Chemical transport modeling in support of the Denver SIP modeling

Transcription

1 Chemical transport modeling in support of the Denver SIP modeling Gabriele Pfister and David Edwards Atmospheric Chemistry Division NCAR, Boulder, CO In Collaboration with Regional Air Quality Council RAQC (Jerry Dilley) Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment CDPHE (Kevin Briggs) Environ (Ralph Morris) South Coast Air Quality Management District AQMD (Sang-Mi Lee ) U.S. EPA Region 8 (Gail Tonnesen) Atmospheric Composition REmote Sensing & Prediction Program

2 Denver/North Front Range Ozone State Implementation (SIP) Plan Denver/North Front Range = 8-hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area Areas with monitors Areas without monitors Non-attainment region Source: 2010 Air Quality Report, CDPHE

3 Denver/North Front Range Ozone State Implementation (SIP) Plan Denver/North Front Range = 8-hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area Requires photochemical modeling demonstration of attainment of proposed 2011 [2008] NAAQS (due to EPA by 08/2013) SIP Base Modeling Year: Summer 2008 Modeling work done by Environ (CAMx model) NCAR Contribution*: Modeling Domain for SIP 2008 Provide and evaluate state-of-the-art chemical boundary conditions Support in using satellite products for evaluation of SIP modeling results * Also collaboration with South Coast Air Quality Management District and EPA Region 8

4 Role of Intercontinental Pollution Inflow on Colorado Surface Ozone => Tagging Ozone and pre-cursors at lateral boundaries in WRF-Chem June 2008 Surface Ozone [ppbv] from Lateral Boundary Conditions Lateral Boundary Conditions from MOZART-4 and WRF-Chem setup (One way nested 12 and 4 km 2 ) Tagging Scheme: NO tag from specified source is traced through HC and CO oxidation and through all odd N- species (HNO3, PAN, N2O5, etc.) {Lamarque et al., 2005; Pfister et al., 2006, 2008; Emmons et al., 2010}

5 Role of Intercontinental Pollution Inflow on Colorado Surface Ozone => Tagging Ozone and pre-cursors at lateral boundaries in WRF-Chem Surface O 3 (ppbv) O 3 from Inflow (ppbv) * Boulder 20 June 10 July 2008 EPA WRF-Chem Ozone from Inflow Tagging Scheme: NO tag from specified source is traced through HC and CO oxidation and through all odd N- species (HNO3, PAN, N2O5, etc.) {Lamarque et al., 2005; Pfister et al., 2006, 2008; Emmons et al., 2010} *Mean for 06/20-07/10, Local Afternoon

6 GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATIONS MOZART-4 NCEP 2.8 x 2.8, 6-hour output, 28 levels up to 3 hpa, with SYNOZ Emissions: POET, REAS, GFED-2 MOZART-4 GEOS x 2.5, 6-hour output, 56 levels up to 2 hpa, no SYNOZ Emissions: Streets, FINN_monthly CAM-Chem offline GEOS x 0.63, 6-hour output, 56 levels up to 2 hpa, no SYNOZ Emissions: Streets, FINN_daily EVALUATION performed by Louisa Emmons (NCAR) Satellite: OMI O 3 PROF, CO and O 3, MOPITT CO, OMI NO 2 Aircraft: ARCTAS, POLARCAT Ozonesondes,... SYNOZ = synthetic stratospheric ozone tracer to constrain stratosphere-troposhere exchange of ozone

7 Altitude [km] TROPOSPHERIC OZONE PROFILE RETRIEVALS Altitude [km] AURA/OMI Metop/ - ForLi 24 vertical levels (up to 60km) 40 vertical levels (up to 40km) Max Sens. of trop. ~8 km Max Sens. of Trop. ~5km retrieval of subcolumns retrieval of subcolumns and average VMR Total Trop. Strat. Total 0-9km > 9 km Column AK { Collaboration with Xiong Liu and Kelly Chance, Harvard University } OMI/AURA overpass time 1:30 LT Column AK { Collaboration with Catherine Wespes and Cathy Clerbeaux, NCAR and LATMOS } /Metop overpass time 9:30 LT Note: OMI and O 3 not yet officially released

8 Model Model Model A priori Evaluation with O 3 O 3 Average Mixing Ratio Surface 9km June 2008 CAM-Chem AK MOZART_GEOS AK MOZART NCEP AK

9 Model Model MOZART_GEOS AK OMI and Ozone O 3 Average Mixing Ratio Surface 9 km June 2008 OMI MOZART_GEOS AK

10 O 3 Average VMR Srf- 9km [ppbv] and OMI Ozone Average Mixing Ratio Surface - 9km Zonal Average over W Latitude 25-35N Latitude 35-50N OMI OMI CAM-Chem MOZART-GEOS5 v v Time [Days in June 2008]

11 Pressure [mbar] O 3 Average VMR Srf- 9km [ppbv] Ozone Sondes Trinidad Head June profiles and OMI Ozone Average Mixing Ratio Surface - 9km Zonal Average over W Latitude 25-35N Latitude 35-50N OMI OMI CAM-Chem MOZART-GEOS5 v v Time [Days in June 2008]

12 Altitude [km] Evaluation with O 3 Vertical and Temporal Variation CAM-Chem AK MOZART_GEOS AK Days in June 2008 Ozone [ppbv]

13 Evaluation CO Column MOPITT V5 Multispectral Retrieval NCAR Monthly Mean CO Column June 2008 MOPITT FORli retrieval Cathy Clerbeaux (LATMOS) Daily CO Column 1-30 June 2008 MOZART_GEOS_AK MOZART_GEOS_AK 1e16 molec/cm2 Average for June 2008

14 Next Steps Complete Global Model/BC Evaluation for entire SIP modeling period (May August 2008) Continued Research on BC influence on surface AQ for target regions intercontinental transport plus other regional issues such as transport of emissions from gas exploration in Wyoming Provide Improved Boundary Conditions through data assimilation

15 Considerations & Lessons (being) Learned Research Language Language of Policy Makers and AQ Managers SIPS Modeling follows tight timelines for deliverables little time for research on the side Often [SIPS] modeling is done by private industry we do not want to appear as competition Provided tools/data need to be efficient, easy to use, low computational needs, etc.