 30, 2013 (2) Assess 2008 Model Sensitivity Performance July 31, 2013 Final Report August 15,